Estimating relative decline in populations of subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) due to baiting.

Although mark-recapture protocols produce inaccurate population estimates of termite colonies, they might be employed to estimate a relative change in colony size. This possibility was tested using two Australian, mound-building, wood-eating, subterranean Coptotermes species. Three different toxicants delivered in baits were used to decrease (but not eliminate) colony size, and a single mark-recapture protocol was used to estimate pre- and postbaiting population sizes. For both species, the numbers of termites retrieved from bait stations varied widely, resulting in no significant differences in the numbers of termites sampled between treatments in either the pre- or postbaiting protocols. There were significantly fewer termites sampled in all treatments, controls included, in the postbaiting protocol compared with the pre-, suggesting a seasonal change in forager numbers. The comparison of population estimates shows a large decrease in toxicant treated colonies compared with little change in control colonies, which suggests that estimating the relative decline in population size using mark-recapture protocols might to be possible. However, the change in population estimate was due entirely to the significantly lower recapture rate in the control colonies relative to the toxicant treated colonies, as numbers of unmarked termites did not change between treatments. The population estimates should be treated with caution because low recapture rates produce dubious population estimates and, in some cases, postbaiting mark-recapture population estimates could be much greater than those at prebaiting, despite consumption of bait in sufficient quantities to cause population decline. A possible interaction between fat-stain markers and toxicants should be investigated if mark-recapture population estimates are used. Alternative methods of population change are advised, along with other indirect measures.     

Reliability of noninvasive genetic census of otters compared to field censuses

Conservation and management actions are often highly dependent on accurate estimations of population sizes. However, these estimates are difficult to obtain for elusive and rare species. We compared two census methods for Eurasian otter: snow tracking and noninvasive genetic census based on the genotyping of faecal samples. With the noninvasive genetic census we detected the presence of almost twice as many otters as with snow tracking (23 and 10–15, respectively), and mark-recapture estimates based on the genetic census indicated that the real number of otters could be even higher. Our results indicate that snow tracking tends to underestimate the number of individuals and also that it is more susceptible to subjective assessment. We compared the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.     

To catch or to sight? A comparison of demographic parameter estimates obtained from mark-recapture and mark-resight models

Accurate assessments of population parameters, such as survival and abundance, are critical for effective wildlife conservation. In order for wildlife managers to undertake long-term monitoring of populations, the data collection must be as cost-effective as possible. Two demographic modelling techniques commonly used are mark-recapture and mark-resight. Mark-resight can be used in conjunction with biotelemetry methods and offers a more cost effective alternative to the traditional mark-recapture models. However, there has been no empirical comparison of the demographic parameters obtained from the two modelling techniques. This study used photographs of natural markings to individually identify wobbegong sharks (Orectolobus maculatus) sighted during underwater surveys over a 2 year period, during eight distinct sampling periods, and analysed with Pollock’s robust design mark-recapture models. These estimates were then compared, using z tests, with Poisson-lognormal mark-resight models that used resightings of sharks previously tagged with telemetry transmitters, and the telemetry data to calculate the number of marked animals present in each sampling period. Sharks were categorised into four groups according to their sex and age-class (adult/juvenile). The results indicated that there was a high degree of transience in the population, with 62 % of sharks only being sighted in one sampling period. Based on normalized Akaike weights, there was no single ‘best’ model for either type of modelling technique and model averaging was used to determine the demographic estimates. Both models showed higher abundance of wobbegongs in the austral spring and summer seasons, however, the models produced statistically different results for five of the eight sampling periods. The mark-recapture model estimated apparent survival between 78 and 95 %, whereas the mark-resight models estimated it between 48 and 97 %. Crucially, there was no statistical difference between the survival estimates from corresponding sex/age-class. The temporary emigration parameters differed substantially between the model types. The mark-recapture model showed support for Markovian movement, whereas the mark-resight supported random emigration. The timing of the tagging events likely biased the abundance and temporary emigration parameters estimated by mark-resight models and must be taken into consideration when designing a mark-resight study. Despite this, this study shows that robust demographic estimates, that are comparable to labour intensive mark-recapture estimates, can still be obtained using mark-resight methods. Given the substantial increase in biotelemetry studies of medium and large sized vertebrates, mark-resight models may play an important future role in estimating demographic parameters.     

Evaluating Abundance Estimate Precision and the Assumptions of a Count-Based Index for Small Mammals

ABSTRACT Conservation and management of small mammals requires reliable knowledge of population size. We investigated precision of mark-recapture and removal abundance estimates generated from live-trapping and snap-trapping data collected at sites on Guam (n = 7), Rota (n = 4), Saipan (n = 5), and Tinian (n = 3), in the Mariana Islands. We also evaluated a common index, captures per unit effort (CPUE), as a predictor of abundance. In addition, we evaluated cost and time associated with implementing live-trapping and snap-trapping and compared species-specific capture rates of selected live- and snap-traps. For all species, mark-recapture estimates were consistently more precise than removal estimates based on coefficients of variation and 95% confidence intervals. The predictive utility of CPUE was poor but improved with increasing sampling duration. Nonetheless, modeling of sampling data revealed that underlying assumptions critical to application of an index of abundance, such as constant capture probability across space, time, and individuals, were not met. Although snap-trapping was cheaper and faster than live-trapping, the time difference was negligible when site preparation time was considered. Rattus diardii spp. captures were greatest in Haguruma live-traps (Standard Trading Co., Honolulu, HI) and Victor snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation, Lititz, PA), whereas Suncus murinus and Mus musculus captures were greatest in Sherman live-traps (H. B. Sherman Traps, Inc., Tallahassee, FL) and Museum Special snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation). Although snap-trapping and CPUE may have utility after validation against more rigorous methods, validation should occur across the full range of study conditions. Resources required for this level of validation would likely be better allocated towards implementing rigorous and robust methods.     

Challenges of DNA-Based Mark-Recapture Studies of American Black Bears

Abstract: We explored whether genetic sampling would be feasible to provide a region-wide population estimate for American black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachians, USA. Specifically, we determined whether adequate capture probabilities (p > 0.20) and population estimates with a low coefficient of variation (CV < 20%) could be achieved given typical agency budget and personnel constraints. We extracted DNA from hair collected from baited barbed-wire enclosures sampled over a 10-week period on 2 study areas: a high-density black bear population in a portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park and a lower density population on National Forest lands in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. We identified individual bears by their unique genotypes obtained from 9 microsatellite loci. We sampled 129 and 60 different bears in the National Park and National Forest study areas, respectively, and applied closed mark-recapture models to estimate population abundance. Capture probabilities and precision of the population estimates were acceptable only for sampling scenarios for which we pooled weekly sampling periods. We detected capture heterogeneity biases, probably because of inadequate spatial coverage by the hair-trapping grid. The logistical challenges of establishing and checking a sufficiently high density of hair traps make DNA-based estimates of black bears impractical for the southern Appalachian region. Alternatives are to estimate population size for smaller areas, estimate population growth rates or survival using mark-recapture methods, or use independent marking and recapturing techniques to reduce capture heterogeneity.     

Mark-Recapture and Mark-Resight Methods for Estimating Abundance with Remote Cameras: A Carnivore Case Study

Abundance estimation of carnivore populations is difficult and has prompted the use of non-invasive detection methods, such as remotely-triggered cameras, to collect data. To analyze photo data, studies focusing on carnivores with unique pelage patterns have utilized a mark-recapture framework and studies of carnivores without unique pelage patterns have used a mark-resight framework. We compared mark-resight and mark-recapture estimation methods to estimate bobcat (Lynx rufus) population sizes, which motivated the development of a new "hybrid" mark-resight model as an alternative to traditional methods. We deployed a sampling grid of 30 cameras throughout the urban southern California study area. Additionally, we physically captured and marked a subset of the bobcat population with GPS telemetry collars. Since we could identify individual bobcats with photos of unique pelage patterns and a subset of the population was physically marked, we were able to use traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight methods, as well as the new “hybrid” mark-resight model we developed to estimate bobcat abundance. We recorded 109 bobcat photos during 4,669 camera nights and physically marked 27 bobcats with GPS telemetry collars. Abundance estimates produced by the traditional mark-recapture, traditional mark-resight, and “hybrid” mark-resight methods were similar, however precision differed depending on the models used. Traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight estimates were relatively imprecise with percent confidence interval lengths exceeding 100% of point estimates. Hybrid mark-resight models produced better precision with percent confidence intervals not exceeding 57%. The increased precision of the hybrid mark-resight method stems from utilizing the complete encounter histories of physically marked individuals (including those never detected by a camera trap) and the encounter histories of naturally marked individuals detected at camera traps. This new estimator may be particularly useful for estimating abundance of uniquely identifiable species that are difficult to sample using camera traps alone.     

Dispersal in a stream dwelling salmonid: Inferences from tagging and microsatellite studies

We used both direct (mark-recapture) andindirect (microsatellite analysis)methodologies to investigate dispersal betweentwo putative populations of brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Freshwater River,Cape Race, Newfoundland, Canada. Over a 5-yearstudy period, mark-recapture data revealed somemovement by fish, but the proportion ofrecaptured fish migrating from one populationarea to another was low (0–4.1%).Additionally, during sampling periods in thespawning seasons, no fish was found in thealternate population area to that of its firstcapture. Despite this pattern of limitedmovement, microsatellite analysis based onsixteen polymorphic loci provided no evidenceof genetic differentiation. Indirect estimatesof dispersal parameters varied greatly betweendifferent methods of analysis. While use of acoalescent-based model yielded estimatedmigration rates congruent with the results ofthe mark-recapture study, other methodsresulted in much higher estimates of migrationbetween the populations. In particular, thelack of genetic differentiation coupled withlikely violations of the assumed island modelprevented generation of meaningful estimates ofdispersal using F_st. The disparitiesbetween migration rates estimated from themark-recapture work and from the differentindirect methods highlight the difficulties ofusing indirect methods to estimate dispersal onan ecological timescale. However,mark-recapture methods can fail to detecthistorical or episodic movement that isimportant in an evolutionary context, and wetherefore argue that a combination of directand indirect methods can provide a morecomplete picture of dispersal than eitherapproach alone.     

A simulation study of how simple mark-recapture methods can be combined with destructive subsampling to facilitate surveys of flying insects

Mark-recapture techniques are used for studies of animal populations. With only three sampling occasions, both Bailey's triple-catch (BTC) and Jolly-Seber's (J-S) stochastic method can be applied. As marking and handling of fragile organisms may harm them, and thereby affect their chances of being recaptured, handling should be minimized. This can be achieved by taking a subsample before the main sample at the second sampling occasion. Individuals in the main sample are marked and released, whereas those in the subsample are only used for identifying recaptures. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to compare the subsampling method with the ordinary mark-recapture methods. Model-generated populations were sampled with and without subsampling to provide estimates of population size, loss, and dilution rates. The estimated parameters were compared with their true values to identify biases associated with the sampling methods, using 81 different combinations of population size, dilution rate, loss rate, and sampling effort. Each combination was replicated 1,000 times. In no cases did subsampling perform more poorly than the ordinary methods. J-S was slightly more accurate than BTC to estimate the population size, but only when sampling effort was high. The relative biases associated with estimates of dilution and loss rates were substantial, but declined with increasing population size and sampling effort. Confidence limits for the population parameters generally were reliable and tended to be conservative. We therefore conclude that ordinary mark-recapture methods can be supplemented with subsampling without sacrificing accuracy. Subsampling is especially advantageous in cases where marks are difficult to observe under field conditions.     

Effect of search method and age class on mark-recapture parameter estimation in a population of red-backed salamanders

Mark-recapture methods are generally considered to more accurately reflect population trends than count data, which is especially important for indicator species. Terrestrial salamanders are often used as indicators of forest ecosystem health and may be monitored through diurnal cover object searches or nocturnal activity searches. Our goal was to determine whether search method affected encounter probabilities, whether these probabilities differed between age classes, and whether the inclusion of search method in mark-recapture models affected abundance estimates. We used program MARK to analyze 3 years of red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) mark-recapture data using Pollock’s robust design taken from a 144 m² plot. Initial encounter probabilities during night searches were consistently greater than during diurnal cover object searches. As a result, inclusion of search method in models sometimes affected abundance estimates. There was no difference between adult and juvenile encounter probabilities nor were abundance estimates affected by inclusion of age class, but there was yearly variation in the juvenile abundance estimates. For these reasons, we recommend that sampling of terrestrial salamanders include nocturnal activity searches and be conducted over multiple years. Monitoring programs of other species should take into account whether the selected search method(s) may be more likely to sample different subsets of the population of interest and how this may restrict their inferences.     

Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

ABSTRACT.   Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993–2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available.     

Searching for a Needle in a Haystack: Evaluating Survey Methods for Non-indigenous Plant Species

The control and management of non-indigenous plant species (NIS) can be conceptually divided into three phases: inventory/survey, monitoring and management. Here we focus on phase one, determining which species are present and where they are located within the environment. Sampling for NIS is inherently time-consuming and thus costly. Many management areas are large and therefore can only be surveyed (partial observation of the total area by sampling) and not inventoried (total observation of area). Survey data should reflect the spatial distribution of the target species populations over the landscape. Such data can then be used in combination with environmental data, to create probability maps of target species occurrence for the entire area of interest. We used a GIS model to evaluate seven different survey methods for consistency and reliability of intersecting NIS species’ patches and producing samples which reflect the spatial distribution of the population, and which can be performed in a cost and time-efficient manner. The GIS model was developed to create NIS populations which were then sampled using the different survey methods, and the results recorded. To improve the applicability of the model, four patch sizes and levels of occurrence were used, along with random and weighted distribution patterns in relation to patch proximity to roads and trails. Grid and random points, and targeted (stratified continuous) transects (starting on a road or trail (rights of way (RoW)) and finishing 2 km from any RoW) methods provided the most consistent samples of the population. Logistically, point methods required an unrealistic distance and time commitment in comparison with transect methods. The importance of collecting information on the size of NIS patches was demonstrated as more small patches were intersected than larger ones when the area infested was held constant. Thus, if frequency of patches is used to explain the results of a survey then comparisons between species and methods are difficult to interpret thus leading to erroneous conclusions. However, use of percentage of area infested estimates provides for easier comparison between species and sample methods. The targeted transect method provided the most reliable, efficient and consistent sample with the expected spatial distribution.     

The effect of temperature and saturation deficit on mortality in populations of male Glossina m. morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) in Zimbabwe and Tanzania

The methods of Bailey and of Jolly and Seber were used to provide maximum likelihood estimates of population parameters for Jackson's classical mark-recapture experiments on males of the tsetse fly Glossina m. morsitans Westwood. These were compared with Jolly-Seber (J-S) estimates for the same fly from more recent work on Antelope Island, Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. The Bailey estimates of birth and death rates and total population size had markedly lower variances than Jackson's originals. Both sets of estimates provided moving averages over 6-week periods, whereas the Jolly-Seber analysis provided independent weekly estimates and their variance is consequently higher. Saturation deficit and maximum temperature (Tmax) accounted for 11 and 16% respectively of the variance in independent 4-week means of the weekly J-S survival probabilities. Analysis of covariance, carried out on a joint data set of smoothed J-S estimates of the survival probability in Tanzania and Zimbabwe, showed a significant effect of Tmax on survival. When this effect was removed, the survival probability in the Tanzania studies was found to be 8% lower than on Antelope Island. The two effects accounted for 50% of the variance in the joint data. When saturation deficit was substituted for Tmax, regression only accounted for 35% of the variance. If saturation deficit is important in determining tsetse survival, it must act on stages other than the post-teneral adult. Given the continuous increase in mortality, even at moderate temperatures, it is hard to envisage a direct effect of Tmax. There may be an indirect effect, however, via the number of hunger-related deaths resulting from the increase in the feeding rate with increasing temperature.     

Surveying an endangered saproxylic beetle, Osmoderma eremita, in Mediterranean woodlands: a comparison between different capture methods

Measuring population size is riddled with difficulties for wildlife biologists and managers, and in the case of rare species, it is sometimes practically impossible to estimate abundance, whereas estimation of occupancy is possible. Furthermore, obtaining reliable population size estimates is not straightforward, as different sampling techniques can give misleading results. A mark-recapture study of the endangered saproxylic beetle Osmoderma eremita was performed in central Italy by applying four independent capture methods within a study area where 116 hollow trees were randomly selected to set traps. Detection probability and population size estimates were drawn from each of these four capture methods. There were strong differences in detection probability among methods. Despite using pheromone and beetle manipulation, capture histories were not affected by trap-happiness or trap-shyness. Population size estimates varied considerably in both abundance and precision by capture method. A number of 0.5 and 0.2 adult beetles per tree was estimated using the whole data set by closed and open population models, respectively. Pitfall trap appeared the optimal method to detect the occurrence of this species. Since in the southern part of its distribution range, a single population of O. eremita is widespread in the landscape, and includes beetles from more than one hollow tree, conservation efforts should focus not only on preserving few and isolated monumental hollow trees, but should be extended to large stands.     

Petersen and removal population size estimates: combining methods to adjust and interpret results when assumptions are violated

Synopsis We present ways to test the assumptions of the Petersen and removal methods of population size estimation and ways to adjust the estimates if violations of the assumptions are found. We were motivated by the facts that (1) results of using both methods are commonly reported without any reference to the testing of assumptions, (2) violations of the assumptions are more likely to occur than not to occur in natural populations, and (3) the estimates can be grossly in error if assumptions are violated. We recognize that in many cases two days in the field is the most time fish biologists can spend in obtaining a population estimate, so the use of alternative models of population estimation that require fewer assumptions is precluded. Hence, for biologists operating with these constraints and only these biologists, we describe and recommend a two-day technique that combines aspects of both capture-recapture and removal methods. We indicate how to test: most of the assumptions of both methods and how to adjust the population estimates obtained if violations of the assumptions occur. We also illustrate the use of this combined method with data from a field study. The results of this application further emphasize the importance of testing the assumptions of whatever method is used and making appropriate adjustments to the population size estimates for any violations identified.     

Ecological and methodological factors affecting detectability and population estimation in elusive species

Although mark-recapture methods are among the most powerful tools for monitoring wildlife populations, the secretive nature of some species requires a comprehensive understanding of the factors that affect capture probability to maximize accuracy and precision of population parameter estimates (e.g., population size and survivorship). Here, we used aquatic snakes as a case study in applying rigorous mark-recapture methods to estimate population parameters for secretive species. Specifically, we used intensive field sampling and robust design mark-recapture analyses in Program MARK to test specific hypotheses about ecological and methodological factors influencing detectability of two species of secretive aquatic snakes, the banded watersnake (Nerodia fasciata), and the black swamp snake (Seminatrix pygaea). We constructed a candidate set of a priori mark-recapture models incorporating various combinations of time- and sex-varying capture and recapture probabilities, behavioral responses to traps (i.e., trap-happiness or trap-shyness), and temporary emigration, and we ranked models for each species using Akaike's Information Criterion. For both banded watersnakes and black swamp snakes we found strong support for time-varying capture and recapture probabilities and strong trap-happy responses, factors that can bias population estimation if not accommodated in the models. We also found evidence of sex-dependent temporary emigration in black swamp snakes. Our study is among the first comprehensive assessments of factors affecting detectability in snakes and provides a framework for studies aimed at monitoring populations of other secretive species. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.     

Quantifying Extinction Probabilities from Sighting Records: Inference and Uncertainties

Methods are needed to estimate the probability that a population is extinct, whether to underpin decisions regarding the continuation of a invasive species eradication program, or to decide whether further searches for a rare and endangered species could be warranted. Current models for inferring extinction probability based on sighting data typically assume a constant or declining sighting rate. We develop methods to analyse these models in a Bayesian framework to estimate detection and survival probabilities of a population conditional on sighting data. We note, however, that the assumption of a constant or declining sighting rate may be hard to justify, especially for incursions of invasive species with potentially positive population growth rates. We therefore explored introducing additional process complexity via density-dependent survival and detection probabilities, with population density no longer constrained to be constant or decreasing. These models were applied to sparse carcass discoveries associated with the recent incursion of the European red fox (Vulpes vulpes) into Tasmania, Australia. While a simple model provided apparently precise estimates of parameters and extinction probability, estimates arising from the more complex model were much more uncertain, with the sparse data unable to clearly resolve the underlying population processes. The outcome of this analysis was a much higher possibility of population persistence. We conclude that if it is safe to assume detection and survival parameters are constant, then existing models can be readily applied to sighting data to estimate extinction probability. If not, methods reliant on these simple assumptions are likely overstating their accuracy, and their use to underpin decision-making potentially fraught. Instead, researchers will need to more carefully specify priors about possible population processes.     

PROBLEMS WITH SAMPLING DESERT TORTOISES: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS BASED ON FIELD DATA

Abstract: The desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) was listed as a U.S. threatened species in 1990 based largely on population declines inferred from mark-recapture surveys of 2.59-km² (1-mi²) plots. Since then, several census methods have been proposed and tested, but all methods still pose logistical or statistical difficulties. We conducted computer simulations using actual tortoise location data from 2 1-mi² plot surveys in southern California, USA, to identify strengths and weaknesses of current sampling strategies. We considered tortoise population estimates based on these plots as “truth” and then tested various sampling methods based on sampling smaller plots or transect lines passing through the mile squares. Data were analyzed using Schnabel's mark-recapture estimate and program CAPTURE. Experimental subsampling with replacement of the 1-mi² data using 1-km² and 0.25-km² plot boundaries produced data sets of smaller plot sizes, which we compared to estimates from the 1-mi² plots. We also tested distance sampling by saturating a 1-mi² site with computer simulated transect lines, once again evaluating bias in density estimates. Subsampling estimates from 1-km² plots did not differ significantly from the estimates derived at 1-mi². The 0.25-km² subsamples significantly overestimated population sizes, chiefly because too few recaptures were made. Distance sampling simulations were biased 80% of the time and had high coefficient of variation to density ratios. Furthermore, a prospective power analysis suggested limited ability to detect population declines as high as 50%. We concluded that poor performance and bias of both sampling procedures was driven by insufficient sample size, suggesting that all efforts must be directed to increasing numbers found in order to produce reliable results. Our results suggest that present methods may not be capable of accurately estimating desert tortoise populations.     

Recapture Heterogeneity in Cliff Swallows: Increased Exposure to Mist Nets Leads to Net Avoidance

Ecologists often use mark-recapture to estimate demographic variables such as abundance, growth rate, or survival for samples of wild animal populations. A common assumption underlying mark-recapture is that all animals have an equal probability of detection, and failure to meet or correct for this assumption–as when certain members of the population are either easier or more difficult to capture than other animals–can lead to biased and inaccurate demographic estimates. We built within-year and among-years Cormack-Jolly-Seber recaptures-only models to identify causes of capture heterogeneity for a population of colonially nesting cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) caught using mist-netting as a part of a 20-year mark-recapture study in southwestern Nebraska, U.S.A. Daily detection of cliff swallows caught in stationary mist nets at their colony sites declined as the birds got older and as the frequency of netting at a site within a season increased. Experienced birds’ avoidance of the net could be countered by sudden disturbances that startled them into a net, such as when we dropped a net over the side of a bridge or flushed nesting cliff swallows into a stationary net positioned at a colony entrance. Our results support the widely held, but seldom tested, belief that birds learn to avoid stationary mist nets over time, but also show that modifications of traditional field methods can reduce this source of recapture heterogeneity.     

Population Estimates of Snowshoe Hares in the Southern Rocky Mountains

Abstract: In 1999 Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) were reintroduced to the southern Rocky Mountains and in 2000 the species was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the contiguous United States (Colorado Division of Wildlife 2000, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2000). To better evaluate the progress of this reintroduction, we conducted field studies to estimate population densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), the primary prey of lynx in Colorado, USA. We conducted our field studies in southwestern Colorado in winters 2002 and 2003. We estimated population densities in forested stands of mature Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii)-subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) and mature lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) using mark-recapture data and 3 methods for estimating effective area trapped: half trap interval, mean maximum distance moved (MMDM), and half MMDM. In Engelmann spruce-subalpine fir, we found density estimates ranged from 0.08 ± 0.03 (SE) hares/ha to 1.32 ± 0.15 hares/ha and in lodgepole pine, density estimates ranged from 0.06 ± 0.01 hares/ha to 0.34 ± 0.06 hares/ha, depending on year and method used for estimating effective area trapped. Our density estimates are similar to those reported at the low phase of the hare cycle in populations to the north (<0.1–1.1 hares/ha), where Canada lynx persist (Hodges 2000a). Although density estimates are a useful comparative tool, they depend upon methods used to estimate effective area trapped. Therefore, we urge caution in comparing our density estimates with those from other areas, which may have used dissimilar methods. We also examined effects of temperature and moon phase on capture success of snowshoe hares; extremely low temperatures affected capture success but moon phase did not. Capture success can be improved by trapping snowshoe hares at temperatures above their lower critical temperature (T_lc). If abundance estimates are derived from mark-recapture studies then effects of temperature should be included when modeling capture probabilities.     

Evaluation of three methods to estimate density and detectability from roadside point counts

Roadside point counts are often used to estimate trends of bird populations. The use of aural counts of birds without adjustment for detection probability, however, can lead to incorrect population trend estimates. We compared precision of estimates of density and detectability of whistling northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) using distance sampling, independent double-observer, and removal methods from roadside surveys. Two observers independently recorded each whistling bird heard, distance from the observer, and time of first detection at 362 call-count stops in Ohio. We examined models that included covariates for year and observer effects for each method and distance from observer effects for the double-observer and removal methods using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The best model of detectability from distance sampling included observer and year effects. The best models from the removal and double-observer techniques included observer and distance effects. All 3 methods provided precise estimates of detection probability (CV = 2.4–4.4%) with a range of detectability of 0.44–0.95 for a 6-min survey. Density estimates from double-observer surveys had the lowest coefficient of variation (2005 = 3.2%, 2006 = 1.7%), but the removal method also provided precise estimates of density (2005 CV = 3.4%, 2006 CV = 4.8%), and density estimates from distance sampling were less precise (2005 CV = 9.6%, 2006 CV = 7.9%). Assumptions of distance sampling were violated in our study because probability of detecting bobwhites near the observer was <1 or the roadside survey points were not randomly distributed with respect to the birds. Distances also were not consistently recorded by individual members of observer pairs. Although double-observer surveys provided more precise estimates, we recommend using the removal method to estimate detectability and abundance of bobwhites. The removal method provided precise estimates of density and detection probability and requires half the personnel time as double-observer surveys. Furthermore, the likelihood of meeting model assumptions is higher for the removal survey than with independent double-observers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.