Apparent Incidence of Helicobacter pylori in Adulthood: To What Extent Do New Infections Reflect Misclassification?

Background: Helicobacter pylori infection is a key risk factor for a variety of gastrointestinal diseases. About half of the world population is infected. Most infections are acquired early in childhood, but the occurrence of new infections among adults has also been suggested. Methods: We review epidemiological studies providing estimates of incidence of H. pylori infection among adults and evaluate to what extent incidence estimates might have been affected by measurement error of infection status. Results: Thirty‐two studies could be included in the review. Annual incidence was lower than 1.0 % in 17 studies; no correlation between length of follow‐up and cumulative incidence was observed. Apparent cumulative incidences of the magnitudes observed in most studies would be expected, because of less than perfect sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic tests, even in the absence of any true new infections. Conclusion/Impact: Apparent incidence rates of H. pylori infection among adults in Western populations should be interpreted with utmost caution.     

人类遗传流行病学的研究设计:海外朝鲜民族研究方案（英文）

传统的遗传流行病学和基因定位的研究设计往往局限于单一的（通常是简单的）数据结构和过分简化的流行病学模型。然而,当实际情况稍微复杂一些的时候,这些简单的方法几乎注定要失败,因此,我们应该重新建构思维方式,应考虑何种的病因学模型会与我们所知道的进化,表现型的表达以及基因型-表现型的相互关系相符,当基因定位的策略充分利用选择偏倚来使P（基因型Ⅰ表现型的;选择偏倚）的预测值达到最大,用分离分析试图对外显率函数或P（表现型Ⅰ基因型）作无偏估计,因而一般而言,没有一个值可以完全充分地被另一个值所推估,一个常见的,关于基因组计划得以“改变世界”的误解甚至使得严谨的科学家们都忽略了以下的科学事实;他们努力地为基因定位策略上的巨额支出辩护,却忽略了基因定位策略的本身就是极度取决于一些难以验证的前题假设,将不同实验设计方案的数据合并起来定会使估计参数和检验假设的自由度增加,虽然仍然需要大样本数的资料库,但采取以上策略可提供更多的信息以检测出真实情况,以往传统的研究方法只针对病因变异量的某一特定方面;双生子法侧重于研究在一个家庭内分享共同的环境因素之下遗传因素的作用;寄养子研究侧重于在控制遗传因素之下,不同家庭环境间的变异性;移民流行病学分析侧重于在控制遗传因素之下,不同文化环境间的变异性;而家系分析则侧重于检测较大的亲缘族系中的复杂遗传性相关,不同的研究着重不同成份的变异量,很显然,一个综合性的研究将可对特微病因学提供更多关于自然,养育因素以及它们之间交互作用的信息,同样地,这些信息可用来辅助基因定位和基因型-表现型相关性的研究,我们目前正以外朝鲜族家庭为对象进行此类研究,这些外朝鲜族家庭包括位于哈萨克斯坦,韩国,中国（延边0的朝鲜族家庭以及寄养于美国及欧洲的朝鲜人,我们亦希望能取得这些寄养人位于韩国的血亲的资料。     

Imprecise exposure assessment and the sample size requirements of case-control studies of residential magnetic field exposure and cancer in adults

A computer program simulating case-control studies is described. It is used to estimate the minimum sample size required and to assess how this is affected by imprecise exposure assessment. In particular, the consequences of neglecting measurements of nonresidential exposure in case-control studies of residentially exposed adults are investigated. According to this model, while the consequent loss of power is not as large as was predicted by algebraic methods, it would be unwise to neglect it when planning a study. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Coevolutionary genetics of plants and pathogens

Summary The genetic polymorphism maintained by host-pathogen coevolution is analysed in a multilocus model. The model assumes gene-for-gene interactions of the type commonly observed between host plants and their fungal pathogens. Unstable (epidemic) systems maintain more resistance genes, fewer virulence genes, and less overall genetic diversity than stable (endemic) diseases. The stability of the system depends primarily on demographic parameters, such as the pathogen's intrinsic rate of increase, rather than genetic parameters, such as the costs of resistance and virulence. At equilibrium the model predicts that the number of resistance alleles in each host plant follows a binomial distribution that depends on the cost to the pathogen for carrying virulence alleles. Similarly, the number of virulence alleles in each pathogen spore follows a binomial distribution that depends on one minus the cost to the host for carrying resistance alleles. Data from wild populations match the predicted binomial distributions.     

Combining mathematics and empirical data to predict emergence of RNA viruses that differ in reservoir use

RNA viruses may be particularly capable of contributing to the increasing biomedical problem of infectious disease emergence. Empirical studies and epidemiological models are informative for the understanding of evolutionary processes that promote pathogen emergence, but rarely are these approaches combined in the same study. Here, we used an epidemiology model containing observations of pathogen productivity in reservoirs, as a means to predict which pathogens should be most prone to emerge in a primary host such as humans. We employed as a model system a collection of vesicular stomatitis virus populations that had previously diverged in host-use strategy: specialists, directly selected generalists and indirectly selected (fortuitous) generalists. Using data from experiments where these viral strategists were challenged to grow on unencountered novel hosts in vitro, logistic growth models determined that the directly selected generalist viruses tended to grow best on model reservoirs. Furthermore, when we used the growth data to estimate average reproductive rate across secondary reservoirs, we showed that the combined approach could be used to estimate relative success of the differing virus strategists when encountering a primary host. Our study suggests that synergistic approaches combining epidemiological modelling with empirical data from experimental evolution may be useful for developing efforts to predict which types of pathogens pose the greatest probability of emerging in the future.