Estimated HIV Trends and Program Effects in Botswana

Background

This study uses surveillance, survey and program data to estimate past trends and current levels of HIV in Botswana and the effects of treatment and prevention programs.

Methods/Principal Findings

Data from sentinel surveillance at antenatal clinics and a national population survey were used to estimate the trend of adult HIV prevalence from 1980 to 2007. Using the prevalence trend we estimated the number of new adult infections, the transmission from mothers to children, the need for treatment and the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and adult and child deaths. Prevalence has declined slowly in urban areas since 2000 and has remained stable in rural areas. National prevalence is estimated at 26% (25–27%) in 2007. About 330,000 (318,000–335,000) people are infected with HIV including 20,000 children. The number of new adult infections has been stable for several years at about 20,000 annually (12,000–26,000). The number of new child infections has declined from 4600 in 1999 to about 890 (810–980) today due to nearly complete coverage of an effective program to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). The annual number of adult deaths has declined from a peak of over 15,500 in 2003 to under 7400 (5000–11,000) today due to coverage of ART that reaches over 80% in need. The need for ART will increase by 60% by 2016.

Conclusions

Botswana''s PMTCT and treatment programs have achieved significant results in preventing new child infections and deaths among adults and children. The number of new adult infections continues at a high level. More effective prevention efforts are urgently needed.     

Apoptosis and Autophagy in Breast Cancer Cells following Exemestane Treatment

Aromatase inhibitors (AIs), which block the conversion of androgens to estrogens, are used for hormone-dependent breast cancer treatment. Exemestane, a steroidal that belongs to the third-generation of AIs, is a mechanism-based inhibitor that binds covalently and irreversibly, inactivating and destabilizing aromatase. Since the biological effects of exemestane in breast cancer cells are not totally understood, its effects on cell viability, cell proliferation and mechanisms of cell death were studied in an ER-positive aromatase-overexpressing breast cancer cell line (MCF-7aro). The effects of 3-methyladenine (3-MA), an inhibitor of autophagy and of ZVAD-FMK, an apoptotic inhibitor, in exemestane treated cells were also investigated. Our results indicate that exemestane induces a strong inhibition in MCF-7aro cell proliferation in a dose- and time-dependent manner, promoting a significant cell cycle arrest in G(0)/G1 or in G(2)/M phases after 3 and 6 days of treatment, respectively. This was accompanied by a decrease in cell viability due to activation of cell death by apoptosis, via mitochondrial pathway and the occurrence of autophagy. Inhibition of autophagy by the autophagic inhibitor, 3-MA, resulted in a reduction of cell viability and activation of caspases. All together the results obtained suggest that exemestane induced mitochondrial-mediated apoptosis and autophagy, which act as a pro-survival process regulating breast cancer cell apoptosis.     

Incidence and Associated Factors of HIV Drug Resistance in Chinese HIV-Infected Patients Receiving Antiretroviral Treatment

Background

A critical indicator of the future success of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is the incidence of HIV drug resistance, which has not been studied in China on the national scale.

Methods

HIV drug resistance baseline survey was conducted in the eight provinces with the largest numbers of patients on HAART in 2009, and a prospective cohort study with 12-month follow-up was completed in 2010. Patients completed an interviewer-administrated questionnaire and provided blood for CD4+ T-lymphocyte count (CD4 count), HIV viral load (VL), and HIV drug resistance genotyping. Factors associated with incidence of HIVDR were identified by Cox regression analysis.

Results

The overall prevalence of HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/ml and HIVDR at baseline was 12.4% and 5.6%, respectively. Incidence of HIVDR in the one year follow-up was 3.5 per 100 person years. Independently associated factors were started treatment with a didanosine-based regimen, received care at township hospital or village clinic, low baseline CD4 counts, and high baseline VL.

Conclusions

The incidence of HIVDR in China was higher than that of some developed countries. China urgently needs to provide comprehensive education and training to doctors at village clinics and township hospitals to improve quality community-based care and treatment.     

Abstain or die: the development of HIV/AIDS policy in Botswana

This paper traces the development of policies dealing with HIV/AIDS in Botswana from their beginning in the late 1980s to the current programme to provide population-wide anti-retroviral therapy (ARV). Using a variety of source material, including long-term ethnographic research, it seeks to account for the failure of Western-inspired approaches in dealing with the pandemic. It does this by looking at the cultural and institutional features that have created resistance to the message and inhibited effective implementation. The negative response to the first educational campaign stressing condom use is described and contextualized in terms of Tswana ideas of morality and illness. Nor, as was initially expected, did the introduction of free ARV therapy operate to break the silence and stigma that had developed around the disease. Take-up was very slow, and did not operate to encourage widespread testing. In 2003, key policymakers in Botswana began to argue for a break with the AIDS 'exceptionalism' position, with its emphasis on voluntarism, confidentiality and the human rights of patients. This resulted in routine testing being introduced in 2004. This links to a major argument running through the paper which is that the failure of policy cannot be attributed solely to the nature of local populations. Western cultural assumptions about 'good practice' also require critical examination.     

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Botswana: an ethical perspective on mandatory testing

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV represents a particularly dramatic aspect of the HIV epidemic with an estimated 600,000 newborns infected yearly, 90% of them living in sub-Saharan Africa. Since the beginning of the HIV epidemic, an estimated 5.1 million children worldwide have been infected with HIV. MTCT is responsible for 90% of these infections. Two-thirds of the MTCT are believed to occur during pregnancy and delivery, and about one-third through breastfeeding. As the number of women of child bearing age infected with HIV rises, so does the number of infected children. It is apparent that voluntary testing in Botswana has made some valuable inroads in decreasing perinatal HIV transmission, but the statistics showing the increased rate of HIV infection among women 15-24 years of age are not very promising. After reviewing all the pertinent scientific data it is clear that mandatory HIV testing of all pregnant women in conjunction with the implementation of a full package of interventions would save thousands of lives -- mothers, newborns and others who could be infected as a result of these women not being aware of their HIV status. If the protection and preservation of human life is a priority in Botswana, then it is time to allow for mandatory HIV testing of all pregnant women, before it is too late for those who are the most vulnerable. To do less would be medically inappropriate and ethically irresponsible.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

Background

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

Methods and Findings

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

Conclusions

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Interaction between HIV awareness, knowledge, safe sex practice and HIV prevalence: evidence from Botswana

This paper makes methodological and empirical contributions to the study of HIV in the context of Botswana, a country with high HIV prevalence. Comparable evidence is presented from India to put the Botswana results in perspective. The results point to the strong role played by affluence and education in increasing HIV knowledge, promoting safe sex and reducing HIV prevalence. The study presents African evidence on the role played by the empowerment of women in promoting safe sex practices such as condom use. The lack of significant association between HIV prevalence and safe sex practice points to the danger of HIV-infected individuals spreading the disease through multiple sex partners and unprotected sex. This danger is underlined by the finding that females with multiple sex partners are at higher risk of being infected with HIV. These results take on special policy significance in the context of Botswana, where the issue of multiple sex partners has not been adequately addressed in the programme to contain the spread of HIV.