Comparison of abundance and habitat usage for common bottlenose dolphins between sites exposed to differential anthropogenic stressors within the estuaries of southern Georgia,U.S.A

The health of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) within southern Georgia estuaries is of particular concern due to high levels of anthropogenic contaminants in their tissues. Dolphins in this region have the highest polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations recorded for any marine mammal and these concentrations correlate to distance from a Superfund point‐source in the Turtle/Brunswick River Estuary (TBRE). Currently, little is known about the population structure of dolphins in this region. This study identifies and compares baseline data on abundance, habitat use, site‐fidelity, and ranging patterns of dolphins across two adjacent field sites; Brunswick, including the TBRE, and Sapelo, including the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve. Sapelo is relatively undeveloped and was selected for comparison to the more contaminated TBRE. Dolphin densities increased with tributary size in both sites but dolphin density and total abundance were significantly higher in Sapelo than in Brunswick. Anthropogenic stressors within the TBRE may be an important factor contributing to the differences in abundance, density, and habitat use observed in this study.     

Dusky dolphin (Lagenorhynchus obscurus) social structure characterized by social fluidity and preferred companions

Many coastal delphinids exhibit social structures with a high degree of fission‐fusion dynamics. However, little is known about fission‐fusion dynamics in semipelagic delphinids such as dusky dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obscurus). We analyzed dusky dolphin social structure in a winter foraging habitat in New Zealand. We examined the population‐level societal attributes of preferred/avoided companions, behaviorally specific preferred/avoided companions, and simple ratio (SR) association index strength and distribution and the dyad‐level societal attribute of temporal patterning of associations. We identified 741 individuals; 99 met inclusion criteria for analysis. Long‐term and short‐term preferred/avoided companions were present in the pooled (6 yr) and annual samples. Individuals were observed to form long‐term but not short‐term preferred/avoided companions during all behavioral states. Mean and maximum SRs were 0.03 ± 0.01 SD and 0.40 ± 0.20 SD, respectively. Temporal analysis indicated that individuals associated preferentially throughout the study period. Dusky dolphins exhibited high social fluidity, as indicated by many weak and few strong associations. However, there was stability as individuals were observed to form behaviorally specific preferred/avoided companions and associate preferentially throughout the 6 yr period. Dusky dolphins thus display a dynamic social structure where overall low levels of bonding are juxtaposed against a subset of the population that forms strong bonds.     

The Dynamic of Aggression: How Individual and Group Factors Affect the Long‐Term Interspecific Aggression Between Two Sympatric Species of Dolphin

Interspecific aggression, similar to intergroup conspecific aggression, has been observed in a variety of taxa. The dominant group or individual is determined by multiple aggressive events and can be influenced by the size, age, or group size of the participating individuals. Interspecific aggression between Atlantic bottlenose (Tursiops truncatus) and spotted (Stenella frontalis) dolphins, both resident and sympatric to Little Bahama Bank, the Bahamas has been consistently observed for over two decades. However, it is unclear whether one species is more dominant and little is known about the factors that influence the progression of aggression. For this study, underwater video recordings of 32 aggressive encounters composed of 451 aggressive behavioural events were analysed over a 12‐yr period (1993–2004). These were used to describe the interspecific aggression observed and quantify which factors (the species and age class of the participants or the group size and behaviour of spotted dolphin groups) had the strongest impact on the progression and outcome of aggression. Over the long term, interspecific aggression was bidirectional with neither species being more dominant. During a single encounter, spotted dolphin group synchrony had the strongest impact on the dynamic of aggression, specifically impacting which group (1) initiated aggression, (2) the direction of aggression and (3) the occurrence of dynamic shifts or dominance reversals. This is the first study to quantify the dynamic of aggression for this population, to document bidirectional aggression and dynamic shifts during long‐term interspecific aggression in free‐ranging delphinids, and this study quantifies the role of synchrony during interspecific aggression using underwater observations.     

Striped dolphins and short‐beaked common dolphins in the Gulf of Corinth,Greece: Abundance estimates from dorsal fin photographs

Capture‐recapture methods relying on dorsal fin natural markings have never been applied successfully to striped dolphins, Stenella coeruleoalba, and were rarely used to assess abundance of short‐beaked common dolphins, Delphinus delphis. We used digital photo‐identification to obtain abundance estimates of striped and common dolphins living in mixed groups in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece. The proportion of either species was calculated based on the relative number of photographs of adult animals showing relevant portions of their body during conspicuous surfacings. Striped dolphins and common dolphins averaged 95.0% and 3.2% of all individuals, respectively. Animals showing intermediate pigmentation accounted for another 1.8%. Striped dolphin numbers were relatively high, with a point estimate of 835 animals (95% CI = 631–1,106). Common dolphins numbers were low (point estimate 28 animals; 95% CI = 11–73) and individuals were scattered within striped dolphin groups, indicating that this common dolphin population may be nonviable. Within a semiclosed Gulf exposed to considerable anthropogenic impact, the future of both dolphin species is of concern due to their suspected geographic isolation and restricted extent of occurrence. Information provided here can be used to inform timely conservation efforts.     

Differential adult survival at close seabird colonies: The importance of spatial foraging segregation and bycatch risk during the breeding season

Marine megafauna, including seabirds, are critically affected by fisheries bycatch. However, bycatch risk may differ on temporal and spatial scales due to the uneven distribution and effort of fleets operating different fishing gear, and to focal species distribution and foraging behavior. Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea is a long‐lived seabird that experiences high bycatch rates in longline fisheries and strong population‐level impacts due to this type of anthropogenic mortality. Analyzing a long‐term dataset on individual monitoring, we compared adult survival (by means of multi‐event capture–recapture models) among three close predator‐free Mediterranean colonies of the species. Unexpectedly for a long‐lived organism, adult survival varied among colonies. We explored potential causes of this differential survival by (1) measuring egg volume as a proxy of food availability and parental condition; (2) building a specific longline bycatch risk map for the species; and (3) assessing the distribution patterns of breeding birds from the three study colonies via GPS tracking. Egg volume was very similar between colonies over time, suggesting that environmental variability related to habitat foraging suitability was not the main cause of differential survival. On the other hand, differences in foraging movements among individuals from the three colonies expose them to differential mortality risk, which likely influenced the observed differences in adult survival. The overlap of information obtained by the generation of specific bycatch risk maps, the quantification of population demographic parameters, and the foraging spatial analysis should inform managers about differential sensitivity to the anthropogenic impact at mesoscale level and guide decisions depending on the spatial configuration of local populations. The approach would apply and should be considered in any species where foraging distribution is colony‐specific and mortality risk varies spatially.     

Population dynamics of a natural red deer population over 200 years detected via substantial changes of genetic variation

Most large mammals have constantly been exposed to anthropogenic influence over decades or even centuries. Because of their long generation times and lack of sampling material, inferences of past population genetic dynamics, including anthropogenic impacts, have only relied on the analysis of the structure of extant populations. Here, we investigate for the first time the change in the genetic constitution of a natural red deer population over two centuries, using up to 200‐year‐old antlers (30 generations) stored in trophy collections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the oldest DNA source ever used for microsatellite population genetic analyses. We demonstrate that government policy and hunting laws may have strong impacts on populations that can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes in the genetic constitution of a large mammal population. A high ancestral individual polymorphism seen in an outbreeding population (1813–1861) was strongly reduced in descendants (1923–1940) during the mid‐19th and early 20th century by genetic bottlenecks. Today (2011), individual polymorphism and variance among individuals is increasing in a constant‐sized (managed) population. Differentiation was high among periods (F_ST > ***); consequently, assignment tests assigned individuals to their own period with >85% probability. In contrast to the high variance observed at nuclear microsatellite loci, mtDNA (D‐loop) was monomorphic through time, suggesting that male immigration dominates the genetic evolution in this population.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

High calf mortality in bottlenose dolphins in the Bay of Islands,New Zealand–a local unit in decline

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Bay of Islands, New Zealand, have been studied for almost two decades. Since 2003, fewer than 150 dolphins visited the bay during each season and the local unit has declined 7.5% annually from 1997 to 2006. The causes of decline are unclear but probably include mortality and emigration. Here, we used a long‐term database to estimate reproductive parameters of female bottlenose dolphins including recruitment rates. A total of 704 surveys were conducted in which 5,577 sightings of 408 individually identified dolphins were collected; of these 53 individuals were identified as reproductive females. The calving rate increased between periods (1997–1999 = 0.13, CL = 0.07–0.21; 2003–2005 = 0.25, CL = 0.16–0.35 calves/reproductive female/year). A 0.25 calving rate suggests that on average, a female gives birth only once every four years, which is consistent with the estimated calving interval (4.3 yr, SD = 1.45) but still is lower than values reported for other populations. Conversely, apparent mortality rates to age 1+ (range: 0.34–0.52) and 2+ (range: 0.15–0.59) were higher than values reported elsewhere. The high apparent calf mortality in conjunction with a decline in local abundance, highlight the vulnerability of bottlenose dolphins in the Bay of Islands. Long‐term studies are required to understand the causes of high calf mortality and the decline in local abundance. Meanwhile, management should focus on minimizing sources of anthropogenic disturbance and enforcing compliance with current legislation.     

Fine‐scale habitat use in Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphins,Sousa chinensis,may be more influenced by fish rather than vessels in the Pearl River Estuary,China

Shifts in habitat use and distribution patterns in dolphins are often concerns that can result from habitat degradation. We investigated how potential changes to a habitat from human activity may alter dolphin distributions within Lingding Bay in the Pearl River Estuary, China, by studying the relationship between fish choruses, vessel presence and Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) detection rates. Analyses revealed temporal and spatial variation within fish choruses, vessel presence and dolphin detection rates. After accounting for any temporal autocorrelation, correlations between fish choruses and dolphin detection rates were also found; however, no relationship between fish choruses and vessel presence or dolphin detection rates and vessel presence were observed. Furthermore, fewer dolphins were detected at sites where fish activity was less intense. Thus fish activity, rather than vessels, may be a key factor influencing the distribution of the dolphins within the estuary. These findings emphasize the risk of potential shifts in habitat use for Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphins due to detrimental changes to prey availability and dolphin feeding grounds from human activity, such as overfishing and coastal developments, within the estuary. This is a critical conservation issue for this dolphin population that is facing intense anthropogenic pressure.     

Social structure of Atlantic spotted dolphins,Stenella frontalis,following environmental disturbance and demographic changes

Extreme environmental events and demographic changes can have variable effects on the social structure of animal populations. This study compared the social structure of a community of Atlantic spotted dolphins in the Bahamas before and after two hurricanes. Approximately 36% of the individuals were lost, with no subsequent increase in immigration. The majority of the social structure characteristics were consistent with results from a long‐term study covering the previous 12 yr, including community structure with definitive social clusters, sex preferences and overall association patterns. However some changes occurred, though still constrained within sex preferences. Posthurricane there was a decrease in social differentiation and increased cohesion within clusters and across age class. Males retained or made new first order alliances, however, only one second order alliance was evident, revealing a simplified alliance structure. Juvenile individuals made alliance level associations, unprecedented from long‐term analysis. Although other studies have shown stark restructuring, this study showed that less drastic changes within overall social structure stability can occur. Persistence and evolutionary changes in populations through environmental and/or demographic perturbations may depend on the social structure of a population or community. Understanding the processes involved in social development is paramount for conservation of diverse populations.     

Genetic differentiation among coastal and offshore common bottlenose dolphins,Tursiops truncatus,in the eastern North Pacific Ocean

Common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) are found worldwide in temperate and tropical regions, often occurring as distinct coastal and offshore ecotypes. Along the west coast of the United States, two stocks are recognized for management based on morphological and photo‐identification studies: a California coastal stock, estimated at 450–500 individuals, and a California/Oregon/Washington offshore stock of about 1,000 animals. This study is the first to analyze genetic differentiation between these stocks. We examined both the hypervariable portion of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and fifteen microsatellite markers for coastal (n = 64) and offshore (n = 69) dolphins. Significant genetic differentiation was found between the two stocks for mtDNA (Φ_ST = 0.30, P < 0.001; F_ST = 0.14, P < 0.001) and microsatellite loci (F_ST = 0.19, P < 0.001). Coastal dolphins had less genetic diversity than offshore dolphins. Further substructuring within the offshore stock was not detected. The level of genetic differentiation between the coastal and offshore dolphins is consistent with long‐term separation and reinforces recognizing them as separate stocks. These findings are particularly important for management of the smaller, less genetically diverse, coastal stock that is vulnerable to a variety of anthropogenic threats.     

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Defining bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) stocks based on environmental,physical, and behavioral characteristics

The population structure of bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, along the U.S. Atlantic coast has recently been redefined from one homogenous population into five coastal stocks. Local studies indicate even finer structure, primarily based on isolation of dolphins inhabiting estuaries. We identified population structuring of non‐estuarine coastal bottlenose dolphins during a study in New Jersey, the northern range along the Atlantic Coast. Using photo‐identification and distribution survey results, an analysis identified two major clusters of individuals significantly separated by five variables (distance from shoreline, group size, occurrence of the barnacle Xenobalanus globicipitis, avoidance behavior, and individual coloration). Sightings assigned to cluster 1 occurred in nearshore shallow waters (0–1.9 km, x?= 3.5 m), and those assigned to cluster 2 occurred further offshore in deeper waters (1.9–6 km, x?= 9.5 m). Only eight of 194 individuals (4%) were identified in both regions. Collectively, this suggests an occurrence of two stocks that are spatially, physically, and behaviorally distinguishable over a small distance. These results indicate that complexity in Tursiops population structure is not limited to latitudinal gradients or barriers created by estuarine habitats, but also by partitioning of habitat as a function of distance from shore and depth over small distances.     

Effects of a protection gradient on carnivore density and survival: an example with leopards in the Luangwa valley,Zambia

Human activities on the periphery of protected areas can limit carnivore populations, but measurements of the strength of such effects are limited, largely due to difficulties of obtaining precise data on population density and survival. We measured how density and survival rates of a previously unstudied leopard population varied across a gradient of protection and evaluated which anthropogenic activities accounted for observed patterns. Insights into this generalist's response to human encroachment are likely to identify limiting factors for other sympatric carnivore species. Motion‐sensitive cameras were deployed systematically in adjacent, similarly sized, and ecologically similar study areas inside and outside Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) from 2012 to 2014. The sites differed primarily in the degree of human impacts: SLNP is strictly protected, but the adjacent area was subject to human encroachment and bushmeat poaching throughout the study, and trophy hunting of leopards prior to 2012. We used photographic capture histories with robust design capture–recapture models to estimate population size and sex‐specific survival rates for the two areas. Leopard density within SLNP was 67% greater than in the adjacent area, but annual survival rates and sex ratios did not detectably differ between the sites. Prior research indicated that wire‐snare occurrence was 5.2 times greater in the areas adjacent to the park. These results suggest that the low density of leopards on the periphery of SLNP is better explained by prey depletion, rather than by direct anthropogenic mortality. Long‐term spatial data from concurrent lion studies suggested that interspecific competition did not produce the observed patterns. Large carnivore populations are often limited by human activities, but science‐based management policies depend on methods to rigorously and quantitatively assess threats to populations of concern. Using noninvasive robust design capture–recapture methods, we systematically assessed leopard density and survival across a protection gradient and identified bushmeat poaching as the likely limiting factor. This approach is of broad value to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic activities on carnivore populations that are distributed across gradients of protection.     

OCCURRENCE,DISTRIBUTION, SITE FIDELITY,AND SCHOOL SIZE OF BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS (TURSIOPS TRUNCATUS) OFF SAN DIEGO,CALIFORNIA

The occurrence, distribution, site fidelity, and school size of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the coastal waters of north San Diego County, California were assessed during a six-year boat-based photoidentification study. A total of 146 photographic surveys were conducted between January 1984 and December 1989. Dolphin schools were encountered on 79% of all surveys, and 2, 869 individuals were observed in 145 separate schools. Three-hundred seventy-three dolphins were individually identified. All schools were sighted within 1 km of shore, and more than two thirds of the schools were encountered in the southern half of the 32-km long study area. School size (mean = 19.8, SD = 18.40) and the number of dolphins encountered per survey (mean = 26.8, SD = 22.30) were highly variable. Low resighting rates of known individuals provided little evidence for longterm site fidelity. When our six-year photoidentification database was combined with previous data, 404 dolphins were identified in the study area from September 1981 to December 1989. Jolly-Seber population estimates during the 1984-1989 study period varied between 234 and 285. The combination of regular dolphin occurrence, low site fidelity by known individuals, and the continuous increase in the rate at which new dolphins were identified indicates that numerous different individuals were visiting the study area across and within years. The open California coastline differs in habitat structure and prey distribution from more protected study areas where bottlenose dolphins display site fidelity. These habitat differences may help to explain the observed intraspecific behavioral variability of this species.     

Evolution and disappearance of sympatric Coregonus albula in a changing environment—A case study of the only remaining population pair in Sweden

During the past 50 years, Fennoscandian populations of spring‐spawning Baltic cisco (Coregonus albula), sympatric to common autumn‐spawners, have declined or disappeared; for example, three out of four known spring‐spawning populations in Sweden are regarded as extinct. Over the same period, the climate has changed and populations have been subject to other anthropogenic stressors. We compared historic (1960s) and recent (1990–2000s) morphological data from the still‐existent sympatric cisco populations in Lake Fegen, Sweden. Phenotypic changes were found for spring‐spawners making them more similar to the sympatric autumn‐spawners that had remained virtually unchanged. Based on results for other salmoniform fishes, a phenotypically plastic response to increased temperature during early development appears unlikely. The recent material was also analyzed with microsatellite markers; long‐term effective population size in spring‐spawners was estimated to be about 20 times lower than autumn‐spawners, with signs of long‐term gene flow in both directions and a recent genetic bottleneck in spring‐spawners. We suggest the change toward a less distinct phenotype in spring‐spawners to reflect a recent increase in gene flow from autumn‐spawners. Time since divergence was estimated to only c. 1,900 years (95% CI: 400–5,900), but still the Fegen populations represent the most morphologically and genetically distinct sympatric populations studied. Consequently, we hypothesize that less distinct population pairs can be even younger and that spring‐spawning may have repeatedly evolved and disappeared in several lakes since the end of the last glaciation, concurrent with changed environmental conditions.     

Long‐term social structure of a resident community of Atlantic spotted dolphins,Stenella Frontalis,in the Bahamas 1991–2002

Long‐term social structure data on small delphinids is lacking for most species except the bottlenose dolphin. This study describes the long‐term social structure of one community of Atlantic spotted dolphins, Stenella frontalis, divided into three social clusters. Data from 12 yr were analyzed using SOCPROG 2.3. Coefficients of association (CoA) were calculated using the half‐weight index. The overall mean community CoA ranged from 0.09 to 0.12. Temporal analyses and mantel tests revealed significant differences between sex class associations due to high male‐male CoA (0.12–0.23) compared to female‐female and mixed sex CoA (0.08–0.10). Female associations were strongly influenced by reproductive status, calf care, and social familiarity, but not by age class. Male associations were strongly influenced by age, access to females, and alliance formation. Males showed two levels of alliance formation, long‐term first order pairs/trios (CoA 0.70–1.00) and shorter‐term second order alliances between two or more first order alliances (CoA 0.45–0.69), and a possible third level during interspecies interactions. Mating strategies, sex, and cluster formation shaped the social structure in this spotted dolphin community. Similar to many bottlenose dolphin studies, long‐term affiliations for spotted dolphins were correlated with age, sex, and reproductive status.     

Molecular insights into the historic demography of bowhead whales: understanding the evolutionary basis of contemporary management practices

Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi‐marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long‐term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography.     

Decline in local abundance of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Bay of Islands,New Zealand

Regional populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) around New Zealand are genetically isolated from each other and the species was recently classified as nationally endangered based on relatively small population sizes and reports of high calf mortality. Here, we estimate the abundance and trends in one of these regional populations, the Bay of Islands, using a photo‐identification database collected from 1997 to 1999 and from 2003 to 2006, containing a total of 3,841 records of 317 individual dolphins. Estimates of abundance obtained with the robust design fluctuated widely but showed a significant decline in the number of dolphins present in the bay over time (7.5% annual rate of decline). Temporary emigration was random and fluctuated considerably (γ  =  0.18, SE = 0.07 to γ  =  0.84, SE = 0.06). Apparent survival was estimated at 0.928 (CI = 0.911–0.942). Seasonal estimates (26 seasons) obtained in POPAN also showed a significant decline in abundance (5.8% annual rate of decline). Despite the decline observed in local abundance, dolphins continue to be found regularly in the Bay of Islands, suggesting that fewer dolphins use the bay on regular basis. Consequently, it seems that a change in habitat use, mortality and possibly low recruitment could underlie the apparent local decline.