Optimizing one-dose and two-dose cholera vaccine allocation in outbreak settings: A modeling study

BackgroundA global stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was established in 2013 for use in outbreak response and are licensed as two-dose regimens. Vaccine availability, however, remains limited. Previous studies have found that a single dose of OCV may provide substantial protection against cholera.MethodsUsing a mathematical model with two age groups paired with optimization algorithms, we determine the optimal vaccination strategy with one and two doses of vaccine to minimize cumulative overall infections, symptomatic infections, and deaths. We explore counterfactual vaccination scenarios in three distinct settings: Maela, the largest refugee camp in Thailand, with high in- and out-migration; N’Djamena, Chad, a densely populated region; and Haiti, where departments are connected by rivers and roads.ResultsOver the short term under limited vaccine supply, the optimal strategies for all objectives prioritize one dose to the older age group (over five years old), irrespective of setting and level of vaccination coverage. As more vaccine becomes available, it is optimal to administer a second dose for long-term protection. With enough vaccine to cover the whole population with one dose, the optimal strategies can avert up to 30% to 90% of deaths and 36% to 92% of symptomatic infections across the three settings over one year. The one-dose optimal strategies can avert 1.2 to 1.8 times as many cases and deaths compared to the standard two-dose strategy.ConclusionsIn an outbreak setting, speedy vaccination campaigns with a single dose of OCV is likely to avert more cases and deaths than a two-dose pro-rata campaign under a limited vaccine supply.     

Using Mobile Health (mHealth) and Geospatial Mapping Technology in a Mass Campaign for Reactive Oral Cholera Vaccination in Rural Haiti

Background

In mass vaccination campaigns, large volumes of data must be managed efficiently and accurately. In a reactive oral cholera vaccination (OCV) campaign in rural Haiti during an ongoing epidemic, we used a mobile health (mHealth) system to manage data on 50,000 participants in two isolated communities.

Methods

Data were collected using 7-inch tablets. Teams pre-registered and distributed vaccine cards with unique barcodes to vaccine-eligible residents during a census in February 2012. First stored on devices, data were uploaded nightly via Wi-fi to a web-hosted database. During the vaccination campaign between April and June 2012, residents presented their cards at vaccination posts and their barcodes were scanned. Vaccinee data from the census were pre-loaded on tablets to autopopulate the electronic form. Nightly analysis of the day''s community coverage informed the following day''s vaccination strategy. We generated case-finding reports allowing us to identify those who had not yet been vaccinated.

Results

During 40 days of vaccination, we collected approximately 1.9 million pieces of data. A total of 45,417 people received at least one OCV dose; of those, 90.8% were documented to have received 2 doses. Though mHealth required up-front financial investment and training, it reduced the need for paper registries and manual data entry, which would have been costly, time-consuming, and is known to increase error. Using Global Positioning System coordinates, we mapped vaccine posts, population size, and vaccine coverage to understand the reach of the campaign. The hardware and software were usable by high school-educated staff.

Conclusion

The use of mHealth technology in an OCV campaign in rural Haiti allowed timely creation of an electronic registry with population-level census data, and a targeted vaccination strategy in a dispersed rural population receiving a two-dose vaccine regimen. The use of mHealth should be strongly considered in mass vaccination campaigns in future initiatives.     

First Outbreak Response Using an Oral Cholera Vaccine in Africa: Vaccine Coverage,Acceptability and Surveillance of Adverse Events,Guinea, 2012

Background

Despite World Health Organization (WHO) prequalification of two safe and effective oral cholera vaccines (OCV), concerns about the acceptability, potential diversion of resources, cost and feasibility of implementing timely campaigns has discouraged their use. In 2012, the Ministry of Health of Guinea, with the support of Médecins Sans Frontières organized the first mass vaccination campaign using a two-dose OCV (Shanchol) as an additional control measure to respond to the on-going nationwide epidemic. Overall, 316,250 vaccines were delivered. Here, we present the results of vaccination coverage, acceptability and surveillance of adverse events.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We performed a cross-sectional cluster survey and implemented adverse event surveillance. The study population included individuals older than 12 months, eligible for vaccination, and residing in the areas targeted for vaccination (Forécariah and Boffa, Guinea). Data sources were household interviews with verification by vaccination card and notifications of adverse events from surveillance at vaccination posts and health centres. In total 5,248 people were included in the survey, 3,993 in Boffa and 1,255 in Forécariah. Overall, 89.4% [95%CI:86.4–91.8%] and 87.7% [95%CI:84.2–90.6%] were vaccinated during the first round and 79.8% [95%CI:75.6–83.4%] and 82.9% [95%CI:76.6–87.7%] during the second round in Boffa and Forécariah respectively. The two dose vaccine coverage (including card and oral reporting) was 75.8% [95%CI: 71.2–75.9%] in Boffa and 75.9% [95%CI: 69.8–80.9%] in Forécariah respectively. Vaccination coverage was higher in children. The main reason for non-vaccination was absence. No severe adverse events were notified.

Conclusions/Significance

The well-accepted mass vaccination campaign reached high coverage in a remote area with a mobile population. Although OCV should not be foreseen as the long-term solution for global cholera control, they should be integrated as an additional tool into the response.     

Costs of Illness Due to Cholera, Costs of Immunization and Cost-Effectiveness of an Oral Cholera Mass Vaccination Campaign in Zanzibar

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) as a supplementary tool to conventional prevention of cholera. Dukoral, a killed whole-cell two-dose OCV, was used in a mass vaccination campaign in 2009 in Zanzibar. Public and private costs of illness (COI) due to endemic cholera and costs of the mass vaccination campaign were estimated to assess the cost-effectiveness of OCV for this particular campaign from both the health care provider and the societal perspective.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Public and private COI were obtained from interviews with local experts, with patients from three outbreaks and from reports and record review. Cost data for the vaccination campaign were collected based on actual expenditure and planned budget data. A static cohort of 50,000 individuals was examined, including herd protection. Primary outcome measures were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per death, per case and per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. One-way sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted. The ICER was evaluated with regard to WHO criteria for cost-effectiveness. Base-case ICERs were USD 750,000 per death averted, USD 6,000 per case averted and USD 30,000 per DALY averted, without differences between the health care provider and the societal perspective. Threshold analyses using Shanchol and assuming high incidence and case-fatality rate indicated that the purchase price per course would have to be as low as USD 1.2 to render the mass vaccination campaign cost-effective from a health care provider perspective (societal perspective: USD 1.3).

Conclusions/Significance

Based on empirical and site-specific cost and effectiveness data from Zanzibar, the 2009 mass vaccination campaign was cost-ineffective mainly due to the relatively high OCV purchase price and a relatively low incidence. However, mass vaccination campaigns in Zanzibar to control endemic cholera may meet criteria for cost-effectiveness under certain circumstances, especially in high-incidence areas and at OCV prices below USD 1.3.     

Improving community coverage of oral cholera mass vaccination campaigns: lessons learned in zanzibar

Background

Recent research in two cholera-endemic communities of Zanzibar has shown that a majority (∼94%) of the adult population was willing to receive free oral cholera vaccines (OCVs). Since OCV uptake in the 2009 campaign reached only ∼50% in these communities, an evaluation of social and cultural factors and of barriers was conducted to understand this difference for future cholera control planning.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A random sample of 367 adult peri-urban and rural community residents (46.6% immunized vs. 53.4% unimmunized) was studied with a semi-structured interview that inquired about social and cultural features of cholera depicted in a vignette and barriers to OCV uptake. Symptoms (rectal pain, loose skin only in rural community) and perceived causes (uncovered food, contact with contaminated water) specific for severe diarrhea were associated with uptake. Purchasing drugs from pharmacies to stop diarrhea and vomiting was negatively associated with uptake. Increasing household size, age and previous enteric illness episode were positively related to uptake, the latter only at the rural site. The most prominent barrier to uptake was competing obligations or priorities (reported by 74.5%, identified as most important barrier by 49.5%). Next most prominent barriers were lacking information about the campaign (29.6%, 12.2%), sickness (14.3%, 13.3%) and fear of possible vaccine side effects (15.3%, 5.6%). The majority of unvaccinated respondents requested repetition of the vaccination with free OCVs.

Conclusions/Significance

Factors associated with uptake indicated a positive impact of the vaccination campaign and of sensitization activities on vaccine acceptance behavior. Unlike communities opposed to cholera control or settings where public confidence in vaccines is lacking, identified barriers to uptake indicated a good campaign implementation and trust in the health system. Despite prospects and demand for repeating the vaccination, local decision-makers should reconsider how careful logistical arrangements may improve community coverage and thus effectiveness of vaccination campaigns.     

Mass Vaccination with a New,Less Expensive Oral Cholera Vaccine Using Public Health Infrastructure in India: The Odisha Model

Introduction

The substantial morbidity and mortality associated with recent cholera outbreaks in Haiti and Zimbabwe, as well as with cholera endemicity in countries throughout Asia and Africa, make a compelling case for supplementary cholera control measures in addition to existing interventions. Clinical trials conducted in Kolkata, India, have led to World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalification of Shanchol, an oral cholera vaccine (OCV) with a demonstrated 65% efficacy at 5 years post-vaccination. However, before this vaccine is widely used in endemic areas or in areas at risk of outbreaks, as recommended by the WHO, policymakers will require empirical evidence on its implementation and delivery costs in public health programs. The objective of the present report is to describe the organization, vaccine coverage, and delivery costs of mass vaccination with a new, less expensive OCV (Shanchol) using existing public health infrastructure in Odisha, India, as a model.

Methods

All healthy, non-pregnant residents aged 1 year and above residing in selected villages of the Satyabadi block (Puri district, Odisha, India) were invited to participate in a mass vaccination campaign using two doses of OCV. Prior to the campaign, a de jure census, micro-planning for vaccination and social mobilization activities were implemented. Vaccine coverage for each dose was ascertained as a percentage of the censused population. The direct vaccine delivery costs were estimated by reviewing project expenditure records and by interviewing key personnel.

Results

The mass vaccination was conducted during May and June, 2011, in two phases. In each phase, two vaccine doses were given 14 days apart. Sixty-two vaccination booths, staffed by 395 health workers/volunteers, were established in the community. For the censused population, 31,552 persons (61% of the target population) received the first dose and 23,751 (46%) of these completed their second dose, with a drop-out rate of 25% between the two doses. Higher coverage was observed among females and among 6–17 year-olds. Vaccine cost at market price (about US$1.85/dose) was the costliest item. The vaccine delivery cost was $0.49 per dose or $1.13 per fully vaccinated person.

Discussion

This is the first undertaken project to collect empirical evidence on the use of Shanchol within a mass vaccination campaign using existing public health program resources. Our findings suggest that mass vaccination is feasible but requires detailed micro-planning. The vaccine and delivery cost is affordable for resource poor countries. Given that the vaccine is now WHO pre-qualified, evidence from this study should encourage oral cholera vaccine use in countries where cholera remains a public health problem.     

Cluster Survey Evaluation of a Measles Vaccination Campaign in Jharkhand,India, 2012

IntroductionIndia was the last country in the world to implement a two-dose strategy for measles-containing vaccine (MCV) in 2010. As part of measles second-dose introduction, phased measles vaccination campaigns were conducted during 2010–2013, targeting 131 million children 9 months to <10 years of age. We performed a post-campaign coverage survey to estimate measles vaccination coverage in Jharkhand state.MethodsA multi-stage cluster survey was conducted 2 months after the phase 2 measles campaign occurred in 19 of 24 districts of Jharkhand during November 2011–March 2012. Vaccination status of children 9 months to <10 years of age was documented based on vaccination card or mother’s recall. Coverage estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for 1,018 children were calculated using survey methods.ResultsIn the Jharkhand phase 2 campaign, MCV coverage among children aged 9 months to <10 years was 61.0% (95% CI: 54.4–67.7%). Significant differences in coverage were observed between rural (65.0%; 95% CI: 56.8–73.2%) and urban areas (45.6%; 95% CI: 37.3–53.9%). Campaign awareness among mothers was low (51.5%), and the most commonly reported reason for non-vaccination was being unaware of the campaign (69.4%). At the end of the campaign, 53.7% (95% CI: 46.5–60.9%) of children 12 months to <10 years of age received ≥2 MCV doses, while a large proportion of children remained under-vaccinated (34.0%, 95% CI: 28.0–40.0%) or unvaccinated (12.3%, 95% CI: 9.3–16.2%).ConclusionsImplementation of the national measles campaign was a significant achievement towards measles elimination in India. In Jharkhand, campaign performance was below the target coverage of ≥90% set by the Government of India, and challenges in disseminating campaign messages were identified. Efforts towards increasing two-dose MCV coverage are needed to achieve the recently adopted measles elimination goal in India and the South-East Asia region.     

Safety and immunogenicity of a monovalent MF59®-adjuvanted A/H1N1 vaccine in HIV-infected children and young adults

BackgroundThis Phase IV study evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of a two-dose, MF59^®-adjuvanted (Novartis Vaccines, Marburg, Germany), monovalent, A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination schedule in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) positive children and young adults.MethodsA total of 83 children infected with HIV-1, and 37 non-immunocompromised, age-matched controls were enrolled. All participants received two vaccine doses administered three weeks apart. Antibody responses were assessed by haemagglutination assay at baseline, three weeks after each vaccine dose, and six months after immunization. Vaccines were evaluated according to European influenza vaccine licensure criteria.ResultsThe investigational vaccine was well tolerated. After the first vaccine dose, seroconversion rates were significantly lower in HIV-positive patients (60%) than controls (82%), with GMTs of 419 and 600, respectively. No significant differences in seroconversion rates were observed between the two study groups in response to the second vaccine dose. Persisting antibody titers were similar for both HIV-positive and non-infected controls, six months after immunization.ConclusionOne dose of MF59-adjuvanted vaccine was sufficient to provide adequate levels of seroprotection against A/H1N1 influenza disease in HIV-positive children. However, a two-dose vaccination schedule may be optimal for this population.     

Flexibility of Oral Cholera Vaccine Dosing—A Randomized Controlled Trial Measuring Immune Responses Following Alternative Vaccination Schedules in a Cholera Hyper-Endemic Zone

BackgroundA bivalent killed whole cell oral cholera vaccine has been found to be safe and efficacious for five years in the cholera endemic setting of Kolkata, India, when given in a two dose schedule, two weeks apart. A randomized controlled trial revealed that the immune response was not significantly increased following the second dose compared to that after the first dose. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an extended four week dosing schedule on vibriocidal response.Conclusions/SignificanceComparable immune responses and safety profiles between the two dosing schedules support the option for increased flexibility of current OCV dosing. Further operational research using a longer dosing regimen will provide answers to improve implementation and delivery of cholera vaccination in endemic and epidemic outbreak scenarios.     

Knowledge,Attitudes, and Practices regarding Diarrhea and Cholera following an Oral Cholera Vaccination Campaign in the Solomon Islands

BackgroundIn response to a 2011 cholera outbreak in Papua New Guinea, the Government of the Solomon Islands initiated a cholera prevention program which included cholera disease prevention and treatment messaging, community meetings, and a pre-emptive cholera vaccination campaign targeting 11,000 children aged 1–15 years in selected communities in Choiseul and Western Provinces.ConclusionsThis pre-emptive OCV campaign in a cholera-naïve community provided a unique opportunity to assess household-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding diarrhea, cholera, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). Our findings suggest that education provided during the vaccination campaign may have reinforced earlier mass messaging about cholera and diarrheal disease in vaccinated communities.     

An Open Label Non-inferiority Trial Assessing Vibriocidal Response of a Killed Bivalent Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen following a Five Year Interval in Kolkata,India

Background

The bivalent killed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) provides 65% cumulative protection over five years. It remains unknown whether a boosting regimen can maintain protection in previously immunized populations. This study examines the immunogenicity and safety of an OCV regimen given five years following initial dosing.

Methodology/Principal Findings

An open label controlled trial was conducted in 426 healthy Indian participants previously enrolled in a large efficacy trial. To assess whether an OCV regimen given after five years can elicit an antibody response equal to that of a primary series, we compared vibriocidal antibody titers in previously immunized participants receiving a two dose booster regimen to participants receiving a primary two dose immunization series. Among participants receiving a two dose primary series of OCV (n = 186), 69% (95% CI 62%-76%) seroconverted. In the intervention arm (n = 184), 66% (95% CI 59%-73%) seroconverted following a two dose boosting schedule given five years following the initial series. Following a single boosting dose, 71% (95% CI 64%-77%) seroconverted. Children demonstrated 79% (95% CI 69%-86%) and 82% (95% CI 73%-88%) seroconversion after primary and boosting regimens, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

Administration of an OCV boosting regimen elicits an immune response similar to those receiving a primary series in endemic areas. Though a single boosting dose induces a strong immune response, further investigations are needed to measure if these findings translate to clinical protection.     

An Estimation of Private Household Costs to Receive Free Oral Cholera Vaccine in Odisha,India

BackgroundService provider costs for vaccine delivery have been well documented; however, vaccine recipients’ costs have drawn less attention. This research explores the private household out-of-pocket and opportunity costs incurred to receive free oral cholera vaccine during a mass vaccination campaign in rural Odisha, India.MethodsFollowing a government-driven oral cholera mass vaccination campaign targeting population over one year of age, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted to estimate private household costs among vaccine recipients. The questionnaire captured travel costs as well as time and wage loss for self and accompanying persons. The productivity loss was estimated using three methods: self-reported, government defined minimum daily wages and gross domestic product per capita in Odisha.FindingsOn average, families were located 282.7 (SD = 254.5) meters from the nearest vaccination booths. Most family members either walked or bicycled to the vaccination sites and spent on average 26.5 minutes on travel and 15.7 minutes on waiting. Depending upon the methodology, the estimated productivity loss due to potential foregone income ranged from $0.15 to $0.29 per dose of cholera vaccine received. The private household cost of receiving oral cholera vaccine constituted 24.6% to 38.0% of overall vaccine delivery costs.InterpretationThe private household costs resulting from productivity loss for receiving a free oral cholera vaccine is a substantial proportion of overall vaccine delivery cost and may influence vaccine uptake. Policy makers and program managers need to recognize the importance of private costs and consider how to balance programmatic delivery costs with private household costs to receive vaccines.     

Pregnancy Outcomes after a Mass Vaccination Campaign with an Oral Cholera Vaccine in Guinea: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction

Since 2010, WHO has recommended oral cholera vaccines as an additional strategy for cholera control. During a cholera episode, pregnant women are at high risk of complications, and the risk of fetal death has been reported to be 2–36%. Due to a lack of safety data, pregnant women have been excluded from most cholera vaccination campaigns. In 2012, reactive campaigns using the bivalent killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine (BivWC), included all people living in the targeted areas aged ≥1 year regardless of pregnancy status, were implemented in Guinea. We aimed to determine whether there was a difference in pregnancy outcomes between vaccinated and non-vaccinated pregnant women.

Methods and Findings

From 11 November to 4 December 2013, we conducted a retrospective cohort study in Boffa prefecture among women who were pregnant in 2012 during or after the vaccination campaign. The primary outcome was pregnancy loss, as reported by the mother, and fetal malformations, after clinical examination. Primary exposure was the intake of the BivWC vaccine (Shanchol) during pregnancy, as determined by a vaccination card or oral history. We compared the risk of pregnancy loss between vaccinated and non-vaccinated women through binomial regression analysis. A total of 2,494 pregnancies were included in the analysis. The crude incidence of pregnancy loss was 3.7% (95%CI 2.7–4.8) for fetuses exposed to BivWC vaccine and 2.6% (0.7–4.5) for non-exposed fetuses. The incidence of malformation was 0.6% (0.1–1.0) and 1.2% (0.0–2.5) in BivWC-exposed and non-exposed fetuses, respectively. In both crude and adjusted analyses, fetal exposure to BivWC was not significantly associated with pregnancy loss (adjusted risk ratio (aRR = 1.09 [95%CI: 0.5–2.25], p = 0.818) or malformations (aRR = 0.50 [95%CI: 0.13–1.91], p = 0.314).

Conclusions

In this large retrospective cohort study, we found no association between fetal exposure to BivWC and risk of pregnancy loss or malformation. Despite the weaknesses of a retrospective design, we can conclude that if a risk exists, it is very low. Additional prospective studies are warranted to add to the evidence base on OCV use during pregnancy. Pregnant women are particularly vulnerable during cholera episodes and should be included in vaccination campaigns when the risk of cholera is high, such as during outbreaks.     

Involvement of Endocrinologists in the 2009 to 2010 H1N1 Vaccination Effort

ObjectiveTo assess the level of participation of endo crinologists in the United States in the 2009 to 2010 H1N1 vaccination campaign and explore their perspectives on H1N1 vaccination.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional, mailed survey of a national sample of 1,991 endocrinologists in June through September 2010. The extent of the response and the survey responses are reported and analyzed.ResultsThe overall response rate was 59%. The majority of endocrinologists strongly recommended H1N1 vaccine for children, whereas about a third did so for both nonelderly adults and seniors. Just over half (52%) of the responding endocrinologists had agreed to participate in the 2009 to 2010 H1N1 vaccine campaign and received vaccine, in comparison with 73% who offered seasonal influenza vaccine. The supply of H1N1 vaccine was a sig nificant challenge, but otherwise endocrinologists reported few major problems with administration of H1N1 vaccine. Overall, less than half of the respondents thought that they would be “very likely” to provide vaccine in the event of a future influenza pandemic, with a much higher proportion among those endocrinologists who offered seasonal influenza vaccine and H1N1 vaccine.ConclusionAlthough the experiences of endocri nologists who provided H1N1 vaccine were generally positive, many did not offer the vaccine and indicated that they are hesitant about providing vaccine during a future influenza pandemic. Approaches to increase their participation in future pandemics in an effort to reach persons at high risk for influenza and its complications, such as those with diabetes, should be further explored. (Endocr Pract. 2012;18:464-471)     

Use of oral cholera vaccines in an outbreak in Vietnam: a case control study

Background

Killed oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are available but not used routinely for cholera control except in Vietnam, which produces its own vaccine. In 2007–2008, unprecedented cholera outbreaks occurred in the capital, Hanoi, prompting immunization in two districts. In an outbreak investigation, we assessed the effectiveness of killed OCV use after a cholera outbreak began.

Methodology/Principal Findings

From 16 to 28 January 2008, vaccination campaigns with the Vietnamese killed OCV were held in two districts of Hanoi. No cholera cases were detected from 5 February to 4 March 2008, after which cases were again identified. Beginning 8 April 2008, residents of four districts of Hanoi admitted to one of five hospitals for acute diarrhea with onset after 5 March 2008 were recruited for a matched, hospital-based, case-control outbreak investigation. Cases were matched by hospital, admission date, district, gender, and age to controls admitted for non-diarrheal conditions. Subjects from the two vaccinated districts were evaluated to determine vaccine effectiveness. 54 case-control pairs from the vaccinated districts were included in the analysis. There were 8 (15%) and 16 (30%) vaccine recipients among cases and controls, respectively. The vaccine was 76% protective against cholera in this setting (95% CI 5% to 94%, P = 0.042) after adjusting for intake of dog meat or raw vegetables and not drinking boiled or bottled water most of the time.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first study to explore the effectiveness of the reactive use of killed OCVs during a cholera outbreak. Our findings suggest that killed OCVs may have a role in controlling cholera outbreaks.     

Routine Pediatric Enterovirus 71 Vaccination in China: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BackgroundChina accounted for 87% (9.8 million/11.3 million) of all hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) cases reported to WHO during 2010–2014. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is responsible for most of the severe HFMD cases. Three EV71 vaccines recently demonstrated good efficacy in children aged 6–71 mo. Here we assessed the cost-effectiveness of routine pediatric EV71 vaccination in China.ConclusionsCompared to no vaccination, routine pediatric EV71 vaccination would be very cost-effective in China if the cost of immunization (including all logistical, procurement, and administration costs needed to confer 5 y of vaccine protection) is below US$12.0–US$18.3, depending on the choice of vaccine among the three candidates. Given that the annual number of births in China has been around 16 million in recent years, the annual costs for routine pediatric EV71 vaccination at this cost range should not exceed US$192–US$293 million. Our results can be used to determine the optimal vaccine when the prices of the three vaccines are known.     

The case for reactive mass oral cholera vaccinations

Introduction

The outbreak of cholera in Zimbabwe intensified interest in the control and prevention of cholera. While there is agreement that safe water, sanitation, and personal hygiene are ideal for the long term control of cholera, there is controversy about the role of newer approaches such as oral cholera vaccines (OCVs). In October 2009 the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts advised the World Health Organization to consider reactive vaccination campaigns in response to large cholera outbreaks. To evaluate the potential benefit of this pivotal change in WHO policy, we used existing data from cholera outbreaks to simulate the number of cholera cases preventable by reactive mass vaccination.

Methods

Datasets of cholera outbreaks from three sites with varying cholera endemicity—Zimbabwe, Kolkata (India), and Zanzibar (Tanzania)—were analysed to estimate the number of cholera cases preventable under differing response times, vaccine coverage, and vaccine doses.

Findings

The large cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe started in mid August 2008 and by July 2009, 98,591 cholera cases had been reported with 4,288 deaths attributed to cholera. If a rapid response had taken place and half of the population had been vaccinated once the first 400 cases had occurred, as many as 34,900 (40%) cholera cases and 1,695 deaths (40%) could have been prevented. In the sites with endemic cholera, Kolkata and Zanzibar, a significant number of cases could have been prevented but the impact would have been less dramatic. A brisk response is required for outbreaks with the majority of cases occurring during the early weeks. Even a delayed response can save a substantial number of cases and deaths in long, drawn-out outbreaks. If circumstances prevent a rapid response there are good reasons to roll out cholera mass vaccination campaigns well into the outbreak. Once a substantial proportion of a population is vaccinated, outbreaks in subsequent years may be reduced if not prevented. A single dose vaccine would be of advantage in short, small outbreaks.

Conclusions

We show that reactive vaccine use can prevent cholera cases and is a rational response to cholera outbreaks in endemic and non-endemic settings. In large and long outbreaks a reactive vaccination with a two-dose vaccine can prevent a substantial proportion of cases. To make mass vaccination campaigns successful, it would be essential to agree when to implement reactive vaccination campaigns and to have a dynamic and determined response team that is familiar with the logistic challenges on standby. Most importantly, the decision makers in donor and recipient countries have to be convinced of the benefit of reactive cholera vaccinations.     

Aerosolized adenovirus-vectored vaccine as an alternative vaccine delivery method

Conventional parenteral injection of vaccines is limited in its ability to induce locally-produced immune responses in the respiratory tract, and has logistical disadvantages in widespread vaccine administration. Recent studies suggest that intranasal delivery or vaccination in the respiratory tract with recombinant viral vectors can enhance immunogenicity and protection against respiratory diseases such as influenza and tuberculosis, and can offer more broad-based generalized protection by eliciting durable mucosal immune responses. Controlled aerosolization is a method to minimize vaccine particle size and ensure delivery to the lower respiratory tract. Here, we characterize the dynamics of aerosolization and show the effects of vaccine concentration on particle size, vector viability, and the actual delivered dose of an aerosolized adenoviral vector. In addition, we demonstrate that aerosol delivery of a recombinant adenoviral vaccine encoding H1N1 hemagglutinin is immunogenic and protects ferrets against homologous viral challenge. Overall, aerosol delivery offers comparable protection to intramuscular injection, and represents an attractive vaccine delivery method for broad-based immunization campaigns.     

Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study

BackgroundCrimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a highly pathogenic virus for which a safe and effective vaccine is not yet available, despite being considered a priority emerging pathogen. Understanding transmission patterns and the use of potential effective vaccines are central elements of the future plan against this infection.MethodsWe developed a series of models of transmission amongst livestock, and spillover infection into humans. We use real-world human and animal data from a CCHFV endemic area in Afghanistan (Herat) to calibrate our models. We assess the value of environmental drivers as proxy indicators of vector activity, and select the best model using deviance information criteria. Finally we assess the impact of vaccination by simulating campaigns targeted to humans or livestock, and to high-risk subpopulations (i.e, farmers).FindingsSaturation deficit is the indicator that better explains tick activity trends in Herat. Recent increments in reported CCHFV cases in this area are more likely explained by increased surveillance capacity instead of changes in the background transmission dynamics. Modelling suggests that clinical cases only represent 31% (95% CrI 28%-33%) of total infections in this area. Vaccination campaigns targeting humans would result in a much larger impact than livestock vaccination (266 vs 31 clinical cases averted respectively) and a more efficient option when assessed in courses per case averted (35 vs 431 respectively). Targeted vaccination of farmers is impactful and more efficient, resulting in 19 courses per case averted (95% CrI 7–62) compared to targeting the general population (35 courses 95% CrI 16–107)ConclusionsCCHFV is endemic in Herat, and transmission cycles are well predicted by environmental drivers like saturation deficit. Vaccinating humans is likely to be more efficient and impactful than animals, and importantly targeted interventions to high risk groups like farmers can offer a more efficient approach to vaccine roll-out.     

The eradication of muskrats and coypus from Britain

Introduced vertebrates can cause massive environmental damage but most attempts to remove feral populations have failed. This paper discusses the eradication campaigns against feral muskrats, Ondatra Zibethicus and coypus, Myocastor coypus in Britain. Both specks were introduced in the 1920s to be farmed for pelts and feral populations became established following escapes. The risk of environmental damage by muskrats was well known from Europe and;in eradication campaign started promptly in 1932 making use of overseas expertise and a control strategy designed by pest control specialists. The campaign was brought to a successful conclusion in 1939 when at least 4388 muskrats had been killed.
In the 1930s, few believed that coypus would cause significant environment damage and early trapping efforts were inadequate. An early campaign achieved only limited success partly because of the lack of biological information. The eradication campaign which started in 1981, was based on a long tem study of population ecology. The effect of trapping and cold weather was quantified and detailed population simulations were used to plan the numbers of trappers, the time needed for eradication arid thus the likely cost of the campaign. An incentive bonus scheme was designed to overcome the problem that trappers would be reluctant to work themselves out of a job. Trapper deployment was planned using capture/trapping effort ratios and progress was checked by Ministry of Agriculture field staff.
The muskrat campaigns succeeded because technical information to help plan the work was available and because action was taken quickly. Where an introduced population is well established, as with coypus in Britain, a closely integrated programme involving applied population ecology and a well-planned control organization may he essential for succesful removal.