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Hii YL  Rocklöv J  Ng N 《PloS one》2011,6(2):e16796

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks leading to clinical and fatal complications have increased since late 1990s; especially in the Asia Pacific Region. Outbreaks of HFMD peaks in the warmer season of the year, but the underlying factors for this annual pattern and the reasons to the recent upsurge trend have not yet been established. This study analyzed the effect of short-term changes in weather on the incidence of HFMD in Singapore.

Methods

The relative risks between weekly HFMD cases and temperature and rainfall were estimated for the period 2001–2008 using time series Poisson regression models allowing for over-dispersion. Smoothing was used to allow non-linear relationship between weather and weekly HFMD cases, and to adjust for seasonality and long-term time trend. Additionally, autocorrelation was controlled and weather was allowed to have a lagged effect on HFMD incidence up to 2 weeks.

Results

Weekly temperature and rainfall showed statistically significant association with HFMD incidence at time lag of 1–2 weeks. Every 1°C increases in maximum temperature above 32°C elevated the risk of HFMD incidence by 36% (95% CI = 1.341–1.389). Simultaneously, one mm increase of weekly cumulative rainfall below 75 mm increased the risk of HFMD by 0.3% (CI = 1.002–1.003). While above 75 mm the effect was opposite and each mm increases of rainfall decreased the incidence by 0.5% (CI = 0.995–0.996). We also found that a difference between minimum and maximum temperature greater than 7°C elevated the risk of HFMD by 41% (CI = 1.388–1.439).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest a strong association between HFMD and weather. However, the exact reason for the association is yet to be studied. Information on maximum temperature above 32°C and moderate rainfall precede HFMD incidence could help to control and curb the up-surging trend of HFMD.  相似文献   

3.

Objective

The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002–2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders.

Methods

Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002–2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003–2005; 2006; and 2007–2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters.

Results

JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years.

Conclusion

JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.  相似文献   

4.

Background

Human Enterovirus 71 and Coxsackie A16 have caused many outbreaks in the last decade in mainland China, resulting in thousands of fatal cases. Seroepidemiology which provides important information to document population immunity is rare in China.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cross sectional study of Enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie A16 (CA16) seroprevalence was carried out in Guangdong, China, pre- and post- the 2010 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemic period. The levels of EV71 and CA16 specific antibodies were evaluated by a microneutralization test and the geometric mean titer (GMT) was calculated and compared. Our results indicated frequent infection by EV71 and CA16 in Guangdong before the 2010 epidemic. Only EV71 neutralizing antibody but not CA16 seroprevalence was significantly increased after the 2010 HFMD epidemic. Children less than 3 years old especially those aged 2 years showed the lowest positive rates for EV71 and CA16 NA before epidemic and the most significantly increased EV71 seroprevalence after epidemic. CA16 GMT values declined after the 2010 epidemic.

Conclusions

These results indicate EV71 was the major pathogen of HFMD in Guangdong during the 2010 epidemic. The infection occurs largely in children less than 3 years, who should have first priority to receive an EV71 vaccine.  相似文献   

5.

Objectives

In epidemiological research, major studies have focused on theoretical models; however, few methods of visual analysis have been used to display the patterns of disease distribution.

Design

For this study, a method combining the space-time cube (STC) with space-time scan statistics (STSS) was used to analyze the pattern of incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province from May 2008 to March 2009. In this research, STC was used to display the spatiotemporal pattern of incidence of HFMD, and STSS were used to detect the local aggregations of the disease.

Setting

The hand-foot-mouth disease data were obtained from Guangdong Province from May 2008 to March 2009, with a total of 68,130 cases.

Results

The STC analysis revealed a differential pattern of HFMD incidence among different months and cities and also showed that the population density and average precipitation are correlated with the incidence of HFMD. The STSS analysis revealed that the most likely aggregation includes the Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan populations, which are the most developed regions in Guangdong Province.

Conclusion

Both STC and STSS are efficient tools for the exploratory data analysis of disease transmission. STC clearly displays the spatiotemporal patterns of disease. Using the maximum likelihood ratio, the STSS model precisely locates the most likely aggregation.  相似文献   

6.

Background

Reduction of measles incidence and mortality has been encouraging in China. However, it remains an important public health concern among infants. This study aimed to examine the space–time distribution pattern of infant measles occurrence for the period of 1999–2008 in Shandong, China.

Methods and Findings

Measles cases among infants aged younger than 1 year were obtained from the national infectious diseases reporting information system. A spatiotemporal analysis using population attributable risk percent (PAR%) was used to distinguish between multiple geographic clusters of potential interest. The analysis detected 29 statistically significant space–time clusters with the most likely cluster in Zaozhuang City from 2006 to 2008. Of the 28 secondary clusters, 22 were found in 2008. The map of PAR%, relative risk (RR) and space–time cluster analysis indicated that the clusters were generally unchanged, and were found south-west and north-west of Shandong. The Lanshan District in Linyi had the highest PAR%, while highest RR was in the Yicheng District in Zaozhuang.

Conclusion

There were significant space-time clusters of infant measles in Shandong over the study period. PAR% is an effective way to analyze multiple clusters from their application like RR. Interrupting measles circulation and maintaining routine coverage over 95% may be the only effective strategy to achieve measles elimination.  相似文献   

7.

Background and purpose

Systemic upregulation of inflammatory cytokines is characteristic of critical severe hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with pulmonary edema. Thus, immunomodulatory medicines such as steroids, including methylprednisolone, have been proposed to treat patients with severe HFMD in China, because it is postulated that inflammatory cytokines play a role in the development of severe complications. This study is to further investigate the inflammatory response in the relatively mild HFMD patients, and whether steroid treatment has a beneficial effect on the suppression of inflammation in HFMD patients.

Method

We measured the levels of 50 kinds of chemokines, cytokines, growth factors and soluble receptors in serum samples from control patients without HFMD and the HFMD patients with or without prior treatment of intravenous methylprednisolone.

Results

Our present study found that even relatively mild HFMD patients without central nervous system (CNS) complications had elevated serum levels of inflammatory cytokines, including interleukin (IL)-3, IL-6, IL-12p40, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, which suggested systemic inflammation. In contrast, these patients also have decreased levels of other serum biomarkers, including IL-1Ra, IL-8, IL-16, soluble ICAM-1, CXCL-1, and CCL27. The dysregulation of cytokine and chemokine expression may be involved in CNS complications and unbalanced circulating leukocytes in HFMD patients. Surprisingly, patients treated with methylprednisolone had no difference in the expression levels of HFMD-associated biomarkers instead had slightly increased levels of IL-17A, which was not associated with the occurrence of HFMD.

Conclusion

Whether steroid treatment has any beneficial effect on the prognosis of HFMD patients requires to be further investigated.  相似文献   

8.

Background

The increasing incidence of mental health problems among young people is a major concern in many Western countries. The causal mechanisms underlying these trends are not well established, but factors influenced by current societal changes ought to be implicated. Such factors include immigration and social adversity as well as the timing of taking on adult social roles (e.g. gainful employment, parenthood and own housing tenure). We therefore examined relationships between these factors and the risks of psychological distress as well as suicide attempts in young adults, with a focus on gender differences.

Methods

We conducted a population-based study including 10,081 individuals aged 18–29, recruited in 2002 and 2006 in Stockholm, Sweden. Data were collected by record linkage and questionnaires.

Results

Non-European immigrants had an increased risk of distress, and female non-European immigrants had a markedly higher risk of suicide attempts. Both early parenthood (≤24 years) and not being a parent, being a student and the lack of own housing tenure were associated with distress, but only in women. In both sexes, financial strain was associated with the increased risk of distress and suicide attempts, while unemployment was only associated with distress.

Conclusions

Immigration from outside Europe and social adversity are associated with mental health problems in young adults, especially females. Postponed transition into adulthood is associated with poor mental health in young women. These factors are influenced by current societal changes, and may have contributed to the increasing incidence of mental health problems among young people in Western countries.  相似文献   

9.

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is endemic in mainland China, accounting for 90% of total reported cases worldwide, and Jiangsu is one of the most severely affected provinces. In this study, the authors conducted GIS-based spatial analyses in order to determine the spatial distribution of the HFRS cases, identify key areas and explore risk factors for public health planning and resource allocation.

Methods

Interpolation maps by inverse distance weighting were produced to detect the spatial distribution of HFRS cases in Jiangsu from 2001 to 2011. Spatio-temporal clustering was applied to identify clusters at the county level. Spatial correlation analysis was conducted to detect influencing factors of HFRS in Jiangsu.

Results

HFRS cases in Jiangsu from 2001 to 2011 were mapped and the results suggested that cases in Jiangsu were not distributed randomly. Cases were mainly distributed in northeastern and southwestern Jiangsu, especially in Dafeng and Sihong counties. It was notable that prior to this study, Sihong county had rarely been reported as a high-risk area of HFRS. With the maximum spatial size of 50% of the total population and the maximum temporal size of 50% of the total population, spatio-temporal clustering showed that there was one most likely cluster (LLR = 624.52, P<0.0001, RR = 8.19) and one second-most likely cluster (LLR = 553.97, P<0.0001, RR = 8.25), and both of these clusters appeared from 2001 to 2004. Spatial correlation analysis showed that the incidence of HFRS in Jiangsu was influenced by distances to highways, railways, rivers and lakes.

Conclusion

The application of GIS together with spatial interpolation, spatio-temporal clustering and spatial correlation analysis can effectively identify high-risk areas and factors influencing HFRS incidence to lay a foundation for researching its pathogenesis.  相似文献   

10.

Background

No specific antiviral agent against hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is available for clinical practice today.

Objective

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Jinzhen oral solution in treating uncomplicated HFMD.

Methods

In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 399 children aged 1 to 7 years with laboratory confirmed HFMD were randomized to receive Jinzhen oral liquid or placebo 3 times daily for 7 days with a 3-day follow-up. The primary outcomes were time to the first disappearance of oral ulcers and vesicles on hand or foot and time to the first normalization of temperature (fever clearance).

Results

There were 199 children enrolling into the Jinzhen group including 79 with fever and 200 into the placebo group including 93 with fever. Jinzhen reduced the time to the first disappearance of oral ulcers and vesicles on hand or foot to 4.9 days (95% CI, 4.6 to 5.2 days), compared with 5.7 days (95% CI, 5.4 to 6.0 days) in the placebo group (P = 0.0036). The median time of fever clearance was shorter in the 79 children who received Jinzhen (43.41 hrs, 95% CI, 37.05 to 49.76) than that in the 93 children who received placebo (54.92 hrs, 95% CI, 48.16 to 61.68) (P = 0.0161). Moreover, Jinzhen reduced the risk of symptoms by 28.5% compared with placebo (HR, 0.7150, 95% CI, 0.5719 to 0.8940, P = 0.0032). More importantly, treatment failure rate was significantly lower in the Jinzhen group (8.04%) compared with that in the placebo group (15.00%) (P = 0.0434). The incidence of serious adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups (9 in Jinzhen group vs. 18 in placebo, P = 0.075).

Conclusions

Children with HFMD may benefit from Jinzhen oral liquid treatment as compared with placebo.

Trial Registration

Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (http://www.chictr.org/en/) ChiCTR-TRC-10000937  相似文献   

11.

Background

Data on incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) is scarce in the Middle East and little is known about the contribution of known risk factors in this area.

Methods

The incidence of CHD and the effect of modifiable risk factors were explored in 2889 men and 3803 women aged 30–74 years in the population based cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, during 1999–2010. Average population attributable fraction (aPAF) was calculated for any risk factor using direct method based on regression model.

Results

The crude incidence rate in men was about twice that in women (11.9 vs. 6.5 per 1000 person-years). The aPAF of hypertension, diabetes, high total cholesterol and low-HDL cholesterol was 9.4%, 6.7%, 7.3% and 6.1% in men and 17%, 16.6%, 12% and 4.6% in women respectively. This index was 7.0% for smoking in men. High risk age contributed to 42% and 22% of risk in men and women respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence in this population of Iran was comparable to those in the US in the seventies. Well known modifiable risk factors explained about 40% and 50% of CHD burden in men and women respectively. Aging, as a reflection of unmeasured or unknown risk factors, bears the most burden of CHD, especially in men; indicating more age-related health care is required.  相似文献   

12.

Background

Hand-food-mouth disease (HFMD) cases can be fatal. These cases develop rapidly, and it is important to predict the severity of HFMD from mild to fatal and to identify risk factors for mild HFMD. The objective of this study was to correlate the levels of serum inflammatory cytokines with HFMD severity.

Methods

This study was designed as a nested serial case-control study. The data collected included general information, clinical symptoms and signs, laboratory findings and serum cytokine levels.

Results

The levels of IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-α and IFN-γ in patients with severe HFMD were significantly higher than in mild patients during the 2nd to 5th day after disease onset. The levels of IL-4, IL-6, IL-10 and IFN-γ increased from the 2nd day to the 4th day and later decreased. The levels of TNF-α were high on the first two days and subsequently decreased. The changes of IL-10, TNF-α and IFN-γ in the controls were similar for all cases. The levels of IL-4, IL-6 and IL-17 in the controls were not significantly different with the progression of HFMD.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that the IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-α and IFN-γ levels correlate with HFMD severity.  相似文献   

13.

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem globally. Little is known about TB incidence in adolescents who are a proposed target group for new TB vaccines. We conducted a study to determine the TB incidence rates and risk factors for TB disease in a cohort of school-going adolescents in a high TB burden area in South Africa.

Methods

We recruited adolescents aged 12 to 18 years from high schools in Worcester, South Africa. Demographic and clinical information was collected, a tuberculin skin test (TST) performed and blood drawn for a QuantiFERON TB Gold assay at baseline. Screening for TB cases occurred at follow up visits and by surveillance of registers at public sector TB clinics over a period of up to 3.8 years after enrolment.

Results

A total of 6,363 adolescents were enrolled (58% of the school population targeted). During follow up, 67 cases of bacteriologically confirmed TB were detected giving an overall incidence rate of 0.45 per 100 person years (95% confidence interval 0.29–0.72). Black or mixed race, maternal education of primary school or less or unknown, a positive baseline QuantiFERON assay and a positive baseline TST were significant predictors of TB disease on adjusted analysis.

Conclusion

The adolescent TB incidence found in a high burden setting will help TB vaccine developers plan clinical trials in this population. Latent TB infection and low socio-economic status were predictors of TB disease.  相似文献   

14.
15.

Background

Anaemia is one of the significant public health problems among children in the world. Understanding risk factors of anaemia provides more insight to the nature and types of policies that can be put up to fight anaemia. We estimated the prevalence and risk factors of anaemia in a population-based, cross-sectional survey.

Methodology

Blood samples from 11,711 children aged between 6 months and 14 years were collected using a single-use, spring-loaded, sterile lancet to make a finger prick. Anaemia was measured based on haemoglobin concentration level. The generalized linear model framework was used to analyse the data, in which the response variable was either a child was anemic or not anemic.

Results

The overall prevalence of anaemia among the children in Kenya was estimated to be 28.8%. The risk of anaemia was found to decrease with age progressively with increase in each year of age; children below 1 year were at highest risk of anaemia. The risk of anaemia was significantly higher in male than female children. Mothers with secondary and above education had a protective effect on the risk of anaemia on their children. Malaria diagnosis status of a child was positively associated with risk anaemia.

Conclusion

Controlling co-morbidity of malaria and improving maternal knowledge are potential options for reducing the burden of anaemia.  相似文献   

16.

Background

Low birth weight (LBW) is a major public health problem in many developing countries, especially so in India. Although we do not know all the causes of LBW, maternal and environmental factors appear to be significant risk factors in its occurrence.

Objectives

To know the factors affecting the birth weight of a newborn and to estimate the prevalence of LBW.

Methods

The present study was carried out amongst 1138 pregnant women and their newborns residing in area covered by Kinaye Primary Health Centre in rural Karnataka, India. The study was conducted from 1st June 2008 to 31st December 2009.

Results

The mean birth weight of newborns was 2.6 kg with a range of 1.2 to 3.8 kg. The prevalence of LBW was 22.9%. Among the studied risk factors, 25 of them were significantly associated with the birth weight of a newborn on univariate logistic regression analysis. Maternal education [Odds Ratio (OR) 3.2], exposure to passive smoking [OR 2.3], age at first pregnancy ≥25 years [OR 3.6], birth interval <2 years [OR 2.4], previous history of LBW baby [OR 3.3], weight gain ≤4 kg during pregnancy [OR 7.0], maternal weight at last week of gestation ≤45 kg [OR 2.3], pregnancy induced hypertension [OR 3.3], high risk pregnancy [OR 3.6] and late antenatal registration [OR 3.6] emerged as significant risk factors on multivariate analysis.

Conclusion

The problem of LBW is multidimensional, and hence, we need an integrated approach incorporating medical, social, economical and educational measures to address this issue.  相似文献   

17.

Background

Rwanda reported significant reductions in malaria burden following scale up of control intervention from 2005 to 2010. This study sought to; measure malaria prevalence, describe spatial malaria clustering and investigate for malaria risk factors among health-centre-presumed malaria cases and their household members in Eastern Rwanda.

Methods

A two-stage health centre and household-based survey was conducted in Ruhuha sector, Eastern Rwanda from April to October 2011. At the health centre, data, including malaria diagnosis and individual level malaria risk factors, was collected. At households of these Index cases, a follow-up survey, including malaria screening for all household members and collecting household level malaria risk factor data, was conducted.

Results

Malaria prevalence among health centre attendees was 22.8%. At the household level, 90 households (out of 520) had at least one malaria-infected member and the overall malaria prevalence for the 2634 household members screened was 5.1%. Among health centre attendees, the age group 5–15 years was significantly associated with an increased malaria risk and a reported ownership of ≥4 bednets was significantly associated with a reduced malaria risk. At the household level, age groups 5–15 and >15 years and being associated with a malaria positive index case were associated with an increased malaria risk, while an observed ownership of ≥4 bednets was associated with a malaria risk-protective effect. Significant spatial malaria clustering among household cases with clusters located close to water- based agro-ecosystems was observed.

Conclusions

Malaria prevalence was significantly higher among health centre attendees and their household members in an area with significant household spatial malaria clustering. Circle surveillance involving passive case finding at health centres and proactive case detection in households can be a powerful tool for identifying household level malaria burden, risk factors and clustering.  相似文献   

18.

Background

Previous studies have examined physical risk factors in relation to functional health, but less work has focused on the protective role of psychological and social factors. We examined the individual and joint protective contribution of control beliefs, social support and physical exercise to changes in functional health, beyond the influence of health status and physical risk factors in middle-aged and older adults. Given that functional health typically declines throughout adulthood, it is important to identify modifiable factors that can be implemented to maintain functioning, improve quality of life, and reduce disability.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a national longitudinal study, Midlife in the United States (MIDUS), with assessments in 1995–1996 and 2004–2006, and 3,626 community-residing adults, aged 32 to 84, were included in the analyses. Functional health (Physical Functioning subscale of the SF-36) and protective factors were measured at both occasions. While controlling for socio-demographic, health status, and physical risk factors (large waist circumference, smoking, and alcohol or drug problems), a composite of the three protective variables (control beliefs, social support, and physical exercise) at Time 1 was significantly related to functional health change. The more of these factors at Time 1, the better the health maintenance over 10 years. Among middle-aged and older adults, declines in health were significantly reduced with an increased number of protective factors.

Conclusion/Significance

Age-related declines in health were reduced among those with more protective factors up to a decade earlier in life. Modifiable psychological, social, and physical protective factors, individually and in the aggregate, are associated with maintenance of functional health, beyond the damaging effects of physical risk factors. The results are encouraging for the prospect of developing interventions to promote functional health and for reducing public health expenditures for physical disability in later life.  相似文献   

19.

Background

Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk.

Objective

This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe.

Methods

A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively.

Results

On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults.

Conclusion

Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by reducing the health system''s dependency on OOP payments and providing more financial risk protection.  相似文献   

20.

Background

The incidence rate of active tuberculosis (TB) disease in the Canadian Territory of Nunavut has shown a rising trend over the past 10 years. In 2010 it was 60 times greater than the national incidence rate. The objective of the Taima (translates to “stop” in Inuktitut) TB study was to implement and evaluate a public health campaign to enhance existing TB prevention efforts in Nunavut.

Methods

A TB awareness campaign followed by a door-to-door screening campaign was carried out in Iqaluit, Nunavut. The aim of the campaign was to raise awareness about TB, and to provide in-home screening and treatment for people living in residential areas at high risk for TB. Screening was based on geographic location rather than on individual risk factors.

Results

During the general awareness campaign an increase in the number of people who requested TB testing at the local public health clinic was observed. However, this increase was not sustained following cessation of the awareness campaign. Targeted TB screening in high risk residential areas in Iqaluit resulted in 224 individuals having TSTs read, and detection of 42 previously unidentified cases of latent TB, (overall yield of 18.8% or number needed to screen = 5.3). These cases of latent TB infection (LTBI) were extra cases that had not been picked up by traditional screening practices (34% relative increase within the community). This resulted in a 33% relative increase in the completion of LTBI treatment within the community. The program directly and indirectly identified 5/17 new cases of active TB disease in Iqaluit during the study period (29.5% of all incident cases).

Conclusions

While contact tracing investigations remain a cornerstone of TB prevention, additional awareness, screening, and treatment programs like Taima TB may contribute to the successful control of TB in Aboriginal communities.  相似文献   

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