The effect of a large Danish offshore wind farm on harbor and gray seal haul-out behavior

This study investigates the effects of the construction and operation of a large Danish offshore wind farm on harbor and gray seal haul-out behavior within a nearby (4 km) seal sanctuary. Time-lapse photography, visual monitoring, and aerial surveys were used to monitor the number of seals on land in daylight hours. Seals were monitored during two preconstruction periods (19 June–31 August 2001 and April–August 2002), a construction period of the wind farm (August 2002–December 2003), and a period of operation of the wind farm (December 2003–December 2004). Monthly aerial surveys were conducted to estimate the proportion of seals in the sanctuary relative to neighboring haul-out sites. From preconstruction to construction and through the first year of operation the number of harbor seals in the sanctuary increased at the same rate as the number of seals at the neighboring haul-out sites. No long-term effects on haul-out behavior were found due to construction and operation of the wind farm. However, a significant short-term decrease was seen in the number of seals present on land during sheet pile driving in or near the wind farm. Acoustic deterrents were utilized simultaneously to avoid hearing damage.     

Factors Affecting Haul-Out Behavior of Harbor Seals (Phoca vitulina) in Tidewater Glacier Inlets in Alaska: Can Tourism Vessels and Seals Coexist?

Large numbers of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) use habitat in tidewater glaciers in Alaska for pupping, breeding, and molting. Glacial fjords are also popular tourist destinations; however, visitation by numerous vessels can result in disturbance of seals during critical life-history phases. We explored factors affecting haul-out behavior of harbor seals at a glacial site frequented by tourism vessels. In 2008-10, we deployed VHF transmitters on 107 seals in Endicott Arm, Alaska. We remotely monitored presence and haul-out behavior of tagged seals and documented vessel presence with time-lapse cameras. We evaluated the influence of environmental and physical factors on the probability of being hauled out, duration of haul-out bouts, and as factors associated with the start and end of a haulout. Location, season, hour, and interactions of location by year, season, hour, and sex significantly influenced haul-out probability, as did ice, weather, and vessels. Seals were more likely to be hauled out with greater ice availability during the middle of the day, and less likely to be hauled out if vessels were present. Cruise ships had the strongest negative effect; however, most vessel types negatively affected haul-out probability. Haul-out duration was longest in association with starting on incoming tides, clear skies, no precipitation, occurring in the middle of the day, and ending in the late afternoon or evening. End of haulouts was associated with increasing cloud cover, low ice availability, and vessel presence; large-sized tourism vessels or all-vessel-types combined were significant predictors of ending a haul-out bout. Probability of being hauled out was highest in June, during pupping season. Potential disturbances of harbor seals could be reduced, enabling longer resting times for seals and fewer interruptions for nursing pups, if vessels focused the majority of visits to glacial habitat to before or after the hours of 08:00-17:00 or, less optimally, 09:00-16:00.     

EVALUATION OF THE ALASKA HARBOR SEAL (PHOCA VITULINA) POPULATION SURVEY: A SIMULATION STUDY

We used simulation to investigate robust designs and analyses for detecting trends from population surveys of Alaska harbor seals. We employed an operating model approach, creating simulated harbor seal population dynamics and haul-out behavior that incorporated factors thought to potentially affect the performance of aerial surveys. The factors included the number of years, the number of haul-out sites in an area, the number and timing of surveys within a year, known and unknown covariates affecting haul-out behavior, substrate effects, movement among substrates, and variability in survey and population parameters. We found estimates of population trend were robust to the majority of potentially confounding factors, and that adjusting counts for the effects of covariates was both possible and beneficial. The use of mean or maximum counts by site without covariate correction can lead to substantial bias and low power in trend determination. For covariate-corrected trend estimates, there was minimal bias and loss of accuracy was negligible when surveys were conducted 20 d before or after peak haul-out attendance, survey date became progressively earlier across years, and peak attendance fluctuated across years. Trend estimates were severely biased when the effect of an unknown covariate resulted in a long-term trend in the fraction of the population hauled out. A key factor governing the robustness and power of harbor seal population surveys is intersite variability in trend. This factor is well understood for sites within the Prince William Sound and Kodiak trend routes for which at least 10 consecutive annual surveys have been conducted, but additional annual counts are needed for other areas. The operating model approach proved to be an effective means of evaluating these surveys and should be used to evaluate other marine mammal survey designs.     

DIEL HAUL-OUT PATTERNS AND SITE FIDELITY OF HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDSI) ON SAN MIGUEL ISLAND, CALIFORNIA, IN AUTUMN

We studied the haul-out patterns and movements of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardsi ) on San Miguel Island, California, from 23 October through 6 December 1982 by attaching a radio transmitter to each of 18 seals and monitoring their presence ashore with continuously scanning receivers. Seals hauled out at all hours although, on average, the largest proportion of tagged seals was ashore between 1300 and 1500 h. Median durations of haul-out bouts of individual seals ranged from 4.7 to 21.8 h; 81% of all haul-out bouts were less than 12 h and 3% were longer than 24 h. Eighty-one percent of the seals that were resighted at least twice used only the sites where they were tagged; two seals used two sites and one seal used three. Most seals were hauled out on fewer than 51% of the days sampled. On average, about 41% of tagged seals hauled out each day whereas an average of about 19% was hauled out during peak afternoon hours. Using telemetry data to correct a count of 412 seals made during an aerial survey, we estimated absolute abundance at about 2,168 seals; a modified Peterson mark-recapture model produced an estimate of about 1,445 seals.     

STABILITY IN THE PROPORTION OF HARBOR SEALS HAULED OUT UNDER LOCALLY IDEAL CONDITIONS

We monitored the haul-out behavior of 68 radio-tagged harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina ) during the molt season at two Alaskan haul-out sites (Grand Island, August-September 1994; Nanvak Bay, August-September 2000). For each site, we created a statistical model of the proportion of seals hauled out as a function of date, time of day, tide, and weather covariates. Using these models, we identified the conditions that would result in the greatest proportion of seals hauled out. Although those "ideal conditions" differed between sites, the proportion of seals predicted to be hauled out under those conditions was very similar (81.3% for Grand Island and 85.7% for Nanvak Bay). The similar estimates for both sites suggest that haul-out proportions under locally ideal conditions may be constant between years and geographic regions, at least during the molt season.     

MONITORING THE TREND OF HARBOR SEALS IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND,ALASKA, AFTER THE EXXON VALDEZ OIL SPILL

We used aerial counts to monitor the trend in numbers of harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardsi, in Prince William Sound, Alaska, following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Repetitive counts were made at 25 haul-out sites during the annual molt period each year from 1990 through 1997. A generalized linear model indicated that time of day, date, and time relative to low tide significantly affected seal counts. When Poisson regression was used to adjust counts to a standardized set of survey conditions, results showed a highly significant decline of 4.6% per year. Unadjusted counts indicated a slight, but not statistically significant, decline in the number of seals. The number of harbor seals on the trend-count route in eastern and central PWS has been declining since at least 1984, with an overall population reduction of 63% through 1997. Programs to monitor long-term changes in animal population sizes should account for factors that can cause short-term variations in indices of abundance. The inclusion of such factors as covariates in models can improve the accuracy of monitoring programs.     

The role of Steller sea lions in a large population decline of harbor seals

We provide the first direct evidence that Steller sea lions will prey on harbor seals. Direct observations of predation on marine mammals at sea are rare, but when observed rates of predation are extrapolated, predation mortality may be found to be significant. From 1992 to 2002, harbor seals in Glacier Bay declined steeply, from 6,200 to 2,500 (∼65%). After documenting that Steller sea lions were preying on seals in Glacier Bay, we investigated increased predation by sea lions as a potential explanation for the large decline. In five independent data sets spanning 21–25 yr and including 14,308 d of observations, 13 predation events were recorded. We conducted a fine-scale analysis for an intensively studied haul-out (Spider Island) and a broader analysis of all of Glacier Bay. At Spider Island, estimated predation by sea lions increased and could account for the entirety of annual pup production in 5 of 8 yr since 1995. The predation rate, however, was not proportional to the number of predators. Predation by Steller sea lions is a new source of mortality that contributed to the seal declines; however, life history modeling indicates that it is unlikely that sea lion predation is the sole factor responsible for the large declines.     

Fine-Scale Variability in Harbor Seal Foraging Behavior

Understanding the variability of foraging behavior within a population of predators is important for determining their role in the ecosystem and how they may respond to future ecosystem changes. However, such variability has seldom been studied in harbor seals on a fine spatial scale (<30 km). We used a combination of standard and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to explore how environmental variables influenced the dive behavior of harbor seals. Time-depth recorders were deployed on harbor seals from two haul-out sites in the Salish Sea in 2007 (n = 18) and 2008 (n = 11). Three behavioral bout types were classified from six dive types within each bout; however, one of these bout types was related to haul-out activity and was excluded from analyses. Deep foraging bouts (Type I) were the predominant type used throughout the study; however, variation in the use of bout types was observed relative to haul-out site, season, sex, and light (day/night). The proportional use of Type I and Type II (shallow foraging/traveling) bouts differed dramatically between haul-out sites, seasons, sexes, and whether it was day or night; individual variability between seals also contributed to the observed differences. We hypothesize that this variation in dive behavior was related to habitat or prey specialization by seals from different haul-out sites, or individual variability between seals in the study area. The results highlight the potential influence of habitat and specialization on the foraging behavior of harbor seals, and may help explain the variability in diet that is observed between different haul-out site groups in this population.     

HAUL-OUT SELECTION BY PACIFIC HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDII): ISOLATION AND PERCEIVED PREDATION RISK

The potential for non-aquatic predators to influence habitat use by harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina ) in a nearshore marine environment was studied by examining haul-out site use and through an experimental approach. Distance from shore, distance to possible foraging depths, peripheral water depth, and haul-out areas were quantified for each haul-out. There was a positive relationship between the number of seals hauled out and the distance from shore for eight known haul-out sites. The hypothesis that harbor seals increasingly hauled out farther offshore to reduce predation risk was tested experimentally by measuring their response to a model of a potential terrestrial predator in comparison to a control object, and to disturbance by a human at one of the study sites. Harbor seals abandoned the haul-out in the presence of the predator model, but showed little response to the controls, suggesting they possess a threat image for terrestrial predators and avoid hauling out when it is perceived. These results support the hypothesis that harbor seals select isolated sites to reduce exposure to terrestrial carnivores.     

HARBOR SEAL TRACKING AND TELEMETRY BY SATELLITE

We tested a satellite Platform Transmitter Terminal (PTT) in the laboratory (on a float and on captive seals) and on a free-ranging harbor seal in the Southern California Bight to investigate the utility of satellite telemetry in documenting seals'at-sea behavior and movements. We used records from a microprocessor-based time-depth recorder (TDR) to interpret location and diving records from the PTT. For the free-ranging harbor seal, we obtained at least one uplink during 70% (while the seal was at sea) to 82% (while she was ashore) of satellite passes and at least one location each day. Of 62 locations determined by Service Argos for the free-ranging seal, 20 were verified from TDR records to have been at sea; these indicated that the seal may have ranged up to 48 km from the haul-out site, although most locations were within 5 km. The accuracies of locations calculated when the seal was at sea (±15 km) were substantially less than when it was ashore (±1.5 km), thus limiting at-sea tracking of seals by satellite to rather gross movements. Fewer transmissions were detected and locations calculated when the seal was actively diving than when it was swimming near the surface as it departed from or returned to the haul-out site. Consequently, average dive durations indicated by the PTT were substantially shorter than those calculated from TDR records. Documentation of foraging areas and detailed at-sea movements using satellite technology may not be possible for pinnipeds unless PTT-transmission rates are increased substantially from the 1 per 45 set maximum rate now permitted by Service Argos.     

AGONISTIC BEHAVIOR IN HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA) IN RELATION TO THE AVAILABILITY OF HAUL-OUT SPACE

The hypothesis that haul-out space is a contested resource among harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) was tested by comparing the number of agonistic interactions and the time devoted to them, at a haul-out with unlimited space and a haul-out with limited space, in Humboldt County, California. 798 agonistic interactions were recorded in 160 h of observation. The average number of agonistic interactions per seal per hour and the time spent on these interactions were significantly higher at the site with limited haul-our space (P < 0.05, n= 20). At this restricted site, the frequency of agonistic interactions was positively correlated with seal density (r= 0.61, P < 0.05, n= 20), as was time spent on agonistic interactions (r= 0.84, P < 0.05, n= 20). Size, sex, and age-class of individuals all influenced agonistic interactions. In 72.5% of displacements, smaller seals were displaced by larger ones. This may support claims that some harbor seal populations maintain a size-based dominance hierarchy. The results of this study support the hypothesis that there is competition among harbor seals for suitable haul-out space where this resource is limited. The outcome of these interactions may be predicted, at least in part, by theoretical models on pay-off asymmetries, resource holding power, and the prior residency effect.     

THE ABUNDANCE OF HARBOR SEALS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA

The abundance of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardii ) has declined in recent decades at several Alaska locations. The causes of these declines are unknown, but there is concern about the status of the populations, especially in the Gulf of Alaska. To assess the status of harbor seals in the Gulf of Alaska, we conducted aerial surveys of seals on their haul-out sites in August-September 1996. Many factors influence the propensity of seals to haul out, including tides, weather, time of day, and time of year. Because these "covariates" cannot simultaneously be controlled through survey design, we used a regression model to adjust the counts to an estimate of the number of seals that would have been ashore during a hypothetical survey conducted under ideal conditions for hauling out. The regression, a generalized additive model, not only provided an adjustment for the covariates, but also confirmed the nature and shape of the covariate effects on haul-out behavior. The number of seals hauled out was greatest at the beginning of the surveys (mid-August). There was a broad daily peak from about 1100–1400 local solar time. The greatest numbers were hauled out at low tide on terrestrial sites. Tidal state made little difference in the numbers hauled out on glacial ice, where the area available to seals did not fluctuate with the tide. Adjusting the survey counts to the ideal state for each covariate produced an estimate of 30,035 seals, about 1.8 times the total of the unadjusted counts (16,355 seals). To the adjusted count, we applied a correction factor of 1.198 from a separate study of two haul-out sites elsewhere in Alaska, to produce a total abundance estimate of 35,981 (SE 1,833). This estimate accounts both for the effect of covariates on survey counts and for the proportion of seals that remained in the water even under ideal conditions for hauling out.     

KILLER WHALES, ORCINUS ORCA, IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA: RECENT SIGHTINGS andPREDATION ON OTHER MARINE MAMMALS

An unusual number of killer whales appeared in inshore waters of the southeastern Bering Sea in summer 1989 and 1990. Multiple sightings occurred in Bristol and Kuskokwim bays where killer whales had been seen only rarely in previous years. Three animals became stranded on mud flats in Kuskokwim Bay but were able to free themselves on a high tide. Killer whales were observed interacting with salmon, harbor seals, Steller sea lions, walruses, and beluga whales. Detailed observations were made of killer whales attacking belugas in the Naknek River. Local conditions and behavioral adaptations may reduce the susceptibility of belugas to killer whale predation. Continued killer whale activity in this area would be unlikely to affect fish resources, but might have some influence on beluga whales.     

KILLER WHALES AND MARINE MAMMAL TRENDS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC—A RE-EXAMINATION OF EVIDENCE FOR SEQUENTIAL MEGAFAUNA COLLAPSE AND THE PREY-SWITCHING HYPOTHESIS

Springer et al . (2003) contend that sequential declines occurred in North Pacific populations of harbor and fur seals, Steller sea lions, and sea otters. They hypothesize that these were due to increased predation by killer whales, when industrial whaling's removal of large whales as a supposed primary food source precipitated a prey switch. Using a regional approach, we reexamined whale catch data, killer whale predation observations, and the current biomass and trends of potential prey, and found little support for the prey-switching hypothesis. Large whale biomass in the Bering Sea did not decline as much as suggested by Springer et al ., and much of the reduction occurred 50–100 yr ago, well before the declines of pinnipeds and sea otters began; thus, the need to switch prey starting in the 1970s is doubtful. With the sole exception that the sea otter decline followed the decline of pinnipeds, the reported declines were not in fact sequential. Given this, it is unlikely that a sequential megafaunal collapse from whales to sea otters occurred. The spatial and temporal patterns of pinniped and sea otter population trends are more complex than Springer et al . suggest, and are often inconsistent with their hypothesis. Populations remained stable or increased in many areas, despite extensive historical whaling and high killer whale abundance. Furthermore, observed killer whale predation has largely involved pinnipeds and small cetaceans; there is little evidence that large whales were ever a major prey item in high latitudes. Small cetaceans (ignored by Springer et al .) were likely abundant throughout the period. Overall, we suggest that the Springer et al . hypothesis represents a misleading and simplistic view of events and trophic relationships within this complex marine ecosystem.     

Influence of time of day and month on Weddell seal haul-out patterns at the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica

A diurnal pattern in haul-out behaviour has been described for Weddell seals at McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, but regional and seasonal variations were previously unknown. Knowledge of activity patterns is important for standardising census methods and census data. This study quantified the diurnal pattern in haul-out behaviour of Weddell seals at the Vestfold Hills from October 1994 to March 1995. Sequential counts of seals on the ice showed that, between 0900 and 1930 hours, seal abundance differed up to 95%. Fewer seals were hauled out in the morning than in the afternoon. The maximum numbers of seals were hauled out at the warmest time of day. The diurnal cycle was less pronounced in the breeding season than in the moulting season. The findings indicated the importance of censusing Weddell seals after 1430 hours and before 1700 hours local time, especially in the moulting season. Correction factors are given for month and time of day. Received: 27 November 1996 / Accepted: 1 May 1997     

Mark-resight estimates of seasonal variation in harbor seal abundance and site fidelity

Monitoring trends in abundance of pinnipeds typically involves counting seals at terrestrial haul-out sites during the breeding season. Counts of seals made at other times of the year are typically lower; however, it is often unknown whether this is because fewer animals are present or whether lower counts simply reflect a reduction in haul-out probability. Here we illustrate how photo-identification data from an individual-based study of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) can be used to estimate seasonal variation in abundance and site fidelity. Monthly data collected over a two-year period were analyzed using a mark-recapture mark-resight model accounting for individuals transitioning between observable and unobservable states. Levels of site fidelity were high throughout the year and abundance estimates showed no seasonal pattern. This suggests that individual seals used haul-out sites to the same extent throughout the year, and that peaks in counts during the breeding season are a result of seasonal changes in haul-out probability. The results of this study have implications for understanding population sub-structuring, gene flow and disease spread.     

Satellite tracking of ringed seals Phoca hispida off northwest Greenland

We monitored movements and haul-out patterns of four ringed seals Phoca hispida , off Northwest Greenland between 5 June and 31 October 1988 using the Argos Data Collection and Location System When the seals were hauled out on fast ice their locations were accurately determined, but when they were at sea, few accurate locations were obtained, evidently because these seals spent little time at the surface between dives The seals remained within the fjord where they were tagged, and hauled out often to early July Thereafter, as fast-ice disappeared, they dispersed widely and spent less time hauled out Time of day had no significant effect on haul-out patterns Haul-out periods declined significantly from June to August and increased in September-October Satellite contact with one seal was lost after 16 d while the seal was still in the fjord in late June One seal travelled over 200 km southwest and was located 4 July in offshore waters of Smith Sound 30 d after instrumentation Another seal moved southeast along the Greenland coast where contact was lost after 49 d on 23 July The fourth seal moved north along the Greenland coast, hauled out regularly on ice, and returned south along the coast in late September and October after 181 d of contact with the satellite     

Cooperative hunting behavior,prey selectivity and prey handling by pack ice killer whales (Orcinus orca), type B,in Antarctic Peninsula waters

Currently, there are three recognized ecotypes (or species) of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Antarctic waters, including type B, a putative prey specialist on seals, which we refer to as “pack ice killer whale” (PI killer whale). During January 2009, we spent a total of 75.4 h observing three different groups of PI killer whales hunting off the western Antarctic Peninsula. Observed prey taken included 16 seals and 1 Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis). Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) were taken almost exclusively (14/15 identified seal kills), despite the fact that they represented only 15% of 365 seals identified on ice floes; the whales entirely avoided taking crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga; 82% relative abundance) and leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx; 3%). Of the seals killed, the whales took 12/14 (86%) off ice floes using a cooperative wave‐washing behavior; they produced 120 waves during 22 separate attacks and successfully took 12/16 (75%) of the Weddell seals attacked. The mean number of waves produced per successful attack was 4.1 (range 1–10) and the mean attack duration was 30.4 min (range 15–62). Seal remains that we examined from one of the kills provided evidence of meticulous postmortem prey processing perhaps best termed “butchering.”     

Reaction of Harbor Seals to Cruise Ships

Abstract: The largest aggregations of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in Alaska, USA, haul out on floating ice in tidewater glacial fjords. Seals use these fjords in peak numbers during the critical periods of pupping, breeding, and molting when visits by tour ships also peak. Documented and suspected declines of harbor seals in fjords with rising vessel traffic underscore the need to better understand possible impacts, particularly in areas where ship visits have risen substantially in the past 2 decades. We examined the interruption of haul-out bouts of harbor seals due to approaching cruise ships in Disenchantment Bay, Alaska. We conducted observations from cruise ships and focused on disturbance of seals as evidenced by seals flushing into the water from the floating ice on which they rested. We investigated rate of flushing in relation to vessel distance, approach angle, group size, and seal type (mother, pup, or other). Using a survival-regression analysis, we found that the risk of disturbing harbor seals increased when ships approached within 500 m; seals approached as close as 100 m were 25 times more likely to enter the water than seals 500 m from a ship. Seals were 4 times more prone to enter the water when ships were approaching directly rather than passing abeam. Seals responded similarly regardless of group size or seal type. Energetic models indicated a potential to disrupt energy balance and cause thermal stress in disturbed pups if they spent >50% of their time in ice-chilled water. Studies at non-glacial sites suggest that pups spend 40–70% of their time in the water. Voluntary guidelines for approaching seals in Alaska recommend that cruise ships approach ≥91 m (100 yards), a distance at which we show 90% of seals would flush into the water. Our findings indicate a need to develop regulations to maintain a 500-m separation between cruise ships and seals in all Alaskan glacial fjords.     

CORRECTING AERIAL SURVEY COUNTS OF HARBOR SEALS (PHOCA VITULINA RICHARDSI) IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON

Aerial surveys of harbor seals on land produce only a minimum assessment of the population; a correction factor to account for the missing animals is necessary to estimate total abundance. In 1991 and 1992, VHF radio tags were deployed on harbor seals ( n = 124) at six sites in Washington and Oregon. During aerial surveys a correction factor to account for seals in the water was determined from the proportion of radio-tagged seals on shore during the pupping season. This proportion ranged from 0.54 to 0.74. Among the six sites there was no significant difference in the proportion of animals on shore nor was there a difference in age/sex categories of seals on shore between sites. The pooled correction factor for determining total population abundance was 1.53. An additional 32 seals were radio tagged in 1993 at one of the sites used in 1991. Comparing data from the two years, we found no interannual variation. Aerial surveys of all known harbor seal haul-out sites in Washington ( n = 319) and Oregon ( n = 68) were flown during the peak of the pupping season, 1991–1993. The Washington and Oregon harbor seal population was divided into two stocks based on pupping phenology, morphometics, and genetics. Mean counts for the Washington inland stock were 8,710 in 1991, 9,018 in 1992, and 10,092 in 1993. Oregon and Washington coastal stock mean counts were 18,363 in 1991, 18,556 in 1992, and 17,762 in 1993. Multiplying the annual count by the correction factor yielded estimates of harbor seal abundance in the Washington inland stock of 13,326 (95% CI = 11,637–15,259) for 1991, 13,798 (95% CI = 11,980–15,890) for 1992, and 15,440 (95% CI = 13,382–17,814) for 1993. In the Oregon and Washington coastal stock the corrected estimate of harbor seal abundance was 28,094 (95% CI = 24,697–31,960) in 1991, 28,391 (95% CI = 24,847–32,440) for 1992, and 27,175 (95% CI = 23,879–30,926) for 1993.