Habitat connectivity is determined by the scale of habitat loss and dispersal strategy

Understanding factors that ameliorate the impact of habitat loss is a major focus of conservation research. One key factor influencing species persistence and evolution is the ability to disperse across increasingly patchy landscapes. Here we ask whether interpatch distance (a proxy for habitat loss) and dispersal strategy can interact to form thresholds where connectivity breaks down. We assayed dispersal across a range of interpatch distances in fruit flies carrying allelic variants of a gene known to underlie differences in dispersal strategy. Dispersal‐limited flies experienced a distinct negative threshold in connectivity at greater interpatch distances, and this was not observed in more dispersive flies. Consequently, this differential response of dispersal‐limited and more dispersive flies to decreasing connectivity suggests that habitat loss could have important implications on the evolution and maintenance of genetic variation underlying dispersal strategy.     

Modelling and analysing evolution of dispersal in populations at expanding range boundaries

Abstract 1. Species would be expected to shift northwards in response to current climate warming, but many are failing to do so because of fragmentation of breeding habitats. Dispersal is important for colonisation and an individual‐based spatially explicit model was developed to investigate impacts of habitat availability on the evolution of dispersal in expanding populations. Model output was compared with field data from the speckled wood butterfly Pararge aegeria, which currently is expanding its range in Britain. 2. During range expansion, models simulated positive linear relationships between dispersal and distance from the seed location. This pattern was observed regardless of quantity (100% to 10% habitat availability) or distribution (random vs. gradient distribution) of habitat, although higher dispersal evolved at expanding range margins in landscapes with greater quantity of habitat and in gradient landscapes. Increased dispersal was no longer evident in any landscape once populations had reached equilibrium; dispersal values returned to those of seed populations. However, in landscapes with the least quantity of habitat, reduced dispersal (below that of seed populations) was observed at equilibrium. 3. Evolutionary changes in adult flight morphology were examined in six populations of P. aegeria along a transect from the distribution core to an expanding range margin in England (spanning a latitudinal distance of >200 km). Empirical data were in agreement with model output and showed increased dispersal ability (larger and broader thoraxes, smaller abdomens, higher wing aspect ratios) with increasing distance from the distribution core. Increased dispersal ability was evident in populations from areas colonised >30 years previously, although dispersal changes were generally evident only in females. 4. Evolutionary increases in dispersal ability in expanding populations may help species track future climate changes and counteract impacts of habitat fragmentation by promoting colonisation. However, at the highest levels of habitat loss, increased dispersal was less evident during expansion and reduced dispersal was observed at equilibrium indicating that, for many species, continued habitat fragmentation is likely to outweigh any benefits from dispersal.     

Non-random dispersal in the butterfly Maniola jurtina: implications for metapopulation models

The dispersal patterns of animals are important in metapopulation ecology because they affect the dynamics and survival of populations. Theoretical models assume random dispersal but little is known in practice about the dispersal behaviour of individual animals or the strategy by which dispersers locate distant habitat patches. In the present study, we released individual meadow brown butterflies (Maniola jurtina) in a non-habitat and investigated their ability to return to a suitable habitat. The results provided three reasons for supposing that meadow brown butterflies do not seek habitat by means of random flight. First, when released within the range of their normal dispersal distances, the butterflies orientated towards suitable habitat at a higher rate than expected at random. Second, when released at larger distances from their habitat, they used a non-random, systematic, search strategy in which they flew in loops around the release point and returned periodically to it. Third, butterflies returned to a familiar habitat patch rather than a non-familiar one when given a choice. If dispersers actively orientate towards or search systematically for distant habitat, this may be problematic for existing metapopulation models, including models of the evolution of dispersal rates in metapopulations.     

Host plant density and patch isolation drive occupancy and abundance at a butterfly's northern range margin

Marginal populations are usually small, fragmented, and vulnerable to extinction, which makes them particularly interesting from a conservation point of view. They are also the starting point of range shifts that result from climate change, through a process involving colonization of newly suitable sites at the cool margin of species distributions. Hence, understanding the processes that drive demography and distribution at high‐latitude populations is essential to forecast the response of species to global changes. We investigated the relative importance of solar irradiance (as a proxy for microclimate), habitat quality, and connectivity on occupancy, abundance, and population stability at the northern range margin of the Oberthür's grizzled skipper butterfly Pyrgus armoricanus. For this purpose, butterfly abundance was surveyed in a habitat network consisting of 50 habitat patches over 12 years. We found that occupancy and abundance (average and variability) were mostly influenced by the density of host plants and the spatial isolation of patches, while solar irradiance and grazing frequency had only an effect on patch occupancy. Knowing that the distribution of host plants extends further north, we hypothesize that the actual variable limiting the northern distribution of P. armoricanus might be its dispersal capacity that prevents it from reaching more northern habitat patches. The persistence of this metapopulation in the face of global changes will thus be fundamentally linked to the maintenance of an efficient network of habitats.     

Interior Least Tern (Sternula antillarum) breeding distribution and ecology: implications for population‐level studies and the evaluation of alternative management strategies on large,regulated rivers

Interior Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) (ILT) are colonial, fish‐eating birds that breed within active channels of large sand bed rivers of the Great Plains and in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Multipurpose dams, irrigation structures, and engineered navigation systems have been present on these rivers for many decades. Despite severe alteration of channels and flow regimes, regulation era floods have remained effective at maintaining bare sandbar nesting habitat on many river segments and ILT populations have been stable or expanding since they were listed as endangered in 1985. We used ILT breeding colony locations from 2002 to 2012 and dispersal information to identify 16 populations and 48 subpopulations. More than 90% of ILT and >83% of river km with suitable nesting habitat occur within the two largest populations. However, replicate populations remain throughout the entire historical, geophysical, and ecological range of ILT. Rapid colonization of anthropogenic habitats in areas that were not historically occupied suggests metapopulation dynamics. The highest likelihood of demographic connectivity among ILT populations occurs across the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi River, which may be demographically connected with Least Tern populations on the Gulf Coast. Paired ecological and bird population models are needed to test whether previously articulated threats limit ILT population growth and to determine if management intervention is necessary and where. Given current knowledge, the largest sources of model uncertainty will be: (1) uncertainty in relationships between high flow events and subsequent sandbar characteristics and (2) uncertainty regarding the frequency of dispersal among population subunits. We recommend research strategies to reduce these uncertainties.     

The evolution of an 'intelligent' dispersal strategy: biased, correlated random walks in patchy landscapes

Theoretical work exploring dispersal evolution focuses on the emigration rate of individuals and typically assumes that movement occurs either at random to any other patch or to one of the nearest‐neighbour patches. There is a lack of work exploring the process by which individuals move between patches, and how this process evolves. This is of concern because any organism that can exert control over dispersal direction can potentially evolve efficiencies in locating patches, and the process by which individuals find new patches will potentially have major effects on metapopulation dynamics and gene flow. Here, we take an initial step towards filling this knowledge gap. To do this we constructed a continuous space population model, in which individuals each carry heritable trait values that specify the characteristics of the biased correlated random walk they use to disperse from their natal patch. We explore how the evolution of the random walk depends upon the cost of dispersal, the density of patches in the landscape, and the emigration rate. The clearest result is that highly correlated walks always evolved (individuals tended to disperse in relatively straight lines from their natal patch), reflecting the efficiency of straight‐line movement. In our models, more costly dispersal resulted in walks with higher correlation between successive steps. However, the exact walk that evolved also depended upon the density of suitable habitat patches, with low density habitat evolving more biased walks (individuals which orient towards suitable habitat at quite large distances from that habitat). Thus, low density habitat will tend to develop individuals which disperse efficiently between adjacent habitat patches but which only rarely disperse to more distant patches; a result that has clear implications for metapopulation theory. Hence, an understanding of the movement behaviour of dispersing individuals is critical for robust long‐term predictions of population dynamics in fragmented landscapes.     

Scales and costs of habitat selection in heterogeneous landscapes

Summary Two scales of habitat selection are likely to influence patterns of animal density in heterogeneous landscapes. At one scale, habitat selection is determined by the differential use of foraging locations within a home range. At a larger scale, habitat selection is determined by dispersal and the ability to relocate the home range. The limits of both scales must be known for accurate assessments of habitat selection and its role in effecting spatial patterns in abundance. Isodars, which specify the relationships between population density in two habitats such that the expected reproductive success of an individual is the same in both, allow us to distinguish the two scales of habitat selection because each scale has different costs. In a two-habitat environment, the cost of rejecting one of the habitats within a home range can be expressed as a devaluation of the other, because, for example, fine-grained foragers must travel through both. At the dispersal scale, the cost of accepting a new home range in a different habitat has the opposite effect of inflating the value of the original habitat to compensate for lost evolutionary potential associated with relocating the home range. These costs produce isodars at the foraging scale with a lower intercept and slope than those at the dispersal scale.Empirical data on deer mice occupying prairie and badland habitats in southern Alberta confirm the ability of isodar analysis to differentiate between foraging and dispersal scales. The data suggest a foraging range of approximately 60 m, and an effective dispersal distance near 140 m. The relatively short dispersal distance implies that recent theories may have over-emphasized the role of habitat selection on local population dynamics. But the exchange of individuals between habitats sharing irregular borders may be substantial. Dispersal distance may thus give a false impression of the inability of habitat selection to help regulate population density.     

Propagule Limitation,Disparate Habitat Quality,and Variation in Phenotypic Selection at a Local Species Range Boundary

Adaptation to novel conditions beyond current range boundaries requires the presence of suitable sites within dispersal range, but may be impeded when emigrants encounter poor habitat and sharply different selection pressures. We investigated fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in ecological dynamics and selection at a local population boundary of the annual plant Gilia tricolor. In two years, we planted G. tricolor seeds in core habitat, margin habitat at the edge of the local range, and exterior habitat in order to measure spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality, opportunity for selection, and selection on phenotypic traits. We found a striking decline in average habitat quality with distance from the population core, yet some migrant seeds were successful in suitable, unoccupied microsites at and beyond the range boundary. Total and direct selection on four out of five measured phenotypic traits varied across habitat zones, as well as between years. Moreover, the margin habitat often exerted unique selection pressures that were not intermediate between core and exterior habitats. This study reveals that a combination of ecological and evolutionary forces, including propagule limitation, variation in habitat quality and spatial heterogeneity in phenotypic selection may reduce opportunities for adaptive range expansion, even across a very local population boundary.     

Importance of matrix permeability and quantity of core habitat for persistence of a threatened saltmarsh bird

Species habitat preferences can be obscured when individuals have been recorded in non‐core habitats because of dispersal, spillover effects or spatial errors in observation locations. Disentangling the direct effects of the habitats species are observed in from the effects of proximity to other nearby habitats is especially challenging in fragmented landscapes, as many fragmentation metrics are correlated and it is difficult to prove independent effects. In this paper we addressed this issue by comparing a number of models based on predefined ecological theories. We compared models based on quantity of core habitat surrounding observations, proximity to core habitat, or a combination of the two to explain the observed distribution of the saltmarsh inhabiting white‐fronted chat (Epthianura albifrons) in coastal New South Wales, Australia. Proximity to core habitat was considered as either Euclidean distance or cost distance, and models were assessed using Akaike's information criterion and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve on 10 random subsets of the data. We found that all models performed similarly, with the combination of cost distance and the quantity of saltmarsh performing better, but not significantly so. We compared the advantages and disadvantages of different models and also present a model averaged result. Our models suggested that the majority of saltmarshes in New South Wales were too small to have a large effect on probability of occurrence. As climate change is expected to further reduce the amount of available saltmarsh through continued mangrove incursion, coastal populations of the white‐fronted chat are expected to come under increasing threat. The conversion of grasslands to urban areas may also increase the effective distance between different populations of the species and reduce gene flow and rescue effects.     

How landscapes affect the evolution of dispersal behaviour in reef fishes: results from an individual‐based model

The vast majority of tropical reef fishes have a sedentary adult phase and pelagic larval phase that is potentially highly dispersive. Dispersal may be favoured by a wide range of factors including the arrangement of suitable habitat in space. In this paper the dispersal strategy of individuals is followed and allowed to evolve in a simplified model of three different landscapes: an enclosed sea, an open archipelago and a barrier reef. The three landscapes have very different characteristics, but all have similar spatial clumping of reef habitat. In all landscapes, as minimum time to settlement increases, evolved movement strategy also increases and longer settlement windows favour dispersal. In the archipelago movement is not maximized until the minimum pelagic duration is longer than in the other landscapes. The model predicts that, given the same pelagic duration, species from enclosed seas should have more dispersive behaviours than those from open archipelagos, because of the density of habitat and the aggregation of habitat in space affect the likelihood of larvae finding suitable habitat for settlement.     

Effect of dispersal at range edges on the structure of species ranges

Range edges are of particular interest to ecology because they hold key insights into the limits of the realized niche and associated population dynamics. A recent feature of Oikos summarized the state of the art on range edge ecology. While the typical question is what causes range edges, another important question is how range edges influence the distribution of abundances across a species geographic range when dispersal is present. We used a single species population dynamics model on a coupled-lattice to determine the effects of dispersal on peripheral populations as compared to populations at the core of the range. In the absence of resource gradients, the reduced neighborhood and thus lower connectivity or higher isolation among populations at the range edge alone led to significantly lower population sizes in the periphery of the range than in the core. Lower population sizes mean higher extinction risks and lower adaptability at the range edge, which could inhibit or slow range expansions, and thus effectively stabilize range edges. The strength of this effect depended on the potential population growth rate and the maximum dispersal distance. Lower potential population growth rates led to a stronger effect of dispersal resulting in a higher difference in population sizes between the two areas. The differential effect of dispersal on population sizes at the core and periphery of the range in the absence of resource gradients implies that traditional, habitat-based distribution models could result in misleading conclusions about the habitat quality in the periphery. Lower population sizes at the periphery are also relevant to conservation, because habitat removal not only eliminates populations but also creates new edges. Populations bordering these new edges may experience declines, due to their increased isolation.     

Population Dynamics of the Andean Lizard Anolis heterodermus: Fast‐slow Demographic Strategies in Fragmented Scrubland Landscapes

Habitat fragmentation and loss affect population stability and demographic processes, increasing the extinction risk of species. We studied Anolis heterodermus populations inhabiting large and small Andean scrubland patches in three fragmented landscapes in the Sabana de Bogotá (Colombia) to determine the effect of habitat fragmentation and loss on population dynamics. We used the capture‐mark‐recapture method and multistate models to estimate vital rates for each population. We estimated growth population rate and the most important processes that affect λ by elasticity analysis of vital rates. We tested the effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on vital rates of lizard populations. All six isolated populations showed a positive or an equilibrium growth rate (λ = 1), and the most important demographic process affecting λ was the growth to first reproduction. Populations from landscapes with less scrubland natural cover showed higher stasis of young adults. Populations in highly fragmented landscapes showed highest juvenile survival and growth population rates. Independent of the landscape's habitat configuration and connectivity, populations from larger scrubland patches showed low adult survivorship, but high transition rates. Populations varied from a slow strategy with low growth and delayed maturation in smaller patches to a fast strategy with high growth and early maturation in large patches. This variation was congruent with the fast‐slow continuum hypothesis and has serious implications for Andean lizard conservation and management strategies. We suggest that more stable lizard populations will be maintained if different management strategies are adopted according to patch area and habitat structure.     

Dispersal and gene flow in the rare, parasitic Large Blue butterfly Maculinea arion

Dispersal is crucial for gene flow and often determines the long‐term stability of meta‐populations, particularly in rare species with specialized life cycles. Such species are often foci of conservation efforts because they suffer disproportionally from degradation and fragmentation of their habitat. However, detailed knowledge of effective gene flow through dispersal is often missing, so that conservation strategies have to be based on mark–recapture observations that are suspected to be poor predictors of long‐distance dispersal. These constraints have been especially severe in the study of butterfly populations, where microsatellite markers have been difficult to develop. We used eight microsatellite markers to analyse genetic population structure of the Large Blue butterfly Maculinea arion in Sweden. During recent decades, this species has become an icon of insect conservation after massive decline throughout Europe and extinction in Britain followed by reintroduction of a seed population from the Swedish island of Öland. We find that populations are highly structured genetically, but that gene flow occurs over distances 15 times longer than the maximum distance recorded from mark–recapture studies, which can only be explained by maximum dispersal distances at least twice as large as previously accepted. However, we also find evidence that gaps between sites with suitable habitat exceeding ～20 km induce genetic erosion that can be detected from bottleneck analyses. Although further work is needed, our results suggest that M. arion can maintain fully functional metapopulations when they consist of optimal habitat patches that are no further apart than ～10 km.     

Identifying core habitats and corridors for giant pandas by combining multiscale random forest and connectivity analysis

Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely acknowledged as the main driver of the decline of giant panda populations. The Chinese government has made great efforts to protect this charming species and has made remarkable achievements, such as population growth and habitat expansion. However, habitat fragmentation has not been reversed. Protecting giant pandas in a large spatial extent needs to identify core habitat patches and corridors connecting them. This study used an equal‐sampling multiscale random forest habitat model to predict a habitat suitability map for the giant panda. Then, we applied the resistant kernel method and factorial least‐cost path analysis to identify core habitats connected by panda dispersal and corridors among panda occurrences, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the effectiveness of current protected areas in representing core habitats and corridors. Our results showed high scale dependence of giant panda habitat selection. Giant pandas strongly respond to bamboo percentage and elevation at a relatively fine scale (1 km), whereas they respond to anthropogenic factors at a coarse scale (≥2 km). Dispersal ability has significant effects on core habitats extent and population fragmentation evaluation. Under medium and high dispersal ability scenarios (12,000 and 20,000 cost units), most giant panda habitats in the Qionglai mountain are predicted to be well connected by dispersal. The proportion of core habitats covered by protected areas varied between 38% and 43% under different dispersal ability scenarios, highlighting significant gaps in the protected area network. Similarly, only 43% of corridors that connect giant panda occurrences were protected. Our results can provide crucial information for conservation managers to develop wise strategies to safeguard the long‐term viability of the giant panda population.     

Streams over mountains: influence of riparian connectivity on gene flow in the Pacific jumping mouse (Zapus trinotatus)

In species affiliated with heterogeneous habitat, we expect gene flow to be restricted due to constraints placed on individual movement by habitat boundaries. This is likely to impact both individual dispersal and connectivity between populations. In this study, a GIS-based landscape genetics approach was used, in combination with fine-scale spatial autocorrelation analysis and the estimation of recent intersubpopulation migration rates, to infer patterns of dispersal and migration in the riparian-affiliated Pacific jumping mouse (Zapus trinotatus). A total of 228 individuals were sampled from nine subpopulations across a system of three rivers and genotyped at eight microsatellite loci. Significant spatial autocorrelation among individuals revealed a pattern of fine-scale spatial genetic structure indicative of limited dispersal. Geographical distances between pairwise subpopulations were defined following four criteria: (i) Euclidean distance, and three landscape-specific distances, (ii) river distance (distance travelled along the river only), (iii) overland distance (similar to Euclidean, but includes elevation), and (iv) habitat-path distance (a least-cost path distance that models movement along habitat pathways). Pairwise Mantel tests were used to test for a correlation between genetic distance and each of the geographical distances. Significant correlations were found between genetic distance and both the overland and habitat-path distances; however, the correlation with habitat-path distance was stronger. Lastly, estimates of recent migration rates revealed that migration occurs not only within drainages but also across large topographic barriers. These results suggest that patterns of dispersal and migration in Pacific jumping mice are largely determined by habitat connectivity.     

Wrong place,wrong time: climate change‐induced range shift across fragmented habitat causes maladaptation and declined population size in a modelled bird species

Many species are locally adapted to decreased habitat quality at their range margins, and therefore show genetic differences throughout their ranges. Under contemporary climate change, range shifts may affect evolutionary processes at the expanding range margin due to founder events. In addition, populations that are affected by such founder events will, in the course of time, become located in the range centre. Recent studies investigated evolutionary changes at the expanding range margin, but have not assessed eventual effects across the species' range. We explored the possible influence of range shift on the level of adaptation throughout the species' total range. For this we used a spatially explicit, individual‐based simulation model of a woodland bird, parameterized after the middle spotted woodpecker ( Dendrocopos medius) in fragmented habitat. We simulated its range under climate change, and incorporated genetic differences at a single locus that determined the individual's degree of adaptation to optimal temperature conditions. Generalist individuals had a large thermal tolerance, but relatively low overall fitness, whereas climate specialists had high fitness combined with a small thermal tolerance. In equilibrium, the populations in the range centre were comprised of the specialists, whereas the generalists dominated the margins. In contrast, under temperature increase, the generalist numbers increased at the expanding margin and eventually also occupied the centre of the shifting range, whereas the specialists were located in the retracting margins. This was caused by founder events and led to overall maladaptation of the species, which resulted in a reduced metapopulation size and thus impeded the species' persistence. We therefore found no evidence for a complementary effect of local adaptation and range shifts on species' survival. Instead, we showed that founder events can cause local maladaptation which can amplify throughout the species' range, and, as such, hamper the species' persistence under climate change.     

Evolutionary responses of dispersal distance to landscape structure and habitat loss

It is generally well understood that some ecological factors select for increased and others for decreased dispersal. However, it has remained difficult to assess how the evolutionary dynamics are influenced by the spatio-temporal structure of the environment. We address this question with an individual-based model that enables habitat structure to be controlled through variables such as patch size, patch turnover rate, and patch quality. Increasing patch size at the expense of patch density can select for more or less dispersal, depending on the initial configuration. In landscapes consisting of high-quality and long-lived habitat patches, patch degradation selects for increased dispersal, yet patch loss may select for reduced dispersal. These trends do not depend on the component of life-history that is affected by habitat quality or the component of life-history through which density-dependence operates. Our results are based on a mathematical method that enables derivation of both the evolutionary stable strategy and the stationary genotype distribution that evolves in a polymorphic population. The two approaches generally lead to similar predictions. However, the evolutionary stable strategy assumes that the ecological and evolutionary time scales can be separated, and we find that violation of this assumption can critically alter the evolutionary outcome.     

Individual dispersal,landscape connectivity and ecological networks

Connectivity is classically considered an emergent property of landscapes encapsulating individuals' flows across space. However, its operational use requires a precise understanding of why and how organisms disperse. Such movements, and hence landscape connectivity, will obviously vary according to both organism properties and landscape features. We review whether landscape connectivity estimates could gain in both precision and generality by incorporating three fundamental outcomes of dispersal theory. Firstly, dispersal is a multi‐causal process; its restriction to an ‘escape reaction’ to environmental unsuitability is an oversimplification, as dispersing individuals can leave excellent quality habitat patches or stay in poor‐quality habitats according to the relative costs and benefits of dispersal and philopatry. Secondly, species, populations and individuals do not always react similarly to those cues that trigger dispersal, which sometimes results in contrasting dispersal strategies. Finally, dispersal is a major component of fitness and is thus under strong selective pressures, which could generate rapid adaptations of dispersal strategies. Such evolutionary responses will entail spatiotemporal variation in landscape connectivity. We thus strongly recommend the use of genetic tools to: (i) assess gene flow intensity and direction among populations in a given landscape; and (ii) accurately estimate landscape features impacting gene flow, and hence landscape connectivity. Such approaches will provide the basic data for planning corridors or stepping stones aiming at (re)connecting local populations of a given species in a given landscape. This strategy is clearly species‐ and landscape‐specific. But we suggest that the ecological network in a given landscape could be designed by stacking up such linkages designed for several species living in different ecosystems. This procedure relies on the use of umbrella species that are representative of other species living in the same ecosystem.     

Salamander Dispersal Across a Forested Landscape Fragmented by a Golf Course

Abstract: We assessed dispersal behavior of 78 radiotagged adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) at a 36-hole golf course in southeastern Connecticut, USA. Lake of Isles Golf Course is atypical of most golf courses in North America because it is much larger (461 ha) than average 18-hole golf courses (54 ha) and deciduous forests accounted for 70% landscape composition on the course. We tracked individuals an average of 164 days as they emigrated from 3 seasonal pools surrounded by golf course fairways and one pool located in contiguous forest (control pool) from March through December 2004. Males and females dispersed similar distances at the control pool, averaging 71 ± 10 m. However, females migrating across the golf course dispersed twice as far (214 ± 25 m) as males on the golf course (102 ± 15 m) and both genders at the control pool. Over 40% the salamanders at the golf course crossed fairways; thus, fairways were not a dispersal barrier to adult spotted salamanders. Previous researchers have suggested establishing a 164-m life zone around breeding ponds to protect pond-breeding amphibian populations. Our results suggest that strategies that protect core upland habitat within 164 m of wetland boundaries would include 82% of adult males and only 50% of adult females. Empirical estimates based on our telemetry study suggest that core terrestrial habitat would have to extend 370 m to protect 95% of adult females, which is much farther than previous estimates.     

The Speed of Range Shifts in Fragmented Landscapes

Species may be driven extinct by climate change, unless their populations are able to shift fast enough to track regions of suitable climate. Shifting will be faster as the proportion of suitable habitat in the landscape increases. However, it is not known how the spatial arrangement of habitat will affect the speed of range advance, especially when habitat is scarce, as is the case for many specialist species. We develop methods for calculating the speed of advance that are appropriate for highly fragmented, stochastic systems. We reveal that spatial aggregation of habitat tends to reduce the speed of advance throughout a wide range of species parameters: different dispersal distances and dispersal kernel shapes, and high and low extinction probabilities. In contrast, aggregation increases the steady-state proportion of habitat that is occupied (without climate change). Nonetheless, we find that it is possible to achieve both rapid advance and relatively high patch occupancy when the habitat has a “channeled” pattern, resembling corridors or chains of stepping stones. We adapt techniques from electrical circuit theory to predict the rate of advance efficiently for complex, realistic landscape patterns, whereas the rate cannot be predicted by any simple statistic of aggregation or fragmentation. Conservationists are already advocating corridors and stepping stones as important conservation tools under climate change, but they are vaguely defined and have so far lacked a convincing basis in fundamental population biology. Our work shows how to discriminate properties of a landscape''s spatial pattern that affect the speed of colonization (including, but not limited to, patterns like corridors and chains of stepping stones), and properties that affect a species'' probability of persistence once established. We can therefore point the way to better land use planning approaches, which will provide functional habitat linkages and also maintain local population viability.