Morphological Integration, Evolutionary Constraints, and Extinction: A Computer Simulation-Based Study

It is well known that there is a strong relationship among the environment, selection, and extinction, but the underlying role of genetics and genetic constraints in contributing to extinction is less appreciated. Integration of characters may enhance survivability for species, providing that selective pressure is parallel with the patterns of morphological integration. However, we hypothesize that, if the direction of selection shifts, integration may also prevent populations from responding quickly enough to the new directions of selection. This would lead to the inability to find a successful adaptive solution, causing downward pressure on the population, and ultimately, extinction. We test this model with a computer simulation, using an adaptive landscape model. We generate populations of varying levels of multivariate integration and generate selection pressures to test the ability of the populations to respond to selection both parallel and orthogonal to the axis of maximum variation. In these simulations, more highly integrated populations survived longer when selection was in the direction of maximum variation. However, when selection was closer to orthogonal to the axis of maximum variation, extinction was more rapid in highly integrated populations. These results suggest that integration may play a strong role in both survivability and extinction. Tightly integrated populations are highly persistent when selection pressure is close to the axis of maximum variation, which is expected to frequently be the case since integration is likely often a product of selection. However, these highly integrated taxa are more susceptible to extinction when the direction of selection shifts, and is closer to orthogonal to the axis of maximum variation.     

Adaptive introgression in animals: examples and comparison to new mutation and standing variation as sources of adaptive variation

Adaptive genetic variation has been thought to originate primarily from either new mutation or standing variation. Another potential source of adaptive variation is adaptive variants from other (donor) species that are introgressed into the (recipient) species, termed adaptive introgression. Here, the various attributes of these three potential sources of adaptive variation are compared. For example, the rate of adaptive change is generally thought to be faster from standing variation, slower from mutation and potentially intermediate from adaptive introgression. Additionally, the higher initial frequency of adaptive variation from standing variation and lower initial frequency from mutation might result in a higher probability of fixation of the adaptive variants for standing variation. Adaptive variation from introgression might have higher initial frequency than new adaptive mutations but lower than that from standing variation, again making the impact of adaptive introgression variation potentially intermediate. Adaptive introgressive variants might have multiple changes within a gene and affect multiple loci, an advantage also potentially found for adaptive standing variation but not for new adaptive mutants. The processes that might produce a common variant in two taxa, convergence, trans‐species polymorphism from incomplete lineage sorting or from balancing selection and adaptive introgression, are also compared. Finally, potential examples of adaptive introgression in animals, including balancing selection for multiple alleles for major histocompatibility complex (MHC), S and csd genes, pesticide resistance in mice, black colour in wolves and white colour in coyotes, Neanderthal or Denisovan ancestry in humans, mimicry genes in Heliconius butterflies, beak traits in Darwin's finches, yellow skin in chickens and non‐native ancestry in an endangered native salamander, are examined.     

The impact of interspecific competition on lineage evolution and a rapid peak shift by interdemic genetic mixing in experimental bacterial populations

Epistatic interactions between genes in the genome constrain the accessible evolutionary paths of lineages. Two factors involving epistasis that can affect the evolutionary path and fate of lineages were investigated. The first factor concerns the impact of competition with another species lineage that has different epistatic constraints. Five enteric bacterial populations were evolved by point mutation in medium containing a single limiting resource. Single-species and two-species cultures were used to determine whether different asexual lineages have different capacities for producing variants due to epistatic constraints, and whether their survival is determined by local inter-lineage competition with different species. Local inter-lineage competition quickly resulted in one successful lineage, with another lineage becoming extinct before finding a higher peak. The second factor concerns a peak-shifting process, and whether the sexual recombination between different demes can cause peak shifts was investigated. An Escherichia coli population consisting of a male (Hfr) and female strain (F(-)) was evolved in a single limiting resource and compared to evolving populations containing the male or female strain alone. The E. coli sexual lineage was successful due to its ability to escape lower peaks and reach a higher peak, not because of a rapid approach to the nearest local peak the male or female asexual lineage could reach. The data in this study demonstrate that lineage survivability can be determined by the ability to produce beneficial mutations and checked by local competition between lineages of different species. Interspecific competition may prevent a population from evolving through crossing fitness valleys or adaptive ridges if it requires many generations to achieve peak shifts. The data also show that genomic recombination between different conspecific lineages can rapidly carry the combined lineage to a higher peak.     

Digging their own macroevolutionary grave: fossoriality as an evolutionary dead end in snakes

The tree of life is highly asymmetrical in its clade wise species richness, and this has often been attributed to variation in diversification rates either across time or lineages. Variations across lineages are usually associated with traits that increase lineage diversification. Certain traits can also hinder diversification by increasing extinction, and such traits are called evolutionary dead ends. Ecological specialization has usually been considered as an evolutionary dead end. However, recent analyses of specializations along single axes have provided mixed support for this model. Here, we test if fossoriality, a trait that forces specialization at multiple axes, acts as an evolutionary dead end in squamates (lizards and snakes) using recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods. We show that fossoriality is an evolutionary dead end in snakes but not in lizards. Fossorial snakes exhibit reduced speciation and increased extinction compared to nonfossorial snakes. Our analysis also indicates that transition rates from fossoriality to nonfossoriality in snakes are significantly lower than transition rates from nonfossoriality to fossoriality. Overall our results suggest that broad‐scale ecological interactions that lead to specialization at multiple axes limit diversification.     

Causes and consequences of the evolution of reproductive mode in Caenorhabditis nematodes

Reproduction is directly connected to the suite of developmental and physiological mechanisms that enable it, but how it occurs also has consequences for the genetics, ecology and longer term evolutionary potential of a lineage. In the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, anatomically female XX worms can self-fertilize their eggs. This ability evolved recently and in multiple Caenorhabditis lineages from male-female ancestors, providing a model for examining both the developmental causes and longer term consequences of a novel, convergently evolved reproductive mode. Here, we review recent work that implicates translation control in the evolution of XX spermatogenesis, with different selfing lineages possessing both reproducible and idiosyncratic features. We also discuss the consequences of selfing, which leads to a rapid loss of variation and relaxation of natural and sexual selection on mating-related traits, and may ultimately put selfing lineages at a higher risk of extinction.     

Does phenotypic plasticity initiate developmental bias?

The generation of variation is paramount for the action of natural selection. Although biologists are now moving beyond the idea that random mutation provides the sole source of variation for adaptive evolution, we still assume that variation occurs randomly. In this review, we discuss an alternative view for how phenotypic plasticity, which has become well accepted as a source of phenotypic variation within evolutionary biology, can generate nonrandom variation. Although phenotypic plasticity is often defined as a property of a genotype, we argue that it needs to be considered more explicitly as a property of developmental systems involving more than the genotype. We provide examples of where plasticity could be initiating developmental bias, either through direct active responses to similar stimuli across populations or as the result of programmed variation within developmental systems. Such biased variation can echo past adaptations that reflect the evolutionary history of a lineage but can also serve to initiate evolution when environments change. Such adaptive programs can remain latent for millions of years and allow development to harbor an array of complex adaptations that can initiate new bouts of evolution. Specifically, we address how ideas such as the flexible stem hypothesis and cryptic genetic variation overlap, how modularity among traits can direct the outcomes of plasticity, and how the structure of developmental signaling pathways is limited to a few outcomes. We highlight key questions throughout and conclude by providing suggestions for future research that can address how plasticity initiates and harbors developmental bias.     

Cryptic genetic variation can make “irreducible complexity” a common mode of adaptation in sexual populations

The existence of complex (multiple‐step) genetic adaptations that are “irreducible” (i.e., all partial combinations are less fit than the original genotype) is one of the longest standing problems in evolutionary biology. In standard genetics parlance, these adaptations require the crossing of a wide adaptive valley of deleterious intermediate stages. Here, we demonstrate, using a simple model, that evolution can cross wide valleys to produce “irreducibly complex” adaptations by making use of previously cryptic mutations. When revealed by an evolutionary capacitor, previously cryptic mutants have higher initial frequencies than do new mutations, bringing them closer to a valley‐crossing saddle in allele frequency space. Moreover, simple combinatorics implies an enormous number of candidate combinations exist within available cryptic genetic variation. We model the dynamics of crossing of a wide adaptive valley after a capacitance event using both numerical simulations and analytical approximations. Although individual valley crossing events become less likely as valleys widen, by taking the combinatorics of genotype space into account, we see that revealing cryptic variation can cause the frequent evolution of complex adaptations.     

Adaptive potential of northernmost tree populations to climate change, with emphasis on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)

The adaptive potential of the northernmost Pinus sylvestris L. (and other northern tree) populations is considered by examining first the current patterns of quantitative genetic adaptive traits, which show high population differentiation and clines. We then consider the postglacial history of the populations using both paleobiological and genetic data. The current patterns of diversity at nuclear genes suggest that the traces of admixture are mostly visible in mitochondrial DNA variation patterns. There is little evidence of increased diversity due to admixture between an eastern and western colonization lineage, but no signal of reduced diversity (due to sequential bottlenecks) either. Quantitative trait variation in the north is not associated with the colonizing lineages. The current clines arose rapidly and may be based on standing genetic variation. The initial phenotypic response of Scots pine in the north is predicted to be increased survival and growth. The genetic responses are examined based on quantitative genetic predictions of sustained selection response and compared with earlier simulation results that have aimed at more ecological realism. The phenotypic responses of increased growth and survival reduce the opportunity for selection and delay the evolutionary responses. The lengthening of the thermal growing period also causes selection on the critical photoperiod in the different populations. Future studies should aim at including multiple ecological and genetic factors in evaluating potential responses.     

Avoiding extinction under nonlinear environmental change: models of evolutionary rescue with plasticity

Rapid environmental changes are putting numerous species at risk of extinction. For migration-limited species, persistence depends on either phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation (evolutionary rescue). Current theory on evolutionary rescue typically assumes linear environmental change. Yet accelerating environmental change may pose a bigger threat. Here, we present a model of a species encountering an environment with accelerating or decelerating change, to which it can adapt through evolution or phenotypic plasticity (within-generational or transgenerational). We show that unless either form of plasticity is sufficiently strong or adaptive genetic variation is sufficiently plentiful, accelerating or decelerating environmental change increases extinction risk compared to linear environmental change for the same mean rate of environmental change.     

Adaptive cyanogenesis clines evolve recurrently through geographical sorting of existing gene deletions

Identifying the genetic basis of parallel phenotypic evolution provides insight into the process of adaptation and evolutionary constraint. White clover (Trifolium repens) has evolved climate‐associated adaptive clines in cyanogenesis (the ability to produce hydrogen cyanide upon tissue damage) in several world regions where it has been introduced. Gene‐deletion polymorphisms at the CYP79D15 and Li loci underlie the presence/absence of the cyanogenic phenotype. Both loci have undergone multiple independent gene‐deletion events, which are identifiable through molecular signatures in flanking regions. To investigate whether cyanogenesis clines in introduced populations have evolved through the sorting of standing genetic variation or de novo gene deletions, we examined cyanogenesis gene‐flanking regions in three world regions. In comparison with native Eurasian populations, we find no evidence for novel gene deletion events in any introduced region, which suggests that these adaptive clines have evolved through the geographical sorting of pre‐existing genetic variation.     

Shared ancestral polymorphisms and chromosomal rearrangements as potential drivers of local adaptation in a marine fish

Gene flow has tremendous importance for local adaptation, by influencing the fate of de novo mutations, maintaining standing genetic variation and driving adaptive introgression. Furthermore, structural variation as chromosomal rearrangements may facilitate adaptation despite high gene flow. However, our understanding of the evolutionary mechanisms impending or favouring local adaptation in the presence of gene flow is still limited to a restricted number of study systems. In this study, we examined how demographic history, shared ancestral polymorphism, and gene flow among glacial lineages contribute to local adaptation to sea conditions in a marine fish, the capelin (Mallotus villosus). We first assembled a 490‐Mbp draft genome of M. villosus to map our RAD sequence reads. Then, we used a large data set of genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (25,904 filtered SNPs) genotyped in 1,310 individuals collected from 31 spawning sites in the northwest Atlantic. We reconstructed the history of divergence among three glacial lineages and showed that they probably diverged from 3.8 to 1.8 million years ago and experienced secondary contacts. Within each lineage, our analyses provided evidence for large N_e and high gene flow among spawning sites. Within the Northwest Atlantic lineage, we detected a polymorphic chromosomal rearrangement leading to the occurrence of three haplogroups. Genotype–environment associations revealed molecular signatures of local adaptation to environmental conditions prevailing at spawning sites. Our study also suggests that both shared polymorphisms among lineages, resulting from standing genetic variation or introgression, and chromosomal rearrangements may contribute to local adaptation in the presence of high gene flow.     

Foraging environment determines the genetic architecture and evolutionary potential of trophic morphology in cichlid fishes

Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to change their phenotype in response to shifts in the environment. While a central topic in current discussions of evolutionary potential, a comprehensive understanding of the genetic underpinnings of plasticity is lacking in systems undergoing adaptive diversification. Here, we investigate the genetic basis of phenotypic plasticity in a textbook adaptive radiation, Lake Malawi cichlid fishes. Specifically, we crossed two divergent species to generate an F₃ hybrid mapping population. At early juvenile stages, hybrid families were split and reared in alternate foraging environments that mimicked benthic/scraping or limnetic/sucking modes of feeding. These alternate treatments produced a variation in morphology that was broadly similar to the major axis of divergence among Malawi cichlids, providing support for the flexible stem theory of adaptive radiation. Next, we found that the genetic architecture of several morphological traits was highly sensitive to the environment. In particular, of 22 significant quantitative trait loci (QTL), only one was shared between the environments. In addition, we identified QTL acting across environments with alternate alleles being differentially sensitive to the environment. Thus, our data suggest that while plasticity is largely determined by loci specific to a given environment, it may also be influenced by loci operating across environments. Finally, our mapping data provide evidence for the evolution of plasticity via genetic assimilation at an important regulatory locus, ptch1. In all, our data address long‐standing discussions about the genetic basis and evolution of plasticity. They also underscore the importance of the environment in affecting developmental outcomes, genetic architectures, morphological diversity and evolutionary potential.     

Trait independence primes convergent trait loss

The repeated, independent evolution of traits (convergent evolution) is often attributed to shared environmental selection pressures. However, developmental dependencies among traits can limit the phenotypic variation available to selection and bias evolutionary outcomes. Here, we determine how changes in developmentally correlated traits may impact convergent loss of the tympanic middle ear, a highly labile trait within toads that currently lack adaptive explanation. The middle ear's lability could reflect evolutionary trade‐offs with other skull features under selection, or the middle ear may evolve independently of the rest of the skull, allowing it to be modified by active or passive processes without pleiotropic trade‐offs with other skull features. We compare the skulls of 55 species (39 eared, 16 earless) within the family Bufonidae, spanning six hypothesized independent middle ear transitions. We test whether shared or lineage‐specific changes in skull shape distinguish earless species from eared species and whether earless skulls lack other late‐forming skull bones. We find no evidence for pleiotropic trade‐offs between the middle ear and other skull structures. Instead, middle ear loss in anurans may provide a rare example of developmental independence contributing to evolutionary lability of a sensory system.     

Distribution of Fitness in Populations of Dengue Viruses

Genetically diverse RNA viruses like dengue viruses (DENVs) segregate into multiple, genetically distinct, lineages that temporally arise and disappear on a regular basis. Lineage turnover may occur through multiple processes such as, stochastic or due to variations in fitness. To determine the variation of fitness, we measured the distribution of fitness within DENV populations and correlated it with lineage extinction and replacement. The fitness of most members within a population proved lower than the aggregate fitness of populations from which they were drawn, but lineage replacement events were not associated with changes in the distribution of fitness. These data provide insights into variations in fitness of DENV populations, extending our understanding of the complexity between members of individual populations.     

Concordance between stabilizing sexual selection,intraspecific variation,and interspecific divergence in Phymata

Empirical studies show that lineages typically exhibit long periods of evolutionary stasis and that relative levels of within‐species trait covariance often correlate with the extent of between‐species trait divergence. These observations have been interpreted by some as evidence of genetic constraints persisting for long periods of time. However, an alternative explanation is that both intra‐ and interspecific variation are shaped by the features of the adaptive landscape (e.g., stabilizing selection). Employing a genus of insects that are diverse with respect to a suite of secondary sex traits, we related data describing nonlinear phenotypic (sexual) selection to intraspecific trait covariances and macroevolutionary divergence. We found support for two key predictions (1) that intraspecific trait covariation would be aligned with stabilizing selection and (2) that there would be restricted macroevolutionary divergence in the direction of stabilizing selection. The observed alignment of all three matrices offers a point of caution in interpreting standing variability as metrics of evolutionary constraint. Our results also illustrate the power of sexual selection for determining variation observed at both short and long timescales and account for the apparently slow evolution of some secondary sex characters in this lineage.     

How the type of anthropogenic change alters the consequences of ecological traps

Understanding altered ecological and evolutionary dynamics in novel environments is vital for predicting species responses to rapid environmental change. One fundamental concept relevant to such dynamics is the ecological trap, which arises from rapid anthropogenic change and can facilitate extinction. Ecological traps occur when formerly adaptive habitat preferences become maladaptive because the cues individuals preferentially use in selecting habitats lead to lower fitness than other alternatives. While it has been emphasized that traps can arise from different types of anthropogenic change, the resulting consequences of these different types of traps remain unknown. Using a novel model framework that builds upon the Price equation from evolutionary genetics, we provide the first analysis that contrasts the ecological and evolutionary consequences of ecological traps arising from two general types of perturbations known to trigger traps. Our model suggests that traps arising from degradation of existing habitats are more likely to facilitate extinction than those arising from the addition of novel trap habitat. Importantly, our framework reveals the mechanisms of these outcomes and the substantial scope for persistence via rapid evolution that may buffer many populations from extinction, helping to resolve the paradox of continued persistence of many species in dramatically altered landscapes.     

EXPLOSIVE RADIATION OR CRYPTIC MASS EXTINCTION? INTERPRETING SIGNATURES IN MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES

How biodiversity is generated and maintained underlies many major questions in evolutionary biology, particularly relating to the tempo and pattern of diversification through time. Molecular phylogenies and new analytical methods provide additional tools to help interpret evolutionary processes. Evolutionary rates in lineages sometimes appear punctuated, and such "explosive" radiations are commonly interpreted as adaptive, leading to causative key innovations being sought. Here we argue that an alternative process might explain apparently rapid radiations ("broom-and-handle" or "stemmy" patterns seen in many phylogenies) with no need to invoke dramatic increase in the rate of diversification. We use simulations to show that mass extinction events can produce the same phylogenetic pattern as that currently being interpreted as due to an adaptive radiation. By comparing simulated and empirical phylogenies of Australian and southern African legumes, we find evidence for coincident mass extinctions in multiple lineages that could have resulted from global climate change at the end of the Eocene.     

An evolutionary tipping point in a changing environment

Populations can persist in directionally changing environments by evolving. Quantitative genetic theory aims to predict critical rates of environmental change beyond which populations go extinct. Here, we point out that all current predictions effectively assume the same specific fitness function. This function causes selection on the standing genetic variance of quantitative traits to become increasingly strong as mean trait values depart from their optima. Hence, there is no bound on the rate of evolution and persistence is determined by the critical rate of environmental change at which populations cease to grow. We then show that biologically reasonable changes to the underlying fitness function can impose a qualitatively different extinction threshold. In particular, inflection points caused by weakening selection create local extrema in the strength of selection and thus in the rate of evolution. These extrema can produce evolutionary tipping points, where long‐run population growth rates drop from positive to negative values without ever crossing zero. Generic early‐warning signs of tipping points are found to have little power to detect imminent extinction, and require hard‐to‐gather data. Furthermore, we show how evolutionary tipping points produce evolutionary hysteresis, creating extinction debts.     

Rapid adaptation in a fast-changing world: Emerging insights from insect genomics

Many researchers have questioned the ability of biota to adapt to rapid anthropogenic environmental shifts. Here, we synthesize emerging genomic evidence for rapid insect evolution in response to human pressure. These new data reveal diverse genomic mechanisms (single locus, polygenic, structural shifts; introgression) underpinning rapid adaptive responses to a variety of anthropogenic selective pressures. While the effects of some human impacts (e.g. pollution; pesticides) have been previously documented, here we highlight startling new evidence for rapid evolutionary responses to additional anthropogenic processes such as deforestation. These recent findings indicate that diverse insect assemblages can indeed respond dynamically to major anthropogenic evolutionary challenges. Our synthesis also emphasizes the critical roles of genomic architecture, standing variation and gene flow in maintaining future adaptive potential. Broadly, it is clear that genomic approaches are essential for predicting, monitoring and responding to ongoing anthropogenic biodiversity shifts in a fast-changing world.