Forest bioenergy climate impact can be improved by allocating forest residue removal

Bioenergy from forest residues can be used to avoid fossil carbon emissions, but removing biomass from forests reduces carbon stock sizes and carbon input to litter and soil. The magnitude and longevity of these carbon stock changes determine how effective measures to utilize bioenergy from forest residues are to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector and to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimate the variability of GHG emissions and consequent climate impacts resulting from producing bioenergy from stumps, branches and residual biomass of forest thinning operations in Finland, and the contribution of the variability in key factors, i.e. forest residue diameter, tree species, geographical location of the forest biomass removal site and harvesting method, to the emissions and their climate impact. The GHG emissions and the consequent climate impacts estimated as changes in radiative forcing were comparable to fossil fuels when bioenergy production from forest residues was initiated. The emissions and climate impacts decreased over time because forest residues were predicted to decompose releasing CO₂ even if left in the forest. Both were mainly affected by forest residue diameter and climatic conditions of the forest residue collection site. Tree species and the harvest method of thinning wood (whole tree or stem‐only) had a smaller effect on the magnitude of emissions. The largest reduction in the energy production climate impacts after 20 years, up to 62%, was achieved when coal was replaced by the branches collected from Southern Finland, whereas the smallest reduction 7% was gained by using stumps from Northern Finland instead of natural gas. After 100 years the corresponding values were 77% and 21%. The choice of forest residue biomass collected affects significantly the emissions and climate impacts of forest bioenergy.     

Indirect carbon dioxide emissions from producing bioenergy from forest harvest residues

Forest harvest residues are important raw materials for bioenergy in regions practicing forestry. Removing these residues from a harvest site reduces the carbon stock of the forest compared with conventional stem‐only harvest because less litter in left on the site. The indirect carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission from producing bioenergy occur when carbon in the logging residues is emitted into the atmosphere at once through combustion, instead of being released little by little as a result of decomposition at the harvest sites. In this study (1) we introduce an approach to calculate this indirect emission from using logging residues for bioenergy production, and (2) estimate this emission at a typical target of harvest residue removal, i.e. boreal Norway spruce forest in Finland. The removal of stumps caused a larger indirect emission per unit of energy produced than the removal of branches because of a lower decomposition rate of the stumps. The indirect emission per unit of energy produced decreased with time since starting to collect the harvest residues as a result of decomposition at older harvest sites. During the 100 years of conducting this practice, the indirect emission from average‐sized branches (diameter 2 cm) decreased from 340 to 70 kg CO₂ eq. MWh^?1 and that from stumps (diameter 26 cm) from 340 to 160 kg CO₂ eq. MWh^?1. These emissions are an order of magnitude larger than the other emissions (collecting, transporting, etc.) from the bioenergy production chain. When the bioenergy production was started, the total emissions were comparable to fossil fuels. The practice had to be carried out for 22 (stumps) or four (branches) years until the total emissions dropped below the emissions of natural gas. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for land‐use‐related indirect emissions to correctly estimate the efficiency of bioenergy in reducing CO₂ emission into the atmosphere.     

Is woody bioenergy carbon neutral? A comparative assessment of emissions from consumption of woody bioenergy and fossil fuel

Under the current accounting systems, emissions produced when biomass is burnt for energy are accounted as zero, resulting in what is referred to as the ‘carbon neutrality’ assumption. However, if current harvest levels are increased to produce more bioenergy, carbon that would have been stored in the biosphere might be instead released in the atmosphere. This study utilizes a comparative approach that considers emissions under alternative energy supply options. This approach shows that the emission benefits of bioenergy compared to use of fossil fuel are time‐dependent. It emerges that the assumption that bioenergy always results in zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to use of fossil fuels can be misleading, particularly in the context of short‐to‐medium term goals. While it is clear that all sources of woody bioenergy from sustainably managed forests will produce emission reductions in the long term, different woody biomass sources have various impacts in the short‐medium term. The study shows that the use of forest residues that are easily decomposable can produce GHG benefits compared to use of fossil fuels from the beginning of their use and that biomass from dedicated plantations established on marginal land can be carbon neutral from the beginning of its use. However, the risk of short‐to‐medium term negative impacts is high when additional fellings are extracted to produce bioenergy and the proportion of felled biomass used for bioenergy is low, or when land with high C stocks is converted to low productivity bioenergy plantations. The method used in the study provides an instrument to identify the time‐dependent pattern of emission reductions for alternative bioenergy sources. In this way, decision makers can evaluate which bioenergy options are most beneficial for meeting short‐term GHG emission reduction goals and which ones are more appropriate for medium to longer term objectives.     

Carbon balance indicator for forest bioenergy scenarios

A carbon (C) balance indicator is presented for the evaluation of forest bioenergy scenarios as a means to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A bioenergy‐intensive scenario with a greater harvest is compared to a baseline scenario. The relative carbon indicator (RC) is defined as the ratio between the difference in terrestrial C stocks – that is the C debt – and the difference in cumulative bioenergy harvest between the scenarios, over a selected time frame T. A value of zero indicates no C debt from additional biomass harvests, while a value of one indicates a C debt equal to the amount of additionally harvested biomass C. Multiplying the RC indicator by the smokestack emission factor of biomass (approximately 110 t CO₂/TJ) provides the net cumulative CO₂ emission factor of the biomass combustion as a function of T, allowing a direct comparison with the emission factors of comparable fossil fuels. The indicator is applied to bioenergy cases in Finland, where typically the rotation length of managed forests is long and the decay rate of harvest residues is slow. The country‐level examples illustrate that although Finnish forests remain as a C sink in each of the considered scenarios, the efforts of increasing forest bioenergy may still increase the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in comparison with the baseline scenario and use of fossil fuels. The results also show that the net emission factor depends – besides on forest‐growth or residue‐decay dynamics – on the timing and evolution of harvests as well. Unlike for the constant fossil C emission factor, the temporal profile of bioenergy use is of great importance for the net emission factor of biomass.     

Large‐scale bioenergy from additional harvest of forest biomass is neither sustainable nor greenhouse gas neutral

Owing to the peculiarities of forest net primary production humans would appropriate ca. 60% of the global increment of woody biomass if forest biomass were to produce 20% of current global primary energy supply. We argue that such an increase in biomass harvest would result in younger forests, lower biomass pools, depleted soil nutrient stocks and a loss of other ecosystem functions. The proposed strategy is likely to miss its main objective, i.e. to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because it would result in a reduction of biomass pools that may take decades to centuries to be paid back by fossil fuel substitution, if paid back at all. Eventually, depleted soil fertility will make the production unsustainable and require fertilization, which in turn increases GHG emissions due to N₂O emissions. Hence, large‐scale production of bioenergy from forest biomass is neither sustainable nor GHG neutral.     

Range and uncertainties in estimating delays in greenhouse gas mitigation potential of forest bioenergy sourced from Canadian forests

Accurately assessing the delay before the substitution of fossil fuel by forest bioenergy starts having a net beneficial impact on atmospheric CO₂ is becoming important as the cost of delaying GHG emission reductions is increasingly being recognized. We documented the time to carbon (C) parity of forest bioenergy sourced from different feedstocks (harvest residues, salvaged trees, and green trees), typical of forest biomass production in Canada, used to replace three fossil fuel types (coal, oil, and natural gas) in heating or power generation. The time to C parity is defined as the time needed for the newly established bioenergy system to reach the cumulative C emissions of a fossil fuel, counterfactual system. Furthermore, we estimated an uncertainty period derived from the difference in C parity time between predefined best‐ and worst‐case scenarios, in which parameter values related to the supply chain and forest dynamics varied. The results indicate short‐to‐long ranking of C parity times for residues < salvaged trees < green trees and for substituting the less energy‐dense fossil fuels (coal < oil < natural gas). A sensitivity analysis indicated that silviculture and enhanced conversion efficiency, when occurring only in the bioenergy system, help reduce time to C parity. The uncertainty around the estimate of C parity time is generally small and inconsequential in the case of harvest residues but is generally large for the other feedstocks, indicating that meeting specific C parity time using feedstock other than residues is possible, but would require very specific conditions. Overall, the use of single parity time values to evaluate the performance of a particular feedstock in mitigating GHG emissions should be questioned given the importance of uncertainty as an inherent component of any bioenergy project.     

Carbon debt repayment or carbon sequestration parity? Lessons from a forest bioenergy case study in Ontario,Canada

Forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with energy production. We assessed changes in GHG emissions resulting from displacement of coal with wood pellets for the Atikokan Generating Station located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. Two contrasting biomass sources were considered for continuous wood pellet production: harvest residue from current harvest operations (residue scenario) and fibre from expanded harvest of standing live trees (stemwood scenario). For the stemwood scenario, two metrics were used to assess the effects of displacing coal with forest biomass on GHG emissions: (i) time to carbon sequestration parity, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in regenerating forest equalled the amount of forest carbon without harvest for energy production; and (ii) time to carbon debt repayment, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in the regenerating forest equalled forest carbon at the time of harvest. Only time to carbon sequestration parity was used for the residue scenario. In the residue scenario, carbon sequestration parity was achieved within 1 year. In the stemwood scenario, times to carbon sequestration parity and carbon debt repayment were 91 and 112 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that estimates were robust when parameter values were varied. Modelling experiments showed that increasing growth rates for regenerating stands in the stemwood scenario could substantially reduce time to carbon sequestration parity. We discuss the use of the two metrics (time to carbon sequestration parity and time to carbon debt repayment) for assessing the effects of forest bioenergy projects on GHG emissions and make recommendations on terminology and methodologies for forest bioenergy studies.     

Implications of emissions timing on the cost‐effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: application to forest bioenergy systems

Conventional cost‐effectiveness calculations ignore the implications of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions timing and thus may not properly inform decision‐makers in the efficient allocation of resources to mitigate climate change. To begin to address this disconnect with climate change science, we modify the conventional cost‐effectiveness approach to account for emissions timing. GHG emissions flows occurring over time are translated into an ‘Equivalent Present Emission’ based on radiative forcing, enabling a comparison of system costs and emissions on a consistent present time basis. We apply this ‘Present Cost‐Effectiveness’ method to case studies of biomass‐based electricity generation (biomass co‐firing with coal, biomass cogeneration) to evaluate implications of forest carbon trade‐offs on the cost‐effectiveness of emission reductions. Bioenergy production from forest biomass can reduce forest carbon stocks, an immediate emissions source that contributes to atmospheric greenhouse gases. Forest carbon impacts thereby lessen emission reductions in the near‐term relative to the assumption of biomass ‘carbon neutrality’, resulting in higher costs of emission reductions when emissions timing is considered. In contrast, conventional cost‐effectiveness approaches implicitly evaluate strategies over an infinite analytical time horizon, underestimating nearer term emissions reduction costs and failing to identify pathways that can most efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation objectives over shorter time spans (e.g. up to 100 years). While providing only a simple representation of the climate change implications of emissions timing, the Present Cost‐Effectiveness method provides a straightforward approach to assessing the cost‐effectiveness of emission reductions associated with any climate change mitigation strategy where future GHG reductions require significant initial capital investment or increase near‐term emissions. Timing is a critical factor in determining the attractiveness of any investment; accounting for emissions timing can better inform decisions related to the merit of alternative resource uses to meet near‐, mid‐, and long‐term climate change mitigation objectives.     

森林经营与管理下的温室气体排放、碳泄漏和净固碳量研究进展

森林在减缓全球气候变化和大气CO₂浓度升高上具有重要作用.森林经营与管理下的新造林和森林保护具有显著的固碳功能,其中,新造林和森林保护的固碳速率分别为0.04～7.52、0.33～5.20 t C·hm^-2·a^-1.同时,营造林过程中物资的生产和运输导致边界内产生温室气体排放;营造林导致的活动转移、市场效应和生态环境变化导致边界外产生碳泄漏.本文综述了国内外森林经营与管理活动边界内温室气体排放源的界定、计量方法、温室气体排放量与排放速率;边界外碳泄漏的类型、计量方法与碳泄漏量;净固碳量以及温室气体排放和碳泄漏对固碳的抵消强度.边界内温室气体排放对固碳的抵消强度为0.01%～19.3%,进一步考虑碳泄漏时可增至95%.若仅考虑森林经营与管理在边界内直接产生的温室气体排放与可测量的活动转移碳泄漏,森林经营与管理具有较好的净固碳效益,且相比于农田固碳措施在温室气体净减排方面具有更好的应用前景.随着我国各项重大生态工程新一期的开展和对工程固碳效益的关注,为增加重大生态工程对温室气体的净减排量,有必要在工程开展前进行合理规划、在工程开展过程中加强控制和监测以减少工程实施导致的边界内温室气体排放和边界外碳泄漏.     

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of furniture and bioenergy production from oil palm trunks

The palm oil industry constantly attempts to increase the sustainability along the entire palm oil value chain. One important strategy is to utilize all co‐products. Oil palm trunks, which become available upon replanting of existing plantations, represent an important and increasing flow of underexploited biomass. In recent years, innovative technologies are emerging to use them for producing furniture or plywood or providing bioenergy. We assessed the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of such products and the greenhouse gas emission savings due to replaced alternative products. Although challenging material properties result in a relatively high energy demand and related greenhouse gas emissions in the oil palm wood processing, substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can arise from producing furniture or bioenergy from oil palm trunks, especially if the process energy demand is met by the energy recovery from oil palm wood‐processing residues.     

A global meta‐analysis of forest bioenergy greenhouse gas emission accounting studies

The potential greenhouse gas benefits of displacing fossil energy with biofuels are driving policy development in the absence of complete information. The potential carbon neutrality of forest biomass is a source of considerable scientific debate because of the complexity of dynamic forest ecosystems, varied feedstock types, and multiple energy production pathways. The lack of scientific consensus leaves decision makers struggling with contradicting technical advice. Analyzing previously published studies, our goal was to identify and prioritize those attributes of bioenergy greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis that are most influential on length of carbon payback period. We investigated outcomes of 59 previously published forest biomass greenhouse gas emissions research studies published between 1991 and 2014. We identified attributes for each study and classified study cases by attributes. Using classification and regression tree analysis, we identified those attributes that are strong predictors of carbon payback period (e.g. the time required by the forest to recover through sequestration the carbon dioxide from biomass combusted for energy). The inclusion of wildfire dynamics proved to be the most influential in determining carbon payback period length compared to other factors such as feedstock type, baseline choice, and the incorporation of leakage calculations. Additionally, we demonstrate that evaluation criteria consistency is required to facilitate equitable comparison between projects. For carbon payback period calculations to provide operational insights to decision makers, future research should focus on creating common accounting principles for the most influential factors including temporal scale, natural disturbances, system boundaries, GHG emission metrics, and baselines.     

西双版纳地区森林变化碳效应与生态效益评估

减少发展中国家因森林砍伐与森林退化导致的碳排放和保持碳储量(REDD+),不仅能减少因森林砍伐和森林退化造成的碳排放,而且还可以带来其它生态效益,如减缓森林破碎化、保护生物多样性和增强水土保持功能等。以中国的西双版纳地区为研究区域,以毁林最严重的1976—2007年为REDD+基线,基于卫星影像,并结合植被指数,提取了研究区的土地利用变化信息。基于IPCC温室气体清单方法,计算了研究区的森林碳储量变化。在此基础上,对REDD+的碳汇效益和生态效益进行了系统综合评估。结果显示：(1)1976—2007年间天然林碳储量从占总碳储量的78.24%减少至50.52%,这是造成西双版纳地区碳储量减少的主要原因。(2)1976—2007年,天然林的斑块数量和平均最近邻距离分别增加了120.00%和25.21%,平均斑块面积下降了71.98%,说明天然林的破碎化程度加剧。从研究区整体景观格局来看,斑块数量、Shannon多样性指数和Shannon均一性指数分别增加了8.16%、51.39%和34.07%;与此同时,平均斑块面积和景观内聚力指数分别下降了26.26%和2.13%,表明研究区整体景观格局...     

Mitigation potential and environmental impact of centralized versus distributed BECCS with domestic biomass production in Great Britain

New contingency policy plans are expected to be published by the United Kingdom government to set out urgent actions, such as carbon capture and storage, greenhouse gas removal and the use of sustainable bioenergy to meet the greenhouse gas reduction targets of the 4th and 5th Carbon Budgets. In this study, we identify two plausible bioenergy production pathways for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) based on centralized and distributed energy systems to show what BECCS could look like if deployed by 2050 in Great Britain. The extent of agricultural land available to sustainably produce biomass feedstock in the centralized and distributed energy systems is about 0.39 and 0.5 Mha, providing approximately 5.7 and 7.3 Mt_DM/year of biomass respectively. If this land‐use change occurred, bioenergy crops would contribute to reduced agricultural soil GHG emission by 9 and 11 /year in the centralized and distributed energy systems respectively. In addition, bioenergy crops can contribute to reduce agricultural soil ammonia emissions and water pollution from soil nitrate leaching, and to increase soil organic carbon stocks. The technical mitigation potentials from BECCS lead to projected CO₂ reductions of approximately 18 and 23 /year from the centralized and distributed energy systems respectively. This suggests that the domestic supply of sustainable biomass would not allow the emission reduction target of 50 /year from BECCS to be met. To meet that target, it would be necessary to produce solid biomass from forest systems on 0.59 or 0.49 Mha, or alternatively to import 8 or 6.6 Mt_DM/year of biomass for the centralized and distributed energy system respectively. The spatially explicit results of this study can serve to identify the regional differences in the potential capture of CO₂ from BECCS, providing the basis for the development of onshore CO₂ transport infrastructures.     

Life cycle assessment tool for estimating net CO2 exchange of forest production

The study describes an integrated impact assessment tool for the net carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange in forest production. The components of the net carbon exchange include the uptake of carbon into biomass, the decomposition of litter and humus, emissions from forest management operations and carbon released from the combustion of biomass and degradation of wood‐based products. The tool enables the allocation of the total carbon emissions to the timber and energy biomass and to the energy produced on the basis of biomass. In example computations, ecosystem model simulations were utilized as an input to the tool. We present results for traditional timber production (pulpwood and saw logs) and integrated timber and bioenergy production (logging residues, stumps and roots) for Norway spruce, in boreal conditions in Finland, with two climate scenarios over one rotation period. The results showed that the magnitude of management related emissions on net carbon exchange was smaller when compared with the total ecosystem fluxes; decomposition being the largest emission contributor. In addition, the effects of management and climate were higher on the decomposition of new humus compared with old humus. The results also showed that probable increased biomass growth, obtained under the changing climate (CC), could not compensate for decomposition and biomass combustion related carbon loss in southern Finland. In our examples, the emissions allocated for the energy from biomass in southern Finland were 172 and 188 kg CO₂ MW h^?1 in the current climate and in a CC, respectively, and 199 and 157 kg CO₂ MW h^?1 in northern Finland. This study concludes that the tool is suitable for estimating the net carbon exchange of forest production. The tool also enables the allocation of direct and indirect carbon emissions, related to forest production over its life cycle, in different environmental conditions and for alternative time periods and land uses. Simulations of forest management regimes together with the CC give new insights into ecologically sustainable forest bioenergy and timber production, as well as climate change mitigation options in boreal forests.     

Effect of Change of Forest Carbon Storage on Net Carbon Dioxide Balance of Wood Use for Energy in Japan

This study analyzed the net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions between 2005 and 2050 by using wood for energy under various scenarios of forest management and energy conversion technology in Japan, considering both CO₂ emission reductions from replacement of fossil fuels and changes in carbon storage in forests. According to our model, wood production for energy results in a significant reduction of carbon storage levels in forests (by 46% to 77% in 2050 from the 2005 level). Thus, the net CO₂ emission reduction when wood is used for energy becomes drastically smaller. Conventional tree production for energy increases net CO₂ emissions relative to preserving forests, but fast‐growing tree production may reduce net CO₂ emissions more than preserving forests does. When wood from fast‐growing trees is used to generate electricity with gas turbines, displacing natural gas, the net CO₂ emission reduction from the combination of fast‐growing trees and electricity generation with gas turbines is about 58% of the CO₂ emission reduction from electricity generation from gas turbines alone in 2050, and an energy conversion efficiency of around 20% or more is required to obtain net reductions over the entire period until 2050. When wood is used to produce bioethanol, displacing gasoline, net reductions are realized after 2030, provided that heat energy is recovered from residues from ethanol production. These results show the importance of considering the change in carbon storage when estimating the net CO₂ emission reduction effect of the wood use for energy.     

Sustainable limits to crop residue harvest for bioenergy: maintaining soil carbon in Australia's agricultural lands

The use of crop residues for bioenergy production needs to be carefully assessed because of the potential negative impact on the level of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The impact varies with environmental conditions and crop management practices and needs to be considered when harvesting the residue for bioenergy productions. Here, we defined the sustainable harvest limits as the maximum rates that do not diminish SOC and quantified sustainable harvest limits for wheat residue across Australia's agricultural lands. We divided the study area into 9432 climate‐soil (CS) units and simulated the dynamics of SOC in a continuous wheat cropping system over 122 years (1889 – 2010) using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM). We simulated management practices including six fertilization rates (0, 25, 50, 75, 100, and 200 kg N ha^?1) and five residue harvest rates (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100%). We mapped the sustainable limits for each fertilization rate and assessed the effects of fertilization and three key environmental variables – initial SOC, temperature, and precipitation – on sustainable residue harvest rates. We found that, with up to 75 kg N ha^?1 fertilization, up to 75% and 50% of crop residue could be sustainably harvested in south‐western and south‐eastern Australia, respectively. Higher fertilization rates achieved little further increase in sustainable residue harvest rates. Sustainable residue harvest rates were principally determined by climate and soil conditions, especially the initial SOC content and temperature. We conclude that environmental conditions and management practices should be considered to guide the harvest of crop residue for bioenergy production and thereby reduce greenhouse gas emissions during the life cycle of bioenergy production.     

Projection of the future EU forest CO2 sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models

Forests of the European Union (EU) have been intensively managed for decades, and they have formed a significant sink for carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere over the past 50 years. The reasons for this behavior are multiple, among them are: forest aging, area expansion, increasing plant productivity due to environmental changes of many kinds, and, most importantly, the growth rates of European forest having been higher than harvest rates. EU countries have agreed to reduce total emissions of GHG by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, excluding the forest sink. A relevant question for climate policy is: how long will the current sink of EU forests be maintained in the near future? And could it be affected by other mitigation measures such as bioenergy? In this article we assess tradeoffs of bioenergy use and carbon sequestration at large scale and describe results of the comparison of two advanced forest management models that are used to project CO₂ emissions and removals from EU forests until 2030. EFISCEN, a detailed statistical matrix model and G4M, a geographically explicit economic forestry model, use scenarios of future harvest rates and forest growth information to estimate the future carbon balance of forest biomass. Two scenarios were assessed: the EU baseline scenario and the EU reference scenario (including additional bioenergy and climate policies). Our projections suggest a significant decline of the sink until 2030 in the baseline scenario of about 25–40% (or 65–125 Mt CO₂) compared to the models’ 2010 estimate. Including additional bioenergy targets of EU member states has an effect on the development of this sink, which is not accounted in the EU emission reduction target. A sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of future wood demand and proved the importance of this driver for the future sink development.     

Wood pellets,what else? Greenhouse gas parity times of European electricity from wood pellets produced in the south‐eastern United States using different softwood feedstocks

Several EU countries import wood pellets from the south‐eastern United States. The imported wood pellets are (co‐)fired in power plants with the aim of reducing overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity and meeting EU renewable energy targets. To assess whether GHG emissions are reduced and on what timescale, we construct the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity. This GHG balance consists of supply chain and combustion GHG emissions, carbon sequestration during biomass growth and avoided GHG emissions through replacing fossil electricity. We investigate wood pellets from four softwood feedstock types: small roundwood, commercial thinnings, harvest residues and mill residues. Per feedstock, the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity is compared against those of alternative scenarios. Alternative scenarios are combinations of alternative fates of the feedstock materials, such as in‐forest decomposition, or the production of paper or wood panels like oriented strand board (OSB). Alternative scenario composition depends on feedstock type and local demand for this feedstock. Results indicate that the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity equals that of alternative scenarios within 0–21 years (the GHG parity time), after which wood‐pellet electricity has sustained climate benefits. Parity times increase by a maximum of 12 years when varying key variables (emissions associated with paper and panels, soil carbon increase via feedstock decomposition, wood‐pellet electricity supply chain emissions) within maximum plausible ranges. Using commercial thinnings, harvest residues or mill residues as feedstock leads to the shortest GHG parity times (0–6 years) and fastest GHG benefits from wood‐pellet electricity. We find shorter GHG parity times than previous studies, for we use a novel approach that differentiates feedstocks and considers alternative scenarios based on (combinations of) alternative feedstock fates, rather than on alternative land uses. This novel approach is relevant for bioenergy derived from low‐value feedstocks.     

排放与森林碳汇作用下云南省碳净排放量估计

以云南省为例,用马尔科夫链计算能源结构,在经济增长模型基础上基于动态最优化理论估计能源消费碳排放,并基于CO₂FIX模型计算云南省森林碳汇,预测在能源消费碳排放和森林碳汇共同作用下的从2008到2050年碳净排放量。研究发现云南省能源消费碳排放量和碳净排放量曲线都呈"倒U"型,在2035年达到高峰,高峰值分别为和129.71 MtC和118.89 MtC;在森林碳汇中,原有森林的碳汇作用在现在和未来一段时间内处于主导地位,但新造林有着巨大的碳汇潜力,所以在保护原有森林的同时要植树造林,从生态学角度抵消碳排放;森林碳汇只能减少小部分碳排放,更主要的是改善云南省的能源结构,加快技术进步速度,开发水电等新能源,从根本上减少温室气体的排放。     

Shrimp ponds lead to massive loss of soil carbon and greenhouse gas emissions in northeastern Brazilian mangroves

Mangroves of the semiarid Caatinga region of northeastern Brazil are being rapidly converted to shrimp pond aquaculture. To determine ecosystem carbon stocks and potential greenhouse gas emissions from this widespread land use, we measured carbon stocks of eight mangrove forests and three shrimp ponds in the Acaraú and Jaguaribe watersheds in Ceará state, Brazil. The shrimp ponds were paired with adjacent intact mangroves to ascertain carbon losses and potential emissions from land conversion. The mean total ecosystem carbon stock of mangroves in this semiarid tropical landscape was 413 ± 94 Mg C/ha. There were highly significant differences in the ecosystem carbon stocks between the two sampled estuaries suggesting caution when extrapolating carbon stock across different estuaries even in the same landscape. Conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds resulted in losses of 58%–82% of the ecosystem carbon stocks. The mean potential emissions arising from mangrove conversion to shrimp ponds was 1,390 Mg CO₂e/ha. Carbon losses were largely from soils which accounted for 81% of the total emission. Losses from soils >100 cm in depth accounted for 33% of the total ecosystem carbon loss. Soil carbon losses from shrimp pond conversion are equivalent to about 182 years of soil carbon accumulation. Losses from mangrove conversion are about 10‐fold greater than emissions from conversion of upland tropical dry forest in the Brazilian Caatinga underscoring the potential value for their inclusion in climate change mitigation activities.