Urban Cholera Transmission Hotspots and Their Implications for Reactive Vaccination: Evidence from Bissau City,Guinea Bissau

Background

Use of cholera vaccines in response to epidemics (reactive vaccination) may provide an effective supplement to traditional control measures. In Haiti, reactive vaccination was considered but, until recently, rejected in part due to limited global supply of vaccine. Using Bissau City, Guinea-Bissau as a case study, we explore neighborhood-level transmission dynamics to understand if, with limited vaccine and likely delays, reactive vaccination can significantly change the course of a cholera epidemic.

Methods and Findings

We fit a spatially explicit meta-population model of cholera transmission within Bissau City to data from 7,551 suspected cholera cases from a 2008 epidemic. We estimated the effect reactive vaccination campaigns would have had on the epidemic under different levels of vaccine coverage and campaign start dates. We compared highly focused and diffuse strategies for distributing vaccine throughout the city. We found wide variation in the efficiency of cholera transmission both within and between areas of the city. “Hotspots”, where transmission was most efficient, appear to drive the epidemic. In particular one area, Bandim, was a necessary driver of the 2008 epidemic in Bissau City. If vaccine supply were limited but could have been distributed within the first 80 days of the epidemic, targeting vaccination at Bandim would have averted the most cases both within this area and throughout the city. Regardless of the distribution strategy used, timely distribution of vaccine in response to an ongoing cholera epidemic can prevent cases and save lives.

Conclusions

Reactive vaccination can be a useful tool for controlling cholera epidemics, especially in urban areas like Bissau City. Particular neighborhoods may be responsible for driving a city''s cholera epidemic; timely and targeted reactive vaccination at such neighborhoods may be the most effective way to prevent cholera cases both within that neighborhood and throughout the city.     

The Burden of Cholera in Uganda

Introduction

In 2010, the World Health Organization released a new cholera vaccine position paper, which recommended the use of cholera vaccines in high-risk endemic areas. However, there is a paucity of data on the burden of cholera in endemic countries. This article reviewed available cholera surveillance data from Uganda and assessed the sufficiency of these data to inform country-specific strategies for cholera vaccination.

Methods

The Uganda Ministry of Health conducts cholera surveillance to guide cholera outbreak control activities. This includes reporting the number of cases based on a standardized clinical definition plus systematic laboratory testing of stool samples from suspected cases at the outset and conclusion of outbreaks. This retrospective study analyzes available data by district and by age to estimate incidence rates. Since surveillance activities focus on more severe hospitalized cases and deaths, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to estimate the number of non-severe cases and unrecognized deaths that may not have been captured.

Results

Cholera affected all ages, but the geographic distribution of the disease was very heterogeneous in Uganda. We estimated that an average of about 11,000 cholera cases occurred in Uganda each year, which led to approximately 61–182 deaths. The majority of these cases (81%) occurred in a relatively small number of districts comprising just 24% of Uganda''s total population. These districts included rural areas bordering the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Kenya as well as the slums of Kampala city. When outbreaks occurred, the average duration was about 15 weeks with a range of 4–44 weeks.

Discussion

There is a clear subdivision between high-risk and low-risk districts in Uganda. Vaccination efforts should be focused on the high-risk population. However, enhanced or sentinel surveillance activities should be undertaken to better quantify the endemic disease burden and high-risk populations prior to introducing the vaccine.     

The high burden of cholera in children: comparison of incidence from endemic areas in Asia and Africa

Background

Cholera remains an important public health problem. Yet there are few reliable population-based estimates of laboratory-confirmed cholera incidence in endemic areas around the world.

Methods

We established treatment facility–based cholera surveillance in three sites in Jakarta (Indonesia), Kolkata (India), and Beira (Mozambique). The annual incidence of cholera was estimated using the population census as the denominator and the age-specific number of cholera cases among the study cohort as the numerator.

Findings

The lowest overall rate was found in Jakarta, where the estimated incidence was 0.5/1000 population/year. The incidence was three times higher in Kolkata (1.6/1000/year) and eight times higher in Beira (4.0/1000/year). In all study sites, the greatest burden was in children under 5 years of age.

Conclusion

There are considerable differences in cholera incidence across these endemic areas but in all sites, children are the most affected. The study site in Africa had the highest cholera incidence consistent with a growing impression of the large cholera burden in Africa. Burden estimates are useful when considering where and among whom interventions such as vaccination would be most needed.     

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Cholera during the First Year of the Epidemic in Haiti

Background

In October 2010, cholera importation in Haiti triggered an epidemic that rapidly proved to be the world''s largest epidemic of the seventh cholera pandemic. To establish effective control and elimination policies, strategies rely on the analysis of cholera dynamics. In this report, we describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of cholera and the associated environmental factors.

Methodology/Principal findings

Cholera-associated morbidity and mortality data were prospectively collected at the commune level according to the World Health Organization standard definition. Attack and mortality rates were estimated and mapped to assess epidemic clusters and trends. The relationships between environmental factors were assessed at the commune level using multivariate analysis. The global attack and mortality rates were 488.9 cases/10,000 inhabitants and 6.24 deaths/10,000 inhabitants, respectively. Attack rates displayed a significantly high level of spatial heterogeneity (varying from 64.7 to 3070.9 per 10,000 inhabitants), thereby suggesting disparate outbreak processes. The epidemic course exhibited two principal outbreaks. The first outbreak (October 16, 2010–January 30, 2011) displayed a centrifugal spread of a damping wave that suddenly emerged from Mirebalais. The second outbreak began at the end of May 2011, concomitant with the onset of the rainy season, and displayed a highly fragmented epidemic pattern. Environmental factors (river and rice fields: p<0.003) played a role in disease dynamics exclusively during the early phases of the epidemic.

Conclusion

Our findings demonstrate that the epidemic is still evolving, with a changing transmission pattern as time passes. Such an evolution could have hardly been anticipated, especially in a country struck by cholera for the first time. These results argue for the need for control measures involving intense efforts in rapid and exhaustive case tracking.     

The case for reactive mass oral cholera vaccinations

Introduction

The outbreak of cholera in Zimbabwe intensified interest in the control and prevention of cholera. While there is agreement that safe water, sanitation, and personal hygiene are ideal for the long term control of cholera, there is controversy about the role of newer approaches such as oral cholera vaccines (OCVs). In October 2009 the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts advised the World Health Organization to consider reactive vaccination campaigns in response to large cholera outbreaks. To evaluate the potential benefit of this pivotal change in WHO policy, we used existing data from cholera outbreaks to simulate the number of cholera cases preventable by reactive mass vaccination.

Methods

Datasets of cholera outbreaks from three sites with varying cholera endemicity—Zimbabwe, Kolkata (India), and Zanzibar (Tanzania)—were analysed to estimate the number of cholera cases preventable under differing response times, vaccine coverage, and vaccine doses.

Findings

The large cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe started in mid August 2008 and by July 2009, 98,591 cholera cases had been reported with 4,288 deaths attributed to cholera. If a rapid response had taken place and half of the population had been vaccinated once the first 400 cases had occurred, as many as 34,900 (40%) cholera cases and 1,695 deaths (40%) could have been prevented. In the sites with endemic cholera, Kolkata and Zanzibar, a significant number of cases could have been prevented but the impact would have been less dramatic. A brisk response is required for outbreaks with the majority of cases occurring during the early weeks. Even a delayed response can save a substantial number of cases and deaths in long, drawn-out outbreaks. If circumstances prevent a rapid response there are good reasons to roll out cholera mass vaccination campaigns well into the outbreak. Once a substantial proportion of a population is vaccinated, outbreaks in subsequent years may be reduced if not prevented. A single dose vaccine would be of advantage in short, small outbreaks.

Conclusions

We show that reactive vaccine use can prevent cholera cases and is a rational response to cholera outbreaks in endemic and non-endemic settings. In large and long outbreaks a reactive vaccination with a two-dose vaccine can prevent a substantial proportion of cases. To make mass vaccination campaigns successful, it would be essential to agree when to implement reactive vaccination campaigns and to have a dynamic and determined response team that is familiar with the logistic challenges on standby. Most importantly, the decision makers in donor and recipient countries have to be convinced of the benefit of reactive cholera vaccinations.     

Cross Border Comparison of MRSA Bacteraemia between The Netherlands and North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany): A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

We describe the impact of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in two neighbouring regions in Europe with a comparable population size, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in Germany and the Netherlands.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared the occurrence of MRSA in blood cultures from surveillance systems. In the Netherlands in 2009, 14 of 1,510 (0.9%) Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia episodes under surveillance were MRSA. Extrapolation using the number of clinical admissions results in a total of 29 MRSA bacteraemia episodes in the Netherlands or 1.8 episodes per 1,000,000 inhabitants. In 2010 in NRW, 1,029 MRSA bacteraemias were reported, resulting in 57.6 episodes of MRSA bacteraemia per 1,000,000 inhabitants: a 32-fold higher incidence than in the Netherlands.

Conclusion/Significance

Based on an estimated attributable mortality of 15%, the Dutch approach would save approximately 150 lives per year by the prevention of bacteraemia only.     

Mortality and Case Fatality Due to Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Nationwide Analysis of Epidemiology,Trends and Spatial Patterns

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a significant public health problem in Brazil and several regions of the world. This study investigated the magnitude, temporal trends and spatial distribution of mortality related to VL in Brazil.

Methods

We performed a study based on secondary data obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. We included all deaths in Brazil from 2000 to 2011, in which VL was recorded as cause of death. We present epidemiological characteristics, trend analysis of mortality and case fatality rates by joinpoint regression models, and spatial analysis using municipalities as geographical units of analysis.

Results

In the study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil. VL was mentioned in 3,322 (0.03%) deaths. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.15 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants and case fatality rate 8.1%. Highest mortality rates were observed in males (0.19 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), <1 year-olds (1.03 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) and residents in Northeast region (0.30 deaths/100,000 inhabitants). Highest case fatality rates were observed in males (8.8%), ≥70 year-olds (43.8%) and residents in South region (17.7%). Mortality and case fatality rates showed a significant increase in Brazil over the period, with different patterns between regions: increasing mortality rates in the North (Annual Percent Change – APC: 9.4%; 95% confidence interval – CI: 5.3 to 13.6), and Southeast (APC: 8.1%; 95% CI: 2.6 to 13.9); and increasing case fatality rates in the Northeast (APC: 4.0%; 95% CI: 0.8 to 7.4). Spatial analysis identified a major cluster of high mortality encompassing a wide geographic range in North and Northeast Brazil.

Conclusions

Despite ongoing control strategies, mortality related to VL in Brazil is increasing. Mortality and case fatality vary considerably between regions, and surveillance and control measures should be prioritized in high-risk clusters. Early diagnosis and treatment are fundamental strategies for reducing case fatality of VL in Brazil.     

Clinical Reactivations of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Infection and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Disease Progression Markers

Background

The natural history of HSV-2 infection and role of HSV-2 reactivations in HIV disease progression are unclear.

Methods

Clinical symptoms of active HSV-2 infection were used to classify 1,938 HIV/HSV-2 co-infected participants of the Women''s Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) into groups of varying degree of HSV-2 clinical activity. Differences in plasma HIV RNA and CD4+ T cell counts between groups were explored longitudinally across three study visits and cross-sectionally at the last study visit.

Results

A dose dependent association between markers of HIV disease progression and degree of HSV-2 clinical activity was observed. In multivariate analyses after adjusting for baseline CD4+ T cell levels, active HSV-2 infection with frequent symptomatic reactivations was associated with 21% to 32% increase in the probability of detectable plasma HIV RNA (trend p = 0.004), an average of 0.27 to 0.29 log10 copies/ml higher plasma HIV RNA on a continuous scale (trend p<0.001) and 51 to 101 reduced CD4+ T cells/mm³ over time compared to asymptomatic HSV-2 infection (trend p<0.001).

Conclusions

HIV induced CD4+ T cell loss was associated with frequent symptomatic HSV-2 reactivations. However, effect of HSV-2 reactivations on HIV disease progression markers in this population was modest and appears to be dependent on the frequency and severity of reactivations. Further studies will be necessary to determine whether HSV-2 reactivations contribute to acceleration of HIV disease progression.     

Cholera in Pregnancy: Outcomes from a Specialized Cholera Treatment Unit for Pregnant Women in Léogane,Haiti

Background

The association between cholera in pregnancy and negative fetal outcome has been described since the 19^th century. However, there is limited published literature on the subject. We describe pregnancy outcomes from a specialized multidisciplinary hospital unit at the onset of a large cholera outbreak in Haiti in 2010 and 2011.

Methods

Pregnant women with cholera were hospitalized in a specialized unit within the MSF hospital compound in Léogâne and treated using standard cholera treatment guidelines but with earlier, more intense fluid replacement. All women had intravenous access established at admission regardless of their hydration status, and all received antibiotic treatment. Data were collected on patient demographics, pregnancy and cholera status, and pregnancy outcome. In this analysis we calculated risk ratios for fetal death and performed logistic regression analysis to control for confounding factors.

Results

263 pregnant women with cholera were hospitalized between December 2010 and July 2011. None died during hospitalization, 226 (86%) were discharged with a preserved pregnancy and 16 (6%) had live fullterm singleton births, of whom 2 died within the first 5 days postpartum. The remaining 21 pregnancies (8%) resulted in intrauterine fetal death. The risk of fetal death was associated with factors reflecting severity of the cholera episode: after adjusting for confounding factors, the strongest risk factor for fetal death was severe maternal dehydration (adjusted risk ratio for severe vs. mild dehydration was 9.4, 95% CI 2.5–35.3, p = 0.005), followed by severe vomiting (adjusted risk ratio 5.1, 95% 1.1–23.8, p = 0.041).

Conclusion

This is the largest cohort of pregnant women with cholera described to date. The main risk factor identified for fetal death was severity of dehydration. Our experience suggests that establishing specialized multidisciplinary units which facilitate close follow-up of both pregnancy and dehydration status due to cholera could be beneficial for patients, especially in large epidemics.     

Use of a Cholera Rapid Diagnostic Test during a Mass Vaccination Campaign in Response to an Epidemic in Guinea, 2012

Background

During the 2012 cholera outbreak in the Republic of Guinea, the Ministry of Health, supported by Médecins Sans Frontières - Operational Center Geneva, used the oral cholera vaccine Shanchol as a part of the emergency response. The rapid diagnostic test (RDT) Crystal VC, widely used during outbreaks, detects lipopolysaccharide antigens of Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139, both included in Shanchol. In the context of reactive use of a whole-cell cholera vaccine in a region where cholera cases have been reported, it is essential to know what proportion of vaccinated individuals would be reactive to the RDT and for how long after vaccination.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 108 vaccinated individuals, selected systematically among all persons older than one year, were included at vaccination sites and 106 were included in the analysis. Stools samples of this cohort of vaccinated participants were collected and tested with the RDT every day until the test was negative for two consecutive visits or for a maximum of 7 days. A total of 94.3% of cholera vaccine recipients had a positive test after vaccination; all except one of these positive results were reactive only with the O139 antigen. The mean time to become negative in those with an initial positive result after vaccination was 3.8 days, standard deviation 1.1 days.

Conclusions/Significance

The RDT Crystal VC becomes positive in persons recently vaccinated against cholera, although almost exclusively to the O139 antigen. This reactivity largely disappeared within five days after vaccination. These results suggest that the test can be used normally as soon as 24 hours after vaccination in a context of O1 epidemics, which represent the vast majority of cases, and after a period of five days in areas where V. cholerae O139 is present. The reason why only O139 test line became positive remains to be investigated.     

Transitions from injection-drug-use-concentrated to self-sustaining heterosexual HIV epidemics: patterns in the international data

Background

Injecting drug use continues to be a primary driver of HIV epidemics in many parts of the world. Many people who inject drugs (PWID) are sexually active, so it is possible that high-seroprevalence HIV epidemics among PWID may initiate self-sustaining heterosexual transmission epidemics.

Methods

Fourteen countries that had experienced high seroprevalence (<20%) HIV epidemics among PWID and had reliable data for injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual cases of HIV or AIDS were identified. Graphs of newly reported HIV or AIDS cases among PWID and heterosexuals were constructed to identify temporal relationships between the two types of epidemics. The year in which newly reported cases among heterosexuals surpassed newly reported cases among PWID, aspects of the epidemic curves, and epidemic case histories were analyzed to assess whether it was “plausible” or “highly unlikely” that the HIV epidemic among PWID might have initiated the heterosexual epidemic in each country.

Results

Transitions have occurred in 11 of the 14 countries. Two types of temporal relationships between IDU and heterosexual HIV epidemics were identified, rapid high incidence transitions vs. delayed, low incidence transitions. In six countries it appears “plausible” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic, and in five countries it appears “highly unlikely” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic. A rapid decline in incidence among PWID after the peak year of new cases and national income were the best predictors of the “highly unlikely” initiation of a heterosexual epidemic.

Discussion

Transitions from IDU concentrated epidemics to heterosexual epidemics are common in countries with high seroprevalence among PWID though there are distinct types of transitions. Interventions to immediately reduce HIV incidence among PWID may reduce the likelihood that an IDU epidemic may initiate a heterosexual epidemic.     

Epidemiology of Cholera in the Philippines

Background

Despite being a cholera-endemic country, data on cholera in the Philippines remain sparse. Knowing the areas where cholera is known to occur and the factors that lead to its occurrence will assist in planning preventive measures and disaster mitigation.

Methods

Using sentinel surveillance data, PubMed and ProMED searches covering information from 2008–2013 and event-based surveillance reports from 2010–2013, we assessed the epidemiology of cholera in the Philippines. Using spatial log regression, we assessed the role of water, sanitation and population density on the incidence of cholera.

Results and Discussion

We identified 12 articles from ProMED and none from PubMed that reported on cholera in the Philippines from 2008 to 2013. Data from ProMed and surveillance revealed 42,071 suspected and confirmed cholera cases reported from 2008 to 2013, among which only 5,006 were confirmed. 38 (47%) of 81 provinces and metropolitan regions reported at least one confirmed case of cholera and 32 (40%) reported at least one suspected case. The overall case fatality ratio in sentinel sites was 0.62%, but was 2% in outbreaks. All age groups were affected. Using both confirmed and suspected cholera cases, the average annual incidence in 2010–2013 was 9.1 per 100,000 population. Poor access to improved sanitation was consistently associated with higher cholera incidence. Paradoxically, access to improved water sources was associated with higher cholera incidence using both suspected and confirmed cholera data sources. This finding may have been due to the breakdown in the infrastructure and non-chlorination of water supplies, emphasizing the need to maintain public water systems.

Conclusion

Our findings confirm that cholera affects a large proportion of the provinces in the country. Identifying areas most at risk for cholera will support the development and implementation of policies to minimize the morbidity and mortality due to this disease.     

Household transmission of leptospira infection in urban slum communities

Background

Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonotic disease, is the cause of epidemics associated with high mortality in urban slum communities. Infection with pathogenic Leptospira occurs during environmental exposures and is traditionally associated with occupational risk activities. However, slum inhabitants reside in close proximity to environmental sources of contamination, suggesting that transmission during urban epidemics occurs in the household environment.

Methods and Findings

A survey was performed to determine whether Leptospira infection clustered within households located in slum communities in the city of Salvador, Brazil. Hospital-based surveillance identified 89 confirmed cases of leptospirosis during an outbreak. Serum samples were obtained from members of 22 households with index cases of leptospirosis and 52 control households located in the same slum communities. The presence of anti-Leptospira agglutinating antibodies was used as a marker for previous infection. In households with index cases, 22 (30%) of 74 members had anti-Leptospira antibodies, whereas 16 (8%) of 195 members from control households had anti-Leptospira antibodies. Highest titres were directed against L. interrogans serovars of the Icterohaemorrhagiae serogroup in 95% and 100% of the subjects with agglutinating antibodies from case and control households, respectively. Residence in a household with an index case of leptospirosis was associated with increased risk (OR 5.29, 95% CI 2.13–13.12) of having had a Leptospira infection. Increased infection risk was found for all age groups who resided in a household with an index case, including children <15 years of age (P = 0.008).

Conclusions

This study identified significant household clustering of Leptospira infection in slum communities where recurrent epidemics of leptospirosis occur. The findings support the hypothesis that the household environment is an important transmission determinant in the urban slum setting. Prevention therefore needs to target sources of contamination and risk activities which occur in the places where slum inhabitants reside.     

Comparative Effectiveness of Different Strategies of Oral Cholera Vaccination in Bangladesh: A Modeling Study

Background

Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies.

Methods & Findings

We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1–14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies.

Conclusions

We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions.     

The Role of Imported Cases and Favorable Meteorological Conditions in the Onset of Dengue Epidemics

Background

Travelers who acquire dengue infection are often routes for virus transmission to other regions. Nevertheless, the interplay between infected travelers, climate, vectors, and indigenous dengue incidence remains unclear. The role of foreign-origin cases on local dengue epidemics thus has been largely neglected by research. This study investigated the effect of both imported dengue and local meteorological factors on the occurrence of indigenous dengue in Taiwan.

Methods and Principal Findings

Using logistic and Poisson regression models, we analyzed bi-weekly, laboratory-confirmed dengue cases at their onset dates of illness from 1998 to 2007 to identify correlations between indigenous dengue and imported dengue cases (in the context of local meteorological factors) across different time lags. Our results revealed that the occurrence of indigenous dengue was significantly correlated with temporally-lagged cases of imported dengue (2–14 weeks), higher temperatures (6–14 weeks), and lower relative humidity (6–20 weeks). In addition, imported and indigenous dengue cases had a significant quantitative relationship in the onset of local epidemics. However, this relationship became less significant once indigenous epidemics progressed past the initial stage.

Conclusions

These findings imply that imported dengue cases are able to initiate indigenous epidemics when appropriate weather conditions are present. Early detection and case management of imported cases through rapid diagnosis may avert large-scale epidemics of dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever. The deployment of an early-warning surveillance system, with the capacity to integrate meteorological data, will be an invaluable tool for successful prevention and control of dengue, particularly in non-endemic countries.     

Impact of rapid urbanization on the rates of infection by Vibrio cholerae O1 and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Background

In Bangladesh, increases in cholera epidemics are being documented with a greater incidence and severity. The aim of this prospective study was to identify the prevalence and importance of V. cholerae O1 and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) as causal agents of severe diarrhea in a high diarrhea prone urban area in Dhaka city.

Methodology

Systematic surveillance was carried out on all diarrheal patients admitted from Mirpur between March 2008 to February 2010 at the ICDDR, B hospital. Stool or rectal swabs were collected from every third diarrheal patient for microbiological evaluation.

Principal Findings

Of diarrheal patients attending the hospital from Mirpur, 41% suffered from severe dehydration with 39% requiring intravenous rehydration therapy. More diarrheal patients were above five years of age (64%) than those below five years of age (36%). About 60% of the patients above five years of age had severe dehydration compared with only 9% of patients under five years of age. The most prevalent pathogen isolated was Vibrio cholerae O1 (23%) followed by ETEC (11%). About 8% of cholera infection was seen in infants with the youngest children being one month of age while in the case of ETEC the rate was 11%. Of the isolated ETEC strains, the enterotoxin type were almost equally distributed; ST accounted for 31% of strains; LT/ST for 38% and LT for 31%.

Conclusion

V. cholerae O1 is the major bacterial pathogen and a cause of severe cholera disease in 23% of patients from Mirpur. This represents a socioeconomic group that best reflects the major areas of high cholera burden in the country. Vaccines that can target such high risk groups in the country and the region will hopefully be able to reduce the disease morbidity and the transmission of pathogens that impact the life and health of people.     

Climate Variability and Nonstationary Dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia in Japan

Background

A stationary association between climate factors and epidemics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) pneumonia has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether elements of the local climate that are relevant to M. pneumoniae pneumonia transmission have stationary signatures of climate factors on their dynamics over different time scales.

Methods

We performed a cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of association between monthly M. pneumoniae cases in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 and indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Results

Monthly M. pneumoniae cases were strongly associated with the dynamics of both the IOD and ENSO for the 1–2-year periodic mode in 2005–2007 and 2010–2011. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of M. pneumoniae epidemics.

Conclusions

Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary, possibly non-linear, patterns of association between M. pneumoniae cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.     

Local spatial and temporal processes of influenza in Pennsylvania, USA: 2003-2009

Background

Influenza is a contagious respiratory disease responsible for annual seasonal epidemics in temperate climates. An understanding of how influenza spreads geographically and temporally within regions could result in improved public health prevention programs. The purpose of this study was to summarize the spatial and temporal spread of influenza using data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Health''s influenza surveillance system.

Methodology and Findings

We evaluated the spatial and temporal patterns of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Pennsylvania, United States from six influenza seasons (2003–2009). Using a test of spatial autocorrelation, local clusters of elevated risk were identified in the South Central region of the state. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that lower monthly precipitation levels during the influenza season (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.94), fewer residents over age 64 (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.73) and fewer residents with more than a high school education (OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.95) were significantly associated with membership in this cluster. In addition, time series analysis revealed a temporal lag in the peak timing of the influenza B epidemic compared to the influenza A epidemic.

Conclusions

These findings illustrate a distinct spatial cluster of cases in the South Central region of Pennsylvania. Further examination of the regional transmission dynamics within these clusters may be useful in planning public health influenza prevention programs.     

The role of vaccine coverage within social networks in cholera vaccine efficacy

Background

Traditional vaccine trial methods have an underlying assumption that the effect of a vaccine is the same throughout the trial area. There are, however, many spatial and behavioral factors that alter the rates of contact among infectious and susceptible individuals and result in different efficacies across a population. We reanalyzed data from a field trial in Bangladesh to ascertain whether there is evidence of indirect protection from cholera vaccines when vaccination rates are high in an individual''s social network.

Methods

We analyzed the first year of surveillance data from a placebo-controlled trial of B subunit-killed whole-cell and killed whole-cell-only oral cholera vaccines in children and adult women in Bangladesh. We calculated whether there was an inverse trend for the relation between the level of vaccine coverage in an individual''s social network and the incidence of cholera in individual vaccine recipients or placebo recipients after controlling for potential confounding variables.

Results

Using bari-level social network ties, we found incidence rates of cholera among placebo recipients were inversely related to levels of vaccine coverage (5.28 cases per 1000 in the lowest quintile vs 3.27 cases per 1000 in the highest quintile; p = 0.037 for trend). Receipt of vaccine by an individual and the level of vaccine coverage of the individual''s social network were independently related to a reduced risk of cholera.

Conclusions

Findings indicate that progressively higher levels of vaccine coverage in bari-level social networks can lead to increasing levels of indirect protection of non-vaccinated individuals and could also lead to progressively higher levels of total protection of vaccine recipients.     

Esophagitis in a high H. pylori prevalence area: severe disease is rare but concomitant peptic ulcer is frequent

Background

Few data are available on the prevalence of erosive and severe esophagitis in Western countries.

Objective

To retrospectively determine the prevalence and the factors predicting erosive esophagitis and severe esophagitis in a large series of endoscopies in Spain.

Design

Retrospective observational study. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine variables predicting severe esophagitis.

Setting

Databases of 29 Spanish endoscopy units.

Patients

Patients submitted to a diagnostic endoscopy during the year 2005.

Interventions

Retrospective review of the databases.

Main Outcome Measurements

Esophagitis severity (graded according to the Los Angeles classification) and associated endoscopic findings.

Results

Esophagitis was observed in 8.7% of the 93,699 endoscopies reviewed. Severe esophagitis (LA grade C or D) accounted for 22.5% of cases of the disease and was found in 1.9% of all endoscopies. Incidences of esophagitis and those of severe esophagitis were 86.2 and 18.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year respectively. Male sex (OR 1.89) and advanced age (OR 4.2 for patients in the fourth age quartile) were the only variables associated with severe esophagitis. Associated peptic ulcer was present in 8.8% of cases.

Limitations

Retrospective study, no data on individual proton pump inhibitors use.

Conclusions

Severe esophagitis is an infrequent finding in Spain. It occurs predominantly in males and in older individuals. Peptic ulcer disease is frequently associated with erosive esophagitis.