TEMPORAL VARIATION FAVORS THE EVOLUTION OF GENERALISTS IN EXPERIMENTAL POPULATIONS OF DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER

In variable environments, selection should favor generalists that maintain fitness across a range of conditions. However, costs of adaptation may generate fitness trade‐offs and lead to some compromise between specialization and generalization that maximizes fitness. Here, we evaluate the evolution of specialization and generalization in 20 populations of Drosophila melanogaster experimentally evolved in constant and variable thermal environments for 3 years. We developed genotypes from each population at two temperatures after which we measured fecundity across eight temperatures. We predicted that constant environments would select for thermal specialists and that variable environments would select for thermal generalists. Contrary to our predictions, specialists and generalists did not evolve in constant and spatially variable environments, respectively. However, temporal variation produced a type of generalist that has rarely been considered by theoretical models of developmental plasticity. Specifically, genotypes from the temporally variable selective environment were more fecund across all temperatures than were genotypes from other environments. These patterns suggest certain allelic effects and should inspire new directions for modeling adaptation to fluctuating environments.     

Genetic Variation in a Heterogeneous Environment. II. Temporal Heterogeneity and Directional Selection

The maintenance of genetic variation is investigated in a finite population where selection at an autosomal locus with two alleles varies temporally between two environments and the heterozygote has an intermediate fitness value. When there is additive gene action and equal selection in both environments, the autocorrelation between subsequent environments must be negative for more maintenance of genetic variation than for neutrality. The maximum maintenance occurs when there is equal selection in the two environments and the autocorrelation approaches ^-1.0 (for a stochastic model), or when there is short repeating cycle such as one related to seasons. Also comparison of the effects of stochastic variation in selection in finite and infinite populations is made by using Monte Carlo simulation. One situation was found where temporal environmental variation maintains genetic variation very effectively even in a small population and that is when there is evolution of dominance, i.e., the heterozygote is closer in fitness to the favored homozygote than the other homozygote. An important conclusion is that in a finite population genetic tracing of environmental change, particularly when there is a positive autocorrelation between environments or a long environmental cycle, leads to an increased loss of genetic variation making such a response undesirable in the long term, a result different from that in infinite populations.     

Age-specific fitness components and their temporal variation in the barn owl

Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate lambda, and the sensitivity of lambda to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate lambda(S), and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age-specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of lambda and lambda(S) to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.     

Size and survival in a stochastic environment

Summary Spatial and temporal variability in environmental conditions can significantly influence fluctuations in body size if the environmental heterogeneity gives rise to variable size dependent mortality rates, or dispersal between sites incurs a reproductive cost. Temporal variability has a greater effect than spatial variability. These conclusions are derived from a model based on the assumption that the innate capacity for increase, r _m , is a suitable fitness measure. The limitations of this model are discussed and an alternative approach using the parent-offspring regression presented. It is suggested that models based upon the latter approach are more appropriate for investigations of the evolution of traits (showing continuous variation) in variable environments because it does not require the assumption that some fitness measure is being optimized and because it may give more insight into the rates of change of the character.     

Environmental tolerance, heterogeneity, and the evolution of reversible plastic responses

Phenotypic plasticity is a key factor for the success of organisms in heterogeneous environments. Although many forms of phenotypic plasticity can be induced and retracted repeatedly, few extant models have analyzed conditions for the evolution of reversible plasticity. We present a general model of reversible plasticity to examine how plastic shifts in the mode and breadth of environmental tolerance functions (that determine relative fitness) depend on time lags in response to environmental change, the pattern of individual exposure to inducing and noninducing environments, and the quality of available information about the environment. We couched the model in terms of prey-induced responses to variable predation regimes. With longer response lags relative to the rate of environmental change, the modes of tolerance functions in both the presence or absence of predators converge on a generalist strategy that lies intermediate between the optimal functions for the two environments in the absence of response lags. Incomplete information about the level of predation risk in inducing environments causes prey to have broader tolerance functions even at the cost of reduced maximal fitness. We give a detailed analysis of how these factors and interactions among them select for joint patterns of mode and breadth plasticity.     

Habitat selection in a variable environment

A Monte Carlo simulation scheme was utilized to determine optimal strategies of habitat utilization in a variable environment. The model allows for differences in quality among habitats at any one time and for varying levels of environmental variance and autocorrelation. When habitats are on the average equal in quality, tracking of temporal fluctuations in environment through variable habitat selection is universally advantageous with the gain in fitness limited by environmental variance, autocorrelation, and number of available habitats. Average differences in quality among habitats will restrict the advantage of variable habitat utilization (over complete usage of the average better habitat) to cases of high environmental autocorrelation or high ratios of enviromental variance to mean habitat separation. Extending an earlier prediction of Levins (1965), the average heterozygosity per individual in a natural population should increase with increasing environmental variance.     

Plasticity is a locally adapted trait with consequences for ecological dynamics in novel environments

Phenotypic plasticity is predicted to evolve in more variable environments, conferring an advantage on individual lifetime fitness. It is less clear what the potential consequences of that plasticity will have on ecological population dynamics. Here, we use an invertebrate model system to examine the effects of environmental variation (resource availability) on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in two life history traits—age and size at maturation—in long‐running, experimental density‐dependent environments. Specifically, we then explore the feedback from evolution of life history plasticity to subsequent ecological dynamics in novel conditions. Plasticity in both traits initially declined in all microcosm environments, but then evolved increased plasticity for age‐at‐maturation, significantly so in more environmentally variable environments. We also demonstrate how plasticity affects ecological dynamics by creating founder populations of different plastic phenotypes into new microcosms that had either familiar or novel environments. Populations originating from periodically variable environments that had evolved greatest plasticity had lowest variability in population size when introduced to novel environments than those from constant or random environments. This suggests that while plasticity may be costly it can confer benefits by reducing the likelihood that offspring will experience low survival through competitive bottlenecks in variable environments. In this study, we demonstrate how plasticity evolves in response to environmental variation and can alter population dynamics—demonstrating an eco‐evolutionary feedback loop in a complex animal moderated by plasticity in growth.     

Reaction norms for metamorphic traits in natterjack toads to larval density and pond duration

The evolution of environmentally-induced changes in phenotype or reaction norm implies both the existence at some time of genetic variation within a population for that plasticity measured by the presence of genotype x environment interaction (G x E), and that phenotypic variation affects fitness. Otherwise, the genetic structure of polygenic traits may restrict the evolution of the reaction norm by the lack of independent evolution of a given trait in different environments or by genetic trade-offs with other traits that affect fitness. In this paper, we analyze the existence of G x E in metamorphic traits to two environmental factors, larval density and pond duration in a factorial experiment with Bufo calamita tadpoles in semi-natural conditions and in the laboratory. Results showed no plastic temporal response in metamorphosis to pond durability at low larval density. The rank of genotypes did not change across different hydroperiods, implying a high genetic correlation that may constrain the evolution of the reaction norm. At high larval density a significant G x E interaction was found, suggesting the potential for the evolution of the reaction norm. A sibship (#1) attained the presumed “optimal” reaction norm by accelerating developmental rate in short duration ponds and delaying it in longer ponds. This could be translated in fitness by an increment in metamorphic survival and size at metamorphosis in short and long ponds respectively with respect to non-plastic sibships. However, genetic variability for plasticity suggests that optimal reaction norm for developmental rates may be variable and hard to achieve in the heterogeneous pond environment. Mass at metamorphosis was not plastic across different pond durations but decreased at high larval density. Significant adaptive plasticity for growth rates appeared in environments that differed drastically in level of crowding conditions, both in the field and in the laboratory. The fact that survival of juveniles metamorphosed at high density ponds was a monotonic function of metamorphic size, implies that response to selection may occur in this population of natterjacks and that genetic variability in plasticity may be a reliable mechanism maintaining adaptive genetic variation in growth rates in the highly variable pond environment.     

Temporal variation in selection accelerates mutational decay by Muller's ratchet

Asexual species accumulate deleterious mutations through an irreversible process known as Muller's ratchet. Attempts to quantify the rate of the ratchet have ignored the role of temporal environmental heterogeneity even though it is common in nature and has the potential to affect overall ratchet rate. Here we examine Muller's ratchet in the context of conditional neutrality (i.e., mutations that are deleterious in some environmental conditions but neutral in others) as well as more subtle changes in the strength (but not sign) of selection. We find that temporal variation increases the rate of the ratchet (mutation accumulation) and the rate of fitness decline over that of populations experiencing constant selection of equivalent average strength. Temporal autocorrelation magnifies the effects of temporal heterogeneity and can allow the ratchet to operate at large population sizes in which it would be halted under constant selection. Classic studies of Muller's ratchet show that the rate of fitness decline is maximized when selection is of a low but intermediate strength. This relationship changes quantitatively with all forms of temporal heterogeneity studied and changes qualitatively when there is temporal autocorrelation in selection. In particular, the rate of fitness decline can increase indefinitely with the strength of selection with some forms of temporal heterogeneity. Our finding that temporal autocorrelation in selection dramatically increases ratchet rate and rate of fitness decline may help to explain the paucity of asexual taxa.     

Timing in a fluctuating environment: environmental variability and asymmetric fitness curves can lead to adaptively mismatched avian reproduction

Adaptation in dynamic environments depends on the grain, magnitude and predictability of ecological fluctuations experienced within and across generations. Phenotypic plasticity is a well-studied mechanism in this regard, yet the potentially complex effects of stochastic environmental variation on optimal mean trait values are often overlooked. Using an optimality model inspired by timing of reproduction in great tits, we show that temporal variation affects not only optimal reaction norm slope, but also elevation. With increased environmental variation and an asymmetric relationship between fitness and breeding date, optimal timing shifts away from the side of the fitness curve with the steepest decline. In a relatively constant environment, the timing of the birds is matched with the seasonal food peak, but they become adaptively mismatched in environments with temporal variation in temperature whenever the fitness curve is asymmetric. Various processes affecting the survival of offspring and parents influence this asymmetry, which collectively determine the 'safest' strategy, i.e. whether females should breed before, on, or after the food peak in a variable environment. As climate change might affect the (co)variance of environmental variables as well as their averages, risk aversion may influence how species should shift their seasonal timing in a warming world.     

The evolution of parental care in stochastic environments

Parental care is of fundamental importance to understanding reproductive strategies and allocation decisions. Here, we explore how parental care strategies evolve in variable environments. Using a set of life-history trait trade-offs, we explore the relative costs and benefits of parental care in stochastic environments. Specifically, we consider the cases in which environmental variability results in varying adult death rates, egg death rates, reproductive rate and carrying capacity. Using a measure of fitness appropriate for stochastic environments, we find that parental care has the potential to evolve over a wide range of life-history characteristics when the environment is variable. A variable environment that affects adult or egg death rates can either increase or decrease the fitness of care relative to that in a constant environment, depending on the specific costs of care. Variability that affects carrying capacity or adult reproductive rate has negligible effects on the fitness associated with care. Increasing parental care across different life-history stages can increase fitness gains in variable environments. Costly investment in care is expected to affect the overall fitness benefits, the fitness optimum and rate of evolution of parental care. In general, we find that environmental variability, the life-history traits affected by such variability and the specific costs of care interact to determine whether care will be favoured in a variable environment and what levels of care will be selected.     

Bacterial adaptation to sublethal antibiotic gradients can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities

Antibiotics leak constantly into environments due to widespread use in agriculture and human therapy. Although sublethal concentrations are well known to select for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, little is known about how bacterial evolution cascades through food webs, having indirect effect on species not directly affected by antibiotics (e.g. via population dynamics or pleiotropic effects). Here, we used an experimental evolution approach to test how temporal patterns of antibiotic stress, as well as migration within metapopulations, affect the evolution and ecology of microcosms containing one prey bacterium, one phage and two protist predators. We found that environmental variability, autocorrelation and migration had only subtle effects for population and evolutionary dynamics. However, unexpectedly, bacteria evolved greatest fitness increases to both antibiotics and enemies when the sublethal levels of antibiotics were highest, indicating positive pleiotropy. Crucially, bacterial adaptation cascaded through the food web leading to reduced predator-to-prey abundance ratio, lowered predator community diversity and increased instability of populations. Our results show that the presence of natural enemies can modify and even reverse the effects of antibiotics on bacteria, and that antibiotic selection can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities by having indirect effects on species not directly affected by antibiotics.     

The temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for an optimum

Temporal variation in phenotypic selection is often attributed to environmental change causing movements of the adaptive surface relating traits to fitness, but this connection is rarely established empirically. Fluctuating phenotypic selection can be measured by the variance and autocorrelation of directional selection gradients through time. However, the dynamics of these gradients depend not only on environmental changes altering the fitness surface, but also on evolution of the phenotypic distribution. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent variability in selection gradients can inform us about the underlying drivers of their fluctuations. To investigate this question, we derive the temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for a phenotypic optimum that is either constant or fluctuates randomly in various ways in a finite population. Our analytical results, combined with population‐ and individual‐based simulations, show that although some characteristic patterns can be distinguished, very different types of change in the optimum (including a constant optimum) can generate similar temporal distributions of selection gradients, making it difficult to infer the processes underlying apparent fluctuating selection. Analyzing changes in phenotype distributions together with changes in selection gradients should prove more useful for inferring the mechanisms underlying estimated fluctuating selection.     

Evolution of a single niche specialist in variable environments

The pattern (space versus time) and scale (relative to the lifetime of individuals) of environmental variation is thought to play a central role in governing the evolution of the ecological niche and the maintenance of genetic variance in fitness. To evaluate this idea, we serially propagated an initially genetically uniform population of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens for a few hundred generations in environments that differed in both the pattern and scale at which two highly contrasted carbon substrates were experienced. We found that, contrary to expectations, populations often evolved into a single niche specialist adapted to the less-productive substrate in variable environments and that the genetic variance in fitness across different components of the environment was not generally higher in variable environments when compared with constant environments. We provide evidence to suggest that our results reflect a novel constraint on niche evolution imposed by the supply of beneficial mutations available to selection in variable environments.     

Predicting population genetic change in an autocorrelated random environment: Insights from a large automated experiment

Most natural environments exhibit a substantial component of random variation, with a degree of temporal autocorrelation that defines the color of environmental noise. Such environmental fluctuations cause random fluctuations in natural selection, affecting the predictability of evolution. But despite long-standing theoretical interest in population genetics in stochastic environments, there is a dearth of empirical estimation of underlying parameters of this theory. More importantly, it is still an open question whether evolution in fluctuating environments can be predicted indirectly using simpler measures, which combine environmental time series with population estimates in constant environments. Here we address these questions by using an automated experimental evolution approach. We used a liquid-handling robot to expose over a hundred lines of the micro-alga Dunaliella salina to randomly fluctuating salinity over a continuous range, with controlled mean, variance, and autocorrelation. We then tracked the frequencies of two competing strains through amplicon sequencing of nuclear and choloroplastic barcode sequences. We show that the magnitude of environmental fluctuations (determined by their variance), but also their predictability (determined by their autocorrelation), had large impacts on the average selection coefficient. The variance in frequency change, which quantifies randomness in population genetics, was substantially higher in a fluctuating environment. The reaction norm of selection coefficients against constant salinity yielded accurate predictions for the mean selection coefficient in a fluctuating environment. This selection reaction norm was in turn well predicted by environmental tolerance curves, with population growth rate against salinity. However, both the selection reaction norm and tolerance curves underestimated the variance in selection caused by random environmental fluctuations. Overall, our results provide exceptional insights into the prospects for understanding and predicting genetic evolution in randomly fluctuating environments.     

High Altitude Frogs (Rana kukonoris) Adopt a Diversified Bethedging Strategy in the Face of Environmental Unpredictability

Environmental unpredictability can influence strategies of maternal investment among eggs within a clutch. Models predict that breeding females should adopt a diversified bet-hedging strategy in unpredictable environments, but empirical field evidence from Asia is scarce. Here we tested this hypothesis by exploring spatial patterns in egg size along an altitudinal gradient in a frog species(Rana kukunoris) inhabiting the Tibetan Plateau. Within-clutch variability in egg size increased as the environment became variable(e.g., lower mean monthly temperature and mean monthly rainfall at higher altitudes), and populations in environments with more unpredictable rainfall produced eggs that were smaller and more variable in size. We provide support for a diversified bet-hedging strategy in high-altitude environments, which experience dynamic weather patterns and therefore are of unpredictable environmental quality. This strategy may be an adaptive response to lower environmental quality and higher unpredictable environmental variance. Such a strategy should increase the likelihood of breeding success and maximize maternal lifetime fitness by producing offspring that are adapted to current environmental conditions. We speculate that in high-altitude environments prone to physical disturbance, breeding females are unable to consistently produce the optimal egg size due to physiological constraints imposed by environmental conditions(e.g., duration of the active season, food availability). Species and populations whose breeding strategies are adapted to cope with uncertain environmental conditions by adjusting offspring size and therefore quality show a remarkable degree of ability to cope with future climatic changes.     

Evolutionary bet-hedging in the real world: empirical evidence and challenges revealed by plants

Understanding the adaptations that allow species to live in temporally variable environments is essential for predicting how they may respond to future environmental change. Variation at the intergenerational scale can allow the evolution of bet-hedging strategies: a novel genotype may be favoured over an alternative with higher arithmetic mean fitness if the new genotype experiences a sufficiently large reduction in temporal fitness variation; the successful genotype is said to have traded off its mean and variance in fitness in order to ‘hedge its evolutionary bets’. We review the evidence for bet-hedging in a range of simple plant systems that have proved particularly tractable for studying bet-hedging under natural conditions. We begin by outlining the essential theory, reiterating the important distinction between conservative and diversified bet-hedging strategies. We then examine the theory and empirical evidence for the canonical example of bet-hedging: diversification via dormant seeds in annual plants. We discuss the complications that arise when moving beyond this simple case to consider more complex life-history traits, such as flowering size in semelparous perennial plants. Finally, we outline a framework for accommodating these complications, emphasizing the central role that model-based approaches can play.     

Age-specific mortality rates in reef fishes: Evidence and implications

Abstract Mortality is a fundamental demographic rate, the nature of which has profound consequences for both the dynamics of populations and the life-history evolution of species. For example, if per capita mortality rates are age- or stage-specific, life-history traits should evolve in response to age- and stage-specific differences in selection arising from these temporally variable rates. Similarly, variation in the average mortality rate across ages and/or stages can also select for shifts in life history. Mortality rates of recently settled reef fishes can be very high and per capita mortality is commonly assumed to decrease with increasing age. A review of evidence for age-specific per capita mortality rates in reef fishes from early postsettlement up to 13 months postsettlement suggests that during this period these rates are often age invariant. The data on which these interpretations are based, however, are extremely limited both in terms of the proportion of the life cycle over which mortality rates have been sampled and the quality of these data. Nonetheless, these data do suggest that selective pressures associated with patterns of mortality may vary among species of reef fishes and that these species therefore could be more effectively used in the study of life-history evolution. At present, reef fishes are under-represented in the study of life-history evolution compared with other vertebrate taxa.     

Differences in the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection among fitness components in the wild

The balance of selection acting through different fitness components (e.g. fecundity, mating success, survival) determines the potential tempo and trajectory of adaptive evolution. Yet the extent to which the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection may vary among fitness components is poorly understood. Here, we compiled a database of 3978 linear selection coefficients from temporally replicated studies of selection in wild populations to address this question. Across studies, we find that multi-year selection through mating success and fecundity is stronger than selection through survival, but varies less in direction. We also report that selection through mating success varies more in long-term average strength than selection through either survival or fecundity. The consistency in direction and stronger long-term average strength of selection through mating success and fecundity suggests that selection through these fitness components should cause more persistent directional evolution relative to selection through survival. Similar patterns were apparent for the subset of studies that evaluated the temporal dynamics of selection on traits simultaneously using several different fitness components, but few such studies exist. Taken together, these results reveal key differences in the temporal dynamics of selection acting through different fitness components, but they also reveal important limitations in our understanding of how selection drives adaptive evolution.     

How to balance the offspring quality–quantity tradeoff when environmental cues are unreliable

Maternal effects on offspring size can have a strong effect on fitness, as larger offspring often survive better under harsh environmental conditions. Selection should hence favour mothers that find an optimal solution to the offspring size versus number tradeoff. If environmental conditions are variable, there will not be a single optimal offspring size, as predicted in a constant environment, but plastic responses can be favoured. To be able to adjust offspring size in an adaptive manner, mothers have to use environmental cues to predict offspring environmental conditions. Cues can be unreliable, however, particularly in species where individuals occupy different niches at different life stages. Here we model the evolution of plasticity of offspring size when the environmental cues mothers use to predict the conditions experienced by their offspring are not perfectly reliable. Our results show that plastic strategies are likely to be superior to fixed strategies in a stochastically varying environment when the environmental cues are at least moderately reliable, with the threshold depending on plasticity costs and the difference of resources available to mothers. Plasticity is more likely to occur if resource availability is not too different between environments. For any given scenario, plasticity in offspring size is favoured if offspring survival varies greatly between environmental states. Whenever plastic strategies are optimal, the occurring switches performed by mothers between small and large offspring are predicted to be substantial, as small adjustments are unlikely to reap fitness benefits great enough to overcome the costs of plasticity.