Long-term evolution of an ecosystem with spontaneous periodicity of mass extinctions

Twenty years ago, after analysing palaeontological data, Raup and Sepkoski suggested that mass extinctions on Earth appear cyclically in time with a period of approximately 26 million years (My). To explain the 26 My period, a number of proposals were made involving, e.g., astronomical effects, increased volcanic activity, or the Earth's magnetic field reversal, none of which, however, has been confirmed. Here we study a spatially extended discrete model of an ecosystem and show that the periodicity of mass extinctions might be a natural feature of the ecosystem's dynamics and not the result of a periodic external perturbation. In our model, periodic changes of the diversity of an ecosystem and some of its other characteristics are induced by the coevolution of species. In agreement with some palaeontological data, our results show that the longevity of a species depends on the evolutionary stage at which the species is created. Possible further tests of our model are also discussed.     

The best sections method of studying mass extinctions

Phanerozoic mass extinctions have been studied primarily by analysing global diversity patterns compiled from the published literature. However, such compilations are beset by problems of incorrect correlation, imprecise age assignments and changing taxonomy. An alternative approach is to analyse mass extinctions by the ‘best sections’ method. This method identifies abundantly fossiliferous, well‐studied, stratigraphically dense and temporally extensive fossil records in strata that contain geochemical and other relevant non‐palaeontological data from a single depositional basin or geographically restricted outcrop area as the ‘best sections’ by which to analyse extinctions. A strength of the best sections method is that it allows the extinctions identified to be compared directly to changes in facies and other factors recorded in the best section. And, the hypothesis of a widespread extinction based on an extinction seen in a best section can be tested by its presence or absence in temporally equivalent sections. What we need are more field‐based studies of the best sections that encompass mass extinctions (real and hypothetical) and less of a reliance on literature‐based diversity compilations to produce a more reliable and comprehensive understanding of the history of extinctions.     

Late Holocene extinction of Puerto Rican native land mammals

West Indian land mammals have suffered the most severe extinctions of any Holocene mammal faunas. However, 'last-occurrence' dates based on radiometric or robust stratigraphic data remain unavailable for most West Indian species, making it impossible to identify factors responsible for these extinctions. Here, we present new radiometric dates from archaeological and palaeontological sites on Puerto Rico, the only Greater Antillean island to have lost all native land mammals. Although it has been suggested that these species died out earlier than other West Indian mammals, we demonstrate that Puerto Rican mammal last-occurrence dates are in close agreement with those from other Antillean islands, as several species in fact persisted for millennia following Amerindian arrival. Echimyid rodents and nesophontid 'island-shrews' were still present on Puerto Rico approximately 1000 years BP, and probably became extinct following European arrival. The large (13kg) heptaxodontid rodent Elasmodontomys obliquus also appears to have survived for over 2000 years after Amerindian colonization, suggesting that at least some large West Indian mammals became extinct in protracted pre-European 'sitzkrieg'-style events rather than 'blitzkrieg'-style overkill.     

Species loss and the structure and functioning of multitrophic aquatic systems

Experiments and theory in single trophic level systems dominate biodiversity and ecosystem functioning research and recent debates. All natural ecosystems contain communities with multiple trophic levels, however, and this can have important effects on ecosystem structure and functioning. Furthermore, many experiments compare assembled communities, rather than examining loss of species directly. We identify three questions around which to organise an investigation of how species loss affects the structure and functioning of multitrophic systems. 1) What is the distribution of species richness among trophic levels; 2) from which trophic levels are species most often lost; and 3) does loss of species from different trophic levels influence ecosystem functioning differently? Our analyses show that: 1) Relatively few high‐quality data are available concerning the distribution of species richness among trophic levels. A new data‐set provides evidence of a decrease in species richness as trophic height increases. 2) Multiple lines of evidence indicate that species are lost from higher trophic levels more frequently than lower trophic levels. 3) A theoretical model suggests that both the structure of food webs (occurrence of omnivory and the distribution of species richness among trophic levels) and the trophic level from which species are lost determines the impact of species loss on ecosystem functioning, which can even vary in the sign of the effect. These results indicate that, at least for aquatic systems, models of single trophic level ecosystems are insufficient for understanding the functional consequences of extinctions. Knowledge is required of food web structure, which species are likely to be lost, and also whether cascading extinctions will occur.     

Cascading extinctions, functional complementarity, and selection in two-trophic-level model communities: A trait-based mechanistic approach

The influence of diversity on ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services is now well established. Yet predictive mechanistic models that link species traits and community-level processes remain scarce, particularly for multitrophic systems. Here we revisit MacArthur's classical consumer resource model and develop a trait-based approach to predict the effects of consumer diversity on cascading extinctions and aggregated ecosystem processes in a two-trophic-level system. We show that functionally redundant efficient consumers generate top-down cascading extinctions. This counterintuitive result reveals the limits of the functional redundancy concept to predict the consequences of species deletion. Our model also predicts that the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship is different for different ecosystem processes and depends on the range of variation of consumer traits in the regional species pool, which determines the sign of selection effects. Lastly, competition among resources and consumer generalism both weaken complementarity effects, which suggests that selection effects may prevail at higher trophic levels. Our work emphasizes the potential of trait-based approaches for transforming biodiversity and ecosystem functioning research into a more predictive science.     

Extinction,survivorship and evolution of planktic foraminifera across the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary at El Kef,Tunisia

An expanded sediment record at El Kef shows that the K/T boundary extinctions of planktic foraminifera extend over an interval from 25 cm below the geochemical boundary (Ir anomaly) to 7 cm above. Species extinctions appear sequential with complex, large, ornate forms disappearing first and smaller, less ornate, forms surviving longer. The 14 species extinctions below the boundary appear unrelated to an impact event.Cretaceous species survivorship is greater than previously assumed. About 10 species survive (22%) into Subzone P1a (Globigerina eugubina). All Cretaceous survivors are small primitive forms which are generally smaller than their ancestors in Cretaceous sediments.Species evolution after the K/T event occurs in two pulses. The first new Paleocene species evolve in the basal black clay (Zone PO) immediately after the major Cretaceous extinctions. Evolving species are small and primitive similar to Cretaceous survivors. The second pulse in species evolution occurs in the lower part of Subzone P1b with the appearance of larger more diverse species. The first major increase in carbonate sedimentation and productivity occurs at this time and signals the recoveyr of the ecosystem nearly 300,000 years after the K/T event. The species extinctions prior to the generally assumed impact event implied by the Ir anomaly, and the long recovery period of the ecosystem thereafter cannot be explained by a single impact, but suggest that multiple causes may be responsible such as climatic changes, volcanism, a sea level drop, production of warm saline bottom water and the chemical consequences associated with increased salinity.     

Biodiversity lessens the risk of cascading extinction in model food webs

Due to the complex interactions between species in food webs, the extinction of one species could lead to a cascade of further extinctions and hence cause dramatic changes in species composition and ecosystem processes. We found that the risk of additional species extinction, following the loss of one species in model food webs, decreases with the number of species per functional group. For a given number of species per functional group, the risk of further extinctions is highest when an autotroph is removed and lowest when a top predator is removed. In addition, stability decreases when the distribution of interaction strengths in the webs is changed from equal to skew (few strong and many weak links). We also found that omnivory appears to stabilize model food webs. Our results indicate that high biodiversity may serve as an insurance against radical ecosystem changes.     

Extinction rates of the Meade Basin rodents: application to current biodiversity losses

Extinction rates for terrestrial rodent species from palaeontological sites in the Meade Basin of southwestern Kansas and an archaeological site in New Mexico are compared with extinction rates for modern rodents from locations affected by anthropogenic activities. Background extinction rates are defined as global extinctions occurring over proscribed intervals in the absence of significant environmental perturbations. Background rates for the Meade Basin are estimated at 0–~1.0 E/MSY (extinctions per million species years). Elevated rates from 1.4 to 6.25 E/MSY are associated with volcanic events and Late Pleistocene environmental change. These rates are considerably less than those for rodent extinction rates promoted by human activities during the Holocene, the latter ranging from 42.3 to 50,000 E/MSY.     

Cascading extinctions and ecosystem functioning: contrasting effects of diversity depending on food web structure

The consequences of species loss on cascading extinctions in food webs have been the focus of several recent theoretical studies, with differing results. Changes in ecosystem properties consecutive to cascading extinctions have received far less attention even though such dramatic events might strongly alter ecosystem functioning. Here we use various food web models to investigate the effects of species loss and diversity on both secondary extinctions and their associated changes in ecosystem properties. Our analysis shows that diversity has contrasting effects depending on the presence of self-limiting terms at consumer levels and, to a lower extent, on connectance and interspecific competition. Ecosystems that lose a high proportion of species through cascading extinctions exhibit the most important changes in ecosystem properties. Linking studies on cascading extinctions in food webs with studies that investigate the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning appears crucial for a better understanding of the consequences of species extinctions.     

Biogeography of Puerto Rican ants: a non-equilibrium case?

Ants were studied on Puerto Rico and 44 islands surrounding Puerto Rico. Habitat diversity was the best predictor of the number of species per island and the distributions of species followed a nested subset pattern. The number of extinctions per island was low, approximately 1–2 extinctions per island in a period of 18 years, and the rates of colonization seem to be greater than the extinction rates. Ant dynamics on these islands do not seem to support the basic MacArthur and Wilson model of island biogeography. The MacArthur and Wilson equilibrium is based on the notion that species are interchangeable, but some extinctions and colonizations can change the composition and number of species drastically.     

The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.     

Extinction and the loss of functional diversity

Although it is widely thought to influence ecosystem processes, there is little consensus on an appropriate measure of functional diversity. The two major perspectives, to date, are to assume that every species is functionally unique, or to assume that some species are functionally identical, such that functional groups exist. Using a continuous measure of functional diversity (FD) derived from the quantitative functional traits of species, we show that the loss of functional diversity from six natural assemblages was rapid compared with rates of loss from comparable simulated assemblages. Loss of FD occurred faster than loss of functional-group diversity in four of the six natural assemblages. Patterns of functional-group diversity loss depended on the number of functional groups and the number of species in an assemblage. Extinctions that occurred first for species with particular traits (e.g. low leaf nitrogen concentration, deep roots and large body size) caused greater loss of FD than expected by chance in four of the six natural assemblages. In two real assemblages, these trait-dependent extinctions had more severe effects on FD than our simulated worst-case extinction scenario. These data suggest that conserving a large proportion of the functional traits of species requires conserving a large proportion of all species.     

The complex effects of mass extinctions on morphological disparity

Studies of biodiversity through deep time have been a staple for biologists and paleontologists for over 60 years. Investigations of species richness (diversity) revealed that at least five mass extinctions punctuated the last half billion years, each seeing the rapid demise of a large proportion of contemporary taxa. In contrast to diversity, the response of morphological diversity (disparity) to mass extinctions is unclear. Generally, diversity and disparity are decoupled, such that diversity may decline as morphological disparity increases, and vice versa. Here, we develop simulations to model disparity changes across mass extinctions using continuous traits and birth-death trees. We find no simple null for disparity change following a mass extinction but do observe general patterns. The range of trait values decreases following either random or trait-selective mass extinctions, whereas variance and the density of morphospace occupation only decline following trait-selective events. General trends may differentiate random and trait-selective mass extinctions, but methods struggle to identify trait selectivity. Long-term effects of mass extinction trait selectivity change support for phylogenetic comparative methods away from the simulated Brownian motion toward Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Early Burst models. We find that morphological change over mass extinction is best studied by quantifying multiple aspects of morphospace occupation.     

Global versus local extinction in a network model of plant–pollinator communities

The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of additional extinctions; the complex interactions that comprise ecological communities make the dynamics and impacts of such a cascade challenging to predict. Previous studies have typically considered global extinctions, where a species cannot re-enter a community once it is lost. However, in some cases a species only becomes locally extinct, and may be able to reinvade from surrounding communities. Here, we use a dynamic, Boolean network model of plant–pollinator community assembly to analyze the differences between global and local extinction events in mutualistic communities. As expected, we find that compared to global extinctions, communities respond to local extinctions with lower biodiversity loss, and less variation in topological network properties. We demonstrate that in the face of global extinctions, larger communities suffer greater biodiversity loss than smaller communities when similar proportions of species are lost. Conversely, smaller communities suffer greater loss in the face of local extinctions. We show that targeting species with the most interacting partners causes more biodiversity loss than random extinctions in the case of global, but not local, extinctions. These results extend our understanding of how mutualistic communities respond to species loss, with implications for community management and conservation efforts.     

The evolutionary significance of mass extinctions

Local extinctions of populations, species or groups of species in a particular area are commonly observed by biologists. There are also historical records of the total extinction of single species such as the Dodo, the Great Auk and the Tasmanian Wolf. Mass extinctions are on a much larger scale, and their study is based on the fossil record. The aims of this review are to explore the nature of mass extinctions and their evolutionary significance. The key questions are: what is mass extinction, what are the causes of mass extinctions, do mass extinctions follow a regular pattern, and how do mass extinctions affect our understanding of evolutionary processes?     

Improving nature conservancy strategies by ecological network theory

Over several decades nature conservancy research has gathered increasing evidence on the processes that drive species extinctions. Nevertheless, the world's ecosystems are currently exposed to a fast wave of species extinctions, and nature conservancy research has to face the challenge of predicting the consequences of extinctions. In the context of complex food webs that compose natural ecosystems, these primary extinctions affect the biomasses and growth rates of all co-existing species, which can eventually lead to secondary extinctions and extinction cascades of multiple species. Network theory provides a tool for predicting the consequences of extinctions for other species and ecosystem functions. In this sense, ecological network theory could become the next cornerstone of nature conservancy research.     

New dasycladalean algae from the Middle Norian (Upper Triassic) of northern Italy (Mt. Pramaggiore, Carnic Prealps)

In the Eastern Southern Alps of northern Italy (Carnic Prealps, Friuli region), the shallow-water carbonate platform deposits of the Dolomia Principale Fm. (Norian–Rhaetian, Upper Triassic) show best-preserved platform to basin facies transition. The palaeontological study of an algal-rich level recovered from the platform margin facies (Mt. Pramaggiore) has displayed a very interesting association of Dasycladales. Two new genera (Bystrickyella and Elliottporella) and four new species (Bystrickyella ottii, Elliottporella morelloae, Palaeodasycladus lorigae and Holosporella conradii) have been described. These new data suggest that the Norian represents a period of turnover in the evolutionary history of the green algae community. This stage, placed between two extinctions, end-Ladinian and end-Norian, is here interpreted as a re-organization period of the evolutionary schemes of Dasycladales. The new lineages originated in the Norian developed further and characterized the Early Jurassic scenery. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

How much do we know about the current extinction rate?

Since about J600, 486 animal species have been recorded extinct. This represents about 0.04% of all animal species so far described. In the same period, 600 plant species are known to have disappeared, about 0.25% of the total. These figures are much smaller than those of the Permian/ Triassic and Cretaceous/Tertiary mass extinctions. One might therefore conclude that at present life on earth is at comparatively little risk of extinction. However, there is a growing body of data to show that the converse is true.     

Species assembly in model ecosystems, I: Analysis of the population model and the invasion dynamics

Recently we have introduced a simplified model of ecosystem assembly (Capitán et al., 2009) for which we are able to map out all assembly pathways generated by external invasions in an exact manner. In this paper we provide a deeper analysis of the model, obtaining analytical results and introducing some approximations which allow us to reconstruct the results of our previous work. In particular, we show that the population dynamics equations of a very general class of trophic-level structured food-web have an unique interior equilibrium point which is globally stable. We show analytically that communities found as end states of the assembly process are pyramidal and we find that the equilibrium abundance of any species at any trophic level is approximately inversely proportional to the number of species in that level. We also find that the per capita growth rate of a top predator invading a resident community is key to understand the appearance of complex end states reported in our previous work. The sign of these rates allows us to separate regions in the space of parameters where the end state is either a single community or a complex set containing more than one community. We have also built up analytical approximations to the time evolution of species abundances that allow us to determine, with high accuracy, the sequence of extinctions that an invasion may cause. Finally we apply this analysis to obtain the communities in the end states. To test the accuracy of the transition probability matrix generated by this analytical procedure for the end states, we have compared averages over those sets with those obtained from the graph derived by numerical integration of the Lotka-Volterra equations. The agreement is excellent.     

Stepwise mass extinctions and impact events: Late Eocene to early Oligocene

Species ranges and relative abundances of dominant planktonic foraminifers of eight late Eocene to early Oligocene deep-sea sections are discussed to determine the nature and magnitude of extinctions and to investigate a possible cause-effect relationship between impact events and mass extinctions.Late Eocene extinctions are neither catastrophic nor mass extinctions, but occur stepwise over a period of about 1–2 million years. Four stepwise extinctions are identified at the middle/late Eocene boundary, the upperGlobigerapsis semiinvoluta zone, theG. semiinvoluta/Globorotalia cerroazulensis zone boundary and at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. Each stepwise extinction event represents a time of accelerated faunal turnover characterized by generally less than 15% species extinct and in itself is not a significant extinction event. Relative species abundance changes at each stepwise extinction event, however, indicate a turnover involving > 60% of the population implying major environmental changes.There microtektite horizons are present in late Eocene sediments; one in the upperG. semiinvoluta zone (38.2 Ma) and two closely spaced layers only a few thousand years apart in the lower part of theGloborotalia cerroazulensis zone (37.2 Ma). Each of the three impact events appears to have had some effect on microplankton communities. However, the overriding factor that led to the stepwise mass extinctions may have been the result of multiple causes as there is no evidence of impacts associated with the step preceding, or the step following the deposition of the presently known microtektite horizons.