Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T _max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).     

The HSP70 heat shock response in the Antarctic fish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Harpagifer antarcticus</Emphasis>

Members of the HSP70 gene family comprising the constitutive (HSC70) and inducible (HSP70) genes, plus GRP78 (Glucose-regulated protein 78 kDa) were surveyed for expression levels via Q-PCR after both an acute 2-h heat shock experiment and a time course assay in the Antarctic plunderfish Harpagifer antarcticus. In general, down regulation of all genes was observed during the course of the heat shock experiments. This thermally induced down regulation was particularly acute for the GRP78 gene, which at one time point was more than 100-fold down regulated. These results demonstrate the loss of the heat shock response in H. antarcticus, a basal member of the Notothenioidei. This finding is discussed with reference to the survival of Notothenioids during observed ocean warming and also the reorganisation of cellular protein mechanisms of species living in extreme environments.     

Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming

This paper aims to explain the results of an observational population study that was carried out between 1991 and 1995 in six regions (departments) in France. The study was to assess the relationship between temperature and mortality in a few areas of France that offer widely varying climatic conditions and lifestyles, to determine their thermal optimum, defined as a 3 degrees C temperature band with the lowest mortality rate in each area, and then to compare the mortality rates from this baseline band with temperatures above and below the baseline. The study period was selected because it did not include extreme cold or hot events such as a heatwave. Data on daily deaths from each department were first used to examine the entire population and then to examine men, women, various age groups and various causes of death (respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, other disease of the circulatory system, and all other causes excluding violent deaths). Mean temperatures were provided by the National Weather Service. The results depicted an asymmetrical V- or U-shaped relationship between mortality and temperature, with a thermal optimum lower for the elderly, and generally lower for women than for men except in Paris. The relationship was also different depending on the cause of death. In all cases, more evidence was collected showing that cold weather was more deadly than hot weather, and it would now be interesting to enlarge the study to include years with cold spells and heatwaves. Furthermore, the results obtained could be of great use in estimating weather-related mortality as a consequence of future climate-change scenarios.     

Lack of an HSP70 heat shock response in two Antarctic marine invertebrates

Members of the HSP70 gene family comprising the inducible (HSP70) genes and GRP78 (glucose-regulated protein 78 kDa) were identified in an Antarctic sea star (Odontaster validus) and an Antarctic gammarid (Paraceradocus gibber). These genes were surveyed for expression levels via Q-PCR after an acute 2-hour heat shock experiment in both animals and a time course assay in O. validus. No significant up-regulation was detected for any of the genes in either of the animals during the acute heat shock. The time course experiment in O. validus produced slightly different results with an initial down regulation in these genes at 2°C, but no significant up-regulation of the genes either at 2 or 6°C. Therefore, the classical heat shock response is absent in both species. The data is discussed in the context of the organisms’ thermal tolerance and the applicability of HSP70 to monitor thermal stress in Antarctic marine organisms.     

Effects of cold- and heat hardening on thermal resistance in Drosophila melanogaster

The effects of cold- and heat hardening on resistance to both low and high temperature stress was examined in Drosophila melanogaster lines selected for resistance to either cold or heat. The hardening effect was positive when the hardening was of the same type as the stress in all selection regimes. The effect of cold hardening on survival after heat stress was further examined in the lines selected for cold resistance and corresponding controls. A cross-protection effect (increased heat resistance after cold hardening) was present and this effect was lower in the lines selected for resistance to cold than in the controls. The level of Hsp70 expression induced by a non-lethal cold hardening was examined, showing that cold hardening induced Hsp70 expression. The results suggest that the cross-protection effect is at least partly due to Hsp70 expression induced by cold exposure.     

Complex patterns of geographic variation in heat tolerance and Hsp70 expression levels in the common frog Rana temporaria

1.

We tested for geographical variation in heat tolerance and Hsp70 expression levels of Rana temporaria tadpoles along a 1500 km long latitudinal gradient in Sweden.     

Trends in Dissolved Organic Carbon in UK Rivers and Lakes

Several studies have highlighted an increase in DOC concentration in streams and lakes of UK upland catchments though the causal mechanisms controlling the increase have yet to be fully explained. This study, compiles a comprehensive data set of DOC concentration records for UK catchments to evaluate trends and test whether observed increases are ubiquitous over time and space. The study analysed monthly DOC time series from 198 sites, including 29 lakes, 8 water supply reservoirs and 161 rivers. The records vary in length from 8 to 42 years going back as far as 1961. Of the 198 sites, 153 (77%) show an upward trend in DOC concentration significant at the 95% level, the remaining 45 (23%) show no significant trend and no sites show a significant decrease in DOC concentration. The average annual increase in DOC concentration was 0.17 mg C/l/year. The dataset shows: (i) a spatial consistent upward trend in the DOC concentration independent of regional effects of rainfall, acid and nitrogen deposition, and local effects of land-use change; (ii) a temporally consistent increase in DOC concentration for period back as far as the 1960s; (iii) the increase in DOC concentration means an estimated DOC flux from the UK as 0.86 Mt C for the year 2002 and is increasing at 0.02 Mt C/year. Possible reasons for the increasing DOC concentration are discussed.     

Thermal acclimation,heat shock and photoperiod: Do these factors interplay in the adaptive responses of crab neuromuscular systems to temperature?

Evidence is reviewed demonstrating that the adaptive responses to temperature made by the walking leg neuromuscular system of crabs (Carcinus maenas) are in response to local temperature and not in response to hierarchical influences by the CNS and hormonal systems.     

Effect of temperature extremes on the spatial dynamics of predator–prey interactions: A case study with dragonfly nymphs and newt larvae

Theory predicts that predators are more vulnerable to increasing temperature than prey. Despite huge variations in the magnitude and duration of thermally-extreme episodes in nature, most empirical studies on predator–prey interactions consider conditions induced by a climatic shift in mean temperature. We asked whether the increased vulnerability of predators holds under daily thermal extremes occurring during heat waves, using dragonfly nymphs and newt larvae as the predator–prey model system. Direct exposure of predator to prey in heated and non-heated aquaria under semi-natural conditions revealed that predator movements increased with rising temperature, whereas prey activity decreased. In contrast to the theory of predator–prey space use, the spatial co-occurrence of predator and prey individuals increased with temperature, while predation rates diminished. We conclude that daily thermal extremes affect trophic interactions in the same way, i.e. through the increased vulnerability of predators, as do long-term shifts in mean environmental temperature. Our results highlight the importance of behavioral studies for understanding mechanisms mediating the effect of extreme thermal events on species interactions.     

Thermolability of mouse oocytes is due to the lack of expression and/or inducibility of Hsp70

Eukaryotic and prokaryotic cells have been shown to respond to physical and chemical stress by the induction of proteins called heat shock proteins. Heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70), is the most ubiquitous of these proteins. Although heat shock proteins are generally thought to protect cells from physiologically stressful stimuli, it cannot be assumed that this is so, because several cases exist in which thermotolerance is acquired without the production of heat shock proteins, and in several other cases the hyperproduction of these heat shock proteins does not produce thermotolerance. In this study we show that unfertilized mouse oocytes are sensitive to elevated temperatures, and that the synthesis of Hsp70 cannot be induced in these oocytes. Furthermore, our data demonstrate that the expression of Hsp70 in mouse oocytes is sufficient for the acquisition of thermotolerance. Mouse oocytes were injected with mRNA for Hsp70, and the viability of these oocytes was determined after heating. The number of viable oocytes was significantly higher in the group injected with Hsp70 mRNA and then heated compared with oocytes injected with Hsp70 antisense mRNA and sham-injected controls treated in an identical manner. No significant differences in the number of viable oocytes were found between the group that had been injected with Hsp70 mRNA, heated, and then allowed to recover for 3 hr and the group maintained at 37 degrees C throughout.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

热休克转录因子1与机体耐热性的相关研究

热休克转录因子1(HSF1)能够启动各种热休克蛋白基因的诱导表达,这对防止机体免受热应激损伤具有重要的意义。从HSF1的结构、功能及活化过程等几个方面阐述了HSF1的生理特征及其与机体耐热性能之间的关系。     

The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.     

The development of ecosystem objectives for the Laurentian Great Lakes

Historically management of human use of ecosystems has been based around engineering and chemical approaches and through the construction of treatment facilities, effluent controls and setting chemical concentrations, both at end of pipe and in the aquatic environment. However, the general continued degradation of many ecosystems shows these approaches alone are insufficient. In the Laurentian Great Lakes the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement was first signed in 1972 and ratified in 1978 and in 1987 tacitly acknowledged the problems with a chemical only approach by requiring the development of ecosystem objectives in the 1978 agreement. Furthermore, the agreement specifically identified numerical ecosystem objectives in the 1987 agreement. The evolution of ecosystem objectives in the Great Lakes has expanded from the strictly numerical objectives such as production of lake trout and abundance of the amphipod Pontoporeia hoyi. More recent developments in ecosystem objectives have been the inclusion of indicators for wildlife, habitat, human health and stewardship.Prepared as a discussion paper presented to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's seminar on an Ecosystems Approach to Water Management (May 27–31, 1991).