Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

BackgroundDespite dengue dynamics being driven by complex interactions between human hosts, mosquito vectors and viruses that are influenced by climate factors, an operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk in a dengue non-endemic area has not been developed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the temporal relationship between meteorological variables, entomological surveillance indices and confirmed dengue cases; and to establish the threshold for entomological surveillance indices including three mosquito larval indices [Breteau (BI), Container (CI) and House indices (HI)] and one adult index (AI) as an early warning tool for dengue epidemic.Conclusion/SignificanceThere was little evidence of quantifiable association among vector indices, meteorological factors and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept of how to search for the optimal model and determine the threshold for dengue epidemics. Since those factors used for prediction varied, depending on the ecology and herd immunity level under different geological areas, different thresholds may be developed for different countries using a similar structure of the two-stage model.     

Entomological outcomes of cluster-randomised,community-driven dengue vector-suppression interventions in Kampong Cham province,Cambodia

Cambodia has one of the highest dengue infection rates in Southeast Asia. Here we report quantitative entomological results of a large-scale cluster-randomised trial assessing the impact on vector populations of a package of vector control interventions including larvivorous guppy fish in household water containers, mosquito trapping with gravid-ovitraps, solid waste management, breeding-container coverage through community education and engagement for behavioural change, particularly through the participation of school children. These activities resulted in major reductions in Container Index, House Index, Breteau Index, Pupal Index and Adult Index (all p-values 0.002 or lower) in the Intervention Arm compared with the Control Arm in a series of household surveys conducted over a follow-up period of more than one year, although the project was not able to measure the longer-term sustainability of the interventions. Despite comparative reductions in Adult Index between the study arms, the Adult Index was higher in the Intervention Arm in the final household survey than in the first household survey. This package of biophysical and community engagement interventions was highly effective in reducing entomological indices for dengue compared with the control group, but caution is required in extrapolating the reduction in household Adult Index to a reduction in the overall population of adult Aedes mosquitoes, and in interpreting the relationship between a reduction in entomological indices and a reduction in the number of dengue cases. The package of interventions should be trialled in other locations.     

Climate variability and Aedes vector indices in the southern Philippines: An empirical analysis

BackgroundVector surveillance is an essential public health tool to aid in the prediction and prevention of mosquito borne diseases. This study compared spatial and temporal trends of vector surveillance indices for Aedes vectors in the southern Philippines, and assessed potential links between vector indices and climate factors.MethodsWe analysed routinely collected larval and pupal surveillance data from residential areas of 14 cities and 51 municipalities during 2013–2018 (House, Container, Breteau and Pupal Indices), and used linear regression to explore potential relationships between vector indices and climate variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation).ResultsWe found substantial spatial and temporal variation in monthly Aedes vector indices between cities during the study period, and no seasonal trend apparent. The House (HI), Container (CI) and Breteau (BI) Indices remained at comparable levels across most surveys (mean HI = 15, mean CI = 16, mean BI = 24), while the Pupal Productivity Index (PPI) was relatively lower in most months (usually below 5) except for two main peak periods (mean = 49 overall). A small proportion of locations recorded high values across all entomological indices in multiple surveys. Each of the vector indices were significantly correlated with one or more climate variables when matched to data from the same month or the previous 1 or 2 months, although the effect sizes were small. Significant associations were identified between minimum temperature and HI, CI and BI in the same month (R² = 0.038, p = 0.007; R² = 0.029, p = 0.018; and R² = 0.034, p = 0.011, respectively), maximum temperature and PPI with a 2-month lag (R² = 0.031, p = 0.032), and precipitation and HI in the same month (R² = 0.023, p = 0.04).ConclusionsOur findings indicated that larval and pupal surveillance indices were highly variable, were regularly above the threshold for triggering vector control responses, and that vector indices based on household surveys were weakly yet significantly correlated with city-level climate variables. We suggest that more detailed spatial and temporal analyses of entomological, climate, socio-environmental and Aedes-borne disease incidence data are necessary to ascertain the most effective use of entomological indices in guiding vector control responses, and reduction of human disease risk.     

Deltamethrin-impregnated bednets reduce human landing rates of sandfly vector Lutzomyia longipalpis in Amazon households

The entomological efficacy of using 25% deltamethrin EC insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) was evaluated against the sandfly Lutzomyia longipalpis Lutz and Neiva (Diptera: Psychodidae), the principal vector of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) in Latin America. A crossover field study in Amazon Brazil (Marajó Island, Pará State) demonstrated that, compared with untreated nets, the insecticide increased the barrier effect of nets by 39% (95% confidence interval [CI] 34-44%), reduced human landing rates by 80% (95% CI 62-90%) and increased the 24-h mortality rate from 0% to 98% (95% CI 93-99%) inside ITNs. The presence of an ITN also reduced the human landing rate on unprotected persons outside the net in the same room by 56% (95% CI 52-59%), and increased 24-h mortality to 68% (95% CI 62-73%) compared to 0.4% (0.1-2.0%) in untreated houses. The reduction in human landing rates in ITN rooms was associated with a doubling in the proportion of sandflies alighting on walls compared with that in untreated rooms, which was attributed to insecticide-induced excito-repellency. There was no evidence that sandflies were diverted onto unprotected hosts. Human landing catches inside houses peaked between 19.00 hours and 23.00 hours and declined steadily to zero at 02.00 hours and thereafter. House-to-house questionnaires established that only 34% of households owned at least one net (median two, range 1-8), only 20% of the population slept under a net (33% of 0-5-year-old children), and the majority (73%) of the population slept in hammocks. Combined data pertaining to sleeping times for children and sandfly activity period indicate that > 50% of sandfly bites inside houses, and substantially more outside houses, were taken before a third of children were potentially protected by a net. This study demonstrates the clear entomological efficacy of ITNs against Lu. longipalpis in this endemic region. The effectiveness of ITNs at preventing ZVL infection and disease has still to be evaluated.     

A model framework to estimate impact and cost of genetics-based sterile insect methods for dengue vector control

Vector-borne diseases impose enormous health and economic burdens and additional methods to control vector populations are clearly needed. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been successful against agricultural pests, but is not in large-scale use for suppressing or eliminating mosquito populations. Genetic RIDL technology (Release of Insects carrying a Dominant Lethal) is a proposed modification that involves releasing insects that are homozygous for a repressible dominant lethal genetic construct rather than being sterilized by irradiation, and could potentially overcome some technical difficulties with the conventional SIT technology. Using the arboviral disease dengue as an example, we combine vector population dynamics and epidemiological models to explore the effect of a program of RIDL releases on disease transmission. We use these to derive a preliminary estimate of the potential cost-effectiveness of vector control by applying estimates of the costs of SIT. We predict that this genetic control strategy could eliminate dengue rapidly from a human community, and at lower expense (approximately US$ 2~30 per case averted) than the direct and indirect costs of disease (mean US$ 86-190 per case of dengue). The theoretical framework has wider potential use; by appropriately adapting or replacing each component of the framework (entomological, epidemiological, vector control bio-economics and health economics), it could be applied to other vector-borne diseases or vector control strategies and extended to include other health interventions.     

Identification of Aedes albopictus larval index thresholds in the transmission of dengue in Guangzhou,China

Entomological indices have been used to quantitatively express vector density, but the threshold of larval indices of Aedes albopictus in dengue epidemics is still undefined. We conducted a case‐control study to identify the thresholds of Aedes albopictus larval indices in dengue epidemics. Two unit levels of analysis were used: district and street. The discriminative power of the indices was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The association between the entomologic indices and dengue transmission was further explored by a logistic regression model. At the district level, there was no significant difference in the Breteau index (BI) between districts that reported cases and those did not (t=0.164, p>0.05), but the Container index (CI) did show a significant difference (t=2.028, p<0.01). The AUC (Area Under the Curve) of BI, CI, and prediction value were 0.540, 0.630, and 0.533, respectively. Predicting at the street level, the AUC of BI, CI, and prediction values were 0.684, 0.660, and 0.685, respectively, and 0.861, 0.827, and 0.867 for outbreaks. BI=5.1, CI=5.4, or prediction value =0.491were suggested to control the epidemic efficiently with the fewest resources, where BI=4.0, CI=5.1, or PRE =0.483 were suggested to achieve effectiveness.     

The value of educational messages embedded in a community-based approach to combat dengue Fever: a systematic review and meta regression analysis

Background

The effects of various dengue control measures have been investigated in previous studies. The aim of this review was to investigate the relative effectiveness (RE) of different educational messages embedded in a community-based approach on the incidence of Aedes aegypti larvae using entomological measures as outcomes.

Methods and Findings

A systematic electronic search using Medline, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library was carried out to March 2010. Previous systematic reviews were also assessed. Data concerning interventions, outcomes, effect size and study design were extracted. Basic meta-analyses were done for pooled effect size, heterogeneity and publication bias using Comprehensive Meta-analysis. Further analysis of heterogeneitity was done by multi-level modelling using MLwiN. 21 publications with 22 separate studies were included in this review. Meta-analysis of these 22 pooled studies showed an RE of 0.25 (95% CI 0.17–0.37), but with substantial heterogeneity (Cochran''s Q = 1254, df = 21, p = <0.001,). Further analysis of this heterogeneity showed that over 60% of between study variance could be explained by just two variables; whether or not studies used historic or contemporary controls and time from intervention to assessment. When analyses were restricted to those studies using contemporary control, there was a polynomial relationship between effectiveness and time to assessment. Whether or not chemicals or other control measures were used did not appear have any effect on intervention effectiveness.

Conclusion

The results suggest that such measures do appear to be effective at reducing entomological indices. However, those studies that use historical controls almost certainly overestimate the value of interventions. There is evidence that interventions are most effective some 18 to 24 months after the intervention but then subsequently decline.     

Suppression of a Field Population of Aedes aegypti in Brazil by Sustained Release of Transgenic Male Mosquitoes

The increasing burden of dengue, and the relative failure of traditional vector control programs highlight the need to develop new control methods. SIT using self-limiting genetic technology is one such promising method. A self-limiting strain of Aedes aegypti, OX513A, has already reached the stage of field evaluation. Sustained releases of OX513A Ae. aegypti males led to 80% suppression of a target wild Ae. aegypti population in the Cayman Islands in 2010. Here we describe sustained series of field releases of OX513A Ae. aegypti males in a suburb of Juazeiro, Bahia, Brazil. This study spanned over a year and reduced the local Ae. aegypti population by 95% (95% CI: 92.2%-97.5%) based on adult trap data and 81% (95% CI: 74.9-85.2%) based on ovitrap indices compared to the adjacent no-release control area. The mating competitiveness of the released males (0.031; 95% CI: 0.025-0.036) was similar to that estimated in the Cayman trials (0.059; 95% CI: 0.011 – 0.210), indicating that environmental and target-strain differences had little impact on the mating success of the OX513A males. We conclude that sustained release of OX513A males may be an effective and widely useful method for suppression of the key dengue vector Ae. aegypti. The observed level of suppression would likely be sufficient to prevent dengue epidemics in the locality tested and other areas with similar or lower transmission.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission along a Red Sea Coastline: A Longitudinal Entomological and Serological Survey in Port Sudan City

Background

Dengue is an emerging health problem in several coastlines along the Red Sea. The objective of the present work is to elucidate spatial and temporal patterns of dengue transmission in Port Sudan.

Methods/Findings

A longitudinal study with three cross-sectional surveys was carried out in upper, middle and lower class neighborhoods, from November 2008 to October 2009. Monthly, entomological surveys were followed by serological surveys in dengue vector-positive houses. Meteorological records were obtained from two weather stations in the city during the same time. Overall, 2825 houses were inspected. Aedes aegypti represented 65% (35,714/54,944) and 68% (2526/3715) of the collected larvae and pupae, respectively. Out of 4640 drinking water containers, 2297 were positive for Ae. aegypti. Clay-pots “Zeirr” followed by plastic barrels were key productive containers for pupae of dengue vector, 63% (n = 3959) and 26% (n = 1651), respectively. A total of 791 blood samples were tested using PanBio Capture/Indirect IgM ELISA. Overall, the sero-prevalence rate of dengue ranged between 3%–8% (41/791), compared to an incidence of 29–40 new cases per 10,000 (193/54886) in the same examined population. Lower and middle class neighborhoods had higher entomological indices compared with upper class ones (p<0.001). Although, dengue incidence rate was significantly lower in the middle and lower class neighborhoods (F = 73.97, d.f. = 2, p<0.001), no difference in IgM prevalence was shown. The city is subject to two transmission peaks in the winter (i.e. November–January), and summer (i.e. June–August). The serological peaks of dengue are preceded by entomological peaks that occur before the onset of winter (November) and summer (March) respectively.

Conclusion

Dengue incidence is heterogeneously distributed across the neighborhoods of Port Sudan and exhibits a bi-cyclic intra-annual pattern. Hence, it should be feasible to carry out timely vector control measures to prevent or reduce dengue transmission.     

Community-Effectiveness of Temephos for Dengue Vector Control: A Systematic Literature Review

The application of the organophosphate larvicide temephos to water storage containers is one of the most commonly employed dengue vector control methods. This systematic literature review is to the knowledge of the authors the first that aims to assess the community-effectiveness of temephos in controlling both vectors and dengue transmission when delivered either as a single intervention or in combination with other interventions. A comprehensive literature search of 6 databases was performed (PubMed, WHOLIS, GIFT, CDSR, EMBASE, Wiley), grey literature and cross references were also screened for relevant studies. Data were extracted and methodological quality of the studies was assessed independently by two reviewers. 27 studies were included in this systematic review (11 single intervention studies and 16 combined intervention studies). All 11 single intervention studies showed consistently that using temephos led to a reduction in entomological indices. Although 11 of the 16 combined intervention studies showed that temephos application together with other chemical vector control methods also reduced entomological indices, this was either not sustained over time or–as in the five remaining studies—failed to reduce the immature stages. The community-effectiveness of temephos was found to be dependent on factors such as quality of delivery, water turnover rate, type of water, and environmental factors such as organic debris, temperature and exposure to sunlight. Timing of temephos deployment and its need for reapplication, along with behavioural factors such as the reluctance of its application to drinking water, and operational aspects such as cost, supplies, time and labour were further limitations identified in this review. In conclusion, when applied as a single intervention, temephos was found to be effective at suppressing entomological indices, however, the same effect has not been observed when temephos was applied in combination with other interventions. There is no evidence to suggest that temephos use is associated with reductions in dengue transmission.     

Validation of the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Evidence from the national vector control program in Mexico

BackgroundDuring 2017, twenty health districts (locations) implemented a dengue outbreak Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) in Mexico, which processes epidemiological, meteorological and entomological alarm indicators to predict dengue outbreaks and triggers early response activities.Out of the 20 priority districts where more than one fifth of all national disease transmission in Mexico occur, eleven districts were purposely selected and analyzed. Nine districts presented outbreak alarms by EWARS but without subsequent outbreaks (“non-outbreak districts”) and two presented alarms with subsequent dengue outbreaks (“outbreak districts”). This evaluation study assesses and compares the impact of alarm-informed response activities and the consequences of failing a timely and adequate response across the outbreak groups.MethodsFive indicators of dengue outbreak response (larval control, entomological studies with water container interventions, focal spraying and indoor residual spraying) were quantitatively analyzed across two groups (”outbreak districts” and “non-outbreak districts”). However, for quality control purposes, only qualitative concluding remarks were derived from the fifth response indicator (fogging).ResultsThe average coverage of vector control responses was significantly higher in non-outbreak districts and across all four indicators. In the “outbreak districts” the response activities started late and were of much lower intensity compared to “non-outbreak districts”. Vector control teams at districts-level demonstrated diverse levels of compliance with local guidelines for ‘initial’, ‘early’ and ‘late’ responses to outbreak alarms, which could potentially explain the different outcomes observed following the outbreak alarms.ConclusionFailing timely and adequate response of alarm signals generated by EWARS showed to negatively impact the disease outbreak control process. On the other hand, districts with adequate and timely response guided by alarm signals demonstrated successful records of outbreak prevention. This study presents important operational scenarios when failing or successding EWARS but warrants investigating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EWARS using a more robust designs.     

A long-lasting topical deltamethrin treatment to protect dogs against visceral leishmaniasis

To develop long‐lasting, topical pour‐on insecticides for dogs to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis, two deltamethrin‐based formulations (emulsifiable concentrate [EC] and suspension concentrate [SC]) were tested for their efficacy against the phlebotomine sandfly Lutzomyia longipalpis Lutz & Neiva (Diptera: Psychodidae), vector of Leishmania infantum Nicolle (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae). The entomological outcomes tested were anti‐feeding effect (proportion of female sandflies unfed), lethal effect (24‐h female sandfly mortality) and these two effects combined, and the insecticide persistence time at 50% (residual activity, RA₅₀) and 80% (RA₈₀) efficacy. On initial application, the proportions of female flies that demonstrated anti‐feeding activity or were killed were similar for both formulations, at 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.856–0.977) vs. 0.81 (95% CI 0.763–0.858) (anti‐feeding) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.787–0.920) vs. 0.76 (95% CI 0.698–0.817) (24‐h mortality) for EC and SC, respectively. The RA₅₀ rates for anti‐feeding and mortality caused by the EC formulation were 4.7 months (95% CI 4.18–5.84) and 2.5 months (95% CI 2.25–2.90), respectively, compared with 1.1 months (95% CI 0.96–1.15) and 0.6 months (95% CI 0.50–0.61), respectively, for the SC formulation. The RA₅₀ for the combined anti‐feeding and mortality effects of EC was 5.2 months (95% CI 4.73–5.96), compared with only 0.9 months (95% CI 0.85–1.00) for the SC formulation. The four‐ to six‐fold superior residual activity of the EC formulation was attributed to the addition of a solvent‐soluble resin in the formulation which improved fur adhesion and acted as a reservoir for the slow release of the active ingredient. These results identify the potential of such a low‐cost formulation to reduce the inter‐intervention interval to 5–6 months, similar to that recommended for deltamethrin‐impregnated dog collars or for re‐impregnation of conventional bednets, both of which are currently used to combat Leishmania transmission. Finally, a novel bioassay was developed in which sandflies were exposed to fur from treated dogs, revealing no detectable tolerance (24‐h mortality) in wild‐caught sandflies to the insecticide formulations up to 8 months after the initiation of communitywide application of the insecticides to dogs.     

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.     

Evaluation of the effectiveness of insecticide treated materials for household level dengue vector control

Objective

To assess the operational effectiveness of long-lasting insecticide treated materials (ITMs), when used at household level, for the control of Aedes aegypti in moderately infested urban and suburban areas.

Methods

In an intervention study, ITMs consisting of curtains and water jar-covers (made from PermaNet) were distributed under routine field conditions in 10 clusters (5 urban and 5 suburban), with over 4000 houses, in Trujillo, Venezuela. Impact of the interventions were determined by comparing pre-and post-intervention measures of the Breteau index (BI, number of positive containers/100 houses) and pupae per person index (PPI), and by comparison with indices from untreated areas of the same municipalities. The effect of ITM coverage was modeled.

Results

At distribution, the proportion of households with ≥1 ITM curtain was 79.7% in urban and 75.2% in suburban clusters, but decreased to 32.3% and 39.0%, respectively, after 18 months. The corresponding figures for the proportion of jars using ITM covers were 34.0% and 50.8% at distribution and 17.0% and 21.0% after 18 months, respectively. Prior to intervention, the BI was 8.5 in urban clusters and 42.4 in suburban clusters, and the PPI was 0.2 and 0.9, respectively. In both urban and suburban clusters, the BI showed a sustained 55% decrease, while no discernable pattern was observed at the municipal level. After controlling for confounding factors, the percentage ITM curtain coverage, but not ITM jar-cover coverage, was significantly associated with both entomological indices (Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.98; 95%CI 0.97–0.99). The IRR implied that ITM curtain coverage of at least 50% was necessary to reduce A. aegypti infestation levels by 50%.

Conclusion

Deployment of insecticide treated window curtains in households can result in significant reductions in A. aegypti levels when dengue vector infestations are moderate, but the magnitude of the effect depends on the coverage attained, which itself can decline rapidly over time.     

Rapid testing requires clinical evaluation for accurate diagnosis of dengue disease: A passive surveillance study in Southern Malaysia

BackgroundDengue fever is the most common mosquito-borne infection worldwide where an expanding surveillance and characterization of this infection are needed to better inform the healthcare system. In this surveillance-based study, we explored the prevalence and distinguishing features of dengue fever amongst febrile patients in a large community-based health facility in southern peninsular Malaysia.MethodsOver six months in 2018, we recruited 368 adults who met the WHO 2009 criteria for probable dengue infection. They underwent the following blood tests: full blood count, dengue virus (DENV) rapid diagnostic test (RDT), ELISA (dengue IgM and IgG), nested RT-PCR for dengue, multiplex qRT-PCR for Zika, Chikungunya and dengue as well as PCR tests for Leptopspira spp., Japanese encephalitis and West Nile virus.ResultsLaboratory-confirmed dengue infections (defined by positive tests in NS1, IgM, high-titre IgG or nested RT-PCR) were found in 167 (45.4%) patients. Of these 167 dengue patients, only 104 (62.3%) were positive on rapid diagnostic testing. Dengue infection was significantly associated with the following features: family or neighbours with dengue in the past week (AOR: 3.59, 95% CI:2.14–6.00, p<0.001), cutaneous rash (AOR: 3.58, 95% CI:1.77–7.23, p<0.001), increased temperature (AOR: 1.33, 95% CI:1.04–1.70, p = 0.021), leucopenia (white cell count < 4,000/μL) (AOR: 3.44, 95% CI:1.72–6.89, p<0.001) and thrombocytopenia (platelet count <150,000/μL)(AOR: 4.63, 95% CI:2.33–9.21, p<0.001). Dengue infection was negatively associated with runny nose (AOR: 0.47, 95% CI:0.29–0.78, p = 0.003) and arthralgia (AOR: 0.42, 95% CI:0.24–0.75, p = 0.004). Serotyping by nested RT-PCR revealed mostly mono-infections with DENV-2 (n = 64), DENV-1 (n = 32) and DENV-3 (n = 17); 14 co-infections occurred with DENV-1/DENV-2 (n = 13) and DENV-1/DENV-4 (n = 1). Besides dengue, none of the pathogens above were found in patients’ serum.ConclusionsAcute undifferentiated febrile infections are a diagnostic challenge for community-based clinicians. Rapid diagnostic tests are increasingly used to diagnose dengue infection but negative tests should be interpreted with caution as they fail to detect a considerable proportion of dengue infection. Certain clinical features and haematological parameters are important in the clinical diagnosis of dengue infection.     

A dengue outbreak in a rural community in Northern Coastal Ecuador: An analysis using unmanned aerial vehicle mapping

Dengue is recognized as a major health issue in large urban tropical cities but is also observed in rural areas. In these environments, physical characteristics of the landscape and sociodemographic factors may influence vector populations at small geographic scales, while prior immunity to the four dengue virus serotypes affects incidence. In 2019, a rural northwestern Ecuadorian community, only accessible by river, experienced a dengue outbreak. The village is 2–3 hours by boat away from the nearest population center and comprises both Afro-Ecuadorian and Indigenous Chachi households. We used multiple data streams to examine spatial risk factors associated with this outbreak, combining maps collected with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), an entomological survey, a community census, and active surveillance of febrile cases. We mapped visible water containers seen in UAV images and calculated both the green-red vegetation index (GRVI) and household proximity to public spaces like schools and meeting areas. To identify risk factors for symptomatic dengue infection, we used mixed-effect logistic regression models to account for the clustering of symptomatic cases within households. We identified 55 dengue cases (9.5% of the population) from 37 households. Cases peaked in June and continued through October. Rural spatial organization helped to explain disease risk. Afro-Ecuadorian (versus Indigenous) households experience more symptomatic dengue (OR = 3.0, 95%CI: 1.3, 6.9). This association was explained by differences in vegetation (measured by GRVI) near the household (OR: 11.3 95% 0.38, 38.0) and proximity to the football field (OR: 13.9, 95% 4.0, 48.4). The integration of UAV mapping with other data streams adds to our understanding of these dynamics.     

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Estimation of Abundance and Spatial Density of Aedes aegypti

Strategies to minimize dengue transmission commonly rely on vector control, which aims to maintain Ae. aegypti density below a theoretical threshold. Mosquito abundance is traditionally estimated from mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiments, which lack proper analysis regarding accurate vector spatial distribution and population density. Recently proposed strategies to control vector-borne diseases involve replacing the susceptible wild population by genetically modified individuals’ refractory to the infection by the pathogen. Accurate measurements of mosquito abundance in time and space are required to optimize the success of such interventions. In this paper, we present a hierarchical probabilistic model for the estimation of population abundance and spatial distribution from typical mosquito MRR experiments, with direct application to the planning of these new control strategies. We perform a Bayesian analysis using the model and data from two MRR experiments performed in a neighborhood of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during both low- and high-dengue transmission seasons. The hierarchical model indicates that mosquito spatial distribution is clustered during the winter (0.99 mosquitoes/premise 95% CI: 0.80–1.23) and more homogeneous during the high abundance period (5.2 mosquitoes/premise 95% CI: 4.3–5.9). The hierarchical model also performed better than the commonly used Fisher-Ford’s method, when using simulated data. The proposed model provides a formal treatment of the sources of uncertainty associated with the estimation of mosquito abundance imposed by the sampling design. Our approach is useful in strategies such as population suppression or the displacement of wild vector populations by refractory Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, since the invasion dynamics have been shown to follow threshold conditions dictated by mosquito abundance. The presence of spatially distributed abundance hotspots is also formally addressed under this modeling framework and its knowledge deemed crucial to predict the fate of transmission control strategies based on the replacement of vector populations.     

Insecticide resistance in dengue vectors from hotspots in Selangor,Malaysia

BackgroundIn Malaysia, dengue remains a top priority disease and usage of insecticides is the main method for dengue vector control. Limited baseline insecticide resistance data in dengue hotspots has prompted us to conduct this study. The present study reports the use of a map on the insecticide susceptibility status of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to provide a quick visualization and overview of the distribution of insecticide resistance.Method and resultsThe insecticide resistance status of Aedes populations collected from 24 dengue hotspot areas from the period of December 2018 until June 2019 was proactively monitored using the World Health Organization standard protocol for adult and larval susceptibility testing was conducted, together with elucidation of the mechanisms involved in observed resistance. For resistance monitoring, susceptibility to three adulticides (permethrin, deltamethrin, and malathion) was tested, as well as susceptibility to the larvicide, temephos. Data showed significant resistance to both deltamethrin and permethrin (pyrethroid insecticides), and to malathion (organophosphate insecticide) in all sampled Aedes aegypti populations, while variable resistance patterns were found in the sampled Aedes albopictus populations. Temephos resistance was observed when larvae were tested using the diagnostic dosage of 0.012mg/L but not at the operational dosage of 1mg/L for both species.ConclusionThe present study highlights evidence of a potential threat to the effectiveness of insecticides currently used in dengue vector control, and the urgent requirement for insecticide resistance management to be integrated into the National Dengue Control Program.     

Integrating Community-Based Interventions to Reverse the Convergent TB/HIV Epidemics in Rural South Africa

The WHO recommends integrating interventions to address the devastating TB/HIV co-epidemics in South Africa, yet integration has been poorly implemented and TB/HIV control efforts need strengthening. Identifying infected individuals is particularly difficult in rural settings. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of community-based, integrated TB/HIV case finding and additional control strategies on South Africa’s TB/HIV epidemics. We developed a model incorporating TB and HIV transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating TB and HIV interventions in rural South Africa over 10 years. We modeled the impact of a novel screening program that integrates case finding for TB and HIV in the community, comparing it to status quo and recommended TB/HIV control strategies, including GeneXpert, MDR-TB treatment decentralization, improved first-line TB treatment cure rate, isoniazid preventive therapy, and expanded ART. Combining recommended interventions averted 27% of expected TB cases (95% CI 18–40%) 18% HIV (95% CI 13–24%), 60% MDR-TB (95% CI 34–83%), 69% XDR-TB (95% CI 34–90%), and 16% TB/HIV deaths (95% CI 12–29). Supplementing these interventions with annual community-based TB/HIV case finding averted a further 17% of TB cases (44% total; 95% CI 31–56%), 5% HIV (23% total; 95% CI 17–29%), 8% MDR-TB (68% total; 95% CI 40–88%), 4% XDR-TB (73% total; 95% CI 38–91%), and 8% TB/HIV deaths (24% total; 95% CI 16–39%). In addition to increasing screening frequency, we found that improving TB symptom questionnaire sensitivity, second-line TB treatment delays, default before initiating TB treatment or ART, and second-line TB drug efficacy were significantly associated with even greater reductions in TB and HIV cases. TB/HIV epidemics in South Africa were most effectively curtailed by simultaneously implementing interventions that integrated community-based TB/HIV control strategies and targeted drug-resistant TB. Strengthening existing TB and HIV treatment programs is needed to further reduce disease incidence.