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1.
John J. Wiens 《PLoS biology》2021,19(8)
The number of species on Earth is highly uncertain. A recent study has suggested that there are less than 2 million prokaryotic species on Earth; this Formal Comment suggests instead that there are more likely hundreds of millions or billions of species, and that the majority of these are bacteria associated with insects and other animals.The number of species on Earth is a fundamental number in science. Yet, estimates of global biodiversity have been highly uncertain. There are presently approximately 1.9 million described species [1]. Estimates of the actual number (both described and undescribed) have ranged from the low millions into the trillions [2,3]. Furthermore, described species richness [1] is dominated by animals (1.3 million; 68%), not bacteria (approximately 10,000 species; 0.5%). Larsen and colleagues [2] summarized evidence suggesting that the majority of species on Earth may be bacteria associated with insect hosts and that bacterial richness may push global biodiversity into the hundreds of millions of species or even low billions.Louca and colleagues [4] (LEA hereafter) have claimed instead that there are only 40,100 host-associated bacterial species among all animal species and 0.8 to 1.6 million prokaryotic species overall (see their “Author summary”). Strangely, they excluded bacterial species associated with animal hosts from their estimates of total prokaryotic diversity and justified this by claiming that the estimates of Larsen and colleagues [2] were “mathematically flawed.” Here, I examine their claims and present new estimates of global biodiversity.Remarkably, all projections by LEA for host-associated bacterial richness were based on an estimate from one ant genus (Cephalotes), an estimate that is demonstrably incorrect by orders of magnitude (S1 Text). Without examining the underlying data [5], LEA estimated only 40 bacterial species among all 130 ant species in this genus. Yet, simply counting the bacterial species among the 25 sampled ant species in that genus reveals 616 unique bacterial species, of which 539 appear to be unique to the genus and 369 each unique to a single ant species (using the standard 97% cutoff for 16S divergence and data from [5]). Thus, there were >500 bacterial species among 25 ant species, not 40 bacterial species among 130 ant species. This mistake was further exacerbated by inexplicably ignoring data from the other 2 insect genera analyzed by Larsen and colleagues [2], thus maximizing the impact of their incorrect estimate for this genus.Their overall estimate of bacterial richness was also strongly influenced by their questionable assumption that all animal genera can share bacterial species (i.e., reducing their estimate of 3 million host-associated bacterial species to only 40,100). They assumed “a conservative overlap of only 0.1% between any two randomly chosen genera” for the number of bacterial species shared between animal genera. No justification was given for this value of 0.1%, nor were any alternative values explored. Furthermore, they implicitly assumed that any bacterial species can be shared between any pair of animal genera, regardless of their phylogeny, habitat, or geographic range. So, for example, a bacterial species that is a gut endosymbiont of a terrestrial herbivorous insect species endemic to Madagascar could somehow be shared with a deep-sea worm in the northern Pacific Ocean. This is ridiculous: there must be a reason why bacterial species are shared among host species and genera (e.g., shared phylogeny, location, diet). For example, broad-scale studies show that sharing of bacteria among insect hosts is associated with both host phylogeny and diet [6].LEA stated “it is known that substantial overlap exists between the microbiota of different host genera and even of distantly related animal taxa.” However, they provided no numbers to justify this “substantial overlap.” In fact, none of the papers they cited as supporting this assumption actually do (S2 Text). For example, one study [7] found 5 bacterial species shared among 5 insect genera utilizing the same type of host plant (cycads). However, LEA do not mention that this study found 1,789 unique bacterial species among just these 5 insect species (or 177 after filtering). This seems inconsistent with their estimate of only 40,100 bacterial species across all animals. In summary, rather than estimating the overlap of bacterial species among host genera, LEA simply made a number up and combined this with unrealistic, unsupported assumptions about overlap. If LEA had considered Cephalotes (which all their estimates were based on), a survey of this genus and related genera [5] found 1,019 bacterial species, with only 77 of the 616 bacterial species in Cephalotes shared with other sampled genera, and the sharing of bacterial species among hosts strongly related to host phylogeny.Numerous surveys of bacterial diversity in insects strongly suggest that there are far more than 40,100 bacterial species among all animals (8] found roughly twice as many bacterial species as those of approximately 30 insect species [5,9], and the study of 218 insect species [6] found >3.5 times as many as the study of 62 insect species. The simple fact that a study found 9,301 bacterial species among only 218 sampled insect species strongly suggests that there are more than 40,100 bacteria among all animals.Table 1Surveys of bacterial diversity among insect species.LEA incorrectly estimated that a genus of 130 ant species (Cephalotes) hosts only 40 bacterial species and subsequently assumed that all animal genera have the same low number of bacterial species. These broad surveys of bacterial species among insects suggest that many insects (including Cephalotes) host much larger numbers of bacterial species.
Open in a separate windowGiven these problems with the estimate of LEA, what is the actual number of bacterial species on Earth? LEA were correct that Larsen and colleagues [2] only estimated the number of species-specific bacteria per insect host species, and those estimates could be wrong. I therefore recalculated those estimates based on more direct counts of species-specific bacteria from the original studies (S3 Text). In 2]. Specifically, Larsen and colleagues [2] projected 0.209 to 5.8 billion species on Earth, of which 66% to 91% are bacteria, whereas I project 0.183 to 4.2 billion, with 58% to 88% bacteria (2] and are explained below. For each scenario, the projected number of species for each group is shown, along with the percentage of the total number of species belonging to that group (note that plants are <0.5% and are rounded down to 0%). In addition to the 4 scenarios, 4 other assumptions were explored. The first 3 involve different estimated numbers of morphologically cryptic arthropod species per morphology-based insect species (from 6 to 2 to 0; for justification, see [2]). These impact the number of animal species, and all downstream estimates for other groups. The final, fourth set of analyses assumes 6 morphologically cryptic arthropod species and that mites host negligible numbers of nematode species. Scenario 1 assumes that all animal species have a full set of bacterial, protist, and fungal endosymbionts, even if they are parasites, but that microsporidian fungi and apicomplexan protists have little or no host-specific bacterial richness. Scenario 2 assumes that symbionts have limited numbers of symbionts themselves (i.e., nematodes have an average of only one host-specific bacterial species) and that microsporidians and apicomplexans have few or no bacterial species. Scenario 3 assumes that all animal species have a full set of symbiont species and that microsporidians and apicomplexans host (on average) as many bacterial species as animal species do. Scenario 4 is identical to Scenario 1, except that it assumes that mites have reduced species richness relative to other arthropods (0.25 mites∶1 other arthropod species). Note that there is an error in Table 3, Scenario 1 in Larsen and colleagues [2]: There should be 27.2 million animal species, not 20.4. The correct number is used here. Archaean species is considered to be limited overall [2], and so is not treated separately.
Open in a separate windowIn summary, the conclusions of LEA are based on an initial estimate of bacterial richness for one genus that was clearly incorrect, combined with a made-up number (and unrealistic assumptions) to estimate overlap of bacterial species among host genera. Reanalyses here suggest that bacterial richness (and the diversity of life) is more likely in the hundreds of millions or billions. 相似文献
Insect group sampled | Insect species sampled | Unique bacterial species found | References |
---|---|---|---|
Ants (Cephalotes and 3 related genera) | 29 | 1,019 | Sanders and colleagues [5] |
Lycaenid butterflies | 31 | 1,156 | Whitaker and colleagues [9] |
Native Hawaiian insects (beetles, flies, true bugs) | 13 | 1,094 | Poff and colleagues [10] |
Various insect orders | 62 | 2,073 | Colman and colleagues [8] |
21 insect orders | 218 | 9,301 | Yun and colleagues [6] |
Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Million species | % of total | Million species | % of total | Million species | % of total | Million species | % of total | |
6 cryptic arthropod species | ||||||||
Animals | 163.2 | 9.4 | 163.2 | 13.7 | 163.2 | 3.9 | 102.0 | 9.4 |
Plants | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 |
Fungi | 165.6 | 9.6 | 165.6 | 13.9 | 165.6 | 3.9 | 104.6 | 9.6 |
Protists | 163.2 | 9.4 | 163.2 | 13.7 | 163.2 | 3.9 | 102.0 | 9.4 |
Bacteria | 1,240.3 | 71.6 | 701.8 | 58.8 | 3,721.0 | 88.3 | 775.2 | 71.5 |
Total | 1,732.7 | 1,194.1 | 4,213.3 | 1,084.1 | ||||
2 cryptic arthropod species | ||||||||
Animals | 54.4 | 9.4 | 54.4 | 13.6 | 54.4 | 3.9 | 34.0 | 9.4 |
Plants | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 |
Fungi | 56.8 | 9.8 | 56.8 | 14.2 | 56.8 | 4.0 | 36.4 | 10.0 |
Protists | 54.4 | 9.4 | 54.4 | 13.6 | 54.4 | 3.9 | 34.0 | 9.4 |
Bacteria | 413.4 | 71.4 | 233.9 | 58.5 | 1,240.3 | 88.2 | 258.4 | 71.1 |
Total | 579.4 | 399.9 | 1,406.3 | 363.1 | ||||
0 cryptic arthropod species | ||||||||
Animals | 27.2 | 9.3 | 27.2 | 13.5 | 27.2 | 3.9 | 17.0 | 9.3 |
Plants | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 |
Fungi | 29.6 | 10.2 | 29.6 | 14.7 | 29.6 | 4.2 | 19.4 | 10.6 |
Protists | 27.2 | 9.3 | 27.2 | 13.5 | 27.2 | 3.9 | 17.0 | 9.3 |
Bacteria | 206.7 | 71.0 | 117.0 | 58.1 | 620.2 | 88.0 | 129.2 | 70.6 |
Total | 291.1 | 201.3 | 704.5 | 182.9 | ||||
Mites host limited nematode richness, 6 cryptic arthropod species | ||||||||
Animals | 122.4 | 9.4 | 122.4 | 11.9 | 122.4 | 3.9 | 91.8 | 9.4 |
Plants | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 |
Fungi | 124.8 | 9.6 | 124.8 | 12.1 | 124.8 | 3.9 | 94.2 | 9.6 |
Protists | 122.4 | 9.4 | 122.4 | 11.9 | 122.4 | 3.9 | 91.8 | 9.4 |
Bacteria | 930.2 | 71.5 | 661.0 | 64.1 | 2,790.7 | 88.3 | 697.7 | 71.5 |
Total | 1,300.2 | 1,030.9 | 3,160.7 | 975.8 |
2.
Kerrie A. Wilson Nancy A. Auerbach Katerina Sam Ariana G. Magini Alexander St. L. Moss Simone D. Langhans Sugeng Budiharta Dilva Terzano Erik Meijaard 《PLoS biology》2016,14(3)
Target 19, set by the Convention on Biological Diversity, seeks to improve the knowledge, science base, and technologies relating to biodiversity. We will fail to achieve this target unless prolific biases in the field of conservation science are addressed. We reveal that comparatively less research is undertaken in the world’s most biodiverse countries, the science conducted in these countries is often not led by researchers based in-country, and these scientists are also underrepresented in important international fora. Mitigating these biases requires wide-ranging solutions: reforming open access publishing policies, enhancing science communication strategies, changing author attribution practices, improving representation in international processes, and strengthening infrastructure and human capacity for research in countries where it is most needed.In the environmental sciences, the scientific process generates evidence for policies and practices. Published evidence indicates that the quality standards associated with peer review have been met. Publishing also provides others with access to the evidence being shared, and increasingly, to the data and methodological processes underlying it. There are, however, strong biases in the peer-reviewed literature.Biodiversity and the threats to its persistence are not uniformly distributed across the globe and therefore some areas demand comparatively greater scientific attention. If research is biased away from the most biodiverse areas, then this will accentuate the impacts of the global biodiversity crisis and reduce our capacity to protect and manage the natural ecosystems that underpin human well-being. Target 19 of the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD) states that “By 2020, knowledge, the science base, and technologies relating to biodiversity, its values, functioning, status and trends, and the consequences of its loss, are improved, widely shared and transferred, and applied” [1]. Biases in conservation science will prevent us from achieving this target.We conducted the first comprehensive analysis of publishing trends of the conservation science literature. We identified all publications from 2014 on the topic of “conservation” in the research areas of environmental sciences, ecology, biodiversity conservation, plant sciences, zoology, and geography. We searched both the Thomson Reuters Zoological Records and Web of Science Core Collection databases, which returned 10,036 scientific publications (from 1,061 journals), after the duplicate, unrelated, and incomplete records were removed. For a subset of these publications (n = 7,593, or 81%), we manually identified at least one topic country, and we determined the relative conservation importance of these countries for mammal conservation [2] as well as a broader definition of conservation importance that considers richness of vascular plants, endemic species, and functional species [3].The countries for which knowledge is sparse coincide with where research is most urgently needed. The top five countries, ranked according to relative importance for mammal conservation (i.e, Indonesia, Madagascar, Peru, Mexico, and Australia), were represented in 11.9% of the publications (Fig 1). If we consider the broader definition of conservation importance that reflects the richness of vascular plants, endemic species, and functional species, then the top five countries (i.e., Ecuador, Costa Rica, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Papua New Guinea) are the focus of only 1.6% of publications (4,5], will continue to be populated with biased data.Open in a separate windowFig 1Global distribution of publications on biodiversity conservation (S1 Data).
Open in a separate windowWith comparatively fewer publications being generated, it would be ideal for these publications to be widely shared. Open access publishing is growing in popularity, but still only 14% (n = 809) of the publications recorded in the Thomson Reuters Web of Science Core Collection database were published as open access. Only 128 of the 1,090 publications (11.7%) that focused on the ten countries of the greatest conservation importance were freely accessible (6], particularly since the research conducted in the most biodiverse countries is predominately led by researchers based elsewhere. Only 23% of the Indonesian publications, 22% of the Ecuadorian, and none of the Papua New Guinean and the Dominican Republic publications were led by researchers affiliated with local institutions (7–9], or a limited subset of journals [10,11] or countries [12,13]. Attribution of joint affiliations for lead authors would enable local institutions to be recognised at national levels and by international ranking systems.While peer-reviewed publications are an important component of evidence-based policy [14], on-ground change necessitates the support of a concerned public [15]. Social media outlets are important mechanisms for widely communicating research findings. Furthermore, engagement in social media contributes to social capital and community participation by creating cohesive networks and enabling the exchange of information across diverse groups [16]. Interestingly, we find evidence that the public is more interested in the research findings from biodiverse countries, as indicated by the Altmetrics score for each publication (a measure of attention generated in social media). The average Altmetrics score for the publications concerning the top five countries for investment in mammal conservation was 14.2 (n = 353). A publication concerning the US had the highest score (434), but overall, the publications on the US had a lower average, at 11.8 (n = 436) ( 相似文献
Table 1
Publishing trends and representation in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Specialist Groups or the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) for (A) the countries ranked highest in terms of importance for mammal conservation [2], (B) the countries ranked highest in terms of biodiversity [3], and (C) the United States and United Kingdom, for the purposes of comparison (S1 Data).Country | Number publications (with % of total) | Percentage publications led by an in-country institution | Average Altmetrics score (with maximum) | Number publications published open access | Number IPBES experts | Number IUCN chairs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A | ||||||
1. Indonesia | 95 (1.1) | 23 | 12.5 (133) | 9 | 5 | 1 |
2. Madagascar | 64 (0.8) | 14 | 19.8 (194) | 7 | 10 | 1 |
3. Peru | 49 (0.6) | 10 | 15.2 (105) | 11 | 2 | 0 |
4. Mexico | 228 (2.8) | 68 | 12.4 (256) | 62 | 9 | 4 |
5. Australia | 527 (6.5) | 94 | 11.2 (192) | 24 | 21 | 8 |
B | ||||||
1. Ecuador | 46 (0.6) | 22 | 9.4 (52) | 6 | 1 | 0 |
2. Costa Rica | 37 (0.5) | 14 | 3.8 (7) | 3 | 4 | 0 |
3. Panama | 22 (0.3) | 5 | 3.8 (7) | 5 | 0 | 0 |
4. Dominican Republic | 6 (0.07) | 0 | 1.5 (2) | 0 | 1 | 0 |
5. Papua New Guinea | 16 (0.2) | 0 | 9.3 (22) | 1 | 0 | 0 |
C | ||||||
US (ranked 40 for A and 157 for B) | 1,441 (17.8) | 93 | 11.8 (434) | 71 | 23 | 44 |
UK (ranked 170 for A and 167 for B) | 249 (3.1) | 77 | 15 (146) | 11 | 18 | 39 |
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5.
Zachary D. Stephens Skylar Y. Lee Faraz Faghri Roy H. Campbell Chengxiang Zhai Miles J. Efron Ravishankar Iyer Michael C. Schatz Saurabh Sinha Gene E. Robinson 《PLoS biology》2015,13(7)
Genomics is a Big Data science and is going to get much bigger, very soon, but it is not known whether the needs of genomics will exceed other Big Data domains. Projecting to the year 2025, we compared genomics with three other major generators of Big Data: astronomy, YouTube, and Twitter. Our estimates show that genomics is a “four-headed beast”—it is either on par with or the most demanding of the domains analyzed here in terms of data acquisition, storage, distribution, and analysis. We discuss aspects of new technologies that will need to be developed to rise up and meet the computational challenges that genomics poses for the near future. Now is the time for concerted, community-wide planning for the “genomical” challenges of the next decade.We compared genomics with three other major generators of Big Data: astronomy, YouTube, and Twitter. Astronomy has faced the challenges of Big Data for over 20 years and continues with ever-more ambitious studies of the universe. YouTube burst on the scene in 2005 and has sparked extraordinary worldwide interest in creating and sharing huge numbers of videos. Twitter, created in 2006, has become the poster child of the burgeoning movement in computational social science [6], with unprecedented opportunities for new insights by mining the enormous and ever-growing amount of textual data [7]. Particle physics also produces massive quantities of raw data, although the footprint is surprisingly limited since the vast majority of data are discarded soon after acquisition using the processing power that is coupled to the sensors [8]. Consequently, we do not include the domain in full detail here, although that model of rapid filtering and analysis will surely play an increasingly important role in genomics as the field matures.To compare these four disparate domains, we considered the four components that comprise the “life cycle” of a dataset: acquisition, storage, distribution, and analysis (
Data Phase
Astronomy
Twitter
YouTube
Genomics
Acquisition
25 zetta-bytes/year 0.5–15 billion tweets/year 500–900 million hours/year 1 zetta-bases/year
Storage
1 EB/year 1–17 PB/year 1–2 EB/year 2–40 EB/year
Analysis
In situ data reduction Topic and sentiment mining Limited requirements Heterogeneous data and analysis Real-time processing Metadata analysis Variant calling, ~2 trillion central processing unit (CPU) hours Massive volumes All-pairs genome alignments, ~10,000 trillion CPU hours
Distribution
Dedicated lines from antennae to server (600 TB/s) Small units of distribution Major component of modern user’s bandwidth (10 MB/s) Many small (10 MB/s) and fewer massive (10 TB/s) data movement