Larger brains spur species diversification in birds

Evidence is accumulating that species traits can spur their evolutionary diversification by influencing niche shifts, range expansions, and extinction risk. Previous work has shown that larger brains (relative to body size) facilitate niche shifts and range expansions by enhancing behavioral plasticity but whether larger brains also promote evolutionary diversification is currently backed by insufficient evidence. We addressed this gap by combining a brain size dataset for >1900 avian species worldwide with estimates of diversification rates based on two conceptually different phylogenetic‐based approaches. We found consistent evidence that lineages with larger brains (relative to body size) have diversified faster than lineages with relatively smaller brains. The best supported trait‐dependent model suggests that brain size primarily affects diversification rates by increasing speciation rather than decreasing extinction rates. In addition, we found that the effect of relatively brain size on species‐level diversification rate is additive to the effect of other intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Altogether, our results highlight the importance of brain size as an important factor in evolution and reinforce the view that intrinsic features of species have the potential to influence the pace of evolution.     

Evolutionary diversification of reef corals: a comparison of the molecular and fossil records

Understanding historical patterns of diversity dynamics is of paramount importance for many evolutionary questions. The fossil record has long been the only source of information on patterns of diversification, but the molecular record, derived from time-calibrated phylogenies, is becoming an important additional resource. Both fossil and molecular approaches have shortcomings and biases. These have been well studied for fossil data but much less so for molecular data and empirical comparisons between approaches are lacking. Here, we compare the patterns of diversification derived from fossil and molecular data in scleractinian reef coral species. We also assess the robustness of molecular diversification rates to poor taxon sampling. We find that the temporal pattern of molecular diversification rates is robust to incomplete sampling when rates are calculated per interval. The major obstacle of molecular methods is that rate estimates are distorted because diversification rates can never be negative, whereas the fossil record suffers from incomplete preservation and inconsistent taxonomy. Nevertheless, the molecular pattern of diversification is comparable to the pattern we observe in the fossil record, with the timing of major diversification pulses coinciding in each dataset. For example, both agree that the end-Triassic coral extinction was a catastrophic bottleneck in scleractinian evolution.     

Bias in phylogenetic measurements of extinction and a case study of end‐Permian tetrapods

Extinction risk in the modern world and extinction in the geological past are often linked to aspects of life history or other facets of biology that are phylogenetically conserved within clades. These links can result in phylogenetic clustering of extinction, a measurement comparable across different clades and time periods that can be made in the absence of detailed trait data. This phylogenetic approach is particularly suitable for vertebrate taxa, which often have fragmentary fossil records, but robust, cladistically‐inferred trees. Here we use simulations to investigate the adequacy of measures of phylogenetic clustering of extinction when applied to phylogenies of fossil taxa while assuming a Brownian motion model of trait evolution. We characterize expected biases under a variety of evolutionary and analytical scenarios. Recovery of accurate estimates of extinction clustering depends heavily on the sampling rate, and results can be highly variable across topologies. Clustering is often underestimated at low sampling rates, whereas at high sampling rates it is always overestimated. Sampling rate dictates which cladogram timescaling method will produce the most accurate results, as well as how much of a bias ancestor–descendant pairs introduce. We illustrate this approach by applying two phylogenetic metrics of extinction clustering (Fritz and Purvis's D and Moran's I) to three tetrapod clades across an interval including the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction event. These groups consistently show phylogenetic clustering of extinction, unrelated to change in other quantitative metrics such as taxonomic diversity or extinction intensity.     

Systematics and evolution of the Pan‐Alcidae (Aves,Charadriiformes)

Puffins, auks and their allies in the wing‐propelled diving seabird clade Pan‐Alcidae (Charadriiformes) have been proposed to be key pelagic indicators of faunal shifts in Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, most previous phylogenetic analyses of the clade have focused only on the 23 extant alcid species. Here we undertake a combined phylogenetic analysis of all previously published molecular sequence data (～ 12 kb) and morphological data (n = 353 characters) with dense species level sampling that also includes 28 extinct taxa. We present a new estimate of the patterns of diversification in the clade based on divergence time estimates that include a previously vetted set of twelve fossil calibrations. The resultant time trees are also used in the evaluation of previously hypothesized paleoclimatic drivers of pan‐alcid evolution. Our divergence dating results estimate the split of Alcidae from its sister taxon Stercorariidae during the late Eocene (～ 35 Ma), an evolutionary hypothesis for clade origination that agrees with the fossil record and that does not require the inference of extensive ghost lineages. The extant dovekie Alle alle is identified as the sole extant member of a clade including four extinct Miocene species. Furthermore, whereas an Uria + Alle clade has been previously recovered from molecular analyses, the extinct diversity of closely related Miocepphus species yields morphological support for this clade. Our results suggest that extant alcid diversity is a function of Miocene diversification and differential extinction at the Pliocene–Pleistocene boundary. The relative timing of the Middle Miocene climatic optimum and the Pliocene–Pleistocene climatic transition and major diversification and extinction events in Pan‐Alcidae, respectively, are consistent with a potential link between major paleoclimatic events and pan‐alcid cladogenesis.     

Body size trends in a Holocene island bird assemblage

Despite the robust observation in macroecology that there are many small-bodied species, recent comparative studies have found little evidence for elevated net rates of diversification among small-bodied species within taxa. Here we examine the relationship between body size and species richness using the New Zealand land bird fauna, a well resolved palaeoecological Holocene assemblage. We test whether there is any evidence that net cladogenesis depended on body size in an assemblage prior to the impact of human-induced extinction. We also test whether net cladogenesis depends on the level at which taxa are endemic to New Zealand, to see whether there is evidence for bursts of cladogenesis following taxon establishment, and examine how the body sizes of New Zealand land birds relate to those in Australia, the most likely source pool for colonising taxa. Most New Zealand land bird species are small-bodied. We find no evidence, however, that this is due to higher net cladogenesis in small-bodied taxa. The body mass distributions of endemic and recent colonist species do not differ statistically, but recent colonists tend to be smaller-bodied than their closest endemic relative. This tendency is more marked for small-bodied than large-bodied taxa. More endemic taxa do not tend to be more species rich in New Zealand, although there is a positive relationship between level of endemism and species richness for forest taxa. The body mass distribution of New Zealand birds is very similar to that for Australia. Body mass does not dictate the likelihood that a family has colonised New Zealand from Australia, but the number of species in the family does: it is the species rich Australian families that have successfully colonised. We discuss the implications of these results for the evolution of body size distributions, and for the "island rule" of body size evolution on islands.     

EXTINCTION DURING EVOLUTIONARY RADIATIONS: RECONCILING THE FOSSIL RECORD WITH MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES

Recent application of time‐varying birth–death models to molecular phylogenies suggests that a decreasing diversification rate can only be observed if there was a decreasing speciation rate coupled with extremely low or no extinction. However, from a paleontological perspective, zero extinction rates during evolutionary radiations seem unlikely. Here, with a more comprehensive set of computer simulations, we show that substantial extinction can occur without erasing the signal of decreasing diversification rate in a molecular phylogeny. We also find, in agreement with the previous work, that a decrease in diversification rate cannot be observed in a molecular phylogeny with an increasing extinction rate alone. Further, we find that the ability to observe decreasing diversification rates in molecular phylogenies is controlled (in part) by the ratio of the initial speciation rate (Lambda) to the extinction rate (Mu) at equilibrium (the LiMe ratio), and not by their absolute values. Here we show in principle, how estimates of initial speciation rates may be calculated using both the fossil record and the shape of lineage through time plots derived from molecular phylogenies. This is important because the fossil record provides more reliable estimates of equilibrium extinction rates than initial speciation rates.     

Revisiting Jablonski (1993): cladogenesis and range expansion explain latitudinal variation in taxonomic richness

The increase in diversity towards the equator arises from latitudinal variation in rates of cladogenesis, extinction, immigration and/or emigration of taxa. We tested the relative contribution of all four processes to the latitudinal gradient in 26 marine invertebrate orders with extensive fossil records, examined previously by David Jablonski. Coupling Jablonski's estimates of latitudinal variation in cladogenesis with new data on patterns of extinction and current distributions, we show that the present-day gradient in diversity is caused by higher rates of cladogenesis and subsequent range expansion (immigration) at lower latitudes. In contrast, extinction and emigration were not important in the creation of the latitudinal gradient in ordinal richness. This work represents one of the first simultaneous tests of the role of all four processes in the creation of the latitudinal gradient in taxonomic richness, and suggests that low tropical extinction rates are not essential to the creation of latitudinal diversity gradients.     

Rates of dinosaur limb evolution provide evidence for exceptional radiation in Mesozoic birds

Birds are the most diverse living tetrapod group and are a model of large-scale adaptive radiation. Neontological studies suggest a radiation within the avian crown group, long after the origin of flight. However, deep time patterns of bird evolution remain obscure because only limited fossil data have been considered. We analyse cladogenesis and limb evolution on the entire tree of Mesozoic theropods, documenting the dinosaur–bird transition and immediate origins of powered flight. Mesozoic birds inherited constraints on forelimb evolution from non-flying ancestors, and species diversification rates did not accelerate in the earliest flying taxa. However, Early Cretaceous short-tailed birds exhibit both phenotypic release of the hindlimb and increased diversification rates, unparalleled in magnitude at any other time in the first 155 Myr of theropod evolution. Thus, a Cretaceous adaptive radiation of stem-group birds was enabled by restructuring of the terrestrial locomotor module, which represents a key innovation. Our results suggest two phases of radiation in Avialae: with the Cretaceous diversification overwritten by extinctions of stem-group birds at the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary, and subsequent diversification of the crown group. Our findings illustrate the importance of fossil data for understanding the macroevolutionary processes generating modern biodiversity.     

Relating traits to diversification: a simple test

We describe a simple comparative method for determining whether rates of diversification are correlated with continuous traits in species-level phylogenies. This involves comparing traits of species with net speciation rate (number of nodes linking extant species with the root divided by the root to tip evolutionary distance), using a phylogenetically corrected correlation. We use simulations to examine the power of this test. We find that the approach has acceptable power to uncover relationships between speciation and a continuous trait and is robust to background random extinction; however, the power of the approach is reduced when the rate of trait evolution is decreased. The test has low power to relate diversification to traits when extinction rate is correlated with the trait. Clearly, there are inherent limitations in using only data on extant species to infer correlates of extinction; however, this approach is potentially a powerful tool in analyzing correlates of speciation.     

Origins,bottlenecks, and present‐day diversity: Patterns of morphospace occupation in marine bivalves

It has long been known that species should not be distributed randomly in morphospace (a multidimensional trait space), even under simple models of evolution. However, recent studies suggest that position in morphospace can affect aspects of evolution such as the durations of clades and the species richness of their constituent taxa. Here we investigate the dynamics of morphospace occupancy in living and fossil marine bivalves using shell size and aspect ratio, two functionally important traits. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the center of a family's morphospace today represents a location where taxonomic diversity is maximized, apparently owing to lower extinction rates. Within individual bivalve families, species with narrow geographic ranges are distributed throughout the morphospace but widespread species, which are generally expected to be extinction resistant, tend to be concentrated near the center. The morphospace centers of most species‐rich families today (defined as the median value for all species in the family) tend to be close to the positions of the family founders, further suggesting an association between position in morphospace and net diversification rates. However, trajectories of individual subclades (genera) are inconsistent with the center of morphospace being an evolutionary attractor.     

POTENTIAL PITFALLS OF RECONSTRUCTING DEEP TIME EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY WITH ONLY EXTANT DATA,A CASE STUDY USING THE CANIDAE (MAMMALIA,CARNIVORA)

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns and their underlying processes is a central goal in biology. Yet many analyses of deep evolutionary histories assume that data from the fossil record is too incomplete to include, and rely solely on databases of extant taxa. Excluding fossil taxa assumes that character state distributions across living taxa are faithful representations of a clade's entire evolutionary history. Many factors can make this assumption problematic. Fossil taxa do not simply lead‐up to extant taxa; they represent now‐extinct lineages that can substantially impact interpretations of character evolution for extant groups. Here, we analyze body mass data for extant and fossil canids (dogs, foxes, and relatives) for changes in mean and variance through time. AIC‐based model selection recovered distinct models for each of eight canid subgroups. We compared model fit of parameter estimates for (1) extant data alone and (2) extant and fossil data, demonstrating that the latter performs significantly better. Moreover, extant‐only analyses result in unrealistically low estimates of ancestral mass. Although fossil data are not always available, reconstructions of deep‐time organismal evolution in the absence of deep‐time data can be highly inaccurate, and we argue that every effort should be made to include fossil data in macroevolutionary studies.     

INTEGRATING FOSSILS WITH MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES IMPROVES INFERENCE OF TRAIT EVOLUTION

Comparative biologists often attempt to draw inferences about tempo and mode in evolution by comparing the fit of evolutionary models to phylogenetic comparative data consisting of a molecular phylogeny with branch lengths and trait measurements from extant taxa. These kinds of approaches ignore historical evidence for evolutionary pattern and process contained in the fossil record. In this article, we show through simulation that incorporation of fossil information dramatically improves our ability to distinguish among models of quantitative trait evolution using comparative data. We further suggest a novel Bayesian approach that allows fossil information to be integrated even when explicit phylogenetic hypotheses are lacking for extinct representatives of extant clades. By applying this approach to a comparative dataset comprising body sizes for caniform carnivorans, we show that incorporation of fossil information not only improves ancestral state estimates relative to those derived from extant taxa alone, but also results in preference of a model of evolution with trend toward large body size over alternative models such as Brownian motion or Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. Our approach highlights the importance of considering fossil information when making macroevolutionary inference, and provides a way to integrate the kind of sparse fossil information that is available to most evolutionary biologists.     

Combining fossil and molecular data to date the diversification of New World Primates

Recent methodological advances in molecular dating associated with the growing availability of sequence data have prompted the study of the evolution of New World Anthropoidea in recent years. Motivated by questions regarding historical biogeography or the mode of evolution, these works aimed to obtain a clearer scenario of Platyrrhini origins and diversification. Although some consensus was found, disputed issues, especially those relating to the evolutionary affinities of fossil taxa, remain. The use of fossil taxa for divergence time analysis is traditionally restricted to the provision of calibration priors. However, new analytical approaches have been developed that incorporate fossils as terminals and, thus, directly assign ages to the fossil tips. In this study, we conducted a combined analysis of molecular and morphological data, including fossils, to derive the timescale of New World anthropoids. Differently from previous studies that conducted total‐evidence analysis of molecules and morphology, our approach investigated the morphological clock alone. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that living platyrrhines diversified in the last 20 Ma and that Miocene Patagonian fossils compose an independent evolutionary radiation that diversified in the late Oligocene. When compared to the node ages inferred from the molecular timescale, the inclusion of fossils augmented the precision of the estimates for nodes constrained by the fossil tips. We show that morphological data can be analysed using the same methodological framework applied in relaxed molecular clock studies.     

Do habitat shifts drive diversification in teleost fishes? An example from the pufferfishes (Tetraodontidae)

Habitat shifts are implicated as the cause of many vertebrate radiations, yet relatively few empirical studies quantify patterns of diversification following colonization of new habitats in fishes. The pufferfishes (family Tetraodon‐tidae) occur in several habitats, including coral reefs and freshwater, which are thought to provide ecological opportunity for adaptive radiation, and thus provide a unique system for testing the hypothesis that shifts to new habitats alter diversification rates. To test this hypothesis, we sequenced eight genes for 96 species of pufferfishes and closely related porcupine fishes, and added 19 species from sequences available in GenBank. We time‐calibrated the molecular phylogeny using three fossils, and performed several comparative analyses to test whether colonization of novel habitats led to shifts in the rate of speciation and body size evolution, central predictions of clades experiencing ecological adaptive radiation. Colonization of freshwater is associated with lower rates of cladogenesis in pufferfishes, although these lineages also exhibit accelerated rates of body size evolution. Increased rates of cladogenesis are associated with transitions to coral reefs, but reef lineages surprisingly exhibit significantly lower rates of body size evolution. These results suggest that ecological opportunity afforded by novel habitats may be limited for pufferfishes due to competition with other species, constraints relating to pufferfish life history and trophic ecology, and other factors.     

Detecting the historical signature of key innovations using stochastic models of character evolution and cladogenesis

Phylogenetic evidence for biological traits that increase the net diversification rate of lineages (key innovations) is most commonly drawn from comparisons of clade size. This can work well for ancient, unreversed traits and for correlating multiple trait origins with higher diversification rates, but it is less suitable for unique events, recently evolved innovations, and traits that exhibit homoplasy. Here I present a new method for detecting the phylogenetic signature of key innovations that tests whether the evolutionary history of the candidate trait is associated with shorter waiting times between cladogenesis events. The method employs stochastic models of character evolution and cladogenesis and integrates well into a Bayesian framework in which uncertainty in historical inferences (such as phylogenetic relationships) is allowed. Applied to a well-known example in plants, nectar spurs in columbines, the method gives much stronger support to the key innovation hypothesis than previous tests.     

How traits shape trees: new approaches for detecting character state‐dependent lineage diversification

Biologists have long sought to understand the processes underlying disparities in clade size across the tree of life and the extent to which such clade size differences can be attributed to the evolution of particular traits. The association of certain character states with species‐rich clades suggests that trait evolution can lead to increased diversification, but such a pattern could also arise due other processes, such as directional trait evolution. Recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods have provided new statistical approaches for distinguishing between these intertwined and potentially confounded macroevolutionary processes. Here, we review the historical development of methods for detecting state‐dependent diversification and explore what new methods have revealed about classic examples of traits that affect diversification, including evolutionary dead ends, key innovations and geographic traits. Applications of these methods thus far collectively suggest that trait diversity commonly arises through the complex interplay between transition, speciation and extinction rates and that long hypothesized evolutionary dead ends and key innovations are instead often cases of directional trends in trait evolution.     

Coral reefs as drivers of cladogenesis: expanding coral reefs, cryptic extinction events, and the development of biodiversity hotspots

Diversification rates within four conspicuous coral reef fish families (Labridae, Chaetodontidae, Pomacentridae and Apogonidae) were estimated using Bayesian inference. Lineage through time plots revealed a possible late Eocene/early Oligocene cryptic extinction event coinciding with the collapse of the ancestral Tethyan/Arabian hotspot. Rates of diversification analysis revealed elevated cladogenesis in all families in the Oligocene/Miocene. Throughout the Miocene, lineages with a high percentage of coral reef-associated taxa display significantly higher net diversification rates than expected. The development of a complex mosaic of reef habitats in the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) during the Oligocene/Miocene appears to have been a significant driver of cladogenesis. Patterns of diversification suggest that coral reefs acted as a refuge from high extinction, as reef taxa are able to sustain diversification at high extinction rates. The IAA appears to support both cladogenesis and survival in associated lineages, laying the foundation for the recent IAA marine biodiversity hotspot.     

From Messinian crisis to Mediterranean climate: A temporal gap of diversification recovered from multiple plant phylogenies

Paleobotanical and molecular studies link diversification of plants in the Mediterranean Basin with the onset of the Mediterranean climate. Screening diversification before this period is needed in order to analyze whether the observed increase in diversification is a legitimate footprint denoting radiation or instead the biological signal of a previous mass extinction or rate stasis period. A shared post-Messinian temporal gap of cladogenesis has been previously observed in two Mediterranean sister genera. Based on this evidence we explored recently published molecular studies to recover lineages with similar diversification profiles exhibiting a cladogenesis gap. Using this criterion, we conducted a meta-analysis of 36 Mediterranean plant lineages with a post-Messinian temporal gap of cladogenesis, including a new molecular dating of Genista (Fabaceae). Whereas 39% of these lineages have not diversified since the Miocene, another 39% began to rediversify during the onset of the Mediterranean climate and the remaining 22% began diversifying again afterwards during the Quaternary. The pattern of Mediterranean diversification recovery after a temporal gap of cladogenesis was also obtained with phylogenetic tree simulations under birth and death processes when forcing one or two temporal shifts in diversification rates. The relative importance of the Mediterranean onset as a driving force promoting speciation or triggering extinction remains as an open question, since neither the mass extinction nor the rate stasis evolutionary scenarios can be rule out. The independent analysis of individual clades within phylogenies is also essential to detect clade-dependent patterns hidden by phylogeny-level ones. We disclose the importance of analyzing diversification patterns of Mediterranean lineages since the Miocene to understand the recent history of the Mediterranean biota.     

EXTINCTION RATES SHOULD NOT BE ESTIMATED FROM MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES

Molecular phylogenies contain information about the tempo and mode of species diversification through time. Because extinction leaves a characteristic signature in the shape of molecular phylogenetic trees, many studies have used data from extant taxa only to infer extinction rates. This is a promising approach for the large number of taxa for which extinction rates cannot be estimated from the fossil record. Here, I explore the consequences of violating a common assumption made by studies of extinction from phylogenetic data. I show that when diversification rates vary among lineages, simple estimators based on the birth–death process are unable to recover true extinction rates. This is problematic for phylogenetic trees with complete taxon sampling as well as for the simpler case of clades with known age and species richness. Given the ubiquity of variation in diversification rates among lineages and clades, these results suggest that extinction rates should not be estimated in the absence of fossil data.     

Tightly congruent bursts of lineage and phenotypic diversification identified in a continental ant radiation

Adaptive diversification is thought to be shaped by ecological opportunity. A prediction of this ecological process of diversification is that it should result in congruent bursts of lineage and phenotypic diversification, but few studies have found this expected association. Here, we study the relationship between rates of lineage diversification and body size evolution in the turtle ants, a diverse Neotropical clade. Using a near complete, time‐calibrated phylogeny we investigated lineage diversification dynamics and body size disparity through model fitting analyses and estimation of per‐lineage rates of cladogenesis and phenotypic evolution. We identify an exceptionally high degree of congruence between the high rates of lineage and body size diversification in a young clade undergoing renewed diversification in the ecologically distinct Chacoan biogeographical region of South America. It is likely that the region presented turtle ants with novel ecological opportunity, which facilitated a nested burst of diversification and phenotypic evolution within the group. Our results provide a compelling quantitative example of tight congruence between rates of lineage and phenotypic diversification, meeting the key predicted pattern of adaptive diversification shaped by ecological opportunity.