Spatial Isolation and Temporal Variation in Fitness and Condition Facilitate Divergence in a Migratory Divide

A novel migratory polymorphism evolved within the last 60 years in blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) breeding sympatrically in southwestern Germany. While most individuals winter in the traditional areas in the Mediterranean, a growing number of blackcaps started migrating to Britain instead. The rapid microevolution of this new strategy has been attributed to assortative mating and better physical condition of birds wintering in Britain. However, the isolating barriers as well as the physical condition of birds are not well known. In our study, we examined whether spatial isolation occurred among individuals with distinct migratory behaviour and birds with different arrival dates also differed in physical and genetic condition. We caught blackcaps in six consecutive years upon arrival on the breeding grounds and assigned them via stable isotope analysis to their wintering areas. Analysis of the vegetation structure within blackcap territories revealed different microhabitat preferences of birds migrating to distinct wintering areas. Blackcaps arriving early on the breeding grounds had higher survival rates, better body condition and higher multilocus heterozygosities than later arriving birds. We did however not find an effect of parasite infection status on arrival time. Our results suggest that early arriving birds have disproportionate effects on population dynamics. Allochrony and habitat isolation may thus act together to facilitate ongoing divergence in hybrid zones, and migratory divides in particular.     

Fruit tracking between sites and years by birds in Mediterranean wintering grounds

Knowledge of the ability of birds to track spatiotemporal variation in fruit distribution is essential for understanding plant-frugivore interactions. Arguably, although total fruit availability sets an upper limit to the number of birds that can exploit a habitat patch, not all species can equally distribute abundance according to variation in fruit resources. To explore this, we studied bird and fruit abundance in 1999–2005 in Mediterranean scrublands and woodlands of southern Spain. We analysed whether changes of fruit abundance in eight different sites during six winters could predict numerical changes of a set of frugivorous passerines of the area (blackcap Sylvia atricapilla , Sardinian warbler S. melanocephala , robin Erithacus rubecula , song thrush Turdus philomelos and blackbird T. merula ). We also investigated if all frugivores together tracked fruits better than individual species, thereby supporting a shared use of resources. Results showed strong inter-specific differences. Only the most abundant species (blackcaps and robins) tracked the spatial patterning of food despite strong differences in the use of space (vagrant and territorial, respectively). This suggests plastic behaviour of territorial robins, with individuals changing from strictly territorial to wandering, a flexibility that would favour between-site numerical arrangements according to food resources. Annual changes in bird numbers were independent of the availability of fruits, except for blackcaps, an abundant vagrant bird that tracked inter-winter changes in fruit abundance. The abundance of blackcaps fitted the spatiotemporal patterning of fruit resources better than the whole guild of frugivorous birds, inconsistent with the idea that these species track together the changing availability of fruit resources.     

SOME ASPECTS OF THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE WATTLED PLOVER AFRIBYX SENEGALLUS (LINNAEUS)

The question of how aridity might influence avian clutch size, through the influences of rainfall seasonality and environmental stochasticity (unpredictability), has received little attention. A marked east-west gradient in aridity across South Africa provides a unique opportunity to test for such influences. Using an extensive collection of nest records for 106 terrestrial bird species from the South African Nest Record Card Scheme, we tested three predictions related to rainfall seasonality and stochasticity. Analyses were conducted at two levels, the first examining each species independently, and the second grouping species into five dietary guilds. The first prediction, that clutch size should generally increase with higher rainfall seasonality (i.e. higher seasonal fluctuation of food availability), was supported, particularly in the most arid environments where food abundance is more closely linked to rainfall. Controlling for rainfall seasonality, the second prediction, that clutch size should generally decrease as a bet-hedging strategy in arid, stochastic environments, was also supported. Although the timing of the rainy season differs among regions in South Africa (winter, early summer, later summer, year-round), birds primarily nest during spring. The relative timing of rainfall and breeding is expected to have different consequences for seasonal variation in clutch size among rainfall regions. The third prediction, of different patterns of seasonal variation in clutch size between rainfall regions, was also supported. In the winter and early-summer rainfall regions, early-nesting birds (breeding with or soon after the rains) generally had a larger clutch size than late-nesting birds. In the late-summer rainfall region, early-nesting birds (breeding well before the rains) had a smaller clutch size than late-nesting birds.     

A theoretical investigation of the effect of latitude on avian life histories

Tropical birds lay smaller clutches than birds breeding in temperate regions and care for their young for longer. We develop a model in which birds choose when and how often to breed and their clutch size, depending on their foraging ability and the food availability. The food supply is density dependent. Seasonal environments necessarily have a high food peak in summer; in winter, food levels drop below those characteristic of constant environments. A bird that cannot balance its energy needs during a week dies of starvation. If adult predation is negligible, birds in low seasonal environments are constrained by low food during breeding seasons, whereas birds in high seasonal environments die during the winter. Low food seasonality selects for small clutch sizes, long parental care times, greater age at first breeding, and high juvenile survival. The inclusion of adult predation has no major effect on any life-history variables. However, increased nest predation reduces clutch size. The same trends with seasonality are also found in a version of the model that includes a condition variable. Our results show that seasonal changes in food supply are sufficient to explain the observed trends in clutch size, care times, and age at first breeding.     

Does wintering north or south of the Sahara correlate with timing and breeding performance in black‐tailed godwits?

Migrating long distances requires time and energy, and may interact with an individual's performance during breeding. These seasonal interactions in migratory animals are best described in populations with disjunct nonbreeding distributions. The black‐tailed godwit (Limosa limosa limosa), which breeds in agricultural grasslands in Western Europe, has such a disjunct nonbreeding distribution: The majority spend the nonbreeding season in West Africa, while a growing number winters north of the Sahara on the Iberian Peninsula. To test whether crossing the Sahara has an effect on breeding season phenology and reproductive parameters, we examined differences in the timing of arrival, breeding habitat quality, lay date, egg volume, and daily nest survival among godwits (154 females and 157 males), individually marked in a breeding area in the Netherlands for which wintering destination was known on the basis of resightings. We also examined whether individual repeatability in arrival date differed between birds wintering north or south of the Sahara. Contrary to expectation, godwits wintering south of the Sahara arrived two days earlier and initiated their clutch six days earlier than godwits wintering north of the Sahara. Arrival date was equally repeatable for both groups, and egg volume larger in birds wintering north of the Sahara. Despite these differences, we found no association between wintering location and the quality of breeding habitat or nest survival. This suggests that the crossing of an important ecological barrier and doubling of the migration distance, twice a year, do not have clear negative reproductive consequences for some long‐distance migrants.     

Use of ring recoveries to predict habitat suitability in small passerines

Aim Abundance of small passerines may be distributed over large wintering areas according to geographical patterns that are difficult to detect. This may prevent the identification and conservation of the most suitable sectors, or the detection of local and regional features affecting the species during winter. In this paper, we explore the usefulness of ring recoveries to predict bird distribution in wintering grounds by using Maxent, one of the presence‐only techniques available for modelling species distributions. We test whether suitability indices obtained in 2.5 × 2.5 km UTM squares from ring recoveries were positively correlated with the actual abundance of robins (Erithacus rubecula) and blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) inside the squares. Location Spain. Methods We used 686 and 1139 localities across the country in which blackcap and robin ring recoveries were recorded by the Spanish Office of Migratory Species to generate the suitability maps. In addition, we sampled bird abundance inside 70 control squares independent of ring recovery localities along a belt crossing mountains, highlands and lowlands of the Iberian Peninsula during January from 2006 to 2011. Results Suitability indices predicted by Maxent were positively correlated with robin (r = 0.42, n = 70, P < 0.001) and blackcap (r = 0.52, n = 70, P < 0.001) abundances in the 70 control squares along the belt crossing the Iberian Peninsula. Main conclusions These results suggest that the use of distribution models with ring recoveries may be used to describe the habitat suitability of the winter ranges of small, common passerines. This also means that the huge number of ring recoveries stored in national and transnational data banks could be used to explore the factors shaping bird ranges and to forecast the geographical distribution of suitable wintering areas of migratory birds in large, poorly known regions. This may be useful in biogeography and conservation.     

Seasonal distribution of a migratory bird: effects of local and regional resource tracking

Aim We studied how local and regional abundance of a migratory passerine (the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla) track resource availability in breeding and wintering grounds, in an attempt to understand the processes underlying the distribution and regulation of migratory bird populations in summer and in winter. Location Our study was conducted in Spain. In summer, we sampled five localities representing the diversity of environmental conditions met by breeding Spanish blackcaps. In winter, we sampled eight localities in the wintering range of the species including different habitat types (forests and shrublands). Methods Our approach was based on the matching rule, a model that predicts that any local variation in resource abundance between two adjacent habitat patches should be tracked by animals through a similar variation in population abundance. Eventually, this local process should conform to abundance distributions at regional scales. We sampled two habitat patches in each locality, each one including three to five line transects, 500‐m long and 50‐m wide, where we counted blackcaps and measured vegetation structure and fruit abundance. Results During the breeding season, the abundance of blackcaps was strongly correlated with the ground cover of brambles (Rubus spp.), a bush which grows in moist sectors in Mediterranean forests and is the commonest nesting substrate of Spanish blackcaps. Both local and regional changes in bramble cover were tracked by variations in blackcap abundance. However, the rate of increase in blackcap abundance with increasing bramble cover along the Spanish gradient was lower than the one predicted under resource matching. In winter, abundance of fruiting shrubs was the best predictor of blackcap abundance, although local abundance of blackcaps not always fitted local abundance of fruits. Notwithstanding this effect, the regional pattern of abundance tracked changes in fruit availability according to the matching rule. Main conclusions Our results support the strong effect of habitat quality on the abundance distribution of blackcaps and the tracking of different key resources along the year. Together with the different degrees of resource tracking by blackcaps at local and regional scales, these results also support the view that both breeding and wintering processes have to be studied, and studies have to be conducted at the appropriate spatial scales, if we are to understand the processes underlying the abundance distribution of migratory birds.     

Vererbung einer populationsspezifischen Mauser bei Kreuzung von M?nchsgrasmücken (Sylvia atricapilla) verschiedener Populationen

A comparative study of migratory blackcaps from Central Europe (S. Germany) and resident conspecifics from the Cape Verde Islands revealed marked differences in annual periodicity. European blackcaps, with one breeding season per year, have a single-peaked annual gonadal cycle whereas the African birds with two breeding seasons per annum have a two-peaked gonadal cycle. The European birds go through a post-juvenile moult (partial moult in first-year birds) or postnuptial moult (complete moult in adults) and, in addition, through a partial winter moult (all age classes) before the next gonadal cycle and breeding season. Their African conspecifics, on the other hand, have only one moult between two gonadal cycles, the summer moult also being the complete one. Here, we demonstrate that the additional winter moult of European blackcaps is heritable and can be transmitted into interpopulational hybrids. When blackcaps from S. Germany and the Cape Verdes were cross-bred, 16 out of 21 hybrids displayed the partial winter moult of their German parents. The fact that not all but only 76% of the F1 hybrids passed through this moult favours the idea that its incidence is controlled by a polygenic rather than a single locus system. Most likely winter moult in European blackcaps represents a threshold character as several migratory features do.     

Territorial aggression and song of male European robins (Erithacus rubecula) in autumn and spring: effects of antiandrogen treatment

Male robins aggressively defending a feeding territory in winter have low levels of testosterone, while males defending a breeding territory in spring have elevated levels of testosterone. Song is an integrated part of territorial defense during both phases. We investigated whether testosterone is involved in the expression of these behaviors by treating free-living and captive male robins during both phases with the antiandrogen flutamide. Results suggest that, similar to species in which territoriality is restricted to the reproductive phase, aggressive defense of a breeding territory by male robins is facilitated by androgens. Territorial defense during the nonbreeding season, however, does not require androgenic activity. Singing frequency, on the other hand, was not significantly reduced during either phase by flutamide application. Since the quality of male song changes with season we suggest that the incorporation of sexual signals into male song during breeding depends on testosterone, but that the year-round production of territorial "keep out" signals is independent of testosterone.     

Migratory behaviour affects the trade-off between feather growth rate and feather quality in a passerine bird

Migratory birds have less time for moulting than sedentary birds, which may force them to produce their feathers faster at the expense of reducing feather quality. However, the effects of migration on the trade-off between moult speed and plumage quality remain to be studied in natural populations. We analysed the relationship between growth rate and quality of individual feathers, taking advantage of natural variation between migratory and sedentary populations of blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla . As predicted by life-history theory, individual blackcaps showed variable individual quality, which was revealed by positive correlations between feather growth rate and feather mass within populations. However, migrants grew up their feathers faster, producing lighter feathers than sedentary blackcaps. These results support the idea that feather growth rate and feather quality are traded against each other in blackcaps. Such a trade-off is apparently caused by different selection associated to migratory and sedentary life styles, which opens new insights into the diversification of moult patterns in birds.  © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2009, 97 , 98–105.     

Variation in the mechanical properties of flight feathers of the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla in relation to migration

Migration causes temporal and energetic constraints during plumage development, which can compromise feather structure and function. In turn, given the importance of a good quality of flight feathers in migratory movements, selection may have favoured the synthesis of feathers with better mechanical properties than expected from a feather production constrained by migration necessities. However, no study has assessed whether migratory behaviour affects the relationship between the mechanical properties of feathers and their structural characteristics. We analysed bending stiffness (a feather mechanical property which is relevant to birds’ flight), rachis width and mass (two main determinants of variation in bending stiffness) of wing and tail feathers in migratory and sedentary blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla. Migratory blackcaps produced feathers with a narrower rachis in both wing and tail, but their feathers were not significantly lighter; in addition, bending stiffness was higher in migratory blackcaps than in sedentary blackcaps. Such unexpected result for bending stiffness remained when we statistically controlled for individual variation in rachis width and feather mass, which suggests the existence of specific mechanisms that help migratory blackcaps to improve the mechanical behaviour of their feathers under migration constraints.     

REPRODUCTIVE COST,AGE-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL AND A COMPARISON OF THE REPRODUCTIVE STRATEGY IN TWO EUROPEAN TITS (GENUS PARUS)

Theoretical analyses of optimal reproductive rates usually assume a trade-off between offspring production and parental survival. This study verified a survival cost for willow tit males; nonbreeding males survived better than males attending a brood. Theory also predicts a smaller clutch size in birds that are less successful in transforming reproductive investments into mature offspring. As predicted, we found that crested tits, suffering a higher nest predation rate, laid smaller clutches than willow tits. The generally lower survival rate of willow tit adults may largely be attributed to their higher reproductive commitment (larger willow tit clutch size), because no significant interspecific survival difference remained between nonbreeding males. Finally, in willow tits we found a positive correlation between average clutch size and juvenile survival rate (density-dependent) the ensuing year, suggesting that willow tits may adjust clutch size in response to changing survival prospects for their young by using the breeding density as a cue.     

Sex and age-specific differences in wing pointedness and wing length in blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla migrating through the southern Baltic coast

The blackcap Sylvia atricapilla shows a complex migratory pattern and is a suitable species for the studies of morphological migratory syndrome, including adaptations of wing shape to different migratory performance. Obligate migrants of this species that breed in northern, central, and Eastern Europe differ by migration distance and some cover shorter distance to the wintering grounds in the southern part of Europe/North Africa or the British Isles, although others migrate to sub-Saharan Africa. Based on ˃40 years of ringing data on blackcaps captured during autumn migration in the Southern Baltic region, we studied age- and sex-related correlations in wing pointedness and wing length of obligate blackcap migrants to understand the differences in migratory behavior of this species. Even though the recoveries of blackcaps were scarce, we reported some evidence that individuals which differ in migration distance differed also in wing length. We found that wing pointedness significantly increased with an increasing wing length of migrating birds, and adults had longer and more pointed wings than juvenile birds. This indicates stronger antipredator adaptation in juvenile blackcaps than selection on flight efficiency, which is particularly important during migration. Moreover, we documented more pronounced differences in wing length between adult and juvenile males and females. Such differences in wing length may enhance a faster speed of adult male blackcaps along the spring migration route and may be adaptive when taking into account climatic effects, which favor earlier arrival from migration to the breeding grounds.     

Do southern African songbirds live longer than their European counterparts?

Understanding life history evolution in tropical and southern hemisphere birds has been hindered by a paucity of knowledge of key life history traits and this is particularly true of African songbirds. Here we use a unique long-term mark-recapture data set collected over 16 years in Malawi (latitude 16°S) to estimate adult survival rates for 28 African passerine species. Survival of these and 11 other African songbirds (taken from the literature) showed a bi-modal distribution with annual survival of insectivores and nectarivores (bulbuls, thrushes, warblers and sunbirds) averaging 72% (quartiles 63–80%) compared to 54% (50–62%) in granivores (weavers, finches and canaries). The mean adult life expectancy of African insectivores and nectarivores (3.1 yr) was more than twice that of related European insectivores (1.4 yr) and nearly twice that of African granivores (1.6 yr). These marked differences in survival were highly significant after controlling for body mass and phylogeny. Among African songbirds there was a strong negative correlation between adult survival and clutch size with granivores laying relatively large clutches and living relatively short lives. We hypothesize that these differing life history trade-offs reflect variation in the seasonality of food resources whereby survival rates of northern temperate songbirds may be limited by food availability and cold weather during winter, while survival of southern African granivores may be limited by the influence of a variable and unpredictable rainfall regime on seed availability.     

Do migratory pathways affect the regional abundance of wintering birds? A test in northern Spain

Aim The abundance distribution of organisms at regional scales is commonly interpreted as the result of spatial variation in habitat suitability. However, the possibility that geography itself may affect patterns of distribution has received less attention. For example, the abundance of wintering bird populations might be influenced by the cost of reaching areas located far away from the main migratory pathways. We studied the abundance distribution of three common migratory passerines (meadow pipits, Anthus pratensis; common chaffinches, Fringilla coelebs; and European robins, Erithacus rubecula) wintering in farmlands located in the 600‐km long Cantabrian coastal sector of northern Spain, roughly perpendicular to the west Pyrenean migratory pathway that drives European migrant birds into the Iberian Peninsula. Location The study area occupies a belt located between the Atlantic coast and the Cantabrian Mountains in northern Spain. Methods We counted wintering and breeding birds and measured the structure of vegetation and environmental variables (altitude, rainfall, temperature) in 68 farmlands distributed at different distances from the west Pyrenean migratory flyway. We also studied the distribution of birds ringed in central and northern Europe and recovered in the study area between October and February. Analyses were based on single univariate statistics (chi‐square tests), ordination by principal components analysis and multiple regression. Results Controlling for the effects of climate, vegetation structure and local abundance of breeding conspecifics, the winter abundance of all three species decreased with the distance from their main migratory route in the western Pyrenees. Such patterns fitted well to the observed distribution of ringing recoveries. Main conclusions Our results support a link between the movements of birds along the Pyrenean migratory pathway and their winter abundance in northern Spain. According to this view, the sectors located near the migratory pathway seem to be more easily occupied by migrants, supporting the idea that proximity to passage areas may explain the fine‐grain regional patterning of species abundance in wintering grounds.     

The effect of water availability on fuel deposition of two staging Sylvia warblers

In order to succeed in crossing extensive ecological barriers, migratory birds usually deposit fuel en route. High rates of fuel deposition may enable birds to shorten their total migration time and are therefore advantageous for time-minimizing migrants. Several studies have suggested that water provision may increase food utilization in non-migratory birds. The goal of this study was to test the influence of water availability on the fuel deposition of en route migratory passerines. We studied fuel deposition of blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla and lesser whitethroats S. curruca staging in a plantation of Mount Atlas gum-tree Pistacia atlantica in the northern Negev desert, Israel, during the autumns of 2000 and 2002. We manipulated water availability at the site and measured the effect of water supplementation on fuel deposition of birds of both species. We found that when water was available, blackcaps had higher fuel loads and higher fuel deposition rates than during control trials. However, water availability had no effect on fuel deposition of lesser whitethroats. Species-specific differences in adaptations to arid conditions, reflected in the species' winter habitat preferences, may be responsible for the between-species dissimilarity in responding to water provision. We suggest that water availability may have strong ecological and evolutionary consequences for birds migrating through arid environments, by its possible effect on bird behavior and physiology.     

The effect of water availability on fuel deposition of two staging Sylvia warblers

In order to succeed in crossing extensive ecological barriers, migratory birds usually deposit fuel en route. High rates of fuel deposition may enable birds to shorten their total migration time and are therefore advantageous for time‐minimizing migrants. Several studies have suggested that water provision may increase food utilization in non‐migratory birds. The goal of this study was to test the influence of water availability on the fuel deposition of en route migratory passerines. We studied fuel deposition of blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla and lesser whitethroats S. curruca staging in a plantation of Mount Atlas gum‐tree Pistacia atlantica in the northern Negev desert, Israel, during the autumns of 2000 and 2002. We manipulated water availability at the site and measured the effect of water supplementation on fuel deposition of birds of both species. We found that when water was available, blackcaps had higher fuel loads and higher fuel deposition rates than during control trials. However, water availability had no effect on fuel deposition of lesser whitethroats. Species‐specific differences in adaptations to arid conditions, reflected in the species’ winter habitat preferences, may be responsible for the between‐species dissimilarity in responding to water provision. We suggest that water availability may have strong ecological and evolutionary consequences for birds migrating through arid environments, by its possible effect on bird behavior and physiology.     

South temperate birds have higher apparent adult survival than tropical birds in Africa

Life history theory predicts an inverse relationship between annual adult survival and fecundity. Globally, clutch size shows a latitudinal gradient among birds, with south temperate species laying smaller clutches than north temperate species, but larger clutches than tropical species. Tropical birds often have higher adult survival than north temperate birds associated with their smaller clutches. However, the prediction that tropical birds should also have higher adult survival than south temperate birds because of smaller clutch sizes remains largely untested. We measured clutch size and apparent annual breeding adult survival for 17 south temperate African species to test two main predictions. First, we found strong support for a predicted inverse relationship between adult survival and clutch size among the south temperate species, consistent with life‐history theory. Second, we compared our clutch size and survival estimates with published estimates for congeneric tropical African species to test the prediction of larger clutch size and lower adult survival among south temperate than related tropical species. We found that south‐temperate species laid larger clutches, as predicted, but had higher, rather than lower, apparent adult survival than related tropical species. The latter result may be an artefact of different approaches to measuring survival, but the results suggest that adult survival is generally high in the south temperate region and raises questions about the importance of the cost of reproduction to adult survival.     

Historical diversification of migration patterns in a passerine bird

Migratory strategies of birds require complex orientation mechanisms, morphological adaptations, and life-history adjustments. From an evolutionary perspective, it is important to know how fast this complex combination of traits can evolve. We analyzed mitochondrial control-region DNA sequences in 241 blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) from 12 populations with different migratory behaviors. The sample included sedentary populations in Europe and Atlantic archipelagos and migratory populations with different distances of migration, from regional to intercontinental migrations, and different heading directions (due to a migratory divide in central Europe). There was no genetic structure between migratory and sedentary populations, or among populations from different biogeographic areas (Atlantic islands, the Iberian Peninsula, or the continent), however we found evidence of a genetic structure when comparing populations located on either side of the migratory divide. These findings support an independent evolution of highly divergent migratory strategies in blackcaps, occurring after a postglacial colonization of the continent along western and eastern routes. Accordingly, mismatch-distribution analyses suggested an expansion of blackcaps from a very small population size, and time estimates dated such an expansion during the last postglacial period. However, the populations in Gibraltar, located in a putative Mediterranean refuge, appeared to be independent of these processes, showing evidence of restricted gene flow with other populations and demonstrating insignificant historical changes in effective population size. Our results show that the interruption of gene flow between migratory and sedentary populations is not necessary for the maintenance of such a polymorphism, and that even the most divergent migratory strategies of a bird species are susceptible to evolution in response to historical environmental changes.     

The decline of a peripheral population of the European robin Erithacus rubecula

This paper examines the potential effect of some factors involved in the decline of a winter population of the European robin Erithacus rubecula in southern Spain. The area receives extra‐Iberian immigrants that come into contact with resident conspecifics. Given this interspersed distribution, three hypotheses were tested to explain the decline: a) the depletion of the carrying capacity of the area during winter, b) the decline of the resident population, and c) the reduction of foreign individuals in this wintering area. Winter robin and fruit (a main winter food) abundances were assessed at 43 sites from 1999 to 2014, and the abundance of breeding robins was evaluated from 1998 to 2012. Rainfall and temperatures were recorded throughout this period and changes in forests occupied by breeding robins were assessed in 1999 and 2013. Results showed a decline in winter temperatures and an increase in fruit availability. Given that food increases could buffer the thermoregulatory costs of colder conditions, the depletion of the carrying capacity of the area was discarded as a main driver of robin decline. Spring counts showed a reduction of 45% in the breeding population that was not explained by changes in forest management. However, a significant increase in summer temperatures could boost the pervasive effect of drought on robins inhabiting this marginal area of the species' range. Foreign immigrants, despite the increase in breeding populations in most of Europe, did not buffer the decline caused by the reduction of residents. In fact, an analysis of ring recoveries reported in this area depicted a sharp decrease in extra‐Iberian wintering individuals. These results may be related to the effect of global warming on migratory schedules (the northwards retreat of wintering areas) and on the suitability for robins of local habitats in this peripheral region of the Palaearctic.