Predicting ecosystem stability from community composition and biodiversity

As biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate, an important current scientific challenge is to understand and predict the consequences of biodiversity loss. Here, we develop a theory that predicts the temporal variability of community biomass from the properties of individual component species in monoculture. Our theory shows that biodiversity stabilises ecosystems through three main mechanisms: (1) asynchrony in species’ responses to environmental fluctuations, (2) reduced demographic stochasticity due to overyielding in species mixtures and (3) reduced observation error (including spatial and sampling variability). Parameterised with empirical data from four long‐term grassland biodiversity experiments, our prediction explained 22–75% of the observed variability, and captured much of the effect of species richness. Richness stabilised communities mainly by increasing community biomass and reducing the strength of demographic stochasticity. Our approach calls for a re‐evaluation of the mechanisms explaining the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem stability.     

Forage plants of an Arctic‐nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds,potentially disrupting migration phenology

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen‐rich forage plants, following a “green wave” of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open‐top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0–1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop‐over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen‐rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1–2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.     

环境因子对东洞庭湖优势冬季水鸟分布的影响

东洞庭湖国家级自然保护区是我国乃至全球湿地水鸟的重要越冬栖息地,研究水鸟群落与环境因子之间的关系,对修复鸟类栖息地具有重要意义.2010和2011年冬季分别对东洞庭湖湿地冬季水鸟进行调查,采用典范对应分析(CCA)分析环境因子与优势水鸟分布的关系,采用偏CCA评估各环境因子的影响强度.结果表明： 到道路距离、到居民距离、斑块密度、植被类型数、水面面积和苔草面积对东洞庭湖冬季水鸟分布具有显著影响(P<0.05),其影响强度为苔草面积>斑块密度>到居民距离>植被类型数>水面面积>到道路距离,苔草面积和斑块密度对水鸟分布的影响达极显著水平(P<0.01),是影响东洞庭湖湿地冬季水鸟的主要环境因子;景观多样性和芦苇面积对水鸟分布的影响未达到显著水平(P>0.05).回归分析结果显示,环境因子对不同水鸟丰富度的影响不同,白琵鹭、罗纹鸭和黑腹滨鹬丰富度随苔草面积增大而减小,随斑块密度增大而增大;豆雁、白额雁、小白额雁和绿翅鸭丰富度随苔草面积增大而增大,随斑块密度增大而减小.东洞庭湖冬季水鸟分布是由以苔草面积、斑块密度为主的多环境因子综合作用的结果.     

Reproductive performance in arctic-nesting geese is influenced by environmental conditions during the wintering, breeding and migration seasons

Arctic regions are expected to experience pronounced changes in climate during the current century. Large numbers of waterfowl breed in these regions, and any climate induced changes are likely to have consequences for their demographics. Moreover, environmental changes experienced during migration and on the wintering grounds may also have impacts but remain poorly understood.
We investigate the role of climate variation during breeding, migration and wintering, while controlling for possible effects of mammalian predation and density dependence on the reproduction of Svalbard breeding barnacle geese Branta leucopsis using 40 years of observations.
Breeding success was significantly positively correlated with temperature on both the wintering grounds (Scotland) and breeding grounds (Svalbard), but negatively correlated with the number of days of strong cross-winds during the northward migration period. These factors remained significant when controlling for a strong negative effect of population size.
Goose reproduction on Svalbard was also linked to fluctuations in arctic fox Alopex lagopus populations occurring elsewhere in the arctic. This reveals the importance of mammalian predation, which may vary as a non-linear function of conditions within the wider arctic region.
Climate predictions were used to project barnacle goose reproduction and hence the population until 2050. These simulations suggest the population will grow at between 1% and 2.7% per year, in response to increasing temperatures. However, it is harder to predict how changes in other factors, such as reductions in sea ice, may impact on arctic breeding birds.     

Disentangling the effects of environmental conditions on wintering and breeding grounds on age‐specific survival rates in a trans‐Saharan migratory raptor

Migratory species are subject to environmental variability occurring on breeding and wintering grounds. Estimating the relative contribution of environmental factors experienced sequentially during breeding and wintering, and their potential interaction, to the variation of survival is crucial to predict population viability of migratory species. Here we investigated this issue for the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, a trans‐Saharan migrant. We analysed capture–recapture data from a 29‐year long monitoring of wing‐tagged offspring and adults at two study sites in France (Rochefort‐RO and Maine‐et‐Loire‐ML). The study period covers a climatic shift occurring in the Sahel with increasing rainfall following a period of droughts (Sahel greening). We found that harriers’ adult survival in RO (between 1988 and 2005) varied over time and was sensitive to the interaction between the amount of rainfall in the Sahel and the annual mean breeding success, two proxies of prey availability. The occurrence of adverse conditions on breeding and wintering grounds in the same year decreased survival from 0.70–0.77 to 0.48 ± 0.05. Juvenile survival in RO was slightly more sensitive to conditions in Europe than in the Sahel. Unexpectedly, lower survival rates were found in years with higher mean breeding success, suggesting compensatory density feedbacks may operate. By contrast, adult survival in ML, monitored between 1999 and 2017, was higher compared to RO (0.76 ± 0.03 versus 0.66 ± 0.02), remained constant and unaffected by any proxy of prey availability. This difference seems consistent with the fact that harriers in ML experienced better and especially less variable environmental conditions during breeding and wintering seasons compared to RO. Overall, we showed that survival of a migratory bird is sensitive to the level of variability in environmental conditions and that adverse conditions on wintering grounds can amplify the negative effects of conditions during the previous breeding season on birds’ survival.     

Breeding origin and migration pattern of dunlin (Calidris alpina) revealed by mitochondrial DNA analysis

The large-scale migration of birds has been studied extensively by recoveries of ringed birds. However, there is very little ringing data from the arctic breeding grounds of waders. Here, the migration pattern of the dunlin, Calidris alpina, is studied with population genetic markers, using haplotype frequencies to estimate the breeding origin of migrating and wintering populations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction analysis of DNA from the mitochondrial control region was used to study the breeding origins of morphologically similar winter populations in the western Palaearctic, and to describe the population structure of the dunlin during winter. Also migrating dunlin from various stopover sites in Europe, Africa and Asia, were analysed with respect to their mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes. The genetic markers clearly show that the dunlin has a parallel migration system, with populations breeding in the western Palaearctic wintering mainly in the western part of the wintering range, and dunlin populations breeding further east wintering further east. The results also show that the distance between breeding and wintering area increases eastwards in this region.     

Influence of migrant tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus) and Canada geese (Branta canadensis) on aquatic vegetation at Long Point, Lake Erie, Ontario

Numerous studies have shown that large, herbivorous waterfowl can reduce quantity of aquatic plants during the breeding or wintering season, but relatively few document herbivory effects at staging areas. This study was done to determine if feeding activities of tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) and Canada geese (Branta canadensis) had a measurable additive influence on the amount of aquatic plants, primarily muskgrass (Chara vulgaris), wild celery (Vallisneria americana), and sago pondweed (Potamogeton pectinatus), removed during the fall migration period at Long Point, Lake Erie, Ontario. Exclosure experiments done in fall 1998 and 1999 showed that, as compared to ducks and abiotic factors, these two large herbivorous waterfowl did not have any additional impact on above or below ground biomass of those aquatic plants. As expected, however, there were substantial seasonal reductions in above-ground and below-ground biomass of aquatic plants in wetlands that were heavily used by all waterfowl. We suggest that differences in large- and small-scale habitat use, feeding activity, and food preferences between tundra swans and other smaller waterfowl as well as compensatory herbivory contributed to our main finding that large waterfowl did not increase fall reductions of Chara spp, V. Americana, and P. pectinatus biomass.     

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Migration and wintering strategies in vulnerable Mediterranean Osprey populations

A broad range of migration strategies exist in avian species, and different strategies can occur in different populations of the same species. For the breeding Osprey Pandion haliaetus populations of the Mediterranean, sporadic observations of ringed birds collected in the past suggested variations in migratory and wintering behaviour. We used GPS tracking data from 41 individuals from Corsica, the Balearic Islands and continental Italy to perform the first detailed analysis of the migratory and wintering strategies of these Osprey populations. Ospreys showed heterogeneous migratory behaviour, with 73% of the individuals migrating and the remaining 27% staying all year round at breeding sites. For migratory individuals, an extremely short duration of migration (5.2 ± 2.6 days) was recorded. Mediterranean Ospreys were able to perform long non‐stop flights over the open sea, sometimes overnight. They also performed pre‐ and post‐migratory trips to secondary sites, before or after crossing the sea during both autumn and spring migration. Ospreys spent the winter at temperate latitudes and showed high plasticity in habitat selection, using marine bays, coastal lagoons/marshland and inland freshwater sites along the coasts of different countries of the Mediterranean basin. Movements and home‐range areas were restricted during the wintering season. The short duration of trips and high levels of variability in migratory routes and wintering grounds revealed high behavioural plasticity among individuals, probably promoted by the relatively low seasonal variability in ecological conditions throughout the year in the Mediterranean region, and weak competition for non‐breeding sites. We stress the importance of considering the diversity in migration strategies and the particular ecology of these vulnerable populations, especially in relation to proactive management measures for the species at the scale of the Mediterranean region.     

Temperature‐related increases in grass growth and greater competition for food drive earlier migrational departure of wintering Whooper Swans

Understanding the departure decisions of migratory birds is critical for determining how changing climatic conditions will influence subsequent arrival times on the breeding grounds. A long‐term dataset (1972–2008) of Whooper Swan Cygnus cygnus departure dates from a wintering site in Ireland was used to assess the factors determining the timing of migration. Early and late migrating swans showed different departure patterns. Earlier wintering ground departure was more pronounced for the first 50% of the population than the last 10% of departing individuals. Earlier departure was associated with an increase in February temperatures at the wintering site for all departure phases except the date when the last individual departed. The date by which the first 50% of Swans had departed was earlier with increasing numbers of wintering Swans, suggesting that competition on the wintering grounds may further influence the timing of departure. The results also suggested that departure is mediated by the influence of spring temperature on food resources, with increased February grass growth in warmer years enabling earlier departure of migrating Swans. To determine why arrival dates in the breeding ground have altered, environmental conditions in the wintering grounds must be taken into account.     

Carryover effects associated with winter location affect fitness, social status, and population dynamics in a long-distance migrant

We used observations of individually marked female black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) at three wintering lagoons on the Pacific coast of Baja California-Laguna San Ignacio (LSI), Laguna Ojo de Liebre (LOL), and Bahía San Quintín (BSQ)-and the Tutakoke River breeding colony in Alaska to assess hypotheses about carryover effects on breeding and distribution of individuals among wintering areas. We estimated transition probabilities from wintering locations to breeding and nonbreeding by using multistratum robust-design capture-mark-recapture models. We also examined the effect of breeding on migration to wintering areas to assess the hypothesis that individuals in family groups occupied higher-quality wintering locations. We used 4,538 unique female brant in our analysis of the relationship between winter location and breeding probability. All competitive models of breeding probability contained additive effects of wintering location and the 1997-1998 El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on probability of breeding. Probability of breeding in non-ENSO years was [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] for females wintering at BSQ, LOL, and LSI, respectively. After the 1997-1998 ENSO event, breeding probability was between 2% (BSQ) and 38% (LOL) lower than in other years. Individuals that bred had the highest probability of migrating the next fall to the wintering area producing the highest probability of breeding.     

Influence of fish assemblage and shallow lake productivity on waterfowl communities in the Boreal Transition Zone of western Canada

1. Shallow lakes in the Boreal Transition Zone (BTZ) in Alberta, Canada are naturally productive systems that provide important breeding and moulting habitat for many waterfowl (Anseriformes). To examine the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors on waterfowl population densities, species richness and community composition, we surveyed 30 shallow lakes and evaluated the relationships among fish communities, lake characteristics and waterfowl in both breeding and moulting habitat. Shallow lakes were either fishless (n = 15), contained only small‐bodied fishes (n = 10) or contained large‐bodied, mostly predatory, fish in addition to small‐bodied fish (n = 5). 2. Environmental factors, including water colour, submerged aquatic vegetation, lake area and potassium, explained 24.3% of the variation in breeding waterfowl communities. Fish assemblage contributed independently to a small but significant proportion (13.4%) of the variation, while 13.8% of the explained variation was shared between environmental factors and fish assemblage. In total, 51.5% of the variation in breeding waterfowl communities was explained. 3. Overall, 55.5% of the total variation in moulting waterfowl communities was explained. Environment alone [especially total phosphorus, lake area, maximum depth and dissolved organic carbon (DOC)] and variation shared by fish and environment similarly accounted for most of the explained variation in moulting waterfowl communities (21.7% and 25.7% respectively), while fish assemblage was only one‐third as important (8.1%). 4. Both breeding and moulting waterfowl densities increased with lake productivity, even in eutrophic and hypereutrophic lakes. Breeding waterfowl density was also twice as great in fishless lakes than in lakes with fish, after accounting for lake area. 5. Certain waterfowl taxa were linked to fishless lakes, especially in the moulting season. Canvasback and moulting ring‐necked ducks were linked to small‐bodied fish lakes, whereas moulting common goldeneye were indicators of large‐bodied fish lakes. Knowledge of fish presence and species composition can therefore help guide conservation and management of waterfowl habitat in western Canada. Our results suggest that management efforts to maintain the most productive waterfowl habitat in the BTZ should focus on smaller, shallow, fishless lakes, particularly given that larger fish‐bearing systems have greater regulatory protection.     

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Seasonal distribution of the invasive snail, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bithynia tentaculata,</Emphasis> within infested waterbodies in Minnesota,USA, including waterfowl migration

The introduction of the invasive faucet snail (Bithynia tentaculata) and its associated trematodes, Cyathocotyle bushiensis, Sphaeridiotrema spp., and Leyogonimus polyoon, has resulted in recurring waterfowl die-offs during spring and fall migration in the Great Lakes Region, especially of Lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and American coots (Fulica americana). Here we evaluated faucet snail habitat use and abundance in infested waterbodies in northcentral Minnesota (USA) during spring, summer, and fall of 2011–2013. We collected snail samples, along with data on abiotic and biotic variables, at 12 snail-infested waterbodies. We used Generalized Estimating Equations to develop models that explain variability in the distribution and abundance of snails within waterbodies. Models containing water depth consistently received considerable support in waterbodies where depth varied substantially; however the specific shape of these relationships varied among waterbodies. Snails used a wide range of depths, but were more likely to be present in deep portions (~6 m) of large lakes in all seasons. We found seasonal differences in the location of rafts of migrating scaup, with use of areas closer to shore in the spring, and use of areas shallower than those used most by faucet snails. Patterns in snail distribution likely influenced the availability of snails for consumption by migrating waterfowl; differences in portions of large lakes used by migratory waterfowl as stopover sites and by faucet snails may reduce exposure of migrating waterfowl to trematodes in infested lakes. However, some spatio-temporal overlap between snails and scaup occurs and explains the continuing loss of waterfowl to trematodiasis.     

Avian cholera in waterfowl in Saskatchewan, spring 1977.

Avian cholera was diagnosed in lesser snow geese (Anser c. caerulescens), Ross' geese (Anser rossii) and individuals of several other waterfowl species in a small area of south-western Saskatchewan over a 1 month period during the 1977 spring migration. Approximately 250 dead birds were found. This is apparently the first time avian cholera has been reported in migrating waterfowl in Canada. The site of the mortality was midway between the wintering and nesting areas of the two principal species, and the significance of the occurrence of the disease this far north is discussed.     

Population fluctuations and regulation in great snipe: a time-series analysis

1. During the last centuries, the breeding range of the great snipe Gallinago media has declined dramatically in the western part of its distribution. To examine present population dynamics in the Scandinavian mountains, we collected and analysed a 19-year time series of counts of great snipe males at leks in central Norway, 1987-2005. 2. The population showed large annual fluctuations in the number of males displaying at lek sites (range 45-90 males at the peak of the mating season), but no overall trend. 3. We detected presence of direct density-dependent mechanisms regulating this population. Inclusion of the density-dependent term in a Ricker-type model significantly improved the fit with observed data (evaluated with Parametric Bootstrap Likelihood Ratio tests and Akaike's Information Criterion for small sample size). 4. An analysis of (a number of a priori likely) environmental covariates suggests that the population dynamics were affected by conditions influencing reproduction and survival of offspring during the summer, but not by conditions influencing survival at the wintering grounds in Africa. This is in contrast to many altricial birds breeding in the northern hemisphere, and supports the idea that population dynamics of migratory nidifugous birds are more influenced by conditions during reproduction. 5. Inclusion of these external factors into our model improved the detectability of density dependence. This illustrates that allowing for external effects may increase statistical power of density dependence tests and thus be of particular importance in relatively short time series. 6. In our best model of the population dynamics, two likely density-independent offspring survival covariates explained 47.3% of the variance in great snipe numbers (predation pressure estimated by willow grouse reproductive success and food availability estimated by the amount of precipitation in June), whereas density dependence explained 35.5%. Demographic stochasticity and unidentified environmental stochasticity may account for the remaining 17.2%.     

Environmentally‐induced noise dampens and reddens with increasing trophic level in a complex food web

Stochastic variability of key abiotic factors including temperature, precipitation and the availability of light and nutrients greatly influences species’ ecological function and evolutionary fate. Despite such influence, ecologists have typically ignored the effect of abiotic stochasticity on the structure and dynamics of ecological networks. Here we help to fill that gap by advancing the theory of how abiotic stochasticity, in the form of environmental noise, affects the population dynamics of species within food webs. We do this by analysing an allometric trophic network model of Lake Constance subjected to positive (red), negative (blue), and non‐autocorrelated (white) abiotic temporal variability (noise) introduced into the carrying capacity of basal species. We found that, irrespective of the colour of the introduced noise, the temporal variability of the species biomass within the network both reddens (i.e. its positive autocorrelation increases) and dampens (i.e. the magnitude of variation decreases) as the environmental noise is propagated through the food web by its feeding interactions from the bottom to the top. The reddening reflects a buffering of the noise‐induced population variability by complex food web dynamics such that non‐autocorrelated oscillations of noise‐free deterministic dynamics become positively autocorrelated. Our research helps explain frequently observed red variability of natural populations by suggesting that ecological processing of environmental noise through food webs with a range of species’ body sizes reddens population variability in nature.     

Extinctions in competitive communities forced by coloured environmental variation

Understanding the relationships between environmental fluctuations, population dynamics and species interactions in natural communities is of vital theoretical and practical importance. This knowledge is essential in assessing extinction risks in communities that are, for example, pressed by changing environmental conditions and increasing exploitation. We developed a model of density dependent population renewal, in a Lotka–Volterra competitive community context, to explore the significance of interspecific interactions, demographic stochasticity, population growth rate and species abundance on extinction risk in populations under various autocorrelation (colour) regimes of environmental forcing. These factors were evaluated in two cases, where either a single species or the whole community was affected by the external forcing. Species' susceptibility to environmental noise with different autocorrelation structure depended markedly on population dynamics, species' position in the abundance hierarchy and how similarly community members responded to external forcing. We also found interactions between demographic stochasticity and environmental noise leading to a reversal in extinction probabilities from under- to overcompensatory dynamics. We compare our results with studies of single species populations and contrast possible mechanisms leading to extinctions. Our findings indicate that abundance rank, the form of population dynamics, and the colour of environmental variation interact in affecting species extinction risk. These interactions are further modified by interspecific interactions within competitive communities as the interactions filter and modulate the environmental noise.     

Some parasitic and infectious diseases in waterfowl in Oklahoma.

Blood films and serum samples from free-ranging waterfowl wintering in and migrating through Oklahoma were examined for hematozoa and tested for antibody responses to Newcastle disease virus (NDV) and type-A influenza. One-hundred-eleven of 728 birds (15.24%) were positive for 1 or more hematozoa. Serologic testing revealed 11 of 280 (3.93%) positive for antibody to NDV and 5 of 171 (2.95%) positive for antibody to type-A influenza.