Context-dependent foraging choices in risk-sensitive starlings

Existing models of risk-sensitive foraging assume that animals assign value to different options according to an absolute currency. It follows from this assumption that choices are expected to be both transitive and regular, because the value assigned to an option is independent of its context. I tested these predictions by comparing preferences obtained in binary and trinary contexts. European starlings, Sturnus vulgaris, were trained using an operant paradigm to forage for three options: Constant (C) that provided a fixed number of food pellets; Low variance (L) with a coefficient of variation of 71% in the number of pellets; High variance (H) with a coefficient of variation of 106%. The preferences of the birds were tested in three binary choice treatments (CL, CH, LH) and one trinary choice treatment (CLH). Overall, there was no evidence for violations of either transitivity or regularity. However, overall, a bird's relative preference for its most preferred option over its second most preferred option was significantly greater in the trinary treatment than in the comparable binary treatment. This effect of context on choice is compatible with starlings' use of comparative instead of absolute currencies in decision making. Copyright 2002 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.     

Dose-finding based on efficacy-toxicity trade-offs

We present an adaptive Bayesian method for dose-finding in phase I/II clinical trials based on trade-offs between the probabilities of treatment efficacy and toxicity. The method accommodates either trinary or bivariate binary outcomes, as well as efficacy probabilities that possibly are nonmonotone in dose. Doses are selected for successive patient cohorts based on a set of efficacy-toxicity trade-off contours that partition the two-dimensional outcome probability domain. Priors are established by solving for hyperparameters that optimize the fit of the model to elicited mean outcome probabilities. For trinary outcomes, the new algorithm is compared to the method of Thall and Russell (1998, Biometrics 54, 251-264) by application to a trial of rapid treatment for ischemic stroke. The bivariate binary outcome case is illustrated by a trial of graft-versus-host disease treatment in allogeneic bone marrow transplantation. Computer simulations show that, under a wide rage of dose-outcome scenarios, the new method has high probabilities of making correct decisions and treats most patients at doses with desirable efficacy-toxicity trade-offs.     

Trinary Layered Double Hydroxides as High‐Performance Bifunctional Materials for Oxygen Electrocatalysis

Layered double hydroxides (LDHs) are a family of high‐profile layer materials with tunable metal species and interlayer spacing, and herein the LDHs are first investigated as bifunctional electrocatalysts. It is found that trinary LDH containing nickel, cobalt, and iron (NiCoFe‐LDH) shows a reasonable bifunctional performance, while exploiting a preoxidation treatment can significantly enhance both oxygen reduction reaction and oxygen evolution reaction activity. This phenomenon is attributed to the partial conversion of Co²⁺ to Co³⁺ state in the preoxidation step, which stimulates the charge transfer to the catalyst surface. The practical application of the optimized material is demonstrated with a small potential hysteresis (800 mV for a reversible current density of 20 mA cm^?2) as well as a high stability, exceeding the performances of noble metal catalysts (commercial Pt/C and Ir/C). The combination of the electrochemical metrics and the facile and cost‐effective synthesis endows the trinary LDH as a promising bifunctional catalyst for a variety of applications, such as next‐generation regenerative fuel cells or metal–air batteries.     

A global goodness-of-fit statistic for Cox regression models

In this paper, a global goodness-of-fit test statistic for a Cox regression model, which has an approximate chi-squared distribution when the model has been correctly specified, is proposed. Our goodness-of-fit statistic is global and has power to detect if interactions or higher order powers of covariates in the model are needed. The proposed statistic is similar to the Hosmer and Lemeshow (1980, Communications in Statistics A10, 1043-1069) goodness-of-fit statistic for binary data as well as Schoenfeld's (1980, Biometrika 67, 145-153) statistic for the Cox model. The methods are illustrated using data from a Mayo Clinic trial in primary billiary cirrhosis of the liver (Fleming and Harrington, 1991, Counting Processes and Survival Analysis), in which the outcome is the time until liver transplantation or death. The are 17 possible covariates. Two Cox proportional hazards models are fit to the data, and the proposed goodness-of-fit statistic is applied to the fitted models.     

A new statistic for detecting genetic differentiation

A new statistic for detecting genetic differentiation of subpopulations is described. The statistic can be calculated when genetic data are collected on individuals sampled from two or more localities. It is assumed that haplotypic data are obtained, either in the form of DNA sequences or data on many tightly linked markers. Using a symmetric island model, and assuming an infinite-sites model of mutation, it is found that the new statistic is as powerful or more powerful than previously proposed statistics for a wide range of parameter values.     

On the use of permutation in and the performance of a class of nonparametric methods to detect differential gene expression

MOTIVATION: Recently a class of nonparametric statistical methods, including the empirical Bayes (EB) method, the significance analysis of microarray (SAM) method and the mixture model method (MMM), have been proposed to detect differential gene expression for replicated microarray experiments conducted under two conditions. All the methods depend on constructing a test statistic Z and a so-called null statistic z. The null statistic z is used to provide some reference distribution for Z such that statistical inference can be accomplished. A common way of constructing z is to apply Z to randomly permuted data. Here we point our that the distribution of z may not approximate the null distribution of Z well, leading to possibly too conservative inference. This observation may apply to other permutation-based nonparametric methods. We propose a new method of constructing a null statistic that aims to estimate the null distribution of a test statistic directly. RESULTS: Using simulated data and real data, we assess and compare the performance of the existing method and our new method when applied in EB, SAM and MMM. Some interesting findings on operating characteristics of EB, SAM and MMM are also reported. Finally, by combining the idea of SAM and MMM, we outline a simple nonparametric method based on the direct use of a test statistic and a null statistic.     

Improved statistical tests for differential gene expression by shrinking variance components estimates

Combining information across genes in the statistical analysis of microarray data is desirable because of the relatively small number of data points obtained for each individual gene. Here we develop an estimator of the error variance that can borrow information across genes using the James-Stein shrinkage concept. A new test statistic (FS) is constructed using this estimator. The new statistic is compared with other statistics used to test for differential expression: the gene-specific F test (F1), the pooled-variance F statistic (F3), a hybrid statistic (F2) that uses the average of the individual and pooled variances, the regularized t-statistic, the posterior odds statistic B, and the SAM t-test. The FS-test shows best or nearly best power for detecting differentially expressed genes over a wide range of simulated data in which the variance components associated with individual genes are either homogeneous or heterogeneous. Thus FS provides a powerful and robust approach to test differential expression of genes that utilizes information not available in individual gene testing approaches and does not suffer from biases of the pooled variance approach.     

The affected-pedigree-member method of linkage analysis.

This paper describes a generalization of the affected-sib-pair method of linkage analysis to pedigrees. By substituting identity-by-state relations for identity-by-descent relations, we develop a test statistic for detecting departures from independent segregation of disease and marker phenotypes. The statistic is based on the marker phenotypes of affected pedigree members only. Since it is more striking for distantly affected relatives to share a rare marker allele than a common marker allele, the statistic also includes a weighting factor based on allele frequency. The distributional properties of the statistic are investigated theoretically and by simulation. Part of the theoretical treatment entails generalizing Karigl's multiple-person kinship coefficients. When the test statistic is applied to pedigree data on Huntington disease, the null hypothesis of independent segregation between the marker locus and the disease locus is firmly rejected. In this case, as expected, there is a loss of power when compared with standard lod-score analysis. However, our statistic possesses the advantage of requiring no explicit assumptions about the mode of inheritance of the disease. This point is illustrated by application of the test statistic to data on rheumatoid arthritis.     

A Two Sample CRAMÉR-VON MISES Test for Randomly Censored Data

A CRAMÉR-VON MISES type statistic is introduced for testing the equality of the underlying survival distributions of two populations when observations are subject to arbitrary right censorship. The statistic is appropriate in testing problems where a two-sided alternative is of interest. The asymptotic distribution of the statistic is found; under certain circumstances, the limiting distribution coincides with that of a one sample CRAMÉR-VON MISES type statistic for randomly censored data investigated previously. Approximations to the asymptotic distribution are discussed; an example is given.     

Reproducibility-optimized test statistic for ranking genes in microarray studies

A principal goal of microarray studies is to identify the genes showing differential expression under distinct conditions. In such studies, the selection of an optimal test statistic is a crucial challenge, which depends on the type and amount of data under analysis. While previous studies on simulated or spike-in datasets do not provide practical guidance on how to choose the best method for a given real dataset, we introduce an enhanced reproducibility-optimization procedure, which enables the selection of a suitable gene- anking statistic directly from the data. In comparison with existing ranking methods, the reproducibilityoptimized statistic shows good performance consistently under various simulated conditions and on Affymetrix spike-in dataset. Further, the feasibility of the novel statistic is confirmed in a practical research setting using data from an in-house cDNA microarray study of asthma-related gene expression changes. These results suggest that the procedure facilitates the selection of an appropriate test statistic for a given dataset without relying on a priori assumptions, which may bias the findings and their interpretation. Moreover, the general reproducibilityoptimization procedure is not limited to detecting differential expression only but could be extended to a wide range of other applications as well.     

A statistical method for the comparison of a discrete diagnostic test with several continuous diagnostic tests.

In this paper we study a statistic that is suitable for comparing a discrete diagnostic marker to one or more continuous diagnostic markers. Test procedures and confidence intervals are based on asymptotic normality. The statistic is applicable for correlated data in which all the markers are obtained for each subject. The statistic was studied for use in comparing two markers for rectal bleeding. Examples for this application and two more general applications are presented.     

An entropy-based statistic for genomewide association studies

Efficient genotyping methods and the availability of a large collection of single-nucleotide polymorphisms provide valuable tools for genetic studies of human disease. The standard chi2 statistic for case-control studies, which uses a linear function of allele frequencies, has limited power when the number of marker loci is large. We introduce a novel test statistic for genetic association studies that uses Shannon entropy and a nonlinear function of allele frequencies to amplify the differences in allele and haplotype frequencies to maintain statistical power with large numbers of marker loci. We investigate the relationship between the entropy-based test statistic and the standard chi2 statistic and show that, in most cases, the power of the entropy-based statistic is greater than that of the standard chi2 statistic. The distribution of the entropy-based statistic and the type I error rates are validated using simulation studies. Finally, we apply the new entropy-based test statistic to two real data sets, one for the COMT gene and schizophrenia and one for the MMP-2 gene and esophageal carcinoma, to evaluate the performance of the new method for genetic association studies. The results show that the entropy-based statistic obtained smaller P values than did the standard chi2 statistic.     

Detection of differentially expressed gene sets in a partially paired microarray data set

Partially paired data sets often occur in microarray experiments (Kim et al., 2005; Liu, Liang and Jang, 2006). Discussions of testing with partially paired data are found in the literature (Lin and Stivers 1974; Ekbohm, 1976; Bhoj, 1978). Bhoj (1978) initially proposed a test statistic that uses a convex combination of paired and unpaired t statistics. Kim et al. (2005) later proposed the t3 statistic, which is a linear combination of paired and unpaired t statistics, and then used it to detect differentially expressed (DE) genes in colorectal cancer (CRC) cDNA microarray data. In this paper, we extend Kim et al.'s t3 statistic to the Hotelling's T2 type statistic Tp for detecting DE gene sets of size p. We employ Efron's empirical null principle to incorporate inter-gene correlation in the estimation of the false discovery rate. Then, the proposed Tp statistic is applied to Kim et al's CRC data to detect the DE gene sets of sizes p=2 and p=3. Our results show that for small p, particularly for p=2 and marginally for p=3, the proposed Tp statistic compliments the univariate procedure by detecting additional DE genes that were undetected in the univariate test procedure. We also conduct a simulation study to demonstrate that Efron's empirical null principle is robust to the departure from the normal assumption.     

A class of multiplicity adjusted tests for spatial clustering based on case-control point data

A class of tests with quadratic forms for detecting spatial clustering of health events based on case-control point data is proposed. It includes Cuzick and Edwards's test statistic (1990, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 52, 73-104). Although they used the property of asymptotic normality of the test statistic, we show that such an approximation is generally poor for moderately large sample sizes. Instead, we suggest a central chi-square distribution as a better approximation to the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic. Furthermore, not only to estimate the optimal value of the unknown parameter on the scale of cluster but also to adjust for multiple testing due to repeating the procedure by changing the parameter value, we propose the minimum of the profile p-value of the test statistic for the parameter as an integrated test statistic. We also provide a statistic to estimate the areas or cases which make large contributions to significant clustering. The proposed methods are illustrated with a data set concerning the locations of cases of childhood leukemia and lymphoma and another on early medieval grave site locations consisting of affected and nonaffected grave sites.     

Comparisons of predictive values of binary medical diagnostic tests for paired designs

Positive and negative predictive values of a diagnostic test are key clinically relevant measures of test accuracy. Surprisingly, statistical methods for comparing tests with regard to these parameters have not been available for the most common study design in which each test is applied to each study individual. In this paper, we propose a statistic for comparing the predictive values of two diagnostic tests using this paired study design. The proposed statistic is a score statistic derived from a marginal regression model and bears some relation to McNemar's statistic. As McNemar's statistic can be used to compare sensitivities and specificities of diagnostic tests, parameters that condition on disease status, our statistic can be considered as an analog of McNemar's test for the problem of comparing predictive values, parameters that condition on test outcome. We report on the results of a simulation study designed to examine the properties of this test under a variety of conditions. The method is illustrated with data from a study of methods for diagnosis of coronary artery disease.     

A generalized nonparametric test for lattice-ordered means

Treatment means in factorial experiments are lattice ordered when there is an increase in mean response as the level of any factor is increased while holding the other factors fixed. Such means occur naturally in many experiments. A nonparametric test for lattice-ordered means involving a Kendall-type statistic will be summarized for k-factor factorial experiments. Specifically, the form of the test statistic and variance under the null hypothesis will be presented. In addition, a normalized version of the test statistic will be discussed and applied to relevant data.     

Significance testing for correlated binary outcome data

Multiple logistic regression is a commonly used multivariate technique for analyzing data with a binary outcome. One assumption needed for this method of analysis is the independence of outcome for all sample points in a data set. In ophthalmologic data and other types of correlated binary data, this assumption is often grossly violated and the validity of the technique becomes an issue. A technique has been developed (Rosner, 1984) that utilizes a polychotomous logistic regression model to allow one to look at multiple exposure variables in the context of a correlated binary data structure. This model is an extension of the beta-binomial model, which has been widely used to model correlated binary data when no covariates are present. In this paper, a relationship is developed between the two techniques, whereby it is shown that use of ordinary logistic regression in the presence of correlated binary data can result in true significance levels that are considerably larger than nominal levels in frequently encountered situations. This relationship is explored in detail in the case of a single dichotomous exposure variable. In this case, the appropriate test statistic can be expressed as an adjusted chi-square statistic based on the 2 X 2 contingency table relating exposure to outcome. The test statistic is easily computed as a function of the ordinary chi-square statistic and the correlation between eyes (or more generally between cluster members) for outcome and exposure, respectively. This generalizes some previous results obtained by Koval and Donner (1987, in Festschrift for V. M. Joshi, I. B. MacNeill (ed.), Vol. V, 199-224.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

A Human Platelet Calcium Calculator Trained by Pairwise Agonist Scanning

Since platelet intracellular calcium mobilization [Ca(t)]_i controls granule release, cyclooxygenase-1 and integrin activation, and phosphatidylserine exposure, blood clotting simulations require prediction of platelet [Ca(t)]_i in response to combinatorial agonists. Pairwise Agonist Scanning (PAS) deployed all single and pairwise combinations of six agonists (ADP, convulxin, thrombin, U46619, iloprost and GSNO used at 0.1, 1, and 10xEC₅₀; 154 conditions including a null condition) to stimulate platelet P₂Y₁/P2Y₁₂ GPVI, PAR1/PAR4, TP, IP receptors, and guanylate cyclase, respectively, in Factor Xa-inhibited (250 nM apixaban), diluted platelet rich plasma that had been loaded with the calcium dye Fluo-4 NW. PAS of 10 healthy donors provided [Ca(t)]_i data for training 10 neural networks (NN, 2-layer/12-nodes) per donor. Trinary stimulations were then conducted at all 0.1x and 1xEC₅₀ doses (160 conditions) as was a sampling of 45 higher ordered combinations (four to six agonists). The NN-ensemble average was a calcium calculator that accurately predicted [Ca (t)]_i beyond the single and binary training set for trinary stimulations (R = 0.924). The 160 trinary synergy scores, a normalized metric of signaling crosstalk, were also well predicted (R = 0.850) as were the calcium dynamics (R = 0.871) and high-dimensional synergy scores (R = 0.695) for the 45 higher ordered conditions. The calculator even predicted sequential addition experiments (n = 54 conditions, R = 0.921). NN-ensemble is a fast calcium calculator, ideal for multiscale clotting simulations that include spatiotemporal concentrations of ADP, collagen, thrombin, thromboxane, prostacyclin, and nitric oxide.     

Testing the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in the HLA system

A new method of testing the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) system is proposed and applied to real data. The derivation is based on the maximum likelihood method and closely related to standard regression theory. The test statistic has a closed representation of residual sum of squares by a projection mapping of data onto the estimated regression plane. Under the Hardy-Weinberg law the noniterative estimates for the gene frequencies are suggested by the use of the projection mapping. The test statistic and gene frequency estimates are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood method and to be more efficient than the other suggested test statistic when there are more than two identified alleles.     

Testing for bias in weighted estimating equations

It is very common in regression analysis to encounter incompletely observed covariate information. A recent approach to analyse such data is weighted estimating equations (Robins, J. M., Rotnitzky, A. and Zhao, L. P. (1994), JASA, 89, 846-866, and Zhao, L. P., Lipsitz, S. R. and Lew, D. (1996), Biometrics, 52, 1165-1182). With weighted estimating equations, the contribution to the estimating equation from a complete observation is weighted by the inverse of the probability of being observed. We propose a test statistic to assess if the weighted estimating equations produce biased estimates. Our test statistic is similar to the test statistic proposed by DuMouchel and Duncan (1983) for weighted least squares estimates for sample survey data. The method is illustrated using data from a randomized clinical trial on chemotherapy for multiple myeloma.