气候变暖对陆地植被-土壤生态系统的影响研究

由于自然因素及人类活动的长期影响,全球气候变化已经成为不容置疑的事实,并对陆地生态系统的植被及土壤产生了深远影响。陆地植被一土壤生态系统在全球气候变化中的反应与适应等过程已成为众多科学家所关注的问题。为更好地了解陆地植被一土壤生态系统对全球气候变化的响应机制,综述了气候变暖对植物的物候与生长、光合特征、生物量生产与分配,以及土壤呼吸等方面的影响,并对分析得到的结论进行了总结。分析指出,随着全球气候变暖,植物个体和群落特征以及土壤特性都会发生相应改变,高海拔地区的植被高度有增加趋势,而低海拔地区的植被可能出现矮化。然而,在以下方面还存有不确定性：（1）气候变暖导致的植被特征变化是否会减弱全球气候变化;（2）在较长时间尺度上气候变暖如何影响植物的物候和生长,特别是植物的体型;（3）高寒生态系统冬季土壤呼吸对气候变暖如何响应。     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry,biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa

We model future changes in land biogeochemistry and biogeography across East Africa. East Africa is one of few tropical regions where general circulation model (GCM) future climate projections exhibit a robust response of strong future warming and general annual‐mean rainfall increases. Eighteen future climate projections from nine GCMs participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment were used as input to the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), which predicted vegetation patterns and carbon storage in agreement with satellite observations and forest inventory data under the present‐day climate. All simulations showed future increases in tropical woody vegetation over the region at the expense of grasslands. Regional increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (18–36%) and total carbon storage (3–13%) by 2080–2099 compared with the present‐day were common to all simulations. Despite decreases in soil carbon after 2050, seven out of nine simulations continued to show an annual net land carbon sink in the final decades of the 21st century because vegetation biomass continued to increase. The seasonal cycles of rainfall and soil moisture show future increases in wet season rainfall across the GCMs with generally little change in dry season rainfall. Based on the simulated present‐day climate and its future trends, the GCMs can be grouped into four broad categories. Overall, our model results suggest that East Africa, a populous and economically poor region, is likely to experience some ecosystem service benefits through increased precipitation, river runoff and fresh water availability. Resulting enhancements in NPP may lead to improved crop yields in some areas. Our results stand in partial contradiction to other studies that suggest possible negative consequences for agriculture, biodiversity and other ecosystem services caused by temperature increases.     

Seasonal patterns of leaf production in co‐occurring trees with contrasting leaf phenology: time and quantitative divergences

Neotropical savannas (‘cerrados’) of Central Brazil are characterized by the coexistence of a large diversity of tree species with divergent phenological behaviors, which reflect a great diversity in growth strategies. In the present study time behavior and quantitative aspects of shoot growth, shoot mortality, and leaf longevity and production were analyzed in 12 woody species of contrasting leaf phenology, adopting a functional group approach where 12 species were categorized into three functional groups: evergreen, decidous and brevideciduous, according to their leaf phenology. Shoot growth and leaf production were seasonal for the three functional groups, differing in their time of occurrence, but being concentrated during the last months of the dry season. Shoot growth differed between evergreens and deciduous, as well leaf production. Evergreens had higher rates of shoot growth, produced a higher number of leaves and had longer leaf longevity (around 500 days against 300 days in deciduous and brevideciduous). Leaf longevity was associated with patterns of leaf production when accounting for all phenological groups studied. It was possible to identify different patterns of aerial growth in savanna phenological groups, providing evidence of great functional variability amongst the groups studied.     

Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model

The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process‐based, large‐scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land‐atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these ‘fast’ processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, population dynamics, soil organic matter and litter dynamics and fire disturbance. Ten plants functional types (PFTs) are differentiated by physiological, morphological, phenological, bioclimatic and fire‐response attributes. Resource competition and differential responses to fire between PFTs influence their relative fractional cover from year to year. Photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and soil water dynamics are modelled on a daily time step, while vegetation structure and PFT population densities are updated annually. Simulations have been made over the industrial period both for specific sites where field measurements were available for model evaluation, and globally on a 0.5°° × 0.5°° grid. Modelled vegetation patterns are consistent with observations, including remotely sensed vegetation structure and phenology. Seasonal cycles of net ecosystem exchange and soil moisture compare well with local measurements. Global carbon exchange fields used as input to an atmospheric tracer transport model (TM2) provided a good fit to observed seasonal cycles of CO₂ concentration at all latitudes. Simulated inter‐annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon balance is in phase with and comparable in amplitude to observed variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂. Global terrestrial carbon and water cycle parameters (pool sizes and fluxes) lie within their accepted ranges. The model is being used to study past, present and future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biochemical and biophysical interactions between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and as a component of coupled Earth system models.     

Selecting models to predict the timing of flowering of temperate trees: implications for tree phenology modelling

Classical budburst models (Spring Warming, Sequential, Parallel and Alternating) are unable to fully predict external data, partly because of the methods of optimization used to adjust them. The purpose of this study was to examine different assumptions of budburst models and select those which are best supported by the data, defining new models able to predict external data. Eight models, each differing in one assumption, were fitted and tested using external data. The dataset used to test the models was deduced from aeropalynological data at two stations in France. The results show that some of the models proposed are able to accurately predict external dates of flowering of most of the studied species. The assumptions of those models have been individually tested and shown to improve the models accuracy. Robust estimates of the best predictor models of 12 tree species are presented. The analysis of hypothetical provenance transfer of two species, Buxus sempervirens and Platanus acerifolia, between the two study sites, shows that P. acerifolia estimates are similar in both environments whereas B. sempervirens estimates are variable. This result, which agrees with the genetic characteristics of both species, shows that local adaptation of phenology can also be studied through modelling approaches.     

Seasonal variability in the effect of elevated CO2 on ecosystem leaf area index in a scrub-oak ecosystem

We report effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a) on leaf area index (LAI) of a Florida scrub‐oak ecosystem, which had regenerated after fire for between three and five years in open‐top chambers (OTCs) and was yet to reach canopy closure. LAI was measured using four nondestructive methods, calibrated and tested in experiments performed in calibration plots near the OTCs. The four methods were: PAR transmission through the canopy, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), hemispherical photography, and allometric relationships between plant stem diameter and plant leaf area. Calibration experiments showed: (1) Leaf area index could be accurately determined from either PAR transmission through the canopy or hemispherical photography. For LAI determined from PAR transmission through the canopy, ecosystem light extinction coefficient (k) varied with season and was best described as a function of PAR transmission through the canopy. (2) A negative exponential function described the relationship between NDVI and LAI; (3) Allometric relationships overestimated LAI. Throughout the two years of this study, LAI was always higher in elevated C_a, rising from, 20% during winter, to 55% during summer. This seasonality was driven by a more rapid development of leaf area during the spring and a relatively greater loss of leaf area during the winter, in elevated C_a. For this scrub‐oak ecosystem prior to canopy closure, increased leaf area was an indirect mechanism by which ecosystem C uptake and canopy N content were increased in elevated C_a. In addition, increased LAI decreased potential reductions in canopy transpiration from decreases in stomatal conductance in elevated C_a. These findings have important implications for biogeochemical cycles of C, N and H₂O in woody ecosystems regenerating from disturbance in elevated C_a.     

Growth enhancement due to global atmospheric change as predicted by terrestrial ecosystem models: consistent with US forest inventory data

Small reported growth enhancement factors based on analyses of forest inventory data from the eastern USA ( Caspersen et al. 2000 , Science, 290, 1148–1151) have been interpreted as evidence against CO₂ fertilization in natural forests. We show to the contrary that growth enhancement in response to rising CO₂, as found in ecosystems with experimental CO₂ enrichment and implemented in terrestrial ecosystem models, is consistent with the data that have been presented within their uncertainties. Comparing forest inventory data with results of an empirical model of age‐dependent biomass accumulation, we find that growth enhancement of plausible magnitude could not be detected in these data, even if it were present. Although forest regrowth due to land‐use change is recognized as an important cause of carbon uptake by eastern US forests, forest inventory data do not provide a basis for eliminating environmentally induced growth enhancement as a substantial contribution to the global terrestrial carbon sink.     

Stream ecosystem responses to the 2007 spring freeze in the southeastern United States: unexpected effects of climate change

Some expected changes in climate resulting from human greenhouse gas emissions are clear and well documented, but others may be harder to predict because they involve extreme weather events or heretofore unusual combinations of weather patterns. One recent example of unusual weather that may become more frequent with climate change occurred in early spring 2007 when a large Arctic air mass moved into the eastern United States following a very warm late winter. In this paper, we document effects of this freeze event on Walker Branch, a well‐studied stream ecosystem in eastern Tennessee. The 2007 spring freeze killed newly grown leaf tissues in the forest canopy, dramatically increasing the amount of light reaching the stream. Light levels at the stream surface were sustained at levels considerably above those normal for the late spring and summer months due to the incomplete recovery of canopy leaf area. Increased light levels caused a cascade of ecological effects in the stream beginning with considerably higher (two–three times) rates of gross primary production (GPP) during the late spring and summer months when normally low light levels severely limit stream GPP. Higher rates of stream GPP in turn resulted in higher rates of nitrate (NO₃^?) uptake by the autotrophic community and lower NO₃^? concentrations in stream water. Higher rates of stream GPP in summer also resulted in higher growth rates of a dominant herbivore, the snail Elimia clavaeformis. Typically, during summer months net NO₃^? uptake and snail growth rates are zero to negative; however, in 2007 uptake and growth were maintained at moderate levels. These results show how changes in forest vegetation phenology can have dramatic effects on stream productivity at multiple trophic levels and on nutrient cycling as a result of tight coupling of forest and stream ecosystems. Thus, climate change‐induced changes in canopy structure and phenology may lead to large effects on stream ecosystems in the future.     

Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation

Numerous studies have underscored the importance of terrestrial ecosystems as an integral component of the Earth's climate system. This realization has already led to efforts to link simple equilibrium vegetation models with Atmospheric General Circulation Models through iterative coupling procedures. While these linked models have pointed to several possible climate–vegetation feedback mechanisms, they have been limited by two shortcomings: (i) they only consider the equilibrium response of vegetation to shifting climatic conditions and therefore cannot be used to explore transient interactions between climate and vegetation; and (ii) the representations of vegetation processes and land-atmosphere exchange processes are still treated by two separate models and, as a result, may contain physical or ecological inconsistencies. Here we present, as a proof concept, a more tightly integrated framework for simulating global climate and vegetation interactions. The prototype coupled model consists of the GENESIS (version 2) Atmospheric General Circulation Model and the IBIS (version 1) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The two models are directly coupled through a common treatment of land surface and ecophysiological processes, which is used to calculate the energy, water, carbon, and momentum fluxes between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere. On one side of the interface, GENESIS simulates the physics and general circulation of the atmosphere. On the other side, IBIS predicts transient changes in the vegetation structure through changes in the carbon balance and competition among plants within terrestrial ecosystems. As an initial test of this modelling framework, we perform a 30 year simulation in which the coupled model is supplied with modern CO₂ concentrations, observed ocean temperatures, and modern insolation. In this exploratory study, we run the GENESIS atmospheric model at relatively coarse horizontal resolution (4.5° latitude by 7.5° longitude) and IBIS at moderate resolution (2° latitude by 2° longitude). We initialize the models with globally uniform climatic conditions and the modern distribution of potential vegetation cover. While the simulation does not fully reach equilibrium by the end of the run, several general features of the coupled model behaviour emerge. We compare the results of the coupled model against the observed patterns of modern climate. The model correctly simulates the basic zonal distribution of temperature and precipitation, but several important regional biases remain. In particular, there is a significant warm bias in the high northern latitudes, and cooler than observed conditions over the Himalayas, central South America, and north-central Africa. In terms of precipitation, the model simulates drier than observed conditions in much of South America, equatorial Africa and Indonesia, with wetter than observed conditions in northern Africa and China. Comparing the model results against observed patterns of vegetation cover shows that the general placement of forests and grasslands is roughly captured by the model. In addition, the model simulates a roughly correct separation of evergreen and deciduous forests in the tropical, temperate and boreal zones. However, the general patterns of global vegetation cover are only approximately correct: there are still significant regional biases in the simulation. In particular, forest cover is not simulated correctly in large portions of central Canada and southern South America, and grasslands extend too far into northern Africa. These preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of coupling climate models with fully dynamic representations of the terrestrial biosphere. Continued development of fully coupled climate-vegetation models will facilitate the exploration of a broad range of global change issues, including the potential role of vegetation feedbacks within the climate system, and the impact of climate variability and transient climate change on the terrestrial biosphere.     

Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia

We present a first assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the endemic flora of Namibia, and on its vegetation structure and function, for a projected climate in ～2050 and ～2080. We used both niche‐based models (NBM) to evaluate the sensitivity of 159 endemic species to climate change (of an original 1020 plant species modeled) and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) to assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning. Endemic species modeled by NBM are moderately sensitive to projected climate change. Fewer than 5% are predicted to experience complete range loss by 2080, although more than 47% of the species are expected to be vulnerable (range reduction >30%) by 2080 if they are assumed unable to migrate. Disaggregation of results by life‐form showed distinct patterns. Endemic species of perennial herb, geophyte and tree life‐formsare predicted to be negatively impacted in Namibia, whereas annual herb and succulent endemic species remain relatively stable by 2050 and 2080. Endemic annual herb species are even predicted to extend their range north‐eastward into the tree and shrub savanna with migration, and tolerance of novel substrates. The current protected area network is predicted to meet its mandate by protecting most of the current endemicity in Namibia into the future. Vegetation simulated by DGVM is projected to experience a reduction in cover, net primary productivity and leaf area index throughout much of the country by 2050, with important implications for the faunal component of Namibia's ecosystems, and the agricultural sector. The plant functional type (PFT) composition of the major biomes may be substantially affected by climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂– currently widespread deciduous broad leaved trees and C₄ PFTs decline, with the C₄ PFT particularly negatively affected by rising atmospheric CO₂ impacts by ～2080 and deciduous broad leaved trees more likely directly impacted by drying and warming. The C₃ PFT may increase in prominence in the northwestern quadrant of the country by ～2080 as CO₂ concentrations increase. These results suggest that substantial changes in species diversity, vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning can be expected in Namibia with anticipated climate change, although endemic plant richness may persist in the topographically diverse central escarpment region.     

Substantial variation in leaf senescence times among 1360 temperate woody plant species: implications for phenology and ecosystem processes

Background and Aims Autumn leaf senescence marks the end of the growing season in temperate ecosystems. Its timing influences a number of ecosystem processes, including carbon, water and nutrient cycling. Climate change is altering leaf senescence phenology and, as those changes continue, it will affect individual woody plants, species and ecosystems. In contrast to spring leaf out times, however, leaf senescence times remain relatively understudied. Variation in the phenology of leaf senescence among species and locations is still poorly understood.Methods Leaf senescence phenology of 1360 deciduous plant species at six temperate botanical gardens in Asia, North America and Europe was recorded in 2012 and 2013. This large data set was used to explore ecological and phylogenetic factors associated with variation in leaf senescence.Key Results Leaf senescence dates among species varied by 3 months on average across the six locations. Plant species tended to undergo leaf senescence in the same order in the autumns of both years at each location, but the order of senescence was only weakly correlated across sites. Leaf senescence times were not related to spring leaf out times, were not evolutionarily conserved and were only minimally influenced by growth habit, wood anatomy and percentage colour change or leaf drop. These weak patterns of leaf senescence timing contrast with much stronger leaf out patterns from a previous study.Conclusions The results suggest that, in contrast to the broader temperature effects that determine leaf out times, leaf senescence times are probably determined by a larger or different suite of local environmental effects, including temperature, soil moisture, frost and wind. Determining the importance of these factors for a wide range of species represents the next challenge for understanding how climate change is affecting the end of the growing season and associated ecosystem processes.     

Consequences of CO2 and light interactions for leaf phenology, growth, and senescence in Quercus rubra

We investigated how light and CO₂ levels interact to influence growth, phenology, and the physiological processes involved in leaf senescence in red oak (Quercus rubra) seedlings. We grew plants in high and low light and in elevated and ambient CO₂. At the end of three years of growth, shade plants showed greater biomass enhancement under elevated CO₂ than sun plants. We attribute this difference to an increase in leaf area ratio (LAR) in shade plants relative to sun plants, as well as to an ontogenetic effect: as plants increased in size, the LAR declined concomitant with a decline in biomass enhancement under elevated CO₂ Elevated CO₂ prolonged the carbon gain capacity of shade‐grown plants during autumnal senescence, thus increasing their functional leaf lifespan. The prolongation of carbon assimilation, however, did not account for the increased growth enhancement in shade plants under elevated CO₂. Elevated CO₂ did not significantly alter leaf phenology. Nitrogen concentrations in both green and senesced leaves were lower under elevated CO₂ and declined more rapidly in sun leaves than in shade leaves. Similar to nitrogen concentration, the initial slope of A/C_i curves indicated that Rubisco activity declined more rapidly in sun plants than in shade plants, particularly under elevated CO₂. Absolute levels of chlorophyll were affected by the interaction of CO₂ and light, and chlorophyll content declined to a minimal level in sun plants sooner than in shade plants. These declines in N concentration, in the initial slope of A/C_i curves, and in chlorophyll content were consistent with declining photosynthesis, such that elevated CO₂ accelerated senescence in sun plants and prolonged leaf function in shade plants. These results have implications for the carbon economy of seedlings and the regeneration of red oak under global change conditions.     

高寒草甸生态系统中牦牛体重和采食量动态模型的研究

高寒草甸生态系统中牦牛体重和采食量动态模型的研究黄大明（清华大学生物科学与技术系,北京１０００８４）赵松岭（兰州大学,兰州７３００００）Ｄｙｎａｍｉｃｍｏｄｅｌｓｏｆｙａｋｌｉｖｅｗｅｉｇｈｔａｎｄｉｔｓｉｎｔａｋｅｉｎａｌｐｉｎｅｍｅａｄｏｗｅｃｏ...     

Use of models for integrated assessment of ecosystem health

An argument is presented for a greater use of numerical models in integrated assessment of ecosystem health. Ecosystem health has many facets which are interconnected and interact, and which can only be measured in integrated assessments. Modelling is an essential feature of integrated assessment being one of the few ways human groups can form a consensus understanding of the complex dynamics which occur. Functional assumptions are made explicit. The argument is expanded in response to a series of key questions: What is ecosystem health? How do we do integrated assessments? What is modelling? What are some successful examples? What should one conclude? The answers are illustrated with references to the International Joint Commission's program to develop and implement Remedial Action Plans for the Great Lakes' Areas of Concern, particularly in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario. Three recommendations are offered: (i) Increase the use of models, (ii) Build models with existing data and hypotheses before initiating new programs, and (iii) Allow for iterative model development but be prepared to build a new model when a new problem arises.     

Strong correlation between isoprene emission and gross photosynthetic capacity during leaf phenology of the tropical tree species Hymenaea courbaril with fundamental changes in volatile organic compounds emission composition during early leaf development

Changes of the volatile organic compounds (VOC) emission capacity and composition of different developmental stages of the tropical tree species Hymenaea courbaril were investigated under field conditions at a remote Amazonian rainforest site. The basal emission capacity of isoprene changed considerably over the course of leaf development, from young to mature and to senescent leaves, ultimately spanning a wide range of observed isoprene basal emission capacities from 0.7 to 111.5 µg C g^?1 h^?1 during the course of the year. By adjusting the standard emission factors for individual days, the diel courses of instantaneous isoprene emission rates could nevertheless adequately be modelled by a current isoprene algorithm. The results demonstrate the inadequacy of using one single standard emission factor to represent the VOC emission capacity of tropical vegetation for an entire seasonal cycle. A strong linear correlation between the isoprene emission capacity and the gross photosynthetic capacity (GP_max) covering all developmental stages and seasons was observed. The present results provide evidence that leaf photosynthetic properties may confer a valuable basis to model the seasonal variation of isoprenoid emission capacity; especially in tropical regions where the environmental conditions vary less than in temperate regions. In addition to induction and variability of isoprene emission during early leaf development, considerable amounts of monoterpenes were emitted in a light‐dependent manner exclusively in the period between bud break and leaf maturity. The fundamental change in emission composition during this stage as a consequence of resource availability (supply side control) or as a plant's response to the higher defence demand of young emerging leaves (demand‐side control) is discussed. The finding of a temporary emergence of monoterpene emission may be of general interest in understanding both the ecological functions of isoprenoid production and the regulatory processes involved.     

Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate

Responses of biota to climate change take a number of forms including distributional shifts, behavioural changes and life history changes. This study examined an extensive set of biological records to investigate changes in the timing of life history transitions (specifically emergence) in British Odonata between 1960 and 2004. The results show that there has been a significant, consistent advance in phenology in the taxon as a whole over the period of warming that is mediated by life history traits. British odonates significantly advanced the leading edge (first quartile date) of the flight period by a mean of 1.51 ±0.060 (SEM, n=17) days per decade or 3.08±1.16 (SEM, n=17) days per degree rise in temperature when phylogeny is controlled for. This study represents the first review of changes in odonate phenology in relation to climate change. The results suggest that the damped temperature oscillations experienced by aquatic organisms compared with terrestrial organisms are sufficient to evoke phenological responses similar to those of purely terrestrial taxa.     

Fishery-induced changes in a marine ecosystem: insight from models of the Gulf of Thailand

Two mass-balance trophic models are constructed to describe the Gulf of Thailand ecosystem (10–50 m depth): one model pertains to the initial phase of fisheries development, and the other to when the resources were severely depleted. The two phases are compared, and changes brought about by fishing discussed. A dynamic simulation model, Ecosim, is then used successfully to reproduce the 1980 state of the fishery based on the 1963 model and the development in catches. In addition the 1980 model is used to predict how the ecosystem groups may bounce back following marked reduction in fishing pressure. Finally, the 1963 model is used to study alternative scenarios for how the fisheries development could take place, notably the effect of exploiting only the resources of larger species. The study validates that the Ecosim model can be used to predict ecosystem level changes following changes in fishing pressure, therefore fishing induced changes can to a large extent explain the changes in ecosystem pools and fluxes observed over time.