Commercializing genetically modified crops under EU regulations: objectives and barriers

Agriculture faces serious problems in feeding 9 billion people by 2050: production must be increased and ecosystem services maintained under conditions for growing crops that are predicted to worsen in many parts of the world. A proposed solution is sustainable intensification of agriculture, whereby yields are increased on land that is currently cultivated, so sparing land to deliver other ecosystem services. Genetically modified (GM) crops are already contributing to sustainable intensification through higher yields and lower environmental impacts, and have potential to deliver further significant improvements. Despite their widespread successful use elsewhere, the European Union (EU) has been slow to introduce GM crops: decisions on applications to import GM commodities are lengthy, and decision-making on applications to cultivate GM crops has virtually ceased. Delayed import approvals result in economic losses, particularly in the EU itself as a result of higher commodity prices. Failure to grant cultivation approvals costs EU farmers opportunities to reduce inputs, and results in loss of agricultural research and development from the EU to countries such as the United States and China. Delayed decision-making in the EU ostensibly results from scientific uncertainty about the effects of using GM crops; however, scientific uncertainty may be a means to justify a political decision to restrict cultivation of GM crops in the EU. The problems associated with delayed decision-making will not improve until there is clarity about the EU's agricultural policy objectives, and whether the use of GM crops will be permitted to contribute to achieving those objectives.     

The policy chicken and the science egg. Has applied ecology failed the transgenic crops debate?

Ecology has a long history of research relevant to and impacting on real-world issues. Nonetheless problems of communication remain between policy-makers and scientists because they tend to work at different levels of generality (policy deals with broad issues, science prefers specific questions), and complexity (policy-makers want simple answers, ecologists tend to offer multi-factorial solutions) and to different timescales (policy-makers want answers tomorrow, ecologists always seem to want more time). These differences are not unique to the debate about the cultivation of transgenic crops. Research on gene flow is used to illustrate how science and policy are intimately bound together in a value-laden, iterative and messy process unlike that characterised by the ‘encounter problem—do science—make policy’ model. It also demonstrates how the gap between science and policy is often characterised by value-laden language. Scientists involved in ERA for transgenic crops may find their engagement with policy- and decision-makers clouded by misunderstanding about what one should expect from the other. Not the least of these, that science can define harm, is explored in a discussion of the UK Farm Scale Evaluations of herbicide-tolerant GM crops. The varied responses to these extensive trials highlight the problems of linking specific scientific experiments with broad policy objectives. The problems of applied ecology in the transgenic crops debate are not unique but may differ from other areas of environmental policy in the intense politicisation of the debate, the emphasis on assessment of risk and the particularly broad policy objectives.     

Environmental risk assessments for transgenic crops producing output trait enzymes

The environmental risks from cultivating crops producing output trait enzymes can be rigorously assessed by testing conservative risk hypotheses of no harm to endpoints such as the abundance of wildlife, crop yield and the rate of degradation of crop residues in soil. These hypotheses can be tested with data from many sources, including evaluations of the agronomic performance and nutritional quality of the crop made during product development, and information from the scientific literature on the mode-of-action, taxonomic distribution and environmental fate of the enzyme. Few, if any, specific ecotoxicology or environmental fate studies are needed. The effective use of existing data means that regulatory decision-making, to which an environmental risk assessment provides essential information, is not unnecessarily complicated by evaluation of large amounts of new data that provide negligible improvement in the characterization of risk, and that may delay environmental benefits offered by transgenic crops containing output trait enzymes.     

Biotechnology, environmental forcing, and unintended trophic cascades

A long ongoing discussion between scientists and policy decision-makers seems to have entered recently into a new phase. The consequences of release of transgenic crops into the environment are being discussed not only by scientists but also by farmers, environmental groups and politicians, while an increasing amount of data is becoming available at all biological scales, including the field level. However, data still rely on experiments designed to capture direct consumer–resource interactions. Here we argue that we should attempt to concentrate on the ecosystem functioning of soil biota under genetically-modified (GM) plants, because functional and mechanistic analysis of the multitrophic effects of GM plants on soil biota is still lacking. It is our opinion that we should avoid addressing taxa and soil communities separately, but link them at their functional level. We shall explain why, using examples from ecosystem services, allometric scaling, and soil food webs. The energy flow of any food web under stress incorporates several factors and pooled information on ecosystem services and on the different responses of soil invertebrates to induced perturbations in other trophic levels. Therefore, we will systematically focus on the complementarities of these approaches. Handling editor: Sam Cook     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling for Public Health Decision-Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation

Public health responses to HIV epidemics have long relied on epidemiological modelling analyses to help prospectively project and retrospectively estimate the impact, cost-effectiveness, affordability, and investment returns of interventions, and to help plan the design of evaluations. But translating model output into policy decisions and implementation on the ground is challenged by the differences in background and expectations of modellers and decision-makers. As part of the PLoS Medicine Collection “Investigating the Impact of Treatment on New HIV Infections”—which focuses on the contribution of modelling to current issues in HIV prevention—we present here principles of “best practice” for the construction, reporting, and interpretation of HIV epidemiological models for public health decision-making on all aspects of HIV. Aimed at both those who conduct modelling research and those who use modelling results, we hope that the principles described here will become a shared resource that facilitates constructive discussions about the policy implications that emerge from HIV epidemiology modelling results, and that promotes joint understanding between modellers and decision-makers about when modelling is useful as a tool in quantifying HIV epidemiological outcomes and improving prevention programming.     

The method of response functions in ecology

This article describes the further development and new applications of the already well-known method of response functions. This method is used to present the quantitative evaluation of the reactions of various ecological and biological systems to environmental impacts. Two ecological problems were chosen as examples: the model of growth and development of cereal crops and the model of pollutant dynamics in the elementary ecosystem. In each case the results are given of the evaluation of parameters and the testing of models. It is shown that the method of response functions allows resolution of the wide range of ecological problems with sufficient accuracy, and some new theoretical results are presented. For example, based on the existing hypotheses of higher plant development, a biological time scale has been worked out. The method was elaborated to determine the minimum time of development, which is a genetically stipulated characteristic of a species and is realized when all environmental factors are optimal.     

转基因植物对农业生物多样性的影响

论述了近年来转基因植物对农业生态系统生物多样性影响的研究进展．主要在遗传多样性、物种多样性和生态系统多样性3个层次上予以评述．包括转基因植物对作物遗传多样性的影响;转基因植物的外源基因向杂草和近缘野生种转移;转基因抗虫植物对目标害虫的影响。抗除草剂转基因植物对作物和杂草的影响,抗病毒转基因植物对病毒的影响;转基因植物对非目标生物的影响,对土壤生态系统的影响等．     

Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach

Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.     

Drought tolerance through biotechnology: improving translation from the laboratory to farmers' fields

Water availability is a significant constraint to crop production, and increasing drought tolerance of crops is one step to gaining greater yield stability. Excellent progress has been made using models to identify pathways and genes that can be manipulated through biotechnology to improve drought tolerance. A current focus is on translation of results from models in controlled environments to crops in the field. Field testing to demonstrate improved yields under water-limiting conditions is challenging and expensive. More extensive phenotyping of transgenic lines in the greenhouse may contribute to improved predictions about field performance. It is possible that multiple mechanisms of drought tolerance may be needed to provide benefit across the diversity of water stress environments relevant to economic yield.     

Quantifying and Exploring Strategic Regional Priorities for Managing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services Given Multiple Stakeholder Perspectives

A ubiquitous problem for community-based regional environmental agencies is to set strategic management priorities among a myriad of issues and multiple stakeholder perspectives. Here, we quantify the strategic management priorities for natural capital and ecosystem services using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a case study of the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin Natural Resources Management Board (the Board) region. A natural capital and ecosystem services framework was tailored to present decision-makers with a range of potential issues for strategic consideration as goal hierarchies in MCDA. Priorities were elicited from the Board and its four regionally based consultative groups using the Analytical Hierarchy Process and swing weights. Centered log ratio transformed weights were analyzed using multiple pairwise ANOVA comparisons (Dunnett’s T3) and hierarchical cluster analysis. Substantial variation in priorities occurred between decision-makers. Nonetheless, analysis of priorities for assets and services robustly demonstrated that water was the highest priority, followed by land, then biota, with atmosphere the lowest priority. Decision-makers also considered that environmental management should not impact negatively on built or social capital. Few significant differences in priorities were found between decision-maker groups. However, clusters of manager types were found which represent distinct alternative management strategies, notably the prioritization of either intermediate or final ecosystem services. The results have implications for regional environmental decision-making and suggest that embracing variation in perspectives may be a better way forward for multistakeholder MCDA. The study operationalizes natural capital and ecosystem services by providing strategic priorities for targeting management and policy within the context of community-based, regional environmental management.     

我国废弃矿山生态修复研究

实施废弃矿山生态修复工程,是适应社会主义生态文明建设的必然要求,是遵循自然规律,破解矿区生态环境保护修复难题的重要举措。矿产资源开发后遗留下来的废弃矿山不可避免地影响和破坏区域生态环境和生态系统,基于我国废弃矿山分布及其主要环境问题现状,结合我国区域生态特征,提出了我国废弃矿山生态修复策略。参考我国生态综合区划,同时结合地形地貌、区域生态系统结构与功能等因素,划定我国废弃矿山生态修复区,明确我国废弃矿山生态修复总体思路与基本原则,提出废弃矿山生态修复的主要模式;在综合分析区域生态系统稳定性、自然地理、气候条件以及废弃矿山特征的基础上,识别各区域内存在的主要环境和生态问题,有针对性地提出控制生态系统退化、修复受损生态功能的主要措施,为我国废弃矿山的生态修复工作提供技术支撑和决策依据。     

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy‐makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS‐II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short‐term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon–juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought‐induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles.     

THE ORIGIN OF THE SPINNING APPARATUS IN SPIDERS

• 1 Previous attempts to explain the evolution of spider silk have relied heavily on conjecture. The formulation of testable historical hypotheses to replace such speculation is discussed.
• 2 The importance of phylogenetic reconstructions and other historical hypotheses for use in generating and testing hypotheses concerning the evolution of specific adaptations is examined. Recent ideas on arachnid phylogeny are reviewed and their relevance to the problem of silk evolution in spiders is explored.
• 3 Evidence from the analysis of three historical problems (origin of spinnerets, origin of silk glands, original selective pressure favouring evolution of silk) is reviewed from three different frames of reference (in-group analysis, out-group analysis, convergence analysis). Several lines of evidence are found which suggest that silk use originated in spiders due to selective pressures associated with reproduction (specifically, the transfer of sperm or the protection of eggs).
• 4 The prevalence of segmental appendages retained for use in manipulating genital products in both arachnids and non-arachnid arthropods and the probable placement of spinnerets near the genital opening in ancestral spiders suggest that spinnerets represent modified gonopods.
• 5 The most primitive types of silk glands are retained in virtually all spiders, in part, for use in the construction of sperm webs and egg sacs. Similar silk glands are found near the genital opening in many male spiders and used in building a portion of the sperm web.
• 6 The silk of adult arthropods other than spiders is used largely in manipulating or protecting sex cells. If there are multiple functions, use in reproduction is typically one of them. Thus, there is evidence for strong selective pressure favouring the evolution of silk for use in reproduction.
• 7 Two hypotheses are proposed which are consistent with the conclusion that silk in spiders evolved for reproductive needs (the spermatophore-sperm web and egg sac hypotheses). Testable predictions of each hypothesis are proposed.

     

Economics of invasive species policy and management

This article examines the use of economic analysis to inform bioinvasion management, with particular focus on forest resources. Economics is key for understanding invasion processes, impacts, and decision-making. Biological invasions are driven by and affect economic activities at multiple scales and stages of an invasion. Bioeconomic modeling seeks to inform how resources can be optimally allocated across invasion management activities—including prevention, surveillance programs for early detection and management, and controlling invasion populations and spread—to minimize the long-term costs and damages. Economic analysis facilitates understanding of decisions by public and private decision-makers, gaps between these, and the design of policies to achieve socially desirable outcomes. Private decision-makers may undercontrol invasions relative to socially optimal levels, because they generally account for their own costs and benefits of control but less often for broader ecosystem impacts or future spread across the landscape. Economic analysis considers approaches for increasing private invasion management and evaluates feedbacks between ecological and economic systems that can affect policy outcomes. Future research should continue evaluation and design of control strategies across the biosecurity continuum and across species to enhance cost-effectiveness, better incorporate uncertainty into policy design, increase focus on incentives and behavioral tools to influence private behaviors that affect invasion spread, and incorporate invasive species consideration within broader systems-focused science. In addition, challenges in valuing biodiversity and ecosystem service impacts and the costs and effectiveness of control measures are key data gaps. Greater collaboration between decision-makers and researchers will facilitate development and communication of usable economic research.     

生态系统服务级联效应研究进展

生态系统服务级联效应(ESC)将生态系统服务各组成部分与社会价值联系起来,构建了自然科学到社会科学跨学科研究的桥梁,可以帮助决策者更好地将生态系统服务概念融入到决策制定中。本文梳理了生态系统服务级联效应的概念,回顾了级联效应的研究进展。从理论角度看,ESC的理论研究主要集中在如何准确定义各成分及各成分间的因果关系,提高ESC模型的实用性与适用性,以及如何有效连接利益相关者与生态系统服务结构。从应用角度看,ESC在生态系统服务制图、生态系统服务评估及政策制定发挥了巨大作用。当前研究在指标筛选和互馈机制上仍存在较大不确定性。建议未来应从以下几个方面加强研究:更加关注生态系统服务结构过程及分类标准,通过多模型融合和区域调查来弥补ESC对反馈机制描述的不足,结合区域特征为人地耦合和可持续发展提供科学指导。     

What drives invasibility? A multi‐model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal

Understanding and predicting biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi‐model information‐theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics, and by testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C‐S‐R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility, and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions, and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub‐sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land‐use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub‐sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.     

Uncertainty in Impact and Externality Assessments - Implications for Decision-Making (13 pp)

Goal, Scope and Background Many disciplines, amongst them LCIA, environmental impact and external cost assessments, are often faced with evaluating trade-offs between two or more alternative options in terms of a range of incommensurable indicators. Using process modeling and valuation, these indicators are quantified at mid- or endpoint levels. Recent discussion amongst LCA experts showed that because of the mutually exclusive aspects of uncertainty and relevance, the midpoint/endpoint debate is controversial and difficult to reconcile. This article is aimed at a more quantitative analysis of mid- and endpoint impacts, and the implications of uncertainty for decision-making. Methods The consequences for decision-making of uncertainties of endpoints are analysed quantitatively for the example of ExternE results, by employing statistical hypothesis testing. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to demonstrate the use of multi-criteria techniques at midpoint levels. Results and Discussion Statistical hypothesis testing at the endpoint level shows that for the ExternE example, probabilities of mistakenly favouring one alternative over another when they are in reality indistinguishable can be as high as 80%. Therefore, the best estimate of external cost is inadequate for most policy making purposes. Indicators at midpoint levels are more certain, but since they are only \proxy attributes\, they carry a hidden uncertainty in their relevance. Conclusion If endpoint information is too uncertain to allow a decision to be made with reasonable confidence, then the assessment can be carried out in midpoint terms. However, midpoint indicators are generally further removed from people's experience, and less relevant to the question that people actually want to solve. Nevertheless, if this ultimate question is unanswerable (within the certainty required by the decision-maker), a decision can be made on the basis of stakeholders' subjective judgments about the more certain midpoint levels. The crucial point is that these judgments are able to intuitively incorporate many aspects that impact modeling and valuation has trouble quantifying, such as perceived risk, distribution of burdens and benefits, equity, ethical, moral, religious and political beliefs and principles, immediacy and reversibility of potential impacts, voluntariness, controllability and familiarity of exposure, or perceived incompleteness of human knowledge.     

转基因作物对土壤微生物的影响

全球范围内转基因农作物的大量种植不仅带来巨大的经济利益,同时也引发了人们关于转基因作物对包含土壤微生物在内的土壤生态系统的潜在风险的忧虑.转基因作物对土壤微生物的影响包括外源基因表达蛋白对非靶标土壤微生物的直接影响,也包括因外源基因导入而植物根系分泌物组分变化引起的间接影响.目前,对转基因作物的大多数研究表明,转基因作物能引起土壤微生物种群数量和结构的变化.但是,转基因作物对土壤微生物的影响力度有大有小,持续时间有长有短,评价不一.本文综述了不同种类转基因作物对土壤微生物的影响,对转基因作物种类、试验技术和原则等影响评价结果准确性的因素进行了讨论,提出了进一步研究需要注意的问题.     

湖泊湿地生态系统服务研究进展

湖泊湿地生态系统服务可持续供给对维持区域、国家乃至全球生态安全格局具有重要意义。近20年,国内外学者在生态系统服务内涵、评估模型、影响机制、权衡与优化等领域的研究不断深入,但与管理决策和政策设计的结合仍面临多方面严峻挑战。系统分析湖泊湿地生态系统服务研究进展与存在的不足,对于今后一段时间内湖泊湿地生态系统服务研究的全方位拓展具有重要指导意义。以湖泊湿地生态系统服务概念与内涵为切入点,对湖泊湿地生态系统服务评估内容与方法、影响机理、生态系统服务权衡与优化等几个重要方面的研究进展进行了梳理,并结合管理决策和政策设计的需求,评述其研究中存在的不足。本研究以生态系统服务监测、模型不确定性、风险评估、优化与调控等四个重点研究方向为切入点,对湖泊湿地生态系统服务的研究方向进行了展望,以期深化湖泊湿地生态系统服务研究的理论与方法,并实现其与管理决策和政策设计的高度结合。