Buffalo, bush meat, and the zoonotic threat of brucellosis in Botswana

Background

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease of global importance infecting humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. Little is known about the epidemiology and persistence of brucellosis in wildlife in Southern Africa, particularly in Botswana.

Methods

Archived wildlife samples from Botswana (1995–2000) were screened with the Rose Bengal Test (RBT) and fluorescence polarization assay (FPA) and included the African buffalo (247), bushbuck (1), eland (5), elephant (25), gemsbok (1), giraffe (9), hartebeest (12), impala (171), kudu (27), red lechwe (10), reedbuck (1), rhino (2), springbok (5), steenbok (2), warthog (24), waterbuck (1), wildebeest (33), honey badger (1), lion (43), and zebra (21). Human case data were extracted from government annual health reports (1974–2006).

Findings

Only buffalo (6%, 95% CI 3.04%–8.96%) and giraffe (11%, 95% CI 0–38.43%) were confirmed seropositive on both tests. Seropositive buffalo were widely distributed across the buffalo range where cattle density was low. Human infections were reported in low numbers with most infections (46%) occurring in children (<14 years old) and no cases were reported among people working in the agricultural sector.

Conclusions

Low seroprevalence of brucellosis in Botswana buffalo in a previous study in 1974 and again in this survey suggests an endemic status of the disease in this species. Buffalo, a preferred source of bush meat, is utilized both legally and illegally in Botswana. Household meat processing practices can provide widespread pathogen exposure risk to family members and the community, identifying an important source of zoonotic pathogen transmission potential. Although brucellosis may be controlled in livestock populations, public health officials need to be alert to the possibility of human infections arising from the use of bush meat. This study illustrates the need for a unified approach in infectious disease research that includes consideration of both domestic and wildlife sources of infection in determining public health risks from zoonotic disease invasions.     

A stakeholder-informed approach to the identification of criteria for the prioritization of zoonoses in Canada

Background

Zoonotic diseases account for over 60% of all communicable diseases causing illness in humans and 75% of recently emerging infectious diseases. As limited resources are available for the control and prevention of zoonotic diseases, it is necessary to prioritize diseases in order to direct resources into those with the greatest needs. The selection of criteria for prioritization has traditionally been on the basis of expert opinion; however, details of the methods used to identify criteria from expert opinion often are not published and a full range of criteria may not be captured by expert opinion.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This study used six focus groups to identify criteria for the prioritization of zoonotic diseases in Canada. Focus groups included people from the public, animal health professionals and human health professionals. A total of 59 criteria were identified for prioritizing zoonotic diseases. Human-related criteria accounted for the highest proportion of criteria identified (55%), followed by animal-related criteria (26%) then pathogen/disease-related criteria (19%).Similarities and differences were observed in the identification and scoring of criteria for disease prioritization between groups; the public groups were strongly influenced by the individual-level of disease burden, the responsibility of the scientific community in disease prioritization and the experiences of recent events while the professional groups were influenced by the societal- and population-level of disease burden and political and public pressure.

Conclusions/Significance

This was the first study to describe a mixed semi-quantitative and qualitative approach to deriving criteria for disease prioritization. This was also the first study to involve the opinion of the general public regarding disease prioritization. The number of criteria identified highlights the difficulty in prioritizing zoonotic diseases. The method presented in this paper has formulated a comprehensive list of criteria that can be used to inform future disease prioritization studies.     

Long term sequelae from childhood pneumonia; systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The risks of long term sequelae from childhood pneumonia have not been systematically assessed. The aims of this study were to: (i) estimate the risks of respiratory sequelae after pneumonia in children under five years; (ii) estimate the distribution of the different types of respiratory sequelae; and (iii) compare sequelae risk by hospitalisation status and pathogen.

Methods

We systematically reviewed published papers from 1970 to 2011. Standard global burden of disease categories (restrictive lung disease, obstructive lung disease, bronchiectasis) were labelled as major sequelae. ‘Minor’ sequelae (chronic bronchitis, asthma, other abnormal pulmonary function, other respiratory disease), and multiple impairments were also included. Thirteen papers were selected for inclusion. Synthesis was by random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression.

Results

Risk of at least one major sequelae was 5.5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 2.8–8.3%) in non hospitalised children and 13.6% [6.2–21.1%]) in hospitalised children. Adenovirus pneumonia was associated with the highest sequelae risk (54.8% [39.2–70.5%]) but children hospitalised with no pathogen isolated also had high risk (17.6% [10.9–24.3%]). The most common type of major sequela was restrictive lung disease (5.4% [2.5–10.2%]) . Potential confounders such as loss to follow up and median age at infection were not associated with sequelae risk in the final models.

Conclusions

All children with pneumonia diagnosed by a health professional should be considered at risk of long term sequelae. Evaluation of childhood pneumonia interventions should include potential impact on long term respiratory sequelae.     

Associated factors for falls among the community-dwelling older people assessed by annual geriatric health examinations

Background

Falls are very common among the older people. Nearly one-third older people living in a community fall each year. However, few studies have examined factors associated with falls in a community-dwelling population of older Taiwanese adults.

Objectives

To identify the associated factors for falls during the previous 12 months among the community-dwelling Taiwanese older people receiving annual geriatric health examinations.

Participants

People aged sixty-five years or older, living in the community, assessed by annual geriatric health examinations

Methods

1377 community-dwellers aged ≥65 years who received annual geriatric health examinations at one hospital in northern Taiwan between March and November of 2008. They were asked about their history of falls during the year prior to their most recent health examination.

Results

The average age of the 1377 participants was 74.9±6.8 years, 48.9% of which were women. Three-hundred and thirteen of the participants (22.7%) had at least one fall during the previous year. Multivariate analysis showed that odds ratio for the risk of falling was 1.94 (95% CI 1.36-2.76) when the female gender group is compared with the male gender group. The adjusted odds ratios of age and waist circumference were 1.03 (95% CI 1.00–1.06) and 1.03 (95% CI 1.01–1.05) respectively. The adjusted odds ratios of visual acuity, Karnofsky scale, and serum albumin level were 0.34 (95% CI 0.15–0.76), 0.94 (95% CI 0.89–0.98), and 0.37 (95% CI 0.18–0.76) respectively. Larger waist circumference, older age, female gender, poorer visual acuity, lower score on the Karnofsky Performance Scale, and lower serum albumin level were the independent associated factors for falls.

Conclusion

In addition to other associated factors, waist circumference should be included as a novel risk factor for falls.     

The burden of selected chronic non-communicable diseases and their risk factors in Malawi: nationwide STEPS survey

Background

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are becoming significant causes of morbidity and mortality, particularly in sub-Saharan African countries, although local, high-quality data to inform evidence-based policies are lacking.

Objectives

To determine the magnitude of NCDs and their risk factors in Malawi.

Methods

Using the WHO STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance, a population-based, nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted between July and September 2009 on participants aged 25–64 years. Socio-demographic and behaviour risk factors were collected in Step 1. Physical anthropometric measurements and blood pressure were documented in Step 2. Blood cholesterol and fasting blood glucose were measured in Step 3.

Results and Conclusion

A total of 5,206 adults (67% females) were surveyed. Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and raised blood pressure (BP) were more frequent in males than females, 25% vs 3%, 30% vs 4% and 37% vs 29%. Overweight, physical inactivity and raised cholesterol were more common in females than males, 28% vs 16%, 13% vs 6% and 11% vs 6%. Tobacco smoking was more common in rural than urban areas 11% vs 7%, and overweight and physical inactivity more common in urban than rural areas 39% vs 22% and 24% vs 9%, all with p<0.05. Overall (both sexes) prevalence of tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, overweight and physical inactivity was 14%, 17%, 22%, 10% and prevalence of raised BP, fasting blood sugar and cholesterol was 33%, 6% and 9% respectively. These data could be useful in the formulation and advocacy of NCD policy and action plan in Malawi.     

Tuberculosis contact screening and isoniazid preventive therapy in a South Indian district: operational issues for programmatic consideration

Background

Under India''s Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP), all household contacts of sputum smear positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) patients are screened for TB. In the absence of active TB disease, household contacts aged <6 years are eligible for Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) (5 milligrams/kilogram body weight/day) for 6 months.

Objectives

To estimate the number of household contacts aged <6 years, of sputum smear positive PTB patients registered for treatment under RNTCP from April to June''2008 in Krishna District, to assess the extent to which they are screened for TB disease and in its absence initiated on IPT.

Methods

A cross sectional study was conducted. Households of all smear positive PTB cases (n = 848) registered for treatment from April to June''2008 were included. Data on the number of household contacts aged <6 years, the extent to which they were screened for TB disease, and the status of initiation of IPT, was collected.

Results

Households of 825 (97%) patients were visited, and 172 household contacts aged <6 years were identified. Of them, 116 (67%) were evaluated for TB disease; none were found to be TB diseased and 97 (84%) contacts were initiated on IPT and 19 (16%) contacts were not initiated on IPT due to shortage of INH tablets in peripheral health centers. The reasons for non-evaluation of the remaining eligible children (n = 56, 33%) include no home visit by the health staff in 25 contacts, home visit done but not evaluated in 31 contacts. House-hold contacts in rural areas were less likely to be evaluated and initiated on IPT [risk ratio 6.65 (95% CI; 3.06–14.42)].

Conclusion

Contact screening and IPT implementation under routine programmatic conditions is sub-optimal. There is an urgent need to sensitize all concerned programme staff on its importance and establishment of mechanisms for rigorous monitoring.     

Secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in urban households in Kampala, Uganda

Background

Tuberculosis is an ancient disease that continues to threaten individual and public health today, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Current surveillance systems describe general risk of tuberculosis in a population but do not characterize the risk to an individual following exposure to an infectious case.

Methods

In a study of household contacts of infectious tuberculosis cases (n = 1918) and a community survey of tuberculosis infection (N = 1179) in Kampala, Uganda, we estimated the secondary attack rate for tuberculosis disease and tuberculosis infection. The ratio of these rates is the likelihood of progressive primary disease after recent household infection.

Results

The secondary attack rate for tuberculosis disease was 3.0% (95% confidence interval: 2.2, 3.8). The overall secondary attack rate for tuberculosis infection was 47.4 (95% confidence interval: 44.3, 50.6) and did not vary widely with age, HIV status or BCG vaccination. The risk for progressive primary disease was highest among the young or HIV infected and was reduced by BCG vaccination.

Conclusions

Early case detection and treatment may limit household transmission of M. tuberculosis. Household members at high risk for disease should be protected through vaccination or treatment of latent tuberculosis infection.     

Impact of rapid urbanization on the rates of infection by Vibrio cholerae O1 and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Background

In Bangladesh, increases in cholera epidemics are being documented with a greater incidence and severity. The aim of this prospective study was to identify the prevalence and importance of V. cholerae O1 and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) as causal agents of severe diarrhea in a high diarrhea prone urban area in Dhaka city.

Methodology

Systematic surveillance was carried out on all diarrheal patients admitted from Mirpur between March 2008 to February 2010 at the ICDDR, B hospital. Stool or rectal swabs were collected from every third diarrheal patient for microbiological evaluation.

Principal Findings

Of diarrheal patients attending the hospital from Mirpur, 41% suffered from severe dehydration with 39% requiring intravenous rehydration therapy. More diarrheal patients were above five years of age (64%) than those below five years of age (36%). About 60% of the patients above five years of age had severe dehydration compared with only 9% of patients under five years of age. The most prevalent pathogen isolated was Vibrio cholerae O1 (23%) followed by ETEC (11%). About 8% of cholera infection was seen in infants with the youngest children being one month of age while in the case of ETEC the rate was 11%. Of the isolated ETEC strains, the enterotoxin type were almost equally distributed; ST accounted for 31% of strains; LT/ST for 38% and LT for 31%.

Conclusion

V. cholerae O1 is the major bacterial pathogen and a cause of severe cholera disease in 23% of patients from Mirpur. This represents a socioeconomic group that best reflects the major areas of high cholera burden in the country. Vaccines that can target such high risk groups in the country and the region will hopefully be able to reduce the disease morbidity and the transmission of pathogens that impact the life and health of people.     

Hypertension in women of reproductive age in the United States: NHANES 1999-2008

Objective

To examine the epidemiology of hypertension in women of reproductive age.

Methods

Using NHANES from 1999–2008, we identified 5,521 women age 20–44 years old. Hypertension status was determined using blood pressure measurements and/or self-reported medication use.

Results

The estimated prevalence of hypertension in women of reproductive age was 7.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9%–8.5%). The prevalence of anti-hypertensive pharmacologic therapy was 4.2% (95% CI 3.5%–4.9%). The prevalence of hypertension was relatively stable across the study period; the age and race adjusted odds of hypertension in 2007–2008 did not differ significantly from 1999–2000 (odds ratio 1.2, CI 0.8 to 1.7, p = 0.45). Significant independent risk factors associated with hypertension included older age, non-Hispanic black race (compared to non-Hispanic whites), diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, and higher body mass index. The most commonly used antihypertensive medications included diuretics, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE), and beta blockers.

Conclusion

Hypertension occurs in about 8% of women of reproductive age. There are remarkable differences in the prevalence of hypertension between racial/ethnic groups. Obesity is a risk factor of particular importance in this population because it affects over 30% of young women in the U.S., is associated with more than 4 fold increased risk of hypertension, and is potentially modifiable.     

Extracting diagnoses and investigation results from unstructured text in electronic health records by semi-supervised machine learning

Background

Electronic health records are invaluable for medical research, but much of the information is recorded as unstructured free text which is time-consuming to review manually.

Aim

To develop an algorithm to identify relevant free texts automatically based on labelled examples.

Methods

We developed a novel machine learning algorithm, the ‘Semi-supervised Set Covering Machine’ (S3CM), and tested its ability to detect the presence of coronary angiogram results and ovarian cancer diagnoses in free text in the General Practice Research Database. For training the algorithm, we used texts classified as positive and negative according to their associated Read diagnostic codes, rather than by manual annotation. We evaluated the precision (positive predictive value) and recall (sensitivity) of S3CM in classifying unlabelled texts against the gold standard of manual review. We compared the performance of S3CM with the Transductive Vector Support Machine (TVSM), the original fully-supervised Set Covering Machine (SCM) and our ‘Freetext Matching Algorithm’ natural language processor.

Results

Only 60% of texts with Read codes for angiogram actually contained angiogram results. However, the S3CM algorithm achieved 87% recall with 64% precision on detecting coronary angiogram results, outperforming the fully-supervised SCM (recall 78%, precision 60%) and TSVM (recall 2%, precision 3%). For ovarian cancer diagnoses, S3CM had higher recall than the other algorithms tested (86%). The Freetext Matching Algorithm had better precision than S3CM (85% versus 74%) but lower recall (62%).

Conclusions

Our novel S3CM machine learning algorithm effectively detected free texts in primary care records associated with angiogram results and ovarian cancer diagnoses, after training on pre-classified test sets. It should be easy to adapt to other disease areas as it does not rely on linguistic rules, but needs further testing in other electronic health record datasets.     

Dog bites in humans and estimating human rabies mortality in rabies endemic areas of Bhutan

Background

Dog bites in humans are a public health problem worldwide. The issues of increasing stray dog populations, rabies outbreaks, and the risk of dogs biting humans have been frequently reported by the media in Bhutan. This study aimed to estimate the bite incidence and identify the risk factors for dog bites in humans, and to estimate human deaths from rabies in rabies endemic south Bhutan.

Methods

A hospital-based questionnaire survey was conducted during 2009–2010 among dog bites victims who visited three hospitals in Bhutan for anti-rabies vaccine injection. Decision tree modeling was used to estimate human deaths from rabies following dog bite injuries in two rabies endemic areas of south Bhutan.

Results

Three hundred and twenty four dog bite victims were interviewed. The annual incidence of dog bites differed between the hospital catchment areas: 869.8 (95% CI: 722.8–1022.5), 293.8 (240–358.2) and 284.8 (251.2–323) per 100,000 people in Gelephu, Phuentsholing and Thimphu, respectively. Males (62%) were more at risk than females (P<0.001). Children aged 5–9 years were bitten more than other age groups. The majority of victims (71%) were bitten by stray dogs. No direct fatal injury was reported. In two hospital areas (Gelephu and Phuentsholing) in south Bhutan the annual incidence of death from rabies was 3.14 (95% CI: 1.57–6.29) per 100,000 population. The decision tree model predicted an equivalent annual incidence of 4.67 (95% CI: 2.53–7.53) deaths/100,000 population at risk. In the absence of post exposure prophylaxis, the model predicted 19.24 (95% CI: 13.69–25.14) deaths/year in these two areas.

Conclusions

Increased educational awareness of people about the risk of dog bites and rabies is necessary, particularly for children in rabies endemic areas of Bhutan.     

The prevalence of natural health product use in patients with acute cardiovascular disease

Background

Natural health products (NHP) use may have implications with respect to adverse effects, drug interactions and adherence yet the prevalence of NHP use by patients with acute cardiovascular disease and the best method to ascertain this information is unknown.

Objective

To identify the best method to ascertain information on NHP, and the prevalence of use in a population with acute cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Structured interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of consecutive patients admitted with acute cardiovascular disease to the University of Alberta Hospital during January 2009. NHP use was explored using structured and open-ended questions based on Health Canada''s definition of NHP. The medical record was reviewed, and documentation of NHP use by physicians, nurses, and pharmacists, compared against the gold-standard structured interview.

Results

88 patients were interviewed (mean age 62 years, standard deviation [SD 14]; 80% male; 41% admitted for acute coronary syndromes). Common co-morbidities included hypertension (59%), diabetes (26%) and renal impairment (19%). NHP use was common (78% of patients) and 75% of NHP users reported daily use. The category of NHP most commonly used was vitamins and minerals (73%) followed by herbal products (20%), traditional medicines including Chinese medicines (9%), homeopathic preparations (1%) and other products including amino acids, essential fatty acids and probiotics (35%). In a multivariable model, only older age was associated with increased NHP use (OR 1.5 per age decile [95%CI 1.03 to 2.2]). When compared to the interview, the highest rate of NHP documentation was the pharmacist history (41%). NHP were documented in 22% of patients by the physician and 19% by the nurse.

Conclusions

NHP use is common in patients admitted with acute cardiovascular disease. However, health professionals do not commonly identify NHP as part of the medication profile despite its potential importance. Structured interview appears to be the best method to accurately identify patient use of NHP.     

Prevalence of PTSD and Depression among Junior Middle School Students in a Rural Town Far from the Epicenter of the Wenchuan Earthquake in China

Context

On May12^th 2008, a devastating earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale, struck Wenchuan county and surrounding areas in China. The prevalence of mental illness among children and adolescents in a rural town far from the earthquake epicenter is unknown.

Objective

To assess the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression among junior middle school students in a rural town Ningqiang county, 327 km from the earthquake epicenter.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A population-based mental health survey was conducted in March, 2009.

Main Outcome Measure

Survey Self-designed General Condition Survey Scale, Children''s Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13), and the Depression Self-rating Scale for Children (DSRSC) were used to sample 1,841 junior middle school students in Ningqiang county, ten months after the Wenchuan earthquake.

Results

The prevalence rate of a high-risk for PTSD was 28.4%, with 32.7% among females, 23.8% among males (female vs. male, p<0.001), 38.6% in the severe exposure group and 24.3% in the mild exposure group (severe vs. mild exposure, p<0.001). For depressive symptoms, the overall prevalence was 19.5%, with 24.0% among females, 14.7% among males, 24.5% in the severe exposure group and 17.5% in the mild exposure group (female vs. male, p<0.001; severe vs. mild exposure, p<0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, factors such as “having felt despair”, or “danger” and “having own house destroyed or damaged” were significantly associated with PTSD symptoms. Female gender and delayed evacuation in females, and earthquake related experiences in males were significantly associated with depression.

Conclusion

Traumatic events experienced during the earthquake were significantly associated with symptoms of PTSD and depression in children and adolescents, ten months after the Wenchuan earthquake. These data highlight a need for mental health services for children and adolescents in rural areas, far from earthquake epicenters.     

Actigraph accelerometer-defined boundaries for sedentary behaviour and physical activity intensities in 7 year old children

Background

Accurate objective assessment of sedentary and physical activity behaviours during childhood is integral to the understanding of their relation to later health outcomes, as well as to documenting the frequency and distribution of physical activity within a population.

Purpose

To calibrate the Actigraph GT1M accelerometer, using energy expenditure (EE) as the criterion measure, to define thresholds for sedentary behaviour and physical activity categories suitable for use in a large scale epidemiological study in young children.

Methods

Accelerometer-based assessments of physical activity (counts per minute) were calibrated against EE measures (kcal.kg⁻¹.hr⁻¹) obtained over a range of exercise intensities using a COSMED K4b² portable metabolic unit in 53 seven-year-old children. Children performed seven activities: lying down viewing television, sitting upright playing a computer game, slow walking, brisk walking, jogging, hopscotch and basketball. Threshold count values were established to identify sedentary behaviour and light, moderate and vigorous physical activity using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

EE was significantly associated with counts for all non-sedentary activities with the exception of jogging. Threshold values for accelerometer counts (counts.minute⁻¹) were <100 for sedentary behaviour and ≤2240, ≤3840 and ≥3841 for light, moderate and vigorous physical activity respectively. The area under the ROC curves for discrimination of sedentary behaviour and vigorous activity were 0.98. Boundaries for light and moderate physical activity were less well defined (0.61 and 0.60 respectively). Sensitivity and specificity were higher for sedentary (99% and 97%) and vigorous (95% and 91%) than for light (60% and 83%) and moderate (61% and 76%) thresholds.

Conclusion

The accelerometer cut points established in this study can be used to classify sedentary behaviour and to distinguish between light, moderate and vigorous physical activity in children of this age.     

A controlled trial of the knowledge impact of tuberculosis information leaflets among staff supporting substance misusers: pilot study

Background

Information leaflets are widely used to increase awareness and knowledge of disease. Limited research has, to date, been undertaken to evaluate the efficacy of these information resources. This pilot study sought to determine whether information leaflets developed specifically for staff working with substance mis-users improved knowledge of tuberculosis (TB).

Method

Staffs working with individuals affected by substance mis-use were recruited between January and May 2008. All participants were subjectively allocated by their line manager either to receive the TB-specific leaflet or a control leaflet providing information on mental health. Level of knowledge of TB was assessed using questionnaires before and after the intervention and data analysed using McNemar''s exact test for matched pairs.

Results

The control group showed no evidence of a change in knowledge of TB, whereas the TB questionnaire group demonstrated a significant increase in knowledge including TB being curable (81% correct before to 100% correct after), length of treatment required (42% before to 73% after), need to support direct observation (18% to 62%) and persistent fever being a symptom (56% to 87%). Among key workers, who have a central role in implementing a care plan, 88% reported never receiving any TB awareness-raising intervention prior to this study, despite 11% of all respondents having TB diagnosed among their clients.

Conclusion

Further randomized controlled trials are required to confirm the observed increase in short-term gain in knowledge and to investigate whether knowledge gain leads to change in health status.     

Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a Delphi survey

Background

Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform.

Methods and Findings

A Delphi survey was conducted with malaria experts aiming to reach consensus on key parameters for public health and economic models, relating to the outcome of untreated febrile illnesses. Survey questions were stratified by malaria transmission intensity, patient age, and HIV prevalence. The impact of the variability in opinion on decision models is illustrated with a model previously used to assess the cost-effectiveness of malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Some consensus was reached around the probability that patients from higher transmission settings with untreated malaria would progress to severe disease (median 3%, inter-quartile range (IQR) 1–5%), and the probability that a non-malaria illness required antibiotics in areas of low HIV prevalence (median 20%). Children living in low transmission areas were considered to be at higher risk of progressing to severe malaria (median 30%, IQR 10–58%) than those from higher transmission areas (median 13%, IQR 7–30%). Estimates of the probability of dying from severe malaria were high in all settings (medians 60–73%). However, opinions varied widely for most parameters, and did not converge on resurveying.

Conclusions

This study highlights the uncertainty around potential consequences of untreated malaria and bacterial illnesses. The lack of consensus on most parameters, the wide range of estimates, and the impact of variability in estimates on model outputs, demonstrate the importance of sensitivity analysis for decision models employing expert opinion. Results of such models should be interpreted cautiously. The diversity of expert opinion should be recognised when policy options are debated.     

Risk behaviors for reproductive tract infection in women who have sex with women in Beijing, China

Objectives

To assess risk behaviors for reproductive tract infections (RTI) including sexually transmitted infections (STI) among women who have sex with women (WSW) in Beijing, China.

Methods

A cross-sectional study of women recruited from venues and internet outreach analyzed using interviews.

Results

We recruited 224 WSW, among whom were 37 couples. The average age of participants was 25.6 years. Sex with men in the past year was reported by 10.7% of participants. During the past year, 34.3% (77/224) had had >1 sexual partner and 72.4% (162/224) had ever had >1 sexual partner. Condom use in the last sex with a man was reported by 54.2% (13/24) of women; 12.5% (3/24) reported never having used a condom with a man in the past year. In the past year, 13.4% (30/224) reported using sex toys with their female partners; of these, 43.3% (13/30) reported consistent condom use with the sex toys and 36.7% (11/30) had shared sex toys. Among participants 65.2% (120/184) reported that their “G-spot” had been stimulated during sex, 49.2% (59/120) of whom reported bleeding during or after sex. Only 12.5% (8/64) of those never reporting “G spot” stimulation reported bleeding during or after sex (P<0.001).

Conclusions

WSW in Beijing engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors that may carry a substantial risk of being infected with STI/RTI. To implement STI/RTI prevention and intervention among women, women-women sexual behavior should be considered when doing research and intervention programs.     

Socioeconomic status and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: data from the Women's Health Study

Objectives

We prospectively examined whether socioeconomic status (SES) predicts incident type II diabetes (diabetes), a cardiovascular risk equivalent and burgeoning public health epidemic among women.

Methods

Participants include 23,992 women with Hb_A1c levels <6% and no CVD or diabetes at baseline followed from February 1993 to March 2007. SES was measured by education and income while diabetes was self-reported.

Results

Over 12.3 years of follow-up, 1,262 women developed diabetes. In age and race adjusted models, the relative risk of diabetes decreased with increasing education (<2 years of nursing, 2 to <4 years of nursing, bachelor''s degree, master''s degree, and doctorate: 1.0, 0.7 [95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.6–0.8], 0.6 (95% CI, 0.5–0.7), 0.5 (95% CI, 0.4–0.6), 0.4 (95% CI, 0.3–0.5); p_trend<0.001). Adjustment for traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors attenuated this relationship (education: p_trend = 0.96). Similar associations were observed between income categories and diabetes.

Conclusion

Advanced education and increasing income were both inversely associated with incident diabetes even in this relatively well-educated cohort. This relationship was largely explained by behavioral factors, particularly body mass index.