Persistence and stochasticity are key determinants of genetic diversity in plants associated with banded iron formation inselbergs

The high species endemism characteristic of many of the world's terrestrial island systems provides a model for studying evolutionary patterns and processes, yet there has been no synthesis of studies to provide a systematic evaluation of terrestrial island systems in this context. The banded iron formations (BIFs) of south‐western Australia are ancient terrestrial island formations occurring within a mosaic of alluvial clay soils, sandplains and occasional granite outcropping, across an old, gently undulating, highly weathered, plateau. Notably, these BIFs display exceptionally high beta plant diversity. Here, we address the determinants and consequences of genetic diversity for BIF‐associated plant species through a comprehensive review of all studies on species distribution modelling, phylogenetics, phylogeography, population genetics, life‐history traits and ecology. The taxa studied are predominantly narrowly endemic to individual or a few BIF ranges, but some have more regional distributions occurring both on and off BIFs. We compared genetic data for these BIF‐endemic species to other localised species globally to assess whether the unique history and ancestry of BIF landscapes has driven distinct genetic responses in plants restricted to this habitat. We also assessed the influence of life‐history parameters on patterns of genetic diversity. We found that BIF‐endemic species display similar patterns of genetic diversity and structure to other species with localised distributions. Despite often highly restricted distributions, large effective population size or clonal reproduction appears to provide these BIF‐endemic species with ecological and evolutionary resilience to environmental stochasticity. We conclude that persistence and stochasticity are key determinants of genetic diversity and its spatial structure within BIF‐associated plant species, and that these are key evolutionary processes that should be considered in understanding the biogeography of inselbergs worldwide.     

Application of r/K selection to macroinvertebrate responses to extreme floods

1. Due to climate change, contemporary climate scenarios forecast an increase in extreme weather, which may have considerable impacts on the world's riverine ecosystems. Because the flow regime is a primary determinant of the structure and function of lotic ecosystems, changes in the weather could fundamentally alter these ecosystems through changes in hydrologic disturbance regimes. 2. In this paper, we use the abundance/biomass comparison (ABC) method, based on r/K selection theory, and event probability distribution to characterise the responses of macroinvertebrates in Taiwan mountain streams to extreme floods. 3. Severe impacts on macroinvertebrates, resulting in a large shift in community structure toward r‐selected taxa, usually were observed the year after extreme floods. 4. Macroinvertebrate communities dominated by K‐selected taxa had more individuals with traits conferring resistance to flooding disturbance, while those dominated byr‐selected taxa had more individuals with traits conferring resilience. 5. This relationship between the changes in flow regime and the ecological response of r‐ and K‐selected taxa may be exploited to understand the potential effects of flood extremes in the future, and to keep decision makers informed about the ecological consequences of climate‐mediated changes to hydrological regimes.     

Dietary generalism accelerates arrival and persistence of coral‐reef fishes in their novel ranges under climate change

Climate change is redistributing marine and terrestrial species globally. Life‐history traits mediate the ability of species to cope with novel environmental conditions, and can be used to gauge the potential redistribution of taxa facing the challenges of a changing climate. However, it is unclear whether the same traits are important across different stages of range shifts (arrival, population increase, persistence). To test which life‐history traits most mediate the process of range extension, we used a 16‐year dataset of 35 range‐extending coral‐reef fish species and quantified the importance of various traits on the arrival time (earliness) and degree of persistence (prevalence and patchiness) at higher latitudes. We show that traits predisposing species to shift their range more rapidly (large body size, broad latitudinal range, long dispersal duration) did not drive the early stages of redistribution. Instead, we found that as diet breadth increased, the initial arrival and establishment (prevalence and patchiness) of climate migrant species in temperate locations occurred earlier. While the initial incursion of range‐shifting species depends on traits associated with dispersal potential, subsequent establishment hinges more on a species’ ability to exploit novel food resources locally. These results highlight that generalist species that can best adapt to novel food sources might be most successful in a future ocean.     

Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance–impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short‐term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance‐prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.     

Species traits in relation to temporal and spatial heterogeneity in streams: a test of habitat templet theory

1. The habitat templet approach depends on defining templet axes appropriate to the organism(s) of interest, predicting the traits of species associated with different parts of the templet, and testing these predictions in a range of habitats whose positions in the templet have been determined. 2. In this study of thirty-five benthic insect taxa at fifty-four tributary sites of the Taieri River on the South Island of New Zealand, we chose as the temporal axis the intensity/frequency of disturbance, defined in terms of bed movement during high discharge events. As the spatial axis, we postulated that three features would provide refugia and therefore ameliorate disturbance—percentage of the bed with low shear stress, percentage of the bed made up of large substratum particles and availability of interstitial space in the bed—from which we derived a combined multivariate refugium axis. 3. More disturbed communities contained a significantly higher percentage of individuals possessing the following traits: small size, high adult mobility, habitat generalist (each predicted to confer resilience in response to disturbance), clinger, streamlined/flattened and with two or more life stages outside the stream (each predicted to confer resistance in the face of disturbance). When analyses were performed on the percentage of taxa having particular traits, the predicted positive relationships with average bed movement were found for high adult mobility and habitat generalist traits. 4. The percentage of variance in trait scores explained by intensity of disturbance was generally higher in sites with less refugia available and lower in sites further from the headwaters. The percentage of variance explained was higher in sites recently subject to a major high discharge disturbance, suggesting that disturbances tend to strengthen the pattern of preponderance of resilience/resistance traits. 5. We mapped insect taxa onto the two-dimensional templet, following Grime et al.’s triangular terrestrial plant classification. The full variety of resistance and resilience traits were represented in insect species throughout the templet, but taxa associated with more disturbed conditions generally displayed a larger number of resilience and resistance traits, combined, than taxa associated with more stable stream beds.     

Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine,freshwater and terrestrial environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.     

Resilience capacity of Araucaria araucana to extreme drought events

Ongoing climate change has induced modification in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, with consequent impact on tree and forest growth resilience. Araucaria araucana is an endangered Patagonian conifer, which provides several ecosystem services to local human societies and plays fundamental ecological roles in natural communities. These woodlands have historically suffered different types of anthropogenic disturbance, such as fire, logging and grazing, nevertheless the species resilience to extreme drought events remains still poorly understood. To fill this gap of knowledge, we applied dendrochronological methods to several A. araucana stands distributed along a steep bioclimatic gradient in order to reconstruct resilience capacity, in term of stem growth resistance and recovery, to three successive extreme spring-early summer droughts which occurred during the 20th century. Results showed an increase in the species recovery along the considered dry spells, whereas no clear trend emerged for resistance, suggesting no cumulative effect of drought upon resilience. Both resistance and recovery presented different values depending on bioclimatic settings, being xeric stands more sensitive to extreme episodes with respect to mesic woodlands, particularly during the more recent drought event when trees growing in drier environments were not able to reach pre-drought stem growth rates. Tree-level characteristics, such as age and growth trends prior to drought, modulated the species resilience, suggesting that future dry spells would possibly induce shifts in population dynamics, and furthermore be detrimental for fast-growing trees. Our analysis highlighted the response of a key Patagonian tree species to extreme drought events, providing bioclimatic-specific useful information for conservation plans of this natural resource.     

Predicting resilience of ecosystem functioning from co‐varying species' responses to environmental change

Understanding how environmental change affects ecosystem function delivery is of primary importance for fundamental and applied ecology. Current approaches focus on single environmental driver effects on communities, mediated by individual response traits. Data limitations present constraints in scaling up this approach to predict the impacts of multivariate environmental change on ecosystem functioning. We present a more holistic approach to determine ecosystem function resilience, using long‐term monitoring data to analyze the aggregate impact of multiple historic environmental drivers on species' population dynamics. By assessing covariation in population dynamics between pairs of species, we identify which species respond most synchronously to environmental change and allocate species into “response guilds.” We then use “production functions” combining trait data to estimate the relative roles of species to ecosystem functions. We quantify the correlation between response guilds and production functions, assessing the resilience of ecosystem functioning to environmental change, with asynchronous dynamics of species in the same functional guild expected to lead to more stable ecosystem functioning. Testing this method using data for butterflies collected over four decades in the United Kingdom, we find three ecosystem functions (resource provisioning, wildflower pollination, and aesthetic cultural value) appear relatively robust, with functionally important species dispersed across response guilds, suggesting more stable ecosystem functioning. Additionally, by relating genetic distances to response guilds we assess the heritability of responses to environmental change. Our results suggest it may be feasible to infer population responses of butterflies to environmental change based on phylogeny—a useful insight for conservation management of rare species with limited population monitoring data. Our approach holds promise for overcoming the impasse in predicting the responses of ecosystem functions to environmental change. Quantifying co‐varying species' responses to multivariate environmental change should enable us to significantly advance our predictions of ecosystem function resilience and enable proactive ecosystem management.     

Resilience in reef‐building corals: The ecological and evolutionary importance of the host response to thermal stress

Coral reefs are under extreme threat due to a number of stressors, but temperature increases due to changing climate are the most severe. Rising ocean temperatures coupled with local extremes lead to extensive bleaching, where the coral‐algal symbiosis breaks down and corals may die, compromising the structure and function of reefs. Although the symbiotic nature of the coral colony has historically been a focus of research on coral resilience, the host itself is a foundational component in the response to thermal stress. Fixed effects in the coral host set trait baselines through evolutionary processes, acting on many loci of small effect to create mosaics of thermal tolerance across latitudes and individual coral reefs. These genomic differences can be strongly heritable, producing wide variation among clones of different genotypes or families of a specific larval cross. Phenotypic plasticity is overlaid on these baselines and a growing body of knowledge demonstrates the potential for acclimatization of reef‐building corals through a variety of mechanisms that promote resilience and stress tolerance. The long‐term persistence of coral reefs will require many of these mechanisms to adjust to warmer temperatures within a generation, bridging the gap to reproductive events that allow recombination of standing diversity and adaptive change. Business‐as‐usual climate scenarios will probably lead to the loss of some coral populations or species in the future, so the interaction between intragenerational effects and evolutionary pressure is critical for the survival of reefs.     

Hybridization during altitudinal range shifts: nuclear introgression leads to extensive cyto‐nuclear discordance in the fire salamander

Ecological models predict that, in the face of climate change, taxa occupying steep altitudinal gradients will shift their distributions, leading to the contraction or extinction of the high‐elevation (cold‐adapted) taxa. However, hybridization between ecomorphologically divergent taxa commonly occurs in nature and may lead to alternative evolutionary outcomes, such as genetic merger or gene flow at specific genes. We evaluate this hypothesis by studying patterns of divergence and gene flow across three replicate contact zones between high‐ and low‐elevation ecomorphs of the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) that have experienced altitudinal range shifts over the current postglacial period. Strong population structure with high genetic divergence in mitochondrial DNA suggests that vicariant evolution has occurred over several glacial–interglacial cycles and that it has led to cryptic differentiation within ecomorphs. In current parapatric boundaries, we do not find evidence for local extinction and replacement upon postglacial expansion. Instead, parapatric taxa recurrently show discordance between mitochondrial and nuclear markers, suggesting nuclear‐mediated gene flow across contact zones. Isolation with migration models support this hypothesis by showing significant gene flow across all five parapatric boundaries. Together, our results suggest that, while some genomic regions, such as the mitochondria, may follow morphologic species traits and retreat to isolated mountain tops, other genomic regions, such as nuclear markers, may flow across parapatric boundaries, sometimes leading to a complete genetic merger. We show that despite high ecologic and morphologic divergence over prolonged periods of time, hybridization allows for evolutionary outcomes alternative to extinction and replacement of taxa in response to climate change.     

Reconsidering connectivity in the sub‐Antarctic

Extreme and remote environments provide useful settings to test ideas about the ecological and evolutionary drivers of biological diversity. In the sub‐Antarctic, isolation by geographic, geological and glaciological processes has long been thought to underpin patterns in the region's terrestrial and marine diversity. Molecular studies using increasingly high‐resolution data are, however, challenging this perspective, demonstrating that many taxa disperse among distant sub‐Antarctic landmasses. Here, we reconsider connectivity in the sub‐Antarctic region, identifying which taxa are relatively isolated, which are well connected, and the scales across which this connectivity occurs in both terrestrial and marine systems. Although many organisms show evidence of occasional long‐distance, trans‐oceanic dispersal, these events are often insufficient to maintain gene flow across the region. Species that do show evidence of connectivity across large distances include both active dispersers and more sedentary species. Overall, connectivity patterns in the sub‐Antarctic at intra‐ and inter‐island scales are highly complex, influenced by life‐history traits and local dynamics such as relative dispersal capacity and propagule pressure, natal philopatry, feeding associations, the extent of human exploitation, past climate cycles, contemporary climate, and physical barriers to movement. An increasing use of molecular data – particularly genomic data sets that can reveal fine‐scale patterns – and more effective international collaboration and communication that facilitates integration of data from across the sub‐Antarctic, are providing fresh insights into the processes driving patterns of diversity in the region. These insights offer a platform for assessing the ways in which changing dispersal mechanisms, such as through increasing human activity and changes to wind and ocean circulation, may alter sub‐Antarctic biodiversity patterns in the future.     

Evidence for evolutionary change associated with the recent range expansion of the British butterfly, Aricia agestis, in response to climate change

Poleward range expansions are widespread responses to recent climate change and are crucial for the future persistence of many species. However, evolutionary change in traits such as colonization history and habitat preference may also be necessary to track environmental change across a fragmented landscape. Understanding the likelihood and speed of such adaptive change is important in determining the rate of species extinction with ongoing climate change. We conducted an amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)‐based genome scan across the recently expanded UK range of the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis, and used outlier‐based (DFDIST and BayeScan) and association‐based (Isolation‐By‐Adaptation) statistical approaches to identify signatures of evolutionary change associated with range expansion and habitat use. We present evidence for (i) limited effects of range expansion on population genetic structure and (ii) strong signatures of selection at approximately 5% AFLP loci associated with both the poleward range expansion of A. agestis and differences in habitat use across long‐established and recently colonized sites. Patterns of allele frequency variation at these candidate loci suggest that adaptation to new habitats at the range margin has involved selection on genetic variation in habitat use found across the long‐established part of the range. Our results suggest that evolutionary change is likely to affect species’ responses to climate change and that genetic variation in ecological traits across species’ distributions should be maximized to facilitate range shifts across a fragmented landscape, particularly in species that show strong associations with particular habitats.     

Isolation predicts compositional change after discrete disturbances in a global meta‐study

Globally, anthropogenic disturbances are occurring at unprecedented rates and over extensive spatial and temporal scales. Human activities also affect natural disturbances, prompting shifts in their timing and intensities. Thus, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to disturbance. In this study, we investigated whether there are general determinants of community response to disturbance across different community types, locations, and disturbance events. We compiled 14 case studies of community response to disturbance from four continents, twelve aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem types, and eight different types of disturbance. We used community compositional differences and species richness to indicate community response. We used mixed‐effects modeling to test the relationship between each of these response metrics and four potential explanatory factors: regional species pool size, isolation, number of generations passed, and relative disturbance intensity. We found that compositional similarity was higher between pre‐ and post‐disturbance communities when the disturbed community was connected to adjacent undisturbed habitat. The number of generations that had passed since the disturbance event was a significant, but weak, predictor of community compositional change; two communities were responsible for the observed relationship. We found no significant relationships between the factors we tested and changes in species richness. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to search for general drivers of community resilience from a diverse set of case studies. The strength of the relationship between compositional change and isolation suggests that it may be informative in resilience research and biodiversity management.     

Leveraging nature's backup plans to incorporate interspecific interactions and resilience into restoration

Interspecific interactions are important structuring forces in ecological communities. Interactions can be disturbed when species are lost from a community. When interactions result in fitness gains for at least one participating organism, that organism may experience reduced fitness as a result of interaction disturbance. However, many species exhibit traits that enable individuals to persist and reproduce in spite of such disruptions, resulting in resilience to interaction disturbance. Such traits can result in interaction generalization, phenotypic and behavioral plasticity, and adaptive capacity. We discuss examples of these traits and use case studies to illustrate how restoration practitioners can use a trait‐based approach to examine species of concern, identify traits that are associated with interspecific interactions and are relevant to resilience, and target such traits in restoration. Restoration activities that bolster interaction resilience could include, for example, reintroducing or supporting specific functional groups or managing abiotic conditions to reduce interaction dependence by at‐risk species (e.g. providing structural complexity offering shelter and cover). Resilience may also be an important consideration in species selection for restoration. Establishment of resilient species, able to persist after interaction disturbance, may be essential to restoring to a functioning ecological community. Once such species are present, they could help support more specialized species that lack resilience traits, such as many species of concern. Understanding the conditions under which processes linked to resilience may enable species to persist and communities to reform following interaction disturbance is a key application of community ecology to ecological restoration.     

Assessing the vulnerability of an assemblage of subtropical rainforest vertebrate species to climate change in south‐east Queensland

Global climate change is a threat to ecosystems that are rich in biodiversity and endemism, such as the World Heritage‐listed subtropical rainforests of central eastern Australia. Possible effects of climate change on the biota of tropical rainforests have been studied, but subtropical rainforests have received less attention. We analysed published data for an assemblage of 38 subtropical rainforest vertebrate species in four taxonomic groups to evaluate their relative vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on endemic and/or threatened species, we considered two aspects of vulnerability: (i) resistance, defined by indicators of rarity (geographical range, habitat specificity and local abundance); and (ii) resilience, defined by indicators of a species potential to recover (reproductive output, dispersal potential and climatic niche). Our analysis indicated that frogs are most vulnerable to climate change, followed by reptiles, birds, then mammals. Many species in our assemblage are regionally endemic montane rainforest specialists with high vulnerability. Monitoring of taxa in regenerating rainforest showed that many species with high resilience traits also persisted in disturbed habitat, suggesting that they have capacity to recolonize habitats after disturbance, that is climate change‐induced events. These results will allow us to prioritize adaptation strategies for species most at risk. We conclude that to safeguard the most vulnerable amphibian, reptile and bird species against climate change, climatically stable habitats (cool refugia) that are currently without protection status need to be identified, restored and incorporated in the current reserve system. Our study provides evidence that montane subtropical rainforest deserves highest protection status as habitat for vulnerable taxa.     

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well‐documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi‐taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post‐1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across‐species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across‐species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non‐climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large‐scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.     

Phylogenetic tests of community assembly across regional to continental scales in tropical and subtropical rain forests

Aim To measure and quantify community phylogenetic structure to evaluate how evolutionary, ecological and biogeographic processes have shaped the distributions and assemblage of tropical and subtropical rain forest tree species across local, regional and continental scales. Location Australia. Methods We used 596 assemblage‐level samples and 1137 woody species in rain forest vegetation sampled across two latitude regions (tropics and sub‐tropics) and five distinct areas. Based on this dataset, we obtained and analysed species‐level trait values (for leaf size, seed size, wood density and maximum height at maturity), measures of community phylogenetic structure and species turnover across space (beta) and evolutionary time (phylobeta). Results Phylobeta values showed that at continental scales (i.e. across the latitude regions combined) species replacement, as turnover in assemblages through time, was by more phylogenetically distant (i.e. less closely related) taxa. Within latitude regions replacement was by more closely related taxa. Assemblages of species were more phylogenetically clustered across the whole phylogeny (net relatedness index) and with respect to more recent divergences (nearest related taxon index) where the effects of historic disturbance (climatic oscillations) had been greater, and less clustered in long‐term stable (refugial) locations. Local species composition in the stable wet tropics showed significant phylogenetic evenness, but there was no corresponding evenness in distributions of the ecological traits measured. Main conclusions Despite a shared evolutionary and biogeographic history, the two regions diverged from each other before the development of internal divergences. Phylogenetic evenness is more evident in long‐term stable habitats (refugia) where species interact in conserved niches. Phylogenetic clustering is more evident where recolonization of more highly disturbed areas from historically reduced species pools reflects filtering of species into phylogenetically preferred habitats.     

Performance,genomic rearrangements,and signatures of adaptive evolution: Lessons from fermentative yeasts

The capacity of some yeasts to extract energy from single sugars, generating CO₂ and ethanol (=fermentation), even in the presence of oxygen, is known as the Crabtree effect. This phenomenon represents an important adaptation as it allowed the utilization of the ecological niche given by modern fruits, an abundant source of food that emerged in the terrestrial environment in the Cretaceous. However, identifying the evolutionary events that triggered fermentative capacity in Crabtree‐positive species is challenging, as microorganisms do not leave fossil evidence. Thus, key innovations should be inferred based only on traits measured under culture conditions. Here, we reanalyzed data from a common garden experiment where several proxies of fermentative capacity were recorded in Crabtree‐positive and Crabtree‐negative species, representing yeast phylogenetic diversity. In particular, we applied the “lasso‐OU” algorithm which detects points of adaptive shifts, using traits that are proxies of fermentative performance. We tested whether multiple events or a single event explains the actual fermentative capacity of yeasts. According to the lasso‐OU procedure, evolutionary changes in the three proxies of fermentative capacity that we considered (i.e., glycerol production, ethanol yield, and respiratory quotient) are consistent with a single evolutionary episode (a whole‐genomic duplication, WGD), instead of a series of small genomic rearrangements. Thus, the WGD appears as the key event behind the diversification of fermentative yeasts, which by increasing gene dosage, and maximized their capacity of energy extraction for exploiting the new ecological niche provided by single sugars.     

Maintaining historic disturbance regimes increases species' resilience to catastrophic hurricanes

As habitat loss and fragmentation, urbanization, and global climate change accelerate, conservation of rare ecosystems increasingly relies on human intervention. However, any conservation strategy is vulnerable to unpredictable, catastrophic events. Whether active management increases or decreases a system's resilience to these events remains unknown. Following Hurricane Irma's landfall in our habitat restoration study sites, we found that rare ecosystems with active, human‐imposed management suffered less damage in a hurricane's path than unmanaged systems. At the center of Irma's landfall, we found Croton linearis' (a locally rare plant that is the sole host for two endangered butterfly species) survival and population growth rates in the year of the hurricane were higher in previously managed plots than in un‐managed controls. In the periphery of Irma's circulation, the effect of prior management was stronger than that of the hurricane. Maintaining the historical disturbance regime thus increased the resilience of the population to major hurricane disturbance. As climate change increases the probability and intensity of severe hurricanes, human management of disturbance‐adapted landscapes will become increasingly important for maintaining populations of threatened species in a storm's path. Doing nothing will accelerate extinction.     

Forecasting range shifts of a cold‐adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?

Cold‐adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold‐adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high‐throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate species distribution models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineage‐specific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold‐adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change.