Environmental Controls of Primary Production in Agricultural Systems of the Argentine Pampas

We studied the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of wheat crops in the Argentine Pampas. Our specific objectives were to determine (a) the response of ANPP to changes in water availability (b) the regional patterns of ANPP and (c) the interannual variability and environmental controls of ANPP. We used ground and satellite data to address these questions. Wheat ANPP was calculated as the ratio between grain yield and harvest index. We developed a simple model that took into account environmental and genetic improvement effects upon harvest index. We used the normalized difference vegetational index (NDVI) as a surrogate for ANPP at the county level. Straight-line regression models were fitted to single-year and average values of ANPP and precipitation to derive temporal and spatial models for wheat. For grasslands, we used spatial and temporal models already published. At any given site, there was no difference between modeled wheat and grassland average ANPP. The response of ANPP to changes in interannual water availability decreased along the precipitation gradient when vegetation structure (for example, species composition, density, and total cover) was held constant (wheat crops). Wheat ANPP and total production variability, estimated from remotely sensed data, decreased as mean annual precipitation (MAP) increased. The percentage of soils without drainage problems was the variable that explained most of the wheat ANPP spatial variability as shown by stepwise linear regression. Precipitation variability accounted for 49% of wheat ANPP variability. Remotely sensed estimates of ANPP variability showed lower and wheat ANPP higher temporal variability than annual precipitation.     

Primary Productivity and Precipitation-Use Efficiency in Temperate Grassland in the Loess Plateau of China

Clarifying spatial variations in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) of grasslands is critical for effective prediction of the response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water cycle to future climate change. Though the combination use of remote sensing products and in situ ANPP measurements, we quantified the effects of climatic [mean annual precipitation (MAP) and precipitation seasonal distribution (PSD)], biotic [leaf area index (LAI)] and abiotic [slope gradient, aspect, soil water storage (SWS) and other soil physical properties] factors on the spatial variations in ANPP and PUE across different grassland types (i.e., meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe) in the Loess Plateau. Based on the study, ANPP increased exponentially with MAP for the entire temperate grassland; suggesting that PUE increased with increasing MAP. Also PSD had a significant effect on ANPP and PUE; where more even PSD favored higher ANPP and PUE. Then MAP, more than PSD, explained spatial variations in typical steppe and desert steppe. However, PSD was the dominant driving factor of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe. This suggested that in terms of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe, change in PSD due to climate change was more important than that in total annual precipitation. LAI explained 78% of spatial PUE in the entire Loess Plateau temperate grassland. As such, LAI was the primary driving factor of spatial variations in PUE. Although the effect of SWS on ANPP and PUE was significant, it was nonetheless less than that of precipitation and vegetation. We therefore concluded that changes in vegetation structure and consequently in LAI and/or altered pattern of seasonal distribution of rainfall due to global climate change could significantly influence ecosystem carbon and water cycle in temperate grasslands.     

荒漠草原与典型草原NPP、碳积累对不同降雨年份和利用方式的响应

不同草原利用方式正在影响着内蒙古的草原生态系统,而且在未来降水空间格局变化的背景下,它们共同决定了生态系统植被类型、净初级生产力(NPP)和生态系统碳积累。选取内蒙古中部两个重要的草地类型:荒漠草原和典型草原,研究不同草原利用方式(围栏禁牧、划区轮牧、割草、自由放牧)植物群落在降雨量不同的两个生长季节地上(ANPP)、地下净初级生产力(BNPP)的变化,同时也评估了植物群落的碳积累,研究结果表明:1)在降雨量亏缺年份,与围封相比,荒漠草原自由放牧区ANPP、BNPP及碳积累分别下降了57.1%、51.7%和56.0%,而典型草原自由放牧区分别下降了18.4%、25.1%和17.9%。2)在降雨量充足年份,与围封相比,荒漠草原划区轮牧区ANPP、BNPP以及碳积累分别增加了18.2%、9.8%和21.9%,而典型草原各处理下围封禁牧区ANPP仍是最高;3)两种草地类型下,降雨量对自由放牧的调控作用高于其它草地利用方式;4)荒漠草原ANPP在丰雨年是欠雨年的2倍,而典型草原仅增加了79.0%,降雨量对荒漠草原生产力的季节调控作用远高于典型草原。在未来全球气候变暖和降水格局变化的情况下,荒漠草原降雨量是影响荒漠植物群落NPP和碳积累的主导因子。     

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Production Can Be Used to Detect State Change Across an Arid Landscape

Methods to detect and quantify shifts in the state of ecosystems are increasingly important as global change drivers push more systems toward thresholds of change. Temporal relationships between precipitation and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) have been studied extensively in arid and semiarid ecosystems, but rarely has spatial variation in these relationships been investigated at a landscape scale, and rarely has such information been viewed as a resource for mapping the distribution of different ecological states. We examined the broad-scale effects of a shift from grassland to shrubland states on spatiotemporal patterns of remotely sensed ANPP proxies in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. We found that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), when averaged across an eight-year period, did not vary significantly between these states, despite changes in ecosystem attributes likely to influence water availability to plants. In contrast, temporal relationships between precipitation and time-integrated NDVI (NDVI-I) modeled on a per-pixel basis were sensitive to spatial variation in shrub canopy cover, a key attribute differentiating ecological states in the region. The slope of the relationship between annual NDVI-I and 2-year cumulative precipitation was negatively related to, and accounted for 71% of variation in, shrub canopy cover estimated at validation sites using high spatial resolution satellite imagery. These results suggest that remote sensing studies of temporal precipitation–NDVI relationships may be useful for deriving shrub canopy cover estimates in the region, as well as for mapping other ecological state changes characterized by shifts in long-term ANPP, plant functional type dominance, or both.     

Relative effects of climate variation and human activities on grassland dynamics in Africa from 2000 to 2015

Grassland plays a key role in socioeconomic development and environmental protection in Africa. Climate variation and human activities are two main drivers of grassland dynamics. Quantitatively assessing the contributions of these two factors and understanding the driving mechanisms are important in ecosystem adaptation and management. In this research, the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland dynamics in Africa during 2000–2015 were analyzed based on the net primary productivity (NPP), M-K test, linear regression analysis, and correlation analysis. In addition, the potential NPP (PNPP), human-induced NPP (HNPP) and actual NPP (ANPP) were employed to establish scenarios to distinguish the relative impacts of climatic and human factors on grassland dynamics. An overall grassland ANPP increase than decrease (62.91% vs 37.09%) was found during 2000–2015. 21.80% of the total grassland area showed increases in ANPP, which was influenced by climate variation, whereas 23.61% were affected by human activities. The ANPP decreases induced by climate variation, human activities and the combination of these two factors occupied 19.31%, 8.39% and 9.39% of the total grassland area, respectively. Therefore, the contributions of climatic and human factors on ANPP increase were almost consistent, while climate variation was the dominated factor on ANPP decrease. In addition, the respective roles of these two factors were quite different in five grassland types. The dynamics of ANPP in closed shrublands, non-woody grasslands, and open shrublands were mainly attributed to the climate variation. Meanwhile, the human-dominated increases in ANPP were observed in woody savannas. Further analysis demonstrated that the increases in African grassland ANPP are likely due to the mitigation of drought and reduction in land use intensity, while the decreases in ANPP were related to unbalance of local hydrothermal condition and overgrazing. This study expects to improve the understanding of the respective contributions of climatic and human factors on grassland dynamics in Africa.     

天山北坡不同海拔梯度山地草原生态系统地上净初级生产力对气候变化及放牧的响应

以天山北坡三工河流域为例,利用改进后的Biome-BGC模型分别模拟了仅气候变化（Clm）、气候变化与放牧联合作用（ClmGra）下研究区不同海拔梯度3种山地草原生态系统（低山干旱草原,LAG;森林草甸草原,FMG;高寒草甸草原,AMG）1959—2009年地上净初级生产力（Aboveground Net Primary Production,ANPP）的动态,并通过假设27种放牧强度情景（0—8 羊/ha）模拟了其ANPP随放牧强度增加的变化趋势。近50年气候变化致使研究区各海拔梯度草原生态系统ANPP整体均呈上升趋势,但在放牧联合作用下,不同草原类型ANPP变化趋势差异显著;放牧导致FMG和AMG的ANPP呈下降态势,分别减少30.0%和33.2%,对比之下,由于1980前较低放牧强度促进了LAG的ANPP,放牧导致其ANPP整体增加1.3%。随着放牧强度增加,LAG的ANPP呈先增后减趋势,且在干旱年份最为显著;而FMG和AMG的ANPP呈显著非线性递减趋势。这些结果表明,近50年气候波动可能有利于中亚干旱区山地草原生态系统生产力的提高,但日益增强的放牧活动导致其净初级生产力显著降低;放牧对FMG与AMG生产力的负面效应随放牧强度增加而增强,但适度放牧可能促进LAG净初级生产力,尤其在干旱年份。     

Regional grassland productivity responses to precipitation during multiyear above‐ and below‐average rainfall periods

There is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of changes in precipitation associated with climate change, and ecosystem responses are also uncertain. Multiyear periods of above‐ and below‐average rainfall may foretell consequences of changes in rainfall regime. We compiled long‐term aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation (PPT) data for eight North American grasslands, and quantified relationships between ANPP and PPT at each site, and in 1–3 year periods of above‐ and below‐average rainfall for mesic, semiarid cool, and semiarid warm grassland types. Our objective was to improve understanding of ANPP dynamics associated with changing climatic conditions by contrasting PPT–ANPP relationships in above‐ and below‐average PPT years to those that occurred during sequences of multiple above‐ and below‐average years. We found differences in PPT–ANPP relationships in above‐ and below‐average years compared to long‐term site averages, and variation in ANPP not explained by PPT totals that likely are attributed to legacy effects. The correlation between ANPP and current‐ and prior‐year conditions changed from year to year throughout multiyear periods, with some legacy effects declining, and new responses emerging. Thus, ANPP in a given year was influenced by sequences of conditions that varied across grassland types and climates. Most importantly, the influence of prior‐year ANPP often increased with the length of multiyear periods, whereas the influence of the amount of current‐year PPT declined. Although the mechanisms by which a directional change in the frequency of above‐ and below‐average years imposes a persistent change in grassland ANPP require further investigation, our results emphasize the importance of legacy effects on productivity for sequences of above‐ vs. below‐average years, and illustrate the utility of long‐term data to examine these patterns.     

Contingent productivity responses to more extreme rainfall regimes across a grassland biome

Climate models predict, and empirical evidence confirms, that more extreme precipitation regimes are occurring in tandem with warmer atmospheric temperatures. These more extreme rainfall patterns are characterized by increased event size separated by longer within season drought periods and represent novel climatic conditions whose consequences for different ecosystem types are largely unknown. Here, we present results from an experiment in which more extreme rainfall patterns were imposed in three native grassland sites in the Central Plains Region of North America, USA. Along this 600 km precipitation–productivity gradient, there was strong sensitivity of temperate grasslands to more extreme growing season rainfall regimes, with responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) contingent on mean soil water levels for different grassland types. At the mesic end of the gradient (tallgrass prairie), longer dry intervals between events led to extended periods of below-average soil water content, increased plant water stress and reduced ANPP by 18%. The opposite response occurred at the dry end (semiarid steppe), where a shift to fewer, but larger, events increased periods of above-average soil water content, reduced seasonal plant water stress and resulted in a 30% increase in ANPP. At an intermediate mixed grass prairie site with high plant species richness, ANPP was most sensitive to more extreme rainfall regimes (70% increase). These results highlight the inherent complexity in predicting how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to forecast novel climate conditions as well as the difficulties in extending inferences from single site experiments across biomes. Even with no change in annual precipitation amount, ANPP responses in a relatively uniform physiographic region differed in both magnitude and direction in response to within season changes in rainfall event size/frequency.     

Contrasting Effects of Precipitation Manipulations on Production in Two Sites within the Central Grassland Region, USA

In grassland ecosystems, where soil water most frequently controls ecosystem processes, expected changes in precipitation and temperature may have dramatic effects on ecosystem dynamics. Previous observational studies have reported that aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in grasslands is very sensitive to changes in precipitation. Yet, we lack experimentally based evidence to support these observations. Further, most of the studies have focused solely on ANPP, neglecting belowground production (BNPP). This is an important gap in our knowledge, as BNPP represents 50% or more of total net primary production (NPP) in grasslands. Here, we present results from a 3-year water manipulation experiment (2008–2010) at two sites in the central grassland region of North America, USA. We were successful in changing the soil water content in our treatments, but these changes resulted in different, but significant responses in ANPP and BNPP at our two sites. At the shortgrass steppe, we found that neither NPP nor ANPP were sensitive to treatment precipitation, and although we found BNPP was sensitive to changes in treatment precipitation, the direction of the response varied between years. In contrast, ANPP was very sensitive to treatment precipitation on the mixed-grass prairie, whereas BNPP was insensitive. Based on our finding that two grassland ecosystems showed dramatically different above and belowground production responses to soil water manipulations, we cannot assume that predicted changes in climate will cause similar above- and belowground production responses. Second, our results demonstrated that sites within the same region may differ markedly in the sensitivity of ANPP to changes in growing season precipitation.     

生态系统状态跃变的早期预警信号及检测

生态系统在气候变化和土地利用及人类活动等的影响下其状态会由某一稳态转变到另一稳态。由于环境压力的复杂性、非线性、随机性等特征，往往导致状态转变表现为非线性、突变、跃变等特点。准确界定系统状态跃变的拐点或阈值点存在很大的挑战，而捕捉接近临界拐点前的生态系统结构和属性上的变化特征作为早期预警信号是切实可行的。早期预警信号理论经历理论框架构建、方法确立、机理认知等近半个多世纪的探索，已经由最初的通过仅依赖检测临界点恢复力的速率减慢、方差增加、系统自相关增强等统计学信号过度到更加多样化的检测方法，如检测系统组分属性的变化特征，诊断系统组分各属性之间的关系变化，系统组分的性状变化、系统组分网络结构变化等等，并且试图整合多信号提高预警的精确性。利用来自自然生态系统的长时间高密度数据集和空间代替时间的数据集，基于多度及性状信号的早期预警，结合稳定性、临界恢复力的减速、以及统计参数的指示作用对系统跃变进行早期诊断和预警是预测生态学的主旨。早期预警信号的深入研究不仅能够完善已有理论的不足，同时还能够为生态系统的保护和管理提供切实有效的理论指导。     

Effects of Grazing on Above- vs. Below-Ground Biomass Allocation of Alpine Grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau

Biomass allocation is an essential concept for understanding above- vs. below-ground functions and for predicting the dynamics of community structure and ecosystem service under ongoing climate change. There is rare available knowledge of grazing effects on biomass allocation in multiple zonal alpine grassland types along climatic gradients across the Northern Tibetan Plateau. We collected the peak above- and below-ground biomass (AGB and BGB) values at 106 pairs of well-matched grazed vs. fenced sites during summers of 2010–2013, of which 33 pairs were subject to meadow, 52 to steppe and 21 to desert-steppe. The aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) was represented by the peak AGB while the belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) was estimated from ANPP, the ratio of living vs. dead BGB, and the root turnover rate. Two-ways analyses of variance (ANOVA) and paired samples comparisons with t-test were applied to examine the effects of pasture managements (PMS, i.e., grazed vs. fenced) and zonal grassland types on both ANPP and BNPP. Allometric and isometric allocation hypotheses were also tested between logarithmically transformed ANPP and BNPP using standardized major axis (SMA) analyses across grazed, fenced and overall sites. In our study, a high community-dependency was observed to support the allometric biomass allocation hypothesis, in association with decreased ANPP and a decreasing-to-increasing BNPP proportions with increasing aridity across the Northern Tibetan Plateau. Grazing vs. fencing seemed to have a trivial effect on ANPP compared to the overwhelming influence of different zonal grassland types. Vegetation links above- and below-ground ecological functions through integrated meta-population adaptive strategies to the increasing severity of habitat conditions. Therefore, more detailed studies on functional diversity are essentially to achieve conservation and sustainability goals under ongoing climatic warming and intensifying human influences.     

Desertification alters patterns of aboveground net primary production in Chihuahuan ecosystems

Abstract The Chihuahuan desert of New Mexico, USA, has changed in historical times from semiarid grassland to desert shrublands dominated by Larrea tridentata and Prosopis glandulosa. Similar displacement of perennial grasslands by shrubs typifies desertification in many regions. Such structural vegetation change could alter average values of net primary productivity, as well as spatial and temporal patterns of production. We investigated patterns of aboveground plant biomass and net primary production in five ecosystem types of the Jornada Basin Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Comparisons of shrub‐dominated desertified systems and remnant grass‐dominated systems allowed us to test the prediction that shrublands are more heterogeneous spatially, but less variable over time, than grasslands. We measured aboveground plant biomass and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) by species, three times per year for 10 years, in 15 sites of five ecosystem types (three each in Larrea shrubland, Bouteloua eriopoda grassland, Prosopis dune systems, Flourensia cernua alluvial flats, and grass‐dominated dry lakes or playas). Spatial heterogeneity of biomass at the scale of our measurements was significantly greater in shrub‐dominated systems than in grass‐dominated vegetation. ANPP was homogeneous across space in grass‐dominated systems, and in most growing seasons was significantly more patchy in shrub vegetation. Substantial interannual variability in ANPP complicates comparison of mean values across ecosystem types, but grasslands tended to support higher ANPP values than did shrub‐dominated systems. There were significant interactions between ecosystem type and season. Grasslands demonstrated higher interannual variation than did shrub systems. Desertification has apparently altered the seasonality of productivity in these systems; grasslands were dominated by summer growth, while sites dominated by Larrea or Prosopis tended to have higher spring ANPP. Production was frequently uncorrelated across sites of an ecosystem type, suggesting that factors other than season, regional climate, or dominant vegetation may be significant determinants of actual NPP.     

Are regional precipitation–productivity relationships robust to decadal-scale dry period?

降水-生产力的空间关系是否稳定不变？ 降水是全球陆地生态系统中植被生长和净初级生产力的主要驱动因素。因此,探究降水和生产力关系有助于深入了解气候变化如何改变生态系统功能。降水-生产力的空间关系在全球不同草地上非常相似,但在连续多年气候异常的情况下,这种关系是否会发生变化以及如何变化尚不清楚。本研究利用 利用中国北方温带草地长达10年低于多年平均降水的时期,基于遥感植被指数数据,量化了区域尺度上降水-植被生产力关系在持续多年的干湿期之间将如何变化。结果表明,在连续10年的干期,降水-生产力空间相关性急剧下降,而该空间关系的下降主要是由于不同草原类型对干旱的响应在空间上存在高度的异质性,即不同生态系统对干旱的响应程度存在差异。因此,如果未来气候变化进一步加剧全球草地的干旱,那么基于历史时期(平水期)得到的降水-生产力空间关系推测区域尺度植被生产力可能导致误差。     

Spatial variations in aboveground net primary productivity along a climate gradient in Eurasian temperate grassland: effects of mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution

Concomitant changes of annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution within the context of global climate change have dramatic impacts on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of grassland ecosystems. In this study, combining remote sensing products with in situ measurements of ANPP, we quantified the effects of mean annual precipitation (MAP) and precipitation seasonal distribution (PSD) on the spatial variations in ANPP along a climate gradient in Eurasian temperate grassland. Our results indicated that ANPP increased exponentially with MAP for the entire temperate grassland, but linearly for a specific grassland type, i.e. the desert steppe, typical steppe, and meadow steppe from arid to humid regions. The slope of the linear relationship appeared to be steeper in the more humid meadow steppe than that in the drier typical and desert steppes. PSD also had significant effect on the spatial variations in ANPP. It explained 39.4% of the spatial ANPP for the entire grassland investigated, being comparable with the explanatory power of MAP (40.0%). On the other hand, the relative contribution of PSD and MAP is grassland type specific. MAP exhibited a much stronger explanatory power than PSD for the desert steppe and the meadow steppe at the dry and wet end, respectively. However, PSD was the dominant factor affecting the spatial variation in ANPP for the median typical steppe. Our results imply that altered pattern of PSD due to climate change may be as important as the total amount in terms of effects on ANPP in Eurasian temperate grassland.     

Importance of Seasonality for the Response of a Mesic Temperate Grassland to Increased Precipitation Variability and Warming

Timing of precipitation events within the growing season and the non-uniformity of warming might be decisive for alterations in productivity and community composition, with consequences for ecosystem functioning. The responses of aboveground production, community composition, functional group and species evenness to altered intra-annual precipitation variability and their interactions with winter or summer warming were examined in European, mesic temperate grassland. Increased precipitation variability with an induced spring drought resulted in a 17% reduction in ANPP, and late drought reduced ANPP by 18% compared to regular rainfall patterns throughout the entire growing season. Winter warming increased ANPP by 12%, whereas summer warming showed no significant effect on biomass but decreased species richness. The effects of increased precipitation variability and warming on ANPP were independent of each other. Forbs benefited from high precipitation variability with spring drought events, likely due to reduced competitive pressure by decreasing, water stressed grasses. Increased precipitation variability coinciding with higher summer temperatures led to reduced species evenness and likely promoted the establishment of specialists and drought-tolerant species. Seasonality of climatic factors, here early versus late drought events in the high precipitation variability treatments, was important in driving shifts in community composition but not for decreases in ANPP. Non-uniform warming, here winter versus summer, affected the direction of response of both community composition and ANPP. Variability of resources is affecting ecosystem processes and species interactions. Recognition of seasonality and non-uniformity of climatic factors will improve predictions of plant performance and biotic interactions in response to climate change.     

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta‐analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.     

Evolutionary regime shifts in simulated ecosystems

Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems occur when the system is tipped into a new attractor state under some external forcing. Here we consider whether evolutionary adaptations within ecosystems can trigger similar transitions. We use an individual‐based, evolutionary model of interconnected ecosystems to analyze nonlinear changes in global state resulting from local adaptations. Transitions between periods of stability occur when new traits arise that allow exploitation of under‐utilized resources. Subsequent rapid growth of the population carrying the new trait causes abrupt environmental change that drives incumbent species extinct. We call these transitions ‘evolutionary regime shifts’. These internally generated perturbations can result in ecosystem collapse, followed by recovery to an alternate stable state, or occasionally system‐wide extinction. While these disruptions may have a negative impact on ecosystem productivity in individual simulation runs, mean results over many simulations show a trend for increasing ecosystem productivity and stability over time. Feedback between life and the abiotic environment in the model creates a ‘long‐tailed’ distribution of extinction sizes without any external trigger for large extinction events.     

Aboveground net primary production dynamics in a northern Chihuahuan Desert ecosystem

Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) dynamics are a key element in the understanding of ecosystem processes. For semiarid environments, the pulse-reserve framework links ANPP to variable and unpredictable precipitation events contingent on surficial hydrology, soil moisture dynamics, biodiversity structure, trophic dynamics, and landscape context. Consequently, ANPP may be decoupled periodically from processes such as decomposition and may be subjected to complex feedbacks and thresholds at broader scales. As currently formulated, the pulse-reserve framework may not encompass the breadth of ANPP response to seasonal patterns of precipitation and heat inputs. Accordingly, we examined a 6-year (1999–2004), seasonal record of ANPP with respect to precipitation, soil moisture dynamics, and functional groups in a black grama (Bouteloua eriopoda) grassland and a creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) shrubland in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. Annual ANPP was similar in the grassland (51.1 g/m²) and shrubland (59.2 g/m²) and positively correlated with annual precipitation. ANPP differed among communities with respect to life forms and functional groups and responses to abiotic drivers. In keeping with the pulse-reserve model, ANPP in black grama grassland was dominated by warm-season C₄ grasses and subshrubs that responded to large, transient summer storms and associated soil moisture in the upper 30 cm. In contrast, ANPP in creosotebush shrubland occasionally responded to summer moisture, but the predominant pattern was slower, non-pulsed growth of cool-season C₃ shrubs during spring, in response to winter soil moisture accumulation and the breaking of cold dormancy. Overall, production in this Chihuahuan Desert ecosystem reflected a mix of warm-temperate arid land pulse dynamics during the summer monsoon and non-pulsed dynamics in spring driven by winter soil moisture accumulation similar to that of cool-temperate regions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Ecosystems off track: rate‐induced critical transitions in ecological models

Theory suggests that gradual environmental change may erode the resilience of ecosystems and increase their susceptibility to critical transitions. This notion has received a lot of attention in ecology in recent decades. An important question receiving far less attention is whether ecosystems can cope with the rapid environmental changes currently imposed. The importance of this question was recently highlighted by model studies showing that elevated rates of change may trigger critical transitions, whereas slow environmental change would not. This paper aims to provide a mechanistic understanding of these rate‐induced critical transitions to facilitate identification of rate sensitive ecosystems. Analysis of rate sensitive ecological models is challenging, but we demonstrate how rate‐induced transitions in an elementary model can still be understood. Our analyses reveal that rate‐induced transitions 1) occur if the rate of environmental change is high compared to the response rate of ecosystems, 2) are driven by rates, rather than magnitudes, of change and 3) occur once a critical rate of change is exceeded. Disentangling rate‐induced transitions from classical transitions in observations would be challenging. However, common features of rate‐sensitive models suggest that ecosystems with coupled fast–slow dynamics, exhibiting repetitive catastrophic shifts or displaying periodic spatial patterns are more likely to be rate sensitive. Our findings are supported by experimental studies showing rate‐dependent outcomes. Rate sensitivity of models suggests that the common definition of ecological resilience is not suitable for a subset of real ecosystems and that formulating limits to magnitudes of change may not always safeguard against ecosystem degradation. Synthesis Understanding and predicting ecosystem response to environmental change is one of the key challenges in ecology. Model studies have suggested that slow, gradual environmental change beyond some critical threshold can trigger so‐called critical transitions and abrupt ecosystem degradation. An important question remains however whether ecosystems can cope with the ongoing rapid anthropogenic environmental changes to which they are currently imposed. In this study we demonstrate that in some ecological models elevated rates of change can trigger critical transitions even if slow environmental change of the same magnitude would not. Such rateinduced critical transitions in models suggest that concepts like resilience and planetary boundaries may not always be sufficient to explain and prevent ecosystem degradation.