Identifying groundwater‐fed climate refugia in remote arid regions with citizen science and isotope hydrology

1. Groundwater and surface water‐fed systems act as biodiversity hotspots and ecological refuges and evolutionary refugia in arid regions. Groundwater‐dominated systems are sustained by underground aquifers that are recharged by rain that has fallen in the distant past, while surface water‐dominated systems are fed by recent local rain or floods. Some waterbodies are fed by a mixture of these sources. Perennial, groundwater‐dominated systems will act as refuges and refugia under future rainfall declines associated with global warming. We sought to identify climate refugia, based on groundwater dominance, by using isotope hydrology to characterise water samples collected by citizen scientists across arid central Australia.
2. There is a linear relationship between hydrogen isotopes (²H/¹H, δ²H) and oxygen isotopes (¹⁸O/¹⁶O, δ¹⁸O) in rainfall. This relationship is known as the meteoric water line (MWL). By comparing our samples with the Australian MWL, and developing a local evaporation line, we were able to test the hypotheses that groundwater‐dominated systems will follow the Australian MWL while temporary systems follow the local evaporation line, and, accordingly, distinguish between groundwater and surface water‐dominated systems. The isotopic composition of samples collected over a 36‐month period was determined using isotope ratio infrared spectrometry. The electrical conductivity of each sample was recorded to determine where freshwater is available for biota within this arid region.
3. Over 240 water samples were collected from 62 waterbodies and seven bores (groundwater wells) spanning an area of more than 250,000 km². Approximately 75% of the samples were collected by citizen scientists and 25% by research scientists.
4. Twenty groundwater‐dominated waterbodies, characterised by a small range of δ²H and δ¹⁸O values (c. ?55 to ?20‰ and c. ?9 to ?3‰, respectively) clustered around the long‐term mean composition of rainfall (δ²H = ?37.5‰, δ¹⁸O = ?6.4‰), were identified as future evolutionary refugia. These sites are likely to contain water through the most severe of droughts and will be critically important for the persistence of water‐dependent species.
5. Based on their isotopic composition, we identified 45 waterbodies (rockholes/waterholes) as temporary or ephemeral (δ²H c. ?40 to ?100‰ and δ¹⁸O c. ?4 to +25‰), that is, with no evidence of groundwater inflow. These, together with waterbodies supported by a mix of groundwater and surface water, can act as stepping stones and form part of the aquatic mosaic that is critical to supporting species in arid regions. Over two‐thirds of the waterholes sampled were very fresh (electrical conductivity <0.8 mS/cm), indicating that they provide the freshwater needed to support much of the regional aquatic and terrestrial fauna.
6. All evolutionary refugia are located within protected areas (i.e. national parks or Indigenous Protected Areas), but some are subject to the impacts of feral animal species and invasive plants. Our findings indicate where control programmes and restoration actions can be prioritised to support biodiversity conservation and climate change adaptation. Our approach, combining citizen science and isotope hydrology, can be used to identify future refugia in other remote and arid regions where water scarcity is likely to increase under global climate change.

     

Continental‐scale syntheses of Australian pyromes – misclassification of south‐western eucalypt woodlands misinforms management

Global and continental‐scale analysis of ecological phenomena can offer important insights through the identification of patterns and associations not detectable at smaller scales. However, using proxies for ecological phenomena, such as vegetation mapping for spatially projecting fire regime niches and post‐fire plant responses, require critical examination of predictions to determine utility. Using local studies in south‐western Australia, we demonstrate that while this approach has been largely successful in mallee woodland and shrubland, it has failed in eucalypt woodland, with the consequence that values for a range of fire‐related parameters from the continent‐wide approaches, if adopted in informing management, would result in undesirable conservation outcomes for the world's largest extant temperate woodland.     

Climate change vulnerability for species—Assessing the assessments

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision‐making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate‐threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend‐based rather than purely trait‐based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.     

Climate change‐induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China

Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.     

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long‐term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands

Species occurrence is influenced by a range of factors including habitat attributes, climate, weather, and human landscape modification. These drivers are likely to interact, but their effects are frequently quantified independently. Here, we report the results of a 13‐year study of temperate woodland birds in south‐eastern Australia to quantify how different‐sized birds respond to the interacting effects of: (a) short‐term weather (rainfall and temperature in the 12 months preceding our surveys), (b) long‐term climate (average rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures over the period 1970–2014), and (c) broad structural forms of vegetation (old‐growth woodland, regrowth woodland, and restoration plantings). We uncovered significant interactions between bird body size, vegetation type, climate, and weather. High short‐term rainfall was associated with decreased occurrence of large birds in old‐growth and regrowth woodland, but not in restoration plantings. Conversely, small bird occurrence peaked in wet years, but this effect was most pronounced in locations with a history of high rainfall, and was actually reversed (peak occurrence in dry years) in restoration plantings in dry climates. The occurrence of small birds was depressed—and large birds elevated—in hot years, except in restoration plantings which supported few large birds under these circumstances. Our investigation suggests that different mechanisms may underpin contrasting responses of small and large birds to the interacting effects of climate, weather, and vegetation type. A diversity of vegetation cover is needed across a landscape to promote the occurrence of different‐sized bird species in agriculture‐dominated landscapes, particularly under variable weather conditions. Climate change is predicted to lead to widespread drying of our study region, and restoration plantings—especially currently climatically wet areas—may become critically important for conserving bird species, particularly small‐bodied taxa.     

The ‘making of’ the Mulligans Flat – Goorooyarroo experimental restoration project

What happens when park managers and ecological researchers join forces to build an evidence‐based approach to restoring a nature reserve? This project shows how a spirit of cooperation and inventiveness overcome a range of challenges at one of the National Capital region’s most valuable examples of critically endangered box‐gum grassy woodland.     

Stability in a changing world – palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years

Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts.     

Large‐scale,long‐term ecosystem monitoring: Interview with David Lindenmayer

David Lindenmayer leads six large‐scale, long‐term research programmes in south‐eastern Australia to help conserve biodiversity in restored areas on farmland as well as conservation in reserves, national parks, wood production forests and plantations. What makes this award‐winning researcher tick and how is the research influencing biodiversity management and policy?     

Mesocosm experiments reveal the direction of groundwater–surface water exchange alters the hyporheic refuge capacity under warming scenarios

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Approaches for inclusion of forest carbon cycle in life cycle assessment – a review

Forests are a significant pool of terrestrial carbon. A key feature related to forest biomass harvesting and use is the typical time difference between carbon release into and sequestration from the atmosphere. Traditionally, the use of sustainably grown biomass has been considered as carbon neutral in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies. However, various approaches to account for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks of forest biomass acquisition and use have also been developed and applied, resulting in different conclusions on climate impacts of forest products. The aim of this study is to summarize, clarify, and assess the suitability of these approaches for LCA. A literature review is carried out, and the results are analyzed through an assessment framework. The different approaches are reviewed through their approach to the definition of reference land‐use situation, consideration of time frame and timing of carbon emissions and sequestration, substitution credits, and indicators applied to measure climate impacts. On the basis of the review, it is concluded that, to account for GHG emissions and the related climate impacts objectively, biomass carbon stored in the products and the timing of sinks and emissions should be taken into account in LCA. The reference situation for forest land use has to be defined appropriately, describing the development in the absence of the studied system. We suggest the use of some climate impact indicator that takes the timing of the emissions and sinks into consideration and enables the use of different time frames. If substitution credits are considered, they need to be transparently presented in the results. Instead of carbon stock values taken from the literature, the use of dynamic forest models is recommended.     

Northern hemisphere photosynthetic trends 1982–99

We examined trends in the averaged May–September AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 1999 for the northern hemisphere. NDVI is closely related to the amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation; hence, trends in NDVI reflect trends in photosynthetic activity of land‐surface vegetation. Linear and nonlinear trend analysis techniques were applied to four differently processed and corrected Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) NDVI data sets. The results were compared in order to evaluate the effects of trends in NDVI unrelated to vegetation activity. We consistently found significant positive trends in averaged NDVI for latitude bands above 35°N in all but one data set; this one data set lacked corrections for sensor drift and instrument calibration. An impressive improvement in data quality was achieved by applying calibration and corrections for atmospheric effects. Conservative estimates of the trends over the 1982–99 period range from 0.0015 to 0.0045 NDVI units year^?1 for global latitude bands from 35 to 75°N, with trends generally higher in the 1990s than in the 1980s; trends in NDVI were larger than trends explained by artefacts. In the 1980s, North American and Eurasian trends were roughly comparable, whereas in the 1990s the North American trends were generally higher. A pixel‐level analysis shows the trends to be widespread, with large areas of Canada, Europe and northern Asia experiencing significant positive increases across all vegetated landcovers.     

Treeline form – a potential key to understanding treeline dynamics

Aim Treelines occur globally within a narrow range of mean growing season temperatures, suggesting that low‐temperature growth limitation determines the position of the treeline. However, treelines also exhibit features that indicate that other mechanisms, such as biomass loss not resulting in mortality (dieback) and mortality, determine treeline position and dynamics. Debate regarding the mechanisms controlling treeline position and dynamics may be resolved by identifying the mechanisms controlling prominent treeline spatial patterns (or ‘form’) such as the spatial structure of the transition from closed forest to the tree limit. Recent treeline studies world‐wide have confirmed a close link between form and dynamics. Location The concepts presented refer to alpine treelines globally. Methods In this review, we describe how varying dominance of three general ‘first‐level’ mechanisms (tree performance: growth limitation, seedling mortality and dieback) result in different treeline forms, what ‘second‐level’ mechanisms (stresses, e.g. freezing damage, photoinhibition) may underlie these general mechanisms, and how they are modulated by interactions with neighbours (‘third‐level’ mechanisms). This hierarchy of mechanisms should facilitate discussions about treeline formation and dynamics. Results We distinguish four primary treeline forms: diffuse, abrupt, island and krummholz. Growth limitation is dominant only at the diffuse treeline, which is the form that has most frequently responded as expected to growing‐season warming, whereas the other forms are controlled by dieback and seedling mortality and are relatively unresponsive. Main conclusions Treeline form provides a means for explaining the current variability in treeline position and dynamics and for exploring the general mechanisms controlling the responses of treelines to climatic change. Form indicates the relative dependence of tree performance on various aspects of the external climate (especially summer warmth versus winter stressors) and on internal feedbacks, thus allowing inferences on the type as well as strength of climate‐change responses.     

Bats are Not Birds – Different Responses to Human Land‐use on a Tropical Mountain

Land‐use intensification has consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, with various taxonomic groups differing widely in their sensitivity. As land‐use intensification alters habitat structure and resource availability, both factors may contribute to explaining differences in animal species diversity. Within the local animal assemblages the flying vertebrates, bats and birds, provide important and partly complementary ecosystem functions. We tested how bats and birds respond to land‐use intensification and compared abundance, species richness, and community composition across a land‐use gradient including forest, traditional agroforests (home garden), coffee plantations and grasslands on Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Furthermore, we asked how sensitive different habitat and feeding guilds of bats and birds react to land‐use intensification and the associated alterations in vegetation structure and food resource availability. In contrast to our expectations, land‐use intensification had no negative effect on species richness and abundance of all birds and bats. However, some habitat and feeding guilds, in particular forest specialist and frugivorous birds, were highly sensitive to land‐use intensification. Although the habitat guilds of both, birds and bats, depended on a certain degree of vegetation structure, total bat and bird abundance was mediated primarily by the availability of the respective food resources. Even though the highly structured southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro are able to maintain diverse bat and bird assemblages, the sensitivity of avian forest specialists against land‐use intensification and the dependence of the bat and bird habitat guilds on a certain vegetation structure demonstrate that conservation plans should place special emphasis on these guilds.     

Archival photographs show no climate-induced changes in woody vegetation in the Sudan, 1943–1994*

An archive of satellite and aircraft photographs of the western Sudan showed no longterm (1943–1994) trends in the abundance of trees despite several decades of recent drought in this region. These data extend the extant historical record of vegetation change in the African Sahel, where recent fluctuations in vegetation greenness have been monitored with the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer since 1980. Despite substantial population turnover, woody vegetation is not yet indicative of the recent climate changes in this region.     

Extreme weather conditions correspond with localised vegetation death at Cradle Mountain,Tasmania

A chance observation of a drought‐related plant mortality event in early 2014 in a normally wet and cool alpine area was matched with local weather data providing a unique insight into this event. The observed plant death was largely indiscriminate in areas that were topographically predisposed to being susceptible to drought. The weather conditions surrounding this event included 5 weeks with very little rain, an extreme heatwave and subsequent brief periods where warm temperatures and dry air combined to produce highly evaporative conditions. Extreme weather conditions such as this are expected to occur with increasing frequency as a result of climate change. Observing and reporting on real‐world examples of how extreme weather events affect native vegetation is integral to improved climate change risk assessment and to inform future management actions.