Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m³ of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m³/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.     

Pervasive growth reduction in Norway spruce forests following wind disturbance

Background

In recent decades the frequency and severity of natural disturbances by e.g., strong winds and insect outbreaks has increased considerably in many forest ecosystems around the world. Future climate change is expected to further intensify disturbance regimes, which makes addressing disturbances in ecosystem management a top priority. As a prerequisite a broader understanding of disturbance impacts and ecosystem responses is needed. With regard to the effects of strong winds – the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe – monitoring and management has focused on structural damage, i.e., tree mortality from uprooting and stem breakage. Effects on the functioning of trees surviving the storm (e.g., their productivity and allocation) have been rarely accounted for to date.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we show that growth reduction was significant and pervasive in a 6.79·million hectare forest landscape in southern Sweden following the storm Gudrun (January 2005). Wind-related growth reduction in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests surviving the storm exceeded 10% in the worst hit regions, and was closely related to maximum gust wind speed (R² = 0.849) and structural wind damage (R² = 0.782). At the landscape scale, wind-related growth reduction amounted to 3.0 million m³ in the three years following Gudrun. It thus exceeds secondary damage from bark beetles after Gudrun as well as the long-term average storm damage from uprooting and stem breakage in Sweden.

Conclusions/Significance

We conclude that the impact of strong winds on forest ecosystems is not limited to the immediately visible area of structural damage, and call for a broader consideration of disturbance effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in the context of forest management and climate change mitigation.     

湖南省优势树种森林资源资产负债表编制研究

选取湖南省2016年优势树种森林资源为研究对象,核算了林地、林木、生态服务、森林资源负债与净资产的价值。根据核算结果编制了森林资源资产负债表。结果表明,2016年优势树种林地总价值4938.00亿元,较上年增长12.84%,其中杉木、阔叶林和马尾松林地价值合计占比达91.86%。林地单位面积价值为54797.23元/hm~2。林木账面价值达到3385.06亿元,较上年增长2.19%。其中阔叶树、杉木和马尾松林木账面价值占总价值比重为95%;单位面积平均价值为37564.15元/hm~2。2016年生态服务价值3304.39亿元,较上年增长2.36%,单位面积生态服务价值36669元/hm~2。各生态服务价值在总价值中占比在1.81%(积累营养物质)到25.68%(涵养水源)之间。征占林地等4类森林资源损害因素共计减损森林面积和蓄积分别为1.35万hm~2和48.77万m~3。因此造成的森林资源负债金额由高到低依次为征占林地(618.26亿元)森林火灾(505.48亿元)乱砍滥伐(236.65亿元)毁林开荒(67.12亿元)。林地资产、林木资产和生态服务价值占森林资源总资产价值的比重分别为42.47%、 29.11%和28.42%。森林资源资产负债率为0.26%,资本积累率为6.50%。     

Forest biomass carbon sinks in East Asia,with special reference to the relative contributions of forest expansion and forest growth

Forests play an important role in regional and global carbon (C) cycles. With extensive afforestation and reforestation efforts over the last several decades, forests in East Asia have largely expanded, but the dynamics of their C stocks have not been fully assessed. We estimated biomass C stocks of the forests in all five East Asian countries (China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Mongolia) between the 1970s and the 2000s, using the biomass expansion factor method and forest inventory data. Forest area and biomass C density in the whole region increased from 179.78 × 10⁶ ha and 38.6 Mg C ha^?1 in the 1970s to 196.65 × 10⁶ ha and 45.5 Mg C ha^?1 in the 2000s, respectively. The C stock increased from 6.9 Pg C to 8.9 Pg C, with an averaged sequestration rate of 66.9 Tg C yr^?1. Among the five countries, China and Japan were two major contributors to the total region's forest C sink, with respective contributions of 71.1% and 32.9%. In China, the areal expansion of forest land was a larger contributor to C sinks than increased biomass density for all forests (60.0% vs. 40.0%) and for planted forests (58.1% vs. 41.9%), while the latter contributed more than the former for natural forests (87.0% vs. 13.0%). In Japan, increased biomass density dominated the C sink for all (101.5%), planted (91.1%), and natural (123.8%) forests. Forests in South Korea also acted as a C sink, contributing 9.4% of the total region's sink because of increased forest growth (98.6%). Compared to these countries, the reduction in forest land in both North Korea and Mongolia caused a C loss at an average rate of 9.0 Tg C yr^?1, equal to 13.4% of the total region's C sink. Over the last four decades, the biomass C sequestration by East Asia's forests offset 5.8% of its contemporary fossil‐fuel CO₂ emissions.     

Ice Storm Damage Greater Along the Terrestrial-Aquatic Interface in Forested Landscapes

Ice storms are an important and recurring ecological disturbance in many temperate forest ecosystems. In 1998, a severe ice storm damaged over ten million hectares of forest across northern New York State, eastern Canada, and New England impacting ecosystem processes across the landscape. This study investigated the spatial arrangement of forest damage at the terrestrial-aquatic interface, an ecological edge of importance to aquatic habitat and nutrient cycling. Vegetation indices, derived from satellite imagery and field-based data, were used to measure forest canopy damage across a 2045 km² region in northern New York State affected by the 1998 storm. We investigated the forest damage gradient in the riparian zone of 13 stream segments of varying size (92.5 km total length) and 13 lakes (37.4 km of shoreline). Large streams (-fourth and fifth order), occurring in forests that received modest ice damage (<15% disturbance coverage), exhibited significantly more damage in the riparian zone within 25 m of the water than in adjacent forest sections; F(3,12) = 7.3 P = 0.005. In similar moderately damaged forests, lake shorelines were significantly more damaged than interior forests; F(3,9) = 6.4 P = 0.013. Analysis of transitions in damage intensity revealed that canopy disturbance followed a decreasing trend (up to 3.5 times less) with movement inland from the terrestrial-aquatic interface. The observed predisposition of forest to disturbance along this ecosystem interface emphasizes the role of the physical landscape in concentrating the movement of wood from the forest canopy to locations proximate to water bodies, thus reinforcing findings that ice storms are drivers of ecological processes that are spatially concentrated.     

A predictive framework to assess spatio‐temporal variability of infestations by the European spruce bark beetle

Natural disturbances are key factors for the development of forest ecosystems. In forests of central Europe and Scandinavia, the European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most devastating biotic disturbance agent in Norway spruce Picea abies, but our understanding of the factors determining its spatio‐temporal dynamics is still quite limited. To quantify the drivers of bark beetle dynamics, we analyzed a survey dataset with annual resolution that covers 17 yr and 469 forest districts (10 860 km² of forest area) all over Switzerland. We used Poisson log‐normal models in a Bayesian framework to analyze the spatio‐temporal dynamics of bark beetle infestation spots at the forest district level. Bark beetle infestations increased with increasing heat sum (> 8.3°C), volume of standing Norway spruce stock, and the number of infestation spots of the previous year. Precipitation tended to slightly affect the risk of bark beetle infestations. Two major storm events further increased the spatio‐temporal variability of bark beetle infestations. Spruce abundance, storm damage and temperature are known to be important factors influencing the population dynamics of the European spruce bark beetle. Our study is the first to quantify the combined effects of spruce abundance and heat sum, whereby the heat sum turned out to be the most important and consistent predictor. Because our study area encompasses large ecological and climatological gradients, our model is likely to be applicable to Norway spruce forests in other regions of central Europe and Scandinavia.     

Carbon pool densities and a first estimate of the total carbon pool in the Mongolian forest‐steppe

The boreal forest biome represents one of the most important terrestrial carbon stores, which gave reason to intensive research on carbon stock densities. However, such an analysis does not yet exist for the southernmost Eurosiberian boreal forests in Inner Asia. Most of these forests are located in the Mongolian forest‐steppe, which is largely dominated by Larix sibirica. We quantified the carbon stock density and total carbon pool of Mongolia's boreal forests and adjacent grasslands and draw conclusions on possible future change. Mean aboveground carbon stock density in the interior of L. sibirica forests was 66 Mg C ha^?1, which is in the upper range of values reported from boreal forests and probably due to the comparably long growing season. The density of soil organic carbon (SOC, 108 Mg C ha^?1) and total belowground carbon density (149 Mg C ha^?1) are at the lower end of the range known from boreal forests, which might be the result of higher soil temperatures and a thinner permafrost layer than in the central and northern boreal forest belt. Land use effects are especially relevant at forest edges, where mean carbon stock density was 188 Mg C ha^?1, compared with 215 Mg C ha^?1 in the forest interior. Carbon stock density in grasslands was 144 Mg C ha^?1. Analysis of satellite imagery of the highly fragmented forest area in the forest‐steppe zone showed that Mongolia's total boreal forest area is currently 73 818 km², and 22% of this area refers to forest edges (defined as the first 30 m from the edge). The total forest carbon pool of Mongolia was estimated at ~ 1.5?1.7 Pg C, a value which is likely to decrease in future with increasing deforestation and fire frequency, and global warming.     

Tornado damage and initial recovery in three adjacent,lowland temperate forests in Missouri

Abstract. We surveyed tornado damage 14 months after disturbance in three adjacent forest sites in southeastern Missouri, USA: upland, an occasionally-flooded lowland and a frequently flooded swamp. We analysed three 0.09-ha plots in the swamp, and three 0.04-ha plots in the other sites and recorded the herbaceous-layer in five 1-m² quadrats per plot. Overall, 30 % of the individuals and 64 % of the basal area of these sites was blown down. However, mortality was less than structural damage: 20 % of the trees were dead 14 months post-disturbance, an intermediate level of mortality relative to other wind disturbances. Damage varied widely among species, sites and tree sizes, but large trees of all species were most likely to be damaged and least likely to resprout. While damage was greatest in the wettest site, we attribute the increase to larger tree sizes and lower density there, rather than to inherent rooting instability. This study suggests that different forest composition and structure may be sufficient to cause differential damage, without topographic effects. Herbaceous-layer response was more rapid than in a previously reported tornado windthrow in Pennsylvania, and was dominated by fast-growing, shade-intolerant forbs.     

基于长时间序列Landsat影像的南方人工林干扰与恢复制图分析

基于1986年到2011年的Landsat影像,以南方人工林分布区域广东省佛冈县为例,运用Landsat生态系统自适应处理系统(LEDAPS)预处理生成标准的地面反射率数据构建Landsat时间序列堆栈(LTSS)用于Land Trendr算法监测人工林森林干扰与恢复的长时间序列变化,分析了连续24a森林干扰的年份变化、干扰量以及干扰持续的时间,验证了算法识别干扰的精度,并探讨了人工林干扰的驱动力。结果表明佛冈县的森林干扰较为剧烈,一般都在1000 hm~2。而1987、2002、2004、2005、2006、2007和2009年的干扰面积均超过2000 hm~2,其中1987、2007年两年的干扰面积达到6000 hm~2以上。相比森林干扰的变化,佛冈县的森林恢复面积随时间的变化相对平稳。通过对佛冈县森林干扰和恢复面积的趋势分析,发现20世纪80年代末到90年代森林干扰和恢复的面积基本少于2000年以后的变化面积,变化趋势比2000年以后的显得平缓;从2000年开始,森林干扰面积逐渐上升,总体面积变化趋势高于森林的恢复,但森林的恢复面积仍有所提升。其中,佛冈县的森林干扰持续1a时间的面积比例约38%,持续2a时间约28%,持续3a时间约25%,持续4a时间约7%,主要为短期急剧的干扰事件。另外,持续时间为4a以上的森林干扰和恢复的面积在佛冈县不超过100hm~2。2000年之前持续干扰和急剧干扰面积相当,变化比较平缓;到2000年之后,急剧干扰的面积远大于持续干扰,最高约达2800 hm~2,但两者都呈现波动上升的变化趋势。在选取的两个4km~2的样方中,基于影像光谱识别以及通过比对干扰资料的可视化验证方法表明算法结果与真实地表的解译信息较吻合,误差约为0.1km~2。利用长时间序列遥感影像进行森林干扰的自动化监测十分必要,导出的定性、定位与定量信息,一方面为可持续的森林经营奠定基础,另一方面为评价森林生产力与森林碳储量提供有效的数据支撑。     

Stemwood volume increment changes in European forests due to climate change—a simulation study with the EFISCEN model

This paper presents the results of a modelling study of future net annual increment changes in stemwood of European forests owing to climate change. Seven process‐based growth models were applied to 14 representative forest sites across Europe under one climate change scenario. The chosen scenario was the HadCM2 run, based on emission scenario IS92a, and resulted in an increase in mean temperature of 2.5 °C between 1990 and 2050, and an increase in annual precipitation of 5–15%. The information from those runs was incorporated in a transient way in a large‐scale forest resource scenario model, EFISCEN (European forest information scenario). European scale forest resource projections were made for 28 countries covering 131.7 million ha of forest under two management scenarios for the period until 2050. The results showed that net annual increments in stemwood of European forests under climate change will further increase with an additional 0.9 m³ ha^?1 y^?1 in 2030 compared to the ongoing increase under a current climate scenario, i.e. an extra 18% increase. After 2030 the extra increment increase is reduced to 0.79 m³ ha^?1 y^?1 in 2050. Under climate change, absolute net annual increments will increase from the present 4.95, on average for Europe, to 5.93 m³ ha^?1 y^?1 in 2025. After 2025, increments in all scenarios start to decline owing to ageing of the forest and the high growing stocks being reached. The results of the present study are surrounded by large uncertainties. These uncertainties are caused by unknown emissions in the future, unknown extent of climate change, uncertainty in process‐based models, uncertainty in inventory data, and uncertainty in inventory projection. Although the results are thus not conclusive, climate change may lead to extra felling opportunities in European forests of 87 million m³y^?1. Because Europe's forests are intensively managed already, management may adapt to climate change relatively easily. However, this study also indicates that climate change may lead to a faster build‐up of growing stocks. That may create a less stable forest resource in terms of risks to storm damage.     

新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊土地覆被变化及驱动力分析

针对年际间的土地覆被变化的空间分异特性及驱动机理解析问题,采用Python和R语言构建了土地覆盖变化的时空动态概率模型和驱动力综合分析模型,实现了21世纪以来"新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊(NECBEC)"土地覆盖时空动态变化特征及驱动机理的定量分析。研究结果表明,在2001—2017年间,NECBEC的土地覆盖变化总体呈现出三增(草地、耕地和建设用地分别增加11457万hm~2、841万hm~2和396万hm~2)和三减(林地、水域和湿地、和未利用地分别减少7409万hm~2、4659万hm~2和626万hm~2)趋势。其中,未利用地和林地主要转换为草地,而草地则主要转为林地和耕地。建设用地年际增加幅度最大,其新增面积中耕地贡献达到50%。另外,自2013年"一带一路"倡议启动以来,NECBEC区域的各种土地覆盖类型之间的相互转换幅度呈现明显增加趋势,而NECBEC沿线国家之间的社会经济发展综合水平集聚性总体上呈减弱趋势,其中综合得分高高聚集区和低低聚集区分别集中在西欧和中亚北部。NECBEC区域的社会经济发展对耕地和建设用地的时空差异性尤为显著。土地覆盖类型在面积变化量和变化速率上,均具有明显的时空分异性。不同的经济发展综合水平对LUCC的类型演替、格局变化和驱动效应不同。     

An overview of the progress and challenges of peatland restoration in Western Europe

Peatlands are the most efficient terrestrial carbon store on Earth, and deliver multiple other ecosystem services including climate regulation, water purification, preservation of ecological and archaeological records, etc. Disturbed and degraded peatlands do not provide the same ecological services and thus bear a significant cost to society. Because this cost may be alleviated by appropriate restoration measures, money is being invested in peatland restoration projects around the world. Here, we review over 25 years of restoration in Western Europe. First, we provide an overview of techniques used in different contexts and evaluate the status of the evidence base for restoration outcomes. Between 1993 and 2015, the EU‐LIFE nature programme alone invested 167.6M € in 80 projects, which aim to restore over 913 km² of peatland habitats in Western European countries, mostly in protected sites part of the Natura 2000 EU network. This represents less than 2% of the total remaining area of peatlands in these countries, most of which have been impacted to some degree by anthropogenic disturbances. Potential for restoration should be considered in nondesignated sites. We reviewed a number of case studies covering a range of restoration approaches used in different parts of Western Europe. We found that published evidence of restoration progress was limited to specific sites/areas, and in many cases lacked baseline measurements and clear goals, that is, measurable target or contemporary reference(s). We discuss barriers and opportunities to turn the tide for peatland restoration in Western Europe and promote the establishment of robust, standardized monitoring schemes.     

Damage to living trees contributes to almost half of the biomass losses in tropical forests

Accurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36–5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹; CI 5.57–12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage-related AGB losses rather than by mortality-related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand-level AGB stocks by 4% (1%–17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%–57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage-related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%–80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.     

树种水平的大兴安岭地上生物量变化特征及其与气候和干扰的关系

树种水平地上生物量(每个树种的地上生物量)是衡量森林生态系统结构功能的重要指标。为揭示树种水平森林地上生物量变化机制及其与气候变化和干扰的关系,运用KNN (k-nearest neighbor distance)方法将森林调查数据和MODIS数据相结合,估算了黑龙江大兴安岭2000、2010和2015年树种水平的森林地上生物量,在此基础上运用典型对应分析和随机森林方法,分析了研究区树种水平地上生物量变化特征及其与气候和干扰因素的关系。研究结果表明:2000—2015年期间,研究区总的森林地上生物量增加了8.9%(0.41×10~8 t),其中2010—2015年期间地上生物量的增加速度要明显高于2000—2010年;地上生物量增加最多的树种为白桦(Betula platyphylla Suk.),与2000年相比生物量增加了0.40×10~8 t,其次为樟子松(Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica Litv.)、山杨(Populus davidiana Dode)和蒙古栎(Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb.),落叶松(Larix gmelinii(Rupr.) Kuzen)地上生物量下降了0.08×10~8 t,柳树(Chosenia arbutifolia(Pall.) A. Skv.)和云杉(Picea koraiensis Nakai)基本上没有变化;林火、采伐和造林等森林干扰均对树种水平地上生物量影响显著,林火对树种水平地上生物量的影响要高于造林和采伐;气候要素显示出了比干扰要素更为重要的作用,多年平均温度和降水解释了最多的树种水平地上生物量变异。年均温度与阔叶树种的生物量以及林火干扰有显著的正相关性,与总的森林地上生物量呈现出显著的负相关,与落叶松和白桦表现出微弱的负相关,预示着气候变暖将影响该区域的树种组成并降低该区域的森林生产力。     

Impact of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on biodiversity and giant panda habitat in Wolong Nature Reserve,China

Natural disasters such as earthquakes have profound effects on the earth’s biodiversity. However, studies on immediate earthquake impacts are rarely conducted at fine scales due to logistical constraints. We conducted the first post-earthquake field survey in Wolong Nature Reserve, Wenchuan, China, less than 1 year after it was hit by a magnitude 8.0 earthquake in 2008. Since Wolong harbors approximately 10% of the endangered wild giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population, the impact of the earthquake on the giant panda and its habitat is of particular concern. We established 15 transects in three focus areas within the Reserve where we classified occurrences of earthquake damage according to vegetation and geophysical characteristics. In the 11.2 km² area sampled, we recorded 156 occurrences of earthquake damage consisting of landslides and mudflows, which comprised a total area of 0.88 km². Of all earthquake damage occurrences sampled, only 36% of occurences (73% of surface area) corresponded to damaged areas previously detected through broad-scale remote sensing. The remaining damaged areas mainly consisted of occurrences too small to be detected without field observation. Although there were significant losses to tree and shrub species diversity and richness in earthquake-damaged areas, remnant vegetation was found in the majority (80%) of damaged areas, suggesting the potential for forest recovery. Most earthquake-damaged areas were too steep to be classified as suitable giant panda habitat (79%). In addition, a sizable number of signs of giant panda (67) and other wildlife (148) were observed near the earthquake-damaged areas, and there appeared to be avoidance of earthquake damage only at short-range distances. This study has implications for understanding the impact of natural disasters on biodiversity and highlights the importance of fine scale on-the-ground assessments of disaster impacts on wildlife and their habitats.     

Biomass change in an Atlantic tropical moist forest: the ENSO effect in permanent sample plots over a 22-year period

There are a number of controversies surrounding both biomass estimation and carbon balance in tropical forests. Here we use long-term (from 1978 through 2000) data from five 0.5-ha permanent sample plots (PSPs) within a large tract of relatively undisturbed Atlantic moist forest in southeastern Brazil to quantify the biomass increment (M_I), and change in total stand biomass (M_stand), from mortality, recruitment, and growth data for trees 10 cm diameter at breast height (DBH). Despite receiving an average of only 1,200 mm annual precipitation, total forests biomass (334.5±11.3 Mg ha^–1) was comparable to moist tropical forests with much greater precipitation. Over this relatively long-term study, forest biomass experienced rapid declines associated with El Niño events, followed by gradual biomass accumulation. Over short time intervals that overlook extreme events, these dynamics can be misinterpreted as net biomass accumulation. However for the 22 years of this study, there was a small reduction in forest biomass, averaging –1.2 Mg ha^–1 year^–1 (±3.1). Strong climatic disturbances can severely reduce forest biomass, and if the frequency and intensity of these events increases beyond historical averages, these changing disturbance regimes have the capacity to significantly reduce forest biomass, resulting in a net source of carbon to the atmosphere.     

Biomass carbon stocks in China’s forests between 2000 and 2050: A prediction based on forest biomass-age relationships

China’s forests are characterized by young forest age, low carbon density and a large area of planted forests, and thus have high potential to act as carbon sinks in the future. Using China’s national forest inventory data during 1994–1998 and 1999–2003, and direct field measurements, we investigated the relationships between forest biomass density and forest age for 36 major forest types. Statistical approaches and the predicted future forest area from the national forestry development plan were applied to estimate the potential of forest biomass carbon storage in China during 2000–2050. Under an assumption of continuous natural forest growth, China’s existing forest biomass carbon (C) stock would increase from 5.86 Pg C (1 Pg=10¹⁵ g) in 1999–2003 to 10.23 Pg C in 2050, resulting in a total increase of 4.37 Pg C. Newly planted forests through afforestation and reforestation will sequestrate an additional 2.86 Pg C in biomass. Overall, China’s forests will potentially act as a carbon sink for 7.23 Pg C during the period 2000–2050, with an average carbon sink of 0.14 Pg C yr⁻¹. This suggests that China’s forests will be a significant carbon sink in the next 50 years.     

Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe

Natural disturbances like wildfire, windthrow and insect outbreaks are critical drivers of composition, structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. They are strongly climate‐sensitive, and are thus likely to be distinctly affected by climatic changes. Observations across Europe show that in recent decades, forest disturbance regimes have intensified markedly, resulting in a strong increase in damage from wind, bark beetles and wildfires. Climate change is frequently hypothesized as the main driving force behind this intensification, but changes in forest structure and composition associated with management activities such as promoting conifers and increasing standing timber volume (i.e. ‘forest change’) also strongly influence susceptibility to disturbances. Here, we show that from 1958 to 2001, forest change contributed in the same order of magnitude as climate change to the increase in disturbance damage in Europe's forests. Climate change was the main driver of the increase in area burnt, while changes in forest extent, structure and composition particularly affected the variation in wind and bark beetle damage. For all three disturbance agents, damage was most severe when conducive weather conditions and increased forest susceptibility coincided. We conclude that a continuing trend towards more disturbance‐prone conditions is likely for large parts of Europe's forests, and can have strong detrimental effects on forest carbon storage and other ecosystem services. Understanding the interacting drivers of natural disturbance regimes is thus a prerequisite for climate change mitigation and adaptation in forest ecosystem management.     

长白山寒温带风灾区植被受损与灾后变化程度及其影响因素

1986年台风袭击了长白山,在西、南坡的寒温带针叶林和岳桦林带形成了大量林窗.为了探究在强风干扰下寒温带森林植被受损和变化特征,揭示植被受损与灾后变化规律及其影响因子,2017年在长白山海拔1600～1800 m设立研究区.利用遥感资料,对研究区依据植被破坏程度和灾后变化程度进行植被差异分区,并布设了40个样方进行植被调查.结果表明: 按森林结构的受损程度可将长白山寒温带风灾区分为3个等级,轻度破坏、中度破坏和重度破坏,其中,中度破坏区的面积最大,其次是轻度破坏区、重度破坏区.乔木受损差异显著,轻度破坏区、中度破坏区和重度破坏区乔木优势种的数量分别减少20%、50%和85%,岳桦的抗风性大于鱼鳞云杉,大径级岳桦的抗风性大于小径级的岳桦.植被受损程度与坡度的相关性最强,随着坡度的增加,受风灾破坏程度减小.1987—2017年间,长白山寒温带风灾区的植被发生明显变化,根据变化的程度可将研究区分为3个等级:变化快、变化中等和变化慢,其中,变化中等的区域面积最大,其次是变化慢、变化快的区域;植被变化程度与海拔的相关性最强,随着海拔的增加,植被变化变慢.乔木的恢复较慢,鱼鳞云杉略好于岳桦;植被变化主要表现在灌木层和草本层,变化快的区域灌木层发育好于草本层;变化中等的区域草本层发育好于灌木层;变化慢的区域灌木层发育差异大,但草本层总体上表现为低矮稠密.     

The carbon costs of mitigating high‐severity wildfire in southwestern ponderosa pine

Forests provide climate change mitigation benefit by sequestering carbon during growth. This benefit can be reversed by both human and natural disturbances. While some disturbances such as hurricanes are beyond the control of humans, extensive research in dry, temperate forests indicates that wildfire severity can be altered as a function of forest fuels and stand structural manipulations. The purpose of this study was to determine if current aboveground forest carbon stocks in fire‐excluded southwestern ponderosa pine forest are higher than prefire exclusion carbon stocks reconstructed from 1876, quantify the carbon costs of thinning treatments to reduce high‐severity wildfire risk, and compare posttreatment (thinning and burning) carbon stocks with reconstructed 1876 carbon stocks. Our findings indicate that prefire exclusion forest carbon stocks ranged from 27.9 to 36.6 Mg C ha^?1 and that the current fire‐excluded forest structure contained on average 2.3 times as much live tree carbon. Posttreatment carbon stocks ranged from 37.9 to 50.6 Mg C ha^?1 as a function of thinning intensity. Previous work found that these thinning and burning treatments substantially increased the 6.1 m wind speed necessary for fire to move from the forest floor to the canopy (torching index) and the wind speed necessary for sustained crown fire (crowning index), thereby reducing potential fire severity. Given the projected drying and increase in fire prevalence in this region as a function of changing climatic conditions, the higher carbon stock in the fire‐excluded forest is unlikely to be sustainable. Treatments to reduce high‐severity wildfire risk require trade‐offs between carbon stock size and carbon stock stability.