Continuously stable strategies as evolutionary branching points

Evolutionary branching points are a paradigmatic feature of adaptive dynamics, because they are potential starting points for adaptive diversification. The antithesis to evolutionary branching points are continuously stable strategies (CSS's), which are convergent stable and evolutionarily stable equilibrium points of the adaptive dynamics and hence are thought to represent endpoints of adaptive processes. However, this assessment is based on situations in which the invasion fitness function determining the adaptive dynamics have non-zero second derivatives at CSS. Here we show that the scope of evolutionary branching can increase if the invasion fitness function vanishes to higher than first order at CSS. Using classical models for frequency-dependent competition, we show that if the invasion fitness vanishes to higher orders, a CSS may be the starting point for evolutionary branching. Thus, when invasion fitness functions vanish to higher than first order at equilibrium points of the adaptive dynamics, evolutionary diversification can occur even after convergence to an evolutionarily stable strategy.     

The long-term evolution of multilocus traits under frequency-dependent disruptive selection

Frequency-dependent disruptive selection is widely recognized as an important source of genetic variation. Its evolutionary consequences have been extensively studied using phenotypic evolutionary models, based on quantitative genetics, game theory, or adaptive dynamics. However, the genetic assumptions underlying these approaches are highly idealized and, even worse, predict different consequences of frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Population genetic models, by contrast, enable genotypic evolutionary models, but traditionally assume constant fitness values. Only a minority of these models thus addresses frequency-dependent selection, and only a few of these do so in a multilocus context. An inherent limitation of these remaining studies is that they only investigate the short-term maintenance of genetic variation. Consequently, the long-term evolution of multilocus characters under frequency-dependent disruptive selection remains poorly understood. We aim to bridge this gap between phenotypic and genotypic models by studying a multilocus version of Levene's soft-selection model. Individual-based simulations and deterministic approximations based on adaptive dynamics theory provide insights into the underlying evolutionary dynamics. Our analysis uncovers a general pattern of polymorphism formation and collapse, likely to apply to a wide variety of genetic systems: after convergence to a fitness minimum and the subsequent establishment of genetic polymorphism at multiple loci, genetic variation becomes increasingly concentrated on a few loci, until eventually only a single polymorphic locus remains. This evolutionary process combines features observed in quantitative genetics and adaptive dynamics models, and it can be explained as a consequence of changes in the selection regime that are inherent to frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Our findings demonstrate that the potential of frequency-dependent disruptive selection to maintain polygenic variation is considerably smaller than previously expected.     

The shape of the competition and carrying capacity kernels affects the likelihood of disruptive selection

Many quantitative genetic and adaptive dynamic models suggest that disruptive selection can maintain genetic polymorphism and be the driving force causing evolutionary divergence. These models also suggest that disruptive selection arises from frequency-dependent intraspecific competition. For convenience or historical precedence, these models assume that carrying capacity and competition functions follow a Gaussian distribution. Here, we propose a new analytical framework that relaxes the assumption of Gaussian competition and carrying capacity functions, and investigate how alternative shapes affect the likelihood of disruptive selection. We found that the shape of both carrying capacity and competition kernels interact to determine the likelihood of disruptive selection. For certain regions of the parametric space disruptive selection is facilitated, whereas for others it becomes more difficult. Our results suggest that the relationship between the degree of frequency dependence and the likelihood of disruptive selection is more complex than previously thought, depending on how resources are distributed and competition interference takes place. It is now important to describe the empirical patterns of resource distribution and competition in nature as a way to determine the likelihood of disruptive selection in natural populations.     

An analytically tractable model for competitive speciation

Several recent models have shown that frequency-dependent disruptive selection created by intraspecific competition can lead to the evolution of assortative mating and, thus, to competitive sympatric speciation. However, since most of these results rely on limited numerical analyses, their generality has been debated. Here, we consider one of the standard models (the so-called Roughgarden model) with a simplified genetics where the selected trait is determined by a single diallelic locus. This model is sufficiently complex to maintain key properties of the general multilocus case but simple enough to allow for comprehensive analytical treatment by means of invasion fitness arguments. Depending on (1) the strength and (2) the shape of stabilizing selection, (3) the strength and (4) the shape of pairwise competition, (5) the shape of the mating function, and (6) whether assortative mating leads to sexual selection, we find five different evolutionary regimes. In one of these regimes, complete reproductive isolation can evolve through arbitrarily small steps in the strength of assortative mating. Our approach provides a mechanistic understanding of several phenomena that have been found in previous models. The results demonstrate how even in a simple model, the evolutionary outcome depends in a complex way on ecological and genetic parameters.     

ASSORTATIVE MATE CHOICE AND DOMINANCE MODIFICATION: ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF REMOVING HETEROZYGOTE DISADVANTAGE

In genetic polymorphisms of two alleles, heterozygous individuals may contribute to the next generation on average more or fewer descendants than the homozygotes. Two different evolutionary responses that remove a disadvantageous heterozygote phenotype from the population are the evolution of strictly assortative mate choice, and that of a modifier making one of the two alleles completely dominant. We derive invasion fitness of mutants introducing dominance or assortative mate choice in a randomly mating population with a genetic polymorphism for an ecological trait. Mutations with small effects as well as mutants introducing complete dominance or perfect assorting are considered. Using adaptive dynamics techniques, we are able to calculate the ratio of fitness gradients for the effects of a dominance modifier and a mate choice locus, near evolutionary branching points. With equal resident allele frequencies, selection for mate choice is always stronger. Dominance is more strongly selected than assortative mating when the resident (common) alleles have very unequal frequencies at equilibrium. With female mate choice the difference in frequencies where dominance is more strongly selected is smaller than when mutants of both sexes can choose without costs. A symmetric resource-competition model illustrates the results.     

Multimodal pattern formation in phenotype distributions of sexual populations

During bouts of evolutionary diversification, such as adaptive radiations, the emerging species cluster around different locations in phenotype space. How such multimodal patterns in phenotype space can emerge from a single ancestral species is a fundamental question in biology. Frequency-dependent competition is one potential mechanism for such pattern formation, as has previously been shown in models based on the theory of adaptive dynamics. Here, we demonstrate that also in models similar to those used in quantitative genetics, phenotype distributions can split into multiple modes under the force of frequency-dependent competition. In sexual populations, this requires assortative mating, and we show that the multimodal splitting of initially unimodal distributions occurs over a range of assortment parameters. In addition, assortative mating can be favoured evolutionarily even if it incurs costs, because it provides a means of alleviating the effects of frequency dependence. Our results reveal that models at both ends of the spectrum between essentially monomorphic (adaptive dynamics) and fully polymorphic (quantitative genetics) yield similar results. This underscores that frequency-dependent selection is a strong agent of pattern formation in phenotype distributions, potentially resulting in adaptive speciation.     

Optimization under frequency-dependent selection

We consider a model of frequency-dependent selection, which we refer to as the Wildcard Model. A variety of more specific models, representing quite diverse biological situations, are covered by the Wildcard Model as particular cases. Two very different particular models that are subsumed by the Wildcard Model are the game theoretically motivated two-phenotype model of Lessard [Lessard, S.,1984. Evolutionary dynamics in frequency-dependent two-phenotype models, Theor. Popul. Biol. 25, 210-234], and the model of selection on a continuous trait due to intraspecific competition of Bürger [Bürger, R., 2005. A multilocus analysis of intraspecific competition and stabilizing selection on a quantitative trait. J. Math. Biol. 50 (4), 355-396] and Schneider [Schneider, K.A., 2006. A multilocus-multiallele analysis of frequency-dependent selection induced by intraspecific competition. J. Math. Biol. 52 (4), 483-523]. Both these models have been shown in the past to have a global Lyapunov function (LF) under appropriate genetic assumptions. We show that (i) the Wildcard Model in continuous time for a single multiallelic locus, or for multiple multiallelic loci in linkage equilibrium, has a global LF, of which the Lessard and Bürger-Scheneider LF are special cases in spite of their widely different biological interpretations; (ii) the LF of the Wildcard Model can be derived from an LF previously identified for a model of density- and frequency-dependent selection due to Lotka-Volterra competition, with one locus, multiple alleles, multiple species and continuous-time dynamics [Matessi, C., Jayakar, S.D., 1981. Coevolution of species in competition: A theoretical study. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 78 (2, part2), 1081-1084]. We extend the LF with density and frequency dependence to the multilocus case with linkage-equilibrium dynamics. As a possible application of our results, the optimization principle we established can be used as a tool in the study of long-term evolution of various models subsumed by the Wildcard Model based on explicit short-term dynamics.     

The adaptive dynamics of function-valued traits

This study extends the framework of adaptive dynamics to function-valued traits. Such adaptive traits naturally arise in a great variety of settings: variable or heterogeneous environments, age-structured populations, phenotypic plasticity, patterns of growth and form, resource gradients, and in many other areas of evolutionary ecology. Adaptive dynamics theory allows analysing the long-term evolution of such traits under the density-dependent and frequency-dependent selection pressures resulting from feedback between evolving populations and their ecological environment. Starting from individual-based considerations, we derive equations describing the expected dynamics of a function-valued trait in asexually reproducing populations under mutation-limited evolution, thus generalizing the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics to function-valued traits. We explain in detail how to account for various kinds of evolutionary constraints on the adaptive dynamics of function-valued traits. To illustrate the utility of our approach, we present applications to two specific examples that address, respectively, the evolution of metabolic investment strategies along resource gradients, and the evolution of seasonal flowering schedules in temporally varying environments.     

Local adaptation,dispersal evolution,and the spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics of invasion

Local adaptation and dispersal evolution are key evolutionary processes shaping the invasion dynamics of populations colonizing new environments. Yet their interaction is largely unresolved. Using a single‐species population model along a one‐dimensional environmental gradient, we show how local competition and dispersal jointly shape the eco‐evolutionary dynamics and speed of invasion. From a focal introduction site, the generic pattern predicted by our model features a temporal transition from wave‐like to pulsed invasion. Each regime is driven primarily by local adaptation, while the transition is caused by eco‐evolutionary feedbacks mediated by dispersal. The interaction range and cost of dispersal arise as key factors of the duration and speed of each phase. Our results demonstrate that spatial eco‐evolutionary feedbacks along environmental gradients can drive strong temporal variation in the rate and structure of population spread, and must be considered to better understand and forecast invasion rates and range dynamics.     

Modelling the adaptive dynamics of traits involved in inter- and intraspecific interactions: An assessment of three methods

In recent years, three related methods have been used to model the phenotypic dynamics of traits under the influence of natural selection. The first is based on an approximation to quantitative genetic recursion equations for sexual populations. The second is based on evolution in asexual lineages with mutation-generated variation. The third method finds an evolutionarily stable set of phenotypes for species characterized by a given set of fitness functions, assuming that the mode of reproduction places no constraints on the number of distinct types that can be maintained in the population. The three methods share the property that the rate of change of a trait within a homogeneous population is approximately proportional to the individual fitness gradient. The methods differ in assumptions about the potential magnitude of phenotypic differences in mutant forms, and in their assumptions about the probability that invasion or speciation occurs when a species has a stable, yet invadable phenotype. Determining the range of applicability of the different methods is important for assessing the validity of optimization methods in predicting the evolutionary outcome of ecological interactions. Methods based on quantitative genetic models predict that fitness minimizing traits will often be evolutionarily stable over significant time periods, while other approaches suggest this is likely to be rare. A more detailed study of cases of disruptive selection might reveal whether fitness-minimizing traits occur frequently in natural communities.     

Evolution of dominance under frequency-dependent intraspecific competition

A population-genetic analysis is performed of a two-locus two-allele model, in which the primary locus has a major effect on a quantitative trait that is under frequency-dependent disruptive selection caused by intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources. The modifier locus determines the degree of dominance at the trait level. We establish the conditions when a modifier allele can invade and when it becomes fixed if sufficiently frequent. In general, these are not equivalent because an unstable internal equilibrium may exist and the condition for successful invasion of the modifier is more restrictive than that for eventual fixation from already high frequency. However, successful invasion implies global fixation, i.e., fixation from any initial condition. Modifiers of large effect can become fixed, and also invade, in a wider parameter range than modifiers of small effect. We also study modifiers with a direct, frequency-independent deleterious fitness effect. We show that they can invade if they induce a sufficiently high level of dominance and if disruptive selection on the ecological trait is strong enough. For deleterious modifiers, successful invasion no longer implies global fixation because they can become stuck at an intermediate frequency due to a stable internal equilibrium. Although the conditions for invasion and for fixation if sufficiently frequent are independent of the linkage relation between the two loci, the rate of spread depends strongly on it. The present study provides further support to the view that evolution of dominance may be an efficient mechanism to remove unfit heterozygotes that are maintained by balancing selection. It also demonstrates that an invasion analysis of mutants of very small effect is insufficient to obtain a full understanding of the evolutionary dynamics under frequency-dependent selection.     

The influence of habitat boundaries on evolutionary branching along environmental gradients

It is well known that habitat boundaries affect ecological dynamics, but their influence on evolutionary dynamics is less well understood. Here, we study the effects of different kinds of boundaries on evolutionary branching in clonal populations along environmental gradients by systematically analyzing individual-based stochastic models in small- and large-range systems, as well as their large-population-size limits through deterministic approximations. Specifically, we examine four prototypical kinds of boundaries: impermeable boundaries at which individuals stop (“stopping”), or from which they continue back into the interior as if bouncing back mechanically (“reflecting”), or that let them abort the dispersal attempt, return to their original position and try a different direction (“reprising”), and semipermeable boundaries that can be crossed without hindrance, but do not allow the crossing individual to return (“absorbing”).We find that boundary conditions shape branching patterns only in small-range systems, where stopping boundaries generate disruptive selection for a wide range of parameters, whereas absorbing boundaries always generate stabilizing selection. Reflecting and reprising boundaries generate disruptive selection at low individual mobilities, and stabilizing selection at high mobilities. To further analyze these findings, we introduce a simple approximation of the invasion fitness in a mobile population, which predicts the observed outcome. The effect of stochasticity on evolutionary outcomes is small even in small populations: stochasticity causes random branch extinctions at steeper slopes and higher mobilities. In large-range systems, frequency-dependent interactions alone induce evolutionary branching for almost all parameters and independent of boundary conditions.     

Evolutionary dynamics through multispecies competition

Disruptive selection, emerging from frequency-dependent intraspecific competition can have very exciting evolutionary outcomes. One such outcome is the origin of new species through an evolutionary branching event. Literature on theoretical models investigating the emergence of disruptive selection is vast, with some investigating the sensitivity of the models on assumptions of the competition and carrying capacity functions’ shapes. What is seldom modeled is what happens once the population escapes its effect via increase phenotypic or genotypic variance. The expectation is mixed: disruptive selection could diminish and ultimately disappear or it could still exist leading to further speciation events through multiple evolutionary branching events. Here, we derive the conditions under which disruptive selection drives two subpopulations that originated at a branching point to other points in trait space where each subpopulation again experiences disruptive selection. We show that the general pattern for further branchings require that the competition function to be even narrower than what is required for the first evolutionary branching. However, we also show that the existence of disruptive selection in higher dimensional systems is also sensitive to the shapes of the functions used.     

The one-third law of evolutionary dynamics

Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations provide a new framework for studying selection of traits with frequency-dependent fitness. Recently, a "one-third law" of evolutionary dynamics has been described, which states that strategy A fixates in a B-population with selective advantage if the fitness of A is greater than that of B when A has a frequency 13. This relationship holds for all evolutionary processes examined so far, from the Moran process to games on graphs. However, the origin of the "number"13 is not understood. In this paper we provide an intuitive explanation by studying the underlying stochastic processes. We find that in one invasion attempt, an individual interacts on average with B-players twice as often as with A-players, which yields the one-third law. We also show that the one-third law implies that the average Malthusian fitness of A is positive.     

The evolution of resource specialization through frequency-dependent and frequency-independent mechanisms

Levins's fitness set approach has shaped the intuition of many evolutionary ecologists about resource specialization: if the set of possible phenotypes is convex, a generalist is favored, while either of the two specialists is predicted for concave phenotype sets. An important aspect of Levins's approach is that it explicitly excludes frequency-dependent selection. Frequency dependence emerged in a series of models that studied the degree of character displacement of two consumers coexisting on two resources. Surprisingly, the evolutionary dynamics of a single consumer type under frequency dependence has not been studied in detail. We analyze a model of one evolving consumer feeding on two resources and show that, depending on the trait considered to be subject to evolutionary change, selection is either frequency independent or frequency dependent. This difference is explained by the effects different foraging traits have on the consumer-resource interactions. If selection is frequency dependent, then the population can become dimorphic through evolutionary branching at the trait value of the generalist. Those traits with frequency-independent selection, however, do indeed follow the predictions based on Levins's fitness set approach. This dichotomy in the evolutionary dynamics of traits involved in the same foraging process was not previously recognized.     

An Evolutionary Dynamics Model Adapted to Eusocial Insects

This study aims to better understand the evolutionary processes allowing species coexistence in eusocial insect communities. We develop a mathematical model that applies adaptive dynamics theory to the evolutionary dynamics of eusocial insects, focusing on the colony as the unit of selection. The model links long-term evolutionary processes to ecological interactions among colonies and seasonal worker production within the colony. Colony population dynamics is defined by both worker production and colony reproduction. Random mutations occur in strategies, and mutant colonies enter the community. The interactions of colonies at the ecological timescale drive the evolution of strategies at the evolutionary timescale by natural selection. This model is used to study two specific traits in ants: worker body size and the degree of collective foraging. For both traits, trade-offs in competitive ability and other fitness components allows to determine conditions in which selection becomes disruptive. Our results illustrate that asymmetric competition underpins diversity in ant communities.     

What life cycle graphs can tell about the evolution of life histories

We analyze long-term evolutionary dynamics in a large class of life history models. The model family is characterized by discrete-time population dynamics and a finite number of individual states such that the life cycle can be described in terms of a population projection matrix. We allow an arbitrary number of demographic parameters to be subject to density-dependent population regulation and two or more demographic parameters to be subject to evolutionary change. Our aim is to identify structural features of life cycles and modes of population regulation that correspond to specific evolutionary dynamics. Our derivations are based on a fitness proxy that is an algebraically simple function of loops within the life cycle. This allows us to phrase the results in terms of properties of such loops which are readily interpreted biologically. The following results could be obtained. First, we give sufficient conditions for the existence of optimisation principles in models with an arbitrary number of evolving traits. These models are then classified with respect to their appropriate optimisation principle. Second, under the assumption of just two evolving traits we identify structural features of the life cycle that determine whether equilibria of the monomorphic adaptive dynamics (evolutionarily singular points) correspond to fitness minima or maxima. Third, for one class of frequency-dependent models, where optimisation is not possible, we present sufficient conditions that allow classifying singular points in terms of the curvature of the trade-off curve. Throughout the article we illustrate the utility of our framework with a variety of examples.     

Thermodynamical interpretation of evolutionary dynamics on a fitness landscape in an evolution reactor,II

In our previous report [Aita, T., Morinaga, S., Hosimi, Y., 2004. Thermodynamical interpretation of evolutionary dynamics on a fitness landscape in an evolution reactor I. Bull. Math. Biol. 66, 1371–1403], an analogy between thermodynamics and adaptive walks on a Mt. Fuji-type fitness landscape in an artificial selection system was presented. Introducing the ‘free fitness’ as the sum of a fitness term and an entropy term and ‘evolutionary force’ as the gradient of free fitness on a fitness coordinate, we demonstrated that the adaptive walk (=evolution) is driven by the evolutionary force in the direction in which free fitness increases. In this report, we examine the effect of various modifications of the original model on the properties of the adaptive walk. The modifications were as follows: first, mutation distance d was distributed obeying binomial distribution; second, the selection process obeyed the natural selection protocol; third, ruggedness was introduced to the landscape according to the NK model; fourth, a noise was included in the fitness measurement. The effect of each modification was described in the same theoretical framework as the original model by introducing ‘effective’ quantities such as the effective mutation distance or the effective screening size.     

Sexual dimorphism and adaptive speciation: two sides of the same ecological coin

Models of adaptive speciation are typically concerned with demonstrating that it is possible for ecologically driven disruptive selection to lead to the evolution of assortative mating and hence speciation. However, disruptive selection could also lead to other forms of evolutionary diversification, including ecological sexual dimorphisms. Using a model of frequency-dependent intraspecific competition, we show analytically that adaptive speciation and dimorphism require identical ecological conditions. Numerical simulations of individual-based models show that a single ecological model can produce either evolutionary outcome, depending on the genetic independence of male and female traits and the potential strength of assortative mating. Speciation is inhibited when the genetic basis of male and female ecological traits allows the sexes to diverge substantially. This is because sexual dimorphism, which can evolve quickly, can eliminate the frequency-dependent disruptive selection that would have provided the impetus for speciation. Conversely, populations with strong assortative mating based on ecological traits are less likely to evolve a sexual dimorphism because females cannot simultaneously prefer males more similar to themselves while still allowing the males to diverge. This conflict between speciation and dimorphism can be circumvented in two ways. First, we find a novel form of speciation via negative assortative mating, leading to two dimorphic daughter species. Second, if assortative mating is based on a neutral marker trait, trophic dimorphism and speciation by positive assortative mating can occur simultaneously. We conclude that while adaptive speciation and ecological sexual dimorphism may occur simultaneously, allowing for sexual dimorphism restricts the likelihood of adaptive speciation. Thus, it is important to recognize that disruptive selection due to frequency-dependent interactions can lead to more than one form of adaptive splitting.