Renewable jet fuel supply scenarios in the European Union in 2021–2030 in the context of proposed biofuel policy and competing biomass demand

This study presents supply scenarios of nonfood renewable jet fuel (RJF) in the European Union (EU) toward 2030, based on the anticipated regulatory context, availability of biomass and conversion technologies, and competing biomass demand from other sectors (i.e., transport, heat, power, and chemicals). A cost optimization model was used to identify preconditions for increased RJF production and the associated emission reductions, costs, and impact on competing sectors. Model scenarios show nonfood RJF supply could increase from 1 PJ in 2021 to 165–261 PJ/year (3.8–6.1 million tonne (Mt)/year) by 2030, provided advanced biofuel technologies are developed and adequate (policy) incentives are present. This supply corresponds to 6%–9% of jet fuel consumption and 28%–41% of total nonfood biofuel consumption in the EU. These results are driven by proposed policy incentives and a relatively high fossil jet fuel price compared to other fossil fuels. RJF reduces aviation‐related combustion emission by 12–19 Mt/year CO₂‐eq by 2030, offsetting 53%–84% of projected emission growth of the sector in the EU relative to 2020. Increased RJF supply mainly affects nonfood biofuel use in road transport, which remained relatively constant during 2021–2030. The cost differential of RJF relative to fossil jet fuel declines from 40 €/GJ (1,740 €/t) in 2021 to 7–13 €/GJ (280–540 €/t) in 2030, because of the introduction of advanced biofuel technologies, technological learning, increased fossil jet fuel prices, and reduced feedstock costs. The cumulative additional costs of RJF equal €7.7–11 billion over 2021–2030 or €1.0–1.4 per departing passenger (intra‐EU) when allocated to the aviation sector. By 2030, 109–213 PJ/year (2.5–4.9 Mt/year) RJF is produced from lignocellulosic biomass using technologies which are currently not yet commercialized. Hence, (policy) mechanisms that expedite technology development are cardinal to the feasibility and affordability of increasing RJF production.     

Global biomass potentials under sustainability restrictions defined by the European Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC

The political will to reduce global GHG emissions has largely contributed to increased global biofuel production and trade. The expanding cultivation of energy crops may drive changes in the terrestrial ecosystems such as land cover and biodiversity loss. When biomass replaces fossil energy carriers, sustainability criteria are therefore crucial to avoid adverse impacts and ensure a net positive GHG balance. The European Union has set mandatory sustainability criteria for liquid biofuels in its Renewable Energy Directive (RED) 2009/28/EC to ensure net positive impacts of its biofuel policy. The adoption of sustainability criteria in other world regions and their extension to solid and gaseous biomass in the EU is ongoing. This paper examines the effect of the EU RED sustainability criteria on the availability of biomass resources at global and regional scale. It quantifies the relevance of sustainability criteria in biomass resource assessments taking into account the criteria's spatial distribution. This assessment does not include agricultural and forestry residues and aquatic biomass. Previously unknown interrelations between sustainability criteria are examined and described for ten world regions. The analysis concludes that roughly 10% (98.5 EJ) of the total theoretical potential of 977.2 EJ occurs in areas free of sustainability concerns.     

Supply of cellulosic biomass in Illinois and implications for the Conservation Reserve Program

We developed a mathematical programming model to estimate the supply of cellulosic biomass in Illinois at various biomass prices and examine the implications of biomass production for the maintenance costs of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). We find that Illinois has the potential to produce about 38.4–54.5 million dry metric tons (MT) of biomass in 2020 at a biomass price of $150/MT, depending on the production costs of cellulosic feedstocks, residue collection technology, and rates of yield increases of conventional crops. Corn stover will account for more than 65% of the total biomass production across biomass prices and the scenarios considered, while the roles of wheat straw and energy crops are quite limited. Given biomass prices of $50/MT‐$150/MT, many landowners would convert their expiring CRP lands to croplands. To maintain the size of the CRP during the 2007–2020 period at the 2007 levels in Illinois, total program maintenance costs would be $104.6–176.5 million at a biomass price of $50/MT, depending on biomass production conditions and crop yields on CRP lands. This would increase to $155.2–245.4 million at a biomass price of $150/MT.     

Sustainability guidelines and forest market response: an assessment of European Union pellet demand in the southeastern United States

Woody biomass from the southeast United States is expected to play an important role in meeting European Union renewable energy targets. In crafting policies to guide bioenergy development and in guiding investment decisions to meet established policy goals, a firm understanding of the interaction between policy targets and forest biomass markets is necessary, as is the effect that this interaction will have on environmental and economic objectives. This analysis increases our understanding of these interactions by modeling the response of southern US forest markets to new pellet demand in the presence of sustainability sourcing or harvest criteria. We first assess the influence of EU recommended sustainability guidelines on the forest inventory available to supply EU markets, and then model changes in forest composition and extent in response to expected increases in pellet demand. Next, we assess how sustainability guidelines can influence the evolution of forest markets in the region, paying particular attention to changes in land use and forest carbon. Regardless of whether sustainability guidelines are applied, we find increased removals, an increase in forest area, and little change in forest inventory. We also find annual gains in forest carbon in most years of the analysis. The incremental effect of sustainability guideline application on forest carbon and pellet greenhouse gas (GHG) balance is difficult to discern, but results suggest that guidelines could be steering production away from sensitive forest types inherently less responsive to changing market conditions. Pellet GHG balance shows significant annual change and is attributable to the complexity of the underlying forest landscape. The manner by which GHG balance is tracked is thus a critical policy decision, reinforcing the importance and relevance of current efforts to develop approaches to accurately account for the GHG implications of biomass use both in the United States and European Union.     

Biomass feedstock preprocessing and long‐distance transportation logistics

Biomass‐based biofuels have gained attention because they are renewable energy sources that could facilitate energy independence and improve rural economic development. As biomass supply and biofuel demand areas are generally not geographically contiguous, the design of an efficient and effective biomass supply chain from biomass provision to biofuel distribution is critical to facilitate large‐scale biofuel development. This study compared the costs of supplying biomass using three alternative biomass preprocessing and densification technologies (pelletizing, briquetting, and grinding) and two alternative transportation modes (trucking and rail) for the design of a four‐stage biomass–biofuel supply chain in which biomass produced in Illinois is used to meet biofuel demands in either California or Illinois. The BioScope optimization model was applied to evaluate a four‐stage biomass–biofuel supply chain that includes biomass supply, centralized storage and preprocessing (CSP), biorefinery, and ethanol distribution. We examined the cost of 15 scenarios that included a combination of three biomass preprocessing technologies and five supply chain configurations. The findings suggested that the transportation costs for biomass would generally follow the pattern of coal transportation. Converting biomass to ethanol locally and shipping ethanol over long distances is most economical, similar to the existing grain‐based biofuel system. For the Illinois–California supply chain, moving ethanol is Biomass‐based biofuels have gained attention because they are renewable energy sources that could facilitate energy independence and improve rural economic development. As biomass supply and biofuel demand areas are generally not geographically contiguous, the design of an efficient and effective biomass supply chain from biomass provision to biofuel distribution is critical to facilitate large‐scale biofuel development. This study compared the costs of supplying biomass using three alternative biomass preprocessing and densification technologies (pelletizing, briquetting, and grinding) and two alternative transportation modes (trucking and rail) for the design of a four‐stage biomass–biofuel supply chain in which biomass produced in Illinois is used to meet biofuel demands in either California or Illinois. The BioScope optimization model was applied to evaluate a four‐stage biomass–biofuel supply chain that includes biomass supply, centralized storage and preprocessing (CSP), biorefinery, and ethanol distribution. We examined the cost of 15 scenarios that included a combination of three biomass preprocessing technologies and five supply chain configurations. The findings suggested that the transportation costs for biomass would generally follow the pattern of coal transportation. Converting biomass to ethanol locally and shipping ethanol over long distances is most economical, similar to the existing grain‐based biofuel system. For the Illinois–California supply chain, moving ethanol is $0.24 gal^?1 less costly than moving biomass even in densified form over long distances. The use of biomass pellets leads to lower overall costs of biofuel production for long‐distance transportation but to higher costs if used for short‐distance movement due to its high capital and processing costs. Supported by the supply chain optimization modeling, the cellulosic‐ethanol production and distribution costs of using Illinois feedstock to meet California demand are $0.08 gal^?1 higher than that for meeting local Illinois demand.     

An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China

Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 2003–2007, is around 15 519 PJ in China, consisting of 10 818 PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701 PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12 693 PJ of the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347 PJ), east China (2862 PJ) and south‐west China (2229 PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380 PJ by 2050 and 4108 PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450 ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002 PJ (2050) and 11 524 PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450 ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11 150 PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in China's sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon‐constrained world.     

Biomass production in plantations: Land constraints increase dependency on irrigation water

Integrated assessment model scenarios project rising deployment of biomass‐using energy systems in climate change mitigation scenarios. But there is concern that bioenergy deployment will increase competition for land and water resources and obstruct objectives such as nature protection, the preservation of carbon‐rich ecosystems, and food security. To study the relative importance of water and land availability as biophysical constraints to bioenergy deployment at a global scale, we use a process‐detailed, spatially explicit biosphere model to simulate rain‐fed and irrigated biomass plantation supply along with the corresponding water consumption for different scenarios concerning availability of land and water resources. We find that global plantation supplies are mainly limited by land availability and only secondarily by freshwater availability. As a theoretical upper limit, if all suitable lands on Earth, besides land currently used in agriculture, were available for bioenergy plantations (“Food first” scenario), total plantation supply would be in the range 2,010–2,300 EJ/year depending on water availability and use. Excluding all currently protected areas reduces the supply by 60%. Excluding also areas where conversion to biomass plantations causes carbon emissions that might be considered unacceptably high will reduce the total plantation supply further. For example, excluding all areas where soil and vegetation carbon stocks exceed 150 tC/ha (“Carbon threshold savanna” scenario) reduces the supply to 170–290 EJ/year. With decreasing land availability, the amount of water available for irrigation becomes vitally important. In the least restrictive land availability scenario (“Food first”), up to 77% of global plantation biomass supply is obtained without additional irrigation. This share is reduced to 31% for the most restrictive “Carbon threshold savanna” scenario. The results highlight the critical—and geographically varying—importance of co‐managing land and water resources if substantial contributions of bioenergy are to be reached in mitigation portfolios.     

Net Zero Fort Carson: Integrating Energy,Water, and Waste Strategies to Lower the Environmental Impact of a Military Base

Military bases resemble small cities and face similar sustainability challenges. As pilot studies in the U.S. Army Net Zero program, 17 locations are moving to 100% renewable energy, zero depletion of water resources, and/or zero waste to landfill by 2020. Some bases target net zero in a single area, such as water, whereas two bases, including Fort Carson, Colorado, target net zero in all three areas. We investigated sustainability strategies that appear when multiple areas (energy, water, and waste) are integrated. A system dynamics model is used to simulate urban metabolism through Fort Carson's energy, water, and waste systems. Integrated scenarios reduce environmental impact up to 46% from the 2010 baseline, whereas single‐dimension scenarios (energy‐only, water‐only, and waste‐only) reduce impact, at most, 20%. Energy conserving technologies offer mutual gains, reducing annual energy use 18% and water use 15%. Renewable energy sources present trade‐offs: Concentrating solar power could supply 11% of energy demand, but increase water demand 2%. Waste to energy could supply 40% of energy demand and reduce waste to landfill >80%, but increase water demand between 1% and 22% depending on cooling system and waste tonnage. Outcomes depend on how the Fort Carson system is defined, because some components represent multiple net zero areas (food represents waste and energy), and some actions require embodied resources (energy generation potentially requires water and off‐base feedstock). We suggest that integrating multiple net zero goals can lead to lower environmental impact for military bases.     

The role of raw materials to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals: Tracing the risks and positive contributions of cobalt along the lithium-ion battery supply chain

Given the fast-growing demand for electric mobility, the European Union (EU) has invested in responsible sourcing of battery raw materials, but the sustainability of their value chains is not fully addressed. Life cycle sustainability assessment is a tool to identify social, economic, and environmental aspects of raw materials, but it is mostly used for negative impacts, whereas the supply and use of raw materials may also lead to benefits. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) can help to determine how raw materials boost or hinder the achievement of a sustainable society. In this study, the SDGs were used as a reference to assess contributions and risks of cobalt supply for electric mobility in the EU and whether this technology supports the achievement of the SDGs. The risks were determined using eight indicators focused on social risks, but environmental aspects like water quality and usage, and greenhouse gas emissions were also considered. The literature and databases were consulted to identify which SDGs receive contributions or burdens. Global and European cobalt supply scenarios were defined, considering the most representative countries. Results indicate that, although some SDGs receive positive contributions, like SDG 8 (Decent work and economic growth) and SDG 13 (Climate action), most of the identified correlations are negative, especially for SDG 3 (Good health and well-being) and SDG 16 (Peace, justice, and strong institutions). The European scenario has a low risk toward socio-environmental issues in 53% of the assessed aspects, whereas the global scenario presents a high risk in 47% of them.     

Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply,demand, and impacts

Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies involved). Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches may provide new, more comprehensive insights, especially into issues that involve multiple economic sectors, different temporal and spatial scales, or various impact categories. Model collaboration consists of aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios, model comparison and/or model linkage. Improved collaboration between existing modeling approaches can help assess (i) the causes of differences and similarities in model output, which is important for interpreting the results for policy‐making and (ii) the linkages, feedbacks, and trade‐offs between different systems and impacts (e.g., economic and natural), which is key to a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of biomass supply and demand. But, full consistency or integration in assumptions, structure, solution algorithms, dynamics and feedbacks can be difficult to achieve. And, if it is done, it frequently implies a trade‐off in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal, and structural) and/or computation. Three key research areas are selected to illustrate how model collaboration can provide additional ways for tackling some of the shortcomings and uncertainties in the assessment of biomass supply and demand and their impacts. These research areas are livestock production, agricultural residues, and greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change. Describing how model collaboration might look like in these examples, we show how improved model collaboration can strengthen our ability to project biomass supply, demand, and impacts. This in turn can aid in improving the information for policy‐makers and in taking better‐informed decisions.     

Application of a Life Cycle Model for European Union Policy‐Driven Waste Management Decision Making in Emerging Economies

Solid waste life cycle modeling has predominantly focused on developed countries, but there are significant opportunities to assist developing and transition economies to minimize the environmental impact of solid waste management (SWM). Serbia is representative of a transition country and most (92%) of its waste is landfilled. As a Candidate European Union (EU) country, Serbia is expected to implement SWM strategies that meet EU directives. The Solid Waste Life‐Cycle Optimization Framework (SWOLF) was used to evaluate scenarios that meet EU goals by 2030. Scenarios included combinations of landfills, anaerobic digestion, composting, material recovery facilities (MRFs), waste‐to‐energy (WTE) combustion, and the use of refuse‐derived fuel in cement kilns. Each scenario was evaluated with and without separate collection of recyclables. Modeled impacts included cost, climate change, cumulative fossil energy demand, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical oxidation, total eco‐toxicity, and total human toxicity. Trade‐offs among the scenarios were evaluated because no scenario performed best in every category. In general, SWM strategies that incorporated processes that recover energy and recyclable materials performed well across categories, whereas scenarios that did not include energy recovery performed poorly. Emissions offsets attributable to energy recovery and reduced energy requirements associated with remanufacturing of recovered recyclables had the strongest influence on the results. The scenarios rankings were robust under parametric sensitivity analysis, except when the marginal electricity fuel source changed from coal to natural gas. Model results showed that the use of existing infrastructure, energy recovery, and efficient recovery of recyclables from mixed waste can reduce environmental emissions at relatively low cost.     

Meeting Sustainability Requirements for SRC Bioenergy: Usefulness of Existing Tools,Responsibilities of Involved Stakeholders,and Recommendations for Further Developments

Short rotation coppice (SRC) is considered an important biomass supply option for meeting the European renewable energy targets. This paper presents an overview of existing and prospective sustainability requirements, Member State reporting obligations and parts of the methodology for calculating GHG emissions savings within the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED), and shows how these RED-associated sustainability criteria may affect different stakeholders along SRC bioenergy supply chains. Existing and prospective tools are assessed on their usefulness in ensuring that SRC bioenergy is produced with sufficient consideration given to the RED-associated criteria. A sustainability framework is outlined that aims at (1) facilitating the development of SRC production systems that are attractive from the perspectives of all stakeholders, and (2) ensuring that the SRC production is RED eligible. Producer manuals, EIAs, and voluntary certification schemes can all be useful for ensuring RED eligibility. However, they are currently not sufficiently comprehensive, neither individually nor combined, and suggestions for how they can be more complementary are given. Geographical information systems offer opportunities for administrative authorities to provide stakeholders with maps or databases over areas/fields suitable for RED-eligible SRC cultivation. However, proper consideration of all relevant aspects requires that all stakeholders in the SRC supply chain become engaged in the development of SRC production systems and that a landscape perspective is used.     

Projection of the future EU forest CO2 sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models

Forests of the European Union (EU) have been intensively managed for decades, and they have formed a significant sink for carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere over the past 50 years. The reasons for this behavior are multiple, among them are: forest aging, area expansion, increasing plant productivity due to environmental changes of many kinds, and, most importantly, the growth rates of European forest having been higher than harvest rates. EU countries have agreed to reduce total emissions of GHG by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, excluding the forest sink. A relevant question for climate policy is: how long will the current sink of EU forests be maintained in the near future? And could it be affected by other mitigation measures such as bioenergy? In this article we assess tradeoffs of bioenergy use and carbon sequestration at large scale and describe results of the comparison of two advanced forest management models that are used to project CO₂ emissions and removals from EU forests until 2030. EFISCEN, a detailed statistical matrix model and G4M, a geographically explicit economic forestry model, use scenarios of future harvest rates and forest growth information to estimate the future carbon balance of forest biomass. Two scenarios were assessed: the EU baseline scenario and the EU reference scenario (including additional bioenergy and climate policies). Our projections suggest a significant decline of the sink until 2030 in the baseline scenario of about 25–40% (or 65–125 Mt CO₂) compared to the models’ 2010 estimate. Including additional bioenergy targets of EU member states has an effect on the development of this sink, which is not accounted in the EU emission reduction target. A sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of future wood demand and proved the importance of this driver for the future sink development.     

Opportunities and challenges of sustainable agricultural development in China

This paper introduces the concepts and aims of sustainable agriculture in China. Sustainable agricultural development comprises sustainability of agricultural production, sustainability of the rural economy, ecological and environmental sustainability within agricultural systems and sustainability of rural society. China's prime aim is to ensure current and future food security. Based on projections of China's population, its economy, societal factors and agricultural resources and inputs between 2000 and 2050, total grain supply and demand has been predicted and the state of food security analysed. Total and per capita demand for grain will increase continuously. Total demand will reach 648 Mt in 2020 and 700 Mt in 2050, while total grain yield of cultivated land will reach 470 Mt in 2010, 585 Mt in 2030 and 656 Mt in 2050. The per capita grain production will be around 360kg in the period 2000-2030 and reach 470kg in 2050. When productivities of cultivated land and other agricultural resources are all taken into consideration, China's food self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 94.4% in 2000 to 101.3% in 2030, suggesting that China will meet its future demand for food and need for food security. Despite this positive assessment, the country's sustainable agricultural development has encountered many obstacles. These include: agricultural water-use shortage; cultivated land loss; inappropriate usage of fertilizers and pesticides, and environmental degradation.     

Wood pellets,what else? Greenhouse gas parity times of European electricity from wood pellets produced in the south‐eastern United States using different softwood feedstocks

Several EU countries import wood pellets from the south‐eastern United States. The imported wood pellets are (co‐)fired in power plants with the aim of reducing overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity and meeting EU renewable energy targets. To assess whether GHG emissions are reduced and on what timescale, we construct the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity. This GHG balance consists of supply chain and combustion GHG emissions, carbon sequestration during biomass growth and avoided GHG emissions through replacing fossil electricity. We investigate wood pellets from four softwood feedstock types: small roundwood, commercial thinnings, harvest residues and mill residues. Per feedstock, the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity is compared against those of alternative scenarios. Alternative scenarios are combinations of alternative fates of the feedstock materials, such as in‐forest decomposition, or the production of paper or wood panels like oriented strand board (OSB). Alternative scenario composition depends on feedstock type and local demand for this feedstock. Results indicate that the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity equals that of alternative scenarios within 0–21 years (the GHG parity time), after which wood‐pellet electricity has sustained climate benefits. Parity times increase by a maximum of 12 years when varying key variables (emissions associated with paper and panels, soil carbon increase via feedstock decomposition, wood‐pellet electricity supply chain emissions) within maximum plausible ranges. Using commercial thinnings, harvest residues or mill residues as feedstock leads to the shortest GHG parity times (0–6 years) and fastest GHG benefits from wood‐pellet electricity. We find shorter GHG parity times than previous studies, for we use a novel approach that differentiates feedstocks and considers alternative scenarios based on (combinations of) alternative feedstock fates, rather than on alternative land uses. This novel approach is relevant for bioenergy derived from low‐value feedstocks.     

The role of bioenergy and biochemicals in CO2 mitigation through the energy system – a scenario analysis for the Netherlands

Bioenergy as well as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage are key options to embark on cost‐efficient trajectories that realize climate targets. Most studies have not yet assessed the influence on these trajectories of emerging bioeconomy sectors such as biochemicals and renewable jet fuels (RJFs). To support a systems transition, there is also need to demonstrate the impact on the energy system of technology development, biomass and fossil fuel prices. We aim to close this gap by assessing least‐cost pathways to 2030 for a number of scenarios applied to the energy system of the Netherlands, using a cost‐minimization model. The type and magnitude of biomass deployment are highly influenced by technology development, fossil fuel prices and ambitions to mitigate climate change. Across all scenarios, biomass consumption ranges between 180 and 760 PJ and national emissions between 82 and 178 Mt CO₂. High technology development leads to additional 100–270 PJ of biomass consumption and 8–20 Mt CO₂ emission reduction compared to low technology development counterparts. In high technology development scenarios, additional emission reduction is primarily achieved by bioenergy and carbon capture and storage. Traditional sectors, namely industrial biomass heat and biofuels, supply 61–87% of bioenergy, while wind turbines are the main supplier of renewable electricity. Low technology pathways show lower biochemical output by 50–75%, do not supply RJFs and do not utilize additional biomass compared to high technology development. In most scenarios the emission reduction targets for the Netherlands are not met, as additional reduction of 10–45 Mt CO₂ is needed. Stronger climate policy is required, especially in view of fluctuating fossil fuel prices, which are shown to be a key determinant of bioeconomy development. Nonetheless, high technology development is a no‐regrets option to realize deep emission reduction as it also ensures stable growth for the bioeconomy even under unfavourable conditions.     

Trade‐offs for food production,nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential

Large‐scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass‐derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ? but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR.     

How effective are the sustainability criteria accompanying the European Union 2020 biofuel targets?

The expansion of biofuel production can lead to an array of negative environmental impacts. Therefore, the European Union (EU) has recently imposed sustainability criteria on biofuel production in the Renewable Energy Directive (RED). In this article, we analyse the effectiveness of the sustainability criteria for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. We first use a global agriculture and forestry model to investigate environmental effects of the EU member states National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) without sustainability criteria. We conclude that these targets would drive losses of 2.2 Mha of highly biodiverse areas and generate 95 Mt CO ₂ eq of additional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, in a second step, we demonstrate that the EU biofuel demand could be satisfied ‘sustainably’ according to RED despite its negative environmental effects. This is because the majority of global crop production is produced ‘sustainably’ in the sense of RED and can provide more than 10 times the total European biofuel demand in 2020 if reallocated from sectors without sustainability criteria. This finding points to a potential policy failure of applying sustainability regulation to a single sector in a single region. To be effective this policy needs to be more complete in targeting a wider scope of agricultural commodities and more comprehensive in its membership of countries.     

Accelerating adoption of genetically modified crops in Africa through a trade liability regime

Given the apparently unbridgeable divide that has developed between the 25 odd countries that grow and trade GM crops and the evolving EU regulatory hurdles, it may be time to consider alternative strategies for realizing a global market for agricultural products. Africa is one area of the world where the battle over GM agriculture is being played out, yet it is the continent where GM could have the greatest positive impact. Numerous African nations, given their long‐standing trade connections to European nations, fear that allowing the commercialization of GM crops could lead to comingling of GM and conventional products and, hence, the loss of export opportunities to the EU. These are legitimate concerns. One potential solution that warrants serious consideration would be to establish a pool of funds that could be accessed by African agricultural commodity exporters in instances where exports to Europe are rejected. A production levy could be imposed in leading industrial adopting nations (i.e., Australia, Canada and the United States). The revenue raised would provide an endowment fund that could be used to offset the costs arising from import refusals. African‐sourced shipments rejected by the EU will most certainly have alternate markets, but could receive a reduced price or incur higher costs associated with serving alternate markets. The intent of the fund would be to compensate for the real difference between the net returns contracted with European importers and the final market price received. This article examines the feasibility of establishing such a fund and discusses the funding options.     

The Economics of Biomass Collection and Transportation and Its Supply to Indiana Cellulosic and Electric Utility Facilities

With cellulosic energy production from biomass becoming popular in renewable energy research, agricultural producers may be called upon to plant and collect corn stover or harvest switchgrass to supply feedstocks to nearby facilities. Determining the production and transportation cost to the producer of corn stover or switchgrass and the amount available within a given distance from the plant will result in a per metric ton cost the plant will need to pay producers in order to receive sufficient quantities of biomass. This research computes up-to-date biomass production costs using recent prices for all important cost components including seed, fertilizer, herbicide, mowing/shredding, raking, baling, storage, handling, and transportation. The cost estimates also include nutrient replacement for corn stover. The total per metric ton cost is a combination of these cost components depending on whether equipment is owned or custom hired, what baling options are used, the size of the farm, and the transport distance. Total costs per dry metric ton for biomass with a transportation distance of 60 km ranges between $63 and $75 for corn stover and $80 and $96 for switchgrass. Using the county quantity data and this cost information, we then estimate biomass supply curves for three Indiana coal-fired electric utilities. This supply framework can be applied to plants of any size, location, and type, such as future cellulosic ethanol plants. Finally, greenhouse gas emissions reductions are estimated from using biomass instead of coal for part of the utility energy and also the carbon tax required to make the biomass and coal costs equivalent. Depending on the assumed CO₂ price, the use of biomass instead of coal is found to decrease overall costs in most cases.