Adaptive plasticity and niche expansion in an invasive thistle

Phenotypic differentiation in size and fecundity between native and invasive populations of a species has been suggested as a causal driver of invasion in plants. Local adaptation to novel environmental conditions through a micro‐evolutionary response to natural selection may lead to phenotypic differentiation and fitness advantages in the invaded range. Local adaptation may occur along a stress tolerance trade‐off, favoring individuals that, in benign conditions, shift resource allocation from stress tolerance to increased vigor and fecundity and, therefore, invasiveness. Alternately, the typically disturbed invaded range may select for a plastic, generalist strategy, making phenotypic plasticity the main driver of invasion success. To distinguish between these hypotheses, we performed a field common garden and tested for genetically based phenotypic differentiation, resource allocation shifts in response to water limitation, and local adaptation to the environmental gradient which describes the source locations for native and invasive populations of diffuse knapweed (Centaurea diffusa). Plants were grown in an experimental field in France (naturalized range) under water addition and limitation conditions. After accounting for phenotypic variation arising from environmental differences among collection locations, we found evidence of genetic variation between the invasive and native populations for most morphological and life‐history traits under study. Invasive C. diffusa populations produced larger, later maturing, and therefore potentially fitter individuals than native populations. Evidence for local adaptation along a resource allocation trade‐off for water limitation tolerance is equivocal. However, native populations do show evidence of local adaptation to an environmental gradient, a relationship which is typically not observed in the invaded range. Broader analysis of the climatic niche inhabited by the species in both ranges suggests that the physiological tolerances of C. diffusa may have expanded in the invaded range. This observation could be due to selection for plastic, “general‐purpose” genotypes with broad environmental tolerances.     

A phylogenetic analysis of the British flora sheds light on the evolutionary and ecological factors driving plant invasions

Darwin's naturalization hypothesis predicts that invasive species should perform better in their novel range in the absence of close relatives in the native flora due to reduced competition. Evidence from recent taxonomic and phylogenetic‐based studies, however, is equivocal. We test Darwin's naturalization hypothesis at two different spatial scales using a fossil‐dated molecular phylogenetic tree of the British native and alien flora (ca. 1600 species) and extensive, fine‐scale survey data from the 1998 Countryside Survey. At both landscape and local scales, invasive species were neither significantly more nor less related to the native flora than their non‐invasive alien counterparts. Species invasiveness was instead correlated with higher nitrogen and moisture preference, but not other life history traits such as life‐form and height. We argue that invasive species spread in Britain is hence more likely determined by changes in land use and other anthropogenic factors, rather than evolutionary history. Synthesis. The transition from non‐invasive to invasive is not related to phylogenetic distinctiveness to the native community, but instead to their environmental preferences. Therefore, combating biological invasions in the Britain and other industrialized countries need entirely different strategies than in more natural environments.     

Using a climatic niche model to predict the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the distribution of Douglas‐fir in New Zealand

Climate change is likely to have major impacts on the distribution of planted and natural forests. Herein, we demonstrate how a process‐based niche model (CLIMEX) can be extended to globally project the potential habitat suitable for Douglas‐fir. Within this distribution, we use CLIMEX to predict abundance of the pathogen P haeocryptopus gaeumannii and severity of its associated foliage disease, Swiss needle cast. The distribution and severity of the disease, which can strongly reduce growth rate of Douglas‐fir, is closely correlated with seasonal temperatures and precipitation. This model is used to project how climate change during the 2080s may alter the area suitable for Douglas‐fir plantations within New Zealand. The climate change scenarios used indicate that the land area suitable for Douglas‐fir production in the North Island will be reduced markedly from near 100% under current climate to 36–64% of the total land area by 2080s. Within areas shown to be suitable for the host in the North Island, four of the six climate change scenarios predict substantial increases in disease severity that will make these regions at best marginal for Douglas‐fir by the 2080s. In contrast, most regions in the South Island are projected to sustain relatively low levels of disease, and remain suitable for Douglas‐fir under climate change over the course of this century.