Spatial and temporal variation in population trends in a long‐distance migratory bird

Aim Over the past three decades, evidence has been growing that many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird populations have suffered sustained and severe declines. As causes of these declines exist across both the breeding and non‐breeding season, identifying potential drivers of population change is complex. In order to explore the roles of changes in regional and local environmental conditions on population change, we examine spatial and temporal variation in population trajectories of one of Europe’s most abundant Afro‐Palaearctic summer migrants, the willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus. Location Britain and Ireland. Methods We use national survey data from Britain and Ireland (BBS: BTO/RSPB/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey and CBS: BWI/NPWS/Heritage Council Countryside Breeding Survey) from 1994 to 2006 to model the spatial and temporal variation in willow warbler population trends. Results Across Britain and Ireland, population trends follow a gradient from sharp declines in the south and east of England to shallow declines and/or slight increases in parts of north and west England, across Scotland and Ireland. Decreasing the spatial scale of analysis reveals variation in both the rate and spatial extent of population change within central England and the majority of Scotland. The rates of population change also vary temporally; declines in the south of England are shallower now than at the start of the time series, whereas populations further north in Britain have undergone periods of increase and decline. Main conclusion These patterns suggest that regional‐scale drivers, such as changing climatic conditions, and local‐scale processes, such as habitat change, are interacting to produce spatially variable population trends. We discuss the potential mechanisms underlying these interactions and the challenges in addressing such changes at scales relevant to migratory species.     

Large‐scale geographic variation in iridescent structural ornaments of a long‐distance migratory bird

Iridescent colours produced during moult likely play an important role in pair formation in birds. We sought to quantify geographic variation in such colouration in a duck species, Eurasian teal Anas crecca, in winter (when mating occurs) to evaluate whether this variation reflects birds’ breeding origins or differential individual migration strategies in both males and females. We combined information on feather production region and individual attributes (body size, sex and age) of Eurasian teal from 82 wintering sites in France. Feather production region (moult site or natal origin) was inferred using feather deuterium values (δD_f). We performed spectral measurements to evaluate speculum colour and brightness contrasts for 1052 teal collected over four years. Colouration differed strongly among wintering regions, with birds wintering in eastern France exhibiting higher colour contrast than those wintering in the west. Body size and colouration were positively related. There were no differences in cohort‐specific δD_f values between separate wintering regions in France, indicating that within a winter quarter teal originated from areas across the entire breeding range. Overall, patterns of spatial variation in feather colouration were related most closely to body size which was consistent with predictions of a differential migration hypothesis, with larger and more colour‐contrasting birds wintering closer to their breeding grounds. Because moult speed is also known to affect colour production, early breeders or individuals that skipped reproduction may have invested more or earlier in their feather quality to gain potential advantages in monopolizing future mates.     

Ecological mismatches are moderated by local conditions for two populations of a long‐distance migratory bird

Ecological mismatches between reproductive events and seasonal resource peaks are frequently proposed to be a key driver of population dynamics resulting from global climate change. Many local populations are experiencing reduced reproductive success as a consequence of mismatches, but few mismatches have led to species‐level population declines. To better understand this apparent paradox, we investigated the breeding phenology and chick survival of two disjunct populations of Hudsonian godwits Limosa haemastica breeding at Churchill, Manitoba and Beluga River, Alaska. Only one population experienced a mismatch: godwits bred nearly one week after the onset of the invertebrate peak at Churchill because of asynchronous climatic change occurring throughout their annual cycle. However, chicks were not uniformly affected by the mismatch — growth rates and survival of young chicks were not correlated with invertebrate abundance, but older chicks tended to suffer lower survival rates on days of low invertebrate abundance. Ecological mismatches thus resulted in a complex array of consequences, but nonetheless contributed to reductions in chick survival. In contrast, godwits at Beluga River hatched their chicks just before the invertebrate peak, such that the period of highest energetic need coincided with the period of highest invertebrate abundance. As a result, growth rates and survival of godwit chicks were unaffected by invertebrate abundance. Godwits at Beluga River were able to properly time their reproduction because of predictable rates of climatic change and strong selection imposed by high predation on late‐hatched chicks. Taken together, our results suggest that population‐specific, local‐scale selection pressures play a critical role in determining the degree and severity of ecological mismatches. The potential for global climate change to induce species‐level population declines may therefore be mediated by the spatial variation in the selection pressures acting across a species’ range.     

Form,function and consequences of density dependence in a long‐distance migratory bird

The density dependence of demographic parameters and its implications for population regulation have long been recognized. Recent work has revealed potential effects of density on mating systems and sexual selection, but few studies concurrently assess the consequences of density on both demography and sexual selection. Such an approach is important because population processes and individual behaviors can interact to influence population growth and evolutionary trajectories. In this study, we tested the density dependence of breeding success, extra‐pair paternity, and the opportunity for sexual selection in a population of American redstarts Setophaga ruticilla using two different measures of density. To evaluate temporal patterns, we analyzed annual territory density, based on the total number of territories at our study site each year. To evaluate spatial patterns, we analyzed local territory density within years, based on the number of territories surrounding a focal territory. Greater annual density was associated with fewer offspring fledged per female, a reduced mean population rate of fledging success, and a lower relative contribution of extra‐pair paternity to male fitness. Greater local density was associated with fewer offspring fledged, reduced fledgling success, higher rates of nest loss, and higher rates of paternity loss on focal territories. Interestingly, greater local density was also associated with greater nestling mass on focal territories, which could imply that more densely‐packed territories contain superior resources. Overall, our results suggest that the effects of crowding via greater territory density reduce fecundity through increased nest predation, rather than reduced food availability, and increase rates of extra‐pair paternity. Thus, the selective pressures faced by individuals and their reproductive behaviors are likely to differ based on the annual and local density they experience, which may then feed back into population demography.     

Increase in protandry over time in a long‐distance migratory bird

Protandry is a widespread life‐history phenomenon describing how males precede females at the site or state of reproduction. In migratory birds, protandry has an important influence on individual fitness, the migratory syndrome, and phenological response to climate change. Despite its significance, accurate analyses on the dynamics of protandry using data sets collected at the breeding site, are lacking. Basing our study on records collected during two time periods, 1979 to 1988 and 2006 to 2016, we aim to investigate protandry dynamics over 38 years in a breeding population of willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus). Change in the timing of arrival was analyzed in males and females, and protandry (number of days between male and female arrival) was investigated both at population level and within breeding pairs. Our results show advancement in the arrival time at the breeding site in both sexes, but male arrival has advanced to a greater extent, leading to an increase in protandry both at the population level and within breeding pairs. We did not observe any change in sex ratio that could explain the protandry increase, but pronounced temperature change has occurred and been reported in the breeding area and along the migratory route. Typically, natural selection opposes too early arrival in males, but given warmer springs, this counteracting force may be relaxing, enabling an increase in protandry. We discuss whether our results suggest that climate change has induced sex‐specific effects, if these could be evolutionary and whether the timing of important life‐history stages such as arrival at the breeding site may change at different rates in males and females following environmental shifts.     

Body condition and feather molt of a migratory shorebird during the non‐breeding season

Migratory shorebirds have some of the highest fat loads among birds, especially species which migrate long distances. The upland sandpiper Bartramia longicauda makes long‐distance migrations twice a year, but variation in body condition or timing of feather molt during the non‐breeding season has not been studied. Molt is an important part of the annual cycle of migratory birds because feather condition determines flight performance during migration, and long‐distance movements are energetically costly. However, variation in body condition during molt has been poorly studied. The objective of our field study was to examine the timing and patterns of feather molt of a long distance migratory shorebird during the non‐breeding season and test for relationships with body size, fat depots, mass, and sex. Field work was conducted at four ranches in the Northern Campos of Uruguay (Paysandú and Salto Departments). We captured and marked 62 sandpipers in a 2‐month period (Nov–Jan) during four non‐breeding seasons (2008–2012). Sex was determined by genetic analyses of blood samples taken at capture. Molt was measured in captured birds using rank scores based on published standards. Body mass and tarsus length measurements showed female‐biased sexual size dimorphism with males smaller than females. Size‐corrected body mass (body condition) showed a U‐shaped relationship with the day of the season, indicating that birds arrived at non‐breeding grounds in relatively good condition. Arriving in good body condition at non‐breeding grounds is probably important because of the energetic demands due to physiological adjustments after migration and the costs of feather molt.     

Longitudinal data reveal ontogenetic changes in the wing morphology of a long‐distance migratory bird

In migratory bird species, juveniles normally have shorter and more rounded wings than adults. The causes of this age‐specific difference in wing morphology, however, are largely unknown. Here, we used longitudinal data collected over 3 years from a Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population to assess whether age‐related differences in wing morphology are a consequence of ontogenetic changes or of selection favouring birds with longer and more pointed wings. Our study provides evidence of ontogenetic changes in wing length and shape, whereby birds grow longer and more pointed wings as they grow older. Age‐dependent variation is likely to be adaptive and may partly explain age differences in spring migration phenology and breeding success.     

Annual survival and breeding dispersal of a migratory passerine,the Scissor‐tailed Flycatcher

Knowledge of survival rates is critical for advancing our understanding of the dynamics of populations and here we report apparent annual survival and breeding dispersal of Scissor‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus forficatus) breeding at two sites in southwest Oklahoma (Ft. Sill and Wichita Mountain Wildlife Refuge [WMWR]). Our Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber estimate of apparent adult survival for the period from 2008 to 2105 was relatively low (0.514) compared to estimates for 36 other migratory and socially monogamous passerines breeding in North America, and was independent of sex (males: N = 151; females: N = 119), breeding status (territory holder or floater), body mass, site, year, and precipitation during the year prior to breeding. Although apparent survival did not differ between sites, dispersal (N = 66 individuals) was more common and breeding dispersal distance (BDD) was greater for Scissor‐tailed Flycatchers at Ft. Sill where anthropogenic disturbance was more frequent. BDD also increased with body mass at Ft. Sill (but not at WMWR) and, after accounting for it, BDD at Ft. Sill tended to be greater for birds that failed to breed successfully in the past year. Older birds and males had the longest BDDs at WMWR, and males exhibited a similar tendency at Ft. Sill. We contend that our estimate of apparent survival is low, not because of inherently low survivorship, but, instead, as a consequence of frequent permanent emigration from our population. We also suggest that the greater BDD of older birds (WMWR) and males (both sites) reflects a history of selection for dispersal in response to frequent habitat disturbance. Frequent habitat disturbance, in addition to the opportunity to prospect for territories both before and after breeding, probably enable the earliest spring arrivals (typically older birds and males) to often relocate between years.     

Early arrival is not associated with more extra‐pair fertilizations in a long‐distance migratory bird

When assessing the benefits of early arrival date of migratory birds, a hidden and often ignored component of males’ fitness is the higher chance of early‐arriving birds to obtain extra‐pair fertilizations. Here we investigated how extra‐pair paternity might affect the relationship between male arrival date and number of fertilizations in a model study system, the European pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca. For this purpose, we sampled and genotyped breeding pairs, unpaired males and offspring (including embryos from unhatched eggs when possible) of a Dutch pied flycatcher population. Detailed information on arrival date of males, egg laying date of their social mates and nest success was also recorded. Early‐arriving males had early‐laying females and males with early‐laying females had a higher probability of siring extra‐pair eggs and obtain more fertilizations. However, male arrival date alone did not correlate with the probability to gain extra‐pair paternity and neither to the amount of fertilized eggs. Both early‐ and late‐arriving males had a higher probability of losing paternity in their own nest compared to birds with an intermediate arrival date. Finally, late‐arriving males were more likely to remain unpaired but, interestingly, a few of these birds obtained paternity via extra‐pair copulations. Because earlier arrival date did not lead to more extra‐pair fertilizations and because such relationship seems to be driven mainly by the female's laying date, we conclude that the contribution of extra‐pair paternity to the overall fitness benefits of early male arrival date is relatively small.     

Effects of rearing conditions on natal dispersal processes in a long‐lived predator bird

Natal or prebreeding dispersal is a key driver of the functioning, dynamics, and evolution of populations. Conditions experienced by individuals during development, that is, rearing conditions, may have serious consequences for the multiple components that shape natal dispersal processes. Rearing conditions vary as a result of differences in parental and environmental quality, and it has been shown that favorable rearing conditions are beneficial for individuals throughout their lives. However, the long‐term consequences of rearing conditions on natal dispersal are still not fully understood in long‐lived birds. In this study, we aim to test the following hypotheses to address the relationship between rearing conditions and certain components of the natal dispersal process in Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata): (1) The body condition of nestlings depends on the quality of the territory and/or breeders; and (2) the survival until recruitment, (3) the age of recruitment, and (4) the natal dispersal distance (NDD) all depend on rearing conditions. As expected, nestlings reared in territories with high past productivity of chicks had better body condition, which indicates that both body condition and past productivity reflect the rearing conditions under which chicks are raised. In addition, chicks raised in territories with high past productivity and with good body condition had greater chances of surviving until recruitment. Furthermore, birds that have better condition recruit earlier, and males recruit at a younger age than females. At last, although females in good body condition exhibited higher NDD when they recruited at younger ages, this pattern was not observed in either older females or males. Overall, this study provides evidence that rearing conditions have important long‐term consequences in long‐lived birds. On the basis of our results, we advocate that conservation managers work actively in the promotion of actions aimed at improving the rearing conditions under which individuals develop in threatened populations.     

Migration phenology and winter habitat quality are related to circulating androgen in a long‐distance migratory bird

In migratory birds, the timing of departure from wintering grounds is often dependant on the quality of habitat on an individual's territory and may influence individual fitness, resulting in an interaction of life history stages across large geographical distances. American redstart Setophaga ruticilla males who overwinter in high quality habitats arrive early to breed and subsequently produce more offspring than late arrivers. Since many migratory species overlap vernal migration with the physiological transition to breeding, we examined if breeding preparation plays a role in this seasonal interaction. We tested the hypothesis that early arriving male redstarts from high quality winter habitats are in superior breeding condition by simultaneously measuring winter habitat quality (stable‐carbon isotopes) and breeding preparation (circulating androgen, cloacal protuberance (CP) diameter) upon arrival at breeding grounds. Compared with late arrivers, early arriving males were from higher quality winter habitats and had higher androgen, but smaller CPs. Males arriving with higher androgen were in more advanced physiological migratory condition, as measured by haematocrit. Early arrivers were more likely to successfully breed, but there was no significant relationship between androgen upon arrival and breeding success. One possible explanation for these relationships is that androgen measured during arrival is most relevant in a migratory context, such that birds with high androgen may benefit from effects on migratory condition, positively influencing fitness through earlier arrival.     

Fine‐scale habitat use during the non‐breeding season suggests that winter habitat does not limit breeding populations of a declining long‐distance Palearctic migrant

For migrant birds, which habitats are suitable during the non‐breeding season influences habitat availability, population resilience to habitat loss, and ultimately survival. Consequently, habitat preferences during winter and whether habitat segregation according to age and sex occurs directly influences migration ecology, survival and breeding success. We tested the fine‐scale habitat preferences of a declining Palearctic migrant, the whinchat Saxicola rubetra, on its wintering grounds in west Africa. We explored the influence of habitat at the territory‐scale and whether dominance‐based habitat occupancy occurs by describing the variation in habitat characteristics across wintering territories, the degree of habitat change within territories held throughout winter, and whether habitat characteristics influenced territory size and space‐use within territories or differed with age and sex. Habitat characteristics varied substantially across territories and birds maintained the same territories even though habitat changed significantly throughout winter. We found no evidence of dominance‐based habitat occupancy; instead, territories were smaller if they contained more perching shrubs or maize crops, and areas with more perching shrubs were used more often within territories, likely because perches are important for foraging and territory defence. Our findings suggest that whinchats have non‐specialised habitat requirements within their wintering habitat of open savannah and farmland, and respond to habitat variation by adjusting territory size and space‐use within their territories instead of competing with conspecifics. Whinchats show a tolerance for human‐modified habitats and results support previous findings that some crop types may provide high‐quality wintering habitat by increasing perch density and foraging opportunities. By having non‐specialised requirements within broad winter habitat types, migrants are likely to be flexible to changing wintering conditions in Africa, both within and across winters, so possibly engendering some resilience to the rapid anthropogenic habitat degradation occurring throughout their wintering range.     

Multiple density-dependence mechanisms regulate a migratory bird population during the breeding season

The mechanisms regulating bird populations are poorly understood and controversial. We provide evidence that a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens), is regulated by multiple density-dependence mechanisms in its breeding quarters. Evidence of regulation includes: stability in population density during 1969-2002, strong density dependence in time-series analyses of this period, an inverse relationship between warbler density and annual fecundity, and a positive relationship between annual fecundity and recruitment of yearlings in the subsequent breeding season. Tests of the mechanisms causing regulation were carried out within the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, during 1997-1999. When individuals from abutting territories were experimentally removed in a homogeneous patch of high-quality habitat, the fecundity of focal pairs nearly doubled, revealing a locally operating crowding mechanism. A site-dependence mechanism was indicated by an inverse relationship between population size and mean territory quality, as well as by greater annual fecundity on the sites that were most frequently occupied and of highest quality. These site-dependence relationships were revealed by intensive monitoring of territory quality and demography at the landscape spatial scale. Crowding and site-dependence mechanisms, therefore, acted simultaneously but at different spatial scales to regulate local abundance of this migratory bird population.     

Adding energy gradients and long‐distance dispersal to a neutral model improves predictions of Madagascan bird diversity

Macroecological patterns are likely the result of both stochastically neutral mechanisms and deterministic differences between species. In Madagascar, the simplest stochastically neutral hypothesis – the mid‐domain effects (MDE) hypothesis – has already been rejected. However, rejecting the MDE hypothesis does not necessarily refute the existence of all other neutral mechanisms. Here, we test whether adding complexity to a basic neutral model improves predictions of biodiversity patterns. The simplest MDE model assumes that: (1) species' ranges are continuous and unfragmented, (2) are randomly located throughout the landscape, and (3) can be stacked independently and indefinitely. We designed a simulation based on neutral theory that allowed us to weaken each of these assumptions incrementally by adjusting the habitat capacity as well as the likelihood of short‐ and long‐distance dispersal. Simulated outputs were compared to four empirical patterns of bird diversity: the frequency distributions of species richness and range size, the within‐island latitudinal diversity gradient, and the distance‐decay of species compositional similarity. Neutral models emulated empirical diversity patterns for Madagascan birds accurately. The frequency distribution of range size, latitudinal diversity gradient, and the distance‐decay of species compositional similarity could be attributed to stochastic long‐distance migration events and zero‐sum population dynamics. However, heterogenous environmental gradients improved predictions of the frequency distribution of species richness. Patterns of bird diversity in Madagascar can broadly be attributed to stochastic long‐distance migration events and zero‐sum population dynamics. This implies that rejecting simple hypotheses, such as MDE, does not serve as evidence against stochastic processes in general. However, environmental gradients were necessary to explain patterns of species richness and deterministic differences between species are probably important for explaining the distributions of narrow‐range and endemic species.     

“Closer‐to‐home” strategy benefits juvenile survival in a long‐distance migratory bird

Human‐induced changes in the climate and environment that occur at an unprecedented speed are challenging the existence of migratory species. Faced with these new challenges, species with diverse and flexible migratory behaviors may suffer less from population decline, as they may be better at responding to these changes by altering their migratory behavior. At the individual level, variations in migratory behavior may lead to differences in fitness and subsequently influence the population's demographic dynamics. Using lifetime GPS bio‐logging data from 169 white storks (Ciconia ciconia), we explore whether the recently shortened migration distance of storks affects their survival during different stages of their juvenile life. We also explore how other variations in migratory decisions (i.e., time, destination), movement activity (measured using overall body dynamic acceleration), and early life conditions influence juvenile survival. We observed that their first autumn migration was the riskiest period for juvenile white storks. Individuals that migrated shorter distances and fledged earlier experienced lower mortality risks. In addition, higher movement activity and overwintering “closer‐to‐home” (with 84.21% of the tracked individuals stayed Europe or North Africa) were associated with higher survival. Our study shows how avian migrants can change life history decisions over only a few decades, and thus it helps us to understand and predict how migrants respond to the rapidly changing world.     

Costs and benefits of non‐random seed release for long‐distance dispersal in wind‐dispersed plant species

The dispersal ability of plants is a major factor driving ecological responses to global change. In wind‐dispersed plant species, non‐random seed release in relation to wind speeds has been identified as a major determinant of dispersal distances. However, little information is available about the costs and benefits of non‐random abscission and the consequences of timing for dispersal distances. We asked: 1) to what extent is non‐random abscission able to promote long‐distance dispersal and what is the effect of potentially increased pre‐dispersal risk costs? 2) Which meteorological factors and respective timescales are important for maximizing dispersal? These questions were addressed by combining a mechanistic modelling approach and field data collection for herbaceous wind‐dispersed species. Model optimization with a dynamic dispersal approach using measured hourly wind speed showed that plants can increase long‐distance dispersal by developing a hard wind speed threshold below which no seeds are released. At the same time, increased risk costs limit the possibilities for dispersal distance gain and reduce the optimum level of the wind speed threshold, in our case (under representative Dutch meteorological conditions) to a threshold of 5–6 m s^–1. The frequency and predictability (auto‐correlation in time) of pre‐dispersal seed‐loss had a major impact on optimal non‐random abscission functions and resulting dispersal distances. We observed a similar, but more gradual, bias towards higher wind speeds in six out of seven wind‐dispersed species under natural conditions. This confirmed that non‐random abscission exists in many species and that, under local Dutch meteorological conditions, abscission was biased towards winds exceeding 5–6 m s^–1. We conclude that timing of seed release can vastly enhance dispersal distances in wind‐dispersed species, but increased risk costs may greatly limit the benefits of selecting wind conditions for long‐distance dispersal, leading to moderate seed abscission thresholds, depending on local meteorological conditions and disturbances.     

Information collected during the post-breeding season guides future breeding decisions in a migratory bird

Breeding habitat choice and investment decisions are key contributors to fitness in animals. Density of individuals is a well-known cue of habitat quality