基于长时间序列landsat数据的科尔沁沙地土地利用演变分析

以科尔沁沙地沙丘—草甸过渡带区域主要土地覆被类型为研究对象,以1987—2017年多时相Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像解译分类为基础,参考生态学植被演替研究方法,系统分析研究区30年来的土地利用/覆被动态演变规律,研究结果表明:（1）决策树法在复杂下垫面不同覆被类型的同步识别效果较好,所有影像分类精度均达到88%以上,分类效果较好,其中2017年分类精度最高为95.24%,达到了分类研究的要求;（2）研究区存在着\"半灌丛-草甸地-灌丛\"的植被结构特征,且整体表现为\"南进北退\"的变化趋势。结合土地利用动态度分析结果表明人类活动干涉下,研究区整体上遵循了半干旱区植被条件改善的一般规律,侧面反映该研究区域生态环境的持续不稳定性和脆弱性;（3）研究区覆被类型发生变化的总面积达到2623.59 hm²,总变化强度为63.76%。其中正向演替的比例为52.61%,以半灌丛面积的持续减小与沙地草甸面积的持续扩张为主要变化特征。但同时,半灌丛转为沙地的面积为184.95 hm²,表明以放牧为主的研究区同时发生着局部的逆行演变;（4）质心迁移结果反映了1987—2017年间,除人为影响较大的林地、草地以及耕地向北迁移外,其他植被类型的质心都有很明显的南迁,主要植被类型重心迁移距离依次由大到小为耕地>半灌丛>灌丛>沙地草甸>湿地草甸>林地。研究通过记录科尔沁沙地连续扩展的时空模式,展示了遥感—生态和时间序列影像在30 m分辨率下跟踪土地利用/覆被变化的潜力,为提高干旱半干旱区土地利用情况的动态监测效率,开展土地利用/覆被动态演变研究提供参考。     

权衡生态保护与经济发展的土地利用多情景模拟

从土地利用视角切入,首先对龙门山过渡带的生态服务功能重要性与生态脆弱性进行了综合评价,采用自然断点法将生态服务功能重要性与脆弱性计算值进行分级,以此为基础结合研究区现状已划定生态保护区,划分生态综合评价等级为Ⅴ级的区域为规划约束情景下土地利用限制转换区,划分生态综合评价等级为Ⅳ级、Ⅴ级的区域为生态保护情景下土地利用限制转换区。设置自然发展情景研究区土地利用规律保持2010-2015年不变,规划约束情景在自然发展情景基础上将耕地、林地与水域、草地向建设用地转化的概率分别降低30%、20%与10%,生态保护情景在自然发展情景基础上将耕地向建设用地转化概率降低30%并补充于耕地向林地转化之上,将林地、草地向建设用地转化的概率降低50%。基于多情景土地利用模拟结果,提取待权衡用地斑块,划定生态综合评价结果Ⅴ级、坡度25°、地方林线海拔3500m为判定阈值,结合现状地类、主体功能区划定等因素进行多重逻辑判定,将多情景模拟结果进行集成,权衡判定后的集成方案既能很好地保护生态环境,又能较好兼顾研究区经济发展。     

The Role of Ecotones in Emerging Infectious Diseases

Recognition of the significance of the boundary between ecological systems, often referred to as the ecotone, has a long history in the ecological sciences and in zoonotic disease research. More recent research in landscape ecology has produced an expanded view of ecotones and elaboration of their characteristics and functions in ecosystems. Parallel research on emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and the causes of increased rates of pathogen transmission, spread, and adaptation suggests a correspondence between ecotonal processes and the ecological and evolutionary processes responsible for zoonotic and vector-borne emerging infections. A review of the literature suggests that ecotones play a role in a number of the most important EIDs. Yet these are the only diseases for which specific landscape ecological information exists in the literature or disease reports. However, the similar disease ecologies of these with about half of the approximately 130 zoonotic EIDs suggests ecotones, particularly their anthropogenic origination or modification, may be generally associated with ecotones and the global trend of increasing EIDs.     

千岛湖生态保护与建设对景观格局的影响研究

生态保护和生态建设过程对景观格局产生影响并使之发生变化,这种变化又会影响景观的生态过程。应用3s技术和景观指数分析了39年(1964-2003年)内千岛湖库区土地利用和土地覆盖格局的变化。结果显示,斑块总数和景观破碎度基本保持不变,但是各斑块类型的斑块数量、面积和优势度变化非常显著。最优势斑块类型由荒山(占陆地面积的47．44％)演变为马尾松( Pinus massoniana)林(占陆地面积的52．8l％),研究区域内森林植被覆盖率增加。研究还发现景观多样性指数略微下降。景观多样性是对土地利用和覆盖类型丰富度和均匀度的概要度量,并不一定总是和景观功能呈正相关关系。上述变化归因于多项生态保护措施的实施使得自然演替得以实现。景观格局的优化使生态系统的生态功能得到提高,包括生境恢复、生物多样性增加、水土流失减少。森林植被恢复以后,马尾松林斑块的单一化趋势应在今后的生物多样性保护、生态规划和可持续发展中得到重视。     

Beyond Population and Environment: Household Demographic Life Cycles and Land Use Allocation Among Small Farms in the Amazon

Most research featuring demographic factors in environmental change has focused on processes operating at the level of national or global populations. This paper focuses on household-level demographic life cycles among colonists in the Amazon, and evaluates the impacts on land use allocation. The analysis goes beyond prior research by including a broader suite of demographic variables, and by simultaneously assessing their impacts on multiple land uses with different economic and ecological implications. We estimate a system of structural equations that accounts for endogeneity among land uses, and the findings indicate stronger demographic effects than previous work. These findings bear implications for modeling land use, and the place of demography in environmental research.

Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Biocomplexity as an Interdisciplinary Paradigm

Understanding factors responsible for reemergence of diseases believed to have been controlled and outbreaks of previously unknown infectious diseases is one of the most difficult scientific problems facing society today. Significant knowledge gaps exist for even the most studied emerging infectious diseases. Coupled with failures in the response to the resurgence of infectious diseases, this lack of information is embedded in a simplistic view of pathogens and disconnected from a social and ecological context, and assumes a linear response of pathogens to environmental change. In fact, the natural reservoirs and transmission rates of most emerging infectious diseases primarily are affected by environmental factors, such as seasonality or meteorological events, typically producing nonlinear responses that are inherently unpredictable. A more realistic view of emerging infectious diseases requires a holistic perspective that incorporates social as well as physical, chemical, and biological dimensions of our planet’s systems. The notion of biocomplexity captures this depth and richness, and most importantly, the interactions of human and natural systems. This article provides a brief review and a synthesis of interdisciplinary approaches and insights employing the biocomplexity paradigm and offers a social–ecological approach for addressing and garnering an improved understanding of emerging infectious diseases. Drawing on findings from studies of cholera and other examples of emerging waterborne, zoonotic, and vectorborne diseases, a “blueprint” for the proposed interdisciplinary research framework is offered which integrates biological processes from the molecular level to that of communities and regional systems, incorporating public health infrastructure and climate aspects.     

土地利用与土地覆盖变化对生态系统的影响

随着人口的增长和人类社会的发展, 土地利用与土地覆盖变化已经是不可避免。土地利用与土地覆盖变化不仅对生态系统的要素、结构和功能产生深远的影响, 也会对全球变化产生反馈作用。针对土地利用与土地覆盖变化的过程、驱动机制以及在各个方面可能产生的生态环境效应的科学研究已经全面开展。该文综述了土地利用与土地覆盖变化对气候、土壤、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及区域生态环境等影响方面的研究进展, 并提出了相关研究的前沿方向展望。随着新技术的不断发展, 学者们将更多地侧重预测未来全球变化背景下的土地利用与土地覆盖变化趋势、合理性以及适应性, 为可持续发展提供基础资料和理论依据。     

Regression Techniques for Examining Land Use/Cover Change: A Case Study of a Mediterranean Landscape

In many areas of the northern Mediterranean Basin the abundance of forest and scrubland vegetation is increasing, commensurate with decreases in agricultural land use(s). Much of the land use/cover change (LUCC) in this region is associated with the marginalization of traditional agricultural practices due to ongoing socioeconomic shifts and subsequent ecological change. Regression-based models of LUCC have two purposes: (i) to aid explanation of the processes driving change and/or (ii) spatial projection of the changes themselves. The independent variables contained in the single ‘best’ regression model (that is, that which minimizes variation in the dependent variable) cannot be inferred as providing the strongest causal relationship with the dependent variable. Here, we examine the utility of hierarchical partitioning and multinomial regression models for, respectively, explanation and prediction of LUCC in EU Special Protection Area 56, ‘Encinares del río Alberche y Cofio’ (SPA 56) near Madrid, Spain. Hierarchical partitioning estimates the contribution of regression model variables, both independently and in conjunction with other variables in a model, to the total variance explained by that model and is a tool to isolate important causal variables. By using hierarchical partitioning we find that the combined effects of factors driving land cover transitions varies with land cover classification, with a coarser classification reducing explained variance in LUCC. We use multinomial logistic regression models solely for projecting change, finding that accuracies of maps produced vary by land cover classification and are influenced by differing spatial resolutions of socioeconomic and biophysical data. When examining LUCC in human-dominated landscapes such as those of the Mediterranean Basin, the availability and analysis of spatial data at scales that match causal processes is vital to the performance of the statistical modelling techniques used here.     

An Assessment of Trends in the Extent of Swidden in Southeast Asia

Swidden systems consisting of temporarily cultivated land and associated fallows often do not appear on land use maps or in statistical records. This is partly due to the fact that swidden is a diverse and dynamic land use system that is difficult to map and partly because of the practice of grouping land covers associated with swidden systems into land use or land cover categories that are not self-evidently linked to swiddening. Additionally, in many parts of Southeast Asia swidden systems have changed or are in the process of changing into other land use systems. This paper assesses the extent of swidden on the basis of regional and national sources for nine countries, and determines the pattern of changes of swidden on the basis of 151 cases culled from 67 articles. Findings include (1) a majority of the cases document swidden being replaced by other forms of agriculture or by other livelihood systems; (2) in cases where swiddening is still practiced, fallow lengths are usually, but not always, shorter; and (3) shortened fallow length does not necessarily indicate a trend away from swidden since it is observed that short fallow swidden is sometimes maintained along with other more intensive farming practices and not completely abandoned. The paper concludes that there is a surprising lack of conclusive data on the extent of swidden in Southeast Asia. In order to remedy this, methods are reviewed that may lead to more precise future assessments.     

天津于桥水库流域典型景观类型时空演变分析

流域典型景观类型变化影响着流域生态水文过程,从而也关乎流域水环境安全。本研究以天津于桥水库流域为例,基于5期不同的卫星影像,利用轨迹分析及景观格局指数等方法,研究流域土地利用变化轨迹模型以及研究时间段内典型景观类型的空间分布格局及近30年的演变过程。结果表明:1984—2013年于桥水库流域景观格局变化显著,城镇、园地和草地增加明显,林地、耕地减少显著,林地面积减幅达50%;30年来流域土地利用变化面积占整个流域面积的63.11%,其中,人为因素引起的变化轨迹占所有变化轨迹的96.65%,变化类型主要包括耕地-城镇、林地-耕地/园地、林地-草地等的转化,变化轨迹主要分布于北部丘陵与北部平原等地区;典型景观类型的变化趋势与整个流域变化趋势基本一致,各景观类型破碎化程度总体呈上升趋势,连通性降低,景观多样性缓慢上升,景观格局异质性变高。     

青海三江源区高寒植被地表反照率变化及其辐射温度效应

地表反照率是影响地表辐射收支与能量平衡的重要地表物理参数,是区域和全球气候变化研究中的一个关键要素。以三江源为案例区,基于2001—2018年生长季(6—8月)中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)地表反照率(MCD43C3)产品,以及同期气候和植被指数数据,应用随机森林回归算法量化植被和气候对地表反照率时空变化的影响分析了土地利用/覆被变化导致的地表辐射特性参数(地表反照率)的改变引起的辐射温度效应。结果表明：三江源区域生长季地表反照率在空间上呈自东南向西北递增的特征,其均值为(0.163±0.027),集中分布在0.12—0.18。长江源园区、黄河源园区以及澜沧江源园区地表反照率差异较大,分别是(0.177±0.036)、(0.153±0.037)和(0.156±0.002)。从年际变化来看,研究区地表反照率以每10年(0.152±0.763)%速率不显著下降(P=0.47),但其变化趋势存在明显空间分异,其中显著减少(增加)的区域占8.4%(1.9%),长江源园区、黄河源园区以及澜沧江源园区以不同速率下降,分别为每10年下降(0.078±0.900)%、(0.215±0.740)%、(...     

城市碳代谢过程研究进展

碳代谢过程分析是城市代谢研究的重要环节,而通过土地利用/覆盖的空间调整优化城市碳代谢过程已成为区域可持续发展的关键。利用城市代谢思想,本文综述了城市碳代谢过程核算、碳代谢网络模拟、碳代谢过程与土地利用/覆盖变化关系分析、碳代谢空间格局演替等方面的内容,并指出了当前研究中存在着空间属性表达缺乏、核算/模拟结果较难直接应用于实践调控、自然和社会经济代谢过程难以并重考虑等问题。在此基础上,提出了此领域未来发展预期:(1)基于土地流转,将碳排放/碳吸收垂向流映射到碳存量变化的水平流,以\"存量\"变化推导出网络\"流量\"分布,实现节点、流互动关系的空间表达,构建时空维度碳代谢网络模型;(2)强调自然节点在城市碳代谢网络中的重要作用,形成社会经济节点与自然节点并重的生态网络模型,有效服务于城市规划及设计。     

内蒙古土地利用变化对生态系统防风固沙功能的影响

土壤风蚀是内蒙古的严重环境问题之一。在对内蒙古2000年到2010年的土地利用变化特征进行分析的基础上,分析了内蒙古土地利用变化的主要特征,以RWEQ模型估算了内蒙古2000年和2010年的固沙物质量,采用空间统计分析评估了固沙功能对土地利用变化的响应,结果表明:(1)2000—2010年土地利用变化以城镇高速发展、草地和湿地面积锐减、林地灌丛有所恢复以及荒漠环境改善为主要特征。(2)2000—2010的十年间内蒙古固沙物质总量增长了17.75%,草地总面积虽有所降低,但是部分区域草地覆盖度的上升增强了草地固沙能力,而林地的固沙物质量则由于农田、草地改为林地的短期内地表保护力的下降而有所降低。(3)十年间农田退耕还草、荒漠环境的改善、草地质量提高等土地利用变化方式有益于生态环境质量的提高,使生态防风固沙功能得以增强,造成固沙物质量提高了约0.25亿t。(4)农田开垦、城镇发展、荒漠化发展、湿地萎缩以及草地的退化等土地利用变化会使生态环境质量降低,生态系统防风固沙功能下降,累计造成的固沙物质量的减少总量约为0.19亿t。从十年间综合来看,内蒙古的土地利用变化对区域固沙功能有一定的增强作用,但是尚存在城镇发展过快、草地湿地转化压力过大、草地退化、荒漠化对固沙功能的弱化问题,需要在今后的土地利用规划和管理工作中予以改进以进一步增强区域固沙功能,构建北方地区生态安全屏障。