Strong artificial selection in the wild results in predicted small evolutionary change

Estimates of genetic variation and selection allow for quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, at least in controlled laboratory experiments. Natural populations are, however, different in many ways, and natural selection on heritable traits does not always result in phenotypic change. To test whether we were able to predict the evolutionary dynamics of a complex trait measured in a natural, heterogeneous environment, we performed, over an 8-year period, a two-way selection experiment on clutch size in a subdivided island population of great tits (Parus major). Despite strong artificial selection, there was no clear evidence for evolutionary change at the phenotypic level. Environmentally induced differences in clutch size among years are, however, large and can mask evolutionary changes. Indeed, genetic changes in clutch size, inferred from a statistical model, did not deviate systematically from those predicted. Although this shows that estimates of genetic variation and selection can indeed provide quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, also in the wild, it also emphasizes that demonstrating evolution in wild populations is difficult, and that the interpretation of phenotypic trends requires great care.     

Covariation in Insular Life-history Traits of the Rice Frog(Fejervarya limnocharis)in Eastern China

Although shifts in life-history traits of insular vertebrates, as compared with mainland populations, have been observed in many taxa, few studies have examined the relationships among individual life-history traits on islands. Lifehistory theory also predicts that there is a trade-off between body size and reproductive effort, and between egg size and clutch size. We surveyed the rice frog, Fejervarya limnocharis, on 20 islands within the Zhoushan Archipelago and two nearby sites on the mainland of China to compare differences in life-history traits and to explore relationships among those traits. Rice frog females reached a greater body size on half of the smaller islands among the total 20 surveyed islands, and larger egg size, decreased clutch size and reduced reproductive effort on most of the islands when compared to the two mainland sites. Insular body size was negatively correlated with reproductive effort. There was a negative correlation between egg size and clutch size. Results suggest that life-history theory provides a good explanation for co-variation between body size and reproductive effort, and between egg size and clutch size in rice frogs on the islands.     

Insular shifts and trade-offs in life-history traits in pond frogs in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China

Island and mainland populations of animal species often differ strikingly in life-history traits such as clutch size, egg size, total reproductive effort and body size. However, despite widespread recognition of insular shifts in these life-history traits in birds, mammals and reptiles, there have been no reports of such life-history shifts in amphibians. Furthermore, most studies have focused on one specific life-history trait without explicit consideration of coordinated evolution among these intimately linked life-history traits, and thus the relationships among these traits are poorly studied. Here we provide the first evidence of insular shifts and trade-offs in a coordinated suite of life-history traits for an amphibian species, the pond frog Rana nigromaculata . Life-history data were collected from eight islands in the Zhoushan Archipelago and neighboring mainland China. We found consistent, significant shifts in all life-history traits between mainland and island populations. Island populations had smaller clutch sizes, larger egg sizes, larger female body size and invested less in total reproductive effort than mainland populations. Significant negative relationships were found between egg size and clutch size and between egg size and total reproductive effort among frog populations after controlling for the effects of body size. Therefore, decreased reproductive effort and clutch size, larger egg size and body size in pond frogs on islands were selected through trade-offs as an overall life-history strategy. Our findings contribute to the formation of a broad, repeatable ecological generality for insular shifts in life-history traits across a range of terrestrial vertebrate taxa.     

Life history evolution in cichlids 2: directional evolution of the trade-off between egg number and egg size

The negative relationship between offspring number and offspring size provides a classic example of the role of trade-offs in life history theory. However, the evolutionary transitions in egg size and clutch size that have produced this negative relationship are still largely unknown. Since body size may affect both of these traits, it would be helpful to understand how evolutionary changes in body size may have facilitated or constrained shifts in clutch and egg size. By using comparative methods with a database of life histories and a phylogeny of 222 genera of cichlid fishes, we investigated the order of evolutionary transitions in these traits in relation to each other. We found that the ancestral large-bodied cichlids first increased egg size, followed by a decrease in both body size and clutch size resulting in the common current combination of a small-bodied cichlid with a small clutch of large eggs. Furthermore, lineages that deviated from the negative relationship between clutch and egg size underwent different transitions in these traits according to their body size (large bodied genera have moved towards the large clutch/small egg end of the continuum and small bodied genera towards the small clutch/large egg end of the continuum) to reach the negative relationship between clutch size and egg size. Our results show that body size is highly important in shaping the negative relationship between clutch size and egg size.     

Evolutionary divergence in life history traits among populations of the Lake Malawi cichlid fish Astatotilapia calliptera

During the early stages of adaptive radiation, populations diverge in life history traits such as egg size and growth rates, in addition to eco‐morphological and behavioral characteristics. However, there are few studies of life history divergence within ongoing adaptive radiations. Here, we studied Astatotilapia calliptera, a maternal mouthbrooding cichlid fish within the Lake Malawi haplochromine radiation. This species occupies a rich diversity of habitats, including the main body of Lake Malawi, as well as peripheral rivers and shallow lakes. We used common garden experiments to test for life history divergence among populations, focussing on clutch size, duration of incubation, egg mass, offspring size, and growth rates. In a first experiment, we found significant differences among populations in average clutch size and egg mass, and larger clutches were associated with smaller eggs. In a second experiment, we found significant differences among populations in brood size, duration of incubation, juvenile length when released, and growth rates. Larger broods were associated with smaller juveniles when released and shorter incubation times. Although juvenile growth rates differed between populations, these were not strongly related to initial size on release. Overall, differences in life history characters among populations were not predicted by major habitat classifications (Lake Malawi or peripheral habitats) or population genetic divergence (microsatellite‐based F_ST). We suggest that the observed patterns are consistent with local selective forces driving the observed patterns of trait divergence. The results provide strong evidence of evolutionary divergence and covariance of life history traits among populations within a radiating cichlid species, highlighting opportunities for further work to identify the processes driving the observed divergence.     

Components of uncertainty in clutch-size optimization

Environmental uncertainty can be both a cause and consequence of chance variation in many of the phenotypic factors associated with the control of clutch size in birds. When such uncertainty inflates or otherwise influences the variance associated with expected reproductive success for any genotype, it will also influence the resulting phenotypic optima. Random variation that affects the evolution of clutch size optima explicitly may occur both within (intra-) and across (inter-) generations. Examples of intra-generational uncertainty could include chance variation in: (1) the quality and quantity of offspring, (2) parental quality, and (3) temporal resources like food. Inter-generational uncertainty would include chance variation in demographic and population characters. With respect to clutch (or litter) size, almost all forms of uncertainty tend to favor an optimum (genetic) strategy with a clutch that is smaller than the clutch associated with the apparent or actual maximal fitness of an individual parent. The overall effect of all the components of uncertainty can be evaluated through the integration of all this phenotypic variation: however each step of the integration is a conditional expectation of each component. Therefore, a single factor analysis may indicate a false optimum, and an integrated analysis of all components is necessary to evaluate the importance of their individual and joint effects on the adaptive evolution of clutch size.     

Measuring temporal variation in reproductive output reveals optimal resource allocation to reproduction in the northern grass lizard, Takydromus septentrionalis

We measured the reproductive output of Takydromus septentrionalis collected over 5 years between 1997 and 2005 to test the hypothesis that reproductive females should allocate an optimal fraction of accessible resources in a particular clutch and to individual eggs. Females laid 1–7 clutches per breeding season, with large females producing more, as well as larger clutches, than did small females. Clutch size, clutch mass, annual fecundity, and annual reproductive output were all positively related to female size (snout–vent length). Females switched from producing more, but smaller eggs in the first clutch to fewer, but larger eggs in the subsequent clutches. The mass-specific clutch mass was greater in the first clutch than in the subsequent clutches, but it did not differ among the subsequent clutches. Post-oviposition body mass, clutch size, and egg size showed differing degrees of annual variation, but clutch mass of either the first or the second clutch remained unchanged across the sampling years. The regression line describing the size–number trade-off was higher in the subsequent clutch than in the first clutch, but neither the line for first clutch, nor the line for the second clutch varied among years. Reproduction retarded growth more markedly in small females than in large ones. Our data show that: (1) trade-offs between size and number of eggs and between reproduction and growth (and thus, future reproduction) are evident in T. septentrionalis ; (2) females allocate an optimal fraction of accessible resources in current reproduction and to individual eggs; and (3) seasonal shifts in reproductive output and egg size are determined ultimately by natural selection.  © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 91 , 315–324.     

Can sexual selection drive female life histories? A comparative study on Galliform birds

Sexual selection has been identified as a major evolutionary force shaping male life history traits but its impact on female life history evolution is less clear. Here we examine the impact of sexual selection on three key female traits (body size, egg size and clutch size) in Galliform birds. Using comparative independent contrast analyses and directional discrete analyses, based on published data and a new genera-level supertree phylogeny of Galliform birds, we investigated how sexual selection [quantified as sexual size dimorphism (SSD) and social mating system (MS)] affects these three important female traits. We found that female body mass was strongly and positively correlated with egg size but not with clutch size, and that clutch size decreased as egg size increased. We established that SSD was related to MS, and then used SSD as a proxy of the strength of sexual selection. We found both a positive relationship between SSD and female body mass and egg size and that increases in female body mass and egg size tend to occur following increases in SSD in this bird order. This pattern of female body mass increases lagging behind changes in SSD, established using our directional discrete analysis, suggests that female body mass increases as a response to increases in the level of sexual selection and not simply through a strong genetic relationship with male body mass. This suggests that sexual selection is linked to changes in female life history traits in Galliformes and we discuss how this link may shape patterns of life history variation among species.     

Phenotypic plasticity and constancy of life-history traits in laboratory clones of Daphnia magna Straus: effects of neonatal length

1. The phenotypic constancy of four laboratory Daphnia magna clones in fitness-related life-history traits, such as age and clutch size at maturity, was studied among consecutive experimental runs in differing food environments.
2. A significant part of the observed clonal and genetic-by-environmental variation in age and clutch size at maturity was explained by experimentally uncontrollable variations in neonatal body length.
3. Despite food availability, neonatal length determined the number of instars invested to maturity and thus maturation age. Clonal differences in neonatal length and thus in maturation instar occurrence across environments explained most of the clonal variability observed in maturation age.
4. Although interclonal differences in clutch size existed, most of the phenotypic plasticity observed for clutch size was mediated by clonal differences in neonatal length.
5. Clonal differences in neonatal length and in the occurrence of maturation instars across environments dramatically affected the body length of instar IM-2 where provisioning of eggs take place. Since clutch size is determined from clutch mass and clutch mass was strongly related to the body length of instar IM-2, clonal differences across environments in body length of instar IM-2 mirrored clonal differences across environments in clutch size.
6. The results reported in the present study show that maternally mediated traits such as neonatal length affect how genotypes respond to different environmental selection regimes (genetic-by-environmental interaction). Future research needs to focus on the effects of neonatal length on the heritability or genetic variation of the reaction norms, since prediction of the response to selection is a key research objective in quantitative genetic studies.     

The quantitative genetics of two life history trade-offs in the yellow dung fly in abundant and limited food environments

The trade-offs between body size and development time and between egg size and egg number (clutch size) are central to life history theory, but evidence for them, particularly in terms of genetic correlations, is equivocal. For the yellow dung fly Scathophaga stercoraria (Diptera: Scathophagidae), we investigated variation in phenotypic and genetic variances and covariances, i.e. heritabilities and genetic correlations, of these life history traits (plus diapause) in benign and stressful larval field or adult laboratory food environments. We found both trade-offs to be weak, as evidenced by low phenotypic and genetic correlations, but stronger in the food limited environments. Broad sense heritabilities were generally significant for all traits considered, whereas the narrow sense heritabilities for egg and clutch size were nil. With regard to the question of how environmental stress affects heritabilities, we found a whole range of responses within one single species depending on the traits considered. All three possible patterns occurred, i.e. increased h² due to increased V_G or decreased decreased h² due to increased and no change in h² due to increased V_G and V_P. These can be explained by the particular ecological circumstances yellow dung flies face in their natural environment. Nevertheless, the majority of patterns was consistent with the idea that stressful conditions amplify phenotypic differences between genotypes. Such variable responses of traits even within one organism underscores the complexity of this issue and may well explain the multiple patterns found in various organisms.Co-ordinating editor: Leimar     

Ecological correlates of range shifts of Late Pleistocene mammals

Understanding and predicting how species' distributions will shift as climate changes are central questions in ecology today. The late Quaternary of North America represents a natural experiment in which we can evaluate how species responded during the expansion and contraction of the glaciers. Here, we ask whether species' range shifts differ because of taxonomic affinity, life-history traits, body size or topographic heterogeneity and whether the species survived the megafaunal extinction. There was no difference in range shifts between victims and survivors of the megafaunal extinction. In general, the change in the size of a species' range is not well correlated with any of the ecological or life-history traits evaluated. However, there are significant relationships between some variables and the movements of the centroids of ranges. Differences in the distances shifted exist among orders, although this is probably a result of body size differences as larger bodied species show larger shifts. Although there are a few exceptions, the distance that species shifted their range was weakly correlated with life-history traits. Finally, species in more topographically heterogeneous areas show smaller shifts than species in less-diverse areas. Overall, these results indicate that when trying to predict species range shifts in the future, body size, lifespan and the topographic relief of the landscape should be taken into account.     

Co-Gradient Variation in Growth Rate and Development Time of a Broadly Distributed Butterfly

Widespread species often show geographic variation in thermally-sensitive traits, providing insight into how species respond to shifts in temperature through time. Such patterns may arise from phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation, or their interaction. In some cases, the effects of genotype and temperature may act together to reduce, or to exacerbate, phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits across varying thermal environments. We find evidence for such interactions in life-history traits of Heteronympha merope, a butterfly distributed across a broad latitudinal gradient in south-eastern Australia. We show that body size in this butterfly is negatively related to developmental temperature in the laboratory, in accordance with the temperature-size rule, but not in the field, despite very strong temperature gradients. A common garden experiment on larval thermal responses, spanning the environmental extremes of H. merope''s distribution, revealed that butterflies from low latitude (warmer climate) populations have relatively fast intrinsic growth and development rates compared to those from cooler climates. These synergistic effects of genotype and temperature across the landscape (co-gradient variation) are likely to accentuate phenotypic variation in these traits, and this interaction must be accounted for when predicting how H. merope will respond to temperature change through time. These results highlight the importance of understanding how variation in life-history traits may arise in response to environmental change. Without this knowledge, we may fail to detect whether organisms are tracking environmental change, and if they are, whether it is by plasticity, adaptation or both.     

Local plant density,pollination and trait–fitness relationships in a perennial herb

Both differences in local plant density and phenotypic traits may affect pollination and plant reproduction, but little is known about how density affects trait–fitness relationships via changes in pollinator activity. In this study we examined how plant density and traits interact to determine pollinator behaviour and female reproductive success in the self‐incompatible, perennial herb Phyteuma spicatum. Specifically, we hypothesised that limited pollination service in more isolated plants would lead to increased selection for traits that attract pollinators. We conducted pollinator observations and assessed trait–fitness relationships in a natural population, whose individuals were surrounded by a variable number of inflorescences. Both local plant density and plant phenotypic traits affected pollinator foraging behaviour. At low densities, pollinator visitation rates were low, but increased with increasing inflorescence size, while this relationship disappeared at high densities, where visitation rates were higher. Plant fitness, in terms of seed production per plant and per capsule, was related to both floral display size and flowering time. Seed production increased with increasing inflorescence size and was highest at peak flowering. However, trait–fitness relationships were not density‐dependent, and differences in seed production did not appear to be related to differences in pollination. The reasons for this remain unclear, and additional studies are needed to fully understand and explain the observed patterns.     

Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population

Global warming has had numerous effects on populations of animals and plants, with many species in temperate regions experiencing environmental change at unprecedented rates. Populations with low potential for adaptive evolutionary change and plasticity will have little chance of persistence in the face of environmental change. Assessment of the potential for adaptive evolution requires the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters, but it is as yet unclear what impact, if any, global warming will have on the expression of genetic variances and covariances. Here we assess the impact of a changing climate on the genetic architecture underlying three reproductive traits in a wild bird population. We use a large, long-term, data set collected on great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, and an 'animal model' approach to quantify the heritability of, and genetic correlations among, laying date, clutch size and egg mass during two periods with contrasting temperature conditions over a 40-year period (1965-1988 [cooler] vs. 1989-2004 [warmer]). We found significant additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits under both temperature regimes. We also found significant negative genetic covariances and correlations between clutch size and egg weight during both periods, and among laying date and clutch size in the colder years only. The overall G matrix comparison among periods, however, showed only a minor difference among periods, thus suggesting that genotype by environment interactions are negligible in this context. Our results therefore suggest that despite substantial changes in temperature and in mean laying date phenotype over the last decades, and despite the large sample sizes available, we are unable to detect any significant change in the genetic architecture of the reproductive traits studied.     

Testing for biases in selection on avian reproductive traits and partitioning direct and indirect selection using quantitative genetic models

Key life history traits such as breeding time and clutch size are frequently both heritable and under directional selection, yet many studies fail to document microevolutionary responses. One general explanation is that selection estimates are biased by the omission of correlated traits that have causal effects on fitness, but few valid tests of this exist. Here, we show, using a quantitative genetic framework and six decades of life‐history data on two free‐living populations of great tits Parus major, that selection estimates for egg‐laying date and clutch size are relatively unbiased. Predicted responses to selection based on the Robertson–Price Identity were similar to those based on the multivariate breeder's equation (MVBE), indicating that unmeasured covarying traits were not missing from the analysis. Changing patterns of phenotypic selection on these traits (for laying date, linked to climate change) therefore reflect changing selection on breeding values, and genetic constraints appear not to limit their independent evolution. Quantitative genetic analysis of correlational data from pedigreed populations can be a valuable complement to experimental approaches to help identify whether apparent associations between traits and fitness are biased by missing traits, and to parse the roles of direct versus indirect selection across a range of environments.     

Size‐dependent reproductive success of wild zebrafish Danio rerio in the laboratory

Size‐dependent reproductive success of wild zebrafish Danio rerio was studied under controlled conditions in the laboratory to further understand the influence of spawner body size on reproductive output and egg and larval traits. Three different spawner size categories attained by size‐selective harvesting of the F₁‐offspring of wild D. rerio were established and their reproductive performance compared during a 5 day period. As to be expected, large females spawned more frequently and had significantly greater clutch sizes than small females. Contrary to expectations, small females produced larger eggs when measured as egg diameter with similar amounts of yolk compared to eggs spawned by large spawners. Eggs from small fish, however, suffered from higher egg mortality than the eggs of large individuals. Embryos from small‐sized spawners also hatched later than offspring from eggs laid by large females. Larval standard length (L_S)‐at‐hatch did not differ between the size categories, but the offspring of the large fish had significantly larger area‐at‐hatch and greater yolk‐sac volume indicating better condition. Offspring growth rates were generally similar between offspring from all size categories, but they were significantly higher for offspring spawned by small females in terms of L_S between days 60 and 90 post‐fertilization. Despite temporarily higher growth rates among the small fish offspring, the smaller energy reserves at hatching translated into lower condition later in ontogeny. It appeared that the influence of spawner body size on egg and larval traits was relatively pronounced early in development and seemed to remain in terms of condition, but not in growth, after the onset of exogenous feeding. Further studies are needed to explore the mechanisms behind the differences in offspring quality between large‐ and small‐sized spawners by disentangling size‐dependent maternal and paternal effects on reproductive variables in D. rerio.     

Novel communities from climate change

Climate change is generating novel communities composed of new combinations of species. These result from different degrees of species adaptations to changing biotic and abiotic conditions, and from differential range shifts of species. To determine whether the responses of organisms are determined by particular species traits and how species interactions and community dynamics are likely to be disrupted is a challenge. Here, we focus on two key traits: body size and ecological specialization. We present theoretical expectations and empirical evidence on how climate change affects these traits within communities. We then explore how these traits predispose species to shift or expand their distribution ranges, and associated changes on community size structure, food web organization and dynamics. We identify three major broad changes: (i) Shift in the distribution of body sizes towards smaller sizes, (ii) dominance of generalized interactions and the loss of specialized interactions, and (iii) changes in the balance of strong and weak interaction strengths in the short term. We finally identify two major uncertainties: (i) whether large-bodied species tend to preferentially shift their ranges more than small-bodied ones, and (ii) how interaction strengths will change in the long term and in the case of newly interacting species.     

Forecasted range shifts of arid-land fishes in response to climate change

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according to fish traits. We examined relationships among traits and range shift metrics either singly using univariate linear modeling or combined with multivariate redundancy analysis. We found that trophic and dispersal traits were associated with shifts at the leading and trailing edges, respectively, although projected range shifts were largely unexplained by traits. As expected, piscivores and omnivores with broader diets shifted upslope most at the leading edge while more specialized invertivores exhibited minimal changes. Fishes that were more mobile shifted upslope most at the trailing edge, defying predictions. No traits explained changes in range center or size. Finally, current preference explained multivariate range shifts, as fishes with faster current preferences exhibited smaller multivariate changes. Although range shifts were largely unexplained by traits, more specialized invertivorous fishes with lower dispersal propensity or greater current preference may require the greatest conservation efforts because of their limited capacity to shift ranges under climate change.     

BADGE SIZE,PHENOTYPIC QUALITY,AND REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS IN THE HOUSE SPARROW: A STUDY ON HONEST ADVERTISEMENT

Honest signaling theory suggests that advertising traits must be costly to their bearer; thus, only individuals of high phenotypic quality can exhibit maximal expression of these traits. Males of the sexually dichromatic house sparrow, Passer domesticus, have a black throat patch that functions as a badge of status. I investigated whether badge size honestly shows phenotypic quality. Badge size increases with age and decreases with advancing fledging date in yearling males; thus, badge size was larger in older individuals even though age differences were small. Badge size also increased with physical condition independent of age. These results indicate that badge size functions as an honest signal, possibly because there are costs involved in its production. I also found that males with enlarged badges acquired more nest sites than either control males or males with reduced badges. However, males with enlarged badges possessing a nest site raised fewer fledglings per year than did males with reduced badges, suggesting that cheating has no selective benefit. Further studies that accurately measure the energy expenditure allocated to badge production and that quantify additional fitness components are needed to clarify how reliable badges are maintained.