生物多样性保护适应气候变化的管理策略

应对气候变化和保护生物多样性是2大全球性热点环境问题。气候变化导致物种多样性丧失、生态系统服务降低和区域生态安全屏障功能受损,威胁到中国国土生态安全格局和生态脆弱区域的可持续发展,给生物多样性保护带来新的挑战。做好生物多样性保护适应气候变化的风险管理工作,既是生物多样性应对气候变化风险的必要措施,也是减缓气候变化的重要途径。结合爱知目标10的实现情况,分析了欧盟、澳大利亚、美国等发达国家发布的生物多样性适应气候变化技术政策制定情况、中国生物多样性应对气候变化进展情况,剖析了中国生物多样性保护适应气候变化存在的问题,包括生物多样性应对气候变化的科学认知亟待提高、生物多样性保护适应气候变化的能力建设不足、自然保护地之间缺乏适应气候变化的生态廊道网络、生物多样性保护适应气候变化的技术标准缺乏。研究提出了中国生物多样性应对气候变化的适应性管理策略,包括制定《中国生物多样性保护协同应对气候变化的国家方案》、加强生物多样性保护适应气候变化的能力建设、开展自然保护区适应气候变化的风险管理试点、强化生物多样性应对气候变化的科技支撑,以期为推进纳入气候变化风险管理的生物多样性保护工作提供决策依据。     

Clear and present danger: balancing the land management issues of today with the eternal challenge of climate change

Summary Management of natural ecosystems in Australian landscapes is fraught with difficulties and challenges. While unfavourable climate change is viewed of as an overwhelming critical factor, government and nongovernment groups faced with conserving biodiversity and ecological processes must continue to focus on already well‐advanced present‐day threats that erode the resilience of species to environmental perturbations and change. The most notable of these are posed by land clearing, introduced pests, weeds and inappropriate fire regimes. There are many positive examples of the biodiversity gains that can be made from reconnecting remnant vegetation, intensive and extensive pest and weed control, and re‐adjusting fire regimes. When such pressures are alleviated, native species sometimes display an innate ability to recover. This gives hope that natural systems can be both resurrected and maintained for a range of functions, including providing sufficient suitable habitat to support the movement of component species in response to climate change. Achieving success in managing natural areas over the long term may be further assisted by looking outside the box for funding sources. Monitoring the outcome of land management activities is a key to understanding what is being achieved and should be encouraged wherever possible.     

藏北高原地表覆盖时空动态及其对气候变化的响应

利用2001—2008年逐年的MODIS地表覆盖类型产品,根据藏北高原地表覆被特征对原始数据进行合并处理,得到每年藏北高原地表覆盖类型图;运用分类统计、动态转移矩阵、景观格局指数方法分析藏北高原地表覆盖类型的变化,并结合研究区内气象台站观测数据分析地表覆盖类型转化对气候变化的响应特征.结果表明:研究期间,由于气候变暖速率的加快,研究区冰川雪被消融加速,冰川面积迅速萎缩,融化的雪水汇集到高原湖盆,使湖面水位上升,湖泊面积增加,部分被淹没的草地形成湿地;植被覆盖状况没有表现出明显的变好或退化趋势,2001—2004年为气候暖湿化阶段,荒漠裸地减少、稀疏草地和草地覆盖面积增加,2006—2007年为气候暖干化阶段,荒漠面积增加、稀疏草地面积减小;2001—2008年,藏北高原景观破碎度减小,地表覆盖异质性降低,且各类型所占比例的差异有所加大.     

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.     

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul‐de‐sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present‐to‐future velocities) and management of species populations (future‐to‐present velocities).     

Identifying particular areas for potential seed collections for restoration plantings under climate change

A method to assist identifying potential sites for seed collections for restoration plantings is demonstrated using the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) and an example site near Albury (New South Wales). The mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) of the example site are determined using the ALA. Data on likely changes in MAT and MAP are accessed from the ‘Climate Change in Australia’ website. The ALA's ‘define environmental envelope’ function is then used to identify areas currently experiencing conditions similar to the future climatic conditions projected for the site. Species distribution data in the ALA indicate locations where suitable provenances of the chosen species are likely to be present. In the case of trees, satellite images in the ALA can indicate whether isolated trees or extensive stands, that may be genetically diverse, exist at locations of interest. Shrublands, grasslands or wetlands may also be identified from the satellite images. The Monitoring, Evaluation, Reporting and Improvement Tool (MERIT) within the ALA can be used to identify existing trials that may already be using suitable provenances for the restoration site. Some considerations for provenance selection under climate change are outlined, as well as the advantages and limitations of using the ALA for this purpose.     

Effect of climate change,CO2 trends,nitrogen addition,and land‐cover and management intensity changes on the carbon balance of European grasslands

Several lines of evidence point to European managed grassland ecosystems being a sink of carbon. In this study, we apply ORCHIDEE‐GM a process‐based carbon cycle model that describes specific management practices of pastures and the dynamics of carbon cycling in response to changes in climatic and biogeochemical drivers. The model is used to simulate changes in the carbon balance [i.e., net biome production (NBP)] of European grasslands over 1991–2010 on a 25 km × 25 km grid. The modeled average trend in NBP is 1.8–2.0 g C m^?2 yr^?2 during the past two decades. Attribution of this trend suggests management intensity as the dominant driver explaining NBP trends in the model (36–43% of the trend due to all drivers). A major change in grassland management intensity has occurred across Europe resulting from reduced livestock numbers. This change has ‘inadvertently’ enhanced soil C sequestration and reduced N₂O and CH₄ emissions by 1.2–1.5 Gt CO₂‐equivalent, offsetting more than 7% of greenhouse gas emissions in the whole European agricultural sector during the period 1991–2010. Land‐cover change, climate change and rising CO₂ also make positive and moderate contributions to the NBP trend (between 24% and 31% of the trend due to all drivers). Changes in nitrogen addition (including fertilization and atmospheric deposition) are found to have only marginal net effect on NBP trends. However, this may not reflect reality because our model has only a very simple parameterization of nitrogen effects on photosynthesis. The sum of NBP trends from each driver is larger than the trend obtained when all drivers are varied together, leaving a residual – nonattributed – term (22–26% of the trend due to all drivers) indicating negative interactions between drivers.     

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO₂ concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂ was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.     

未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响

茶是对气候变化敏感的重要经济作物, 评价全球气候变化对茶分布和生产的影响对相关国家经济发展和茶农的生计至关重要。本研究基于全球858个茶分布点和6个气候因子数据, 利用物种分布模型预测全球茶的潜在适宜分布区及其在2070年的不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下的变化。结果表明: 当前茶在五大洲均有适宜分布区, 主要集中在亚洲、非洲和南美洲, 并且最冷季平均温和最暖季降水量主导了茶的分布。预计2070年, 茶的适宜分布区变化在不同的大洲、国家和气候情景间将存在差异。具体来说, 茶的适宜分布区总面积将会减少, 减少的区域主要位于低纬度地区, 而中高纬度地区的适宜分布区将扩张, 由此可能导致茶的适宜分布区向北移动; 重要的产茶国中, 阿根廷、缅甸、越南等茶适宜分布区面积会减少57.8%-95.8%, 而中国和日本的适宜分布面积则会增加2.7%-31.5%。未来全球新增的适宜分布区中, 约有68%的地区土地覆盖类型为自然植被, 因此可能导致新茶树种植园的开垦和自然植被及生物多样性保护产生冲突。     

基于土地利用/覆被变化的流域景观格局与水沙响应关系研究

以黄河流域的2个典型流域为研究对象,借助GIS和Fragstats平台与长系列水沙数据,分析流域景观格局和水沙变化特征,并探讨景观指数与径流输沙的关系。结果表明:(1)两个流域优势景观类型为草地,1985—2010年间变化最大的景观类型分别为未利用土地(25a变幅为453.94 km~2)和耕地(25a变幅为52.85 km~2);(2)秃尾河流域景观均向规则、高连通和高度聚集的方向发展。孤山川控制流域内景观多样性和聚集度逐渐增加,整体向好。秃尾河流域景观稳定性指数高于孤山川流域,两流域草地和未利用土地地稳定性均呈增加趋势,而城乡工矿用地则相反。(3)流域年径流量和泥沙量均呈现逐年同步减小的趋势。秃尾河年径流量明显高于孤山川,但孤山川流域泥沙量与秃尾河流域相近。两流域径流泥沙相关关系显著,秃尾河流域相关系数(0.48)明显低于孤山川流域(0.85)。(4)景观指数与径流量、泥沙量呈显著线性相关,其中景观多样性相关的指数SHDI、SIDI、SHEI和SIEI均与径流呈极显著正相关,而泥沙仅与CONTAG、COHESION呈显著负相关。     

Potential pollination maintenance by an exotic allodapine bee under climate change scenarios in the Indo‐Pacific region

Recent studies suggest an alarming decline in pollinators across many regions of the world due to multiple factors. One potential factor is climate change, which poses both direct and indirect threats to pollinator populations. To help ameliorate the impact of declining populations on the function of ecological and agricultural systems, there is a need to identify species that may adapt to limit the magnitude of this pollination deficit. The South West Pacific has a highly depauperate endemic bee diversity and numerous non‐indigenous species, including honeybees. One allodapine bee, Braunsapis puangensis, has been accidentally introduced to Fiji where it has rapidly spread across multiple islands and become locally abundant. It is a long‐tongued bee, unaffected by honeybee pathogens, and has the potential to become an important crop pollinator. Here, we model the distribution of this species under different climate scenarios to determine how it is likely to respond to future climate change. We show that its distribution is unlikely to contract, but potentially expand with climate warming. These scenarios therefore indicate that the plasticity in B. puangensis populations may allow it to represent an important crop pollinator in this region should honeybee populations decline.     

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost‐effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red‐listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.     

Determining the effects of habitat management and climate on the population trends of a declining steppe bird

The Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax is one of the most threatened steppe bird species in Europe, due mainly to agricultural intensification. Despite the relative importance of the Iberian population (approximately 50% of the global population) little is known about its dynamics and trends, especially in core distribution areas. This study evaluates the influences of meteorological factors and land management on the oscillations and medium-term trends of two Little Bustard populations in Central Spain. During 2001–2007, surveys of breeding male and female Little Bustards were carried out in two central Spanish locations: Valdetorres, in Special Protection Area (SPA) no. 139 (1600 ha), and Campo Real, in Important Bird Area (IBA) no. 075 (1150 ha). Densities were 3.3–4.0 and 1.1–2.1 males/km² in Campo Real, and 1.8–2.2 and 0.6–1.3 females/km² in Valdetorres. The sex ratio was biased towards males in both cases. Both populations declined during 2001–2007, especially in Valdetorres (60%). Variation in habitat composition did not explain variation in the numbers of males. Both populations were influenced by total precipitation in the preceding October–May period. Results suggest that the Little Bustard may be sensitive to future climate trends in Europe. Finally, different simulated demographic scenarios suggest that low female survival and productivity may be the immediate cause of the decline in Little Bustard populations, which is consistent with their sensitivity to climatic conditions.     

云南省维西县塔城镇土地利用/地表覆盖及其空间格局变化研究

利用遥感和地理信息系统,结合野外实地参与式调查,从土地利用类型和空间格局角度,对滇西北维西县塔城镇1990和1999年的土地利用变化进行综合分析。结果表明,塔城镇10年间土地利用类型和空间结构变化较小,仍以有林地为主。但高覆盖度林地、中覆盖度林地和低覆盖度林地的结构发生了变化,低覆盖度林地从9．93％增加到18．30％,增加8．37％;高覆盖度林地减少5．35％;中覆盖度林地减少5．15％,森林植被质量下降。土地利用／地表覆盖景观变化最大的区域在海拔3400m以上的塔城镇的东南角和西南角。景观多样性、优势度降低,景观破碎化程度加深,严重影响该地区滇金丝猴的栖息地。     

基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区——以京津冀为例

在保护优先区规划中,有必要考虑气候变化的潜在风险并关注物种在气候驱动下的扩散格局。基于未来生物气候数据、地形多样性数据以及土地利用数据,应用Omniscape算法,对21世纪中叶(2040-2061年)气候变化情景下京津冀地区陆生哺乳动物的扩散进行全域连通性建模并与当前情景对比分析,识别出生物多样性保护优先区。结果表明:区域尺度下,气候变化风险使得高连通性的区域逐渐从平原向山区转移,分布趋于集中;斑块尺度下,林缘连通性较高,而位于林地或草地边缘的耕地连通性低。在此基础上,共识别生物多样性保护优先区共51786 km²,其中涵养区(占56.4%)在当前和未来的连通状况均较为良好;优化区(占38.4%)应提升生境质量以满足未来连通性的更高需求;而修复区(占5.22%)面临的气候变化风险较高,亟需进行生态修复以免在未来出现连通性夹点。本研究通过评估京津冀地区两种情景下的全域连通格局,为生物多样性保护的气候适应性规划提供了科学依据。     

北京城市土地利用/覆盖变化及其对雨洪调节服务的影响

深入认识城市土地利用/覆盖变化对雨洪调节服务的影响对于提升城市生态系统服务和雨洪管理具有重要意义。基于多期Landsat遥感影像,利用混合像元分解与人工目视解译集成的方法提取了北京市1991—2014年的土地利用/覆盖数据,模拟评估了不同降雨情景下的地表产流与雨洪调节服务,并分析了城市建成区的土地利用/覆盖变化对雨洪调节服务的影响。结果表明:1991—2014年,北京城市用地面积增长了1096.53 km²,建成区内不透水面比例上升了9.83%。城市建成区雨洪调节服务总体呈下降趋势,1a、10a、25a和100a一遇降雨情景下平均地表径流调节率分别下降了5.37%、2.40%、1.75%和1.04%,一定程度上加剧了城市的雨洪产流风险。同时,城市新扩张区的土地利用/覆盖变化对雨洪调节服务的影响较老城区更强,贡献度超过84%。建议未来城市新区发展应合理配置不透水地表和绿地空间以提升城市雨洪调节服务。     

The future of South East Asian rainforests in a changing landscape and climate

With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue.