Ten year mortality in patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE--To describe the 10 year mortality in patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction. DESIGN--Follow up of all patients below 76 years of age admitted with acute chest pain to 16 coronary care units participating in the Danish verapamil infarction trial in 1979-81. SUBJECTS--Of the 5993 patients included, 2586 had definite infarction, 402 had probable infarction, and 3005 did not have infarction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Death and cause of death. Standardised mortality ratio (observed mortality/expected mortality in background population). RESULTS--The estimated 10 year mortalities were 58.8%, 55.5%, and 42.8% in patients with definite, probable, and no infarction, respectively (P < 0.0001). Stratified Cox''s analysis identified a hazard ratio for mortality of 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.44) for probable infarction compared with no infarction and of 1.15 (1.00 to 1.32) for definite compared with probable infarction. The standardised mortality ratio in the first year was 7.1 (6.5 to 7.8) for definite infarction, 5.0 (3.6 to 6.3) for probable infarction, and 4.7 (4.2 to 5.2) for no infarction. From the second year and onwards the annual standardised mortality ratio in the three groups did not differ significantly. Cardiac causes of deaths were recorded in 89%, 84%, and 71% of the deaths in patients with definite, probable, and no infarction, respectively. CONCLUSIONS--The 10 year mortality of patients with and without infarction is significantly higher than in the background population. Most deaths are caused by coronary heart disease, and these patients should consequently be further evaluated at the time of discharge and followed up closely.     

Myocardial Infarction: A Five-Year Follow-up of Patients

Patients with acute myocardial infarction (2,020) admitted to coronary care units (CCU) in Utah were studied for five years. Of these, 1,641 (81.4 percent) survived to leave the hospital. The male to female ratio was 3.5:1. At four months, one year and yearly thereafter from the date of admission to CCU, patients were mailed follow-up questionnaires. Cause of death was obtained from autopsy reports and death certificates. Patients were grouped yearly by the number of cardiac symptoms reported. Of patients discharged whose cases were followed, 925 (61.9 percent) were alive after five years. Reinfarction was the major cause of death in the hospital; however, during follow-up only 36.8 percent of deaths were attributable to myocardial infarction. At follow-up after a year, fewer cardiac symptoms were reported by patients who survived to the fifth year of follow-up than by patients who did not. Women were older and showed a higher death rate during follow-up. Increasing age was found to be a determining factor in long-term mortality after acute myocardial infarction.     

Sex and death: are they related? Findings from the Caerphilly Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relation between frequency of orgasm and mortality. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study with a 10 year follow up. SETTING: The town of Caerphilly, South Wales, and five adjacent villages. SUBJECTS: 918 men aged 45-59 at time of recruitment between 1979 and 1983. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All deaths and deaths from coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Mortality risk was 50% lower in the group with high orgasmic frequency than in the group with low orgasmic frequency, with evidence of a dose-response relation across the groups. Age adjusted odds ratio for all cause mortality was 2.0 for the group with low frequency of orgasm (95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.5, test for trend P = 0.02). With adjustment for risk factors this became 1.9 (1.0 to 3.4, test for trend P = 0.04). Death from coronary heart disease and from other causes showed similar associations with frequency of orgasm, although the gradient was most marked for deaths from coronary heart disease. Analysed in terms of actual frequency of orgasm, the odds ratio for total mortality associated with an increase in 100 orgasms per year was 0.64 (0.44 to 0.95). CONCLUSION: Sexual activity seems to have a protective effect on men''s health.     

Long-term survival of patients with breast cancer: a study of the curability of the disease.

A retrospective analysis was made of 3878 cases of breast carcinoma first seen in Edinburgh from 1954 to 1964. During this time there was a policy to treat breast cancer by simple mastectomy and x-ray therapy, and over 90% of cases classified as international stages I and II were so treated. The mortality in these women was compared with that in an equivalent normal population using Scottish national age-specific death rates. For every year of follow-up within 20 years of initial treatment there was an excess mortality from all causes. There was an overall excess mortality of 58% among patients with breast cancer 15-20 years after initial treatment, and 20 times more deaths occurred in this period from breast cancer than in a normal population. For patients disease-free after 15 years there was still a 28% excess mortality from all causes. Factors known to be of major prognostic significance for five-year survivorship had less influence than might have been expected when the ratio of observed to expected deaths was considered for longer periods of follow-up. The effect of clinical staging (I, II, or III), though initially marked, largely disappeared by the 10th year of follow-up, and after allowing for age there was no evidence beyond 10 years of an effect on survival of the original stage of the disease. Similarly, the effect of tumour size on survival disappeared after 10 years. Women who were premenopausal at presentation still had a significant excess of deaths in the fourth quinquennium of follow-up. In the menopausal and postmenopausal groups combined there was still a small non-significant excess of deaths from all causes after 15 years but this almost disappeared when patients who had already relapsed were excluded. In terms of overall mortality only patients who have undergone the menopause before presentation and who are disease-free 15 years after primary treatment may prove to be cured by conventional techniques such as simple mastectomy and postoperative radiotherapy.     

The Effect of Tobacco Control Measures during a Period of Rising Cardiovascular Disease Risk in India: A Mathematical Model of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Background

We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade.

Methods and Findings

A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model''s results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban) for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%–34%) if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system improvements.

Conclusions

Smoke-free laws and substantially increased tobacco taxation appear to be markedly potent population measures to avert future cardiovascular deaths in India. Despite the rise in co-morbid cardiovascular disease risk factors like hyperlipidemia and hypertension in low- and middle-income countries, tobacco control is likely to remain a highly effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular deaths. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Trial of early nifedipine in acute myocardial infarction: the Trent study.

Over 30 months 9292 consecutive patients admitted to nine coronary care units with suspected myocardial infarction were considered for admission to a randomised double blind study comparing the effect on mortality of nifedipine 10 mg four times a day with that of placebo. Among the 4801 patients excluded from the study the overall one month fatality rate was 18.2% and the one month fatality rate in those with definite myocardial infarction 26.8%. A total of 4491 patients fulfilled the entry criteria and were randomly allocated to nifedipine or placebo immediately after assessment in the coronary care unit. Roughly 64% of patients in both treatment groups sustained an acute myocardial infarction. The overall one month fatality rates were 6.3% in the placebo treated group and 6.7% in the nifedipine treated group. Most of the deaths occurred in patients with an in hospital diagnosis of myocardial infarction, and their one month fatality rates were 9.3% for the placebo group and 10.2% for the nifedipine group. These differences were not statistically significant. Subgroup analysis also did not suggest any particular group of patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction who might benefit from early nifedipine treatment in the dose studied.     

Mortality of bereavement.

The death rate of a group of 87 widowers and 279 widows was followed for two years from the death of their spouses. The life tables for England and Wales 1970-2 indicated that the expected number of deaths would be 6 men and 11 women. The actual numbers (9 men and 11 women, 5.5%) were not significantly different, though there were more widowers'' deaths during the first six months of bereavement. There was no significantly greater mortality among those whose spouses had died in hospital; but when this had occurred the health of the second spouse was likely to have been poorer than that of those whose spouses had died at home.     

Variation in Risk-Standardized Mortality of Stroke among Hospitals in Japan

Despite recent advances in care, stroke remains a life-threatening disease. Little is known about current hospital mortality with stroke and how it varies by hospital in a national clinical setting in Japan. Using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database (a national inpatient database in Japan), we identified patients aged ≥20 years who were admitted to the hospital with a primary diagnosis of stroke within 3 days of stroke onset from April 2012 to March 2013. We constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to predict in-hospital death for each patient with patient-level factors, including age, sex, type of stroke, Japan Coma Scale, and modified Rankin Scale. We defined risk-standardized mortality ratio as the ratio of the actual number of in-hospital deaths to the expected number of such deaths for each hospital. A hospital-level multivariable linear regression was modeled to analyze the association between risk-standardized mortality ratio and hospital-level factors. We performed a patient-level Cox regression analysis to examine the association of in-hospital death with both patient-level and hospital-level factors. Of 176,753 eligible patients from 894 hospitals, overall in-hospital mortality was 10.8%. The risk-standardized mortality ratio for stroke varied widely among the hospitals; the proportions of hospitals with risk-standardized mortality ratio categories of ≤0.50, 0.51–1.00, 1.01–1.50, 1.51–2.00, and >2.00 were 3.9%, 47.9%, 41.4%, 5.2%, and 1.5%, respectively. Academic status, presence of a stroke care unit, higher hospital volume and availability of endovascular therapy had a significantly lower risk-standardized mortality ratio; distance from the patient’s residence to the hospital was not associated with the risk-standardized mortality ratio. Our results suggest that stroke-ready hospitals play an important role in improving stroke mortality in Japan.     

The Hound of the Baskervilles effect: natural experiment on the influence of psychological stress on timing of death

ObjectiveTo determine whether cardiac mortality is abnormally high on days considered unlucky: Chinese and Japanese people consider the number 4 unlucky, white Americans do not.DesignExamination of cardiac and non-cardiac mortality on and around the fourth of each month in Chinese and Japanese subjects and white controls.SettingUnited States.SubjectsAll Chinese and Japanese (n=209 908) and white (n=47 328 762) Americans whose computerised death certificates were recorded between the beginning of January 1973 and the end of December 1998.ResultsCardiac mortality in Chinese and Japanese people peaked on the fourth of the month. The peak was particularly large for deaths from chronic heart disease (ratio of observed to expected deaths = 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.21) and still larger for deaths from chronic heart disease in California (1.27, 1.15 to 1.39). Within this group, inpatients showed a particularly large peak on the fourth day(1.45, 1.19 to 1.81). The peak was not followed by a compensatory drop in number of deaths. White controls, matched on age, sex, marital status, hospital status, location, and cause of death, showed no similar peak in cardiac mortality.ConclusionsOur findings of excess cardiac mortality on “unlucky” days are consistent with the hypothesis that cardiac mortality increases on psychologically stressful occasions. The results are inconsistent with nine other possible explanations for the findings—for example, the fourth day peak does not seem to occur because of changes in the patient''s diet, alcohol intake, exercise, or drug regimens.

What is already known on this topic

Laboratory studies show that cardiovascular changes occur after mild psychological stress, but it is unclear whether fatal heart attacks increase after psychological stressPrevious non-laboratory studies were unable to control for physical and medical changes associated with most stressful occasions

What this study adds

Unlike white people, Chinese and Japanese associate the number 4 with death.Cardiac mortality in Chinese and Japanese Americans peaks on the fourth day of the month, even though this date is not consistently associated with changes in the physical or medical environmentIn The Hound of the Baskervilles, Charles Baskerville died from a heart attack induced by stress; this “Baskerville effect” seems to exist in fact as well as in fiction     

Risk of early death in extremely overweight young men.

The effect of pronounced obesity in youth on later mortality was studied in 1239 men with extreme overweight, defined as a weight/height 2 greater than or equal to 31 kg/m2, in the population of 331 919 men liable for military service in the Copenhagen area during the period 1943-1977. A random sample of 2948 drawn from the remaining study population served as a control group. All men were followed up until November 1980, by which time 33 deaths had occurred among the extremely overweight subjects compared with 89 in the control group. This gave a mortality ratio (observed to expected number of deaths) of 1.14 (95% confidence limit 0.91-1.40) for controls with a significantly greater mortality of 1.73 (95% confidence limit 1.20-2.41) for obese subjects. The relative risk, estimated from the survival time distributions, was fairly constant around 1.6 throughout the 37 years of observation. Taking into account age at and year of entry in a regression analysis did not change the relative mortality risk. The proportion of natural death was significantly higher in the obese group than in the control group until the age of 30 but not thereafter. Pronounced obesity in youth is a health hazard, manifesting itself particularly in a distinct increase in mortality from natural causes in early adulthood.     

What contribution has cardiac surgery made to the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease?

The number of deaths from coronary artery disease is declining in New Zealand as in some other Western countries. It has been estimated that in 1981 in the Auckland metropolitan area there were 126 fewer deaths than would have been expected from the data in 1974. The contribution made by cardiac surgery to this decline was assessed from the known numbers of patients who were operated on, from their survival rate, and from the predicted mortality of the surgical cohort had they not undergone operation. Such mortality was predicted from past studies of patients with similar symptoms, exercise data, studies of unstable angina, and the coronary artery surgical study registry. From this method it was estimated that coronary surgery accounted for 26% to 42% of the reduction in coronary deaths. Two previous studies estimated, from calculations based on the European study of patients with modest symptoms, that the contribution of cardiac surgery was much lower. Extrapolating data from one subset of patients to a second subset with quite different characteristics is a conceptual fallacy.     

Evolution précoce et tardive après pontage aortocoronarien: expérience de 500 cas.

Between 1971 and 1976, 500 patients underwent aortocoronary bypass surgery. There were 15 operative deaths (3%) and the total frequency of perioperative infarction was 7%. The operative mortality was 7.4% in unstable angina, as compared with 1.1% in stable angina (P less than 0.01). The proportion of grafts patent at 2 weeks was 92% and at 18 months 87.6%. Postoperative follow-up was complete for 99% of the patients. There were 15 late deaths (3%) and the rates of survival at 2 and 4 years were 94.4% and 92.1% respectively. The actuarial curve of survival after surgery was not significantly different from that of the general population. After a mean follow-up of 27 months 73% of the patients were completely free of angina and 19% were markedly improved. The rate of recurrence of angina averaged 10% per year and the annual infarction rate was 0.7%. Fourteen patients (3%) underwent reoperation during the follow-up period. Thus, coronary revascularization surgery offers effective and sustained relief of incapacitating angina and might also improve survival if the operative mortality is low.     

A demographic analysis of skeletons from the Larson site (39WW2) Walworth County,South Dakota: Vital statistics

A life table methodology was used for paleodemographic analysis of skeletons from the Larson site (39WW2), an Arikara village and cemetery dated to circa A.D. 1750–1785. Vital statistics on mortality, survivorship, age-specific probability of death, life expectancy and crude mortality rate were derived from skeletal data. The population had an extremely high infant mortality rate and high rates of childhood mortality. The lowest probability of death was for adolescents. Mortality increased for young adults, ages 15–19. This increase was especially marked for females, the actual peak of adult female mortality was during ages 15–19. A second mode in the female mortality curve occurred at ages 35–39. The greatest percentage of male deaths was observed in the fourth decade, ages 30–34. Only 4.0% of the population attained the age of 50. The population crude death rate was 76 per thousand per year. This estimate, although high, is congruent with archaeological and historical sources which report a rapid Arikara population decline during the Post-Contact period. Causes of specific deaths appear to be linked to childbirth (affecting mother and infant), starvation, diseases especially tuberculosis, and intertribal warfare.     

Mortality in over 350,000 Insured Swedish dogs from 1995–2000: I. Breed-, Gender-, Age- and Cause-specific Rates

This study presents data on over 350,000 insured Swedish dogs up to 10 years of age contributing to over one million dog-years at risk (DYAR) during 1995–2000. A total of 43,172 dogs died or were euthanised and of these 72% had a claim with a diagnosis for the cause of death. The overall total mortality was 393 deaths per 10,000 DYAR. Mortality rates are calculated for the 10 most common breeds, 10 breeds with high mortality and a group including all other breeds, crudely and for general causes of death. Proportional mortality is presented for several classifications. Five general causes accounted for 62% of the deaths with a diagnosis (i.e. tumour (18%), trauma (17%), locomotor (13%), heart (8%) and neurological (6%)). Mortality rates for the five most common diagnoses within the general causes of death are presented. These detailed statistics on mortality can be used in breed-specific strategies as well as for general health promotion programs. Further details on survival and relative risk by breed and age are presented in the companion paper [14].     

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968–2007

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.     

Left ventricular aneurysm: Twenty-year surgical experience with 1572 patients at the Texas Heart Institute

From January 1958 through December 1979, 1572 patients underwent surgery for left ventricular aneurysm (LVA) in our institution. The series included 1365 men and 207 women, with a ratio of 6.5:1. Ages ranged from 25 to 79 years, with a mean of 54.7 years. Most patients were in NYHA functional Class III or IV, and all had sustained at least one documented myocardial infarction. During the first decade, LVA resection alone was performed, but after the advent of aortocoronary bypass (ACB) surgery, the majority of patients underwent ACB along with LVA resection. Some required additional septoplasty, mitral valve replacement, annuloplasty, or aortic valve replacement. In all groups, the mortality was higher for women than for men. Early deaths were due primarily to acute or progressive myocardial failure secondary to recurrent myocardial infarction. Follow-up information for 6 months to 8 years was obtained by means of questionnaires submitted to patients and referring physicians. Of 475 patients who underwent LVA resection and ACB and who responded, 92.2% were either improved or asymptomatic.     

Sex related differences in short and long-term prognosis after acute myocardial infarction: 10 year follow up of 3073 patients in database of first Danish Verapamil Infarction Trial.

OBJECTIVE--To re-examine the prevailing hypothesis that women fare worse than men after acute myocardial infarction. DESIGN--10 year follow up of all patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction registered in the database of the Danish verapamil infarction trial in 1979-81. SETTING--16 coronary care units, covering a fifth of the total Danish population. PATIENTS--3073 consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction, 738 (24%) women and 2335 (76%) men. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Early mortality (before day 15). For patients alive on day 15: mortality, cause of death, admission with recurrent infarction, and mortality after reinfarction. RESULTS--Early mortality increased significantly with age (P < 0.0001) but was not significantly related to sex, with a 15 day mortality of 17% in women and 16% in men. Adjustment for age and sex simultaneously revealed a significant interaction (P = 0.02) between these variables, with a greater increase with age in early mortality for men than for women (early mortality was equal for the two sexes at age 64 years). Ten year mortality in patients alive on day 15 was 58.8%. The overall age adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for women versus men was 0.90 (0.80 to 1.01); 0.90 (0.78 to 1.04) for 10 year reinfarction (48.8%); and 0.98 (0.82 to 1.16) for 10 year mortality after reinfarction (82.3%). No difference in cause of death was found between the sexes. With a follow up of up to 10 years for patients alive on day 15 mortality, rate of reinfarction, and mortality after reinfarction increased with increasing age (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION--Sex by itself is not a risk factor after acute myocardial infarction.     

Estimated impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia mortality in South Africa, 1999 through 2016: An ecological modelling study

BackgroundData on the national-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on mortality are lacking from Africa. PCV was introduced in South Africa in 2009. We estimated the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa, while controlling for changes in mortality due to other interventions.Methods and findingsWe used national death registration data in South Africa from 1999 to 2016 to assess the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in all ages, with the exclusion of infants aged <1 month. We created a composite (synthetic) control using Bayesian variable selection of nondiarrheal, nonpneumonia, and nonpneumococcal deaths to estimate the number of expected all-cause pneumonia deaths in the absence of PCV introduction post 2009. We compared all-cause pneumonia deaths from the death registry to the expected deaths in 2012 to 2016. We also estimated the number of prevented deaths during 2009 to 2016. Of the 9,324,638 deaths reported in South Africa from 1999 to 2016, 12·6% were pneumonia-related.Compared to number of deaths expected, we estimated a 33% (95% credible interval (CrI) 26% to 43%), 23% (95%CrI 17% to 29%), 25% (95%CrI 19% to 32%), and 23% (95%CrI 11% to 32%) reduction in pneumonia mortality in children aged 1 to 11 months, 1 to 4 years, 5 to 7 years, and 8 to 18 years in 2012 to 2016, respectively. In total, an estimated 18,422 (95%CrI 12,388 to 26,978) pneumonia-related deaths were prevented from 2009 to 2016 in children aged <19 years. No declines were estimated observed among adults following PCV introduction. This study was mainly limited by coding errors in original data that could have led to a lower impact estimate, and unmeasured factors could also have confounded estimates.ConclusionsThis study found that the introduction of PCV was associated with substantial reduction in all-cause pneumonia deaths in children aged 1 month to <19 years. The model predicted an effect of PCV in age groups who were eligible for vaccination (1 months to 4 years), and an indirect effect in those too old (8 to 18 years) to be vaccinated. These findings support sustaining pneumococcal vaccination to reduce pneumonia-related mortality in children.

Jackie Kleynhans and colleagues investigate whether introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine may have reduced all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa.     

Impact of the new generation coronary care unit.

A 30-bed coronary care unit with facilities for fluoroscopy, haemodynamic monitoring, mechanical heart assistance, and long-term electrocardiographic monitoring operated at a reasonable cost over five years. Much of the work was entrusted to trained nurses, and there was close consultation with cardiac surgeons over those patients who needed catheterisation or surgery. New procedures greatly reduced the numbers of early deaths from cardiac arrest and cardiac failure but had less influence on late mortality. Hospital mortality for all 3353 patients was 6-8%, and for patients under 65 with definite infarction, who were admitted direct it was 5-7%.     

Comparison of the prediction by 27 different factors of coronary heart disease and death in men and women of the Scottish Heart Health Study: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare prediction by 27 different factors in men and women of coronary heart disease events, coronary deaths, and deaths from all causes. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Scottish population study. SUBJECTS: In 1984-7 random sampling of residents aged 40-59 produced 11,629 men and women who generated survey clinic questionnaires, examination findings, and blood and urine specimens. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Subsequent death, coronary artery surgery, and myocardial infarction. Risks were calculated for each category of factor or fifth of continuous variables. 27 factors were ranked by descending age adjusted hazard ratio of the top to bottom class in each factor, by sex and end point. RESULTS: Follow up averaged 7.6 years, during which the 5754 men had 404 coronary events, 159 coronary deaths, and 383 deaths and the 5875 women 177, 47, and 208 respectively. The rankings for factors for the three end points were mainly similar in men and women, although hazard ratios were often higher in women. Classical risk factors ranked better for predicting coronary risk than newer ones. Yet strong prediction of coronary risk was no guarantee of significant prediction of all cause mortality. Findings included an anomalous coronary protective role for type A behaviour in women; raised plasma fibrinogen as a strong predictor of all end points; and an unexpectedly powerful protective relation of dietary potassium to all cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These initial unifactorial rankings and comparisons must be interpreted with caution until potential interaction, confounding, and problems of measurement and causation are further explored.