Effects of Neuraxial Blockade May Be Difficult To Study Using Large Randomized Controlled Trials: The PeriOperative Epidural Trial (POET) Pilot Study

Background

Early randomized controlled trials have suggested that neuraxial blockade may reduce cardiorespiratory complications after non-cardiothoracic surgery, but recent larger trials have been inconclusive. We conducted a pilot study to assess the feasibility of conducting a large multicentre randomized controlled trial in Canada.

Methodology/Principal Findings

After Research Ethics Board approvals from the participating institutions, subjects were recruited if they were ≥45 years old, had an expected hospital stay ≥48 hours, were undergoing a noncardiothoracic procedure amenable to epidural analgesia, met one of six risk criteria, and did not have contraindications to neuraxial blockade. After informed consent, subjects were randomly allocated to combined epidural analgesia (epidural group) and neuraxial anesthesia, with or without general anesthesia, or intravenous opioid analgesia (IV group) and general anesthesia. The primary outcomes were the rate of recruitment and the percents of eligible patients recruited, crossed over, and followed completely. Feasibility targets were defined a priori. A blinded, independent committee adjudicated the secondary clinical outcomes. Subjects were followed daily while in hospital and then at 30 days after surgery. Analysis was intention-to-treat. Over a 15-month period, the recruitment rate was 0.5±0.3 (mean±SEM) subjects per week per centre; 112/494 (22.7%) eligible subjects were recruited at four tertiary-care teaching hospitals in Canada. Thirteen (26.5%) of 49 subjects in the epidural group crossed over to the IV group; seven (14.3%) were due to failed or inadequate analgesia or complications from epidural analgesia. Five (9.8%) of 51 subjects in the IV group crossed over to the epidural group but none were due to inadequate analgesia or complications. Ninety-eight (97.0%) of 101 subjects were successfully followed up until 30 days after their surgery.

Conclusion/Significance

Of the criteria we defined for the feasibility of a full-scale trial, only the follow-up target was met. The other feasibility outcomes did not meet our preset criteria for success. The results suggest that a large multicentre trial may not be a feasible design to study the perioperative effects of neuraxial blockade.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT 0221260 Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN 35629817     

β Blockade after myocardial infarction: systematic review and meta regression analysis

ObjectivesTo assess the effectiveness of β blockers in short term treatment for acute myocardial infarction and in longer term secondary prevention; to examine predictive factors that may influence outcome and therefore choice of drug; and to examine the clinical importance of the results in the light of current treatment.DesignSystematic review of randomised controlled trials.SettingRandomised controlled trials.SubjectsPatients with acute or past myocardial infarction.Interventionβ Blockers compared with control.Mainoutcome measures All cause mortality and non-fatal reinfarction.ResultsOverall, 5477 of 54 234 patients (10.1%) randomised to β blockers or control died. We identified a 23% reduction in the odds of death in long term trials (95% confidence interval 15% to 31%), but only a 4% reduction in the odds of death in short term trials (−8% to 15%). Meta regression in long term trials did not identify a significant reduction in effectiveness in drugs with cardioselectivity but did identify a near significant trend towards decreased benefit in drugs with intrinsic sympathomimetic activity. Most evidence is available for propranolol, timolol, and metoprolol. In long term trials, the number needed to treat for 2 years to avoid a death is 42, which compares favourably with other treatments for patients with acute or past myocardial infarction.Conclusionsβ Blockers are effective in long term secondary prevention after myocardial infarction, but they are underused in such cases and lead to avoidable mortality and morbidity.

Key messages

• The first randomised trials of β blockade in secondary prevention after myocardial infarction were published in the 1960s
• β blockers were once heralded as a major advance, but their use for secondary prevention has declined in recent years
• Firm evidence shows that long term β blockade remains an effective and well tolerated treatment that reduces mortality and morbidity in unselected patients after myocardial infarction
• The benefits from β blockade compare favourably with other drug treatments for this patient group
• Most evidence is for propranolol, timolol, and metoprolol, whereas atenolol, which is commonly used, is inadequately evaluated for long term use

     

Use of lipid lowering drugs for primary prevention of coronary heart disease: meta-analysis of randomised trials

ObjectiveTo summarise the effect of primary prevention with lipid lowering drugs on coronary heart disease events, coronary heart disease mortality, and all cause mortality.DesignMeta-analysis.IdentificationSystematic search of the Medline database from January 1994 to June 1999 for English language studies examining drug treatment for lipid disorders (use of the MeSH terms “hyperlipidemia” and “anticholesteremic agents,” keyword searches for individual drug names, and a search strategy for identifying randomised trials to capture relevant articles); identification of older studies through systematic reviews and hand search of bibliographies.ResultsFour studies met eligibility criteria. Drug treatment reduced the odds of a coronary heart disease event by 30% (summary odds ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.79) but not the odds of all cause mortality (0.94, 0.81 to 1.09). When statin drugs were considered alone, no substantial differences in results were found.ConclusionsTreatment with lipid lowering drugs lasting five to seven years reduces coronary heart disease events but not all cause mortality in people with no known cardiovascular disease.     

Reducing the risk of major elective surgery: randomised controlled trial of preoperative optimisation of oxygen delivery

ObjectivesTo determine whether preoperative optimisation of oxygen delivery improves outcome after major elective surgery, and to determine whether the inotropes, adrenaline and dopexamine, used to enhance oxygen delivery influence outcome.DesignRandomised controlled trial with double blinding between inotrope groups.SettingYork District Hospital, England.Subjects138 patients undergoing major elective surgery who were at risk of developing postoperative complications either because of the surgery or the presence of coexistent medical conditions.InterventionsPatients were randomised into three groups. Two groups received invasive haemodynamic monitoring, fluid, and either adrenaline or dopexamine to increase oxygen delivery. Inotropic support was continued during surgery and for at least 12 hours afterwards. The third group (control) received routine perioperative care.ResultsOverall, 3/92 (3%) preoptimised patients died compared with 8/46 controls (17%) (P=0.007). There were no differences in mortality between the treatment groups, but 14/46 (30%) patients in the dopexamine group developed complications compared with 24/46 (52%) patients in the adrenaline group (difference 22%, 95% confidence interval 2% to 41%) and 28 patients (61%) in the control group (31%, 11% to 50%). The use of dopexamine was associated with a decreased length of stay in hospital.ConclusionRoutine preoperative optimisation of patients undergoing major elective surgery would be a significant and cost effective improvement in perioperative care.

Key messages

• Major elective surgery in UK general hospitals still carries significant mortality and morbidity
• Preoperative administration of fluid and inotropes, guided by invasive monitoring, can significantly reduce mortality, morbidity, and length of hospital stay
• The choice of inotrope may influence the extent of improvements in outcome
• Routine preoperative optimisation would require initial investment in high dependency care facilities but is likely to be cost effective by reducing complications and length of hospital stay

     

Association of systolic blood pressure with macrovascular and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 36): prospective observational study

ObjectiveTo determine the relation between systolic blood pressure over time and the risk of macrovascular or microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes.DesignProspective observational study.Setting23 hospital based clinics in England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.Participants4801 white, Asian Indian, and Afro-Caribbean UKPDS patients, whether randomised or not to treatment, were included in analyses of incidence; of these, 3642 were included in analyses of relative risk.ResultsThe incidence of clinical complications was significantly associated with systolic blood pressure, except for cataract extraction. Each 10 mm Hg decrease in updated mean systolic blood pressure was associated with reductions in risk of 12% for any complication related to diabetes (95% confidence interval 10% to 14%, P<0.0001), 15% for deaths related to diabetes (12% to 18%, P<0.0001), 11% for myocardial infarction (7% to 14%, P<0.0001), and 13% for microvascular complications (10% to 16%, P<0.0001). No threshold of risk was observed for any end point.ConclusionsIn patients with type 2 diabetes the risk of diabetic complications was strongly associated with raised blood pressure. Any reduction in blood pressure is likely to reduce the risk of complications, with the lowest risk being in those with systolic blood pressure less than 120 mm Hg.     

"Hospital at home" versus hospital care in patients with exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: prospective randomised controlled trial

ObjectivesTo compare “hospital at home” and hospital care as an inpatient in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.DesignProspective randomised controlled trial with three months'' follow up.SettingUniversity teaching hospital offering secondary care service to 350 000 patients.PatientsSelected patients with an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease where hospital admission had been recommended after medical assessment.InterventionsNurse administered home care was provided as an alternative to inpatient admission.Results583 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease referred for admission were assessed. 192 met the criteria for home care, and 42 refused to enter the trial. 100 were randomised to home care and 50 to hospital care. On admission, FEV₁ after use of a bronchodilator was 36.1% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 69.8%) predicted in home care and 35.1% (6.3% to 63.9%) predicted in hospital care. No significant difference was found in FEV₁ after use of a bronchodilator at two weeks (42.6%, 3.4% to 81.8% versus 42.1%, 5.1% to 79.1%) or three months (41.5%, 8.2% to 74.8% versus 41.9%, 6.2% to 77.6%) between the groups. 37% of patients receiving home care and 34% receiving hospital care were readmitted at three months. No significant difference was found in mortality between the groups at three months (9% versus 8%).ConclusionsHospital at home care is a practical alternative to emergency admission in selected patients with exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.     

Prophylactic activated recombinant factor VII in liver resection and liver transplantation: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and Aim

Intraoperative blood loss is a frequent complication of hepatic resection and orthotopic liver transplantation. Recombinant activated coagulation factor VII (rFVIIa) is a coagulation protein that induces hemostasis by directly activating factor X. There is no clear information about the prophylactic value of rFVIIa in hepatobiliary surgery, specifically in liver resection and orthotopic liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of rFVIIa prophylaxis to prevent mortality and bleeding resulting from hepatobiliary surgery.

Methods

Relevant randomized trials were identified by searching The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation Index. Randomized clinical trials comparing different rFVIIa prophylactic schemas against placebo or no intervention to prevent bleeding in hepatobiliary surgery were included. Adults undergoing liver resection, partial hepatectomy, or orthotopic liver transplantation were included. Dichotomous data were analyzed calculating odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Continuous data were analyzed calculating mean differences (MD) and 95% CIs.

Results

Four randomized controlled trials were included. There were no significant differences between rFVIIa and placebo for mortality (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.35–2.62), red blood cell units (MD 0.32; 95% CI −0.08–0.72) or adverse events (OR 1.55; 95% CI 0.97–2.49).

Conclusions

The available information is limited, precluding the ability to draw conclusions regarding bleeding prophylaxis in hepatobiliary surgery using rFVIIa. Although an apparent lack of effect was observed in all outcomes studied, further research is needed.     

Analysing the large decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the Icelandic population aged 25-74 between the years 1981 and 2006

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s. We examined how much of the decrease between 1981 and 2006 could be attributed to medical and surgical treatments and how much to changes in cardiovascular risk factors.

Methodology

The previously validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was applied to the Icelandic population. The data sources were official statistics, national quality registers, published trials and meta-analyses, clinical audits and a series of national population surveys.

Principal Findings

Between 1981 and 2006, CHD mortality rates in Iceland decreased by 80% in men and women aged 25 to 74 years, which resulted in 295 fewer deaths in 2006 than if the 1981 rates had persisted. Incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) decreased by 66% and resulted in some 500 fewer incident MI cases per year, which is a major determinant of possible deaths from MI. Based on the IMPACT model approximately 73% (lower and upper bound estimates: 54%–93%) of the mortality decrease was attributable to risk factor reductions: cholesterol 32%; smoking 22%; systolic blood pressure 22%, and physical inactivity 5% with adverse trends for diabetes (−5%), and obesity (−4%). Approximately 25% (lower and upper bound estimates: 8%–40%) of the mortality decrease was attributable to treatments in individuals: secondary prevention 8%; heart failure treatments 6%; acute coronary syndrome treatments 5%; revascularisation 3%; hypertension treatments 2%, and statins 0.5%.

Conclusions

Almost three quarters of the large CHD mortality decrease in Iceland between 1981 and 2006 was attributable to reductions in major cardiovascular risk factors in the population. These findings emphasize the value of a comprehensive prevention strategy that promotes tobacco control and a healthier diet to reduce incidence of MI and highlights the potential importance of effective, evidence based medical treatments.     

Addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

IntroductionRecently, studies have demonstrated that the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy could be associated with better outcomes in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, the benefit seems to be dependent on the drugs used in the chemotherapy regimens. This systematic review evaluated the strength of data on efficacy of the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC.MethodsPubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were searched. Eligible studies were randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that evaluated chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab in patients with advanced NSCLC. The outcomes included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), response rate (RR), toxicities and treatment related mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) were used for the meta-analysis and were expressed with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsWe included results reported from five RCTs, with a total of 2,252 patients included in the primary analysis, all of them using platinum-based chemotherapy regimens. Compared to chemotherapy alone, the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy resulted in a significant longer OS (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.79 to 0.99; p = 0.04), longer PFS (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.82; p<0.00001) and higher response rates (OR 2.34; 95% CI 1.89 to 2.89; p<0.00001). We found no heterogeneity between trials, in all comparisons. There was a slight increase in toxicities in bevacizumab group, as well as an increased rate of treatment-related mortality.ConclusionsThe addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy in patients with advanced NSCLC prolongs OS, PFS and RR. Considering the toxicities added, and the small absolute benefits found, bevacizumab plus platinum-based chemotherapy can be considered an option in selected patients with advanced NSCLC. However, risks and benefits should be discussed with patients before decision making.     

Screening for diabetes in general practice: cross sectional population study

ObjectiveTo assess the policy proposed by the American Diabetes Association of universal screening in general practice of all patients aged over 45 years for diabetes.Design Cross sectional population study.Setting Local general practice in the United Kingdom.Participants All patients aged over 45 not known to have diabetes.Results Of 2481 patients aged over 45 and not known to have diabetes, 876 attended for screening. There were no significant demographic differences between the screened and unscreened patients. Prevalence of diabetes in patients with age as a sole risk factor was 0.2% (95% confidence interval 0% to 1.4%). Prevalence of diabetes in patients with age and one or more other risk factors (hypertension, obesity, or a family history of diabetes) was 2.8% (1.6% to 4.7%). Four hours a week for a year would be needed to screen all people over 45 in the practice''s population; about half this time would be needed to screen patients with risk factors other than age. More than 80% of patients newly diagnosed as having diabetes had a 10 year risk of coronary heart disease >15%, 73% (45% to 92%) were hypertensive, and 73% (45% to 92%) had a cholesterol concentration >5 mmol/l.Conclusions Screening for diabetes in general practice by measuring fasting blood glucose is feasible but has a very low yield in patients whose sole risk factor for diabetes is age over 45. Screening in a low risk population would best be targeted at patients with multiple risk factors.

What is already known on this topic

Between a third and a half of cases of diabetes are undiagnosed at any one timeNew cases can be identified by screening groups of patients at riskThe American Diabetes Association has proposed the screening of all patients aged over 45 every three years

What this study adds

Screening for diabetes in general practice by measuring fasting blood glucose is feasible but requires much staff timeScreening solely on the basis of age has a very low yield and screening would best be targeted at patients with multiple risk factors for diabetes     

Exposure to foodborne and orofecal microbes versus airborne viruses in relation to atopy and allergic asthma: epidemiological study

ObjectiveTo investigate if markers of exposure to foodborne and orofecal microbes versus airborne viruses are associated with atopy and respiratory allergies.DesignRetrospective case-control study.Participants240 atopic cases and 240 non-atopic controls from a population sample of 1659 participants, all Italian male cadets aged 17-24.SettingAir force school in Caserta, Italy.ResultsCompared with controls there was a lower prevalence of T gondii (26% v 18%, P=0.027), hepatitis A virus (30% v 16%, P=0.004), and H pylori (18% v 15%, P=0.325) in atopic participants. Adjusted odds ratios of atopy decreased with a gradient of exposure to H pylori, T gondii, and hepatitis A virus (none, odds ratio 1; one, 0.70; two or three, 0.37; P for trend=0.000045) but not with cumulative exposure to the other viruses. Conversely, total IgE concentration was not independently associated with any infection. Allergic asthma was rare (1/245, 0.4%) and allergic rhinitis infrequent (16/245, 7%) among the participants (245/1659) exposed to at least two orofecal and foodborne infections (H pylori, T gondii, hepatitis A virus).ConclusionRespiratory allergy is less frequent in people heavily exposed to orofecal and foodborne microbes. Hygiene and a westernised, semisterile diet may facilitate atopy by influencing the overall pattern of commensals and pathogens that stimulate the gut associated lymphoid tissue thus contributing to the epidemic of allergic asthma and rhinitis in developed countries.     

Geographical representativeness of published and ongoing randomized controlled trials. The example of: Tobacco consumption and HIV infection

Background

The challenge for evidence-based healthcare is to reduce mortality and the burden of diseases. This study aimed to compare where research is conducted to where research is needed for 2 public health priorities: tobacco consumption and HIV infection.

Methods

We identified randomized controlled trials (RCTs) included in Cochrane systematic reviews published between 1997 and 2007 and registered ongoing RCTs identified in January 2009 through the World Health Organization''s International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO-ICTRP) evaluating interventions aimed at reducing or stopping tobacco use and treating or preventing HIV infection. We used the WHO and World Bank reports to classify the countries by income level, as well as map the global burden of disease and mortality attributable to tobacco use and HIV infection to the countries where the trials performed.

Results

We evaluated 740 RCTs included in systematic reviews and 346 ongoing RCTs. For tobacco use, 4% of RCTs included in systematic reviews and 2% of ongoing trials were performed in low- and middle-income countries, even though these countries represented 70% of the mortality related to tobacco use. For HIV infection, 31% of RCTs included in systematic reviews and 33% of ongoing trials were performed in low- and middle-income countries, even though these countries represented 99% of the mortality related to HIV infection.

Conclusions

Our results highlight an important underrepresentation of low- and middle-income countries in currently available evidence (RCTs included in systematic reviews) and awaiting evidence (registered ongoing RCTs) for reducing or stopping tobacco use and treating or preventing HIV infection.     

Net benefits: a multicountry analysis of observational data examining associations between insecticide-treated mosquito nets and health outcomes

Background

Several sub-Saharan African countries have rapidly scaled up the number of households that own insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs). Although the efficacy of ITNs in trials has been shown, evidence on their impact under routine conditions is limited to a few countries and the extent to which the scale-up of ITNs has improved population health remains uncertain.

Methods and Findings

We used matched logistic regression to assess the individual-level association between household ITN ownership or use in children under 5 years of age and the prevalence of parasitemia among children using six malaria indicator surveys (MIS) and one demographic and health survey. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the relationship between ITN household ownership and child mortality using 29 demographic and health surveys. The pooled relative reduction in parasitemia prevalence from random effects meta-analysis associated with household ownership of at least one ITN was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3%–35%; I ² = 73.5%, p<0.01 for I ² value). Sleeping under an ITN was associated with a pooled relative reduction in parasitemia prevalence in children of 24% (95% CI 1%–42%; I ² = 79.5%, p<0.001 for I ² value). Ownership of at least one ITN was associated with a pooled relative reduction in mortality between 1 month and 5 years of age of 23% (95% CI 13–31%; I ² = 25.6%, p>0.05 for I ² value).

Conclusions

Our findings across a number of sub-Saharan African countries were highly consistent with results from previous clinical trials. These findings suggest that the recent scale-up in ITN coverage has likely been accompanied by significant reductions in child mortality and that additional health gains could be achieved with further increases in ITN coverage in populations at risk of malaria. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Disability in young people and adults one year after head injury: prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo determine the frequency of disability in young people and adults admitted to hospital with a head injury and to estimate the annual incidence in the community.DesignProspective, hospital based cohort study, with one year follow up of sample stratified by coma score.SettingFive acute hospitals in Glasgow.Subjects2962 patients (aged 14 years or more) with head injury; 549 (71%) of the 769 patients selected for follow up participated.ResultsSurvival with moderate or severe disability was common after mild head injury (47%, 95% confidence interval 42% to 52%) and similar to that after moderate (45%, 35% to 56%) or severe injury (48%, 36% to 60%). By extrapolation from the population identified (90% of whom had mild injuries), it was estimated that annually in Glasgow (population 909 498) 1400 young people and adults are still disabled one year after head injury.ConclusionThe incidence of disability in young people and adults admitted with a head injury is higher than expected. This reflects the high rate of sequelae previously unrecognised in the large number of patients admitted to hospital with an apparently mild head injury.     

Randomised controlled trial of homoeopathy versus placebo in perennial allergic rhinitis with overview of four trial series

ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that homoeopathy is a placebo by examining its effect in patients with allergic rhinitis and so contest the evidence from three previous trials in this series.DesignRandomised, double blind, placebo controlled, parallel group, multicentre study.SettingFour general practices and a hospital ear, nose, and throat outpatient department.Participants51 patients with perennial allergic rhinitis.InterventionRandom assignment to an oral 30c homoeopathic preparation of principal inhalant allergen or to placebo.ResultsFifty patients completed the study. The homoeopathy group had a significant objective improvement in nasal airflow compared with the placebo group (mean difference 19.8 l/min, 95% confidence interval 10.4 to 29.1, P=0.0001). Both groups reported improvement in symptoms, with patients taking homoeopathy reporting more improvement in all but one of the centres, which had more patients with aggravations. On average no significant difference between the groups was seen on visual analogue scale scores. Initial aggravations of rhinitis symptoms were more common with homoeopathy than placebo (7 (30%) v 2 (7%), P=0.04). Addition of these results to those of three previous trials (n=253) showed a mean symptom reduction on visual analogue scores of 28% (10.9 mm) for homoeopathy compared with 3% (1.1 mm) for placebo (95% confidence interval 4.2 to 15.4, P=0.0007).ConclusionThe objective results reinforce earlier evidence that homoeopathic dilutions differ from placebo.     

Double blind, cluster randomised trial of low dose supplementation with vitamin A or beta carotene on mortality related to pregnancy in Nepal. The NNIPS-2 Study Group

ObjectiveTo assess the impact on mortality related to pregnancy of supplementing women of reproductive age each week with a recommended dietary allowance of vitamin A, either preformed or as β carotene.DesignDouble blind, cluster randomised, placebo controlled field trial.SettingRural southeast central plains of Nepal (Sarlahi district).Subjects44 646 married women, of whom 20 119 became pregnant 22 189 times.Intervention270 wards randomised to 3 groups of 90 each for women to receive weekly a single oral supplement of placebo, vitamin A (7000 μg retinol equivalents) or β carotene (42 mg, or 7000 μg retinol equivalents) for over 3½ years.ResultsMortality related to pregnancy in the placebo, vitamin A, and β carotene groups was 704, 426, and 361 deaths per 100 000 pregnancies, yielding relative risks (95% confidence intervals) of 0.60 (0.37 to 0.97) and 0.51 (0.30 to 0.86). This represented reductions of 40% (P<0.04) and 49% (P<0.01) among those who received vitamin A and β carotene. Combined, vitamin A or β carotene lowered mortality by 44% (0.56 (0.37 to 0.84), P<0.005) and reduced the maternal mortality ratio from 645 to 385 deaths per 100 000 live births, or by 40% (P<0.02). Differences in cause of death could not be reliably distinguished between supplemented and placebo groups.ConclusionSupplementation of women with either vitamin A or β carotene at recommended dietary amounts during childbearing years can lower mortality related to pregnancy in rural, undernourished populations of south Asia.

Key messages

• Maternal vitamin A deficiency, evident as night blindness or low serum retinol concentration during pregnancy, is widely prevalent in rural south Asia
• In Nepal, women of reproductive age who were given 7000 μg retinol equivalents of vitamin A on a weekly basis showed a reduction in mortality related to pregnancy of 40%
• Weekly dosing with 42 mg β carotene (also providing 7000 μg retinol equivalents) lowered their mortality by 49%
• Preventing maternal vitamin A deficiency in rural South Asia can lower the risk of mortality of women during and after pregnancy

     

Systematic review of comparative efficacy and tolerability of calcipotriol in treating chronic plaque psoriasis

ObjectivesTo evaluate the comparative efficacy and tolerability of topical calcipotriol in the treatment of mild to moderate chronic plaque psoriasis.DesignQuantitative systematic review of randomised controlled trials.Subjects6038 patients with plaque psoriasis reported in 37 trials.ResultsCalcipotriol was at least as effective as potent topical corticosteroids, calcitriol, short contact dithranol, tacalcitol, coal tar, and combined coal tar 5%, allantoin 2%, and hydrocortisone 0.5%. Calcipotriol caused significantly more skin irritation than potent topical corticosteroids (number needed to treat to harm for irritation 10, 95% confidence interval 6 to 34). Calcipotriol monotherapy also caused more irritation than calcipotriol combined with a potent topical corticosteroid (6, 4 to 8). However, the number needed to treat for dithranol to produce lesional or perilesional irritation was 4 (3 to 5). On average, treating 23 patients with short contact dithranol led to one more patient dropping out of treatment owing to adverse effects than if they were treated with calcipotriol.ConclusionsCalcipotriol is an effective treatment for mild to moderate chronic plaque psoriasis, more so than calcitriol, tacalcitol, coal tar, and short contact dithranol. Only potent topical corticosteroids seem to have comparable efficacy at eight weeks. Although calcipotriol caused more skin irritation than topical corticosteroids this has to be balanced against the potential long term effects of corticosteroids. Skin irritation rarely led to withdrawal of calcipotriol treatment. Longer term comparative trials of calcipotriol versus dithranol and topical corticosteroids are needed to see whether these short term benefits are mirrored by long term outcomes such as duration of remission and improvement in quality of life.     

Systematic review of long term anticoagulation or antiplatelet treatment in patients with non-rheumatic atrial fibrillation

ObjectiveTo examine the benefits and risks of long term anticoagulation (warfarin) compared with antiplatelet treatment (aspirin/indoprofen) in patients with non-rheumatic atrial fibrillation.MethodsMeta-analysis of randomised controlled trials from Cochrane library, Medline, Embase, Cinhal, and Sigle from 1966 to December 1999. Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) calculated to estimate treatment effects.ResultsNo trials were found from before 1989. There were five randomised controlled trials published between 1989-99. There were no significant differences in mortality between the two treatment options (fixed effects model: odd ratio 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.39 to 1.40) for stroke deaths; 0.86 (0.63 to 1.17) for vascular deaths). There was a borderline significant difference in non-fatal stroke in favour of anticoagulation (0.68 (0.46 to 0.99)); and 0.75 (0.50 to 1.13) after exclusion of one trial with weak methodological design. A random effects model showed no significant difference in combined fatal and non-fatal events (odds ratio 0.79 (0.61 to 1.02)). There were more major bleeding events among patients on anticoagulation than on antiplatelet treatment (odds ratio 1.45 (0.93 to 2.27)). One trial was stopped prematurely after a significant difference in favour of anticoagulation was observed. The only trial to show a significant difference in effect (favouring anticoagulation) was methodologically weaker in design than the others.ConclusionsThe heterogeneity between the trials and the limited data result in considerable uncertainty about the value of long term anticoagulation compared with antiplatelet treatment. The risks of bleeding and the higher cost of anticoagulation make it an even less convincing treatment option.     

Reduction in mortality after inappropriate early discharge from intensive care unit: logistic regression triage model

ObjectiveTo develop a predictive model to triage patients for discharge from intensive care units to reduce mortality after discharge.DesignLogistic regression analyses and modelling of data from patients who were discharged from intensive care units.SettingGuy''s hospital intensive care unit and 19 other UK intensive care units from 1989 to 1998.Participants5475 patients for the development of the model and 8449 for validation.ResultsMortality after discharge from intensive care was up to 12.4%. The triage model identified patients at risk from death on the ward with a sensitivity of 65.5% and specificity of 87.6%, and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.86. Variables in the model were age, end stage disease, length of stay in unit, cardiothoracic surgery, and physiology. In the validation dataset the 34% of the patients identified as at risk had a discharge mortality of 25% compared with a 4% mortality among those not at risk.ConclusionsThe discharge mortality of at risk patients may be reduced by 39% if they remain in intensive care units for another 48 hours. The discharge triage model to identify patients at risk from too early and inappropriate discharge from intensive care may help doctors to make the difficult clinical decision of whom to discharge to make room for a patient requiring urgent admission to the unit. If confirmed, this study has implications on the provision of resources.

What is already known on this topic

In the United Kingdom, the mortality of patients who die on the ward after discharge from intensive care is unacceptably high (9% to 27%)Indirect evidence has shown that this is due to too early and inappropriate discharge from intensive care that has increased over the past 10 years

What this study adds

A triage model identifies patients at risk from inappropriate discharge from intensive careMortality after discharge from intensive care may be reduced by 39% if these patients were to stay in intensive care for another 48 hoursAn estimated 16% more beds are required if mortality after discharge from intensive care is to be reduced