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1.
Climate change has the potential to alter the genetic diversity of plant populations with consequences for community dynamics and ecosystem processes. Recent research focused on changes in climatic means has found evidence of decreased precipitation amounts reducing genetic diversity. However, increased variability in climatic regimes is also predicted with climate change, but the effects of this aspect of climate change on genetic diversity have yet to be investigated. After 10 years of experimentally increased intra-annual variability in growing season precipitation regimes, we report that the number of genotypes of the dominant C4 grass, Andropogon gerardii Vitman, has been significantly reduced in native tallgrass prairie compared with unmanipulated prairie. However, individuals showed a different pattern of genomic similarity with increased precipitation variability resulting in greater genome dissimilarity among individuals when compared to unmanipulated prairie. Further, we found that genomic dissimilarity was positively correlated with aboveground productivity in this system. The increased genomic dissimilarity among individuals in the altered treatment alongside evidence for a positive correlation of genomic dissimilarity with phenotypic variation suggests ecological sorting of genotypes may be occurring via niche differentiation. Overall, we found effects of more variable precipitation regimes on population-level genetic diversity were complex, emphasizing the need to look beyond genotype numbers for understanding the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity. Recognition that future climate change may alter aspects of genetic diversity in different ways suggests possible mechanisms by which plant populations may be able to retain a diversity of traits in the face of declining biodiversity. 相似文献
2.
Climate change is anticipated to alter plant species distributions. Regional context, notably the spatial complexity of climatic gradients, may influence species migration potential. While high‐elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as land area decreases with elevation. To untangle these apparently contradictory predictions for mountainous regions, we evaluated the climatic suitability of four coniferous forest tree species of the western United States based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and examined changes in climatically suitable areas under predicted climate change. We used forest structural information relating to tree species dominance, productivity, and demography from an extensive forest inventory system to assess the strength of inferences made with a SDM approach. We found that tree species dominance, productivity, and recruitment were highest where climatic suitability (i.e., probability of species occurrence under certain climate conditions) was high, supporting the use of predicted climatic suitability in examining species risk to climate change. By predicting changes in climatic suitability over the next century, we found that climatic suitability will likely decline, both in areas currently occupied by each tree species and in nearby unoccupied areas to which species might migrate in the future. These trends were most dramatic for high elevation species. Climatic changes predicted over the next century will dramatically reduce climatically suitable areas for high‐elevation tree species while a lower elevation species, Pinus ponderosa, will be well positioned to shift upslope across the region. Reductions in suitable area for high‐elevation species imply that even unlimited migration would be insufficient to offset predicted habitat loss, underscoring the vulnerability of these high‐elevation species to climatic changes. 相似文献
3.
Forecasting range shifts of a cold‐adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?
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Spyros Theodoridis Theofania S. Patsiou Christophe Randin Elena Conti 《Ecography》2018,41(8):1357-1369
Cold‐adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold‐adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high‐throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate species distribution models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineage‐specific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold‐adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change. 相似文献
4.
P. Marchelli E. Thomas M. M. Azpilicueta M. van Zonneveld L. Gallo 《Tree Genetics & Genomes》2017,13(6):119
We investigated the impact of past changes in habitat suitability on the current patterns of genetic diversity of two southern beeches (Nothofagus nervosa and Nothofagus obliqua) in their eastern fragmented range in Patagonian Argentina, and model likely future threats to their population genetic structure. Our goal was to develop a spatially-explicit strategy for guiding conservation and management interventions in light of climate change. We combined suitability modelling under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum ~ 21,000 bp), and future (2050s) climatic conditions with genetic characterization data based on chloroplast DNA, isozymes, and microsatellites. We show the complementary usefulness of the distribution of chloroplast haplotypes and locally common allelic richness calculated from microsatellite data for identifying the locations of putative glacial refugia. Our findings suggest that contemporary hotspots of genetic diversity correspond to convergence zones of different expansion routes, most likely as a consequence of admixture processes. Future suitability predictions suggest that climate change might differentially affect both species. All genetically most diverse populations of N. nervosa and several of N. obliqua are located in areas that may be most severely impacted by climate change, calling for forward-looking conservation interventions. We propose a practical spatially- explicit strategy to target conservation interventions distinguishing priority populations for (1) in situ conservation (hotspots of genetic diversity likely to remain suitable under climate change), (2) ex situ conservation in areas where high genetic diversity overlaps with high likelihood of drastic climate change, (3) vulnerable populations (areas expected to be negatively affected by climate change), and (4) potential expansion areas under climate change. 相似文献
5.
Eleftheria Dalmaris Cristina E. Ramalho Pieter Poot Erik J. Veneklaas Margaret Byrne 《Annals of botany》2015,116(6):941-952
Background and Aims A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia.Methods Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM).Key Results A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction.Conclusions Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change. 相似文献
6.
Jian-bo Wu Yu-bao GaoXiao-ying Bao Hui GaoMei-qing Jia Jie LiNian-xi Zhao 《Biochemical Systematics and Ecology》2010
In order to investigate the genetic diversity of dominant species under the background of climate change and grassland utilization in the Inner Mongolia Plateau of China, we sampled seven Stipa grandis populations along an increasing aridity gradient in the present study. The Nei’s gene diversity of populations (He) was estimated to be 0.15 and the percentage of polymorphic loci (PPL) was 49.28%. The genetic differentiation among populations (ΦST) was 0.2431. There was a significant relationship between genetic distance and geographic distance among the S. grandis populations by Mantel's test. The genetic diversity was significantly correlated with longitude and annual mean precipitation, which suggested that a combination of climatic factors affected the genetic diversity. The populations in the marginal habitat should be paid more attention because of their low genetic diversity and its significance for conservation of the whole species. 相似文献
7.
Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change 总被引:11,自引:1,他引:10
Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate‐related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range‐wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate‐related genetic diversity within populations. 相似文献
8.
Ayub M. O. Oduor Huaping Long A. Belarmain Fandohan Jian Liu Xiubo Yu 《Biological invasions》2018,20(10):2745-2751
Invasion by exotic plant species and herbivory can individually alter native plant species diversity, but their interactive effects in structuring native plant communities remain little studied. Many exotic plant species escape from their co-evolved specialized herbivores in their native range (in accordance with the enemy release hypothesis). When these invasive plants are relatively unpalatable, they may act as nurse plants by reducing herbivore damage on co-occurring native plants, thereby structuring native plant communities. However, the potential for unpalatable invasive plants to structure native plant communities has been little investigated. Here, we tested whether presence of an unpalatable exotic invader Opuntia ficus-indica was associated with the structure of native plant communities in an ecosystem with a long history of grazing by ungulate herbivores. Along 17 transects (each 1000 m long), we conducted a native vegetation survey in paired invaded and uninvaded plots. Plots that harboured O. ficus-indica had higher native plant species richness and Shannon–Wiener diversity H′ than uninvaded plots. However, mean species evenness J was similar between invaded and uninvaded plots. There was no significant correlation between native plant diversity and percentage plot cover by O. ficus-indica. Presence of O. ficus-indica was associated with a compositional change in native community assemblages between paired invaded and uninvaded plots. Although these results are only correlative, they suggest that unpalatable exotic plants may play an important ecological role as refugia for maintenance of native plant diversity in intensely grazed ecosystems. 相似文献
9.
Background
The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants?Results
We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective.Conclusion
Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost. 相似文献10.
Marco Pautasso Katharina Dehnen‐Schmutz Ottmar Holdenrieder Stéphane Pietravalle Nabeil Salama Mike J. Jeger Eckart Lange Sigrid Hehl‐Lange 《Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society》2010,85(4):729-755
Global change (climate change together with other worldwide anthropogenic processes such as increasing trade, air pollution and urbanization) will affect plant health at the genetic, individual, population and landscape level. Direct effects include ecosystem stress due to natural resources shortage or imbalance. Indirect effects include (i) an increased frequency of natural detrimental phenomena, (ii) an increased pressure due to already present pests and diseases, (iii) the introduction of new invasive species either as a result of an improved suitability of the climatic conditions or as a result of increased trade, and (iv) the human response to global change. In this review, we provide an overview of recent studies on terrestrial plant health in the presence of global change factors. We summarize the links between climate change and some key issues in plant health, including tree mortality, changes in wildfire regimes, biological invasions and the role of genetic diversity for ecosystem resilience. Prediction and management of global change effects are complicated by interactions between globalization, climate and invasive plants and/or pathogens. We summarize practical guidelines for landscape management and draw general conclusions from an expanding body of literature. 相似文献
11.
Jason D. Fridley 《Global Change Biology》2015,21(11):4165-4176
Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long‐term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community‐level responses to long‐term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. 相似文献
12.
Lisa Biber-Freudenberger Jasmin Ziemacki Henri E. Z. Tonnang Christian Borgemeister 《PloS one》2016,11(4)
Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
13.
Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent environmental variables and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to model the current and future habitat suitability of the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) and then defined the dispersal limits of the species using cost distance analysis. The current habitat suitability model generated using the maximum entropy algorithm was highly consistent with the known distribution of the species and had good predictive performance. Projections onto years 2050 and 2070 predicted a drastic decrease of habitat suitability across all RCPs, with up to 90.1% decrease of suitable area and 98.0% decrease of optimal area predicted from binary presence grids. The models also predicted a northeastward shift of habitat suitability toward high‐elevation areas and a persistence of suitability along the central ridge of the Baekdudaegan Range. This area is likely to become a climatic refugium for the species in the future, and it should be considered as an area of conservation priority. Therefore, we urge further ecological studies and population monitoring to be conducted across the range of O. koreanus. The vulnerability to rapid climate change is also shared by other congeneric species, and assessing the impacts of climate change on these other species is needed to better conserve this unique lineage of salamanders. 相似文献
14.
PAUL KARDOL COURTNEY E. CAMPANY LARA SOUZA RICHARD J. NORBY JAKE F. WELTZIN AIMEE T. CLASSEN 《Global Change Biology》2010,16(10):2676-2687
Atmospheric and climatic change can alter plant biomass production and plant community composition. However, we know little about how climate change‐induced alterations in biomass production affect plant species composition. To better understand how climate change will alter both individual plant species and community biomass, we manipulated atmospheric [CO2], air temperature, and precipitation in a constructed old‐field ecosystem. Specifically, we compared the responses of dominant and subdominant species to our climatic treatments, and explored how changes in plant dominance patterns alter community evenness over 2 years. Our study resulted in four major findings: (1) all treatments, elevated [CO2], warming, and increased precipitation increased plant community biomass and the effects were additive rather than interactive, (2) plant species differed in their response to the treatments, resulting in shifts in the proportional biomass of individual species, which altered the plant community composition; however, the plant community response was largely driven by the positive precipitation response of Lespedeza, the most dominant species in the community, (3) precipitation explained most of the variation in plant community composition among treatments, and (4) changes in precipitation caused a shift in the dominant species proportional biomass that resulted in lower community evenness in the wet relative to dry treatments. Interestingly, compositional and evenness responses of the subdominant community to the treatments did not always follow the responses of the whole plant community. Our data suggest that changes in plant dominance patterns and community evenness are an important part of community responses to climatic change, and generally, that such compositional shifts can alter ecosystem biomass production and nutrient inputs. 相似文献
15.
《Aquatic Botany》2007,86(1):1-8
Differences in the reproductive mode (sexual and vegetative reproduction) between populations of a species may produce diverse patterns of genetic structure within and among populations. We analyzed the clonal diversity of populations of a heterostylous plant (Nymphoides indica (L.) Kuntze) having different floral morph ratios in the Higashi-harima area of Japan. The number of MLGs (multilocus genotypes) in populations with equal floral morph ratios was significantly higher than that among populations with biased floral morph ratios and among monomorphic populations. Populations with equal floral morph ratios followed the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. A dispersal distance of 0–4.2 km was significantly correlated with Nei's genetic distance, supporting a stepping-stone model of dispersal. Four rare MLGs were included in populations with equal floral morph ratios, distributed among neighboring populations. We concluded that clonal diversity of N. indica in the Higashi-harima area is maintained by the success of seed production and establishment of seedlings, and by the proximate occurrence of habitats around the populations where successful sexual reproduction occurs. 相似文献
16.
《Fungal Ecology》2021
Understanding the biogeographic patterns of root-associated fungi and their sensitivity to temperature may improve predictions of future changes in terrestrial biodiversity and associated ecosystem processes, but data are currently limited. Anticipating change will require combining observational data, which predict how climatic factors limit current species distributions, with direct manipulations of climate, which can isolate responses to specific climate variables. Root endophytes are common symbionts of plants, particularly in arctic and alpine environments, yet their responses to climate warming are not resolved. Here, we directly cultured endophytic fungi from roots collected along altitudinal gradients in replicated mountain watersheds and from a 27 y field warming experiment in the Rocky Mountains, USA, to improve understanding of climate impacts on fungal root endophytes. Fungal taxa that were common at high elevations declined most under climate warming, whereas low elevation dominants responded neutrally or increased with experimental warming. Altitudinal gradients in fungal communities were strongly specific to the plant host species. Specifically, Poa species had 25–60% greater fungal isolate abundance and 25–38% greater fungal diversity at high elevations than at low elevation sites. In contrast, Festuca thurberi had 64% lower fungal diversity on roots at high elevation than at low elevation. Our results help to improve understanding of the potential for climate change to alter plant-fungal interactions in mountain ecosystems. 相似文献
17.
Jizhong Wan Chunjing Wang Jinghua Yu Siming Nie Shijie Han Yuangang Zu Changmei Chen Shusheng Yuan Qinggui Wang 《Ecology and evolution》2014,4(14):2884-2900
Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate change. 相似文献
18.
Montserrat del Cacho Josep Peñuelas Francisco Lloret 《Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics》2013,15(6):319-327
The effects of climate change on plant reproductive performance affects the sequence of different plant reproductive stages from flowering to seed production and viability, as well as the network of relationships between them. These effects are expected to respond to different components of climate change, such as temperature and water availability, and may be sensitive to differences in species phenology.We used long-term experimental drought and warming treatments to study the effect of climate change on flower production, fruit and seed-set, seed size and seed germination rate (proportion of germinating seeds) in three Mediterranean shrubs coexisting in a coastal shrubland.Larger plants produced significantly more flowers in all three species, and higher fruit-set in Dorycnium pentaphyllum. Flower production was reduced in drought and warming treatments in the spring-flowering species D. pentaphyllum and Helianthemum syriacum, but not in the autumn–winter species Erica multiflora, which increased flowering in the warming treatment. However, the drought treatment eventually resulted in a decreased seed-set in E. multiflora. Structural equation modelling revealed strong correlations between the sequential reproductive stages. Specifically, flower density in inflorescences determined seed-set in H. syriacum, and seed size and germination rate in E. multiflora. Nevertheless, the relevance of relationships between reproductive traits changed between climatic treatments: in D. pentaphyllum a direct relationship between plant size and seed size only arised in the drought treatment, while in H. syriacum climate treatments resulted in a stronger relationship between the number of flowers and seed-set.This experimental study shows the ability of changing climatic variables to determine the reproductive sequential process of woody species. We show that several parameters of the reproductive performance of some Mediterranean species are affected by drought and warming treatments simulating climate change, highlighting the importance of changes in both water availability and temperature, and the sequential relationship between reproductive stages. Phenological patterns also contribute to species’ differential responses to climatic change, due to the relationship of these patterns with resource availability, environmental conditions and plant–pollinator interactions. 相似文献
19.
Nadia Bystriakova Stephen W. Ansell Stephen J. Russell Michael Grundmann Johannes C. Vogel Harald Schneider 《Annals of botany》2014,113(3):453-465
Background and Aims
Climate change is expected to alter the geographic range of many plant species dramatically. Predicting this response will be critical to managing the conservation of plant resources and the effects of invasive species. The aim of this study was to predict the response of temperate homosporous ferns to climate change.Methods
Genetic diversity and changes in distribution range were inferred for the diploid rock fern Asplenium fontanum along a South–North transect, extending from its putative last glacial maximum (LGM) refugia in southern France towards southern Germany and eastern-central France. This study reconciles observations from distribution models and phylogeographic analyses derived from plastid and nuclear diversity.Key Results
Genetic diversity distribution and niche modelling propose that genetic diversity accumulates in the LGM climate refugium in southern France with the formation of a diversity gradient reflecting a slow, post-LGM range expansion towards the current distribution range. Evidence supports the fern''s preference for outcrossing, contradicting the expectation that homosporous ferns would populate new sites by single-spore colonization. Prediction of climate and distribution range change suggests that a dramatic loss of range and genetic diversity in this fern is possible. The observed migration is best described by the phalanx expansion model.Conclusions
The results suggest that homosporous ferns reproducing preferentially by outcrossing accumulate genetic diversity primarily in LGM climate refugia and may be threatened if these areas disappear due to global climate change. 相似文献20.
Craine JM Nippert JB Towne EG Tucker S Kembel SW Skibbe A McLauchlan KK 《Oecologia》2011,165(4):1109-1117
Future climate change is likely to reduce the floristic diversity of grasslands. Yet the potential consequences of climate-induced
plant species losses for the functioning of these ecosystems are poorly understood. We investigated how climate change might
alter the functional composition of grasslands for Konza Prairie, a diverse tallgrass prairie in central North America. With
species-specific climate envelopes, we show that a reduction in mean annual precipitation would preferentially remove species
that are more abundant in the more productive lowland positions at Konza. As such, decreases in precipitation could reduce
productivity not only by reducing water availability but by also removing species that inhabit the most productive areas and
respond the most to climate variability. In support of this prediction, data on species abundance at Konza over 16 years show
that species that are more abundant in lowlands than uplands are preferentially reduced in years with low precipitation. Climate
change is likely to also preferentially remove species from particular functional groups and clades. For example, warming
is forecast to preferentially remove perennials over annuals as well as Cyperaceae species. Despite these predictions, climate
change is unlikely to unilaterally alter the functional composition of the tallgrass prairie flora, as many functional traits
such as physiological drought tolerance and maximum photosynthetic rates showed little relationship with climate envelope
parameters. In all, although climatic drying would indirectly alter grassland productivity through species loss patterns,
the insurance afforded by biodiversity to ecosystem function is likely to be sustained in the face of climate change. 相似文献