Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest

Forest fires are a significant and natural element of the circumboreal forest. Fire activity is strongly linked to weather, and increased fire activity due to climate change is anticipated or arguably has already occurred. Recent studies suggest a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century. Fire management agencies' ability to cope with these increases in fire activity is limited, as these organizations operate with a narrow margin between success and failure; a disproportionate number of fires may escape initial attack under a warmer climate, resulting in an increase in area burned that will be much greater than the corresponding increase in fire weather severity. There may be only a decade or two before increased fire activity means fire management agencies cannot maintain their current levels of effectiveness.     

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from 'natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.     

The response of mammals to forest fire and timber harvest in the North American boreal forest

1. This paper reviews and compares the effects of forest fire and timber harvest on mammalian abundance and diversity, throughout successional time in the boreal forest of North America. 2. Temporal trends in mammal abundance and diversity are generally similar for both harvested and burned stands, with some differences occurring in the initiation stage (0–10 years post disturbance). 3. Small mammals and ungulates are most abundant immediately post disturbance, and decrease as stands age. Lynxes and hares utilize mid-successional stands, but are rare in young and old stands. Bats, arboreal sciurids and mustelids increase in abundance with stand age, and are most abundant in old growth. 4. Substantial gaps in the data exist for carnivores; the response of these species to fire and harvest requires research, as predator–prey interactions can affect mammal community structure in both early and late successional stages. 5. The lack of explicit treatment of in-stand forest structure post disturbance, in the reviewed literature made comparisons difficult. Where forest structure was considered, the presence of downed woody material, live residual trees and standing dead wood were shown to facilitate convergence of mammal communities to a pre-disturbance state for both disturbance types. 6. Mammalian assemblages differed considerably between successional stages, emphasizing the importance of maintaining stands of each successional stage on the landscape when implementing forest management strategies.     

Pyrogeographic models,feedbacks and the future of global fire regimes

Conceptual and phenomenological macroecological models of current global fire activity have demonstrated the overwhelming control exerted by primary productivity. Fire activity is very high in savanna regions with intermediate primary productivity, and very low in both densely forested regions with high productivity and arid/cold regions with low productivity. However, predicting future global fire activity using such macroecological models of fire's global ‘niche’ may not be possible because of the feedbacks between fire, climate and vegetation that underpin the fire?productivity relationship. Improving forecasts of global fire activity demands the use of dynamic models to determine how climate, CO₂, vegetation (i.e. canopy closure and plant functional types) and primary productivity constrain fire and evaluation of the strength of feedbacks amongst these variables.     

Spatial and temporal variations in boreal forest fire frequency in northern Alberta

Abstract. Spatial and temporal variations in fire frequency in the boreal forest of Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP) were assessed using forest stand age, fire scar and historical data. I test the hypotheses that (1) fire frequency is higher in jack pine forests and aspen forests than in black spruce forests and white spruce forests, (2) these variations in fire frequency can be related to the mean waterbreak distance (MWD) around a site and (3) fire frequency has changed over the past 300 years. The fire cycles (the time required to burn an area equal in size to the entire study area) in jack pine forests (39 years) and in aspen forests (39 years) were significantly shorter than those in black spruce forests (78 years) and in white spruce forests (96 years). The length of the fire cycle varies inversely with the MWD around a site, and the MWD was significantly higher in jack pine and aspen forests than in black or white spruce forests. It is suggested that covariations between soil type and the MWD influence, respectively, variations in forest dominant and fire frequency. A change in fire frequency at 1860 was apparent in the fire history for all of WBNP, the black spruce dominated stands, and the near and medium MWD classes. The fire cycle estimates for these classes were all significantly shorter during the period 1750 to 1859 (fire cycles = 25–49 years) than they were in the period 1860 to 1989 (fire cycles = 59–89 years). The possible roles of changes in climate and aboriginal burning practices in causing the temporal change in fire frequency are discussed.     

Moving from autonomous to planned adaptation in the montane forests of southeastern Australia under changing fire regimes

Forest ecosystems and their associated natural, cultural and economic values are highly vulnerable to climate driven changes in fire regimes. A detailed knowledge of forest ecosystem responses to altered fire regimes is a necessary underpinning to inform options for adaptive responses under climate change, as well as for providing a basis for understanding how patterns of distribution of vegetation communities that comprise montane forest ecosystems may change in the future. Unplanned consequential adaptation of both natural and human systems, i.e. autonomous adaptation, will occur without planned intervention, with potentially negative impacts on ecosystem services. The persistence of forest stands under changing fire regimes and the maintenance of the ecosystem services that they provide pivot upon underlying response traits, such as the ability to resprout, that determine the degree to which composition, structure and function are likely to change. The integration of ecosystem dynamics into conceptual models and their use in exploring adaptation pathways provides options for policy makers and managers to move from autonomous to planned adaptation responses. Understanding where autonomous adaptation provides a benefit and where it proves potentially undesirable is essential to inform adaptation choices. Plausible scenarios of ecological change can be developed to improve an understanding of the nature and timing of interventions and their consequences, well before natural and human systems autonomously adapt in ways that may be detrimental to the long‐term provision of ecosystem services. We explore the utility of this approach using examples from temperate montane forest ecosystems of southeastern Australia.     

澳大利亚森林火灾的管理与火生态的研究

澳大利亚是火灾频发的地区．每年因森林火灾的危害都要造成相当的社会、经济损失及生态环境的破坏,故火生态的研究及火的管理在澳大利亚的生态学研究中一直占有重要地位．本文主要讨论了澳洲森林大火起燃的物理过程和机制、可燃物的特征、林火的特点、习性及对生态环境的影响和如何控制和减少火灾的危害性,达到对火进行利用、控制和管理的目的．     

Understory vegetation indicates historic fire regimes in ponderosa pine‐dominated ecosystems in the Colorado Front Range

Question: Can current understory vegetation composition across an elevation gradient of Pinus ponderosa‐dominated forests be used to identify areas that, prior to 20th century fire suppression, were characterized by different fire frequencies and severities (i.e., historic fire regimes)? Location: P. ponderosa‐dominated forests in the montane zone of the northern Colorado Front Range, Boulder and Larimer Counties, Colorado, USA. Methods: Understory species composition and stand characteristics were sampled at 43 sites with previously determined fire histories. Indicator species analyses and indirect ordination were used to determine: (1) if stands within a particular historic fire regime had similar understory compositions, and (2) if understory vegetation was associated with the same environmental gradients that influence fire regime. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to ascertain which species could predict fire regimes. Results: Indicator species analysis identified 34 understory species as significant indicators of three distinct historic fire regimes along an elevation gradient from low‐ to high‐elevation P. ponderosa forests. A predictive model derived from a classification tree identified five species as reliable predictors of fire regime. Conclusions: P. ponderosa‐dominated forests shaped by three distinct historic fire regimes have significantly different floristic composition, and current understory compositions can be used as reliable indicators of historical differences in past fire frequency and severity. The feasibility demonstrated in the current study using current understory vegetation properties to detect different historic fire regimes, should be examined in other fire‐prone forest ecosystems.     

我国北方针叶林人为火发生的预测模型

我国北方针叶林带是重要的森林资源储藏地,也是林火发生的重灾区,其自然火和人为火所占比例相当. 气象因子、地形特征、植被条件、人为基础设施等因素对人为火发生具有显著影响,国内目前应用空间分析技术对北方针叶林带人为火影响因子的研究还存在一定不确定性. 本文基于1974—2009年间人为火的空间地理坐标,结合研究地的气象因子、基础地理信息及矢量化林相图,应用ArcGIS 10.0中的空间分析工具和SPSS 19.0的逻辑斯蒂回归模型对影响人为火发生的主要驱动因子进行分析,并建立人为火发生的概率模型. 利用HADCM2模式下研究区域未来气象数据对塔河地区2015年人为火发生情况进行计算.结果表明： 距离铁路距离（x₁）和平均相对湿度（x₂）对研究区域人为火发生具有显著影响,并得到火险概率模型P=1/［1+e^{-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x₂)}］. 模型校验结果显示,模型的准确度可达到80%.林火发生预测结果表明,塔河地区2015年 4—6月、8月为人为火高发期,其中,4—5月的林火发生概率最高.从火险空间分布来看,高火险主要集中在塔河西部和西南部,铁路线路主要包含在此区域.     

Historic distribution and driving factors of human-caused fires in the Chinese boreal forest between 1972 and 2005

Aims The pattern and driving factors of forest fires are of interest for fire occurrence prediction and forest fire management. The aims of the study were: (i) to describe the history of human-caused fires by season and size of burned area over time; (ii) to identify the spatial patterns of human-caused fires and test for the existence of 'hotspots' to determine their exact locations in the Daxing'an Mountains; (iii) to determine the driving factors that determine the spatial distribution and the possibility of human-caused fire occurrence.Methods In this study, K -function and Kernel density estimation were used to analyze the spatial pattern of human-caused fires. The analysis was conducted in S-plus and ArcGIS environments, respectively. The analysis of driving factors was performed in SPSS 19.0 based on a logistic regression model. The variables used to identify factors that influence fire occurrence included vegetation types, meteorological conditions, socioeconomic factors, topography and infrastructure factors, which were extracted and collected through the spatial analysis mode of ArcGIS and from official statistics, respectively.Important findings The annual number of human-caused fires and the area burnt have declined since 1987 due to the implementation of a forest fire protection act. There were significant spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variations in the distribution of human-caused fires in the Daxing'an Mountains. The heterogeneity was caused by elevation, distance to the nearest railway, forest type and temperature. A logistic regression model was developed to predict the likelihood of human-caused fire occurrence in the Daxing'an Mountains; its global accuracy attained 64.8%. The model was thus comparable to other relevant studies.     

A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications

Aim Patterns of fire regimes across Australia exhibit biogeographic variation in response to four processes. Variations in area burned and fire frequency result from differences in the rates of ‘switching’ of biomass growth, availability to burn, fire weather and ignition. Therefore differing processes limit fire (i.e. the lowest rate of switching) in differing ecosystems. Current and future trends in fire frequency were explored on this basis. Location Case studies of forests (cool temperate to tropical) and woodlands (temperate to arid) were examined. These represent a broad range of Australian biomes and current fire regimes. Methods Information on the four processes was applied to each case study and the potential minimum length of interfire interval was predicted and compared to current trends. The potential effects of global change on the processes were then assessed and future trends in fire regimes were predicted. Results Variations in fire regimes are primarily related to fluctuations in available moisture and dominance by either woody or herbaceous plant cover. Fire in woodland communities (dry climates) is limited by growth of herbaceous fuels (biomass), whereas in forests (wet climates) limitation is by fuel moisture (availability to burn) and fire weather. Increasing dryness in woodland communities will decrease potential fire frequency, while the opposite applies in forests. In the tropics, both forms of limitation are weak due to the annual wet/dry climate. Future change may therefore be constrained. Main conclusions Increasing dryness may diminish fire activity over much of Australia (dominance of dry woodlands), though increases may occur in temperate forests. Elevated CO₂ effects may confound or reinforce these trends. The prognosis for the future fire regime in Australia is therefore uncertain.     

Mapping fire severity and fire extent in forest in Victoria for ecological and fuel outcomes

This study shows how high‐resolution (~15 cm) simultaneous colour and infra‐red digital aerial photography can be used to map both fire severity and, particularly, fire extent, in forest in south‐eastern Australia. The results show that this methodology is capable of detecting and mapping burnt and unburnt edges under unaffected forest canopy (i.e. still green) – that is, revealing the mosaic of burnt and unburnt areas that often result from planned landscape burning under mild weather conditions (i.e. with little of the brownish canopy scorch that results from more intense bushfires). This has important implications for both fuel management and ecology. It can answer the basic questions of fire and biodiversity managers following planned burning –’how much of the planned area burnt, and, within the burnt area, what aspects were burnt, and how hot did they burn?’ The analysis of fire extent by aspect showed that about 80% of southern and eastern aspects remained unburnt during broadscale autumn prescribed burning, with many of these moister aspects potentially providing longer unburnt refuges over multiple burn rotations. The fire severity and extent mapping products, produced using the methodology outlined in this study, have the potential to substantially increase the understanding of the ecological and fuel outcomes of landscape‐scale autumn prescribed burning.     

Changing sources of soil respiration with time since fire in a boreal forest

Radiocarbon signatures (Δ¹⁴C) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) provide a measure of the age of C being decomposed by microbes or respired by living plants. Over a 2‐year period, we measured Δ¹⁴C of soil respiration and soil CO₂ in boreal forest sites in Canada, which varied primarily in the amount of time since the last stand‐replacing fire. Comparing bulk respiration Δ¹⁴C with Δ¹⁴C of CO₂ evolved in incubations of heterotrophic (decomposing organic horizons) and autotrophic (root and moss) components allowed us to estimate the relative contributions of O horizon decomposition vs. plant sources. Although soil respiration fluxes did not vary greatly, differences in Δ¹⁴C of respired CO₂ indicated marked variation in respiration sources in space and time. The ¹⁴C signature of respired CO₂ respired from O horizon decomposition depended on the age of C substrates. These varied with time since fire, but consistently had Δ¹⁴C greater (averaging ～120‰) than autotrophic respiration. The Δ¹⁴C of autotrophically respired CO₂ in young stands equaled those expected for recent photosynthetic products (70‰ in 2003, 64‰ in 2004). CO₂ respired by black spruce roots in stands >40 years old had Δ¹⁴C up to 30‰ higher than recent photosynthates, indicating a significant contribution of C stored at least several years in plants. Decomposition of O horizon organic matter made up 20% or less of soil respiration in the younger (<40 years since fire) stands, increasing to ～50% in mature stands. This is a minimum for total heterotrophic contribution, since mineral soil CO₂ had Δ¹⁴C close to or less than those we have assigned to autotrophic respiration. Decomposition of old organic matter in mineral soils clearly contributed to soil respiration in younger stands in 2003, a very dry year, when Δ¹⁴C of soil respiration in younger successional stands dropped below those of the atmospheric CO₂.     

Applicability of remote sensing-based surface temperature regimes in determining deciduous phenology over boreal forest

Aims The study of deciduous phenology over boreal forest is important for understanding forest ecology and better management. In this paper, our objective was to determine the phenological stages of deciduous leaf out (DLO) over the deciduous-dominant [i.e. trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides)] stands in the Canadian Province of Alberta.Methods During the period 2006–2008, we used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based 8-day surface temperature (T S) images to calculate accumulated growing degree days (AGDD: a favourable temperature regime for plant growth). The temporal dynamics of AGDD in conjunction with in situ DLO observations were then analysed in determining the optimal threshold for DLO in 2006 (i.e. 80 degree days).Important findings The implementation of the above-mentioned optimal threshold revealed reasonable agreements (i.e. on an average 91.9% of the DLO cases within ±2 periods or ±16 days of deviations during 2007–2008) in comparison to the in situ observed data. The developments could be useful in various forestry-related applications, e.g. plant growth and its ability of exchanging atmospheric carbon dioxide, forest ecohydrology, risk of insect infestation, forest fire and impact of climate change, among others.