Science vs Conspiracy: Collective Narratives in the Age of Misinformation

The large availability of user provided contents on online social media facilitates people aggregation around shared beliefs, interests, worldviews and narratives. In spite of the enthusiastic rhetoric about the so called collective intelligence unsubstantiated rumors and conspiracy theories—e.g., chemtrails, reptilians or the Illuminati—are pervasive in online social networks (OSN). In this work we study, on a sample of 1.2 million of individuals, how information related to very distinct narratives—i.e. main stream scientific and conspiracy news—are consumed and shape communities on Facebook. Our results show that polarized communities emerge around distinct types of contents and usual consumers of conspiracy news result to be more focused and self-contained on their specific contents. To test potential biases induced by the continued exposure to unsubstantiated rumors on users’ content selection, we conclude our analysis measuring how users respond to 4,709 troll information—i.e. parodistic and sarcastic imitation of conspiracy theories. We find that 77.92% of likes and 80.86% of comments are from users usually interacting with conspiracy stories.     

Trend of Narratives in the Age of Misinformation

Social media enabled a direct path from producer to consumer of contents changing the way users get informed, debate, and shape their worldviews. Such a disintermediation might weaken consensus on social relevant issues in favor of rumors, mistrust, or conspiracy thinking—e.g., chem-trails inducing global warming, the link between vaccines and autism, or the New World Order conspiracy. Previous studies pointed out that consumers of conspiracy-like content are likely to aggregate in homophile clusters—i.e., echo-chambers. Along this path we study, by means of a thorough quantitative analysis, how different topics are consumed inside the conspiracy echo-chamber in the Italian Facebook. Through a semi-automatic topic extraction strategy, we show that the most consumed contents semantically refer to four specific categories: environment, diet, health, and geopolitics. We find similar consumption patterns by comparing users activity (likes and comments) on posts belonging to these different semantic categories. Finally, we model users mobility across the distinct topics finding that the more a user is active, the more he is likely to span on all categories. Once inside a conspiracy narrative users tend to embrace the overall corpus.     

The Invisible Prevalence of Citizen Science in Global Research: Migratory Birds and Climate Change

Citizen science is a research practice that relies on public contributions of data. The strong recognition of its educational value combined with the need for novel methods to handle subsequent large and complex data sets raises the question: Is citizen science effective at science? A quantitative assessment of the contributions of citizen science for its core purpose – scientific research – is lacking. We examined the contribution of citizen science to a review paper by ornithologists in which they formulated ten central claims about the impact of climate change on avian migration. Citizen science was never explicitly mentioned in the review article. For each of the claims, these ornithologists scored their opinions about the amount of research effort invested in each claim and how strongly the claim was supported by evidence. This allowed us to also determine whether their trust in claims was, unwittingly or not, related to the degree to which the claims relied primarily on data generated by citizen scientists. We found that papers based on citizen science constituted between 24 and 77% of the references backing each claim, with no evidence of a mistrust of claims that relied heavily on citizen-science data. We reveal that many of these papers may not easily be recognized as drawing upon volunteer contributions, as the search terms “citizen science” and “volunteer” would have overlooked the majority of the studies that back the ten claims about birds and climate change. Our results suggest that the significance of citizen science to global research, an endeavor that is reliant on long-term information at large spatial scales, might be far greater than is readily perceived. To better understand and track the contributions of citizen science in the future, we urge researchers to use the keyword “citizen science” in papers that draw on efforts of non-professionals.     

Perceptual Biases in Relation to Paranormal and Conspiracy Beliefs

Previous studies have shown that one’s prior beliefs have a strong effect on perceptual decision-making and attentional processing. The present study extends these findings by investigating how individual differences in paranormal and conspiracy beliefs are related to perceptual and attentional biases. Two field studies were conducted in which visitors of a paranormal conducted a perceptual decision making task (i.e. the face / house categorization task; Experiment 1) or a visual attention task (i.e. the global / local processing task; Experiment 2). In the first experiment it was found that skeptics compared to believers more often incorrectly categorized ambiguous face stimuli as representing a house, indicating that disbelief rather than belief in the paranormal is driving the bias observed for the categorization of ambiguous stimuli. In the second experiment, it was found that skeptics showed a classical ‘global-to-local’ interference effect, whereas believers in conspiracy theories were characterized by a stronger ‘local-to-global interference effect’. The present study shows that individual differences in paranormal and conspiracy beliefs are associated with perceptual and attentional biases, thereby extending the growing body of work in this field indicating effects of cultural learning on basic perceptual processes.     

Emotional Dynamics in the Age of Misinformation

According to the World Economic Forum, the diffusion of unsubstantiated rumors on online social media is one of the main threats for our society. The disintermediated paradigm of content production and consumption on online social media might foster the formation of homogeneous communities (echo-chambers) around specific worldviews. Such a scenario has been shown to be a vivid environment for the diffusion of false claim. Not rarely, viral phenomena trigger naive (and funny) social responses—e.g., the recent case of Jade Helm 15 where a simple military exercise turned out to be perceived as the beginning of the civil war in the US. In this work, we address the emotional dynamics of collective debates around distinct kinds of information—i.e., science and conspiracy news—and inside and across their respective polarized communities. We find that for both kinds of content the longer the discussion the more the negativity of the sentiment. We show that comments on conspiracy posts tend to be more negative than on science posts. However, the more the engagement of users, the more they tend to negative commenting (both on science and conspiracy). Finally, zooming in at the interaction among polarized communities, we find a general negative pattern. As the number of comments increases—i.e., the discussion becomes longer—the sentiment of the post is more and more negative.     

A Mixture of “Cheats” and “Co-Operators” Can Enable Maximal Group Benefit

Is a group best off if everyone co-operates? Theory often considers this to be so (e.g. the “conspiracy of doves”), this understanding underpinning social and economic policy. We observe, however, that after competition between “cheat” and “co-operator” strains of yeast, population fitness is maximized under co-existence. To address whether this might just be a peculiarity of our experimental system or a result with broader applicability, we assemble, benchmark, dissect, and test a systems model. This reveals the conditions necessary to recover the unexpected result. These are 3-fold: (a) that resources are used inefficiently when they are abundant, (b) that the amount of co-operation needed cannot be accurately assessed, and (c) the population is structured, such that co-operators receive more of the resource than the cheats. Relaxing any of the assumptions can lead to population fitness being maximized when cheats are absent, which we experimentally demonstrate. These three conditions will often be relevant, and hence in order to understand the trajectory of social interactions, understanding the dynamics of the efficiency of resource utilization and accuracy of information will be necessary.     

The Social Value Requirement Reconsidered

It is widely assumed that it is ethical to conduct research with human subjects only if the research has social value. There are two standard arguments for this view. The allocation argument claims that public funds should not be devoted to research that lacks social value. The exploitation avoidance argument claims that subjects are exploited if research has no social value. The primary purpose of this article is to argue that these arguments do not succeed. The allocation argument has little relevance to commercial research. Social value is not necessary to avoid exploitation if subjects benefit from participation. Although the standard arguments for a social value requirement do not succeed, that view might be justified in a different way. It might be justified by appeal to the importance of social trust or the integrity of physician investigators. It is possible but doubtful that these arguments succeed.     

Narratives of success among Irish and African Caribbean migrants

This paper compares the narratives of two men in midlife who migrated to the UK from Ireland and from the Caribbean as children, in the middle of the last century. We examine how success is narrated over the life course to show how migrants’ positioning of themselves differs from the ways in which they are positioned by outsiders, including in policy and public discourse. We conclude that while outsider narratives often polarise success and failure, insider understandings of success are dynamic and culturally and historically situated.     

Dimensionless parameter predicts bacterial prodrug success

Understanding mechanisms of antibiotic failure is foundational to combating the growing threat of multidrug‐resistant bacteria. Prodrugs—which are converted into a pharmacologically active compound after administration—represent a growing class of therapeutics for treating bacterial infections but are understudied in the context of antibiotic failure. We hypothesize that strategies that rely on pathogen‐specific pathways for prodrug conversion are susceptible to competing rates of prodrug activation and bacterial replication, which could lead to treatment escape and failure. Here, we construct a mathematical model of prodrug kinetics to predict rate‐dependent conditions under which bacteria escape prodrug treatment. From this model, we derive a dimensionless parameter we call the Bacterial Advantage Heuristic (BAH) that predicts the transition between prodrug escape and successful treatment across a range of time scales (1–10⁴ h), bacterial carrying capacities (5 × 10⁴–10⁵ CFU/µl), and Michaelis constants (K_M  = 0.747–7.47 mM). To verify these predictions in vitro, we use two models of bacteria‐prodrug competition: (i) an antimicrobial peptide hairpin that is enzymatically activated by bacterial surface proteases and (ii) a thiomaltose‐conjugated trimethoprim that is internalized by bacterial maltodextrin transporters and hydrolyzed by free thiols. We observe that prodrug failure occurs at BAH values above the same critical threshold predicted by the model. Furthermore, we demonstrate two examples of how failing prodrugs can be rescued by decreasing the BAH below the critical threshold via (i) substrate design and (ii) nutrient control. We envision such dimensionless parameters serving as supportive pharmacokinetic quantities that guide the design and administration of prodrug therapeutics.     

Once upon a time in the West? Stories of migration and modernity from Kerala, South India

This article explores how members of an ex-untouchable, 'backward' community of South India – the Izhavas of Kerala – represent and make sense of their entanglements within 'modernity'. Izhava narratives suggest ambivalence: while failure stories remain individualized, narrated in terms of bad luck or others' cheating, success stories are presented as exemplars of a twentieth-century global master narrative of progress. We note many correspondences between this ex-untouchable community's optimistic master narrative and another powerful and pervasive meta-narrative – the global story of modernity as development, promoted by state government, reform movements, and development theorists alike. Life-history narratives forcibly bring us – European interlocutors – into the same space as the tale-tellers, speak of encounters between Indians and Europeans, and urge us to recognize that we live in 'one world'. Malayalis stake claims for equal participation in modernity's projects even as they point out ways in which coevalness is denied. This prompts us to suggest that narratives of modernity in India and the UK should occupy the same analytical space, contrary to moves to theorize multiple modernities. With our Malayali respondents, we are participating in a confabulation/confabrication of a shared story which appears to be one about the nature of global capitalism. Modernity produces dream and disillusionment, promising progress to all while delivering to a few. In its seemingly endless capacity for self-regeneration and reinvention it is, as a phenomenon in global history, far from over. Even as theorists try to write it off as a moment past or a project failed, it still holds out its promises and provides a structuring framework for contemporary life-stories.     

An assessment of the use of chimpanzees in hepatitis C research past, present and future: 2. Alternative replacement methods

The use of chimpanzees in hepatitis C virus (HCV) research was examined in the report associated with this paper (1: Validity of the chimpanzee model), in which it was concluded that claims of past necessity of chimpanzee use were exaggerated, and that claims of current and future indispensability were unjustifiable. Furthermore, given the serious scientific and ethical issues surrounding chimpanzee experimentation, it was proposed that it must now be considered redundant--particularly in light of the demonstrable contribution of alternative methods to past and current scientific progress, and the future promise that these methods hold. This paper builds on this evidence, by examining the development of alternative approaches to the investigation of HCV, and by reviewing examples of how these methods have contributed, and are continuing to contribute substantially, to progress in this field. It augments the argument against chimpanzee use by demonstrating the comprehensive nature of these methods and the valuable data they deliver. The entire life-cycle of HCV can now be investigated in a human (and much more relevant) context, without recourse to chimpanzee use. This also includes the testing of new therapies and vaccines. Consequently, there is no sound argument against the changes in public policy that propose a move away from chimpanzee use in US laboratories.     

The Phylogeny of Little Red Riding Hood

Researchers have long been fascinated by the strong continuities evident in the oral traditions associated with different cultures. According to the ‘historic-geographic’ school, it is possible to classify similar tales into “international types” and trace them back to their original archetypes. However, critics argue that folktale traditions are fundamentally fluid, and that most international types are artificial constructs. Here, these issues are addressed using phylogenetic methods that were originally developed to reconstruct evolutionary relationships among biological species, and which have been recently applied to a range of cultural phenomena. The study focuses on one of the most debated international types in the literature: ATU 333, ‘Little Red Riding Hood’. A number of variants of ATU 333 have been recorded in European oral traditions, and it has been suggested that the group may include tales from other regions, including Africa and East Asia. However, in many of these cases, it is difficult to differentiate ATU 333 from another widespread international folktale, ATU 123, ‘The Wolf and the Kids’. To shed more light on these relationships, data on 58 folktales were analysed using cladistic, Bayesian and phylogenetic network-based methods. The results demonstrate that, contrary to the claims made by critics of the historic-geographic approach, it is possible to identify ATU 333 and ATU 123 as distinct international types. They further suggest that most of the African tales can be classified as variants of ATU 123, while the East Asian tales probably evolved by blending together elements of both ATU 333 and ATU 123. These findings demonstrate that phylogenetic methods provide a powerful set of tools for testing hypotheses about cross-cultural relationships among folktales, and point towards exciting new directions for research into the transmission and evolution of oral narratives.     

Can immunological principles and cross-disciplinary science illuminate the path to vaccines for HIV and other global health challenges?

Vaccines are one of the most impactful and cost-effective public health measures of the twentieth century. However, there remain great unmet needs to develop vaccines for globally burdensome infectious diseases and to allow more timely responses to emerging infectious disease threats. Recent advances in the understanding of immunological principles operative not just in model systems but in humans in concert with the development and application of powerful new tools for profiling human immune responses, in our understanding of pathogen variation and evolution, and in the elucidation of the structural aspects of antibody–pathogen interactions, have illuminated pathways by which these unmet needs might be addressed. Using these advances as foundation, we herein present a conceptual framework by which the discovery, development and iterative improvement of effective vaccines for HIV, malaria and other globally important infectious diseases might be accelerated.     

Mass-vaccination programmes and the value of respect for autonomy

Respect for autonomy is problematic in relation to public health programmes such as vaccination, as the success of such programmes depends on widespread compliance. European countries have different policies for dealing with objectors to vaccination programmes. In some countries compliance is compulsory, while in others objectors are exempted or allowed to enter the programme under specific conditions.
In this paper I argue that the objectors should not be treated as a homogenous group as is done in the above-mentioned policies. Objectors have different arguments for not participating in vaccination programmes. Considering the value of respect for autonomy, some but not all of these arguments need to be accommodated by authorities.
The concept of 'narrative autonomy' provides criteria to distinguish between tenable and untenable claims to the right to refuse vaccination. Narrative autonomy understands autonomy as essentially linked to identity, as this provides the moral framework with which we assess our first-order preferences.
The above-mentioned concept of autonomy is derived from the concept of narrative identity as described by Marya Schechtman. She suggests that the application of the Articulation Constraint and the Reality Constraint enables us to establish the validity of personal narratives. Additionally, form and content features of identity, as proposed by Anthony Laden, will be used as criteria to establish the compatibility of the defectors' arguments with shared scientific and political values. Such compatibility is essential to accommodate respect for autonomy in the context of public health.     

Nutritional improvements in plants: time to bite on biofortified foods

Modern breeding, molecular genetic and biotechnology studies frequently describe changes in plant metabolism to improve nutritional content; however, this is often where the process of assessing biofortification ends. Ideally, these modified plants need to be used in controlled animal and human feeding studies to assess nutritional impact. Such bioavailability studies are crucial if any claims are to be made regarding health benefits and might be an important component in public acceptance of biofortified foods.     

Clinical analysis of 100 medicolegal cases.

OBJECTIVE--To find the reasons for legal claims against hospital doctors. DESIGN--Prospective analysis of requests for medical opinion submitted by solicitors during 1984-93 on legal claims against hospital doctors. SUBJECTS--100 successive cases: 98 from the United Kingdom and two from the Republic of Ireland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Principal underlying causes of claims. RESULTS--In 44 cases there was no serious clinical error. Of the 56 cases of clinical fault, seven were a failure of communication by doctors, 15 were an isolated error in otherwise good clinical management, 21 were errors that might not have occurred with better control of clinical practice (doctors exceeding their competence, poor clinical judgment, and poor teamwork), and 13 were major errors due to carelessness or incompetence. In 34 cases there was evidence of clinical fault that might escape clinical audit and medicolegal processes. Most of these legal claims have been or are likely to be withdrawn: only five plaintiffs have settled out of court, and 11 are pursuing their actions. CONCLUSIONS--To reduce the incidence of errors, hospital doctors should consult colleagues about difficult cases and specialists should maintain a broad interest in disease. The NHS clinical complaints procedure should be extended to cover potential claims, and serious cases should be subject to independent external assessment by experienced consultants.     

Resilience to Leaking — Dynamic Systems Modeling of Information Security

Leaking of confidential material is a major threat to information security within organizations and to society as a whole. This insight has gained traction in the political realm since the activities of Wikileaks, which hopes to attack ‘unjust’ systems or ‘conspiracies’. Eventually, such threats to information security rely on a biologistic argument on the benefits and drawbacks that uncontrolled leaking might pose for ‘just’ and ‘unjust’ entities. Such biological metaphors are almost exclusively based on the economic advantage of participants. Here, I introduce a mathematical model of the complex dynamics implied by leaking. The complex interactions of adversaries are modeled by coupled logistic equations including network effects of econo-communication networks. The modeling shows, that there might arise situations where the leaking envisioned and encouraged by Wikileaks and the like can strengthen the defending entity (the ‘conspiracy’). In particular, the only severe impact leaking can have on an organization seems to originate in the exploitation of leaks by another entity the organization competes with. Therefore, the model suggests that leaks can be used as a `tactical mean’ in direct adversary relations, but do not necessarily increase public benefit and societal immunization to ‘conspiracies’. Furthermore, within the model the exploitation of the (open) competition between entities seems to be a more promising approach to control malicious organizations : divide-et-impera policies triumph here.