共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
2.
新世纪流感大流行的思考 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
2009年从墨西哥开始暴发了一场席卷全世界的流感疫情.此次大流行的毒株,甲型H1N1病毒,包含了猪源、禽源和人源流感病毒的基因片段.研究该毒株的基因重配、进化历程及其生物学特性,将对防控此次流行具有重要意义.目前,该毒株的遗传进化关系已明确,通过遗传性状分析可获知该毒株可能的生物学性状,但流感大流行动向、毒株遗传变化、毒力及致病性变化仍在密切监控中.流感病毒生态系统具有复杂性,其基因组易突变、易重配、易在自然宿主保存,使得流感大流行存在一定的必然性.正视流感大流行的威胁,积极提高流感病毒在生态系统中的监控,加强流行病学调查,发展疫苗与药物,建立有效公共卫生保障体系,才能降低流感大流行的破坏性. 相似文献
3.
Chowell G Echevarría-Zuno S Viboud C Simonsen L Tamerius J Miller MA Borja-Aburto VH 《PLoS medicine》2011,8(5):e1000436
Background
Mexico''s local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April–December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission.Methods and Findings
We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April–December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April–May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June–July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August–December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼18 years overall and increased to ∼31 years during autumn (p<0.0001). The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5%) among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8–2.1, 1.6–1.9, and 1.2–1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%–37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. State-specific fall pandemic waves began 2–5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases.Conclusions
We documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school cycles on the transmission dynamics of this pandemic influenza strain and suggests that school closure and other mitigation measures could be useful to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary 相似文献4.
《微生物学免疫学进展》2015,(5)
目的评价甲型H1N1流感病毒裂解疫苗(简称甲型H1N1流感疫苗)的免疫原性和安全性。方法按照随机、双盲、安慰剂对照的原则,采用0、21天免疫程序,选择3岁及3岁以上健康者1 202人。分组为3~11岁、12~17岁、≥60岁组,按照人数基本为1∶1的比例随机分别接种7.5μg和15.0μg甲型H1N1流感疫苗;18~59岁组按照人数基本为1∶1∶1的比例随机分别接种7.5μg、15.0μg甲型H1N1流感疫苗和安慰剂对照。观察各组接种后的不良反应率以及免疫前后血凝抑制(HI)抗体阳转率、保护率、GMT水平和平均增长倍数。结果受试对象的安全性结果显示7.5μg和15.0μg组不良反应发生率分别为8.74%(48/549)和13.88%(74/533),其中Ⅱ级反应率分别为0.36%(2/549)和1.13%(6/533),未观察到Ⅲ级及以上不良反应和其他异常反应及严重不良事件。2剂接种未见不良反应叠加现象。7.5μg或15.0μg试验疫苗首剂免疫后,血清抗体阳性率分别为85.13%(395/464)和90.77%(413/455),保护率分别为85.56%(397/464)和91.43%(416/455),抗体GMT较免疫前分别增长36.1倍和52.6倍。2剂免疫后,血清抗体阳性率分别是97.84%(454/464)和99.12%(451/455),保护率分别是98.06%(455/464)和9 9.56%(453/455),抗体GMT较免疫前分别增长63.3倍和96.0倍。4个年龄组(3~11岁、12~17岁、18~59岁及≥60岁年龄组)7.5μg和15.0μg组HI抗体阳性率和保护率均大于70%,GMT较免疫前均增长2.5倍以上,结果显示7.5μg和15.0μg甲型H1N1流感疫苗接种1剂后抗体水平已达到研究方案中设定的预期标准,免疫2剂后抗体阳性率和抗体水平明显提高。结论临床试验表明甲型H1N1流感疫苗具有良好的安全性和免疫原性,且接种1剂15.0μg甲型H1N1流感疫苗,即可在3岁和3岁以上人群中产生良好的免疫效果。 相似文献
5.
Zhou Y Ng DM Seto WH Ip DK Kwok HK Ma ES Ng S Lau LL Peiris JS Cowling BJ 《PloS one》2011,6(11):e27169
Background
Healthcare workers in many countries are recommended to receive influenza vaccine to protect themselves as well as patients. A monovalent H1N1 vaccine became available in Hong Kong in December 2009 and around 10% of local healthcare workers had received the vaccine by February 2010.Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional study of the prevalence of antibody to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among HCWs in Hong Kong in February–March 2010 following the first pandemic wave and the pH1N1 vaccination campaign. In this study we focus on the subset of healthcare workers who reported receipt of non-adjuvanted monovalent 2009 H1N1 vaccine (Panenza, Sanofi Pasteur). Sera collected from HCWs were tested for antibody against the pH1N1 virus by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and viral neutralization (VN) assays.Results
We enrolled 703 HCWs. Among 104 HCWs who reported receipt of pH1N1 vaccine, 54% (95% confidence interval (CI): 44%–63%) had antibody titer ≥1∶40 by HI and 42% (95% CI: 33%–52%) had antibody titer ≥1∶40 by VN. The proportion of HCWs with antibody titer ≥1∶40 by HI and VN significantly decreased with age, and the proportion with antibody titer ≥1∶40 by VN was marginally significantly lower among HCWs who reported prior receipt of 2007–08 seasonal influenza vaccine (odds ratio: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.19–1.00). After adjustment for age, the effect of prior seasonal vaccine receipt was not statistically significant.Conclusions
Our findings suggest that monovalent H1N1 vaccine may have had suboptimal immunogenicity in HCWs in Hong Kong. Larger studies are required to confirm whether influenza vaccine maintains high efficacy and effectiveness in HCWs. 相似文献6.
Byoung-Shik Shim Jung-ah Choi Ho-Hyun Song Sung-Moo Park In Su Cheon Ji-Eun Jang Sun Je Woo Chung Hwan Cho Min-Suk Song Hyemi Kim Kyung Joo Song Jae Myun Lee Suhng Wook Kim Dae Sub Song Young Ki Choi Jae-Ouk Kim Huan Huu Nguyen Dong Wook Kim Young Yil Bahk Cheol-Heui Yun Man Ki Song 《Journal of microbiology (Seoul, Korea)》2013,51(1):130-135
Influenza viruses are respiratory pathogens that continue to pose a significantly high risk of morbidity and mortality of humans worldwide. Vaccination is one of the most effective strategies for minimizing damages by influenza outbreaks. In addition, rapid development and production of efficient vaccine with convenient administration is required in case of influenza pandemic. In this study, we generated recombinant influenza virus hemagglutinin protein 1 (sHA1) of 2009 pandemic influenza virus as a vaccine candidate using a well-established bacterial expression system and administered it into mice via sublingual (s.l.) route. We found that s.l. immunization with the recombinant sHA1 plus cholera toxin (CT) induced mucosal antibodies as well as systemic antibodies including neutralizing Abs and provided complete protection against infection with pandemic influenza virus A/CA/04/09 (H1N1) in mice. Indeed, the protection efficacy was comparable with that induced by intramuscular (i.m.) immunization route utilized as general administration route of influenza vaccine. These results suggest that s.l. vaccination with the recombinant non-glycosylated HA1 protein offers an alternative strategy to control influenza outbreaks including pandemics. 相似文献
7.
The rapid transmission of the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza virus (pH1N1) among humans has raised the concern of a potential emergence of reassortment between pH1N1 and highly pathogenic influenza strains, especially the avian H5N1 influenza virus. Here, we report that the cold-adapted pH1N1 live attenuated vaccine (CApH1N1) elicits cross-reactive immunity to seasonal and H5 influenza A viruses in the mouse model. Immunization with CApH1N1 induced both systemic and mucosal antibodies with broad reactivity to seasonal and H5 strains, including HAPI H5N1 and the avian H5N2 virus, providing complete protection against heterologous and heterosubtypic lethal challenges. Our results not only accentuate the merit of using live attenuated influenza virus vaccines in view of cross-reactivity but also represent the potential of CApH1N1 live vaccine for mitigating the clinical severity of infections that arise from reassortments between pH1N1 and highly pathogenic H5 subtype viruses. 相似文献
8.
9.
Uphoff H An der Heiden M Schweiger B Campe H Beier D Helmeke C Littmann M Haas W Buda S Faensen D Feig M Altmann D Wichmann O Eckmanns T Buchholz U 《PloS one》2011,6(7):e19932
During the autumn wave of the pandemic influenza virus A/(H1N1) 2009 (pIV) the German population was offered an AS03-adjuvanted vaccine. The authors compared results of two methods calculating the effectiveness of the vaccine (VE). The test-negative case-control method used data from virologic surveillance including influenza-positive and negative patients. An innovative case-series methodology explored data from all nationally reported laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. The proportion of reported cases occurring in vaccinees during an assumed unprotected phase after vaccination was compared with that occurring in vaccinees during their assumed protected phase. The test-negative case-control method included 1,749 pIV cases and 2,087 influenza test-negative individuals of whom 6 (0.3%) and 36 (1.7%), respectively, were vaccinated. The case series method included data from 73,280 cases. VE in the two methods was 79% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 35–93%; P = 0.007) and 87% (95% CI = 78–92%; P<0.001) for individuals less than 14 years of age and 70% (95% CI = −45%–94%, P = 0.13) and 74% (95% CI = 64–82%; P<0.001) for individuals above the age of 14. Both methods yielded similar VE in both age groups; and VE for the younger age group seemed to be higher. 相似文献
10.
Liu G Tarbet B Song L Reiserova L Weaver B Chen Y Li H Hou F Liu X Parent J Umlauf S Shaw A Tussey L 《PloS one》2011,6(6):e20928
We have previously demonstrated that the globular head of the hemagglutinin (HA) antigen fused to flagellin of Salmonella typhimurium fljB (STF2, a TLR5 ligand) elicits protective immunity to H1N1 and H5N1 lethal influenza infections in mice (Song et al., 2008, PLoS ONE 3, e2257; Song et al., 2009, Vaccine 27, 5875–5888). These fusion proteins can be efficiently and economically manufactured in E. coli fermentation systems as next generation pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines. Here we report immunogenicity and efficacy results of three vaccine candidates in which the HA globular head of A/California/07/2009 (H1N1) was fused to STF2 at the C-terminus (STF2.HA1), in replace of domain 3 (STF2R3.HA1), or in both positions (STF2R3.2xHA1). For all three vaccines, two subcutaneous immunizations of BALB/c mice with doses of either 0.3 or 3 µg elicit robust neutralizing (HAI) antibodies, that lead to > = 2 Log10 unit reduction in day 4 lung virus titer and full protection against a lethal A/California/04/2009 challenge. Vaccination with doses as low as 0.03 µg results in partial to full protection. Each candidate, particularly the STF2R3.HA1 and STF2R3.2xHA1 candidates, elicits robust neutralizing antibody responses that last for at least 8 months. The STF2R3.HA1 candidate, which was intermediately protective in the challenge models, is more immunogenic than the H1N1 components of two commercially available trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (TIVs) in mice. Taken together, the results demonstrate that all three vaccine candidates are highly immunogenic and efficacious in mice, and that the STF2R3.2xHA1 format is the most effective candidate vaccine format. 相似文献
11.
Ethan Rubinstein Gerald Predy Laura Sauv�� Greg W. Hammond Fred Aoki Chris Sikora Yan Li Barbara Law Scott Halperin David Scheifele 《CMAJ》2011,183(13):E1033-E1037
Background:
Because many Aboriginal Canadians had severe cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza, they were given priority access to vaccine. However, it was not known if the single recommended dose would adequately protect people at high risk, prompting our study to assess responses to the vaccine among Aboriginal Canadians.Methods:
We enrolled First Nations and Métis adults aged 20–59 years in our prospective cohort study. Participants were given one 0.5-mL dose of ASO3-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine (Arepanrix, GlaxoSmithKline Canada). Blood samples were taken at baseline and 21–28 days after vaccination. Paired sera were tested for hemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies at a reference laboratory. To assess vaccine safety, we monitored the injection site symptoms of each participant for seven days. We also monitored patients for general symptoms within 7 days of vaccination and any use of the health care system for 21–28 days after vaccination.Results:
We enrolled 138 participants in the study (95 First Nations, 43 Métis), 137 of whom provided all safety data and 136 of whom provided both blood samples. First Nations and Métis participants had similar characteristics, including high rates of chronic health conditions (74.4%–76.8%). Pre-existing antibody to the virus was detected in 34.3% of the participants, all of whom boosted strongly with vaccination (seroprotection rate [titre ≥ 40] 100%, geometric mean titre 531–667). Particpants with no pre-existing antibody also responded well. Fifty-eight of 59 (98.3%) First Nations participants showed seroprotection and a geometric mean titre of 353.6; all 30 Métis participants with no pre-existing antibody showed seroprotection and a geometric mean titre of 376.2. Pain at the injection site and general symptoms frequently occurred but were short-lived and generally not severe, although three participants (2.2%) sought medical attention for general symptoms.Interpretation:
First Nations and Métis adults responded robustly to ASO3-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine. Virtually all participants showed protective titres, including those with chronic health conditions.Trial registration:
ClinicalTrials.gov trial register no. NCT.01001026.During the first wave of the H1N1 pandemic in Canada in 2009, some First Nations communities were severely affected, with younger adults and children most at risk for severe disease.1,2 Whereas Aboriginal Canadians make up 3.4% of the population (with 1.14 million people), they accounted for 16% of admissions to hospital during the first wave of the pandemic, and 43% of Aboriginal patients had underlying medical conditions.3 The increased rate of severe disease might have resulted from residential crowding, prevalence of chronic health conditions, delayed access to health care or suboptimal immune responses to infection.4 When a federally funded, ASO3-adjuvanted (squalene/tocopherol) pandemic vaccine became available for Canadians later in 2009,5 Aboriginal people were given priority access to it.3 However, dosing requirements at the time were tentative. Previous studies of an ASO3-adjuvanted influenza A (H5N1) vaccine established that two doses were needed for immunity in adults.6 Because the 2009 influenza (H1N1) pandemic occurred without warning, no prepandemic studies had been done with vaccines based on this novel swine-derived virus.7The ASO3-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine manufactured in Canada (Arepanrix, GlaxoSmithKline, Laval, Quebec) was released for public use as soon as it was available, unstudied, to mitigate morbidity during the pandemic’s second wave, which was already in progress. A single 3.75-μg dose of hemagglutinin was recommended for adults using the preliminary results of a European trial of another ASO3-adjuvanted vaccine (Pandemrix, GlaxoSmithKline, Rixensart, Belgium) given to 65 adults aged 18–60 years.8 The European product was believed to be equivalent to the Canadian-made vaccine, but this had not yet been shown.We wondered if the recommended single dose would be adequate for Aboriginal Canadian adults given their heightened risk of severe influenza during the first wave. We were unable to identify any previous studies of influenza vaccines involving Aboriginal Canadians to determine if their responses would be similar to other Canadians or to the healthy European study participants on whom the dosing recommendation was based. Consequently, we undertook a study involving First Nations and Métis adults to assess their responses to the pandemic vaccine. 相似文献12.
To gain insight into the possible origin of the hemagglutinin of 2009 outbreak, we performed its comparative analysis with hemagglutinin of influenza viral strains from 2005 to 2008 and the past pandemics of 1977, 1968, 1957 and 1918. This insilico analysis showed a maximum sequence similarity between 2009 and 1918 pandemics. Primary structure analysis, antigenic and glycosylation site analyses revealed that this protein has evolved from 1918 pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis of HA amino acid sequence of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) viruses indicated that this virus possesses a distinctive evolutionary trait with 1918 influenza A virus. Although the disordered sequences are different among all the isolates, the disordered positions and sequences between 2009 and 1918 isolates show a greater similarity. Thus these analyses contribute to the evidence of the evolution of 2009 pandemic from 1918 influenza pandemic. This is the first computational evolutionary analysis of HA protein of 2009 H1N1 pandemic. 相似文献
13.
The Influenza A H1N1 2009 pandemic was a test of the global public health response. Strategies that worked included mass vaccine production and antivirals while quarantine and isolation proved futile. Among the lessons learned was the importance of severity in the definition of a pandemic. 相似文献
14.
Chen CJ Lee PI Chang SC Huang YC Chiu CH Hsieh YC Chang SC Chang FY Lee JJ Su SC Shen GH Chuang YC Chen YS Liu JW Lin TY 《PloS one》2011,6(9):e24440
Background
This study is to determine the seroprevalence of the pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus (pH1N1) in Taiwan before and after the 2009 pandemic, and to estimate the relative severity of pH1N1 infections among different age groups.Methodology/Principal Findings
A total of 1544 and 1558 random serum samples were collected from the general population in Taiwan in 2007 and 2010, respectively. Seropositivity was defined by a hemagglutination inhibition titer to pH1N1 (A/Taiwan/126/09) ≥1:40. The seropositivity rate of pH1N1 among the unvaccinated subjects and national surveillance data were used to compare the proportion of infections that led to severe diseases and fatalities among different age groups. The overall seroprevalence of pH1N1 was 0.91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–1.38) in 2007 and significantly increased to 29.9% (95% CI 27.6–32.2) in 2010 (p<0.0001), with the peak attack rate (55.4%) in 10–17 year-old adolescents, the lowest in elderly ≥65 years (14.1%). The overall attack rates were 20.6% (188/912) in unvaccinated subjects. Among the unvaccinated but infected populations, the estimated attack rates of severe cases per 100,000 infections were significantly higher in children aged 0–5 years (54.9 cases, odds ratio [OR] 4.23, 95% CI 3.04–5.90) and elderly ≥ 65years (22.4 cases, OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.99–3.83) compared to adolescents aged 10–17 years (13.0 cases). The overall case-fatality rate was 0.98 per 100,000 infections without a significant difference in different age groups.Conclusions/Significance
Pre-existing immunity against pH1N1 was rarely identified in Taiwanese at any age in 2007. Young children and elderly – the two most lower seroprotection groups showed the greatest vulnerability to clinical severity after the pH1N1 infections. These results imply that both age groups should have higher priority for immunization in the coming flu season. 相似文献15.
Hyekwon Kim Jeong-Ki Kim Hohyun Song Jungah Choi Byoungshik Shim Bokyu Kang Hyoungjoon Moon Minjoo Yeom Sang-Hyun Kim Daesub Song Manki Song 《Journal of microbiology (Seoul, Korea)》2014,52(9):794-800
Sublingual (SL) administration of influenza vaccine would be non-invasive and effective way to give human populations protective immunity against the virus, especially when pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this study, the efficacy of pandemic influenza virus-based subunit vaccines was tested after sublingual (SL) adjuvant administration in pigs. Eight specific pathogen-free Yucatan pigs were divided into 4 groups: nonvaccinated but challenged (A) and vaccinated and challenged (B, C, and D). The vaccinated groups were subdivided by vaccine type and inoculation route: SL subunit vaccine (hemagglutinin antigen 1 [HA1] + wild-type cholera toxin [wtCT], B); IM subunit vaccine (HA1 + aluminum hydroxide, C); and IM inactivated vaccine (+ aluminum hydroxide, D). The vaccines were administered twice at a 2-week interval. All pigs were challenged with pandemic influenza virus (A/swine/GCVP-KS01/2009 [H1N1]) and monitored for clinical signs, serology, viral shedding, and histopathology. After vaccination, hemagglutination inhibition titre was higher in group D (320) than in the other vaccinated groups (40–80) at the time of challenge. The mobility and feed intake were reduced in group C. Both viral shedding and histopathological lesions were reduced in groups B and D. Although this study has limitation due to the limited number of pigs (2 pigs per a group), the preliminary data in this study provided the protective potential of SL administration of bacteria-expressed pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine in pigs. There should be additional animal studies about effective adjuvant system and vaccine types for the use of SL influenza vaccination. 相似文献
16.
Background
The immunogenicity of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) (pH1N1) vaccines and the effect of previous influenza vaccination is a matter of current interest and debate. We measured the immune response to pH1N1 vaccine in HIV-infected patients and in healthy controls. In addition we tested whether recent vaccination with seasonal trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) induced cross-reactive antibodies to pH1N1. (clinicaltrials.gov Identifier:) NCT01066169Methods and Findings
In this single-center prospective cohort study MF59-adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccine (Focetria®, Novartis) was administered twice to 58 adult HIV-infected patients and 44 healthy controls in November 2009 (day 0 and day 21). Antibody responses were measured at baseline, day 21 and day 56 with hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay. The seroprotection rate (defined as HI titers ≥1∶40) for HIV-infected patients was 88% after the first and 91% after the second vaccination. These rates were comparable to those in healthy controls. Post-vaccination GMT, a sensitive marker of the immune competence of a group, was lower in HIV-infected patients. We found a high seroprotection rate at baseline (31%). Seroprotective titers at baseline were much more common in those who had received 2009–2010 seasonal TIV three weeks prior to the first dose of pH1N1 vaccine. Using stored serum samples of 51 HIV-infected participants we measured the pH1N1 specific response to 2009–2010 seasonal TIV. The seroprotection rate to pH1N1 increased from 22% to 49% after vaccination with 2009–2010 seasonal TIV. Seasonal TIV induced higher levels of antibodies to pH1N1 in older than in younger subjects.Conclusion
In HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy, with a median CD4+ T-lymphocyte count above 500 cells/mm3, one dose of MF59-adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccine induced a high seroprotection rate comparable to that in healthy controls. A second dose had a modest additional effect. Furthermore, seasonal TIV induced cross-reactive antibodies to pH1N1 and this effect was more pronounced in older subjects. 相似文献17.
Background
The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September–mid-October 2009) characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly incidence, a sudden and sharp increase of the growth rate was observed by mid-October. The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread.Methodology/Principal Findings
In order to face this issue, a mathematical model of influenza transmission, accounting for spontaneous behavioral changes driven by cost/benefit considerations on the perceived risk of infection, is proposed and validated against empirical epidemiological data. The performed investigation revealed that an initial overestimation of the risk of infection in the general population, possibly induced by the high concern for the emergence of a new influenza pandemic, results in a pattern of spread compliant with the observed one. This finding is also supported by the analysis of antiviral drugs purchase over the epidemic period. Moreover, by assuming a generation time of 2.5 days, the initially diffuse misperception of the risk of infection led to a relatively low value of the reproductive number , which increased to in the subsequent phase of the pandemic.Conclusions/Significance
This study highlights that spontaneous behavioral changes in the population, not accounted by the large majority of influenza transmission models, can not be neglected to correctly inform public health decisions. In fact, individual choices can drastically affect the epidemic spread, by altering timing, dynamics and overall number of cases. 相似文献18.
The principle of the present study was to determine the evolution of pandemic novel influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus (NIV) by phylogenetic, comparative and statistical analyses. The phylogenetic trees of eight genomic segments illustrate that, so far, the sequences of the NIVs (outbreak group A) are relatively homogeneous and derived by the event of multiple genetic reassortment of Eurasian and North American swine, avian and human viruses (group B). It implies that some of the influenza viruses in group B had higher potential to evolve and getting the ability to transmit from human-to-human after animal-to-human cross-species transmission. The second analysis shows that NIV had attempted a little evolutionary change among humans and before introduction into human it had long evolutionary history. Statistical analysis shows that viruses from both outbreak and nearest group have homologous genes in their genomes which might be reflecting the phylogenetic relationship of strains, and also the presence of unique mutations between groups A-B may associate with increased virulence of NIVs. Both phylogenetic and cluster analyses confirm that the gene exchange takes place between viruses originated from different species and it could be generated NIV with unpredictable pandemic potential. Hence, we conclude that an extensive study should be made to recognize, which reassortment groups are closely related to NIVs, and to determine the sites in the genes of NIV under greatest or least selection pressure, which will ultimately be important in the effective design of vaccine and drugs for ‘swine flu’. 相似文献
19.
Genetic mutation and reassortment of influenza virus gene segments, in particular those of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), that lead to antigenic drift and shift are the major strategies for influenza virus to escape preexisting immunity. The most recent example of such phenomena is the first pandemic of H1N1 influenza of the 21st century, which started in 2009. Cross-reactive antibodies raised against H1N1 viruses circulating before 1930 show protective activity against the 2009 pandemic virus. Cross-reactive T-cell responses can also contribute to protection, but in vivo support of this view is lacking. To explore the protection mechanisms in vivo, we primed mice with H1 and H3 influenza virus isolates and rechallenged them with a virus derived from the 2009 H1N1 A/CA/04/09 virus, named CA/E3/09. We found that priming with influenza viruses of both H1 and H3 homo- and heterosubtypes protected against lethal CA/E3/09 virus challenge. Convalescent-phase sera from these primed mice conferred no neutralization activity in vitro and no protection in vivo. However, T-cell depletion studies suggested that both CD4 and CD8 T cells contributed to the protection. Taken together, these results indicate that cross-reactive T cells established after initial priming with distally related viruses can be a vital component for prevention of disease and control of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus infection. Our results highlight the importance of establishing cross-reactive T-cell responses for protecting against existing or newly emerging pandemic influenza viruses. 相似文献
20.