Spatial Models of Northern Bobwhite Populations for Conservation Planning

Abstract: Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.     

Estimating the stocking potential of fish in impoundments by modelling supply and steady‐state demand

1. Fish stocking is an increasingly common management tool for freshwater and marine environments and is often used to create and maintain fisheries in closed waters. The densities at which fish are stocked can have a large impact on a stocking programme’s success and sustainability. Stocking densities in impoundment sport‐fisheries, for example, are often based on social or practical factors, and ecologically based stocking models are needed to assist the selection of stocking densities that are appropriate for the environment. 2. In this study, stocking density is calculated with a numerical model that balances the supply of prey production with the energetic demand of stocked fish. The model aims to deliver outcomes over a range of potential management objectives, by providing specific consumption scenarios that represent the trade‐off between population abundance and individual body size in stocked fisheries. 3. The model uses a steady‐state population approach to calculate stocking density, which optimises population consumption by maintaining a consistent biomass distribution and encourages sustainable stocking by considering the energetic needs of all cohorts. Carrying capacity is represented by the steady‐state stocking density under a minimum consumption scenario (when fish meet only their minimum energetic needs). The comparison between a desired consumption rate and the existing level of production is used to assess the status or ‘health’ of the existing population and is used to determine whether stocking can occur and whether stocking densities can be sustainably increased. The probability of incorrectly assuming populations are achieving a given consumption level is also estimated, which is an ideal approach for interpreting multiple probability distributions. 4. A Monte‐Carlo analysis of uncertainty was used to provide a probability distribution of stocking density of Australian bass (Macquaria novemaculeata) in three Australian impoundments under various seasonal and consumption scenarios. The likely consumption rates of the existing populations were determined using historical stocking densities, which showed that the three populations were of reasonable health, although one impoundment may be overstocked. The steady‐state stocking densities depended on the desired consumption rate, and there was an eightfold difference in the stocking density aimed at providing large ‘trophy’ fish and the density required to reach carrying capacity. 5. Model outputs of existing abundance and biomass density agreed with empirical estimates of abundance and relative density in these impoundments, which provides support to the model’s accuracy. This supply–demand approach to estimating the range of appropriate stocking densities shows promise as a decision‐support tool for stocked impoundments and other closed fisheries.     

Fort Peck paddlefish population survival and abundance in the Missouri River

Excessive fishing pressure can induce population declines or complete collapse of fisheries. Unless commercial and recreational fisheries for K-selected fishes, or those with slow growth and late maturation, are carefully managed, declines in abundance or fishery collapse is probable. Paddlefish Polyodon spathula,are a K-selected species that experienced historical declines in abundance as a result of habitat degradation and overfishing. Mark-recapture studies are well-suited for long-lived fishes by providing information on population density and vital rates. For sustainable commercial or recreational fisheries targeting species such as the paddlefish, managers require accurate estimates of population vital rates including survival, abundance, and exploitation. We used a Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (MFWP) mark-recapture dataset and modified Jolly-Seber (POPAN) models to estimate survival, recapture, probability of entry, and abundance of 8,518 tagged paddlefish over a 25-year period. With many supporting estimates including stable survival (0.92 for females, mean of 0.82 for males), low exploitation rates (means of 2.6% for females and 2.9% for males), and stable abundance estimates (25-year mean of 12,309 individuals for both sexes), the Fort Peck paddlefish population appears to be stable and well-managed over the past 25 years. Presently, this is the only study focused on paddlefish in North America that has estimated survival and abundance for both male and female paddlefish using contemporary analyses. This research provided a unique opportunity to highlight that the effort exerted by management agencies to collect long-term field data is extremely useful to our understanding of fish populations and management.     

Nutrient enrichment and fisheries exploitation: interactive effects on estuarine living resources and their management

Both fisheries exploitation and increased nutrient loadings strongly affect fish and shellfish abundance and production in estuaries. These stressors do not act independently; instead, they jointly influence food webs, and each affects the sensitivity of species and ecosystems to the other. Nutrient enrichment and the habitat degradation it sometimes causes can affect sustainable yields of fisheries, and fisheries exploitation can affect the ability of estuarine systems to process nutrients. The total biomass of fisheries landings in estuaries and semi-enclosed seas tends to increase with nitrogen loadings in spite of hypoxia, but hypoxia and other negative effects of nutrient over-enrichment cause declines in individual species and in parts of systems most severely affected. More thoroughly integrated management of nutrients and fisheries will permit more effective management responses to systems affected by both stressors, including the application of fisheries regulations to rebuild stocks negatively affected by eutrophication. Reducing fishing mortality may lead to the recovery of depressed populations even when eutrophication contributes to population declines if actions are taken while the population retains sufficient reproductive potential. New advances in modeling, statistics, and technology promise to provide the information needed to improve the understanding and management of systems subject to both nutrient enrichment and fisheries exploitation. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Guest editors: J. H. Andersen & D. J. Conley Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems: Selected papers from the Second International Symposium on Research and Management of Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems, 20–23 June 2006, Nyborg, Denmark     

Parrotfish Size: A Simple yet Useful Alternative Indicator of Fishing Effects on Caribbean Reefs?

There is great need to identify simple yet reliable indicators of fishing effects within the multi-species, multi-gear, data-poor fisheries of the Caribbean. Here, we investigate links between fishing pressure and three simple fish metrics, i.e. average fish weight (an estimate of average individual fish size), fish density and fish biomass, derived from (1) the parrotfish family, a ubiquitous herbivore family across the Caribbean, and (2) three fish groups of “commercial” carnivores including snappers and groupers, which are widely-used as indicators of fishing effects. We hypothesize that, because most Caribbean reefs are being heavily fished, fish metrics derived from the less vulnerable parrotfish group would exhibit stronger relationships with fishing pressure on today’s Caribbean reefs than those derived from the highly vulnerable commercial fish groups. We used data from 348 Atlantic and Gulf Rapid Reef Assessment (AGRRA) reef-surveys across the Caribbean to assess relationships between two independent indices of fishing pressure (one derived from human population density data, the other from open to fishing versus protected status) and the three fish metrics derived from the four aforementioned fish groups. We found that, although two fish metrics, average parrotfish weight and combined biomass of selected commercial species, were consistently negatively linked to the indices of fishing pressure across the Caribbean, the parrotfish metric consistently outranked the latter in the strength of the relationship, thus supporting our hypothesis. Overall, our study highlights that (assemblage-level) average parrotfish size might be a useful alternative indicator of fishing effects over the typical conditions of most Caribbean shallow reefs: moderate-to-heavy levels of fishing and low abundance of highly valued commercial species.     

Variability in the distribution and abundance of stream salmonids, and the associated use of habitat models

The effective management of salmonid fisheries requires that the factors influencing variation in the abundance of stream populations are understood. The use of habitat models to explain the spatial component of population variance offers potential for management, but has not previously been set in the context of long term variation in population abundance because of the lack of suitable data sets. This paper examines contributions of spatial and temporal factors lo fish density variance using a 10-year data set from five tributaries of the River Conwy, North Wales. Recently developed habitat models were applied to the data to test their ability to explain nominal spatial variance. Spatial variance accounted for between 21 and 62% of the overall variance of salmonid abundance, and habitat models explained up to 95% of the spatial variance component. Synchrony in population variation amongst sites within and between tributaries is described, and some of the factors that may influence this are discussed.     

The adaptive capacity of fishery management systems for confronting climate change impacts on marine populations

Global climate change will affect the abundance, distribution, and life history timing of many exploited marine populations, but specific changes are difficult to predict. Management systems in which harvest strategies and tactics are flexible in responding to unpredictable biological changes are more likely to succeed in maintaining productive populations. We explore the adaptability of fisheries management systems in relation to oceanic warming rates by asking how two important management characteristics vary with temperature changes for >500 stocks. (1) Harvest control rules, a framework for altering fishing pressure in response to changes in the abundance of targeted species (primarily due to fishing), may provide the capacity for harvest policies to change in response to climate-driven abundance declines also. (2) Seasonal openings with flexible dates that involve in-season monitoring may allow managers to better respond to possible changes in the timing of life-history periods like spawning to prevent fishing seasons falling out of sync with species’ phenology. Harvest control rules were widely used across industrialized fisheries including in regions that experienced relatively high oceanic warming rates, but after controlling for regional factors we found no association between ocean warming and the use of harvest control rules. Flexible-date seasonal openings were rare compared to fixed-date seasonal openings, but tended to occur in areas with the greatest warming rates while fisheries without seasonal closures tended to occur in areas with the least observed temperature changes. We found no consistent evidence of recent ocean warming effects on the current biomass or exploitation rates relative to management targets of 241 assessed marine populations. Together, these results suggest that the oceanic areas expected to have the greatest climate impacts on populations do at least tend to contain fisheries that demonstrate the potential for adaptability to unpredictable climate impacts.     

Watershed‐scale climate influences productivity of Chinook salmon populations across southcentral Alaska

The ecosystems supporting Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are changing rapidly as a result of climate change and habitat alteration. Understanding how—and how consistently—salmon populations respond to changes at regional and watershed scales has major implications for fisheries management and habitat conservation. Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) populations across Alaska have declined over the past decade, resulting in fisheries closures and prolonged impacts to local communities. These declines are associated with large‐scale climate drivers, but uncertainty remains about the role of local conditions (e.g., precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature) that vary among the watersheds where salmon spawn and rear. We estimated the effects of these and other environmental indicators on the productivity of 15 Chinook salmon populations in the Cook Inlet basin, southcentral Alaska, using a hierarchical Bayesian stock‐recruitment model. Salmon spawning during 2003–2007 produced 57% fewer recruits than the previous long‐term average, leading to declines in adult returns beginning in 2008. These declines were explained in part by density dependence, with reduced population productivity following years of high spawning abundance. Across all populations, productivity declined with increased precipitation during the fall spawning and early incubation period and increased with above‐average precipitation during juvenile rearing. Above‐average stream temperatures during spawning and rearing had variable effects, with negative relationships in many warmer streams and positive relationships in some colder streams. Productivity was also associated with regional indices of streamflow and ocean conditions, with high variability among populations. The cumulative effects of adverse conditions in freshwater, including high spawning abundance, heavy fall rains, and hot, dry summers may have contributed to the recent population declines across the region. Identifying both coherent and differential responses to environmental change underscores the importance of targeted, watershed‐specific monitoring and conservation efforts for maintaining resilient salmon runs in a warming world.     

Marine reserves and reproductive biomass: a case study of a heavily targeted reef fish

Recruitment overfishing (the reduction of a spawning stock past a point at which the stock can no longer replenish itself) is a common problem which can lead to a rapid and irreversible fishery collapse. Averting this disaster requires maintaining a sufficient spawning population to buffer stochastic fluctuations in recruitment of heavily harvested stocks. Optimal strategies for managing spawner biomass are well developed for temperate systems, yet remain uncertain for tropical fisheries, where the danger of collapse from recruitment overfishing looms largest. In this study, we explored empirically and through modeling, the role of marine reserves in maximizing spawner biomass of a heavily exploited reef fish, Lethrinus harak around Guam, Micronesia. On average, spawner biomass was 16 times higher inside the reserves compared with adjacent fished sites. Adult density and habitat-specific mean fish size were also significantly greater. We used these data in an age-structured population model to explore the effect of several management scenarios on L. harak demography. Under minimum-size limits, unlimited extraction and all rotational-closure scenarios, the model predicts that preferential mortality of larger and older fish prompt dramatic declines in spawner biomass and the proportion of male fish, as well as considerable declines in total abundance. For rotational closures this occurred because of the mismatch between the scales of recovery and extraction. Our results highlight how alternative management scenarios fall short in comparison to marine reserves in preserving reproductively viable fish populations on coral reefs.     

Implications of life history uncertainty when evaluating status in the Northwest Atlantic population of white shark (Carcharodon carcharias)

To effectively protect at‐risk sharks, resource managers and conservation practitioners must have a good understanding of how fisheries removals contribute to changes in abundance and how regulatory restrictions may impact a population trajectory. This means they need to know the number of animals being removed from a population and whether a given number of removals will lead to population increases or declines. For white shark (Carcharodon carcharias), theoretical quantities like the intrinsic rate of population increase or rebound potential (ability to increase in size following decline) are difficult to conceptualize in terms of real‐world abundance changes, which limits our ability to answer practical management questions. To address this shortfall, we designed a simulation model to evaluate how our understanding of longevity and life history variability of white shark affects our understanding of population trends in the Northwest Atlantic. Then, we quantified the magnitude of removals that could have caused historical population declines, compared these to biologically based reference points, and explored the removal scenarios which would result in population increase. Our results suggest that removals on the order of 100s of juveniles per year could have resulted in population‐level declines in excess of 60% during the 1970s and 1980s. Conservation actions implemented since the 1990s would have needed to be nearly 100% effective at preventing fishing mortality in order for the population to double in abundance over the last 30 years. Total removals from all fleets needed to be exceptionally small to keep them below biological reference points for white shark in the Northwest Atlantic. The population's inherent vulnerability to fishing pressure reaffirms the need for restrictive national and international conservation measures, even under a situation of abundance increase.     

Density dependence,prey accessibility and prey depletion by fisheries drive Peruvian seabird population dynamics

In marine ecosystems top predator populations are shaped by environmental factors affecting their prey abundance. Coupling top predators’ population studies with independent records of prey abundance suggests that prey fluctuations affect fecundity parameters and abundance of their predators. However, prey may be abundant but inaccessible to their predators and a major challenge is to determine the relative importance of prey accessibility in shaping seabird populations. In addition, disentangling the effects of prey abundance and accessibility from the effects of prey removal by fisheries, while accounting for density dependence, remains challenging for marine top predators. Here, we investigate how climate, population density, and the accessibility and removal of prey (the Peruvian anchovy Engraulis ringens) by fisheries influence the population dynamics of the largest sedentary seabird community (≈ 4 million individuals belonging to guanay cormorant Phalacrocorax bougainvillii, Peruvian booby Sula variegata and Peruvian pelican Pelecanus thagus) of the northern Humboldt Current System over the past half‐century. Using Gompertz state–space models we found strong evidence for density dependence in abundance for the three seabird species. After accounting for density dependence, sea surface temperature, prey accessibility (defined by the depth of the upper limit of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone) and prey removal by fisheries were retained as the best predictors of annual population size across species. These factors affected seabird abundance the current year and with year lags, suggesting effects on several demographic parameters including breeding propensity and adult survival. These findings highlight the effects of prey accessibility and fishery removals on seabird populations in marine ecosystems. This will help refine management objectives of marine ecosystems in order to ensure sufficient biomass of forage fish to avoid constraining seabird population dynamics, while taking into account of the effects of environmental variability.     

A new biological indicator to assess the ecological status of Mediterranean trout type streams

Fuelled by the generalized degradation of freshwater ecosystems, the development of tools to assess their ecological status has been the focus of intensive research in the last decades. Although fish are one of the key biological quality elements used to describe the ecological status of rivers, fish metrics that accurately respond to disturbances in Mediterranean trout type streams are still lacking. In these systems, multimetric indices are not optimal indicators because of their low species richness and abundances, thus alternative approaches are needed. Since carrying capacity defines the potential maximum abundance of fish that can be sustained by a river, its relationship with actual density (D/K ratio) could be an accurate indicator of population conservation status and consequently of the ecological status of the river. Based on this rationale, we modeled carrying capacity dynamics for 37 brown trout populations during a 12-year study period. We analyzed the response of the D/K ratio to a gradient of increasing environmental harshness and degradation in order to assess its suitability to accurately measure brown trout conservation status. Our results showed that the D/K ratio was highly sensitive to temporal and spatial variations in environmental conditions and the levels of human-induced environmental degradation. Variations in the environmental and human degradation factors included in the best explaining regression models developed for the whole population and by age classes accounted for between 58 and 81% of the variation in the D/K ratio. Likewise, the D/K ratio was sensitive to both general and life stage specific disturbance factors. Further analyses helped identify the factors limiting population abundance. Therefore, the D/K ratio could be an interesting indicator to consider when defining objective management plans and corrective actions in degraded rivers and streams subject to Mediterranean climatic conditions.     

Spatial management of the Mediterranean bottom-trawl fisheries: the case of the southern Aegean Sea

A time series of survey abundance indices for commercially important demersal fish and cephalopod species, inhabiting the narrow continental shelf of the southern Aegean Sea, is analyzed in relation to the topography of the area in order to evaluate the impact of different spatial fishery bans on the bottom-trawl fishery. With reference to the current situation, results suggested that implementation of the 1967/2006 EC Regulation, which bans bottom-trawl activities within 1.5 NM off the coast, will significantly increase (20–80%, depending on the species) the proportion of the populations that are inaccessible to the bottom-trawl fishery. It might also result in shifting of fishing activities toward deeper waters, adding fishing pressure onto slope resources inhabiting the slope. As depth determines, to a large extent, the distribution pattern of the species, it constitutes a variable of crucial importance for the spatial management of marine fisheries and should be taken into account when adopting relevant management regimes.     

Spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal, emerging disease of cervids associated with transmissible protease-resistant prion proteins. The potential for CWD to cause dramatic declines in deer and elk populations and perceived human health risks associated with consuming CWD-contaminated venison have led wildlife agencies to embark on extensive CWD control programs, typically involving culling to reduce deer populations. We characterized the spatial distribution of CWD in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Wisconsin to facilitate CWD management. We found that CWD prevalence declined with distance from a central location, was locally correlated at a scale of 3.6 km, and was correlated with deer habitat abundance. The latter result is consistent with patterns expected for a positive relationship between density and prevalence of CWD. We recommend management activities focused on culling in geographic areas with high prevalence to have the greatest probability of removing infected individuals. Further research is needed to elucidate the factors involved in CWD spread and infection rates, especially the role of density-dependent transmission.     

Assessing the potential impact of salmon fisheries management on the conservation status of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in north-east Scotland

Conservation efforts are often constrained by uncertainty over the factors driving declines in marine mammal populations. In Scotland, there is concern over the potential impact of unrecorded shooting of seals, particularly where this occurs near Special Areas of Conservation. Here, we show that the abundance of harbour seals Phoca vitulina in the Moray Firth, north-east Scotland, declined by 2–5% per annum between 1993 and 2004. Records from local salmon fisheries and aquaculture sites indicated that 66–327 harbour seals were shot each year between 1994 and 2002. Matrix models and estimates of potential biological removal indicate that this level of shooting is sufficient to explain observed declines. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the number and identity of seals shot means that other factors such as changes in food availability may be contributing. Recent conservation measures markedly reduced the recorded levels of shooting in 2003 and 2004. In 2005, a coordinated management plan was developed to protect salmon fisheries interests while minimizing impacts on local seal populations. Comprehensive monitoring of future population trends and improved regulation of culls are now required to provide more robust assessments of the impact of human persecution on harbour seal populations in the Moray Firth and in other parts of the UK.     

Characterizing fishing effort and spatial extent of coastal fisheries

Biodiverse coastal zones are often areas of intense fishing pressure due to the high relative density of fishing capacity in these nearshore regions. Although overcapacity is one of the central challenges to fisheries sustainability in coastal zones, accurate estimates of fishing pressure in coastal zones are limited, hampering the assessment of the direct and collateral impacts (e.g., habitat degradation, bycatch) of fishing. We compiled a comprehensive database of fishing effort metrics and the corresponding spatial limits of fisheries and used a spatial analysis program (FEET) to map fishing effort density (measured as boat-meters per km2) in the coastal zones of six ocean regions. We also considered the utility of a number of socioeconomic variables as indicators of fishing pressure at the national level; fishing density increased as a function of population size and decreased as a function of coastline length. Our mapping exercise points to intra and interregional 'hotspots' of coastal fishing pressure. The significant and intuitive relationships we found between fishing density and population size and coastline length may help with coarse regional characterizations of fishing pressure. However, spatially-delimited fishing effort data are needed to accurately map fishing hotspots, i.e., areas of intense fishing activity. We suggest that estimates of fishing effort, not just target catch or yield, serve as a necessary measure of fishing activity, which is a key link to evaluating sustainability and environmental impacts of coastal fisheries.     

A balance of winners and losers in the Anthropocene

Scientists disagree about the nature of biodiversity change. While there is evidence for widespread declines from population surveys, assemblage surveys reveal a mix of declines and increases. These conflicting conclusions may be caused by the use of different metrics: assemblage metrics may average out drastic changes in individual populations. Alternatively, differences may arise from data sources: populations monitored individually, versus whole‐assemblage monitoring. To test these hypotheses, we estimated population change metrics using assemblage data. For a set of 23 241 populations, 16 009 species, in 158 assemblages, we detected significantly accelerating extinction and colonisation rates, with both rates being approximately balanced. Most populations (85%) did not show significant trends in abundance, and those that did were balanced between winners (8%) and losers (7%). Thus, population metrics estimated with assemblage data are commensurate with assemblage metrics and reveal sustained and increasing species turnover.     

Connectivity, sustainability, and yield: bridging the gap between conventional fisheries management and marine protected areas

A substantial shift toward use of marine protected areas (MPAs) for conservation and fisheries management is currently underway. This shift to explicit spatial management presents new challenges and uncertainties for ecologists and resource managers. In particular, the potential for MPAs to change population sustainability, fishery yield, and ecosystem properties depends on the poorly understood consequences of three critical forms of connectivity over space: larval dispersal, juvenile and adult swimming, and movement of fishermen. Conventional fishery management describes the dynamics and current status of fish populations, with increasing recent emphasis on sustainability, often through reference points that reflect individual replacement. These compare lifetime egg production (LEP) to a critical replacement threshold (CRT) whose value is uncertain. Sustainability of spatially distributed populations also depends on individual replacement, but through all possible paths created by larval dispersal and LEP at each location. Model calculations of spatial replacement considering larval connectivity alone indicate sustainability and yield depend on species dispersal distance and the distribution of LEP created by species habitat distribution and fishing mortality. Adding MPAs creates areas with high LEP, increasing sustainability, but not necessarily yield. Generally, short distance dispersers will persist in almost all MPAs, while sustainability of long distance dispersers requires a specific density of MPAs along the coast. The value of that density also depends on the uncertain CRT, as well as fishing rate. MPAs can increase yield in areas with previously low LEP but for short distance dispersers, high yields will require many small MPAs. The paucity of information on larval dispersal distances, especially in cases with strong advection, renders these projections uncertain. Adding juvenile and adult movement to these calculations reduces LEP near the edges in MPAs, if movement is within a home-range, but more broadly over space if movement is diffusive. Adding movement of fishermen shifts effort on the basis of anticipated revenues and fishing costs, leading to lower LEP near ports, for example. Our evolving understanding of connectivity in spatial management could form the basis for a new, spatially oriented replacement reference point for sustainability, with associated new uncertainties.     

Performance of Baited Underwater Video: Does It Underestimate Abundance at High Population Densities?

Video survey techniques are now commonly used to estimate animal abundance under the assumption that estimates relate to true abundance, a key property needed to make video a valid survey tool. Using the spiny lobster Palinurus elephas as our model organism, we evaluate the effectiveness of baited underwater video (BUV) for estimating abundance in areas with widely different population density. We test three BUV abundance metrics and compare the results with an independently obtained abundance index from trammel-net surveys (Trammel). Video metrics used to estimate relative abundance include a value for total number of individuals per recording (TotN), the traditional maximum number of fish observed in a single video frame (MaxN), and the recently suggested alternative, the average of the mean MaxN from 5-minute periods throughout the duration of the recording (MeanN). This is the first video study of a wild population to include an estimate for TotN. Comparison of TotN with the other two BUV relative abundance metrics demonstrates that both of the latter lack resolution at high population densities. In spite of this, the three BUV metrics tested, as well as the independent estimate Trammel, distinguished high density areas from low density areas. Thus they could all be used to identify areas of differing population density, but MaxN and MeanN would not be appropriate metrics for studies aimed at documenting increases in abundance, such as those conducted to assess marine protected area effectiveness, as they are prone to sampling saturation. We also demonstrate that time of first arrival (T1) is highly correlated with all of the abundance indices; suggesting T1 may be a potentially useful index of abundance. However, these relationships require further investigation as our data suggests T1 may not adequately represent lobster abundance in areas of high density.     

Modelling spatial and temporal scales for spill-over and biomass exportation from MPAs and their potential for fisheries enhancement

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are considered as a tool for marine conservation and sustainable fishery resource management. Improvements in fishery yields should take place via the spill-over of individuals from the reserve. In general, it has been demonstrated that MPAs affect the density and biomass of the organisms within them, however, little evidence has been found in order to assess the exportation of individuals across their boundaries. In this study, a simple model involving population growth, harvest, and the diffusion coefficient for individuals was used to explore the effects of protection on populations inside the reserve and the spill-over of individuals to the fished area. The model showed that biological responses inside marine reserves appear to develop quickly, reaching mean levels within a short (1–5 year) time period. Mean population abundance is always higher inside the reserve and highlights the effectiveness of protection, particularly when there is strong fishing pressure outside the reserve. However, reserves smaller than 2000 m radius show significantly lower levels of abundance inside than larger sites. Large MPAs (i.e. about 2000 m in radius) offer nearly the maximum capacity for recovery (close to 100% of the system carrying capacity) and nearly the maximum flux of individuals per unit boundary length. Very large MPAs (i.e. larger than 6000 m in radius) could be a guaranteed means of providing resilience in order to prevent population crises, with the added advantage that the flux of individuals is slightly higher at larger distances from the boundary. However, in practice they provide no further advantage towards increasing the density of individuals or the exportation of biomass, and a network of smaller MPAs could be more beneficial, both from the point of view of conservation and of benefits to fisheries.