Size variability of juvenile Atlantic salmon: links to environmental conditions

Climate change models predict a 2 to 6° C increase in air temperature within the next 100 years in the Maritime Provinces of eastern Canada. Higher air temperatures are expected to contribute to increased water temperatures, alterations in stream flow conditions, and ultimately reductions in fish growth. Mean annual size-at-age of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar decreased in the Northwest Miramichi and Southwest Miramichi Rivers between 1971–1999. Lengths-at-age of juveniles were significantly correlated between the two rivers. For Atlantic salmon parr, stronger associations between inter-cohort fork length ( L _F) than intra-cohort L _F were observed, suggesting that environmental conditions in the current year of growth have the more significant effects on size of age 2 year parr than conditions encountered the previous year by age 1 year parr of the same cohort. Fork lengths of parr were significantly and negatively associated with spring air and water temperatures. In the Miramichi River, increases in air and water temperature as predicted from climate change models may adversely affect growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon parr, reducing the overall productivity of the Atlantic salmon populations in this region.     

Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe

This paper analyses the dependence of the first spring arrival dates of short/medium- and long-distance migrant bird species on climate warming in eastern Europe. The timing of arrival of the selected species at the observation site correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and wind characteristics. A positive correlation of fluctuations in winter and spring air temperatures with variations in the NAO index has been established in eastern Europe. Positive winter NAO index values are related to earlier spring arrival of birds in the eastern Baltic region and vice versa—arrival is late when the NAO index is negative. The impact of climate warming on the bird’s life cycle depends on local or regional climate characteristics. We tested the hypothesis that differences in climate indices between North Africa and Europe can influence the timing of spring arrival. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in first spring arrival dates between European populations occur after individuals cross the Sahara. We assume that the endogenous programme of migration control in short/medium-distance migrants synchronises with the changing environment on their wintering grounds and along their migration routes, whereas in long-distance migrants it is rather with environmental changes in the second part of their migratory route in Europe. Our results strongly indicate that the mechanism of dynamic balance in the interaction between the endogenous regulatory programme and environmental factors determines the pattern of spring arrival, as well as migration timing.     

Distribution-wide effects of climate on population densities of a declining migratory landbird

1. Increases in global temperatures have created concern about effects of climatic variability on populations, and climate has been shown to affect population dynamics in an increasing number of species. Testing for effects of climate on population densities across a species' distribution allows for elucidation of effects of climate that would not be apparent at smaller spatial scales. 2. Using autoregressive population models, we tested for effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual population densities of a North American migratory landbird, the yellow-billed cuckoo Coccyzus americanus, across the species' breeding distribution over a 37-year period (1966-2002). 3. Our results indicate that both the NAO and ENSO have affected population densities of C. americanus across much of the species' breeding range, with the strongest effects of climate in regions in which these climate systems have the strongest effects on local temperatures. Analyses also indicate that the strength of the effect of local temperatures on C. americanus populations was predictive of long-term population decline, with populations that were more negatively affected by warm temperatures experiencing steeper declines. 4. Results of this study highlight the importance of distribution-wide analyses of climatic effects and demonstrate that increases in global temperatures have the potential to lead to additional population declines.     

Climate control on the long-term anomalous changes of zooplankton communities in the Northwestern Mediterranean

In marine ecosystems, pelagic copepods, chaetognaths and jellyfish play a key role in matter and energy flow. While copepods support most food webs and the biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean, chaetognaths and jellyfish may affect the strength of the top-down control upon plankton communities. In this study, we show that the main events in the long-term variability of these functional groups in the Northwestern Mediterranean were tightly linked to changes of climate forcing of the North Atlantic sector. Large-scale climate forcing has altered the pelagic food-web dynamics through changes in biological interactions, competition and predation, leading to substantial changes manifested as bursts or collapses in zooplankton populations, and consequently to a major change ca. 1987. These events become more frequent in the 1980s and the early 1990s in the studied zooplankton functional groups suggesting a shift in the functioning of the pelagic ecosystem. The environmental modifications and the results reported here are therefore, indicators of a regime change pointing to a more regeneration-dominated system in the study area. We suggest a chain of mechanisms, whereby climate variation has modified the long-term dynamics of pelagic copepods, chaetognaths and jellyfish in the Ligurian Sea.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over Europe

We present an integrated modeling study designed to investigate changes in ecosystem level phenology over Europe associated with changes in climate pattern, by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We derived onset dates from processed NDVI data sets and used growing degree day (GDD) summations from the NCEP re‐analysis to calibrate and validate a phenology model to predict the onset of the growing season over Europe. In a cross‐validation hindcast, the model (PHENOM) is able to explain 63% of the variance in onset date for grid cells containing at least 50% mixed and boreal forest. Using a model developed from previous work we performed climate change scenarios, generating synthetic temperature and GDD distributions under a hypothetically increasing NAO. These new distributions were used to drive PHENOM and project changes in the timing of onset for forested cells over Europe. Results from the climate change scenarios indicate that, if the current trend in the NAO continues, there is the potential for a continued advance to the start of the growing season by as much as 13 days in some areas.     

Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes

1. Linking a regional climate model (RCM) configured for contemporary atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, with a phytoplankton community model (PROTECH) produced realistic simulations of 20 years of recent phytoplankton data from Bassenthwaite Lake, in the North‐West of England. 2. Meteorological drivers were derived from the RCM to represent a future climate scenario involving a 1% per annum compound increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations until 2100. Using these drivers, PROTECH was run for another 20 year period representing the last two decades of the 21st century. 3. Comparison of these present and future simulations revealed likely impacts on the current seasonal phytoplankton development. Under future climate conditions, the simulated spring bloom showed an increase in cyanobacteria dominance caused by greater success of Planktothrix. Also, the summer cyanobacteria bloom declined earlier because of nutrient limitation caused by the increased spring growth. Overall productivity in the lake did not change. 4. Analysis showed that these predicted changes were driven by changes in water temperature, which were in turn triggered by the higher air temperatures predicted by the RCM.     

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982–2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift (Apus apus), nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), and house martin (Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling (Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow (Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.     

Rapidly advancing laying date in a seabird and the changing advantage of early reproduction

1. Bird ringing schemes have collected immense amounts of data on timing of breeding for over 100 years. These data provide an unexploited source of information on temporal change in breeding date. 2. We investigated changes in breeding date of the Arctic tern Sterna paradisaea Pont. in Denmark during 1929-98, using information on ringing date of young. 3. Mean ringing date advanced by over 18 days during 70 years, while there was no temporal change in variance in date. 4. Advanced mean ringing date was explained by an increase in mean temperature during April and May and an increase in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for May. 5. Variance in ringing date increased in years with high temperatures in April and high NAO index values in April. 6. There was changing temporal patterns of selection for early breeding as reflected by analyses of the difference in mean ringing date for Arctic tern young that were subsequently recorded as survivors and mean ringing date for all young. The intensity of selection on breeding date changed from favouring late breeding in the 1930s to favouring early breeding during the 1990s. 7. Analyses of bird ringing information for millions of offspring of hundreds of bird species deposited in national ringing schemes may provide unlimited access to long-term time series of reproductive variables.     

Sub-saharan desertification and productivity are linked to hemispheric climate variability

Vegetation productivity and desertification in sub‐Saharan Africa may be influenced by global climate variability attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Combined and individual effects of the NAO and ENSO indices revealed that 75% of the interannual variation in the area of Sahara Desert was accounted for by the combined effects, with most variance attributable to the NAO. Effects were shown in the latitudinal variation on the 200 mm isocline, which was influenced mostly by the NAO. The combined indices explained much of the interannual variability in vegetation productivity in the Sahelian zone and southern Africa, implying that both the NAO and ENSO may be useful for monitoring effects of global climate change in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Food web changes in arctic ecosystems related to climate warming

Sedimentary records from three Canadian High Arctic ponds on Ellesmere Island, spanning the last several thousand years, show major shifts in pond communities within the last ～200 years. These paleolimnological data indicate that aquatic insect (Diptera: Chironomidae) populations rapidly expanded and greatly increased in community diversity beginning in the 19th century. These invertebrate changes coincided with striking shifts in algal (diatom) populations, indicating strong food‐web effects because of climate warming and reduced ice‐cover in ponds. Predicted future warming in the Arctic may produce ecological changes that exceed the large shifts that have already occurred since the 19th century.     

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation, temperature and ischaemic heart disease mortality in three English counties

As cold weather is an ischaemic heart disease (IHD) risk factor, year-to-year variations of the level of IHD mortality may be partly determined by inter-annual variations in winter climate. This paper investigates whether there is any association between the level of IHD mortality for three English counties and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts a fundamental control on the nature of the winter climate over Western Europe. Correlation and regression analysis was used to explore the nature of the association between IHD mortality and a climate index (CI) that represents the interaction between the NAO and temperature across England for the winters 1974–1975 to 1989–1999. Statistically significant inverse associations between the CI and the level of IHD mortality were found. Generally, high levels of winter IHD mortality are associated with a negative CI, which represents winters with a strong negative phase of the NAO and anomalously low temperatures across England. Moreover, the nature of the CI in the early stages of winter appears to exert a fundamental control on the general level of winter IHD mortality. Because winter climate is able to explain a good proportion of the inter-annual variability of winter mortality, long-lead forecasting of winter IHD mortality appears to be a possibility. The integration of climate-based health forecasts into decision support tools for advanced general winter emergency service and capacity planning could form the basis of an effective adaptive strategy for coping with the health effects of harsh winters.     

Factors influencing the temporal coherence of five lakes in the English Lake District

1. The lakes in the Windermere catchment are all deep, glacial lakes but they differ in size, shape and general productivity. Here, we examine the extent to which year‐to‐year variations in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of these lakes varied synchronously over a 30–40‐year period. 2. Coherence was estimated by correlating time‐series of the spring, summer, autumn and winter characteristics of five lakes: Esthwaite Water, Blelham Tarn, Grasmere and the North and South Basins of Windermere. Three physical, four chemical and two biological time‐series were analysed and related to year‐to‐year variations in a number of key driving variables. 3. The highest levels of coherence were recorded for the physical and chemical variables where the average coherence was 0.81. The average coherence for the biological variables was 0.11 and there were a number of significant negative relationships. The average coherence between all possible lake pairs was 0.59 and average values ranged from 0.50 to 0.74. A graphical analysis of these results demonstrated that the coherence between individual lake pairs was influenced by the relative size of the basins as well as their trophic status. 4. A series of examples is presented to demonstrate how a small number of driving variables influenced the observed levels of coherence. These range from a simple example where the winter temperature of the lakes was correlated with the climatic index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, to a more complex example where the summer abundance of zooplankton was correlated with wind‐mixing. 5. The implications of these findings are discussed and a conceptual model developed to illustrate the principal factors influencing temporal coherence in lake systems. The model suggests that our ability to detect temporal coherence depends on the relative magnitude of three factors: (a) the amplitude of the year‐to‐year variations; (b) the spatial heterogeneity of the driving variables and (c) the error terms associated with any particular measurement.     

Mitochondrial DNA variation in Atlantic salmon, Salmo, salar L., populations

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation was examined in 209 Atlantic salmon from two river systems, the R. Itchen in Hampshire (Southern England) and the R. Conwy (North Wales). Within each system, five spawning sites were sampled. Four enzymes (AVA II, HAE III, HINF I and MBO I) revealed restriction fragment polymorphisms that were informative. Ten clonal lines were observed. These clones were differentially distributed between the two river systems and single clonal types were found to predominate at several spawning sites. MBO I variants were found in salmon from the R. Itchen but not the R. Conwy. A significant heterogeneity in frequency distribution of clonal lines between parr and smolt assemblages of the same year class within the R. Itchen was detected. This heterogeneity suggests that differences in survival or migratory behaviour may be identified by changes in mtDNA clonal frequencies.     

An indoor mesocosm system to study the effect of climate change on the late winter and spring succession of Baltic Sea phyto- and zooplankton

An indoor mesocosm system was set up to study the response of phytoplankton and zooplankton spring succession to winter and spring warming of sea surface temperatures. The experimental temperature regimes consisted of the decadal average of the Kiel Bight, Baltic Sea, and three elevated regimes with 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C temperature difference from that at baseline. While the peak of the phytoplankton spring bloom was accelerated only weakly by increasing temperatures (1.4 days per degree Celsius), the subsequent biomass minimum of phytoplankton was accelerated more strongly (4.25 days per degree Celsius). Phytoplankton size structure showed a pronounced response to warming, with large phytoplankton being more dominant in the cooler mesocosms. The first seasonal ciliate peak was accelerated by 2.1 days per degree Celsius and the second one by 2.0 days per degree Celsius. The over-wintering copepod populations declined faster in the warmer mesocosm, and the appearance of nauplii was strongly accelerated by temperature (9.2 days per degree Celsius). The strong difference between the acceleration of the phytoplankton peak and the acceleration of the nauplii could be one of the “Achilles heels” of pelagic systems subject to climate change, because nauplii are the most starvation-sensitive life cycle stage of copepods and the most important food item of first-feeding fish larvae. Priority programme of the German Research Foundation—contribution 3.     

Climate change and the phytoplankton spring bloom: warming and overwintering zooplankton have similar effects on phytoplankton

Indoor mesocosms were used to study the combined effect of warming and of different densities of overwintering mesozooplankton (mainly copepods) on the spring development of phytoplankton in shallow, coastal waters. Similar to previous studies, warming accelerated the spring phytoplankton peak by ca. 1 day °C^?1 whereas zooplankton did not significantly influence timing. Phytoplankton biomass during the experimental period decreased with warming and with higher densities of overwintering zooplankton. Similarly, average cell size and average effective particle size (here: colony size) decreased both with zooplankton density and warming. A decrease in phytoplankton particle size is generally considered at typical footprint of copepod grazing. We conclude that warming induced changes in the magnitude and structure of the phytoplankton spring bloom cannot be understood without considering grazing by overwintering zooplankton.