Identifying climatic niche shifts using coarse‐grained occurrence data: a test with non‐native freshwater fish

Aim We tested whether coarse‐grained occurrence data can be used to detect climatic niche shifts between native and non‐native ranges for a set of widely introduced freshwater fishes. Location World‐wide. Methods We used a global database of freshwater fish occurrences at the river basin scale to identify native and non‐native ranges for 18 of the most widely introduced fish species. We also examined climatic conditions within each river basin using fine‐grained climate data. We combined this information to test whether climatic niche shifts have occurred between native and non‐native ranges. We defined climatic niche shifts as instances where the ranges of a climatic variable within native and non‐native basins exhibit zero overlap. Results We detected at least one climatic niche shift for each of the 18 studied species. However, we did not detect common patterns in the thermal preference or biogeographic origin of the non‐native fish, hence suggesting a species‐specific response. Main conclusions Coarse‐grained occurrence data can be used to detect climatic niche shifts. They also enable the identification of the species experiencing niche shifts, although the mechanisms responsible for these shifts (e.g. local adaptation, dispersal limitation or physiological constraints) have yet to be determined. Furthermore, the coarse‐grained approach, which highlights regions where climatic niche shifts have occurred, can be used to select specific river basins for more detailed, fine‐grained studies.     

Establishment success of invasive ring‐necked and monk parakeets in Europe

Aim Invasive alien species are a growing threat to biodiversity, and identifying the mechanisms that enable these species to establish viable populations in their new environment is paramount for management of the problems they pose. Using an unusually large number of both failed and successful documented introductions of parakeets (Aves: Psittacidae) in Europe, we test two of the major hypotheses on the establishment success of invading species, namely the climate‐matching and the human‐activity hypothesis. Location European human population centres where ring‐necked parakeet (Psittacula krameri) and/or monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) introductions have occurred. Methods Data on ring‐necked and monk parakeet introductions in Europe were gathered from various sources, including published books and articles, but also from unpublished reports and local grey literature. Information was verified with experts from the region under consideration. In order to test the climate‐matching hypothesis, we verified whether the climatic factors that determine the parakeets’ native ranges also explain establishment success in Europe. Parakeet occurrence data from the native ranges were analysed using the presence‐only modelling method Maxent , and correlations between parakeet establishment and climatic and anthropogenic variables in Europe were assessed using both stepwise logistic regression and the information‐theoretic model selection approach. Results The establishment success of ring‐necked and monk parakeets was found to be positively associated with human population density, and, both in the native and in the introduced regions, parakeet occurrence was negatively correlated with the number of frost days. Thus, parakeets are more likely to establish in warmer and human‐dominated areas. Main conclusions The large number of independent parakeet introductions in Europe allows us to test the often‐used climate‐matching and human‐activity hypotheses at the species level. We show that both hypotheses offer insight into the invasion process of monk and ring‐necked parakeets. Our results suggest that, in the future, parakeet establishment probability may increase even further because global warming is likely to cause a decrease in the number of frost days and because urbanization and human populations are still increasing.     

Invasion of Old World Phragmites australis in the New World: precipitation and temperature patterns combined with human influences redesign the invasive niche

After its introduction into North America, Euro‐Asian Phragmites australis became an aggressive invasive wetland grass along the Atlantic coast of North America. Its distribution range has since expanded to the middle, south and southwest of North America, where invasive P. australis has replaced millions of hectares of native plants in inland and tidal wetlands. Another P. australis invasion from the Mediterranean region is simultaneously occurring in the Gulf region of the United States and some countries in South America. Here, we analysed the occurrence records of the two Old World invasive lineages of P. australis (Haplotype M and Med) in both their native and introduced ranges using environmental niche models (ENMs) to assess (i) whether a niche shift accompanied the invasions in the New World; (ii) the role of biologically relevant climatic variables and human influence in the process of invasion; and (iii) the current potential distribution of these two lineages. We detected local niche shifts along the East Coast of North America and the Gulf Coast of the United States for Haplotype M and around the Mississippi Delta and Florida of the United States for Med. The new niche of the introduced Haplotype M accounts for temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation. The introduced Med lineage has enlarged its original subtropical niche to the tropics‐subtropics, invading regions with a high annual mean temperature (> ca. 10 °C) and high precipitation in the driest period. Human influence is an important factor for both niches. We suggest that an increase in precipitation in the 20th century, global warming and human‐made habitats have shaped the invasive niches of the two lineages in the New World. However, as the invasions are ongoing and human and natural disturbances occur concomitantly, the future distribution ranges of the two lineages may diverge from the potential distribution ranges detected in this study.     

Testing multiple pathways for impacts of the non‐native Black‐headed Weaver Ploceus melanocephalus on native birds in Iberia in the early phase of invasion

Not all non‐native species have strong negative impacts on native species. It is desirable to assess whether a non‐native species will have a negative impact at an early stage in the invasion process, when management options such as eradication are still available. Although it may be difficult to detect early impacts of non‐native species, it is necessary to ensure that management decisions can be based on case‐specific scientific evidence. We assess the impacts of a non‐native bird, the Black‐headed Weaver Ploceus melanocephalus, at an early stage in its invasion of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this we identify potential pathways by which competition for shared resources by Black‐headed Weavers could lead to population declines in two ecologically similar native species, and generate hypotheses to test for evidence of competition along these pathways. Black‐headed Weavers could potentially impact native species by displacing them from nesting habitat, or by reducing habitat quality. We found no evidence for either potential competition pathway, suggesting that Black‐headed Weavers do not currently compete with the two native species. However, it is possible that mechanisms that currently allow coexistence may not operate once Black‐headed Weavers reach higher population densities or different habitats.     

High invasion potential of Hydrilla verticillata in the Americas predicted using ecological niche modeling combined with genetic data

Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion.     

A problem with variable selection in a comparison of correlative and process‐based species distribution models: Comments on Higgins et al., 2020

Comments are presented on an article published in October 2020 in Ecology and Evolution (“Predictive ability of a process‐based versus a correlative species distribution model”) by Higgins et al. This analyzed natural distributions of Australian eucalypt and acacia species and assessed the adventive range of selected species outside Australia. Unfortunately, inappropriate variables were used with the MaxEnt species distribution model outside Australia, so that large climatically suitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere were not identified. Examples from a previous analysis and from the use of the freely available spatial portal of the Atlas of Living Australia are provided to illustrate how the problem can be overcome. The comparison of methods described in the Higgins et al. paper is worthwhile, and it is hoped that the authors will be able to repeat their analyses using appropriate variables with the correlative model.     

In situ adaptation and ecological release facilitate the occupied niche expansion of a non‐native Madagascan day gecko in Florida

AimTo investigate whether the frequently advocated climate‐matching species distribution modeling approach could predict the well‐characterized colonization of Florida by the Madagascar giant day gecko Phelsuma grandis.LocationMadagascar and Florida, USA.MethodsTo determine the climatic conditions associated with the native range of P. grandis, we used native‐range presence‐only records and Bioclim climatic data to build a Maxent species distribution model and projected the climatic thresholds of the native range onto Florida. We then built an analogous model using Florida presence‐only data and projected it onto Madagascar. We constructed a third model using native‐range presences for both P. grandis and the closely related parapatric species P. kochi.ResultsDespite performing well within the native range, our Madagascar Bioclim model failed to identify suitable climatic habitat currently occupied by P. grandis in Florida. The model constructed using Florida presences also failed to reflect the distribution in Madagascar by overpredicting distribution, especially in western areas occupied by P. kochi. The model built using the combined P. kochi/P. grandis dataset modestly improved the prediction of the range of P. grandis in Florida, thereby implying competitive exclusion of P. grandis by P. kochi from habitat within the former''s fundamental niche. These findings thus suggest ecological release of P. grandis in Florida. However, because ecological release cannot fully explain the divergent occupied niches of P. grandis in Madagascar versus Florida, our findings also demonstrate some degree of in situ adaptation in Florida.Main conclusionsOur models suggest that the discrepancy between the predicted and observed range of P. grandis in Florida is attributable to either in situ adaptation by P. grandis within Florida, or a combination of such in situ adaptation and competition with P. kochi in Madagascar. Our study demonstrates that climate‐matching species distribution models can severely underpredict the establishment risk posed by non‐native herpetofauna.     

Using a climatic niche model to predict the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the distribution of Douglas‐fir in New Zealand

Climate change is likely to have major impacts on the distribution of planted and natural forests. Herein, we demonstrate how a process‐based niche model (CLIMEX) can be extended to globally project the potential habitat suitable for Douglas‐fir. Within this distribution, we use CLIMEX to predict abundance of the pathogen P haeocryptopus gaeumannii and severity of its associated foliage disease, Swiss needle cast. The distribution and severity of the disease, which can strongly reduce growth rate of Douglas‐fir, is closely correlated with seasonal temperatures and precipitation. This model is used to project how climate change during the 2080s may alter the area suitable for Douglas‐fir plantations within New Zealand. The climate change scenarios used indicate that the land area suitable for Douglas‐fir production in the North Island will be reduced markedly from near 100% under current climate to 36–64% of the total land area by 2080s. Within areas shown to be suitable for the host in the North Island, four of the six climate change scenarios predict substantial increases in disease severity that will make these regions at best marginal for Douglas‐fir by the 2080s. In contrast, most regions in the South Island are projected to sustain relatively low levels of disease, and remain suitable for Douglas‐fir under climate change over the course of this century.     

Spatial and temporal patterns in the diet of the Andean condor: ecological replacement of native fauna by exotic species

The development of conservation strategies to protect viable populations of scavenging birds requires the existence of adequate and safe food supplies in the wild. Early reports on Andean condors Vultur gryphus diet recorded guanacos and rheas, the dominant herbivores since the Pleistocene, as their main food in Patagonia. However, in the past century, guanaco and rhea populations have notably decreased as a consequence of introduced livestock, and other exotic mammals have colonized the region. We study the spatial and temporal variation of the condors' diet to determine which species are being consumed by condors, and to test whether native herbivores still have a role as a food source. We analysed 371 pellets (517 prey items), collected along 500 km in northwestern Patagonia, Argentina. Our study shows that the Andean condor depends heavily (98.5%) on exotic herbivores. Their diet was made up of c . 51% sheep/goat, 24% hare/rabbit, 17% red deer and 6% cow/horse, with only 2% other mammal species. Samples from locations surveyed after 12–15 years showed a diet shift coincident with the local tendencies in the food source. The diet composition of condors using roosts within the same zone was very similar, which suggests that they may be feeding from the same area. Thus, unhealthy carcasses could impact the entire local populations. Our results show the abundance of the invasive species in northwestern Patagonia and support the idea that native mega-herbivores are ecologically extinct in this area. Exotic species management can have a decisive impact on scavenger's survival. It is necessary to apply a strategy that includes public environmental education about the problems of scavengers (e.g. use of poison, veterinary medicines and lead bullets), and a serious productive plan, including native species as a suitable source of economic development.     

Coexistence between two fruit fly species is supported by the different strength of intra‐ and interspecific competition

1. Unravelling the strength and modes of interspecific interactions between resident and introduced species is necessary in order to understand the basis of their coexistence or the displacement of the former by the latter. In Argentina, the indigenous Tephritidae fly Anastrepha fraterculus overlaps its distribution and host fruit with the introduced species Ceratitis capitata. 2. This study focused on the relative strength of intra‐ and interspecific competition during the larval stage as a potential factor supporting coexistence. Classical competition experiments (addition and substitution) were conducted between larvae of the two species reared in artificial larval diet. The study evaluated whether a temporal separation between oviposition events affects the outcome of the competition. 3. When both species started to consume the resource at the same time, A. fraterculus experienced a negative effect in larval survival, pupal weight and duration of larval stage, while for C. capitata, pupal weight decreased. When A. fraterculus started feeding 1 day earlier than C. capitata, the negative effects became milder, and when the temporal separation increased, these effects were reversed. Substitution experiments showed an increase in pupal weight when larvae had to share the resource with heterospecific larvae, and showed negative effects suffered for both species when they shared the resource with conspecific individuals. 4. These results suggest that intraspecific competition is stronger than interspecific competition, and a differential oviposition preference could generate an asynchrony of these species in nature. Such mechanisms could favour coexistence between A. fraterculus and C. capitata in an environment previously occupied only by the former.     

Marine management affects the invasion success of a non‐native species in a temperate reef system in California,USA

Despite promises that ‘healthy’ marine systems show increased resilience, the effects of ecosystem management strategies on invasion success in marine systems is still unclear. We show that resistance to the invasive alga, Sargassum horneri, in a temperate reef system occurs through alternate mechanisms in different ecosystem states. In an old marine protected area (MPA), invasion of S. horneri was suppressed, likely due to competitive pressure from native algae, resulting from protection of urchin predators. In a nearby fished urchin barren, invasion of S. horneri was also suppressed, due to herbivory by urchins whose predators are fished. Within newer MPAs with intermediate levels of interacting species, S. horneri was abundant. Here, neither competition from native algae nor herbivory was sufficient to prevent invasion. We confirm that invasion in marine systems is complex and show that multiple mechanisms in single systems must be considered when investigating biotic resistance hypotheses.     

Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia

Climate change has already altered global patterns of biodiversity by modifying the geographic distributions of species. Forecasts based on bioclimatic envelop modeling of distributions of species suggests greater impacts can be expected in the future, but such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding future climate and migration rates of species. Here, we present a first assessment of the potential impact of climate change on a global biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Western Australia. Across three representative scenarios of future climate change, we simulated migration of 100 Banksia (Proteaceae) species at a rate of 5 km decade^?1 and compared projected impacts with those under the commonly applied, but acknowledged as inadequate, assumptions of ‘full‐’ and ‘no‐migration.’ Across all climate × migration scenarios, 66% of species were projected to decline, whereas only 6% were projected to expand or remain stable. Between 5% and 25% of species were projected to suffer range losses of 100% by 2080, depending mainly on climate scenario. Species losses were driven primarily by changes in current precipitation regimes, with the greatest losses of species projected to occur in a transition zone between wet coastal areas and interior arid regions and which is projected to become more arid in the future. Because the ranges of most species tended to collapse in all climate scenarios, we found that climate change impacts to flora of southwestern Western Australia may be large, even under optimistic assumptions regarding migration abilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the future of biodiversity in southwestern Western Australia may lie largely in the degree to which this hotspot experiences increased drought and in the ability of species to tolerate such decreases in precipitation. More broadly, our study is among a growing number of theoretical studies suggesting the impacts of future climate change on global biodiversity may be considerable.     

Predicting invasions in Australia by a Neotropical shrub under climate change: the challenge of novel climates and parameter estimation

Aim  To test how well species distributions and abundance can be predicted following invasion and climate change when using only species distribution and abundance data to estimate parameters.
Location  Models were developed for the species' native range in the Americas and applied to Australia.
Methods  We developed a predictive model for an invasive neotropical shrub ( Parkinsonia aculeata) using a popular ecophysiological bioclimatic modelling technique (CLIMEX) fitted against distribution and abundance data in the Americas. The effect of uncertainty in model parameter estimates on predictions in Australia was tested. Alternative data sources were used when model predictions were sensitive to uncertainty in parameter estimates. The resulting best-fit model was run under two climate change scenarios.
Results  Of the 19 parameters used, 9 could not be fitted using data from the native range. However, only parameters that lowered temperature or increased moisture requirements for growth noticeably altered the model prediction in Australia. Differences in predictions were dramatic, and reflect climates in Australia that were not represented in the Americas (novel climates). However, these poorly fitted parameters could be fitted post hoc using alternative data sources prior to predicting responses to climate change.
Conclusions  Novel climates prevented the development of a predictive model which relied only on native-range distribution and abundance data because certain parameters could not be fitted. In fact, predictions were more sensitive to parameter uncertainty than to climate change scenarios. Where uncertainty in parameter estimates affected predictions, it could be addressed through the inclusion of alternative data sources. However, this may not always be possible, for example in the absence of post-invasion data.     

Ecological and anthropogenic effects on the density of migratory and resident ungulates in a human‐inhabited protected area

Understanding the influence of environmental conditions and people on ungulate density and distribution is of key importance for conservation. We evaluated the effects of ecological and anthropogenic factors on the density of migratory wildebeest and zebra and resident oribi in Zambia's Liuwa Plain National Park where human settlements were present. We conducted transect surveys from 2010 to 2013 using distance sampling methods and then developed a set of 38 candidate models to describe results and predict density. Models included the effects of variables in three classes: environmental (year, season, vegetation, predominant grass height, burn, water presence), predation risk (hyaena density) and anthropogenic (distance to park boundary and settlements). Densities ranged from 6.2 to 60.8 individuals km^?2 for wildebeest, 1.1 to 14.5 individuals km^?2 for oribi and 1.8 to 8.1 individuals km^?2 for zebra. The most complex models were strongly supported for all three species. The magnitude and sign of variable effects differed among species, indicating that local densities of wildebeest, oribi and zebra are affected by a complex set of anthropogenic and ecological factors. Results reveal resource partitioning among ungulate species and indicate that predation risk and proximity to humans affect ungulate distributions with implications for managing migrations in the Greater Liuwa Ecosystem.