REPRODUCTION IN FEMALE MANATEES OBSERVED IN SARASOTA BAY, FLORIDA

Resightings of recognizable individual Florida manatees, Trichechus manatus latirostris , in Sarasota Bay provided information on life history and reproductive parameters. These parameters have been documented at winter aggregation sites, but few data existed for Florida's west coast at non-winter sites. Life history data are needed to estimate annual reproduction and survival rates and construct population models for manatees along west central Florida. Observations of 113 recognizable manatees of known sex sighted between 1993 and 1997 indicated a 1: 1 sex ratio. Fifty-three females produced at least 55 calves during five years of observation. Two large, presumably sexually mature females were never observed with calves in over five years of monitoring. Not surprisingly, several reproductive parameters matched those measured in previous studies at winter sites with a mean of 1.8 seasons of calf dependence, 2.2 seasons between births, and age of sexual maturity at 3–4 yr. Birth rates, fecundity, and proportions of females with calves varied only slightly among investigations.     

SURVIVAL ESTIMATES FOR FLORIDA MANATEES FROM THE PHOTO-IDENTIFICATION OF INDIVIDUALS

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) in four regional populations using photoidentification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727–0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827–0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946–0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.     

OBSERVATIONS OF FLORIDA MANATEES(TRICHECHUS MANATUS LATIROSTRIS) AROUND SELECTED POWER PLANTS IN WINTER

Sixty-four aerial surveys were flown during cold, winter weather between December 1982 and February 1772 to provide an index of trends in abundance of the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris )around five Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) plants. The surveys documented high winter use of warm-water discharges at four of the plants (Canaveral, Riviera. Port Everglades, and Fort Myers). The total number of manatees sighted at the five primary plants surveyed during a single survey ranged from 6 to 765 manatees (= 330 ± 45 manatees per survey): thus, up to 41% of the total Florida manatee minimum population of 1.850 animals may be found on cold days at FPL plants. The number of calves sighted at the plants during winter has decreased; similarly, for three consecutive years (winter 1989–1970 through winter 1991–1992), the percentage of the manatees that are calves sighted at the plants has decreased. Although data from the surveys of FPL plants do not necessarily reflect what may be happening with manatees located elsewhere in Florida, a possible reduction in calf numbers, coupled with increasing numbers of dead calves being documented by scientists involved in manatee carcass salvage work, is cause for concern in this slow-reproducing, endangered species.     

HABITAT SELECTION BY MANATEES IN SARASOTA BAY, FLORIDA

Habitat selection by Florida manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) is influenced by, among other things, availability of food, thermal, and freshwater resources. However, habitat selection by females with dependent calves may differ from that of other demographic groups with regard to the relative importance of these factors. Additional factors that may influence habitat selection for females with dependent calves include ambient noise, strong currents, or increased foraging requirements. We examined distributional data for manatees from aerial surveys of the coastal waters near Sarasota, Florida, between 1994 and 2004 to determine whether habitat selection by groups of manatees that included calves differed from that of other groups. We characterized groups according to their location within seven habitat types. Enclosed bays not traversed by the Intracoastal Waterway had the highest proportions of groups with calves. Groups with calves used a No Entry refuge (from which almost all human use is barred) to a greater extent than did other groups. Overall, groups with calves exhibited significantly different habitat selection from groups without calves ( P < 0.001, χ²= 43.0, df = 6), but this was not consistent across seasons. During the winter and spring, thermal requirements influenced manatees to such an extent that all demographic groups selected habitat similarly.     

DETERMINATION OF MANATEE POPULATION TRENDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA USING A BAYESIAN APPROACH WITH TEMPERATURE-ADJUSTED AERIAL SURVEY DATA

In many animal population survey studies, the construction of a stochastic model provides an effective way to capture underlying biological characteristics that contribute to the overall variation in the data. In this paper we develop a stochastic model to assess the population trend and abundance of the Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris , along the Atlantic coast of the state, using aerial survey data collected at winter aggregation sites between 1982 and 2001. This model accounts for the method by which the manatees were counted, their movements between surveys, and the behavior of the total population over time. The data suggest an overall increase in the population from 1982 to 1989 of around 5%–7%, a reduction in growth or a leveling off (0%–4% annual growth) from 1990 to 1993, and then an increase again of around 3%–6% since 1994. In winter 2001–2002 (the most recent survey season for which analyses were done), we estimated the adult manatee population along the east coast of Florida to be 1,607 individuals (range = 1,353–1,972; 95% credible interval). Our estimate of manatee abundance corresponds well with maximum counts (approximately 1,600 manatees) produced during synoptic aerial surveys under optimal conditions. Our calculations of trends correspond well with mark and recapture analyses of trends in survival of adult manatees along the east coast through the early 1990s. Our population trend estimates since that time are more optimistic than those generated by mark-recapture models.     

Abundance estimation of gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) calves from shore‐based surveys undertaken near Ensenada,Baja California,Mexico, 2004–2006

Gray whale calf abundance was estimated from shore‐based surveys near Ensenada, Baja California, during their northbound migration. Over the course of 129 effort‐days (756.5 observation hours), 162 calves were counted, comprising 42, 41, and 79 calves in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. To estimate the number of undetected calves during the observation periods in 2006, detection probabilities were estimated by simultaneous and independent counts using a Huggins model. The detection probabilities ranged from 0.655 to 0.997. The number of calves estimated during effort periods were divided by their estimated detection probabilities, while the total number of calves were estimated by fitting a generalized additive model (GAM) to the passage rate (whales/h) and effort (time) data. The final gray whale calf abundance estimates were 451 (95% CI = 430, 513), 253 (95% CI= 245, 308), and 442 (95% CI = 396, 510) calves for 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. The estimates were lower than those reported for Piedras Blancas, California, during the same years, with one possible reason being that an important number of cow/calf pairs migrate too far from shore (>10 km) to be detected from the observation site used in this research.     

INFLUENCE OF POWER PLANTS AND OTHER WARM-WATER REFUGES ON FLORIDA MANATEES

Because of limited tolerance to cold, most Florida manatees survive cold winter periods by aggregating at warm‐water discharges from power plants and natural springs in central and northern Florida. Many power plants used by manatees may soon be retired. When this occurs, some people assume manatees will move to warmer areas in southern Florida; others fear they will stay near retired plants and sustain high levels of cold‐related deaths causing a decline in abundance. To assess these possibilities, we examine warm‐water habitats, population structure and movement, cold‐related deaths, and information on possible historical manatee distribution. Winter water temperatures even in southernmost Florida periodically fall below manatee tolerance levels. To survive such periods, manatees use two types of warm‐water refuges: warm‐water discharges, and passive thermal basins that cool slowly, thereby temporarily retaining warm temperatures. During the coldest periods, perhaps 60% of all manatees use 10 power plants and 15% use four natural springs; most others use thermal basins in southern Florida. Site fidelity to these refuges appears to be the principal factor segregating manatees into at least four subpopulations. Since 1986, rates of cold‐related deaths in southernmost Florida (10.0%) have exceeded those in areas with natural springs in central and northern Florida (8.8%). Our findings suggest that warm‐water springs in northern Florida offer better winter habitat than thermal basins in southern Florida and are better able to support large numbers of manatees. Although evidence is scant, we suggest that manatees historically overwintered principally at northern springs, but that Pre‐Columbian and European hunting restricted their winter range to southernmost Florida by the early 1900s. We also suggest that southernmost Florida may not be able to sustain a large influx of displaced of manatees in the absence of power plants, and that warm‐water springs in northern Florida should be considered the most important source of natural warm‐water habitat.     

Helminths of the Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris, with a discussion and summary of the parasites of sirenians

We examined 215 Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) at necropsy to determine the helminth fauna. Six species were identified: Heterocheilus tunicatus (Nematoda: Ascaridoidea); Anoplocephala sp. (Cestoda: Cyclophyllidea); and 4 species of trematodes, Cochleotrema cochleotrema (Digenea: Opisthotrematidae), Chiorchis fabaceus (Digenea: Paramphistomatidae), Nudacotyle undicola (Digenea: Nudacotylidae), and Moniligerum blairi (Digenea: Opisthotrematidae). Seventy-three percent of the manatees examined were infected with at least 1 species of helminth. The mean number of species of helminths per infected manatee was 1.9 with a range of 1-4. Fifty-nine manatees were helminth-free; 30 of these were calves. No associations were found between the intensity of helminth infections and host sex, age class, season, and geographic location of recovery, or cause of death. Differences in parasite prevalence between age classes were highly significant for Chiorchis, Cochleotrema, and Heterocheilus, due to a low number of infected calves. A higher prevalence of Cochleotrema was found in manatees recovered from eastern Florida, and Heterocheilus was evident in significantly more manatees from western and souther Florida. Comparisons in the parasite fauna are made among Florida manatees and other sirenian populations, and a brief review of sirenian parasites is included.     

CAPTURE-RECAPTURE ANALYSIS FOR ESTIMATING MANATEE REPRODUCTIVE RATES

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state markresighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982–2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.     

New insights from an attempt to reintroduce Red‐cockaded Woodpeckers in northern Florida

Red‐cockaded Woodpeckers (Leuconotopicus borealis) were extirpated from Tall Timbers Research Station in the early 1980s. To help meet conservation goals established for this imperiled species in north Florida, we attempted to reintroduce the woodpecker to the research station by constructing artificial cavities and translocating 27 subadult woodpeckers from 2006 to 2010. Successful nesting occurred during the breeding season following the initial translocation of four male–female pairs. Translocations were suspended in 2011 when breeding groups occupied 6 of 12 available clusters of cavity trees. The population increased steadily after 2011 and, in 2015, totaled 28 adults distributed among nine breeding groups plus a single territorial male. The 2015 population included 22 individuals produced at Tall Timbers, an immigrant female, and five birds originally translocated as subadults. Seven breeding groups in 2015 also had non‐breeding helpers. New milestones documented during this reintroduction attempt included recruitment of locally produced birds into the breeding population, excavation of natural cavities, two immigration events, and natural expansion into an unoccupied area. We also documented the threat that heavy rains may pose to small populations. Expenses totaled $211,000 during the first 5 yr when translocations and cavity construction were the primary activities. After translocations were suspended, recurring management expenses were ~ $6500 annually. Because our founding population was small (N = 12), intermittent translocations will likely be needed in the future to offset the deleterious effects of inbreeding.     

Estimation of Detection Probability in Manatee Aerial Surveys at a Winter Aggregation Site

Abstract: Estimating components of detection probability is crucial to improving the design of aerial surveys for wildlife populations, and this is especially true for species of marine mammals that are threatened or endangered. To evaluate the probability that Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) will be detected by observers during aerial surveys, we conducted 6 series of survey flights, during mornings and afternoons on 14-16 consecutive days over the Tampa Electric Company's (TECO) Big Bend power plant discharge canal in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA (winter 2000 through 2003). Our objective was to understand how our ability to detect manatees at a winter aggregation site affects aerial survey counts, so that we may improve techniques for estimating manatee population size. We estimated the probability that manatees would be present at the warm-water discharge of the plant during winter cold fronts and estimated the overall detection probability of manatees present at the plant and the 2 components that make up the probability of detection (the probability of being available and the probability of being detected given they are available). We used telemetry tags and marker flags (n = 15) to facilitate capture-recapture analyses. The probability that marked manatees would be at the plant varied from 48% to 68% across flight series and was inversely related to the ambient water temperature. Based on sightings of marked animals, estimates of the overall probability of detecting a manatee ranged from 45% to 69% across flight series (x̄ = 58%, n = 6). The probability that a manatee would be available to an observer ranged from 73% to 94% across flight series (x̄ = 83%) but was constant among years (83%, 81%, and 78%; x̄ = 81%). The probability that an available manatee would be detected by an aerial observer was variable across flight series (55-95%) and years (73%, 86%, and 66%, x̄ = 73%). Independent estimates of the probability that a manatee would be available to the observer on one pass were obtained from time-depth data loggers and ranged from 5% to 33% (x̄ = 19%, SE = 3.7%), and the probability that a manatee would be available during ≥1 of 10 passes ranged from 41% to 98% (x̄ = 88%, 95% confidence bounds 0.71-0.95). We adjusted survey counts using measures of detectability. Although corrected counts presented here are site-specific, adjusting counts based on detection probability will greatly improve reliability of population estimates from all aerial surveys. Special sampling to estimate components of detection probability should be built into all aerial surveys to ensure that reliable and unbiased information on species abundance is used to evaluate wildlife populations.     

Winter Habitat Preferences for Florida Manatees and Vulnerability to Cold

To survive cold winter periods most, if not all, Florida manatees rely on warm-water refuges in the southern two-thirds of the Florida peninsula. Most refuges are either warm-water discharges from power plant and natural springs, or passive thermal basins that temporarily trap relatively warm water for a week or more. Strong fidelity to one or more refuges has created four relatively discrete Florida manatee subpopulations. Using statewide winter counts of manatees from 1999 to 2011, we provide the first attempt to quantify the proportion of animals using the three principal refuge types (power plants, springs, and passive thermal basins) statewide and for each subpopulation. Statewide across all years, 48.5% of all manatees were counted at power plant outfalls, 17.5% at natural springs, and 34.9 % at passive thermal basins or sites with no known warm-water features. Atlantic Coast and Southwest Florida subpopulations comprised 82.2% of all manatees counted (45.6% and 36.6%, respectively) with each subpopulation relying principally on power plants (66.6% and 47.4%, respectively). The upper St. Johns River and Northwest Florida subpopulations comprised 17.8% of all manatees counted with almost all animals relying entirely on springs (99.2% and 88.6% of those subpopulations, respectively). A record high count of 5,076 manatees in January 2010 revealed minimum sizes for the four subpopulations of: 230 manatees in the upper St. Johns River; 2,548 on the Atlantic Coast; 645 in Northwest Florida; and 1,774 in Southwest Florida. Based on a comparison of carcass recovery locations for 713 manatees killed by cold stress between 1999 and 2011 and the distribution of known refuges, it appears that springs offer manatees the best protection against cold stress. Long-term survival of Florida manatees will require improved efforts to enhance and protect manatee access to and use of warm-water springs as power plant outfalls are shut down.     

Assessing the abundance of Bristol Bay belugas with genetic mark‐recapture methods

The Bristol Bay stock of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) is genetically distinct and resides in Bristol Bay year‐round. We estimated the abundance of this population using genetic mark‐recapture, whereby genetic markers from skin biopsies, collected between 2002 and 2011, were used to identify individuals. We identified 516 individual belugas in two inner bays, 468 from Kvichak Bay and 48 from Nushagak Bay, and recaptured 75 belugas in separate years. Using a POPAN Jolly‐Seber model, abundance was estimated at 1,928 belugas (95% CI = 1,611–2,337), not including calves, which were not sampled. Most belugas were sampled in Kvichak Bay at a time when belugas are also known to occur in Nushagak Bay. The pattern of genetic recaptures and data from belugas with satellite transmitters suggested that belugas in the two bays regularly mix. Hence, the estimate of abundance likely applies to all belugas within Bristol Bay. Simulations suggested that POPAN estimates of abundance are robust to most forms of emigration, but that emigration causes negative bias in both capture and survival probabilities. Because it is likely that some belugas do not enter the sampling area during sampling, our estimate of abundance is best considered a minimum population size.     

New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability of detection of individual manatees within a group also differed among surveys, ranging from a low of 0.27 on 11 January to a high of 0.73 on 8 August. During winter surveys, abundance was always higher inland at Port of the Islands (POI), a manatee warm-water aggregation site, than in the other habitat types. During warm-season surveys, highest abundances were estimated in offshore habitat where manatees forage on seagrass. Manatees continued to use POI in summer, but in lower numbers than in winter, possibly to drink freshwater. Abundance in other inland systems and inshore bays was low compared to POI in winter and summer, possibly because of low availability of freshwater. During cold weather, maps of patch abundance of paired surveys showed daily changes in manatee distribution associated with rapid changes in air and water temperature as manatees sought warm water with falling temperatures and seagrass areas with increasing temperatures. Within a habitat type, some patches had higher manatee abundance suggesting differences in quality, possibly due to freshwater flow. If hydrological restoration alters the location of quality habitat, postrestoration comparisons using our methods will document how manatees adjust to new resources, providing managers with information on spatial needs for further monitoring or management. Total abundance for the entire area was similar among survey dates. Credible intervals however were large on a few surveys, and may limit our ability to statistically detect trends in total abundance. Additional modeling of abundance with time- and patch-specific covariates of salinity, water temperature, and seagrass abundance will directly link manatee abundance with physical and biological changes due to restoration and should decrease uncertainty of estimates. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN ABUNDANCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF MANATEES (TRICHECHUS MANATUS) IN THE NORTHERN BANANA RIVER, BREVARD COUNTY, FLORIDA

Four aerial survey projects were conducted between 1977 and 1986 to determine the abundance, density and distribution of West Indian manatees (Trichechus manatus), in the northern Banana River, Kennedy Space Center, Florida. Manatee density and distribution within selected portions of the 78.5 km² study area were determined. Peak numbers of manatees occurred in spring of each year. The maximum counts increased from 56 in 1978 to 297 in 1986. Manatee abundance was lowest in the winter of each year. Mean density per flight increased from 0.52 manatees/km2 in 1977–78 to 2.73/km² in 1984–86. This increase may reflect increases in the east coast population or shifts in the population distribution. Distributional changes were observed in the study area through time, with a lower percentage of manatees occurring in industrial areas and a correspondingly higher percentage of manatees in nonindustrial areas by 1985.     

Comparison of reproductive parameters for populations of eastern North Pacific common dolphins: Delphinus capensis and D. delphis

Reproductive parameters were estimated and compared for eastern North Pacific populations of common dolphins using specimen and photogrammetric data. Age and length data for Delphinus capensis and D. delphis specimens recovered as bycatch or strandings were used to estimate the postnatal growth rates needed to estimate age for calves measured in aerial photographs. Bayesian methods propagated uncertainty among models and revealed that the 2009 cohort of calves had birth dates centered on 6 March 2009 for D. capensis and 12 December 2008 for D. delphis. The evidence for discrete calving seasons suggests a mechanism of reproductive isolation has evolved between species. Photogrammetric data and Bayesian methods were also used to estimate the average length at which calves swim independently: 145.1 cm (≈ 11.1 mo) in D. capensis and 140.1 cm (≈ 14.0 mo) in D. delphis, and the proportion of calves (calves/dolphins counted): 0.045 in D. capensis and 0.069 in D. delphis. The latter parameter was converted to an index of calf production (calf/female dolphin) that was >50% lower than pregnancy rates suggesting few births occurred during the study year. Comparisons of regional differences in calf production suggest variability in habitat use patterns within the study area.     

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974–2006

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming‐induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well‐documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age‐specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.     

Population size and migratory connectivity of humpback whales wintering in Las Perlas Archipelago,Panama

From 2003 to 2009, we surveyed Las Perlas Archipelago off the Pacific coast of Panama 53 times between the months of August and October to estimate abundance of humpback whales and to test for a migratory connection with populations from the southern hemisphere. We identified 295 individuals using photo‐identification of dorsal fins, including 58 calves, and the population estimate for a single season was 100–300 solitary adults plus 25–50 mothers with calves; the estimated population of animals across all seasons using a mark and recapture model was over 1,000. Eight of the 139 fluke identifications were matched to whales in photograph catalogues from the Antarctic Peninsula and a ninth was matched to a whale sighted in Chilean waters; four of these nine individuals have also been sighted in Colombia. We conclude that Panama (Las Perlas Archipelago in particular) is an important calving area for humpback whales in the Southern Hemisphere. These data should provide a foundation for monitoring of population change and to increase awareness in Panama about the need to manage vessel traffic and tourism related to the whales at Las Perlas.     

Demographic parameters of a free-ranging deep-diving cetacean,the long-finned pilot whale

Demographic parameters provide baselines to estimate future population trajectories which can then be used in management decisions. The aim here was to estimate demographic parameters of long-finned pilot whale (Globicephala melas) from the Strait of Gibraltar by fitting mark-recapture models to photo-identification data of primary and secondary marked individuals. These parameters were used to forecast the future population trajectories in a population viability analysis (PVA) given different scenarios of demographic rates. Survival rate increased with age from 0.629, 95% CI [0.409, 0.805] for calves, 0.869, 95% CI [0.758, 0.934] for juveniles, to 0.972, 95% CI [0.953, 0.983] for adults. A preliminary mean observed interval of viable calves was 4.5 years. The PVA estimated the population would persist over 100 years with a 100% probability for all scenarios except those with lower 95% CI survival values, for which the probability of extinction reached 100%. Population growth rate was negative in all scenarios except those with 95% CI upper survival values. Interbirth interval and juvenile survival were found most influential and depended on the correct identification of secondary marked (e.g., calves and juveniles) individuals on a long-term basis. This population was found in a precarious state prior to a morbillivirus outbreak that might even more endanger its long-term viability.     

Bias in aerial estimates of the number of nests in White Ibis and Great Egret colonies

ABSTRACT Estimating detection error, as well as the magnitude of other potential survey biases, is essential when sampling efforts play a role in the estimation of population size and management of wildlife populations. We quantified visual biases in aerial surveys of nesting wading birds (Ciconiiformes) in colonies in the Florida Everglades using a negative binomial count regression model to compare numbers of nests in quadrats counted on the ground with numbers estimated from aerial photographs of the same quadrats. The model also allowed the determination of degree of difference between monitoring results based upon such factors as nest density, vegetative cover, and nest turnover rates. Aerial surveys of White Ibis (Eudocimus albus) colonies underestimated the true number of nests found during ground counts by 11.1%, and underestimates were significantly greater (P= 0.047) in a colony with high nest turnover. Error rates did not differ for quadrats that varied in the density of White Ibis nests did not differ, and visual bias did not increase with vegetative complexity (P= 0.73). Estimates of nest density in colonies of Great Egrets (Ardea alba) based on aerial surveys were higher than ground counts for 38% of the quadrats sampled, and mean visual bias was 23.1%. Species misidentification likely contributed to visibility bias for Great Egrets in our study, with some Snowy Egrets almost certainly mistaken for Great Egrets in aerial photos. Biases of the magnitude we observed fro Great Egrets and White Ibises can mask true population trends in long‐term monitoring and, therefore, we recommend that detection probability be explicitly evaluated when conducting aerial surveys of nesting birds.