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1.

Background

Malaria remains a serious problem in French Guiana, which is at potential risk for drought linked with the El Niño Event and where there could be a risk of malaria epidemic after the onset of an El Niño event.

Methods

A time series analysis using ARIMA was developed to investigate temporal correlations between the monthly Plasmodium falciparum case numbers and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the Cayenne General Hospital between 1996 and 2009.

Results

The data showed a positive influence of El Niño at a lag of three months on P. falciparum cases (p < 0.001). The incorporation of SOI data in the ARIMA model reduced the AIC by 4%.

Conclusions

Although there is a statistical link, the predictive value of ENSO to modulate prevention intervention seems marginal in French Guiana. However, additional work should refine the regional dependence of malaria on the ENSO state.  相似文献   

2.

Background

Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics.

Methods

A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season.

Results

It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the first season (Oct-Mar) (R-squared = 0.73, p < 0.01). For the second season (Apr-Sep), high malaria incidence was associated with increased rainfall, but also with high maximum temperature during the first rainy season (multiple R-squared = 0.79, p < 0.01). The robustness of these statistical models was tested by excluding the two epidemic years from the regression analysis. DEMETER would have been unable to predict the heavy El Niño rains associated with the 1998 epidemic. Nevertheless, this epidemic could still have been predicted using the temperature forecasts alone. The 1997 epidemic could have been predicted from observed temperatures in the preceding season, but the consideration of the rainfall forecasts would have improved the temperature-only forecasts over the remaining years.

Conclusion

These results demonstrate the potential of a seasonal forecasting system in the development of a malaria early warning system in Kagera region.  相似文献   

3.

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.
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4.
5.

Background

Malaria is the direct cause of approximately one million deaths worldwide each year, though it is both preventable and curable. Increasing the understanding of the transmission dynamics of falciparum and vivax malaria and their relationship could suggest improvements for malaria control efforts. Here the weekly number of malaria cases due to Plasmodium falciparum (1994–2006) and Plasmodium vivax (1999–2006) in Perú at different spatial scales in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data are analysed.

Methods

Malaria periodicity patterns were analysed through wavelet spectral analysis, studied patterns of persistence as a function of community size and assessed spatial heterogeneity via the Lorenz curve and the summary Gini index.

Results

Wavelet time series analyses identified annual cycles in the incidence of both malaria species as the dominant pattern. However, significant spatial heterogeneity was observed across jungle, mountain and coastal regions with slightly higher levels of spatial heterogeneity for P. vivax than P. falciparum. While the incidence of P. falciparum has been declining in recent years across geographic regions, P. vivax incidence has remained relatively steady in jungle and mountain regions with a slight decline in coastal regions. Factors that may be contributing to this decline are discussed. The time series of both malaria species were significantly synchronized in coastal (ρ = 0.9, P < 0.0001) and jungle regions (ρ = 0.76, P < 0.0001) but not in mountain regions. Community size was significantly associated with malaria persistence due to both species in jungle regions, but not in coastal and mountain regions.

Conclusion

Overall, findings highlight the importance of highly refined spatial and temporal data on malaria incidence together with demographic and geographic information in improving the understanding of malaria persistence patterns associated with multiple malaria species in human populations, impact of interventions, detection of heterogeneity and generation of hypotheses.  相似文献   

6.

Background

Capacity strengthening of rural communities, and the various actors that support them, is needed to enable them to lead their own malaria control programmes. Here the existing capacity of a rural community in western Kenya was evaluated in preparation for a larger intervention.

Methods

Focus group discussions and semi-structured individual interviews were carried out in 1,451 households to determine (1) demographics of respondent and household; (2) socio-economic status of the household; (3) knowledge and beliefs about malaria (symptoms, prevention methods, mosquito life cycle); (4) typical practices used for malaria prevention; (5) the treatment-seeking behaviour and household expenditure for malaria treatment; and (6) the willingness to prepare and implement community-based vector control.

Results

Malaria was considered a major threat to life but relevant knowledge was a chimera of scientific knowledge and traditional beliefs, which combined with socio-economic circumstances, leads to ineffective malaria prevention. The actual malaria prevention behaviour practiced by community members differed significantly from methods known to the respondents. Beside bednet use, the major interventions implemented were bush clearing and various hygienic measures, even though these are ineffective for malaria prevention. Encouragingly, most respondents believed malaria could be controlled and were willing to contribute to a community-based malaria control program but felt they needed outside assistance.

Conclusion

Culturally sensitive but evidence-based education interventions, utilizing participatory tools, are urgently required which consider traditional beliefs and enable understanding of causal connections between mosquito ecology, parasite transmission and the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of disease. Community-based organizations and schools need to be equipped with knowledge through partnerships with national and international research and tertiary education institutions so that evidence-based research can be applied at the grassroots level.  相似文献   

7.

Background

Malaria is one of the oldest and deadliest infectious diseases in humans. Many mathematical models of malaria have been developed during the past century, and applied to potential interventions. However, malaria remains uncontrolled and is increasing in many areas, as are vector and parasite resistance to insecticides and drugs.

Methods

This study presents a simulation model of African malaria vectors. This individual-based model incorporates current knowledge of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics and their relations to the environment. One of its main strengths is that it is based on both biological and environmental variables.

Results

The model made it possible to structure existing knowledge, assembled in a comprehensive review of the literature, and also pointed out important aspects of basic Anopheles biology about which knowledge is lacking. One simulation showed several patterns similar to those seen in the field, and made it possible to examine different analyses and hypotheses for these patterns; sensitivity analyses on temperature, moisture, predation and preliminary investigations of nutrient competition were also conducted.

Conclusions

Although based on some mathematical formulae and parameters, this new tool has been developed in order to be as explicit as possible, transparent in use, close to reality and amenable to direct use by field workers. It allows a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics in general and also a better understanding of the dynamics in specific local geographic environments. It points out many important areas for new investigations that will be critical to effective, efficient, sustainable interventions.  相似文献   

8.
9.

Key message

Compared with annual tree-ring cellulose δ 18 O, intra-annual cellulose δ 18 O has potential to reconstruct precipitation with higher resolution and stronger signal intensity.

Abstract

Annual tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope values (δ18O) of Fokienia hodginsii provide a promising proxy of monsoon-season precipitation in Southeast China. Measuring intra-annual cellulose δ18O values may reveal the seasonal variability of precipitation and the associated climate influences. Here, we examine intra-annual variation of cellulose δ18O values in Fokienia hodginsii and Cryptomeria fortune from Fujian Province, Southeast China. Both species exhibited considerable intra-annual variations in cellulose δ18O (range ~6 ‰) with a consistent pattern of enriched values near the annual ring boundary and depleted values in the central portion of the ring. Seasonal patterns in the tree-ring δ18O values generally followed changes in precipitation δ18O values. Compared with annual tree-ring cellulose δ18O, intra-annual cellulose δ18O has potential to reconstruct precipitation with higher resolution and stronger signal intensity. July tree-ring cellulose δ18O is significantly correlated (r = ?0.58, p < 0.05) with July precipitation, and June–August tree-ring cellulose δ18O and annual tree-ring cellulose δ18O, respectively, explain 52 and 41 % of the actual variance of April–August precipitation. In addition, May–October cellulose δ18O values during El Niño years are higher than in La Niña years, and April to October rainfall is lower in El Niño years than in La Niña years. Combining the significant correlations between inter-annual cellulose δ18O values and sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, our results support the hypothesis that El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects tree-ring cellulose δ18O in Southeast China by modulating seasonal precipitation.
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10.
We analyzed sea temperature as an environmental factor, in association with ENSO, affecting the migration of East Pacific black turtle, Chelonia mydas (=Chelonia agassizii Bocourt), to its foraging areas and its feeding ecology at San Andrés, Peru. A 19-year sea turtle landing database (1970–1988) was constructed to associate landing fluctuations with environmental variability represented by the Peruvian Oscillation Index. A positive correlation between them (r = 0.75, P < 0.05) indicated that exceptionally large black turtle landings occurred in San Andrés port during El Niño episodes. Warmer waters (SST 22–28°C) approached near the Peruvian coast during El Niño episodes, thus facilitating black turtle access to this area. Furthermore, during El Niño 1987, large juvenile and adult black turtles, known to be primarily herbivorous, fed mainly on the scyphozoan jellyfish Chrysaora plocamia Péron &; Lesueur, which was very abundant during this event. It is likely that black turtles exploited this resource opportunistically. Inter-annual environmental variability, driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation, has profound consequences for the ecology of the endangered black turtle, which should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic activities on its population dynamics.  相似文献   

11.

Background

Zooprophylaxis, the diversion of disease carrying insects from humans to animals, may reduce transmission of diseases such as malaria. However, as the number of animals increases, improved availability of blood meals may increase mosquito survival, thereby countering the impact of diverting feeds.

Methods

Computer simulation was used to examine the effects of animals on the transmission of human diseases by mosquitoes. Three scenarios were modelled: (1) endemic transmission, where the animals cannot be infected, eg. malaria; (2) epidemic transmission, where the animals cannot be infected but humans remain susceptible, e.g. malaria; (3) epidemic disease, where both humans and animals can be infected, but develop sterile immunity, eg. Japanese encephalitis B. For each, the passive impact of animals as well as the use of animals as bait to attract mosquitoes to insecticide was examined. The computer programmes are available from the author. A teaching model accompanies this article.

Results

For endemic and epidemic malaria with significant searching-associated vector mortality, changing animal numbers and accessibility had little impact. Changing the accessibility of the humans had a much greater effect. For diseases with an animal amplification cycle, the most critical factor was the proximity of the animals to the mosquito breeding sites.

Conclusion

Estimates of searching-associated vector mortality are essential before the effects of changing animal husbandry practices can be predicted. With realistic values of searching-associated vector mortality rates, zooprophylaxis may be ineffective. However, use of animals as bait to attract mosquitoes to insecticide is predicted to be a promising strategy.  相似文献   

12.

Background

Malaria is a huge public health problem in Africa that is responsible for more than one million deaths annually. In line with the Roll Back Malaria initiative and the Abuja Declaration, Eritrea and other African countries have intensified their fight against malaria. This study examines the impact of Eritrea's Roll Back Malaria Programme: 2000–2004 and the effects and possible interactions between the public health interventions in use.

Methods

This study employed cross-sectional survey to collect data from households, community and health facilities on coverage and usage of Insecticide-Treated Nets (ITNs), Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), larvicidal activities and malaria case management. Comparative data was obtained from a similar survey carried out in 2001. Data from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) and reports of the annual assessments by the National Malaria Control Programme was used to assess impact. Time series model (ARIMA) was used to assess association.

Results

In the period 2000–2004, approximately 874,000 ITNs were distributed and 13,109 health workers and community health agents were trained on malaria case management. In 2004, approximately 81% households owned at least one net, of which 73% were ITNs and 58.6% of children 0–5 years slept under a net. The proportion of malaria cases managed by community health agents rose from 50% in 1999 to 78% in 2004. IRS coverage increased with the combined amount of DDT and Malathion used rising from 6,444 kg, in 2000 to 43,491 kg, in 2004, increasing the population protected from 117,017 to 259,420. Drug resistance necessitated regimen change to chloroquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. During the period, there was a steep decline in malaria morbidity and case fatality by 84% and 40% respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly correlated to the numbers of ITNs distributed (β = -0.125, p < 0.005) and the amount (kg) of DDT and Malathion used for IRS (β = -2.352, p < 0.05). The correlation between malaria case fatality and ITNs, IRS, population protected and annual rainfall was not statistically significant.

Conclusion

Eritrea has within 5 years attained key Roll Back Malaria targets. ITNs and IRS contributed most to reducing malaria morbidity.  相似文献   

13.

Background

Endemic northern malaria reached 68°N latitude in Europe during the 19th century, where the summer mean temperature only irregularly exceeded 16°C, the lower limit needed for sporogony of Plasmodium vivax. Because of the available historical material and little use of quinine, Finland was suitable for an analysis of endemic malaria and temperature.

Methods

Annual malaria death frequencies during 1800–1870 extracted from parish records were analysed against long-term temperature records in Finland, Russia and Sweden. Supporting data from 1750–1799 were used in the interpretation of the results. The life cycle and behaviour of the anopheline mosquitoes were interpreted according to the literature.

Results

Malaria frequencies correlated strongly with the mean temperature of June and July of the preceding summer, corresponding to larval development of the vector. Hatching of imagoes peaks in the middle of August, when the temperature most years is too low for the sporogony of Plasmodium. After mating some of the females hibernate in human dwellings. If the female gets gametocytes from infective humans, the development of Plasmodium can only continue indoors, in heated buildings.

Conclusion

Northern malaria existed in a cold climate by means of summer dormancy of hypnozoites in humans and indoor transmission of sporozoites throughout the winter by semiactive hibernating mosquitoes. Variable climatic conditions did not affect this relationship. The epidemics, however, were regulated by the population size of the mosquitoes which, in turn, ultimately was controlled by the temperatures of the preceding summer.  相似文献   

14.

Background

The spread of drug resistance is making malaria control increasingly difficult. Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of drug sensitive and resistant strains can be a useful tool to help to understand the factors that influence the spread of drug resistance, and they can therefore help in the design of rational strategies for the control of drug resistance.

Methods

We present an epidemiological framework to investigate the spread of anti-malarial resistance. Several mathematical models, based on the familiar Macdonald-Ross model of malaria transmission, enable us to examine the processes and parameters that are critical in determining the spread of resistance.

Results

In our simplest model, resistance does not spread if the fraction of infected individuals treated is less than a threshold value; if drug treatment exceeds this threshold, resistance will eventually become fixed in the population. The threshold value is determined only by the rates of infection and the infectious periods of resistant and sensitive parasites in untreated and treated hosts, whereas the intensity of transmission has no influence on the threshold value. In more complex models, where hosts can be infected by multiple parasite strains or where treatment varies spatially, resistance is generally not fixed, but rather some level of sensitivity is often maintained in the population.

Conclusions

The models developed in this paper are a first step in understanding the epidemiology of anti-malarial resistance and evaluating strategies to reduce the spread of resistance. However, specific recommendations for the management of resistance need to wait until we have more data on the critical parameters underlying the spread of resistance: drug use, spatial variability of treatment and parasite migration among areas, and perhaps most importantly, cost of resistance.  相似文献   

15.

Background

Malaria imposes significant costs on households and the poor are disproportionately affected. However, cost data are often from quantitative surveys with a fixed recall period. They do not capture costs that unfold slowly over time, or seasonal variations. Few studies investigate the different pathways through which malaria contributes towards poverty. In this paper, a framework indicating the complex links between malaria, poverty and vulnerability at the household level is developed and applied using data from rural Kenya.

Methods

Cross-sectional surveys in a wet and dry season provide data on treatment-seeking, cost-burdens and coping strategies (n = 294 and n = 285 households respectively). 15 case study households purposively selected from the survey and followed for one year provide in-depth qualitative information on the links between malaria, vulnerability and poverty.

Results

Mean direct cost burdens were 7.1% and 5.9% of total household expenditure in the wet and dry seasons respectively. Case study data revealed no clear relationship between cost burdens and vulnerability status at the end of the year. Most important was household vulnerability status at the outset. Households reporting major malaria episodes and other shocks prior to the study descended further into poverty over the year. Wealthier households were better able to cope.

Conclusion

The impacts of malaria on household economic status unfold slowly over time. Coping strategies adopted can have negative implications, influencing household ability to withstand malaria and other contingencies in future. To protect the poor and vulnerable, malaria control policies need to be integrated into development and poverty reduction programmes.  相似文献   

16.

Background

Malaria due to both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax is a major public health problem in India. The quantification of malaria transmission for the classification of malaria risk has long been a concern for epidemiologists. Results are presented from 30 cross-sectional surveys which measured spleen rates (SR) and infant parasite rates (IPR) in the forested districts of Madhya Pradesh during malaria outbreaks to assess whether both IPR and SR can still be used as indicators of malaria endemicity as spleen examination has lost much of its value as an epidemiological indicator in areas where anti-malarials drugs are widely used.

Methods

Rapid fever surveys were carried out from door to door and all suspected malaria cases in the entire population of a village were screened for malaria parasites on the basis of clinical symptoms such as fever, chill, rigor, headache and body ache etc. Children between 2 and 9 years were examined for enlarged spleen according to Hacketts method. Finger prick blood smears were collected from all children with enlarged spleen with or without fever after obtaining written informed consent following institutional ethical guidelines. Infants less than 1 year were also screened for malaria with or without fever.

Results

Since malaria is local and focal, in some areas the outbreak waned quickly in few months and in some areas continued for 3 to 4 years. The analysis of trend revealed that when IPR decline over the years as a result of malaria intervention measures, SR also decline. In case splenomegaly continues without diminution in size, it is probably due to recrudescence or relapse, although it is not possible to separate malaria parasite species on the basis of SR.

Conclusion

Both the tools are of immense value in evaluating and assessing the malaria situation especially in remote areas where sophisticated molecular and serological techniques are difficult to establish. Therefore, in forested areas malaria surveillance system will require adoption of multiple approaches that have proven effective now or in the past.
  相似文献   

17.

Background

Malaria is a major public health problem in Cameroon. Unlike in the southern forested areas where the epidemiology of malaria has been better studied prior to the implementation of control activities, little is known about the distribution and role of anophelines in malaria transmission in the coastal areas.

Methods

A 12-month longitudinal entomological survey was conducted in Tiko, Limbe and Idenau from August 2001 to July 2002. Mosquitoes captured indoors on human volunteers were identified morphologically. Species of the Anopheles gambiae complex were identified using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Mosquito infectivity was detected by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and PCR. Malariometric indices (plasmodic index, gametocytic index, parasite species prevalence) were determined in three age groups (<5 yrs, 5–15 yrs, >15 yrs) and followed-up once every three months.

Results

In all, 2,773 malaria vectors comprising Anopheles gambiae (78.2%), Anopheles funestus (17.4%) and Anopheles nili (7.4%) were captured. Anopheles melas was not anthropophagic. Anopheles gambiae had the highest infection rates. There were 287, 160 and 149 infective bites/person/year in Tiko, Limbe and Idenau, respectively. Anopheles gambiae accounted for 72.7%, An. funestus for 23% and An. nili for 4.3% of the transmission. The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia was 41.5% in children <5 years of age, 31.5% in those 5–15 years and 10.5% in those >15 years, and Plasmodium falciparum was the predominant parasite species.

Conclusion

Malaria transmission is perennial, rainfall dependent and An. melas does not contribute to transmission. These findings are important in the planning and implementation of malaria control activities in coastal Cameroon and West Africa.
  相似文献   

18.

Background

Malaria continues to claim one to two million lives a year, mainly those of children in sub-Saharan Africa. Reduction in mortality depends, in part, on improving the quality of hospital care, the training of healthcare workers and improvements in public health. This study examined the prognostic indicators of severe falciparum malaria in Gabonese children.

Methods

An observational study examining the clinical presentations and laboratory features of severe malaria was conducted at the Centre Hospitalier de Libreville, Gabon over two years. Febrile children aged from 0 to 10 years with Plasmodium falciparum infection and one or more features of severe malaria were enrolled.

Results

Most children presenting with severe falciparum malaria were less than 5 years (92.3% of 583 cases). Anaemia was the most frequent feature of severe malaria (67.8% of cases), followed by respiratory distress (31%), cerebral malaria (24%) hyperlactataemia (16%) and then hypoglycaemia (10%). Anaemia was more common in children under 18 months old, while cerebral malaria usually occurred in those over 18 months. The overall case fatality rate was 9%. The prognostic indicators with the highest case fatality rates were coma/seizures, hyperlactataemia and hypoglycaemia, and the highest case fatality rate was in children with all three of these features.

Conclusions

Prompt and appropriate, classification and treatment of malaria helps identify the most severely ill children and aids early and appropriate management of the severely ill child.  相似文献   

19.
20.

Key message

Striking hydro-climatic differences of 2 years (wet; dry) dramatically control the increment pattern of L. huasango in varying extent, even causing a “growth collapse” during the La Niña drought 2010/2011.

Abstract

We present the first multi-year long time series of local climate data in the seasonally dry tropical forest in Southern Ecuador and related growth dynamics of Loxopterygium huasango, a deciduous tree species. Local climate was investigated by installing an automatically weather station in 2007 and the daily tree growth variability was measured with high-resolution point dendrometers. The climatic impact on growth behaviour was evaluated. Hydro-climatic variables, like precipitation and relative humidity, were the most important factors for controlling tree growth. Changes in rainwater input affected radial increment rates and daily amplitudes of stem diameter variations within the study period from 2009 to 2013. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related variations of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures influenced the trees’ increment rates. Average radial increments showed high inter-annual (up to 7.89 mm) and inter-individual (up to 3.88 mm) variations. Daily amplitudes of stem diameter variations differed strongly between the two extreme years 2009 (wet) and 2011 (dry). Contrary to 2009, the La Niña drought in 2011 caused a rapid reduction of the daily amplitudes, indicating a total cessation (‘growth collapse’) of stem increment under ENSO-related drought conditions and demonstrating the high impact of climatic extreme events on carbon sequestration of the dry tropical forest ecosystem.
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