Development and Internal Validation of a Predictive Model Including Pulse Oximetry for Hospitalization of Under-Five Children in Bangladesh

Background

The reduction in the deaths of millions of children who die from infectious diseases requires early initiation of treatment and improved access to care available in health facilities. A major challenge is the lack of objective evidence to guide front line health workers in the community to recognize critical illness in children earlier in their course.

Methods

We undertook a prospective observational study of children less than 5 years of age presenting at the outpatient or emergency department of a rural tertiary care hospital between October 2012 and April 2013. Study physicians collected clinical signs and symptoms from the facility records, and with a mobile application performed recordings of oxygen saturation, heart rate and respiratory rate. Facility physicians decided the need for hospital admission without knowledge of the oxygen saturation. Multiple logistic predictive models were tested.

Findings

Twenty-five percent of the 3374 assessed children, with a median (interquartile range) age of 1.02 (0.42–2.24), were admitted to hospital. We were unable to contact 20% of subjects after their visit. A logistic regression model using continuous oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, temperature and age combined with dichotomous signs of chest indrawing, lethargy, irritability and symptoms of cough, diarrhea and fast or difficult breathing predicted admission to hospital with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval -CI: 0.87 to 0.90). At a risk threshold of 25% for admission, the sensitivity was 77% (95% CI: 74% to 80%), specificity was 87% (95% CI: 86% to 88%), positive predictive value was 70% (95% CI: 67% to 73%) and negative predictive value was 91% (95% CI: 90% to 92%).

Conclusion

A model using oxygen saturation, respiratory rate and temperature in combination with readily obtained clinical signs and symptoms predicted the need for hospitalization of critically ill children. External validation of this model in a community setting will be required before adoption into clinical practice.     

Development and Internal Validation of a Predictive Model for Individual Cancer Risk Assessment for Thyroid Nodules

Objective: The objective of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model for the assessment of the individual risk of malignancy of thyroid nodules based on clinical, ultrasound, and analytic variables.Methods: A retrospective case-control study was carried out with 542 patients whose thyroid nodules were analyzed at our endocrinology department between 2013 and 2018 while undergoing treatment for thyroidectomy. Starting with a multivariate logistic regression analysis, which included clinical, analytic, and ultrasound variables, a predictive model for thyroid cancer (TC) risk was devised. This was then subjected to a cross-validation process, using resampling techniques.Results: In the final model, the independent predictors of the risk of malignancy were: being male, age of the extremes, family history of TC, thyroid-stimulating hormone level >4.7 μU/L, presence of autoimmune thyroiditis, solid consistency, hypoechogenicity, irregular or microlobed borders, nodules that are taller than they are wide, microcalcifications, and suspicious adenopathy. With a cut-off point of 50% probability of thyroid cancer, the predictive model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.925 (95% confidence interval 0.898 to 0.952). Finally, using the 10-fold cross-validation method, the accuracy of the model was found to be 88.46%, with a kappa correlation coefficient of 0.62.Conclusion: A predictive model for the individual risk of malignancy of thyroid nodules was developed and validated using clinical, analytic, and ultrasound variables. An online calculator was developed from this model to be used by clinicians to improve decision-making in patients with thyroid nodules.     

Development and Validation of a Homology Model of Human Cathepsin H Including the Mini-Chain

Cathepsin H is involved in intracellular protein degradation and is implicated in a variety of physiological processes such as proenzyme activation, enzyme inactivation, hormone maturation, tissue remodeling, and bone matrix resorption. A model of the tertiary structure of the human lysosomal cysteine protease cathepsin H was constructed. The protein structure was built from its amino acid sequence and its homology to papain, actinidin, and cathepsin L for which crystallographic co-ordinates are available. The model was generated using the COMPOSER module of SYBYL.The position and interaction behavior of the so called mini-chain, the octapeptide EPQNCSAT, to the active-site cleft of cathepsin H could be determined by docking studies. Refinement was achieved through interactive visual and algorithmic analysis and minimization with the TRIPOS force field. The model was found to correlate with observed empirical data regarding ligand specificity. The model defines possible steric, hydrophobic, and electrostatic interactions. We anticipate that the model will serve as a tool to understand substrate specificity and may be used for the development of new specific ligands.Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s008940050117     

Clinical Signs of Radiologic Pneumonia in Under-Five Hypokalemic Diarrheal Children Admitted to an Urban Hospital in Bangladesh

Background

Clinical signs of pneumonia are often veiled in under-five diarrheal children presenting with hypokalemia, making clinical diagnosis of pneumonia very difficult in such population. However, there is no published report that describes the influences of hypokalemia on the clinical signs of pneumonia in diarrheal children. Our objective was to assess the influences of hypokalemia, and their outcome in such children.

Methods

We prospectively enrolled all under-five diarrheal children (n = 180) admitted to the Special Care Ward of the Dhaka Hospital of icddr,b from September-December 2007 with radiological pneumonia who also had their serum potassium estimated. We compared the clinical features and outcome of the diarrheal children having pneumonia with (cases = 55) and without hypokalemia (controls = 125).

Results

The case-fatality among the cases was 2 times higher compared to the controls, but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.202). In logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders such as age of the patient, clinical dehydration, severe wasting, abnormally sleepy, lower chest wall in-drawing, nasal flaring and inability to drink on admission, under-five diarrheal children with pneumonia who presented with nutritional edema had 3 times more risk to have hypokalemia compared to those without nutritional edema (OR = 2.76, 95% CI = 1.01–7.51) and these hypokalemic children were 64% less likely to present with fast breathing (OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.17–0.74).

Conclusion and significance

The results of our analysis are simple but may have great public health implications and underscore the importance of diligent assessment for pneumonia in under-five diarrheal children having risk of hypokalemia as in children with nutritional edema even in absence of fast breathing, a useful sign of pneumonia. This may help for early initiation of first dose of parental antibiotics along with potassium supplementation before referral to tertiary hospitals by health workers to combat probability of deaths in such population especially in resource limited settings.     

Respiratory Viruses Associated Hospitalization among Children Aged <5 Years in Bangladesh: 2010-2014

Background

We combined hospital-based surveillance and health utilization survey data to estimate the incidence of respiratory viral infections associated hospitalization among children aged < 5 years in Bangladesh.

Methods

Surveillance physicians collected respiratory specimens from children aged <5 years hospitalized with respiratory illness and residing in the primary hospital catchment areas. We tested respiratory specimens for respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumovirus, influenza, adenovirus and rhinoviruses using rRT-PCR. During 2013, we conducted a health utilization survey in the primary catchment areas of the hospitals to determine the proportion of all hospitalizations for respiratory illness among children aged <5 years at the surveillance hospitals during the preceding 12 months. We estimated the respiratory virus-specific incidence of hospitalization by dividing the estimated number of hospitalized children with a laboratory confirmed infection with a respiratory virus by the population aged <5 years of the catchment areas and adjusted for the proportion of children who were hospitalized at the surveillance hospitals.

Results

We estimated that the annual incidence per 1000 children (95% CI) of all cause associated respiratory hospitalization was 11.5 (10–12). The incidences per 1000 children (95% CI) per year for respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus and influenza infections were 3(2–3), 0.5(0.4–0.8), 0.4 (0.3–0.6), 0.4 (0.3–0.6), and 0.4 (0.3–0.6) respectively. The incidences per 1000 children (95%CI) of rhinovirus-associated infections among hospitalized children were 5 (3–7), 2 (1–3), 1 (0.6–2), and 3 (2–4) in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Conclusion

Our data suggest that respiratory viruses are associated with a substantial burden of hospitalization in children aged <5 years in Bangladesh.     

External Validation of a Predictive Model for Acute Pancreatitis Risk in Patients with Severe Hypertriglyceridemia

Objective: We previously developed a predictive model to assess the risk of developing acute pancreatitis (AP) in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia (HTG). In this study, we aimed to externally validate this model.Methods: The validation cohort included cross-sectional data between 2013 and 2017. Adult patients (≥18 years old) with triglyceride levels ≥1,000 mg/dL were identified. Based on our previous 4-factor predictive model (age, triglyceride &lsqb;TG], excessive alcohol use, and gallstone disease), we estimated the probability of developing AP. Model performance was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).Results: In comparison to the original cohort, patients in the validation cohort had more prevalent acute pancreatitis (16.2% versus 9.2%; P<.001) and gallstone disease (7.5% versus 2.1%; P<.001). Other characteristics were comparable and not statistically significant. The AUROCs were almost identical: 0.8337 versus 0.8336 in the validation and the original cohorts, respectively. In univariable analyses, the highest increase in odds of AP was associated with HTG, followed by gallstones, excessive alcohol use, and younger age.Conclusion: This study externally validates the 4-factor predictive model to estimate the risk of AP in adult patients with severe HTG (TG ≥1,000 mg/dL). Younger age was confirmed to place patients at high risk of AP. The clinical risk categories suggested in this study may be useful to guide treatment options.Abbreviations: AP = acute pancreatitis; ASCVD = atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; AUROC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; FRAX = fracture risk assessment tool; HTG = hypertriglyceridemia; OR = odds ratio; TG = triglyceride level     

Towards Predictive Computational Models of Oncolytic Virus Therapy: Basis for Experimental Validation and Model Selection

Oncolytic viruses are viruses that specifically infect cancer cells and kill them, while leaving healthy cells largely intact. Their ability to spread through the tumor makes them an attractive therapy approach. While promising results have been observed in clinical trials, solid success remains elusive since we lack understanding of the basic principles that govern the dynamical interactions between the virus and the cancer. In this respect, computational models can help experimental research at optimizing treatment regimes. Although preliminary mathematical work has been performed, this suffers from the fact that individual models are largely arbitrary and based on biologically uncertain assumptions. Here, we present a general framework to study the dynamics of oncolytic viruses that is independent of uncertain and arbitrary mathematical formulations. We find two categories of dynamics, depending on the assumptions about spatial constraints that govern that spread of the virus from cell to cell. If infected cells are mixed among uninfected cells, there exists a viral replication rate threshold beyond which tumor control is the only outcome. On the other hand, if infected cells are clustered together (e.g. in a solid tumor), then we observe more complicated dynamics in which the outcome of therapy might go either way, depending on the initial number of cells and viruses. We fit our models to previously published experimental data and discuss aspects of model validation, selection, and experimental design. This framework can be used as a basis for model selection and validation in the context of future, more detailed experimental studies. It can further serve as the basis for future, more complex models that take into account other clinically relevant factors such as immune responses.     

Beyond Critical Congenital Heart Disease: Newborn Screening Using Pulse Oximetry for Neonatal Sepsis and Respiratory Diseases in a Middle-Income Country

Background

Studies on pulse oximetry screening for neonatal sepsis and respiratory disease in a middle-income country are lacking. Newborn screening for critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) using pulse oximetry is an effective and life-saving strategy in developed countries. While most studies have reported false-positive results during CCHD screening, they have not elaborated on the detected disease types. We studied the effectiveness and outcomes of pulse oximetry newborn screening for non-cardiac hypoxemic diseases such as neonatal sepsis, respiratory diseases, and CCHD in a middle-income country.

Methods and Findings

In a pilot study performed at the University Malaya Medical Centre (UMMC), Malaysia, all apparently healthy term newborns, delivered at UMMC were screened pre-discharge using pulse oximetry. Echocardiography was performed for newborns that had positive screening results on two separate occasions, 1-h apart. Newborns with normal echocardiograms were evaluated and treated for other non-cardiac diseases. Fifteen of 5247 term newborns had positive screening results. The median age at screening was 20 h. Thirteen newborns (0.24%) had significant non-cardiac diseases: sepsis (n = 2) and respiratory diseases (n = 11) that required hospitalization and treatment. The remaining two newborns with normal antenatal ultrasonograms had positive screening test and confirmed to have CCHD. Another 18 newborns with negative screening test were later admitted for treatment of sepsis (n = 16) and penumonia (n = 2). All newborns were treated and alive at the end of the study. The sensitivity and specificity of pulse oximetry screening for non-cardiac diseases were 42% and 99.9% respectively, and 100% and 99.7% for CCHD, respectively.

Conclusions

Routine pulse oximetry screening test was effective in identifying newborns with CCHD and other hypoxemia illnesses, which may led to potential life-threatening condition. This study showed that the expanded use of pulse oximetry has immediate implications for low- and middle-income countries contemplating strategies to reduce neonatal mortality and morbidity.

Abbreviations

ASD, atrial septal defect; CCHD, critical congenital heart disease; CRP, C-reactive protein; CXR, chest radiographs; NDI, neurodevelopment impairment; PPHN, persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn; PDA, patent ductus arteriosus; PFO, patent foramen ovale; TGA, transposition of great artery; TTN, transient tachypnoea of the newborn; VSD, ventricular septal defect.     

Readmissions and Death after ICU Discharge: Development and Validation of Two Predictive Models

Introduction

Early discharge from the ICU is desirable because it shortens time in the ICU and reduces care costs, but can also increase the likelihood of ICU readmission and post-discharge unanticipated death if patients are discharged before they are stable. We postulated that, using eICU® Research Institute (eRI) data from >400 ICUs, we could develop robust models predictive of post-discharge death and readmission that may be incorporated into future clinical information systems (CIS) to assist ICU discharge planning.

Methods

Retrospective, multi-center, exploratory cohort study of ICU survivors within the eRI database between 1/1/2007 and 3/31/2011. Exclusion criteria: DNR or care limitations at ICU discharge and discharge to location external to hospital. Patients were randomized (2∶1) to development and validation cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on a broad range of variables including: patient demographics, ICU admission diagnosis, admission severity of illness, laboratory values and physiologic variables present during the last 24 hours of the ICU stay. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. The primary outcomes were the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (auROC) in the validation cohorts for the models predicting readmission and death within 48 hours of ICU discharge.

Results

469,976 and 234,987 patients representing 219 hospitals were in the development and validation cohorts. Early ICU readmission and death was experienced by 2.54% and 0.92% of all patients, respectively. The relationship between predictors and outcomes (death vs readmission) differed, justifying the need for separate models. The models for early readmission and death produced auROCs of 0.71 and 0.92, respectively. Both models calibrated well across risk groups.

Conclusions

Our models for death and readmission after ICU discharge showed good to excellent discrimination and good calibration. Although prospective validation is warranted, we speculate that these models may have value in assisting clinicians with ICU discharge planning.     

Combined Heart Rate Variability and Pulse Oximetry Biofeedback for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Preliminary Findings

The purpose of this study was to examine the feasibility of an intervention that included heart rate variability (HRV) biofeedback and walking with pulse oximetry feedback to improve functioning and quality of life for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Twenty patients with COPD participated in 5 weekly sessions of HRV biofeedback and 4 weekly sessions of walking practice with oximetry feedback, with instructions for daily home practice. Primary outcomes measures were the distance walked in 6 min (6MWD) and overall quality of life, as measured by the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ). Secondary outcomes included measures of self-efficacy, self-reported disability, anxiety, depression, dyspnea before and after the 6MWD, and HRV at the frequency of respiration during spontaneous and paced breathing. After 10 weeks of training, participants showed statistically and clinically significant improvements in 6MWD and quality of life. Significant changes were also seen in self-efficacy, disability, dyspnea before and after the 6MWD, and HRV amplitude during spontaneous breathing. We conclude that our intervention is feasible for patients with COPD and that further research using a randomized controlled design is warranted.     

Correction to: Development and Validation of Arc Nanobodies: New Tools for Probing Arc Dynamics and Function

Neurochemical Research -     

Hair Zinc: an Index for Zinc Status in Under-Five Children from Low-Income Communities in Kanam Area of North-Central Nigeria

Nutritional deficiencies of trace elements are among the top ten causes of death in Sub Saharan Africa. In Kanam Local Government Area of Nigeria, the problem is compounded by high levels of poverty and illiteracy. Abnormally low hair zinc levels are important, sensitive diagnostic biochemical indices of Zinc deficiency. The purpose of this study is to assess the zinc status of children less than 5 years in Kanam local government area, north-central Nigeria, by measuring the zinc level in hair samples collected from 44 under-5 children across the area. A household survey was made to assess the pattern and frequency of consumption of zinc-rich foods which was done by means of questionnaire. Hair samples were analysed for zinc content by the inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrophotometry (ICP-MS). The data were analysed statistically using the Student’s t test, z test, and Pearson correlation, while questionnaire-captured data were analysed by simple arithmetic. The results of the analyses showed that the average hair zinc level was 74.35 ± 48.05 μg/g. This was below the normal range of 130–140 μg/g, for children less than 5 years. Based on the results, 86.36% have hair zinc level below the lower limit of the normal range of 130 μg/g. Between the gender, boys have higher hair zinc content than girls. Data from the questionnaire showed that 53.45% of the population studied have poor/inadequate intake of zinc-rich foods of animal origin, a dietary behaviour reported to predispose to micronutrient deficiency, including zinc.     

Pulse Oximetry: A Non-Invasive,Novel Marker for the Quality of Chest Compressions in Porcine Models of Cardiac Arrest

Objective

Pulse oximetry, which noninvasively detects the blood flow of peripheral tissue, has achieved widespread clinical use. We have noticed that the better the quality of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), the better the appearance of pulse oximetry plethysmographic waveform (POP). We investigated whether the area under the curve (AUC) and/or the amplitude (Amp) of POP could be used to monitor the quality of CPR.

Design

Prospective, randomized controlled study.

Setting

Animal experimental center in Peking Union Medical Collage Hospital, Beijing, China.

Subjects

Healthy 3-month-old male domestic swine.

Interventions

34 local pigs were enrolled in this study. After 4 minutes of untreated ventricular fibrillation, animals were randomly assigned into two resuscitation groups: a “low quality” group (with a compression depth of 3cm) and a “high quality” group (with a depth of 5cm). All treatments between the two groups were identical except for the depth of chest compressions. Hemodynamic parameters [coronary perfusion pressure (CPP), partial pressure of end-tidal carbon dioxide (P_ETCO₂)] as well as AUC and Amp of POP were all collected and analyzed.

Measurements and Findings

There were statistical differences between the “high quality” group and the “low quality” group in AUC, Amp, CPP and P_ETCO₂ during CPR (P<0.05). AUC, Amp and CPP were positively correlated with P_ETCO₂, respectively (P<0.01). There was no statistical difference between the heart rate calculated according to the POP (F_CPR) and the frequency of mechanical CPR at the 3^rd minute of CPR. The F _CPR was lower than the frequency of mechanical CPR at the 6^th and the 9^th minute of CPR.

Conclusions

Both the AUC and Amp of POP correlated well with CPP and P_ETCO₂ in animal models. The frequency of POP closely matched the CPR heart rate. AUC and Amp of POP might be potential noninvasive quality monitoring markers for CPR.