Individual-based model of spatio-temporal dynamics of mixed forest stands

This research presents the results of constructing and parameterizing an individual-based model of spatiotemporal dynamics of mixed forest stands. The model facilitates computerized experiments with forest stands having different combinations of species and age structures. These forest stands grow on temperate areas where light is the main system-forming factor that shapes and develops forest ecosystems. The model TEMFORM (TEMperate FORests Model) is developed with few equations and parameters, most of which can be estimated using standard forest inventory data. Parameterization of the model used the growth tables of a set of basic forest-forming species in Far East Russia. Simulation results of the development of the natural single- and mixed-species stands and the effects of different types of disturbances on the stand dynamics and compositions are presented.     

A population balance model for fish population dynamics

A population balance model of fish population dynamics for batch systems was developed. A growth rate expression was introduced and coupled with the population balance. Solutions of the model provide predictions of such fish size distribution characteristics as average size, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. A growth diffusivity mechanism was found to be inapplicable to systems where a terminal size is reached. A study of the two parameter growth rate expression was conducted, illustrating that conditions conducive to high growth rates also resulted in broadening of size distributions. The model was compared to data found in the literature to demonstrate its predictive capabilities.     

Relative importance of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity for butterfly population dynamics

The relative contribution of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity to the temporal dynamics of animal populations is one of the central issues of ecology. In insects, the primary role of the latter factor, typically represented by weather patterns, is widely accepted. We have evaluated the impact of density dependence as well as density-independent factors, including weather and mowing regime, on annual fluctuations of butterfly populations. As model species, we used Maculinea alcon and M. teleius living in sympatry and, consequently, we also analysed the effect of their potential competition. Density dependence alone explained 62 and 42% of the variation in the year-to-year trends of M. alcon and M. teleius, respectively. The cumulative Akaike weight of models with density dependence, which can be interpreted as the probability that this factor should be contained in the most appropriate population dynamics model, exceeded 0.97 for both species. In contrast, the impacts of inter-specific competition, mowing regime and weather were much weaker, with their cumulative weights being in the range of 0.08–0.21; in addition, each of these factors explained only 2–5% of additional variation in Maculinea population trends. Our results provide strong evidence for density-dependent regulation in Maculinea, while the influence of environmental stochasticity is rather minor. In the light of several recent studies on other butterflies that detected significant density-dependent effects, it would appear that density-dependent regulation may be more widespread in this group than previously thought, while the role of environmental stochasticity has probably been overestimated. We suggest that this misconception is the result of deficiencies in the design of most butterfly population studies in the past, including (1) a strong focus on adults and a neglect of the larval stage in which density-dependent effects are most likely to occur; (2) an almost exclusive reliance on transect count results that may confound the impact of environmental stochasticity on butterfly numbers with its impact on adult longevity. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

From snapshot information to long-term population dynamics of Acacias by a simulation model

The African Acacia species A. raddiana is believed to be endangered in the Negev desert of Israel. The ecology of this species is not well understood. The main idea of our study is to learn more about the long-term population dynamics of these trees using snapshot information in the form of size frequency distributions. These distributions are highly condensed indices of population dynamics acting over many years. In this paper, we analyse field data on recruitment, growth, and mortality and use an existing simulation model of the population dynamics of A. raddiana (SAM) to produce contrasting scenarios of these live history processes that are based on the analysed field evidence. The main properties of simulated as well as observed tree size frequency distributions are characterised with Simpson's index of dominance and a new permutation index. Finally, by running the SAM model under the different scenarios, we study the effect of these different processes on simulated size frequency distributions (pattern) and we compare them to size distributions observed in the field, in order to identify the processes acting in the field. Our study confirms rare recruitment events as a major factor shaping tree size frequency distributions and shows that the paucity of recruitment has been a normal feature of A. raddiana in the Negev over many years. Irregular growth, e.g., due to episodic rainfall, showed a moderate influence on size distributions. Finally, the size frequency distributions observed in the Negev reveal the information that, in this harsh environment, mortality of adult A. raddiana is independent of tree size (age).     

A model for aggregation-dispersion dynamics of a population

An important feature that distinguishes the movement of living systems from the random motion of inorganic material is a delicate balance between spreading and concentrating. This movement is based on the kind of interactions which a bacterial colony may establish during migration. Namely, the antagonistic effects of dispersal which take place preferentially down the population gradient and the tendency in grouping together. In this work a model is proposed which considers these effects. The phase plane analysis and the numerical calculations reveal the existence of stable sharp wave front solutions. The speed of the wave front is modulated by the compromise between the tendencies of spreading and aggregating. The results obtained were compared with experimental observations in cultures of Escherichia coli and Streptococcus faecalis. The agreement between both types of results supports the hypothesis on which the model was based.     

A model for the dynamics of an annual plant population

A model for the dynamics of a single species population of plants is proposed and its use demonstrated by the analysis of a simple example. The model incorporates the effects of microsite variation by allowing for individual differences in growth and death rates within each season. We demonstrate that an increase in the variance in individual growth rates may increase both the chances that a plant population will persist and the equilibrium size of that population. We also show that even if size-dependent death is occurring, it may not have a significant effect on the shape of the size frequency distribution. An extension of the model to multispecies communities of plants suggests an experimental procedure to determine whether competition is responsible for excluding a particular plant species from a community that appears otherwise to be suitable. A more detailed analysis of the model for a two-species community produces conditions for competitive coexistence reminiscent of those from the Lotka-Volterra competition equations. Another extension suggests that selection will favor those genotypes that maximize the product of germination probability and mass of seeds produced, if survivorship and growth are not substantially altered. Finally, an analog to r- and K-selection theory for animal populations is developed. Selection in low-density populations favors increasing growth rate, and in high-density populations favors minimizing the effect of neighbors on one's own growth rate.     

A mathematical model for the population dynamics of army ants

A stochastic cellular automata model for the population dynamics of the army antEciton burchelli on Barro Colorado Island in Panama is set up. It is simulated on the computer and shown to give good agreement with biological data. It is analysed using two approximations akin to the mean field approximation in statistical mechanics, and good agreement with the simulations is obtained. Finally, the role of distance between successive statary phase bivouacs is discussed with regard to the rate of colony growth. There are two aspects of the biological system studied here that make it of general importance. First, the population is structured, since the size of each colony of army ants is crucial. Second, the spatial behaviour of the population, as in many others, is not diffusion-like, although it is random. This has implications for the kind of model that is chosen.     

A long-term study of Pinus banksiana population dynamics

Abstract. The long-term population dynamics of a pure, naturally-established stand of Pinus banksiana (jack pine) in southeastern Manitoba, Canada is described. The study was initiated at stand age 15, when all 468 trees in a plot were mapped and their trunk diameter at breast height (DBH) measured. The plot was remeasured eight times — every five years (six years in one case) — and mortality and DBH changes recorded. Total mortality over the 41-yr study period was ca. 84 %. Mortality was initially very low, increased once the stand entered the self-thinning stage from ages 25–46, and declined at ages 46–56. Mortality was restricted to the smallest size classes throughout. The stand reached the self-thinning line at ca. age 30. The self-thinning slope was significantly less steep than the theoretically expected value of ?0.5. The distribution of DBH values was initially symmetric, showed increasing positive skewness during the period of highest mortality, and became symmetric again at later stages. Size (DBH) inequality was highest just prior to the onset of density-dependent mortality, and subsequently declined. Tree DBH values were positively autocorrelated both initially and at later stages of stand development, but were spatially independent during the period of highest density-dependent mortality. The stand initially had a strongly clumped pattern at all spatial scales. Patterns of mortality were non-random during stand development, however, resulting in increased spatial regularity over time. Mortality was initially restricted to high density patches of the stand, but occurred throughout the plot once the self-thinning line was reached. Mortality during the self-thinning stage deviated from random expectation at local spatial scales (1–2m radius), suggesting that individuals were competing with their immediate neighbours. It is argued that an integrated approach, incorporating both population size and spatial structures, is essential in improving our understanding of long-term plant population dynamics.     

An individual-based population model for the prediction of rotifer population dynamics and resting egg production

Most species of rotifers have a combination of sexual and asexual reproduction, with sexual reproduction resulting in resting eggs, which can lay dormant for long periods. The occurrence of sexual reproduction affects population dynamics through the temporary presence of male rotifers, and a reduction in the growth of the number of female rotifers. A previously published, individual-based model used dynamic energy budget theory to describe rotifer food intake, growth, egg production, and mortality, but assumed asexual reproduction only. In the current study, we have expanded the model to describe the entire reproductive cycle of the rotifers, making it usable for investigating relationships, such as those between the signal triggering mictic egg production, and the timing and number of resting eggs produced. The model is intended for use in predicting the specific future development of cultures, for instance, as a process model in rotifer or resting egg production for aquaculture. Guest editors: S. S. S. Sarma, R. D. Gulati, R. L. Wallace, S. Nandini, H. J. Dumont & R. Rico-Martínez Advances in Rotifer Research     

Life-history trade-offs and ecological dynamics in the evolution of longevity

Longevity is a life-history trait that is shaped by natural selection. An unexplored consequence is how selection on this trait affects diversity and diversification in species assemblages. Motivated by the diverse rockfish (Sebastes) assemblage in the North Pacific, the effects of trade-offs in longevity against competitive ability are explored. A competition model is developed and used to explore the potential for species diversification and coexistence. Invasion analyses highlight that life-history trait trade-offs in longevity can mitigate the effects of competitive ability and favour the coexistence of a finite number of species. Our results have implications for niche differentiation, limiting similarity and assembly dynamics in multispecies interactions.     

Individual-based modeling of phytoplankton: evaluating approaches for applying the cell quota model

Present phytoplankton models typically use a population-level (lumped) modeling (PLM) approach that assumes average properties of a population within a control volume. For modern biogeochemical models that formulate growth as a nonlinear function of the internal nutrient (e.g. Droop kinetics), this averaging assumption can introduce a significant error. Individual-based (agent-based) modeling (IBM) does not make the assumption of average properties and therefore constitutes a promising alternative for biogeochemical modeling. This paper explores the hypothesis that the cell quota (Droop) model, which predicts the population-average specific growth or cell division rate, based on the population-average nutrient cell quota, can be applied to individual algal cells and produce the same population-level results. Three models that translate the growth rate calculated using the cell quota model into discrete cell division events are evaluated, including a stochastic model based on the probability of cell division, a deterministic model based on the maturation velocity and fraction of the cell cycle completed (maturity fraction), and a deterministic model based on biomass (carbon) growth and cell size. The division models are integrated into an IBM framework (iAlgae), which combines a lumped system representation of a nutrient with an individual representation of algae. The IBM models are evaluated against a conventional PLM (because that is the traditional approach) and data from a number of steady and unsteady continuous (chemostat) and batch culture laboratory experiments. The stochastic IBM model fails the steady chemostat culture test, because it produces excessive numerical randomness. The deterministic cell cycle IBM model fails the batch culture test, because it has an abrupt drop in cell quota at division, which allows the cell quota to fall below the subsistence quota. The deterministic cell size IBM model reproduces the data and PLM results for all experiments and the model parameters (e.g. maximum specific growth rate, subsistence quota) are the same as those for the PLM. In addition, the model-predicted cell age, size (carbon) and volume distributions are consistent with those derived analytically and compare well to observations. The paper discusses and illustrates scenarios where intra-population variability in natural systems leads to differences between the IBM and PLM models.     

The importance of effective sampling for exploring the population dynamics of haploid–diploid seaweeds

The mating system partitions genetic diversity within and among populations and the links between life history traits and mating systems have been extensively studied in diploid organisms. As such most evolutionary theory is focused on species for which sexual reproduction occurs between diploid male and diploid female individuals. However, there are many multicellular organisms with biphasic life cycles in which the haploid stage is prolonged and undergoes substantial somatic development. In particular, biphasic life cycles are found across green, brown and red macroalgae. Yet, few studies have addressed the population structure and genetic diversity in both the haploid and diploid stages in these life cycles. We have developed some broad guidelines with which to develop population genetic studies of haploid‐diploid macroalgae and to quantify the relationship between power and sampling strategy. We address three common goals for studying macroalgal population dynamics, including haploid‐diploid ratios, genetic structure and paternity analyses.     

Evolution of reproductive effort in viscous populations: the importance of population dynamics

I present two ecological models for the evolution of reproductive effort in viscous populations with empty sites. In contrast with previous studies, I show that limited dispersal needs not have a positive effect on the evolutionarily stable allocation of resources to fecundity versus survival. Rather, depending on the feedback between the trait and the population dynamics, population viscosity may have no effect or even lead to a decrease in the evolutionarily stable reproductive effort when individuals can degrade their environment during their lifetime. I show that the different evolutionary outcomes can be explained by the asymmetry in the level of kin competition resulting from investing into juveniles or into adults.     

A mathematical model of population dynamics for Batesian mimicry system

We analyse a mathematical model of the population dynamics among a mimic, a corresponding model, and their common predator populations. Predator changes its search-and-attack probability by forming and losing its search image. It cannot distinguish the mimic from the model. Once a predator eats a model individual, it comes to omit both the model and the mimic species from its diet menu. If a predator eats a mimic individual, it comes to increase the search-and-attack probability for both model and mimic. The predator may lose the repulsive/attractive search image with a probability per day. By analysing our model, we can derive the mathematical condition for the persistence of model and mimic populations, and then get the result that the condition for the persistence of model population does not depend on the mimic population size, while the condition for the persistence of mimic population does depend the predator's memory of search image.     

A mathematical model of population dynamics for Batesian mimicry system

We analyse a mathematical model of the population dynamics among a mimic, a corresponding model, and their common predator populations. Predator changes its search-and-attack probability by forming and losing its search image. It cannot distinguish the mimic from the model. Once a predator eats a model individual, it comes to omit both the model and the mimic species from its diet menu. If a predator eats a mimic individual, it comes to increase the search-and-attack probability for both model and mimic. The predator may lose the repulsive/attractive search image with a probability per day. By analysing our model, we can derive the mathematical condition for the persistence of model and mimic populations, and then get the result that the condition for the persistence of model population does not depend on the mimic population size, while the condition for the persistence of mimic population does depend the predator's memory of search image.     

Advantages of the division of labour for the long-term population dynamics of cyanobacteria at different latitudes

A fundamental advancement in the evolution of complexity is division of labour. This implies a partition of tasks among cells, either spatially through cellular differentiation, or temporally via a circadian rhythm. Cyanobacteria often employ either spatial differentiation or a circadian rhythm in order to separate the chemically incompatible processes of nitrogen fixation and photosynthesis. We present a theoretical framework to assess the advantages in terms of biomass production and population size for three species types: terminally differentiated (heterocystous), circadian, and an idealized species in which nitrogen and carbon fixation occur without biochemical constraints. On the basis of real solar irradiance data at different latitudes, we simulate population dynamics in isolation and in competition for light over a period of 40 years. Our results show that in isolation and regardless of latitude, the biomass of heterocystous cyanobacteria that optimally invest resources is comparable to that of the idealized unconstrained species. Hence, spatial division of labour overcomes biochemical constraints and enhances biomass production. In the circadian case, the strict temporal task separation modelled here hinders high biomass production in comparison with the heterocystous species. However, circadian species are found to be successful in competition for light whenever their resource investment prevents a waste of fixed nitrogen more effectively than do heterocystous species. In addition, we show the existence of a trade-off between population size and biomass accumulation, whereby each species can optimally invest resources to be proficient in biomass production or population growth, but not necessarily both. Finally, the model produces chaotic dynamics for population size, which is relevant to the study of cyanobacterial blooms.     

On Ebenman's model for the dynamics of a population with competing juveniles and adults

A general version of a model of Ebenman for the dynamics of a population consisting of competing juveniles and adults is analyzed using methods of bifurcation theory. A very general existence results is obtained for non-trivial equilibria and non-negative synchronous two-cycles that bifurcate simultaneously at the critical valuer=1 of the inherent net reproductive rater. Stability is studied in this general setting near the bifurcation point and conditions are derived that determine which of these two bifurcating branches is the stable branch. These general results are supplemented by numerical studies of the asymptotic dynamics over wider parameter ranges where various other bifurcations and stable attractors are found. The implications of these results are discussed with respect to the effects on stability that age class competition within a population can have and whether such competition is stabilizing or destabilizing. Supported by National Science Foundation Grant No. DMS-8714810.     

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.     

昆虫种群动态时空回归预测方法及应用研究

根据昆虫种群内个体空间相互作用的特点,提出分析昆虫种群时空相关的三维相关图方法及种群动态预测的时空混合回归模型,对马尾松毛虫幼虫密切分布的预测采用了时空自回归加空趋势面的形式,预测的马尾松毛虫幼虫的平均密度和实测的平均密度在时空变化的趋势上是完全一致的,而且预测结果给出了马尾松毛虫的幼虫密度分布的图形形式,给防治决策提供了方便。