High dispersal capacity and biogeographic breaks shape the genetic diversity of a globally distributed reef‐dwelling calcifier

Understanding the role of dispersal and adaptation in the evolutionary history of marine species is essential for predicting their response to changing conditions. We analyzed patterns of genetic differentiation in the key tropical calcifying species of large benthic foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera to reveal the evolutionary processes responsible for its biogeographic distribution. We collected specimens from 16 sites encompassing the entire range of the species and analyzed hypervariable fragments of the 18S SSU rDNA marker. We identified six hierarchically organized genotypes with mutually exclusive distribution organized along a longitudinal gradient. The distribution is consistent with diversification occurring in the Indo‐West Pacific (IWP) followed by dispersal toward the periphery. This pattern can be explained by: (a) high dispersal capacity of the species, (b) habitat heterogeneity driving more recent differentiation in the IWP, and (c) ecological‐scale processes such as niche incumbency reinforcing patterns of genotype mutual exclusion. The dispersal potential of this species drives the ongoing range expansion into the Mediterranean Sea, indicating that A. lobifera is able to expand its distribution by tracking increases in temperature. The genetic structure reveals recent diversification and high rate of extinction in the evolutionary history of the clade suggesting a high turnover rate of the diversity at the cryptic level. This diversification dynamic combined with high dispersal potential, allowed the species to maintain a widespread distribution over periods of geological and climatic upheaval. These characteristics are likely to allow the species to modify its geographic range in response to ongoing global warming without requiring genetic differentiation.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Dynamic distribution modelling: predicting the present from the past

Confidence in projections of the future distributions of species requires demonstration that recently-observed changes could have been predicted adequately. Here we use a dynamic model framework to demonstrate that recently-observed changes at the expanding northern boundaries of three British butterfly species can be predicted with good accuracy. Previous work established that the distributions of the study species currently lag behind climate change, and so we presumed that climate is not currently a major constraint at the northern range margins of our study species. We predicted 1970–2000 distribution changes using a colonisation model, MIGRATE, superimposed on a high-resolution map of habitat availability. Thirty-year rates and patterns of distribution change could be accurately predicted for each species (κ goodness-of-fit of models >0.64 for all three species, corresponding to >83% of grid cells correctly assigned), using a combination of individual species traits, species-specific habitat associations and distance-dependent dispersal. Sensitivity analyses showed that population productivity was the most important determinant of the rate of distribution expansion (variation in dispersal rate was not studied because the species are thought to be similar in dispersal capacity), and that each species' distribution prior to expansion was critical in determining the spatial pattern of the current distribution. In future, modelling approaches that combine climate suitability and spatially-explicit population models, incorporating demographic variables and habitat availability, are likely to be valuable tools in projecting species' responses to climatic change and hence in anticipating management to facilitate species' dispersal and persistence.     

Macroecological Patterns of Climatic Niche Breadth Variation in Lacertid Lizards

Measuring climatic niche position and breadth may help to determine where species can occur over space and time. Using GIS-based and phylogenetic comparative methods, we investigated global patterns of variation in climatic niche breadth in lacertid lizards to test the following three hypotheses about climatic niche widths. First, does a species' temperature or precipitation niche breadth relate to its temperature or precipitation niche position(the mean value of annual mean temperature or annual precipitation across sampled localities in the range of each species)? Second, are there trade-offs between a species' temperature niche breadth and precipitation niche breadth? Third, does a species' temperature or precipitation niche breadth relate to altitude or latitude? We expect that:(1) species distributed in cold regions are specialized for low-temperature environments(i.e. narrow niche breadth center around low temperatures);(2) a negative relationship between species niche breadth on temperature and precipitation axes according to the tradeoff hypothesis(i.e. species that tolerate a broad range of precipitation regimes cannot also tolerate a broad range of temperatures);(3) precipitation niche breadth decreases with altitude or latitude, whereas temperature climatic niche breadth increases with altitude or latitude. Based on the analytical results we found that:(1) temperature niche breadth and position are negatively related, while precipitation niche breadth and position are positively related;(2) there is no trade-off between temperature and precipitation niche breadths; and (3) temperature niche breadth and latitude/altitude are positively related, but precipitation niche breadth and latitude/altitude are not significantly related. Our results show many similarities with previous studies on climatic niche widths reported for amphibians and lizards, which provide further evidence that such macroecological patterns of variation in climatic niche breadths may be widespread.     

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.     

Climatic constraints on wintering bird distributions are modified by urbanization and weather

1.?Ecologists have long been interested in the role of climate in shaping species' ranges, and in recent years, this relationship has taken on greater significance because of the need for accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on wildlife populations. Bioclimatic relationships, however, are potentially complicated by various environmental factors operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that climatic constraints on bird distributions are modified by species-specific responses to weather, urbanization and use of supplemental food. 2.?Our analyses focused on 18 bird species with data from over 3000 sites across the north-eastern United States and adjacent Canadian provinces. We use hierarchal occupancy modelling to quantify the effects of short-term weather variation and surrounding urbanization on food stress and probabilities of detection, and how these fine-scale changes modify the role that climate has on the distributions of wintering bird populations at regional scales. 3.?Examining site occupancy and supplemental food use across the study region, we found that average minimum temperature was an important factor limiting bird distributions, supporting the hypothesis that the occupancy of wintering birds is limited by climatic constraints. We found that 15 of 18 species (83%) were more energetically stressed (had a higher likelihood of visiting a feeder station) as minimum temperature declined from the seasonal average. Because we found these patterns in populations that regularly visit supplemental food sites and were likely not food-limited, we suggest that resource availability is less important than climate in constraining wintering bird distributions. Across a winter season, local within-winter extinction probabilities were lower and colonization probabilities higher at warmer sites supporting the role of climate-mediated range shifts. Importantly, however, these relationships were modified by the degree of urbanization and species' abilities to persist in human-modified landscapes. 4.?Our results suggest that urbanization and behavioural adaptation can modify the role of climate on bird ranges and should be included in future analyses of range shifts because of climate change.     

Ecological and geographic modes of species divergence in wild tomatoes

Understanding the role of geography and ecology in species divergence is central to the study of evolutionary diversification. We used climatic, geographic, and biological data from nine wild Andean tomato species to describe each species' ecological niche and to evaluate the likely ecological and geographical modes of speciation in this clade. Using data from >1000 wild accessions and publicly available data derived from geographic information systems for various environmental variables, we found most species pairs were significantly differentiated for one or more environmental variables. By comparing species' predicted niches generated by species distribution modeling (SDM), we found significant niche differentiation among three of four sister-species pairs, suggesting ecological divergence is consistently associated with recent divergence. In comparison, based on age-range correlation (ARC) analysis, there was no evidence for a predominant geographical (allopatric vs. sympatric) context for speciation in this group. Overall, our results suggest an important role for environmentally mediated differentiation, rather than simply geographical isolation, in species divergence.     

A common thermal niche among geographically diverse populations of the widely distributed tree species Eucalyptus tereticornis: No evidence for adaptation to climate‐of‐origin

Impacts of climate warming depend on the degree to which plants are constrained by adaptation to their climate‐of‐origin or exhibit broad climatic suitability. We grew cool‐origin, central and warm‐origin provenances of Eucalyptus tereticornis in an array of common temperature environments from 18 to 35.5°C to determine if this widely distributed tree species consists of geographically contrasting provenances with differentiated and narrow thermal niches, or if provenances share a common thermal niche. The temperature responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and growth were equivalent across the three provenances, reflecting a common thermal niche despite a 2,200 km geographic distance and 13°C difference in mean annual temperature at seed origin. The temperature dependence of growth was primarily mediated by changes in leaf area per unit plant mass, photosynthesis, and whole‐plant respiration. Thermal acclimation of leaf, stem, and root respiration moderated the increase in respiration with temperature, but acclimation was constrained at high temperatures. We conclude that this species consists of provenances that are not differentiated in their thermal responses, thus rejecting our hypothesis of adaptation to climate‐of‐origin and suggesting a shared thermal niche. In addition, growth declines with warming above the temperature optima were driven by reductions in whole‐plant leaf area and increased respiratory carbon losses. The impacts of climate warming will nonetheless vary across the geographic range of this and other such species, depending primarily on each provenance's climate position on the temperature response curves for photosynthesis, respiration, and growth.     

A comparative ecological study of Norwegian mountain plants in relation to possible future climatic change

Mountain plants constitute an important part of the Norwegian flora. They are also believed to be the plant group in Norway most threatened by the expected climatic warming due to an enhanced greenhouse effect in the near future. In this study the distributions of 107 mountain Norwegian vascular plants were modelled in relation to present-day climate using Gaussian logit regression. Most species are found to have a surprisingly broad amplitude to mean July and January temperatures, suggesting that a 2°C increase in summer temperature and 4°C increase in winter temperature (as expected with a 2×CO₂ increase) may not have a dramatic direct effect on most of the species investigated. A comparative study between estimated July and January temperature optima and tolerances and other ecological attributes such as habitat characteristics, dispersal mechanisms, range sizes and other climatic optima and tolerances was done using multivariate analysis. The results suggest that species most vulnerable to climatic warming, namely the species with narrow July and January temperature tolerances, are characterized by small range sizes and small population sizes, i.e. they are nationally rare species. Furthermore, these vulnerable species are found in all habitats along the major moisture gradient in alpine vegetation. A classification of the species into Rabinowitz's seven forms of rarity confirms that the species most vulnerable to climatic warming are characterized by being habitat specialists with a small geographic range size.     

Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: ecological niche models,predicted geographic distributions,and climate change effects

Geographic and ecological distributions of three Lutzomyia sand flies that are cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in South America were analysed using ecological niche modelling. This new tool provides a large-scale perspective on species' geographic distributions, ecological and historical factors determining them, and their potential for change with expected environmental changes. As a first step, the ability of this technique to predict geographic distributions of the three species was tested statistically using two subsampling techniques: a random-selection technique that simulates 50% data density, and a quadrant-based technique that challenges the method to predict into broad unsampled regions. Predictivity under both test schemes was highly statistically significant. Visualisation of ecological niches provided insights into the ecological basis for distributional differences among species. Projections of potential geographic distributions across scenarios of global climate change suggested that only Lutzomyia whitmani is likely to be experiencing dramatic improvements in conditions in south-eastern Brazil, where cutaneous leishmaniasis appears to be re-emerging; Lutzomyia intermedia and Lutzomyia migonei may be seeing more subtle improvements in climatic conditions, but the implications are not straightforward. More generally, this technique offers the possibility of new views into the distributional ecology of disease, vector, and reservoir species.     

Warming effects on consumption and intraspecific interference competition depend on predator metabolism

1.?Model analyses show that the stability of population dynamics and food web persistence increase with the strength of interference competition. Despite this critical importance for community stability, little is known about how external factors such as the environmental temperature affect intraspecific interference competition. 2.?We aimed to fill this void by studying the functional responses of two ground beetle species of different body size, Pterostichus melanarius and Poecilus versicolor. These functional response experiments were replicated across four predator densities and two temperatures to address the impact of temperature on intraspecific interference competition. 3.?We generally expected that warming should increase the speed of movement, encounter rates and in consequence interference among predator individuals. In our experiment, this expectation was supported by the results obtained for the larger predator, P.?melanarius, whereas the opposite pattern characterized the interference behaviour of the smaller predator P.?versicolor. 4.?These results suggest potentially nontrivial implications for the effects of environmental temperature on intraspecific interference competition, for which we propose an explanation based on the different sensitivity to warming of metabolic rates of both species. As expected, increasing temperature led to stronger interference competition of the larger species, P.?melanarius, which exhibited a weaker increase in metabolic rate with increasing temperature. The stronger increase in the metabolic rate of the smaller predator, P.?versicolor, had to be compensated by increasing searching activity for prey, which did not leave time for increasing interference. 5.?Together, these results suggest that any generalization how interference competition responds to warming should also take the species' metabolic response to temperature increases into account.     

Scaling between macro- to microscale climatic data reveals strong phylogenetic inertia in niche evolution in plethodontid salamanders

Macroclimatic niches are indirect and potentially inadequate predictors of the realized environmental conditions that many species experience. Consequently, analyses of niche evolution based on macroclimatic data alone may incompletely represent the evolutionary dynamics of species niches. Yet, understanding how an organisms’ climatic (Grinnellian) niche responds to changing macroclimatic conditions is of vital importance for predicting their potential response to global change. In this study, we integrate microclimatic and macroclimatic data across 26 species of plethodontid salamanders to portray the relationship between microclimatic niche evolution in response to changing macroclimate. We demonstrate stronger phylogenetic signal in microclimatic niche variables than at the macroclimatic scale. Even so, we find that the microclimatic niche tracks climatic changes at the macroscale, but with a phylogenetic lag at million-year timescales. We hypothesize that behavioral tracking of the microclimatic niche over space and phenology generates the lag: salamanders preferentially select microclimates similar to their ancestral conditions rather than adapting with changes in physiology. We demonstrate that macroclimatic variables are weak predictors of niche evolution and that incorporating spatial scale into analyses of niche evolution is critical for predicting responses to climate change.     

Climatic niche divergence explains angiosperm diversification across clades in China

Diversification rates are critically important for understanding patterns of species richness among clades. However, the effects of climatic niche width on plant diversification rates remain to be elucidated. Based on the phylogenetic, climatic, and distributional information of angiosperms in China, a total of 26 906 species from 182 families were included in this study. We aimed to test relationships between diversification rate and climatic niche width and climatic niche width related variables (including climatic niche divergence, climatic niche position, geographic extent, and climatic niche evolutionary rate) using phylogenetic methods. We found that climatic niche divergence had the largest unique contribution to the diversification rate, while the unique effects of climatic niche width, climatic niche position, geographic extent, and climatic niche evolutionary rate on the diversification rate were negligible. We also observed that the relationship between diversification rate and climatic niche divergence was significantly stronger than the null assumption (artefactual relationship between diversification and clade-level climatic niche width by sampling more species). Our study supports the hypothesis that wider family climatic niche widths explain faster diversification rates through a higher climatic niche divergence rather than through higher geographic extent, higher climatic niche evolutionary rate, or separated climatic niche position. Hence, the results provide a potential explanation for large-scale diversity patterns within families of plants.     

On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change

Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called 'no-analogue' communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences.     

Relating habitat and climatic niches in birds

Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of habitat and climate changes has become a major challenge in ecology and conservation biology. However, the effects of climatic and habitat gradients on species distributions have generally been considered separately. Here, we explore the relationships between the habitat and thermal dimensions of the ecological niche in European common birds. Using data from the French Breeding Bird Survey, a large-scale bird monitoring program, we correlated the habitat and thermal positions and breadths of 74 bird species, controlling for life history traits and phylogeny. We found that cold climate species tend to have niche positions in closed habitats, as expected by the conjunction of the biogeographic history of birds' habitats, and their current continent-scale gradients. We also report a positive correlation between thermal and habitat niche breadths, a pattern consistent with macroecological predictions concerning the processes shaping species' distributions. Our results suggest that the relationships between the climatic and habitat components of the niche have to be taken into account to understand and predict changes in species' distributions.     

Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change

The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus). Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004) further shows that: (i) existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii) interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii) temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv) most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced changes to the realized environmental space. Such insights may be used to conceptualize mechanistic climatic niche models in birds and other taxa.     

Range size heritability in Carnivora is driven by geographic constraints

Range size heritability refers to an intriguing pattern where closely related species occupy geographic ranges of similar extent. Its existence may indicate selection on traits emergent only at the species level, with interesting consequences for evolutionary processes. We explore whether range size heritability may be attributable to the fact that range size is largely driven by the size of geographic domains (i.e., continents, biomes, areas given by species' climatic tolerance) that tend to be similar in phylogenetically related species. Using a well-resolved phylogeny of Carnivora, we show that range sizes are indeed constrained by geographic domains and that the phylogenetic signal in range sizes diminishes if the domain sizes are accounted for. Moreover, more detailed delimitation of species' geographic domain leads to a weaker signal in range size heritability, indicating the importance of definition of the null model against which the pattern is tested. Our findings do not reject the hypothesis of range size heritability but rather unravel its underlying mechanisms. Additional analyses imply that evolutionary conservatism in niche breadth delimits the species' geographic domain, which in turn shapes the species' range size. Range size heritability patterns thus emerge as a consequence of this interplay between evolutionary and geographic constraints.     

Contrasting responses of migration strategies in two European thrushes to climate change

Migration is a widespread strategy that enables animals to escape harsh winter conditions. It has been well documented that migration phenology in birds is changing in response to recent climate warming in the northern hemisphere. Despite the existence of large temporal and geographical scale ringing data on birds in Europe, changes in migration strategies in relation to climate warming have not been well studied, mainly because of a lack of appropriate statistical methods. In this paper, we develop a method that enables us to investigate temporal changes in migration strategies from recoveries of dead ringed birds. We estimated migration probability as the ratio between recovery probabilities of conspecific birds originating from different countries but potentially wintering in the same country. We applied this method to two European thrushes: the entirely migrant redwing Turdus iliacus , and the partially migrant blackbird T. merula . We tested for an immediate and a 1-year lagged relationship between our migration probability and climatic covariates (i.e. mean winter temperature in France and the North Atlantic Oscillation). Using ringing-recovery data collected in Finland, Germany, Switzerland and France from 1970 to 1999, we detected contrasting responses in these two species, likely related to their different migratory behaviours. Both species showed a decline in the probability for northern and eastern birds to winter in France. The entirely migratory redwing exhibited a year-to-year plastic response to climate, whereas the decline in the partially migrant blackbird was smooth, suggesting underlying genetic processes. The proposed method, thus, allows us to identify useful indicators of climatic impacts on migration strategies, as well as highlighting differences between closely related species.     

MigClim: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Aim Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distributions using models based on ecological niche theory, but most of them have ignored dispersal‐limitations, assuming dispersal to be either unlimited or null. Depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under‐ or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of ‘potentially suitable’ and ‘potentially colonizable’ habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed Mig Clim, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. Mig Clim implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, landscape fragmentation or long‐distance dispersal. Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using our Mig Clim model, several simulations were run for two virtual species by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the 100‐year period 2001–2100 and three different IPCC‐based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Results of dispersal‐limited projections were compared with unlimited and no‐dispersal projections. Results Our simulations indicate that: (1) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using Mig Clim can differ significantly (up to more than 95% difference in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (2) this divergence increases under more extreme climate warming scenarios and over longer time periods; and (3) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be as large as the one related to dispersal parameters. Main conclusions Accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections of species distribution under climate change scenarios.