Long-term ecological sites: musings on the future, as seen (dimly) from the past

Long-term ecological sites are 'listening places'– places where we press our ears to the earth and strain to hear its pulse. Such sites will be needed especially in coming decades, as ecosystems throughout the world face mounting stresses, mostly from human influences. My aim, in these musings, is to elicit conversation, by way of seven questions, about how best to look after the long-term sites, so that they remain intact, relevant, and enlightening for our successors, decades hence.     

Carbon sequestration in riparian forests: A global synthesis and meta‐analysis

Restoration of deforested and degraded landscapes is a globally recognized strategy to sequester carbon, improve ecological integrity, conserve biodiversity, and provide additional benefits to human health and well‐being. Investment in riparian forest restoration has received relatively little attention, in part due to their relatively small spatial extent. Yet, riparian forest restoration may be a particularly valuable strategy because riparian forests have the potential for rapid carbon sequestration, are hotspots of biodiversity, and provide numerous valuable ecosystem services. To inform this strategy, we conducted a global synthesis and meta‐analysis to identify general patterns of carbon stock accumulation in riparian forests. We compiled riparian biomass and soil carbon stock data from 117 publications, reports, and unpublished data sets. We then modeled the change in carbon stock as a function of vegetation age, considering effects of climate and whether or not the riparian forest had been actively planted. On average, our models predicted that the establishment of riparian forest will more than triple the baseline, unforested soil carbon stock, and that riparian forests hold on average 68–158 Mg C/ha in biomass at maturity, with the highest values in relatively warm and wet climates. We also found that actively planting riparian forest substantially jump‐starts the biomass carbon accumulation, with initial growth rates more than double those of naturally regenerating riparian forest. Our results demonstrate that carbon sequestration should be considered a strong co‐benefit of riparian restoration, and that increasing the pace and scale of riparian forest restoration may be a valuable investment providing both immediate carbon sequestration value and long‐term ecosystem service returns.     

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being.     

Development, maintenance and role of riparian vegetation in the river landscape

1. Riparian structure and function were considered from a longitudinal perspective in order to identify multiscale couplings with adjacent ecosystems and to identify research needs. 2. We characterized functional zones (with respect to vegetation development in association with various biogeochemical processes) within geomorphological settings using a delineation based upon erosional, transitional and depositional properties. 3. Vegetation dynamics within the riparian corridor are clearly influenced substantially by hydrological disturbance regimes. In turn, we suggest that vegetation productivity and diversity may widely influence riverine biogeochemical processes, especially as related to the consequences of changing redox conditions occurring from upstream to downstream. 4. However, surface and groundwater linkages are the predominant controls of landscape connectivity within riparian systems. 5. The importance of riparian zones as sources and sinks of matter and energy was examined in context of structural and functional attributes, such as sequestering or cycling of nutrients in sediments, retention of water in vegetation, and retention, diffusion or dispersal of biota. 6. The consequences of interactions between different communities (e.g. animals and plants, micro-organisms and plants) on biogeochemical processes are notably in need of research, especially with respect to control of landscape features. Multiscale approaches, coupling regional and local factors in all three spatial dimensions, are needed in order to understand more synthetically and to model biogeochemical and community processes within the river-riparian-upland landscape of catchments.     

Insights from a Cross‐Disciplinary Seminar: 10 Pivotal Papers for Ecological Restoration

Restoration ecology is a deepening and diversifying field with current research incorporating multiple disciplines and infusing long‐standing ideas with fresh perspectives. We present a list of 10 recent pivotal papers exemplifying new directions in ecological restoration that were selected by students in a cross‐disciplinary graduate seminar at the University of California, Berkeley. We highlight research that applies ecological theory to improve restoration practice in the context of global change (e.g. climate modeling, evaluation of novel ecosystems) and discuss remaining knowledge gaps. We also discuss papers that recognize the social context of restoration and the coupled nature of social and ecological systems, ranging from the incorporation of cultural values and Traditional Ecological Knowledge into restoration, to the consideration of the broader impacts of markets on restoration practices. In addition, we include perspectives that focus on improving communication between social and natural scientists as well as between scientists and practitioners, developing effective ecological monitoring, and applying more integrated, whole‐landscape approaches to restoration. We conclude with insights on recurrent themes in the papers regarding planning restoration in human‐modified landscapes, application of ecological theory, improvements to restoration practice, and the social contexts of restoration. We share lessons from our cross‐disciplinary endeavor, and invite further discussion on the future directions of restoration ecology through contributions to our seminar blog site http://restecology.blogspot.com .     

Caribbean reefs of the Anthropocene: Variance in ecosystem metrics indicates bright spots on coral depauperate reefs

Dramatic coral loss has significantly altered many Caribbean reefs, with potentially important consequences for the ecological functions and ecosystem services provided by reef systems. Many studies examine coral loss and its causes—and often presume a universal decline of ecosystem services with coral loss—rather than evaluating the range of possible outcomes for a diversity of ecosystem functions and services at reefs varying in coral cover. We evaluate 10 key ecosystem metrics, relating to a variety of different reef ecosystem functions and services, on 328 Caribbean reefs varying in coral cover. We focus on the range and variability of these metrics rather than on mean responses. In contrast to a prevailing paradigm, we document high variability for a variety of metrics, and for many the range of outcomes is not related to coral cover. We find numerous “bright spots,” where herbivorous fish biomass, density of large fishes, fishery value, and/or fish species richness are high, despite low coral cover. Although it remains critical to protect and restore corals, understanding variability in ecosystem metrics among low‐coral reefs can facilitate the maintenance of reefs with sustained functions and services as we work to restore degraded systems. This framework can be applied to other ecosystems in the Anthropocene to better understand variance in ecosystem service outcomes and identify where and why bright spots exist.     

Temporal lags in observed and dark diversity in the Anthropocene

Understanding biodiversity changes in the Anthropocene (e.g. due to climate and land‐use change) is an urgent ecological issue. This important task is challenging because global change effects and species responses are dependent on the spatial scales considered. Furthermore, responses are often not immediate. However, both scale and time delay issues can be tackled when, at each study site, we consider dynamics in both observed and dark diversity. Dark diversity includes those species in the region that can potentially establish and thrive in the local sites’ conditions but are currently locally absent. Effectively, dark diversity connects biodiversity at the study site to the regional scales and defines the site‐specific species pool (observed and dark diversity together). With dark diversity, it is possible to decompose species gains and losses into two space‐related components: one associated with local dynamics (species moving from observed to dark diversity and vice versa) and another related to gains and losses of site‐specific species pool (species moving to and from the pool after regional immigration, regional extinction or change in local ecological conditions). Extinction debt and immigration credit are useful to understand dynamics in observed diversity, but delays might happen in species pool changes as well. In this opinion piece we suggest that considering both observed and dark diversity and their temporal dynamics provides a deeper understanding of biodiversity changes. Considering both observed and dark diversity creates opportunities to improve conservation by allowing to identify species that are likely to go regionally extinct as well as foreseeing which of the species that newly arrive to the region are more likely to colonize local sites. Finally, by considering temporal lags and species gains and losses in observed and dark diversity, we combine phenomena at both spatial and temporal scales, providing a novel tool to examine biodiversity change in the Anthropocene.     

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.     

A new seasonal‐deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios

A spring phenology model that combines photoperiod with accumulated heating and chilling to predict spring leaf‐out dates is optimized using PhenoCam observations and coupled into the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5. In head‐to‐head comparison (using satellite data from 2003 to 2013 for validation) for model grid cells over the Northern Hemisphere deciduous broadleaf forests (5.5 million km²), we found that the revised model substantially outperformed the standard CLM seasonal‐deciduous spring phenology submodel at both coarse (0.9 × 1.25°) and fine (1 km) scales. The revised model also does a better job of representing recent (decadal) phenological trends observed globally by MODIS, as well as long‐term trends (1950–2014) in the PEP725 European phenology dataset. Moreover, forward model runs suggested a stronger advancement (up to 11 days) of spring leaf‐out by the end of the 21st century for the revised model. Trends toward earlier advancement are predicted for deciduous forests across the whole Northern Hemisphere boreal and temperate deciduous forest region for the revised model, whereas the standard model predicts earlier leaf‐out in colder regions, but later leaf‐out in warmer regions, and no trend globally. The earlier spring leaf‐out predicted by the revised model resulted in enhanced gross primary production (up to 0.6 Pg C yr^?1) and evapotranspiration (up to 24 mm yr^?1) when results were integrated across the study region. These results suggest that the standard seasonal‐deciduous submodel in CLM should be reconsidered, otherwise substantial errors in predictions of key land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks may result.     

Flattening of Caribbean coral reefs: region-wide declines in architectural complexity

Coral reefs are rich in biodiversity, in large part because their highly complex architecture provides shelter and resources for a wide range of organisms. Recent rapid declines in hard coral cover have occurred across the Caribbean region, but the concomitant consequences for reef architecture have not been quantified on a large scale to date. We provide, to our knowledge, the first region-wide analysis of changes in reef architectural complexity, using nearly 500 surveys across 200 reefs, between 1969 and 2008. The architectural complexity of Caribbean reefs has declined nonlinearly with the near disappearance of the most complex reefs over the last 40 years. The flattening of Caribbean reefs was apparent by the early 1980s, followed by a period of stasis between 1985 and 1998 and then a resumption of the decline in complexity to the present. Rates of loss are similar on shallow (<6 m), mid-water (6–20 m) and deep (>20 m) reefs and are consistent across all five subregions. The temporal pattern of declining architecture coincides with key events in recent Caribbean ecological history: the loss of structurally complex Acropora corals, the mass mortality of the grazing urchin Diadema antillarum and the 1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation-induced worldwide coral bleaching event. The consistently low estimates of current architectural complexity suggest regional-scale degradation and homogenization of reef structure. The widespread loss of architectural complexity is likely to have serious consequences for reef biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and associated environmental services.     

Moving from autonomous to planned adaptation in the montane forests of southeastern Australia under changing fire regimes

Forest ecosystems and their associated natural, cultural and economic values are highly vulnerable to climate driven changes in fire regimes. A detailed knowledge of forest ecosystem responses to altered fire regimes is a necessary underpinning to inform options for adaptive responses under climate change, as well as for providing a basis for understanding how patterns of distribution of vegetation communities that comprise montane forest ecosystems may change in the future. Unplanned consequential adaptation of both natural and human systems, i.e. autonomous adaptation, will occur without planned intervention, with potentially negative impacts on ecosystem services. The persistence of forest stands under changing fire regimes and the maintenance of the ecosystem services that they provide pivot upon underlying response traits, such as the ability to resprout, that determine the degree to which composition, structure and function are likely to change. The integration of ecosystem dynamics into conceptual models and their use in exploring adaptation pathways provides options for policy makers and managers to move from autonomous to planned adaptation responses. Understanding where autonomous adaptation provides a benefit and where it proves potentially undesirable is essential to inform adaptation choices. Plausible scenarios of ecological change can be developed to improve an understanding of the nature and timing of interventions and their consequences, well before natural and human systems autonomously adapt in ways that may be detrimental to the long‐term provision of ecosystem services. We explore the utility of this approach using examples from temperate montane forest ecosystems of southeastern Australia.     

新疆玛纳斯河流域冰川生态系统服务功能价值评估

冰川在干旱区内陆河流域中具有极其重要的生态作用,为流域发展提供着巨大的服务功能.然而,在全球气候变暖的影响下,冰川退缩将导致冰川生态系统服务功能降低.应用GIS空间分析技术分析了玛纳斯河流域从1964年至2006年冰川面积变化,并评估其生态系统服务功能价值变化.结果表明,在全球变暖的影响下,流域冰川生态系统服务功能总价值急剧下降.流域冰川面积从1964年557.1km2退缩到2006年的464.1km2,面积减少了16.7%.冰川生态系统服务功能价值从1964年的1228.5×108元下降到2006年的960.1×108元.冰川退缩改变了流域的水资源分布特征,导致冰川生态系统服务功能价值下降.在未来的流域发展规划中,应高度重视冰川变化产生的生态效应.     

城市绿色基础设施降温作用及其影响因素研究进展

城市绿色基础设施（UGI）作为一种多尺度、多类型和多功能的绿色网络,对缓解城市升温和提升城市气候韧性具有重要作用。尽管如此,当前仍缺乏关于UGI降温作用研究方法、降温机制、尺度效应和影响因素等方面的系统性综述。为此,从尺度、方法、降温机制、影响因素等多个方面详尽回顾了UGI降温作用研究进展,并讨论了其局限性、挑战和未来研究方向。研究发现：（1） UGI降温作用的研究尺度可归纳为站点、建筑、街道、绿地、街区和城市6类,其中站点、绿地和街区等微尺度和局部尺度研究较多,而城市尺度关注则较少。（2）研究方法可分为温度数据获取、降温作用测度和影响因素分析三部分。其中,温度数据获取主要采用实地观测、遥感观测和模型模拟三类方法;降温作用测度可分为基于空间参考、基于时间或情景参考和基于统计关系三类;影响因素分析多采用相关分析与多重线性回归等传统统计方法,此外,可探究非线性影响的机器学习方法也逐渐得到应用。（3） UGI降温作用主要依赖于遮荫、蒸散发与冷空气团平流三类机制;UGI植被物种构成与形态、UGI空间配置和外部环境是影响降温作用的三类主要因素;不同尺度降温作用的主控影响因素存在差异,随着尺度扩大UGI空间配置因素的重要性逐渐增加。最后,研究从时空尺度、降温机制、综合影响因素、生态系统服务视角等方面讨论了当前研究的局限和未来挑战,并强调了新型数据获取技术、组合降温策略以及城市尺度UGI系统降温作用等未来研究方向。     

Restoration Ecology's silver jubilee: innovation,debate, and creating a future for restoration ecology

At a time when the science and practice of restoration ecology is adapting to ongoing environmental and social change, innovations in both methods and concepts are essential. Encouraging innovation means allowing open debate about alternative approaches that may add to the toolbox available for restoration. Such approaches are usually being examined as additions to, rather than substitutes for, traditional restoration practices. Recent debate has focused on the scope and intent of restoration as defined in documents such as the Society for Ecological Restoration Standards. There is a mismatch between the default aim in the standards of full restoration to a native reference system and the goals of international restoration efforts that have a broader and more functional focus. The next generation of restoration scientists and practitioners will need to navigate these issues to ensure that restoration remains effective and relevant. This will require, amongst other things, ongoing learning, sharing information and insights, humility, objectivity, continuous examination of assumptions, and questioning current practices and perspectives.     

Heat tolerance may determine activity time in coprophagic beetle species (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae)

Although reports have documented loss of species diversity and ecological services caused by stressful temperature changes that result from climate change, some species cope through behavioral compensation. As temperatures and magnitudes of temperature extremes increase, animals should compensate to maintain fitness (such as through temporary behavioral shifts in activity times). Appropriate timing of activity helps avoid competition across species. Although coprophagic dung beetles exhibit species-specific temporal activity times, it is unknown whether temperature drives evolution of these species-specific temporal activity times. Using nine dung beetle species (three each of diurnal, crepuscular, and nocturnal species), we explored differences in heat stress tolerance measured as critical thermal maxima (CT_max; the highest temperature allowing activity) and heat knockdown time (HKDT; survival time under acute heat stress) across these species, and examined the results using a phylogenetically informed approach. Our results showed that day-active species had significantly higher CT_max (diurnal > crepuscular = nocturnal species), whereas crepuscular species had higher HKDT (crepuscular > nocturnal > diurnal species). There was no correlation between heat tolerance and body size across species with distinct temporal activity, and no significant phylogenetic constraint for activity. Species with higher CT_max did not necessarily have higher HKDT, which indicates that species may respond differently to diverse heat tolerance metrics. Acute heat tolerance for diurnal beetles indicates that this trait may constrain activity time and, under high acute temperatures with climate change, species may shift activity times in more benign environments. These results contribute to elucidate the evolution of foraging behavior and management of coprophagic beetle ecosystem services under changing environments.     

长江流域实际蒸散发演变趋势及影响因素

长江流域是我国重要的水资源供给区域,流域生态系统的水资源供给不仅服务于流域内部,同时也通过南水北调服务于北方部分地区。实际蒸散发作为地表水文循环重要环节会直接影响到生态系统的水资源供给服务能力。在全球气候变暖与地表环境变化的背景下,分析长江流域实际蒸散发的演变趋势与成因,对于我国水资源供给和生态安全的保障有着重要的意义。在对比GLEAM_v3.2a、MOD16、GLDAS_Noah2、ERA_Interim四种常用蒸散发数据集精度的基础上,选择精度最优的GLEAM_v3.2a数据集,通过分段线性拟合、逐步回归和相关性分析了1981-2017年间长江流域地表实际蒸散发演变趋势和影响因素。结果表明：（1）长江流域实际蒸散发的演变具有明显的阶段性,1981-1997年为不显著下降阶段,下降速率为-0.02 mm/a,下降区域主要分布在长江流域西北和东部部分子流域,1998-2017年为全流域显著上升阶段,上升速率为1.94 mm/a;（2）日照时数下降速率减缓、植被指数增加速率升高是长江流域实际蒸散发阶段性变化的主要原因,气温突增、风速回升在长江流域实际蒸散发的长期增加趋势中也起到了重要的正向作用;（3）1998-2017年间,长江流域生态系统水资源供给服务量在实际蒸散发显著增加的影响下有所下降,流域西部地区下降趋势明显,旱情加剧;（4）建议在长江流域西部干旱地区优先加强对本地原生林的保护,同时在生态修复工程中选择针叶乔木等蒸腾能力弱的树种,以缓解旱情加剧的趋势。     

A winner in the Anthropocene: changing host plant distribution explains geographical range expansion in the gulf fritillary butterfly

1. The changing climate is altering species distributions with consequences for population dynamics, resulting in winners and losers in the Anthropocene. 2. Agraulis vanillae, the gulf fritillary butterfly, has expanded its range in the past 100 years in the western U.S.A. Time series analysis is combined with species distribution modelling to investigate factors limiting the distribution of A. vanillae and to predict future shifts under warming scenarios. 3. Time series analyses from the western U.S.A. show that urban development has a positive association with year of colonisation (the host plant Passiflora is an ornamental in gardens). Colonisation was also associated positively and to a lesser extent with winter maximum temperatures, whereas a negative impact of minimum temperatures and precipitation was apparent on population growth rates after establishment. 4. Species distribution models vary by region. In the eastern U.S.A., the butterfly is primarily limited by minimum temperatures in the winter and host availability later in the season. Eastern U.S. projected expansion broadly follows the expectation of poleward distributional shifts, especially for the butterfly's maximum annual extent. Western U.S. distributions are limited by the host plant, which in turn is dependent on urban centres. Projected western U.S. expansion is not limited to a single direction and is driven by urban centres becoming more suitable for the host plant. 5. These results demonstrate the value of combining time series with spatial modelling, at the same time as incorporating biotic interactions, aiming to understand and predict shifting geographical ranges in the Anthropocene.     

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long‐lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest‐dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate‐induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate‐induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process‐based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid‐ to low‐elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning.