Phenological stages of natural species and their use as climate indicators

 The objectives of this paper are to: (1) present 10 years of phenological data for nine natural species growing in a Mediterranean-type climate, (2) present threshold temperatures that were derived for the computation of cumulative degree-days (CDD), and (3) evaluate the sensitivity of the nine natural species to weather variability. The study was conducted at the Phenological Research Garden of Oristano, Sardinia, Italy, during the period 1986–96. The observations were made on five typical Mediterranean species and four species that are typical of higher latitudes. The mean annual pattern of phenological events and the CDD from 1 January are given for each development stage. Temperature thresholds were evaluated by comparing the standard deviation about the mean number of days in the development period for each species. A good relationship between timing of phenophase occurrence and temperature was observed for the Mediterranean species, which were little affected by variations in rainfall. Phenological development of the non-native species was affected by springtime rainfall. Accepted: 28 October 1998     

Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems

Plant phenology is strongly controlled by climate and has consequently become one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing climate change. We used a dataset of more than 200 000 records for six phenological events of 29 perennial plant species monitored from 1943 to 2003 for a comprehensive assessment of plant phenological responses to climate change in the Mediterranean region. Temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were studied together during a complete annual cycle before phenological events to determine their relative importance and potential seasonal carry‐over effects. Warm and dry springs under a positive phase of NAO advance flowering, leaf unfolding and fruiting dates and lengthen the growing season. Spatial variability of dates (range among sites) was also reduced during warm and dry years, especially for spring events. Climate during previous weeks to phenophases occurrence had the greatest impact on plants, although all events were also affected by climate conditions several months before. Immediate along with delayed climate effects suggest dual triggers in plant phenology. Climatic models accounted for more than 80% of variability in flowering and leaf unfolding dates, and in length of the growing season, but for lower proportions in fruiting and leaf falling. Most part of year‐to‐year changes in dates was accounted for temperature, while precipitation and NAO accounted for <10% of dates' variability. In the case of flowering, insect‐pollinated species were better modelled by climate than wind‐pollinated species. Differences in temporal responses of plant phenology to recent climate change are due to differences in the sensitivity to climate among events and species. Spring events are changing more than autumn events as they are more sensitive to climate and are also undergoing the greatest alterations of climate relative to other seasons. In conclusion, climate change has shifted plant phenology in the Mediterranean region.     

Physiological time model for predicting adult emergence of western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in the Texas High Plains

Field observations at three locations in the Texas High Plains were used to develop and validate a degree-day phenology model to predict the onset and proportional emergence of adult Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) adults. Climatic data from the Texas High Plains Potential Evapotranspiration network were used with records of cumulative proportional adult emergence to determine the functional lower developmental temperature, optimum starting date, and the sum of degree-days for phenological events from onset to 99% adult emergence. The model base temperature, 10 degrees C (50 degrees F), corresponds closely to known physiological lower limits for development. The model uses a modified Gompertz equation, y = 96.5 x exp (-(exp(6.0 - 0.00404 x (x - 4.0), where x is cumulative heat (degree-days), to predict y, cumulative proportional emergence expressed as a percentage. The model starts degree-day accumulation on the date of corn, Zea mays L., emergence, and predictions correspond closely to corn phenological stages from tasseling to black layer development. Validation shows the model predicts cumulative proportional adult emergence within a satisfactory interval of 4.5 d. The model is flexible enough to accommodate early planting, late emergence, and the effects of drought and heat stress. The model provides corn producers ample lead time to anticipate and implement adult control practices.     

中国东部温带植被生长季节的空间外推估计

利用地面植物物候和遥感归一化差值植被指数（NDVI）数据,以及一种物候-遥感外推方法,实现植被生长季节从少数站点到较多站点的空间外推。结果表明：（1）在1982～1993年期间,中国东部温带地区植被生长季节多年平均起讫日期的空间格局与春季和秋季平均气温的空间格局相关显著;（2）在不同纬度带和整个研究区域,植被生长季节结束日期呈显著推迟的趋势,而开始日期则呈不显著提前的趋势,这与欧洲和北美地区植被生长季节开始日期显著提前而结束日期不显著推迟的变化趋势完全不同;（3）北部纬度带的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4～3．6d,全区的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4d,与同期北半球和欧亚大陆植被生长季节延长的趋势数值相近;（4）植被生长季节结束日期的显著推迟与晚春至夏季的区域性降温有关,而植被生长季节开始日期的不显著提前则与晚冬至春季气温趋势的不稳定变化有关;（5）在年际变化方面,植被生长季节开始和结束日期分别与2～4月份平均气温和5～6月份平均气温呈负相关关系。     

Disentangling the paradox of insect phenology: are temporal trends reflecting the response to warming?

The strength and direction of phenological responses to changes in climate have been shown to vary significantly both among species and among populations of a species, with the overall patterns not fully resolved. Here, we studied the temporal and spatial variability associated with the response of several insect species to recent global warming. We use hierarchical models within a model comparison framework to analyze phenological data gathered over 40 years by the Japan Meteorological Agency on the emergence dates of 14 insect species at sites across Japan. Contrary to what has been predicted with global warming, temporal trends of annual emergence showed a later emergence day for some species and sites over time, even though temperatures are warming. However, when emergence data were analyzed as a function of temperature and precipitation, the overall response pointed out an earlier emergence day with warmer conditions. The apparent contradiction between the response to temperature and trends over time indicates that other factors, such as declining populations, may be affecting the date phenological events are being recorded. Overall, the responses by insects were weaker than those found for plants in previous work over the same time period in these ecosystems, suggesting the potential for ecological mismatches with deleterious effects for both suites of species. And although temperature may be the major driver of species phenology, we should be cautious when analyzing phenological datasets as many other factors may also be contributing to the variability in phenology.     

An analysis of relationships among plant community phenology and seasonal metrics of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the northern part of the monsoon region of China

This study focuses on relationships between the phenological growing season of plant communities and the seasonal metrics of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at sample stations and pixels overlying them, and explores the procedure for determining the growing season of terrestrial vegetation at the regional scale, using threshold NDVI values obtained by surface–satellite analysis at individual stations/pixels. The cumulative frequency of phenophases has been calculated for each plant community and each year in order to determine the growing season at the three sample stations from 1982 to 1993. The precise thresholds were arbitrarily set as the dates on which the phenological cumulative frequency reached 5% and 10% (for the beginning) and 90% and 95% (for the end). The beginning and end dates of the growing season were then applied each year as time thresholds, to determine the corresponding 10-day peak greenness values from NDVI curves for 8-km² pixels overlying the phenological stations. According to a trend analysis, a lengthening of the growing seasons and an increase of the integrated growing season NDVI have been detected in the central part of the research region. The correlation between the beginning dates of the growing season and the corresponding threshold NDVI values is very low, which indicates that the satellite-sensor-derived greenness is independent of the beginning time of the growing season of local plant communities. Other than in spring, the correlation between the end dates of the growing season and the corresponding threshold NDVI values is highly significant. The negative correlation shows that the earlier the growing season terminates, the larger the corresponding threshold NDVI value, and vice versa. In order to estimate the beginning and end dates of the growing season using the threshold NDVI values at sites without phenological data from 1982 to 1993, we calculated the spatial correlation coefficients between NDVI time-series at each sample station and other contiguous sites year by year. The results provide the spatial extrapolation area of the growing season for each sample station. Thus, we can use the threshold NDVI value obtained at one sample station/pixel for a year to determine the growing season at the extrapolation sites with a similar vegetation type for the same year. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 19 June 2001 / Accepted: 19 June 2001     

Improving the use of aerobiological and phenoclimatological data to forecast the risk of late blight in a potato crop

The paper describes phenological and aerobiological monitoring conducted during 6 years on a potato crop. The progression of the phenological stages in relation with thermal time [growing degree-days (GDD) and physiological days (P-days)] was analyzed. The growing cycle for Kennebec variety required less than 120 days and mean values of 1700 GDD and 720 P-days to complete the phenological development. The presence of Phytophthora infestans in the environment was common in each crop cycle, but the maximum peaks of sporangia were detected a few days after the emergence of the plants. The growing cycles with lower maximum temperature had the highest presence of sporangia. Thus, significant negative correlations between mean temperature, maximum temperature, accumulated growing degree-days, accumulated physiological days and the concentration of P. infestans in the environment were found. Maximum temperature and accumulated growing degree-days of 5 previous days were the parameters that best estimated the P. Infestans concentration in the regression model applied, with an explained variance of the data of 33 and 34%.     

An empirical predictive model for the flight period of Platypus koryoensis (Coleoptera: Platypodinae)

Between 2007 and 2009, field studies were conducted in four Quercus mongolica Fischer ex Ledebour forests in Korea to develop an empirical degree-day model for the flight period of the ambrosia beetle, Platypus koryoensis (Murayama). The lower developmental threshold temperature was estimated using an iterative method based on field trap catches and temperatures. The pooled proportion of the total number of beetles found in the traps at the end of the experiment was plotted against the accumulated degree-days at selected baseline temperatures, and these plots were fitted by the Weibull function. The baseline temperature with the highest coefficient of determination was considered the lower developmental threshold temperature, and this was estimated to be 5.8 °C. The explanatory power of the model was 89 %. Moreover, the model accurately predicted the time distributions of P. koryoensis flights in 2011 and 2012 at one of the sites. The estimated median flight dates in 2011 and 2012 were 4 days earlier and 5 days later than the corresponding observed flight dates, respectively. The estimated median date of flight advanced progressively during 1970–2010 by a total of 9 days due to an increase in annual mean temperature.     

Remote sensing of larch phenological cycle and analysis of relationships with climate in the Alpine region

This research aims at developing a remote sensing technique for monitoring the interannual variability of the European larch phenological cycle in the Alpine region of Aosta Valley (Northern Italy) and to evaluate its relationships with climatic factors. Phenological field observations were conducted in eight test sites from 2005 to 2007 to determine the dates of completion of different phenological phases. MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) 250 m 16‐days normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series were fitted with double logistic curves and the dates corresponding to different features of the curves were determined. Comparison with field data showed that the features of the fitted NDVI curve that allowed the best estimate of the start and end of the growing season were the zeroes of its third derivative (MAE of 6 and 4 days, respectively). The start and end of season were also estimated with the spring warming (SW) and growing season index (GSI) phenological models. MODIS start and end of season dates generally agreed with those obtained by the SW and GSI climate‐driven phenological models. However, phenological models provided erroneous results when applied in years with anomalous meteorological conditions. The relationships between interannual variability of the larch phenological cycle and climate were investigated by comparing the mean start and end of season yearly anomalies with air temperature anomalies. A strong linear relationship (R²=0.91) was found between mean spring temperatures and mean start of season dates, with an increase of 1 °C in mean spring temperature leading to a 7‐day anticipation of mean larch bud‐burst date. Leaf coloring dates were found to be best related with mean September temperature (R²=0.77), but with higher spring temperatures appearing to lead to earlier leaf coloring.     

Climate-Driven Phenological Change: Developing Robust Spatiotemporal Modeling and Projection Capability

Our possibility to appropriately detect, interpret and respond to climate-driven phenological changes depends on our ability to model and predict the changes. This ability may be hampered by non-linearity in climate-phenological relations, and by spatiotemporal variability and scale mismatches of climate and phenological data. A modeling methodology capable of handling such complexities can be a powerful tool for phenological change projection. Here we develop such a methodology using citizen scientists’ observations of first flight dates for orange tip butterflies (Anthocharis cardamines) in three areas extending along a steep climate gradient. The developed methodology links point data of first flight observations to calculated cumulative degree-days until first flight based on gridded temperature data. Using this methodology we identify and quantify a first flight model that is consistent across different regions, data support scales and assumptions of subgrid variability and observation bias. Model application to observed warming over the past 60 years demonstrates the model usefulness for assessment of climate-driven first flight change. The cross-regional consistency of the model implies predictive capability for future changes, and calls for further application and testing of analogous modeling approaches to other species, phenological variables and parts of the world.     

First flowering of wind‐pollinated species with the greatest phenological advances in Europe

Increasing risk of pollinosis (hay fever) is one of the most anticipated consequences of climate change on human health. Wind‐pollinated plants are representative of allergenic species because they include species with the highest capability of causing allergy‐related diseases in humans. Therefore, changes in wind‐pollinated species may reflect impacts of climate change on allergenic plants. In particular, flowering is one of the developmental stages most affected by climate change. This report specifically addresses changes in flowering dates that have occurred during the three decades 1971–2000 as a function of pollination mode and woodiness. The assessment is made using a phenological data set comprising trends of flowering dates of 29 species in 983 locations in Europe. Linear mixed models assessing the statistical significance of trends while adjusting for spatial correlation are used. The main results indicate for the first time that the onset of flowering of wind‐pollinated plants advanced more than for insect‐pollinated plants, while full flowering phases tended to advance less. These novel findings are contrary to the results of Fitter and Fitter (2002) for Oxfordshire, who reported larger advances of insect‐pollinated plants. Onset of flowering and full flowering of insect‐pollinated species are more likely to advance for seasons early in the year; instead, wind‐pollinated plants showed no dependence of trends on the season (first flowering) or a decreased advance of phases that are early in the year (full flowering). The effect of woodiness could not be unambiguously defined, but seems to be of minor importance. The presented findings suggest a lengthening of the flowering period in general, which might lead to an increasing time of exposure to airborne pollen of allergic subjects, with consequent likely increment in severity and incidence of allergic symptoms.     

The influence of altitude and urbanisation on trends and mean dates in phenology (1980–2009)

Long-term studies on urban phenology using network data are commonly limited by the small number of observation sites within city centres. Moreover, cities are often located on major rivers and consequently at lower altitudes than their rural surroundings. For these reasons, it is important (1) to go beyond a plain urban–rural comparison by taking the degree of urbanisation into account, and (2) to evaluate urbanisation and altitudinal effects simultaneously. Temporal phenological trends (1980–2009) for nine phenological spring events centred on the German cities of Frankfurt, Cologne and Munich were analysed. Trends of phenological onset dates were negative (i.e. earlier onset in phenology) for 96% of the 808 time series and significantly negative for 56% of the total number. Mean trends for the nine phenological events ranged between −0.23 days year⁻¹ for beech and −0.50 days year⁻¹ for hazel. The dependence of these trends and of mean dates on altitude and on the degree of urbanisation was explored. For mean dates, we demonstrated an earlier phenological onset at lower altitude and with a higher degree of urbanisation: altitude effects were highly significant and ranged between 1.34 days (100 m)⁻¹ (beech) and 4.27 days (100 m)⁻¹ (hazel). Coefficients for the log-transformed urban index were statistically significant for five events and varied greatly between events (coefficients from −1.74 for spruce to −5.08 for hazel). For trends in phenology, altitude was only significant for Norway maple, and no urban effects were significant. Hence, trends in phenology did not change significantly with higher altitudes or urbanised areas.     

Invasive Insects Differ from Non-Invasive in Their Thermal Requirements

We tested whether two basic thermal requirements for insect development, lower developmental thresholds, i.e. temperatures at which development ceases, and sums of effective temperatures, i.e. numbers of day degrees above the lower developmental thresholds necessary to complete development, differ among insect species that proved to be successful invaders in regions outside their native range and those that did not. Focusing on species traits underlying invasiveness that are related to temperature provides insights into the mechanisms of insect invasions. The screening of thermal requirements thus could improve risk-assessment schemes by incorporating these traits in predictions of potentially invasive insect species. We compared 100 pairs of taxonomically-related species originating from the same continent, one invasive and the other not reported as invasive. Invasive species have higher lower developmental thresholds than those never recorded outside their native ranges. Invasive species also have a lower sum of effective temperatures, though not significantly. However, the differences between invasive and non-invasive species in the two physiological measures were significantly inversely correlated. This result suggests that many species are currently prevented from invading by low temperatures in some parts of the world. Those species that will overcome current climatic constraints in regions outside their native distribution due to climate change could become even more serious future invaders than present-day species, due to their potentially faster development.     

Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020–2040 and 2040–2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T _low ) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T _low ?=?10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8–6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.     

Altered geographic and temporal variability in phenology in response to climate change

Aim In response to recent climate warming, numerous studies have reported an earlier onset of spring and, to a lesser degree, a later onset of autumn, both determined from phenological observations. Here, we examine whether these reported changes have affected the synchronization of events on a regional level by examining temporal and spatial variability in phenology. In particular, we study whether years with earlier springs are associated with an altered spatial variability in phenology. Location Germany and the United Kingdom. Methods Plant phenological observations of 35 different phases (events such as flowering and leafing) collected by the German Weather Service (1951–2002) and butterfly phenological records of 29 species collected by the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (1976–2003) are used. In these long‐term records, we examine the temporal (year‐to‐year) variability and the spatial (geographic or between site) variability with particular emphasis on how they vary with time of the year and with earliness or lateness of the phase. Results Early phenological events (i.e. spring) are more variable than later events, both in time and in space, although the pattern is clearer for plants than for butterflies. Confirming previous results, we find a clear relationship between the mean date of spring and summer phases and the degree to which they have become earlier. The spatial variability of spring events is greater in warmer years that have faster plant development. However, late spring and summer events do not show a consistent relationship. Autumn events are somewhat more spatially variable in years characterized by later seasons. Main conclusions This is the first examination of spatial variability of plant and animal phenological events at a multinational scale. Earlier spring events are likely to be associated with increased spatial variability in plants, although this is unlikely to also be true for summer events. If species experience differential changes in geographic variation this may disrupt interactions among them, e.g. in food webs. On the other hand, these may offer advantages for mobile species. Further research on linked species is recommended.     

Multispecies comparisons of adaptability to climate change: A role for life‐history characteristics?

Phenological advancement allows individuals to adapt to climate change by timing life‐history events to the availability of key resources so that individual fitness is maximized. However, different trophic levels may respond to changes in their environment at different rates, potentially leading to a phenological mismatch. This may be especially apparent in the highly seasonal arctic environment that is experiencing the effects of climate change more so than any other region. During a 14‐year study near Utqia?vik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological advancement in egg laying in relation to snowmelt for eight arctic‐breeding shorebirds and investigated potential linkages to species‐specific life‐history characteristics. We found that snowmelt advanced 0.8 days/year—six times faster than the prior 60‐year period. During this same time, six of the eight species exhibited phenological advancement in laying dates (varying among species from 0.1 to 0.9 days earlier per year), although no species appeared capable of keeping pace with advancing snowmelt. Phenological changes were likely the result of high phenotypic plasticity, as all species investigated in this study showed high interannual variability in lay dates. Commonality among species with similar response rates to timing of snowmelt suggests that nesting later and having an opportunistic settlement strategy may increase the adaptability of some species to changing climate conditions. Other life‐history characteristics, such as migration strategy, previous site experience, and mate fidelity did not influence the ability of individuals to advance laying dates. As a failure to advance egg laying is likely to result in greater phenological mismatch, our study provides an initial assessment of the relative risk of species to long‐term climatic changes.     

Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China

Using phenological and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 1993 at seven sample stations in temperate eastern China, we calculated the cumulative frequency of leaf unfolding and leaf coloration dates for deciduous species every 5 days throughout the study period. Then, we determined the growing season beginning and end dates by computing times when 50% of the species had undergone leaf unfolding and leaf coloration for each station year. Next, we used these beginning and end dates of the growing season as time markers to determine corresponding threshold NDVI values on NDVI curves for the pixels overlaying phenological stations. Based on a cluster analysis, we determined extrapolation areas for each phenological station in every year, and then implemented the spatial extrapolation of growing season parameters from the seven sample stations to all possible meteorological stations in the study area. Results show that spatial patterns of growing season beginning and end dates correlate significantly with spatial patterns of mean air temperatures in spring and autumn, respectively. Contrasting with results from similar studies in Europe and North America, our study suggests that there is a significant delay in leaf coloration dates, along with a less pronounced advance of leaf unfolding dates in different latitudinal zones and the whole area from 1982 to 1993. The growing season has been extended by 1.4–3.6 days per year in the northern zones and by 1.4 days per year across the entire study area on average. The apparent delay in growing season end dates is associated with regional cooling from late spring to summer, while the insignificant advancement in beginning dates corresponds to inconsistent temperature trend changes from late winter to spring. On an interannual basis, growing season beginning and end dates correlate negatively with mean air temperatures from February to April and from May to June, respectively.     

Allopatric populations of the invasive larch casebearer differ in cold tolerance and phenology

1. Traits of non-native insect herbivores may vary spatially due to local genetic differences, rapid post-introduction evolution, and/or novel host plant associations. 2. Populations of larch casebearer, Coleophora laricella Hübner, originally from Europe have likely been isolated for > 60 years in North America on eastern larch, Larix laricina (Du Roi) K. Koch, and western larch, Larix occidentalis Nutt. 3. This study investigated cold tolerance and phenology of larvae collected from eastern larch in Minnesota, and western larch in Oregon, Idaho, and Montana, U.S.A. 4. Mean supercooling points of larvae from Minnesota were up to 10 °C lower than supercooling points of larvae from Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. 5. At ambient environmental conditions in spring, overwintering larvae from Minnesota required a mean (± SE) of 172 ± 19 degree-days above 5 °C to break winter quiescence and actively wander, significantly more than required by larvae from Oregon (66 ± 4), Idaho (64 ± 1), and Montana (60 ± 2). 6. Across all assays and despite substantial latitudinal and elevational variation among western larch sites, no significant differences in any traits were detected among larvae collected from western larch. 7. Spatial variation in cold tolerance and phenological traits of larch casebearer may be attributable to insect genetic differences and/or host plant effects, but exact mechanisms remain unknown. Differences in thermal biology between regions may result in disparate effects of climate change on insect populations and should be accounted for when forecasting insect dynamics across large spatial scales.     

Developmental times and life table statistics of Aulacorthum solani (Hemiptera: Aphididae) at six constant temperatures, with recommendations on the application of temperature-dependent development models

Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach) (known as foxglove aphid or glasshouse potato aphid) is a pest of increasing economic importance in several agricultural crops worldwide, including greenhouse vegetables and ornamentals. Developmental rates and age-specific life tables for a North American population of A. solani on pansy (Viola × wittrockiana) (Gams.) were determined at six constant temperatures, and comparisons were made to previous studies of A. solani from differing geographic regions and host crops. On pansy, A. solani developed fastest at 25°C, passing through the four nymphal instars in an average of 6.9 d. The highest intrinsic rates of population increase (0.410 and 0.445) and shortest population doubling times (1.69 and 1.56 d) were recorded at 20 and 25°C, respectively. Average total fecundity remained high from 10 to 20°C (74-68 nymphs/adult); a significant decrease to 39 nymphs/adult occurred at 25°C. For calculating developmental thresholds, we present here a method of adjusting the lower developmental threshold (t(min)) using estimates from nonlinear models to provide an improved estimate of the thermal constant (K, in degree-days). We also call attention to the necessity of using a simulation method to estimate the true upper developmental threshold (t(max)) and optimum developmental temperature (t(opt)) from the Lactin-2 model of temperature-dependent development.     

基于网络的昆虫发育进程自动模拟系统

为了有效的预测害虫的发生期,开发了昆虫发育自动模拟系统,该系统基于网络平台,应用PHP丰富的函数库和计算功能设计有效积温运算模块,通过公共气象信息系统建立了气象数据库,并根据实时及预报的公共气象信息,即逐日最高及最低气温,昆虫发育有效积温相关的生物学参数,运用正弦法计算每天的有效积温及一段时间的累计积温,自动模拟昆虫在不同时期的发育虫态和虫龄。服务器端基于Apache+PHP+MySQL架构,操作简单,调试和维护方便。经与2011年江苏通州烟粉虱Bemisia tabaci(Gennadius)、灰飞虱Laodelphax striatellus(Fallén)系统调查数据比对,符合实际发生情况,可在生产上推广应用。